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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Aaron Williams — October 9, 2012 @ 11:23 am
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz for Week 5! And what a week it was! This week we will attempt to break the record for most consecutive fantasy football recaps authored by an Aaron Williams. Let’s get right to it:
Cardinals – Rams
With many QBs struggling, injured, or on bye, many fantasy owners may be looking for a temporary fill-in. Kevin Kolb could be that guy. The Cards are doing well and Kolb is a big part of that, with a 60.5 completion rating and seven touchdowns. He’s no world-beater but could be a nice fill-in for you in the right matchup. Ryan Williams is now done for the year and Beanie Well is out until late November, so look for the Cards to trade for a running back soon. For the Rams, the perennially-too-highly-drafted Steven Jackson ran for 76 yards on 18 carries, which is still not enough to be worth your while.
Dolphins – Bengals
Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush make up a true running back committee, with 48 an 29 yards, respectively, and a touchdown each. Either player would be great if he were playing alone, but as it is, the timeshare makes me uncomfortable starting either one. Brian Hartline again led the Dolphins passing attack—but this time with much more realistic numbers. He had five receptions, but so did fullback Charles Clay. Caveat emptor.
The story of this game for the Bengals was Jermaine Gresham’s 60 yards. Gresham is a borderline starter and definite fill-in. With future injuries inevitable for starting tight ends, Gresham should be stashed from the waiver wire or traded for cheaply before he does something great and becomes unavailable.
 Cassel's injury will have Brady Quinn starting in Week 6. Ravens – Chiefs
This is the first of a couple of games that had very little fantasy value, as all of the scoring involved field goals. Rice and Charles both operated under their MO: running for high yardage totals but not touchdowns. Also, Shane Draughn got 12 carries, and he’s likely to fill the Peyton Hillis role. If Draughn continues on, he may prove Hillis superfluous. Don’t expect Matt Cassel (concussion) to play Week 6. Brady Quinn will be under center when the Chiefs travel to Tampa.
Sportsmanship
Speaking of Kansas City’s quarterback woes, Chiefs fans booed Cassel and cheered for his injury as he was knocked out after a legally vicious hit. The most effective illustration of my own opinion on the matter was quietly noted by Chiefs offensive lineman Eric Winston.
“We are athletes. We are not gladiators… It’s sickening. I want every fan to know it. We have a lot of problems as a society if people think that’s okay.”
I encourage you to Google his entire comment and take it in—especially if you happen to be a Chiefs fan or broadcast animosity towards any other fellow man. Many times, especially in terms of fantasy football, players are seen as objects instead of humans. I hope we can all agree that this perspective is ghoulish; we should all cheer the big hits, but not the injuries.
Browns – Giants
If the Browns could be guaranteed a day like this from Weeden (291 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) each weekend, they could expect one of their best seasons ever. At some point these Browns are going to have to stop trading down and get some elite talent on their team, and maybe Trent Richardson is a good sign of the future.
The Giants passed the ultimate test this week as they were able to play offense and maintain their talent level against the Browns. Typically, Cleveland is able to sap the strength and will of opponents and force them to play some kind of penalty-laden mud fight. Until something changes, start ALL your Giants!
Eagles – Steelers
The Eagles broke an NFL record after Week 4, winning their first three games with the lowest margin of victory in history (+1, +1, +2). Now, after a 2-point loss to the Steelers, the Eagles have finally felt the numbing loss of giving away a football game. Michael Vick threw no interceptions but did have three fumbles and lost two of them. At this point, these Eagles are walking a thin line to fantasy sit-worthiness. Only LeSean McCoy had a great day for the Eagles.
For the Steelers, Big Ben and the passing attack had a mediocre game plagued by drops, but Mendenhall was excellent rushing the ball in split time. Be wary if the Steelers go back to him full time though, as Mendy is a very old 25 and could see more injury with a heavy workload. If Isaac Redman continues to spell him, he should be quite effective in fantasy and on the field.
Falcons – Redskins
Matt Ryan (345 yds, 2 TDs) was once again fantastic and should be started every week, as the coaching staff has finally done what they have been promising for years and taken off the reins. Tony Gonzalez made the most of the Falcons’ passing success with 123 yards and a touchdown, continuing his epic 16th season.
It was a scary game for Redskins fans as RGIII went down with a concussion; and I assure you no one was cheering, as Griffin was apparently unable to recall the score of the game or the current quarter. Yikes! It seems the effects of the concussion have worn off, However, and the electric RGIII should be back in action on the field and on your team in Week 6.
Seahawks – Panthers
The second un-fantastic football game of the week was played in Carolina. It seems the book is out on Cam Newton, and his play has decreased because of it. Fantasy owners would be wise to keep this in mind for Andrew Luck and especially Robert Griffin III next year.
Bears – Jaguars
The Bears defense has five pick-sixes through as many games and are well on pace to break the NFL record of nine held by the 1961 San Diego Chargers. The Bears DST should be started at all costs, and at this point I would consider trading someone like Marshawn Lynch or Alfred Morris for them; I don’t see any reason this defense will stop its ball-hawking strategy and success. Forget this game if you’re playing a Jag, as it likely wasn’t a good indicator of their performance—unless you’re starting Cecil Shorts.
Titans – Vikings
Chris Johnson is another bad game closer to being tradable for the Bears defense, too. The Vikings are playing way above their heads right now—but this is unacceptable for CJ2K. He was 15 for 24; however, considering one of those runs went for nine yards, the rest of his carries came to 1.07 yards per carry. The Vikings are now 4-1 and Peterson and Harvin should be started in all formats as long as this team is flying high. Ponder is another promising bye-week fill-in as well.
Broncos – Patkowskis
The Broncos are actually not playing that well. The Patriots controlled this game from the onset, and the Broncos simply defended their honor by scoring late in garbage time. Here’s the great thing about fantasy though: none of that matters! The Broncos getting down and fighting back through the air will lead to Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Willis McGahee, and Eric Decker having great fantasy days and winning matches for your team. Wise fantasy owners of said Broncos should be actively rooting against Denver.
This is the best Pats running game we’ve seen in some time. Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden, and Danny Woodhead all performed admirably, but Ridley especially proved his fantasy effectiveness and could be great trade bait right now. From an owner looking through Pats-colored glasses, you could probably get yourself a RB who’s much better than Ridley.
Bills – 49ers
At this point, any offense playing Buffalo should be started with gusto. The Bills have the dubious honor of breaking multiple team and NFL records for being a miserable defense. They broke a team record for most yards given up (580) last week to the Patriots and followed that up by breaking it again, allowing 621 yards to the 49ers on Sunday! On top of that, the Bills became the first team since the NFL–AFL merger to give up 300 yards passing and rushing in the same game and also became the first to give up 550 or more yards in consecutive games. It was truly a defensive stenchfest of epic proportions.
For the 49ers, it was obviously a fantastic day. But be warned that this won’t be the norm. This is not a 45-point team, and they likely won’t eclipse 25 points in most games this season. Don’t get sucked into an Alex Smith trade either, as there are plenty of cheaper and equally valuable options out there.
Chargers – Saints
Both quarterbacks had fantastic nights, but this one belonged to Brees. Floyd and Meachem looked great for the Chargers, and Colston and Henderson swung a lot of fantasy games with elite performances. Even Greg Camarillo got involved, catching four passes for 44 yards. The only rusher worth his weight on Sunday night was Ryan Mathews, who rushed 12 times for 80 yards—and a hyper-athletic touchdown—and tacked on six receptions for 59 yards.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On Brees having to crane his neck to see over his offensive linemen:
“It’s a six-year-old trying to see over Dad to throw a pass or something—but this six-year-old is pretty good!”
Collinsworth certainly has an interesting way of putting things, but my own thoughts on Brees are best summed up in the following hotly-contested piece from last year’s Tuesday Morning Buzz.
Brees for MVP!
I have made no bones about my infatuation with Drew Brees or about making outlandish statements of opinion. Last year I argued that Drew Brees was just as legitimate of a candidate for MVP as Aaron Rodgers and is the best quarterback playing today. This year I will argue one step further: I believe that Drew Brees is the best quarterback the NFL has ever seen. Consider what Brees has done in his limited play time: Most passing yards in a single season (5,476), most seasons with 5,000+ yards, Highest completion percentage in a season (71.2), most seasons with a 70 percent completion percentage, most completions in a season (468), Most 400+ completion seasons, most consecutive 4,000-yard and 30+ touchdown seasons (4), Most games with 5+ touchdowns, and dozens more. I highly suggest anyone skeptical of my opinion to view his full list of accomplishments. Oh, and guess who is leading the league in yards and touchdowns through five weeks?
This week, however, Drew Brees broke one of the records that, as commentators love to say, “I thought would never be broken” in Johnny Unitas’s streak of 47 games with a touchdown pass. It should be said that Johnny U played primarily in a rushing league, which intensifies how epic that record was then. But as no other quarterback is really close to that number (Brady is next at 37), I don’t view today’s passing league as having anything to do with Brees’ domination.
In his pursuit of this record, Brees has used his great accuracy to burn through passing yardage stats (fastest to reach 40,000 yards in a career as well as fastest to reach 3,000, 4,000, and 5,000 yards in a single season). Just to use the stats presented during the game, Brees broke Unitas’s record of 1,302 completions on 1,891 total passes (68.8%) compared to Unitas’s 697 completions on 1298 passes (53.7%). In addition, Brees threw 114 touchdowns with 50 picks while Unitas threw 102 touchdowns and 61 picks over the same span.
Finally, Brees’ leadership quality and personality traits cannot be questioned. He is a fiery competitor, a fierce teammate, a consummate professional, and carries the entire city of New Orleans on his back. There simply is no category in which another quarterback has ever been better. Now, if your requirement for “greatest quarterback ever” is Super Bowl wins, then he likely will not meet your expectations; but in efficiency, skill, or any other quarterback trait, Brees cannot be definitively outmatched and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Sadly, I don’t believe most of the NFL fanbase realizes the greatness we’re seeing.
Texans – Jets
The story of the Texans offense in Week 5 is the story of Arian Foster and Owen Daniels. We’re used to Foster (152 yds, 1 TD), but it’s been a while since Owen Daniels put his targets to good use. If he’s able to maintain the level of production this Texans offense can give him, he can easily crack the top 5 at his position this year. For the Jets, this seems to be a lost season. They started slow in the preseason, had a fantastic Week 1 win against the Bills’ pitiful defense, and then went on a slew of unimpressive performances up to, at least, Monday night. I can’t imagine there are many New York Jets on fantasy teams, but if you’re hanging on to someone like Shonn Greene, I’d find other options.
And that’s it! For Week 6, I believe you should maximize matchup decisions and bye-week fill-ins using players from the following teams: Falcons, Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Texans, Broncos, and Chargers. Feel free to ask me questions in the comments here, but please also ask them/follow me on Twitter!
By: Dave Stringer — October 5, 2012 @ 5:54 pm
1. It has been written about plenty but we will chime in here anyway. It seems only a matter of time before the Jets make a switch at the quarterback position. Incumbent starter Mark Sanchez has been nothing short of awful after dismantling Buffalo in Week 1 but it turns out that was hardly a monumental achievement as the Bills ranked a lowly 23rd in pass defense despite facing the Chiefs and Browns in two of their four contests. With the team’s rushing attack struggling and Santonio Holmes, the team’s top playmaker on offense, out for the season and a cast of journeymen and unproven rookie 2nd round pick Stephen Hill on the depth chart at wide receiver, the Jets will be forced to run more often. We expect the Jets coaching staff will determine that backup Tim Tebow gives the team the best chance to win over the remainder of the season. If he is available on your league’s waiver wire and you need a QB2 for your fantasy roster, grab him a week early rather than waiting a week too long and missing out.
 Greene: Off to another slow start. 2. Sticking with the Jets backfield, running back Shonn Greene is off to another slow start in 2012. After a solid performance in Week 1, Greene has struggled to find running room over the last three weeks, gaining just 97 yards on 41 carries and failing to top the 40-yard mark. While the Jets have faced some strong run defenses to open the season including the Steelers and 49ers, those numbers are disappointing and New York has increased backup Bilal Powell’s workload, particularly in games where the Jets are playing from behind. Greene’s contract expires at the end of the season and it does not appear the team is any hurry to offer him an extension. Given his struggles and contract situation, it won’t be a surprise if the Jets have a new starting backfield by midseason.
3. Another running back that has struggled after a solid start to the season is Buccaneers rookie 1st round pick Doug Martin. Expected to log extended playing time, Martin saw his role reduced this past week after a pair of subpar efforts in Weeks 2 and 3. In his last three games, Martin has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry on his 47 attempts. Worse yet, he has failed to be a target in the passing game with just four receptions during those contests and lost goal line touches to LeGarrette Blount. Thought to be a solid RB2 entering the season, Martin is shaping up as an RB3.
4. With their win last night over Arizona, the Rams went over .500 for the first time since the 2006 season (not a typo, folks, they have been that bad). While their win over the Cardinals was big news, even bigger was the news that the team had renegotiated running back Steven Jackson’s contract to allow him to void the final year of his deal in 2013. With the Rams looking to reload at the running back position and having used 2nd and 7th round picks in this year’s draft on Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson, Jackson will need to have an impressive year to remain with the team in 2013.
5. Sticking with the Rams, the news that slot receiver Danny Amendola will miss six to seven weeks with a dislocated clavicle is a devastating development for the team’s passing attack and quarterback Sam Bradford. Clearly the team’s best receiver and Bradford’s go to guy, Amendola had caught 31 passes for 351 yards over the first four weeks of the season. Look for Steve Smith or Austin Pettis to take over his role and if one takes over the job outright, they are worth taking a flyer on in deeper leagues.
6. The word out of Green Bay is that the Packers brass has been pleased with the play of running back Cedric Benson. The question is why? He is averaging 3.6 yards per carry while finding the end zone just once in four games. What he has done is avoid coughing up the ball, fumbling just once on a play that did not result in a turnover. While there is plenty of evidence to suggest Benson will hold on to the lead role in the Packers backfield, those desperate for running back depth could stash Alex Green or James Stark on the bench in the hopes that the Packers determine they need more from their lead back or Benson rediscovers the fumbling issues that plagued his last season in Cincinnati.
7. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan compared rookie running back Alfred Morris to Terrell Davis this week and said he had a “big time” future. In past seasons, you would figure it would be any minute before Morris found himself on the inactive list. However, with Roy Helu on injured reserve, Evan Royster struggling and unable stay healthy and only Ryan Grant also on the roster, it appears that Shanahan will likely lean on Morris for much of the 2012 season. This might just be the year that the Shanny curse at running back doesn’t materialize.
8. With Santonio Holmes out for the year, there has been plenty of speculation as to which wide receiver on the roster will benefit from his absence. Rookie Stephen Hill, 2nd year player Jeremy Kerley and veteran journeyman Chaz Schilens figure to earn the majority of the playing time at wide receiver but none are expected to emerge as a solid, go to receiver for the team’s quarterbacks. If you are looking for the player to reap the benefit the most from Holmes’ absence, look no further than tight end Dustin Keller. While Keller has missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, he should emerge as the team’s main weapon in the short and intermediate passing game and should be plenty motivated given his impending free agent status.
9. Broncos running back Willis McGahee was expected to see his production decrease in 2012 after a stellar campaign in 2011 when he rushed for 1,199 yards during his first year as a Bronco. However, he has benefitted from a running back depth chart that has suffered through injury, ineffectiveness and fumbling issues to continue to get a healthy number of touches each week as the team’s lead back. With 325 yards on the ground in four games, McGahee is on pace to eclipse his production from last season and while his current projected total of 1,300 rushing yards seems unrealistic, nobody on the team’s roster seems set to eat into his playing time in a big way at the moment. That makes him a great target since whoever added him to their fantasy roster likely picked him up as a RB3.
By: Dave Stringer — October 2, 2012 @ 1:02 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Ryan, Falcons
Okay, this one’s obvious but there was a lack of suitable candidates so this is recognizing that Ryan is the real deal as a fantasy starter. The Falcons are chucking it plenty even when they play soft run defenses, putting Ryan on pace to throw for over 4,500 yards and 44 touchdowns. That’s upper tier QB1 territory.
Moving Down
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
Seven picks and three lost fumbles and we’re only four games into the season. If Cassel continues to be a turnover machine and the Chiefs continue their losing ways (currently sitting 1-3), it won’t be long before Cassel finds himself riding the pine.
Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
Gabbert has had his moments this season but it said a lot when he couldn’t produce this week against a Bengals secondary that was missing its four top cornerbacks. With Leon Hall, Nate Clements, Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen out, Gabbert threw for just 186 yards. After a solid performance in Week 1 against the Vikings, Gabbert has thrown for 394 yards over Jacksonville’s last three games. That type of production will have him heading to the bench at some point in 2012.
 Stafford is the 14th-ranked fantasy QB after four games. Matthew Stafford, Lions
Opposing defenses are forcing Detroit to march the ball down the field and the Lions and Stafford have not adjusted. With just three touchdown passes on the season, Stafford is going to have to have a monster performance over the final 12 games to match the 41 touchdown passes he threw in 2011. That seems unlikely.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said this week that backup Matt Flynn won’t start because his elbow isn’t ready to handle a full week of practice. That doesn’t mean Wilson won’t be on a short leash during this week’s matchup against the Panthers.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Chris Johnson, Titans
He’s alive! Sure – it was in a blowout loss. But Johnson looked good, gaining 141 yards on 25 carries against the Texans. CJ2K is probably still a buy low but not quite as bad as he was last week when I was offered his services for Darren Sproles and declined.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Steelers have averaged a very un-Steeler like 65 yards per game on the ground with Mendenhall out of the lineup. He’s apparently ready and he vaults to the top of the team’s depth chart at running back provided he is healthy. Look for that to happen this week.
Branden Bolden, Patriots
With 137 yards and a touchdown this week on just 16 carries, Bolden has to be Moving Up. Will he be joining my roster in any of the leagues that I am in? Probably not. Let’s remember that Danny Woodhead was claimed in many leagues based on the 16 touches he had in Week 3 and this week he touched the ball twice.
Michael Turner, Falcons
Sell high, folks! When a former stud running back who can’t catch the ball has seen his role decrease to the point where he is getting 15 touches a game pads his point total with a 60 yard touchdown pass, the first of his nine-year career, against a sad sack defense and notches 23 points on the day, you thank the fantasy gods and sell high.
Moving Down
Ryan Williams, Cardinals
When the Cardinals placed Chris Wells on injured reserve, everybody went gaga over Williams. But you didn’t see him Moving Up last week, did ya? Outside of Williams chalking up some garbage time points against the Eagles in Week 3 (seven rushes for 62 yards in the fourth quarter of the Cardinals blow out win), he’s been nothing short of awful. Take away the garbage time points and Williams has rushed 69 yards on 37 carries. No, that’s not a typo. Touchdowns – zero. Receiving yards – 39.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
It has been tough sledding thus far in 2012 for Run-DMC, as he has failed to top 2.6 yards per carry in three of his four games. There has been plenty of speculation as to whether the team’s new blocking scheme is to blame but really, does it matter when he’s averaging 9.3 FPts/G, a far cry from the 15.3 he put up in 2011.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
He’s averaging 3.9 yards a pop on the season and just 2.6 over his last three games. His receiving chops are helping out (16 for 114 on the season) but if the Cowboys offensive line doesn’t improve, Murray is clearly headed for RB2 status.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
It’s a timeshare for the time being in San Diego with Mathews splitting carries with the legendary Jackie Battle. And no, Mathews isn’t the one getting the goal line looks.
Doug Martin, Bucs
Martin’s lackluster performance over the past three weeks (3.2 yards per carry) resulted in LeGarrette Blount getting his most extensive work of the season this past week, including some goal line carries.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
Moving Down one week. Moving Up the next. Sure – he dropped a ton of balls but he also showed us on Monday night just how good he can be if he ever gets rid of the concentration lapses. Bryant caught eight of 13 targets for 105 yards but he could have come close to 200 yards without the drops.
Brian Hartline, Dolphins
Who knew Hartline was this good? Not me, that’s for sure. After failing to top 100 receiving yards during his first 45 games in the league, Hartline has topped the century mark twice in the last three weeks, including his 12-reception, 253-yard, one touchdown performance this week against the Cardinals. Let’s not go overboard here but I’m ready to make the call that Hartline is a mid-tier to low end WR3 over the balance of the season.
Andre Roberts, Cardinals
Four games, four touchdowns for Roberts to go along with 15 receptions for 229 yards. The Cardinals like Roberts although this Moving Up is tempered by the knowledge that rookie 1st round pick Michael Floyd was targeted eight times this week.
Domenik Hixon, Giants
I guess after Hixon’s six-reception, 114-yard performance this week it is safe to conclude that Ramses Barden isn’t the Giants third wide receiver after all.
Moving Down
Laurent Robinson, Jaguars
It appears that Robinson suffered his second concussion of the season this week. Not good.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants
Can’t seem to get healthy.
Greg Jennings, Packers
Ditto.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Greg Olsen, Panthers
Our preseason preview made note of the fact that Olsen was AWOL from the Panthers offense for the last few games of the 2011 season. That’s ancient history. With 21 targets over the last two games and 31 on the season, Olsen has emerged as a lower tier TE1. Better yet, he’s on a roll over his last two games with 13 receptions for 187 yards and a score.
Moving Down
Jermichael Finley, Packers
Seriously, folks. Will Finley ever break out? He had another okay game this week catching four of his five targets (the third week in a row that has happened) for a ho-hum 54 yards. With Greg Jennings sidelined, Finley’s owners need to ask themselves why he hasn’t been a bigger part of the Packers offense and whether it’s time to see what they can get for the talented yet enigmatic Green Bay tight end, who is on pace to finish the season with 748 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 12:41 pm
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 4 is all about finding patterns and things you can count on throughout the bye weeks. To that end, much of this article is about what you can take away and what you should ignore. And now, a moment of silence for the much maligned Replacements.
Pain Heals. Chicks Dig Scars. Glory Lasts Forever.
So, after our glorious debate last week, the NFL caved and gave the regular officials their pension and ridiculous pay increase. Imagine this, not only do you get to keep your pension of yesteryear, you get a 30 percent pay increase over the next five years. Can you imagine a 30 percent pay increase in five years? That is a CEO level of bump. Such is the world of the NFL! However, it is great to have the regulars back again, so that at least the teams and players can focus on playing the game and not on trying to rattle rookie refs. My favorite moment with The Replacement was the ludicrously named Don King and his JFK-esque manner of speech. What was your favorite ref-related instance from the first three weeks?
Browns–Ravens
I’ve got to start this week by eating a little crow. The Browns are better than I thought they were. With high fantasy points from their star RB and WR, as well as confident play from their quarterback, the Browns looked like they just may not be the worst winless team in football. Start Richardson and maybe Little, but relying on Cleveland still terrifies me. The Ravens showed you nothing new this week, as Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, and Anquan Boldin played exactly as you expected they would when you drafted them. Make sure Torrey Smith is owned in your league, as that spotlight is not going away any time soon.
 Mad man, Matt Ryan. Panthers–Falcons
This week, Cam Newton put forth a statistical spectacular of Vick-like proportions, as though saying to fantasy owners, “Look baby, I know I hurt you last week, and I know you’re mad, but let me make it up to you.” At this point, I’d take the preacher’s son over Tom Patkowski. The Falcons have finally become a consistent offensive powerhouse, as they have been talking about for four years. Not only is Matt Ryan throwing the ball like a mad man, but White and Jones are becoming the NFL’s wide receiver tandem of the year. Don’t worry about Jones’ one catch this game; he’ll bounce back next week against a Redskins defense that will contain Roddy White.
Patkowskis–Bills
The Pats were pissed. They’d been looking downright human the past couple of weeks, and that doesn’t sit too well with a team that considers themselves the cream of the crop—and the Bills only made matters worse by jumping out to a 21-7 lead into the third quarter. Then, with five straight possessions ending in touchdowns, the Pats came back and took a victory. I’m not sure how much I would trust Brandon Bolden, or Wes Welker for that matter, to repeat that performance again this year, but Stevan Ridley earned my vote to start the rest of the season. The Bills aren’t world beaters, but the rookie looked impressive.
For the Bills, it’s an impossible-to-win guessing game as to which one of their WRs will approach 100 yards from week to week, so I would generally stay away if you can. However, I would consider starting Spiller, even in the presence of Fred Jackson. Spiller’s injury is the only thing that kept his touches down in this game.
Vikings–Lions
How ‘bout them Minnesota Vikings? With good fantasy days from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin, whose numbers were helped by a classic return for a touchdown, the Vikings are challenging for a division title (which they won’t win). However, as long as a team thinks they’re good, they’ll continue to play excellently until someone deflates them. And since they’ve recently won the toughest game on their schedule (49ers), it may be some time before the Vikings fall into fantasy insignificance.
For Detroit, it was good to see Matthew Stafford return and throw 51 passes for 319 yards, plus running back Mikel Leshoure rushed with every meaningful carry in the game—a pattern likely to repeat for higher rewards. Leshoure may be easy to trade for with your flex WR, and he is likely to be a much better value.
Titans–Texans
In the wake of an injury to Jake Locker early on, Chris Johnson flourished under the quarterback play of Matt Hasselbeck. Amazingly, when a competent quarterback stands behind them, the offensive line suddenly performs and Johnson suddenly has legs again. This likely has to do with defenses respecting Matt Hasselbeck, but that should provide a bit of breathing room, and as we all know, a little bit of room is all Johnson needs to take it all the way.
For the Texans, the only real news is the resurgence of Owen Daniels. Just in the nick of time, too, as he should fill in nicely for TEs on bye. Six receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown is no fluke.
Chargers–Chiefs
If you ever need a replacement defense—say, if you own the now Revis-less Jets—the Chargers are always a good choice. They never seem all that dominant, even when they are first in the league, as they were a couple of years ago, but they will likely be a top-10 DST by season’s end. Also, look for Ryan Mathews to come back and be a workhorse in the coming weeks—that is, if he can stay on the field.
The Chiefs have exactly two players worth owning in 10-team leagues: Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. Both played highly important roles in the Chiefs’ limited success on Sunday, and both are automatic starts most weeks. If you picked Charles at value, you should feel extremely confident in the explosive back’s play for the rest of the year.
49ers–Jets
What is there to say that hasn’t already been said by these San Francisco 49ers? The defense is fantastic, the offense is good enough, and their fantasy value is a razor-thin line between not-enough and decent. Essentially, Frank Gore is matchup-proof and should be started at all times, with Kendall Hunter waiting in the wings for his inevitable fall.
For the Jets, is Greg McElroy the best passer on this team? I hate to be so terrible to Mark Sanchez, who just got paid and has a great record, but I’ve liked McElroy since college. I’ve spoken at length on how a quarterback’s brain is more important than his arm or legs in modern-age football, and this is why Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are able to play at the level they do. Not to mention his Rhodes scholarship finalist status, McElroy scored a 48 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test (twice the average score of quarterbacks) and was sadly underwritten.
Why do I bring this up? In my opinion, the Jets are sitting on a goldmine in McElroy and will someday be rewarded if the Sanchez–Tebow combination ever gets run out of town. I don’t know what will happen if this team continues to flounder, but if they give McElroy a real starter’s chance, I believe he will change the concept and the skill level of the Jets offense on the field. He’s definitely worth a pickup if the Jets continue to flame out.
Seahawks–Rams
How sad is the state of affairs for these offenses when there is but one player between both teams who is worth starting each week? Marshawn Lynch broke free from the bonds of Buffalo and has since electrified the Seattle fanbase, but otherwise there are no fantasy studs in this matchup. “But what about Steven Jackson?” you ask. Jackson has taken 59 carries for 195 yards (3.3 yards per carry) and has scored as many touchdowns as Marshall Faulk this season. Don’t let the name and the NFL Shop commercials fool you—Stevan Ridley will end this season with more points.
Dolphins–Cardinals
In Training Camp Hype, yours truly stated that, “Brian Hartline is the best thing [the Dolphins] have got talent-wise, and that is certainly damning with faint praise.” I have known that the wide receiver was good since his Ohio State days. However, he has always been good for a few big catches per year but has never been an every-week starter. We shall see if he can turn that corner and become a consistent target for Ryan Tannehill. Either way, he is definitely worth a bench spot—at least as trade bait—in case he turns out.
Another DST unit in the same underrated and ugly class as the San Diego Chargers is that of the Arizona Cardinals. They are so good up front that they can sometimes pressure the quarterback with only two down linemen. They don’t always hold off a high point total, but they’re usually good for some defensive bonus points. And in the manner of Brian Hartline, I would also consider stashing Ryan Williams, just in case the Cardinals do the sensible thing and feature him.
Raiders–Broncos
What? The Raiders played a sloppy football game and got forced to play out of their comfort zone in a big divisional matchup on the road versus Peyton Manning? You don’t say! I hope you started your Broncos, as Manning, McGahee, Thomas, and Decker all did very well for themselves, and should continue to produce when the matchup is favorable enough. This was a game that went exactly as the Broncos drew it up. Get to a lead early to reduce the risk of Darren McFadden, and then pummel the weak Raiders passing offense with lockdown D. Raiders fans should have heart, though, as McFadden and Sebastian “White Trash Awesome” Janikowski will continue to be startable in all formats.
Bengals–Jaguars
BenJarvus Green-Ellis owners everywhere must have ripped their hair out when Andy Dalton scored the only rushing touchdown of the game for either side. Sadly, Green-Ellis’ stat line looks a little flat with 82 yards and zero touchdowns. I still maintain that he will end the year ranked far higher than he was drafted due to the Bengals red-zone rushing tendencies, but this definitely put a hamper on his week. He should fare better next week when they play the Dolphins in Cincy.
Marcedes Lewis, similar to Martellus Bennett, is a low-value waiver-wire TE pickup. Perhaps you have Jermichael Finley or Jason Witten and are looking for a replacement until they get it together. If so, look no farther than Lewis, who has quietly had two excellent games this year. He’s definitely a matchup play, but TE is tough this year.
Saints–Packers
Drew Brees, last year’s rightful MVP according to yours truly, showed his mettle on Sunday, throwing for 446 yards, three touchdowns, and just a dash of hope for fantasy owners. Most of the scoring in this game has to do with the bad defensive play of both teams, and little to do with the power of either offense. Rest assured that Marques Colston probably has his best game behind him and should be shipped off to the highest bidder. Brees will not allow this team to quit on this season, so expect point production all year long from at least Brees and Graham.
A couple of interesting points for the Packers: James Jones believed in himself and filled in nicely for the oft-injured Greg Jennings. Perhaps those Jet Ski push-ups aren’t the best rehab option for a groin injury. Cedric Benson also showed up briefly and ran against the Saints’ miserably weak run defense. Around 85 yards and maybe a touchdown is about the best performance you can expect from Benson, who won’t get a lot of carries in a five-wide Packers offense.
Redskins–Buccaneers
I want to say that Alfred Morris has earned a role as a fantasy starter. However, the arrival of Ryan Grant may throw a wrench into those plans. If you drafted RGIII as the backup to any quarterback, sell your previous starter as quickly as possible. Griffin’s going to be just fine all season long and should produce staggering fantasy numbers. For the Buccaneers, Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount cannibalize far too much of each other’s game to make either anything more than a bye-week fill-in. The Bucs passing game is clicking, however, as Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson played excellent games on Sunday and should continue to produce for the remainder of the season.
Giants–Eagles
In Week 1, I brought to your attention the R.E. Shay quote, “Depend on the rabbit’s foot if you will, but remember it didn’t work for the rabbit,” after the Eagles managed a 1-point victory over the Cleveland Browns in a game rife with turnovers. This statement still holds true, as the Eagles won their third of four games this season by less than one field goal—thanks to a rare miss by Lawrence Tynes—and Michael Vick has been a one-man turnover machine (albeit he was clean this week).
This year, the Giants have found early success on the stat sheet and in the win column, which means one of two things: Either this will be Eli Manning’s best season to date, or the Giants will fizzle out by playing their best football early. Remember, this team has made their hay by turning it on late the past few years. Your Giants starters may become less valuable as the season wears on, so it would be prudent to keep a close eye on their momentum.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
This week, Jon Gruden is our resident Chris Collinsworth, with his bizarre and hilarious likening of Jay Cutler and Tony Romo to famous Hollywood Cowboys.
“God Bless Tony Romo—They need to change the words of this song!”
All of my frustration with Gruden’s berating of The Replacements last week was gone, as he related Cutler to my favorite spaghetti western character, Josey “Buzzards Gotta Eat Too” Wales. If you haven’t seen Clint Eastwood’s Josey Wales flick, do yourself a favor and check it out—it’s fantastic. If you didn’t catch Gruden’s pre-game, he also compared Tony Romo to John Wayne in stating, “This is the toughest Cowboy in Texas.”
Bears–Cowboys
I don’t see how someone could have written a script more telling of the storylines for these two teams. The Cowboys came out, at home, and threw away the game by throwing the ball to the other team. Those interceptions were all good plays by the defense on ruined routes by the Dallas wide receivers, but it will all be blamed on Tony Romo. However, Romo did end up cancelling out some turnovers with a touchdown throw early, and Kyle Orton helped the slow-starting Jason Witten save his fantasy day with a late touchdown. For the Bears, it was a good, but not great, offensive performance. Cutler had a modest stat line, and Brandon Marshall racked up some yardage and a touchdown on a busted play in garbage time. These Bears are for real if they can ever develop a consistent O-line. I’m looking to a strong remainder of the season from Forte, Cutler, and Marshall.
P.S. How weird and awesome was that Los Lonely Boys intro? I have no idea who they are, but I hope ESPN continues to make really cool region-pieces for all of their Monday Night Football games.
And that’s it! Week 4 is in the proverbial books and there was not much controversy to mar the actual football talk of the week. For Week 5, I believe you should maximize matchup decisions and bye-week fill-ins using players from the following teams: Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Chargers, and Texans. Feel free to ask me questions in the comments here or on my brand new Twitter account!
By: Dave Stringer — September 28, 2012 @ 1:41 pm
1. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was held without throwing a touchdown during this week’s Monday night loss to the Seahawks, marking the first time since Week 3 of the 2011 season that has happened. Green Bay has clearly failed to move the ball as consistently as they did last season and Rodgers currently sits as the 24th ranked fantasy quarterback. With plum matchups against the Saints and Colts on tap, the odds are that Rodgers will end his slump with a pair of solid outings. However, it is worth noting that dating back to last season, Rodgers has thrown for under 300 yards in five of his last six regular season starts and looking further back, eight of his last eleven starts.
2. Another stud performer who has had an uneven start to the 2011 season is Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Once again suffering from the poor performance of the team’s quarterbacks, Fitzgerald has caught just 14 of his 25 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown. However, he had a solid performance with Kevin Kolb at quarterback this week, catching all nine of his targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. That has to be considered an encouraging sign since the two failed to be on the same page since the early part of the 2011 season.
3. Sticking with Fitzgerald, he became the youngest player to top 700 receptions, doing it just after his 29th birthday which was on August 31st.
4. Here’s to Lions head coach Jim Schwartz and all the fantasy football owners who lost this week because Schwartz failed to trot out Jason Hanson for a chip shot field goal during overtime of the Lions loss to the Titans. Rather than kick the tying field to extend overtime, the Lions ran a quarterback sneak inside the Titans 10-yard line with Schwartz later claiming there was a communication error on the play. Nothing like throwing your quarterback under the bus, coach.
5. If you are looking for a buy low candidate at running back, one option has to be the Rams Steven Jackson. Sjax has had a slow start to the season, struggling in Week 1 against the Lions, suffering a groin injury that cost him most of Week 2 and then struggling while playing hurt this past week against a stiff Bears defense. With a pair of solid run defenses up next in the Seahawks and Cardinals, the road doesn’t get any easier for the Rams main offensive threat. However, those who drafted Jackson did it on the premise that the Jeff Fisher led team would run the ball plenty (which they have) and on Jackson’s distinguished performance over the past seven seasons. During that time, he has topped 1,000 rushing yards every year and averaged 1,605 total yards per season while topping 1,300 total yards six times.
 Is Jake Locker ready for primetime? 6. Here is a toast to the high-flying Tennessee Titans. What’s that, you say? During the Titans overtime win over the Lions this week, Tennessee became the first team in the history of the NFL to score five touchdowns of 60 or more yards in a single game.
7. Sticking with the Titans, quarterback Jake Locker didn’t look quite ready for primetime during the team’s thrashing losses to the Patriots and Chargers to open the season with the Titans chalking up a combined 23 points. However, he had a career outing this week against the Lions, despite the continued struggles of running back Chris Johnson, throwing for 378 yards and a pair of touchdowns while completing 29 of 42 passes. Locker makes for an interesting QB2 and a solid prospect in dynasty leagues due to the presence of a number of solid young playmakers at wide receiver and tight end coupled with Johnson’s continued struggles, which now date back to the latter stages of the 2010 season.
8. And if you are wondering whether Johnson is a buy low candidate, you might want to think again. Over his past 21 regular season starts, Johnson has topped 100 rushing yards just four times while averaging 9.6 points per game.
9. With his first rushing touchdown of the season this week against the Colts, Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew eclipsed Fred Taylor’s franchise record for rushing touchdowns with 63 during just his 7th season in the league. That is an impressive accomplishment considering that MJD spent the first three seasons of his career backing up Taylor and the sorry state of the franchise during his time in Jacksonville.
10. Opening the season, the San Francisco 49ers were the overwhelming favorites to win the NFC West but they now sit a game behind the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals and tied with the 2-1 Seattle Seahawks. Both the Cardinals and Seahawks feature upper tier defenses that while not yet comparable to the 49ers, have helped their organizations quickly close the gap on San Francisco. With their win this week over the Eagles, the Cardinals are now a very impressive 10-2 over their past 12 games dating back to last season while the Seahawks are 7-4 over their last 11 regular season games.
11. Rashard Mendenhall owners can thank Isaac Redman for letting the cat out of the bag during the Steelers Week 4 bye as to who was going to be starting for the team when they return to action in Week 5. Redman told the Pittsburgh Tribune that the Steelers were looking for Mendenhall to come in and “be the feature guy”. With 195 rushing yards over the first three games and a 2.6 yards per carry average, look for Mendenhall to resume his starting role during the Steelers Week 5 home game against the Eagles.
12. Giants backup running back Andre Brown gave New York’s rushing attack a jolt this week with his 113-yard, two-touchdown performance over the Panthers. That game brought Brown’s yearly totals to 33 carries for 184 yards and three touchdowns. While the common assumption is that Ahmad Bradshaw will remain the team’s starter and that is likely an accurate assessment, there are certainly major question marks as to how the workload will be split up over the balance of the season. With Bradshaw leading the rushing attack in 2011, the Giants finished last in the league in average rushing yards per game and in average yards per carry. While some of those poor results could be laid at the feet of the departed Brandon Jacobs, Bradshaw was also to blame as his career low 3.9 average yards per carry attests. Throw in his inability to stay healthy and it is safe to assume that Brown is in line for a healthy dose of carries over the balance of the season, provided he can hold off 1st round pick David Wilson.
By: Dave Stringer — September 25, 2012 @ 3:14 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Andy Dalton, Bengals
We can forgive Dalton for a subpar opening week performance against the Ravens but he has been on fire over the last two weeks, dismantling both the Browns and the Redskins. While neither team has an above average secondary and the Browns were without Joe Haden, Dalton’s numbers were still impressive, as he passed for over 300 yards and threw for three touchdowns in each game. Up next – Jaguars (21st ranked pass defense), Dolphins, (28th) and the Browns again (26th).
Moving Down
 Aaron Rodgers moving down? Who wudda thunk it? Aaron Rodgers, Packers
While the Packers skill position players have not played as well as they did in 2011, partly due to injuries, the real issue with Rodgers is the team’s offensive line, which is in shambles. And nobody is even hurt. Who knows – maybe center Jeff Saturday is having trouble with the line calls. Eight sacks to Seattle is a disgrace even if the Seahawks possess one of the league’s better (maybe best) defensive backfields. With just three touchdown passes and 745 passing yards over three games, Rodgers is currently the 23rd ranked fantasy quarterback, not what his owners had in mind, although his next two matchups look sweet (dating myself here) with the Saints and Colts up next.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Mikel Leshoure, Lions
I tried to steal this guy in a couple of leagues last week but the asking price was too high. And it just went up, courtesy of his 26 carries, 100 yards, and one touchdown on the ground this week against the Titans. Leshoure also displayed some pass catching ability, hauling in all four of his targets for 34 yards. Will he get 30 touches every week? Not a chance. But he did prove that he doesn’t need a pile of touches to rack up a decent point total. Leshoure looks like a decent RB2 from here on out.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
He’s back!!!!! But not for long if the Chiefs give him 33 carries every week.
Tashard Choice, Bills
C.J. Spiller is likely out with a sprained shoulder and Fred Jackson (knee injury) says there is a 75% chance that he will play. Let’s take that bet and go on the assumption that he won’t dress. That would make Choice the starter and he was solid against the Browns, rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries. Choice is also a solid pass catcher so even if the Bills get behind against the Patriots, he figures to get plenty of touches… provided he starts.
Andre Brown, Giants
Hello, Andre Brown! Subbing in for an injured Ahmad Bradshaw, Brown did his best Jim Brown impersonation, running roughshod over an overmatched Panthers defense last Thursday night. By game’s end, Brown had chalked up 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns on his 20 carries as well as logging three receptions for 17 yards. Sure, the Panthers D probably couldn’t have tackled a Pop Warner reject in this one and the Giants offensive line was dominant but Brown did enough to earn a share of the workload going forward. We all know Bradshaw is injury prone, rookie 1st round pick David Wilson has been a disappointment and the Giants formula in the past has been to use multiple backs.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
Looks like Reggie Bush will miss some time with a knee injury and Thomas played well this week against the Jets, gaining 69 yards and scoring the first rushing touchdown of his career in the Dolphins 23-20 loss. A lost fumble didn’t help his cause but he moved ahead of rookie 4th round pick Lamar Miller on the depth chart and is the odds on favorite to get the start this week against the Cardinals if Bush can’t go.
Bilal Powell, Jets
Powell had the most extensive work of his two-year career against the Dolphins, gaining 69 yards on 12 touches. With Joe McKnight buried on the depth chart and Shonn Greene not much of a receiving threat, Powell had five targets in the passing game and may be nudging the Jets into a timeshare situation with Greene. Or maybe they reduced Greene’s workload due to the concussion he suffered last week. Either way, Powell is worth a look if you have a bench spot open.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
Moving Down three weeks in a row. The funny thing is that I’m not even bitter about his pathetic performance since I refused to own him in any of my leagues this year. This is just a bit of a hate on for guys who get their money and bust and guys who won’t man up for their poor performance. CJ2K (time to replace that nickname, folks) fails on both counts.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Last week, we put Ryan Williams Moving Down and that didn’t work out so well. Williams got the majority of the work this week against the Eagles and played well, gaining 83 yards on 13 carries and catching one pass for 12 yards. Wells (turf toe) can’t stay healthy and he hasn’t produced when he’s been in there. Expect this backfield to be in flux for most of 2012.
Kevin Smith, Lions
I’m dropping in here for the second week in a row just so I can provide myself with an opportunity to say I told you so to a few people who were calling me out on having Moving Down last week. Petty, yes. With Mikel Leshoure in the line up for the first time ever, Smith was unceremoniously benched this week and given no touches. Joique Bell backed up Leshoure and unless there is an injury, Smith appears to be firmly planted on the bench and likely out of a job if Jahvid Best returns at some point this season.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Just a little reminder that the Patriots never employ a workhorse back and there will be days like this. As in, 13 carries for Ridley for 37 yards and precious little playing time in the second half when the team went no huddle. Ridley should be a solid RB3 by season’s end but not without some hiccups along the way.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Unless you just came out of your cave, you know what I’m talking about. Heavy heart and all and Smith is the week’s top rated fantasy receiver with six receptions for 127 yards and a pair of scores.
Ramses Barden, Giants
Meet the Giants new top backup wide receiver. With Hakeem Nicks out of the lineup and the Panthers focused on shutting down Victor Cruz, Barden went wild, catching nine of his 10 targets for 138 yards. The Giants throw it enough to support three wide receivers and it looks like Barden is finally realizing the potential that he has shown since being a 3rd round pick in the 2009 draft. Nicks owners should definitely get in on the Barden action.
Denarius Moore, Raiders
Two games, 18 targets, eight receptions, 112 yards and a score. With Darrius Heyward-Bey out for an indefinite period with a concussion and Moore getting on the same page with quarterback Carson Palmer, his fantasy prospects are on the rise.
Moving Down
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
You know, there is a line drawn somewhere in time when a player who was supposed to become something big becomes exactly what he is. It feels like Dez Bryant is about to hit that line. What he could become was always thought to be something elite. What he is right now is a guy who will score some touchdowns but doesn’t seem capable of even topping 1,000 yards. This year, Bryant’s on pace for 875 yards and he has failed to score.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks
The Seahawks are on pace to throw for 2,315 yards in 2012. Since they spread their targets around like peanut butter, Rice has just 15 looks this season, including one in Week 3.
Greg Little, Browns
Head coach Pat Shurmur says Little is on a short leash due to his propensity for dropping passes. Let’s hope you’ve had Little on a leash (as in, on your bench) thus far in 2012.
Mike Williams, Buccaneers
Yes, he has scored two touchdowns but I’m guessing that he’s not going to keep scoring at a 7:1 target to touchdown ratio. I will do the math for you. That is 14 targets on the season. Seven receptions for 104 yards. More math – 34.7 yards per game. The resurrection of Mike Williams is looking less likely as the weeks go by.
Santana Moss, Redskins
It’s officially official. The Redskins have moved on from Moss, as his target total suggests (11 on the season).
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
While Rudolph has yet to emerge as a down the field option for the Vikings, he has become a solid red zone option, hauling in three touchdowns over the past two weeks. With no proven threat opposite Percy Harvin, Rudolph looks good going forward and no, I’m not worried about the imminent return of the immortal Jerome Simpson.
Moving Down
Jason Witten, Cowboys
What’s wrong with Witten? The normally reliable Dallas tight end entered the season still healing from a spleen injury but has managed to catch just six of 16 targets over the past two games for a paltry 64 yards. Witten says he is healthy but you have to wonder given his low production in 2012. It might just be that some combination of injuries and age are finally catching up to the Cowboys likely Hall of Fame tight end.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:39 am
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! The first truly crazy weekend in the season had it all: fourth quarter comebacks galore, five call reversals in one game, coaches yanking on the arms of officials, emotional performances in response to familial deaths. I hope simply to make it through with my ear fully intact. Let’s get right into the action:
Giants–Panthers
Well, the Panthers certainly got more than bargained for Thursday night. The Giants were large and in charge of all aspects of this game. When Cam Newton gets a rushing touchdown and still only gets 9 total points in standard scoring formats, something is terribly wrong. If the Panthers can’t get the run game going, including Newton, they can’t win. With New York, there are two names that should disappear instantly from your waiver wire if they haven’t already: Martellus Bennett and Andre Brown. Bennett is especially not going anywhere, as the Giants have had big plans for a big tight end for years. The Giants didn’t draft rookie running back David Wilson in the first round to sit him, but it will be hard to put the lightning-in-a-bottle they’ve found on the bench.
Rams–Bears
The Bears once again failed to capitalize on a defense they should have torched. Most people weren’t sipping much fantasy Kool-Aid on Jay Cutler, but there were huge expectations for Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Through three games, an unclear ankle injury, and two throw-away performances, neither has excited fantasy owners. However, I still believe there is an untapped offensive potential on this team just waiting for Mike Tice to get a scheme together for the O-Line. Trade for Bears if you can get them cheap. The Rams currently have no business being discussed in fantasy and will likely be irrelevant for the entire year.
Bills–Browns
The Bills, tied for the lead in their division through three weeks, were able to defeat the Browns in Cleveland. This is probably the biggest accomplishment for the Bills in this young season, as the city of Cleveland typically debilitates visiting offenses. However, the Bills took a huge blow when C.J. Spiller went down early on. The outlook appears good for Spiller, as there is a chance he won’t miss a full game, but I’d bench him until you’re sure you’ll get 60 minutes out of him.
For the Browns, I am still highly skeptical of Trent Richardson and the Browns offense, but it appears I was premature in saying that Richardson wouldn’t make the Top 20. He is scoring enough touchdowns early that his eventual season-ending injury should occur after he secures a spot among the top 20. Don’t take solace in that, however. In this RB-starved year, I’d sell Richardson to the highest bidder.
Buccaneers–Cowboys
This week the Cowboys were a couple of touchdowns away from being a fantasy point machine. The overall result was disappointing, but take a look at these yardage totals:
If Romo had thrown even one touchdown, he and at least one of those wide receivers would have had a fantastic fantasy day.
For the Bucs, there is still little to be gleaned from their current play regarding start/sit decisions. Obviously, no Buccaneer is an every-week starter, but yours truly is beginning to wonder if they are worth the stress. I wouldn’t trade Doug Martin, but no one else has been given enough consistent touches, let alone production, to keep them from the fantasy chopping block.
Jaguars–Colts
In a battle of two offenses with no expectations, the Jags were able to come out with a win on the heels of an incensed Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD ran for 177 yards and a touchdown; however, I’m still terrified of a major injury due to his lack of an offseason practice regimen. He is another RB that will fetch high value, perhaps even greater value in the form of two players from another team. For the Colts, it was more of the same, as Reggie Wayne, Donald Brown, and Andrew Luck continued to have outstanding fantasy days for their status. T.Y. Hilton may be worth picking up and stashing just in case he becomes a regular big-yardage play.
Jets–Dolphins
Here is the good news for the Jets: They were able to defeat the Dolphins in overtime. Here is the bad news for the Jets: They needed overtime to beat the Dolphins. Oh yeah, and they lost Darrelle Revis for the season. Is this defense good enough that it can still be a value-pick, every-week start without Revis? Sadly, it appears that this Jets fantasy offense is even more tepid than the Dolphins, Browns, Bills, and maybe even the Cardinals. Yikes!
The Dolphins may have suffered a terrible injury loss as well, as their entire offense was injured when Reggie Bush’s knee was hurt for the 900th time in his career. Look for Daniel Thomas to step up in Bush’s absence, but the offense may sputter without the run and catch threat that Bush provides.
49ers–Vikings
Last year, yours truly had this to say after Week 12: “Christian Ponder is the anti-Tebow. He always looks better to me than his stat line. He’s proven his mobility, his competency, and his football IQ. Yet, when it all shakes out, all of that great play amounts to less than Matt Moore or Carson Palmer put up on the stat sheet.” Luckily for the Vikings, hardworking, cerebral quarterbacks typically work out in the long run, and Ponder flashed greatness on Sunday, throwing two touchdowns and no picks versus a ridiculously nasty 49ers D.
For the 49ers, no real fantasy news here. Keep starting Vernon Davis, start Crabtree or Manningham when the matchup warrants, and hang on to Kendall Hunter in anticipation of Frank Gore’s inevitable injury.
Chiefs–Saints
I thought both offenses looked fantastic through three quarters, though how dubious is that statement with how pitiful these defenses have been? Jamaal Charles ran for what seemed like a season’s worth of yards and racked up two or three games’ worth of receiving yards as well. The “chief” take away from this game: start anyone who plays the Saints or the Chiefs. In that same vein, don’t be too impressed by anything you saw from this game, as it is liable to be a flash in the pan.
Pain Heals. Chicks Dig Scars. Glory Lasts Forever.
The truly amazing stat about this game is that The Replacements averaged one call reversal per quarter in a game with a quarter of overtime. My favorite part, however, is how much the hilariously named Don King sounds like John F. Kennedy. If you missed this game, go to one of the hundreds of articles bashing The Replacements and check out the calls. “Ask not what the replay booth can do for you, but what you can do for the replay booth!”
Lions–Titans
The analysis of the Titans is easy: You should not expect this kind of production from any of their players, as they will not score 40-plus points every week. Not even 20. However, even when they did score 44 points, CJ2K still managed only 24 yards on 14 carries and one reception for five yards. Chris Johnson has a 0.03 rating on the Calvin Scale this season, including a +0.02 bonus for having the same family name. I wonder if he considers that performance the fault of the O-line as well. At this point, he may be a difficult sell for any kind of value, but if someone will take him, you should make the move.
For the Lions, you may be excited about 26 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown, and rightfully so, but Detroit does not run much. However, this may have been perfect timing if Stafford is indeed out. If it turns out that Stafford is back next week, LeShoure’s chances of a repeat performance are far from a sure thing.
Bengals–Redskins
Count yours truly among those who had no business winning in their fantasy leagues this week, except for the simple excellence of A.J. Green. Quietly, Green cashed in 183 yards and a score, including a textbook 80-yard bomb on the first play from scrimmage. Also, the Law Firm scored his second touchdown on the year in what looks to be a high-scoring season for the sturdy-handed RB. For the Skins, how mad must Santana Moss be now that he finally has a passable quarterback in his 12th season, when he has lost a step and his talent is sapped. Once regarded as one of the top talents at his position, Moss now ironically relegated to one-catch games with the best quarterback he’s ever lined up with.
Eagles–Cardinals
Oh the sad, sad prospects of the Eagles. Philly fans are cursing that lucky rabbit’s foot I warned about after the Week 1 “victory” against the Browns. If these Eagles can stop the bleeding from their turnover ratio, they may yet be able to win their division and compete in the playoffs, but fantasy prospects are looking grim for the Iggles.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing with so much swag after a 3-0 start that Kevin Kolb threw for Rick Ross numbers of 222 yards for two touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald also came back to life this week in a performance that can only feel like what Han Solo must have felt after being freed from the carbonite.
Falcons–Chargers
In a strange turn of events, Ryan Mathews had a total of 15 touches for 76 yards, but the Chargers were only able to muster an anemic 3 points against an Atlanta Falcons team that is on an NFL-wide tear. The disgusting lack of yards and points for the Chargers leaves all analysis at the door, outside of Mathews appearing to be in capacity enough to warrant a starting consideration. On the Atlanta side, there simply weren’t enough touchdowns for all of the surging skill positions. Turner, Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and Jacquizz Rodgers each scored to amplify their yardage totals. Only Roddy White was left out, in what was essentially an exhibition of the Falcons’ offensive capabilities. It appears that all San Diego RBs not named Mathews are back to the bench, unless you think Jackie Battle will continue to have success as a third-down back.
Texans–Broncos
Nothing goes better with football than clichés—except maybe Tapenade. Despite this, I’ve had it up to here with concept that opposing quarterbacks are battling against each other. I understand when pitchers have duels and single-handedly determine the fate of their games, but football is far too much of a team sport for that kind of talk.
Matt Schaub had a fantastic game on top of what is turning out to be a fantastic season for the Texans. However, he did not “out duel” Peyton Manning, as such seems impossible to me. Comparing two quarterbacks against one another in a game where they are playing totally different defenses is asinine, in my humble opinion. Take Schaub and Arian Foster for granted, but beware of Andre Johnson, as 72 yards and a touchdown is less impressive when you realize it was on only two catches. Manning, Decker, and Demariyus Thomas are all matchup plays and bye-week starters, but Brandon Stokley is also quickly becoming a bye-week fill-in if you’re light at WR.
Steelers–Raiders
If I were the head coach of the Raiders, I would always take a touchback out to the 20-yard line and then attempt a field goal on every fourth down. Janikowski is the man in my book—he looks like he cares about three things: Chicken Wings, Pabst Blue Ribbon, and super long field goals. If Janikowksi ever gets the chance, I’m certain he will break the record for longest field goal. I’m sorry I’m going on so much about a kicker, but he is so white-trash awesome.
For the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger dominated the Raiders defense and angered fantasy owners everywhere who benched him for Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, or Tony Romo. Todd Haley’s philosophy is starting to take hold as the Steelers offense is slowly transitioning to a passing-centered game. Watch for your Steelers passing stars to continue to rise and your Steelers 300-carry running backs to fade into oblivion.
Patriots–Ravens
I can’t imagine how disappointed each of these teams must have been when they lost in Week 2, knowing that they would have to play each other the next week. Going 1-2 is never a good thing, but preseason darlings that go 1-2 start to deteriorate very quickly. For the Patriots, this offense will bounce back under the cool-headed leadership of Bill Belichick, so don’t panic, but don’t be surprised if it’s a few more weeks before they really click.
The difference between Brady’s “subpar” performance and Flacco’s “elite” performance was completions for touchdown. Both completed 28 passes and Flacco threw for around 50 yards more, but the 3:1 touchdown-to-inception ratio made Flacco the far better man for fantasy. He should be writing a thank you letter to Torrey Smith, who torched the Patriots to keep the Ravens in the game. Don’t look for this kind of performance every game, but Smith has probably earned 7 to 10 targets a game and will likely be starting material for your fantasy team all season long.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On finally getting his way after screaming all of the first quarter that The Replacements weren’t throwing a flag to control the emotions when skirmishes were breaking out:
“I wouldn’t have thrown the flag—I’ll just put it that way!”
Even CC had to get into the action of abusing The Replacements this week, and I’m beginning to wonder if the NFL will eventually ask the broadcast companies to pay the issue less attention. If there should be any criticism levied from this whole situation, it should be against the players, and especially the coaches, for trying to intimidate The Replacements. Not only is it unsportsmanlike, but it’s just generally deplorable.
Packers–Seahawks
What a remarkable spectacle of a game. First, the Seahawks have a great defense. Especially when playing in Seattle, you should temper your expectations for any QB or WR against this lockdown defense. For the Packers, this offense will get itself under control. As the madness of the early season begins to settle down, the Packers skill players will come through for your team.
Pains Heals. Chicks Dig Scars. Glory Lasts Forever. Part II
 The NFL has a mess on their hands. Oh boy. All The Replacements needed was the fiasco at the end of this game. First, let’s restate what happened:
- Russell Wilson throws a deep bomb to the end zone where there are two Seahawks and about 52 Packers. The first infraction the world is screaming at The Replacements about is Golden Tate shoving Sam Shieldsout of the way. Even Jon Gruden, who notoriously complains about The Replacements, stated that end-of-the-game Hail Mary’s are essentially “Let ’em play” situations, and that offensive pass interference is rarely if ever going to be called on a play like that, even by the regular officials.
- Next, M.D. Jennings elevates and grabs the ball with two hands while Tate places one hand on the ball. As Jennings brings the ball to his chest, Tate places his second hand on the ball, then the pile of players collapse to the ground. If, for even a fraction of a second, Tate established 50% control of the ball before Jennings’ feet hit the ground, the correct call is “simultaneous possession.” Furthermore, the simultaneous possession that was ruled on the field cannot be overturned by replay, even if the officials saw in their review that Shields clearly had control first. The Replacements made the best call they could see on the field, which turned out to be unreviewable. And there lies the rub.
- When Tate and Jennings fell into the scrum with questionable-but-not-obvious simultaneous possession, both refs in the end zone looked at each other, nodded, and then provided two different signals. Each ref had assumed the other saw what he saw. Instead of huddling to determine the call, The Replacements felt harried and terrified and simply went with the touchdown call.
- Finally, and most inexcusably, the refs called a touchdown and got the heck out of Dodge without completing the game with the mandatory extra point. They then had to be notified to come back on the field to finish the game.
The sad truth is that The Replacements are overmatched and are being taken advantage of. Just as we say the game moves too fast for rookie players, the game is too fast for The Replacements, and they have lost all control of the field. Players are being liberal with their gamesmanship to test the mettle of the officials. How many coaches are going to receive fines because of their miserable behavior? You can blame The Replacements for the calls, they did make them, but neither the coaches nor the players are handling this with class. With an immaturity that apparently knows no boundaries, the players and coaches are applying so much pressure that they are rattling these officials into making quick decisions and playing with a disregard for the rules—the strategy NFL teams take against rookies on opposing teams. It is the official’s job to call out rule breaking; however, it is the responsibility of the players and coaches to try to play within the rules. How can we expect The Replacements to be thoughtful and accurate with the pressure being placed on them by the players and coaches? The refs are not a third team on the field, and they should not be strategized against. How many of these situations would have been different if the media didn’t barbeque them beforehand, with the coaches following suit during the game, and the players moaning and groaning about them afterwards? In the end, these guys are out there making the best calls they can—even the best refs will make bad calls—but they are the scapegoats of a bad situation mixed with unprofessional play.
My last thought is this, how much are the regular officials at fault here? They are demanding to maintain a pension as part-time employees. How many full-time employees still have a pension in 2012? I’m guessing that NFL Referee is one of the only part-time jobs in the United States that is pensioned. It simply isn’t the way of American business anymore. There is nothing wrong with the NFL pushing to move the referee job into the 21st century. Perhaps instead of moaning for the NFL to give in to whatever demands the refs make so that they can regain control the field, we should be yelling at the referees to accept being paid what is acceptable.
And that’s it! What an interesting conclusion to a very interesting week. Next week, look for your Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Cardinals, Packers, and Bears to excel. Come on, these Bears have to pack some offensive firepower into a Monday Night game right? Don’t forget your Colts and Steelers are on bye, so find suitable replacements!
P.S. I really enjoyed your questions last week, keep them coming and I’ll reply on Wednesday and Thursday as they come in.
By: Dave Stringer — September 21, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
 RGIII shouldn't be surprised about the rough treatment given to him by opposing defenses. 1. Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III suffered his first loss this week, a 31-28 nail-biter against the Rams in St. Louis. Washington had a chance to tie the game but a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against wide receiver Josh Morgan pushed the team out of field goal range during the last minute of the contest. RGIII went off on the Rams this week, stating they were unprofessional and took some cheap shots at him. What he is forgetting is that the Rams formula was successful and his complaining about it after the game is only going to reinforce the notion that opposing defenses can get him off his game by playing to the whistle and slightly beyond. The reality is that it should be no surprise that the Rams were going to go after him since the Redskins entire offensive playbook is predicated on his unique set of skills. While the Rams were certainly playing on the edge and keeping with Jeff Fisher’s defensive philosophy from his days in Tennessee, we can be fairly certain that Washington’s offensive coaches apprised RGIII of what to expect during the week leading up to the game.
2. Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall was cleared for contact this week, opening up the possibility that he could playing during the team’s Week 3 road game against the Raiders. However, with both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer expected to play and Pittsburgh having a Week 4 bye, look for the Steelers to sit Mendenhall this week and for him to make his 2012 season debut in the team’s Week 5 home game against the Eagles. Neither Redman nor Dwyer have done enough to wrestle the starting roll away from Mendenhall so look for him to see a normal amount of touches by Week 8 or 9, if not earlier.
3. Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has had a disappointing start to the season, notching just seven receptions for 102 yards during the Cowboys first two games. While it is clearly too early to give up on the talented Dallas receiver, another disappointing effort against the Bucs and their 29th ranked passing defense just might make the alarm bells starting going off for Bryant owners. His preseason prognosis looked solid with the team seemingly lacking a proven 3rd wide receiver. Although Kevin Ogletree may not end up being a threat to Bryant’s usage, it is worth noting that Bryant is currently on pace to record just 102 targets in 2012, one less than he had in 2011. Also concerning for his owners should be the fact that he has topped 100 receiving yards just once in 29 career games and that was in Week 10 of his rookie season.
4. In Indianapolis, Donnie Avery has quickly made his mark with the Colts, catching 12 of his 18 targets over the team’s first two games for 148 yards and a score. New Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians likes what Avery has brought to the team’s offense as their only true deep threat, making it likely that he will continue to have a role in the team’s offense when fellow wide receiver Austin Collie returns from his latest concussion. The first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft, Avery flamed out in St. Louis but may have found a home in Indianapolis in 2012. He makes for an intriguing flyer in deeper fantasy leagues.
5. You have to love Titans running back Chris Johnson. A year removed from one of the least inspiring seasons a former 2,000 yard running back has ever had, Johnson is once again struggling in 2012 and apparently laying the blame at the feet of his team’s offensive line. This week, Johnson said he wasn’t to blame for his struggles and that he wouldn’t lay the blame on others. Duh. If Johnson hasn’t performed, and he hasn’t, and he isn’t to blame, then he’s blaming the offensive line. Here’s guessing the Titans offensive line isn’t too impressed by the team’s star running back comments to the press. At this point, Johnson can’t be considered a must start and if you have a decent RB3 on a good matchup, consider putting Johnson on your bench.
6. Is the Giants Ramses Barden the real deal? While he may be a reasonably talented receiver, don’t be surprised if the Giants turn that role over to rookie 2nd round pick Rueben Randle at some point in 2012. Barden’s contract is up at the end of this season and his skill set is very similar to Randle’s. As for veteran journeyman Domenik Hixon, don’t look for him to be a key component of the team’s game planning any time soon.
7. Sticking with the Giants, the Andre Brown feel good story was a nice one and he could be a decent fantasy starter if Ahmad Bradshaw is out for a significant period of time. However, that possibility seems remote and while Brown looked good against the Panthers, it was a night in which the Giants offensive line played extremely well and Carolina’s defensive line and linebackers were mostly going through the motions. A big portion of Brown’s production came after missed tackle and while he gets credit for running hard, he clearly benefitted from a subpar night put in by the Panthers defenders.
8.In Seattle, the Seahawks are sticking to their tried and true offensive formula of pounding the ball and keeping things simple in the passing game. Despite all the hoopla about the playmaking ability of rookie 3rd round pick Russell Wilson, the team has passed the ball just 54 times in two games for 304 yards. While fantasy enthusiasts may look at the numbers and surmise that a change is in order with free agent signee Matt Flynn getting a chance to start, Seahawks management seems committed to developing Wilson as the team’s long-term starter at the position. With Wilson currently ranked 30th among fantasy quarterbacks, he is little more than a prospect in dynasty leagues and his presence is a major negative factor in wide receiver Sidney Rice’s production. With Wilson at the controls, Seattle has just one fantasy roster worthy performer in running back Marshawn Lynch.
9. In case you are wondering who the 31st rated fantasy quarterback is, that would be the Texans Matt Schaub, putting to rest the debate as to whether Houston is truly a run dominant team. Consider Schaub little more than a low end QB2 in 12-team leagues in 2012.
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