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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — September 18, 2012 @ 3:34 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
The way the Chiefs are going, Cassel is going to be loading up on garbage time points in 2012. Two blowouts into the season and he is the sixth ranked fantasy passer with 559 yards and three passing touchdowns to go along with a score on the ground. Even taking away the rushing touchdown, Cassel would still be ranked in the top 10. Jonathan Baldwin’s performance in Week 2 was also encouraging.
Moving Down
Jake Locker, Titans
This isn’t as much of an indictment of Locker as it is of the entire Titans offense. The offensive line looks bad, running back Chris Johnson is in a coma, Kenny Britt is tied together with string and Nate Washington has a sore calf. There are a lot of things that need to change in Tennessee for Locker to be fantasy relevant.
Running Backs
Moving Up
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Moving Up two weeks in a row. Boring, I know, but deserved courtesy of his demolition of the Chiefs. Spiller now has 364 total yards and three touchdowns for the year, ranking him as the number one fantasy running back. It’s beginning to look like the Bills starting running back gig is Spiller’s to lose.
Michael Bush, Bears
Bears head coach Lovie Smith says Forte doesn’t have a high ankle sprain but on the other hand, they re-signed Kahlil Bell so they are obviously concerned about Forte’s availability in the short term. While Forte won’t miss significant time if Smith’s comments are true, Bush figures to start for at least a week and maybe more. The team’s offense crashed back to earth after a solid Week 1 performance but Bush could be gold as the Bears face some weak rushing defenses over the next three weeks (Rams, Cowboys, Jaguars).
Andre Brown, Giants
Ahmad Bradshaw may miss some time with a neck injury and rookie 1st round pick David Wilson is firmly in the doghouse for fumbling in Week 1. Enter Brown, who looked good, rushing for 71 yards and a score on 13 carries while adding 19 yards on a pair of receptions. He looks to be the starter if the MRI on Bradshaw’s neck turns up something serious. With a Thursday game on tap, Brown figures to get the starting nod in Week 3.
Daryl Richardson, Rams
Meet Steven Jackson’s new handcuff. Or is that SJax’s new competition? We will likely never find out the real reason SJax spent most of the game standing on the sidelines (groin injury vs. benching) but what we do know is that Richardson looked good subbing in for him. The rookie 7th round pick has usurped Isaiah Pead, one of the Rams 2nd round picks, on the depth chart and rumbled for 83 yards on 15 carries while catching two balls for 19 yards. A fumble late in the 4th quarter was the only blemish on an otherwise solid performance. Jackson isn’t likely to miss any time but his owners need to run to the waiver wire to grab Richardson.
Moving Down
 CJ's fantasy value is sinking quick. Chris Johnson, Titans
From being a Barry Sandersesque talent to being a complete dud in two years. Stunning, folks, just stunning. Johnson has just 21 yards on 19 carries this season to go along with eight receptions for 58 yards. If you have anything on your bench, then sit Johnson, who faces a pair of top 10 run defenses in each of the next two weeks (Lions, Texans).
Ryan Williams, Cardinals
It’s not like Beanie Wells has been lighting it up but Williams has been awful with 18 carries for 22 yards and four receptions for 27 yards. I will do the math for you – 22 touches, 49 yards. Not to mention an almost fatal fumble late in the 4th quarter this week, giving him two lost fumbles already in 2012.
Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith was so unimpressive against the 49ers that the coaching staff turned to some retread named Joique Bell, who is 26 years old and had never carried the ball during his three years in the league. With Mikel Leshoure returning from suspension in Week 3, Smith’s fantasy value is sinking fast.
Ronnie Brown, Chargers
He’s done. Just saying.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Danny Amendola, Rams
Amendola should fumble on his first reception every game. Huh? After having the Redskins return his early fumble for a touchdown, Amendola caught fire, catching 12 passes in the first half on the way to 15 receptions, 160 yards, and one touchdown. The Rams offense goes something like this. Hand it off, pass to Amendola. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. Amendola just might be a PPR demon in 2012.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Five receptions on 11 targets for 95 yards and no scores shouldn’t get you Moving Up, particularly when your head coach, the best in the league at what he does, appears to want to phase you out of your team’s offense. But with tight end Aaron Hernandez expected to miss several weeks with an ankle sprain, the Patriots no longer have the luxury of phasing Welker out.
Donnie Avery, Colts
With Austin Collie sidelined, Avery has taken over his spot in the starting lineup and amassed a whopping 18 targets over the first two weeks of the season, catching 12 passes for 148 yards and a score. A former 2nd round pick of the Rams, Avery was the first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft, mostly due to his blazing speed and he might just be ready to be a solid contributor on a Colts offense that figures to be behind early and often in 2012. Points are points whether you get them in garbage time or not and we all know about Collie’s health issues.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Just a friendly reminder that Bowe is talented and the Chiefs don’t have much at tight end and neither Steve Breaston nor Jonathan Baldwin are consistent threats opposite Bowe. He went off this week against the Bills for 102 yards and a pair of scores. Bowe might be a fool at times but he is a talented fool who has played all 16 games in four of his five seasons in the league. And he’s motivated to finally get the lucrative, long-term deal that the Chiefs have yet to offer him.
Moving Down
Robert Meachem, Chargers
Kind of looking like Malcom Floyd is the new Vincent Jackson and not Meachem, who threw up an O-fer this week.
Randy Moss, 49ers
The 49ers told us Moss would be on a limited rep count and they were apparently telling the truth. Randy has had five targets in two weeks and this week’s game against the Lions told us definitively that Michael Crabtree is the team’s top weapon at wide receiver as well as quarterback Alex Smith’s go-to guy in crunch time.
Anquan Boldin, Ravens
This week’s game against the Eagles proved that Boldin cannot beat elite cornerbacks. He remains a decent WR3 but one you likely need to sit if you know he is facing a top coverage corner.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Brandon Myers, Raiders
Two games, 11 targets, 11 receptions, 151 yards. Hey, it’s not like the Raiders have a load of proven talent at wide receiver. If you’re desperate for somebody on a roll, Myers is your man. And if he stinks it up in Week 3, it’s not like you have to feel bad for dumping him. Opposing defenses appear to be backing off the Raiders speedy wideouts and with Darren McFadden also getting plenty of attention, Myers is benefitting. For how long? Who knows.
Dante Rosario, Chargers
Three touchdowns on four targets gets you Moving Up, especially when the guy you’re playing behind can’t stay healthy. But it is worth noting that Rosario had one target in Week 1 when Antonio Gates was mostly healthy and prior to this week, Rosario last scored in 2009.
Moving Down
Fred Davis, Redskins
Two straight tough weeks for Davis who can’t seem to get on the same page with RGIII and who doesn’t seem to be a big part of what the Redskins want to do passing the ball. Even with Pierre Garcon out and facing a poor coverage corner in Craig Dahl, Davis still had only two receptions on five targets for 14 yards against the Rams.
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
This guy can do it all but I’m beginning to get the impression he can’t do it all for 16 games. This will be the third year in a row that he has missed time due to injury, a likely high ankle sprain sending him to the sideline this time.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 3:09 pm
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! After receiving the praise of an impossibly generous 1.1 rating on the Calvin scale, TMB only hopes to be able to follow up with a second effort. This week, the ultimate lesson to take away rings true in Denny Green’s famous rant, “They are who we thought they were!” Many teams returned to their original status this weekend, or had a deceptive performance that will trick many into becoming disbelievers. TMB is here with a word of caution to ignore those feelings and to wait it out. Let’s get right into it:
Bears – Packers
Impressively, Green Bay’s defense was able to clamp down on what yours truly referred to as possibly “the most explosive Chicago Bears offense in history.” Now, that is somewhat damning with faint praise, but certainly the skill players are in place. However, if your star running back has a high ankle sprain and your O-line can’t stay upright, you can’t expect the offense to click much. The Packers offense was still probably not worth what you paid for them, but don’t fret. Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, and Jermichael Finley will all be worth it when the dust settles.
 Bowe's fourth quarter explosion saved the day for his fantasy owners. Chiefs – Bills
In the first of a few games following this trend, KC compiled some garbage points to make the match look respectable. If you started Dwayne Bowe due to the matchup this week, you got lucky, but don’t forget that he was 15 points lighter going into the fourth quarter. For the Bills, C.J. Spiller and cast dominated for 60 straight minutes. For those of you on the fence, Spiller should be started without afterthought until Fred Jackson comes back or the weather changes, ironically, since the Bills likely won’t maintain success into the second half of the season.
Saints – Panthers
The Saints are now two losses deeper than their fans thought they would be two weeks in, and I blame the offseason issues, but not in the typical fashion. I believe that these Saints had pent-up frustration regarding the offseason suspensions and persecution, but the reinstatement of the players just before the week sapped most of that anger. The Saints now are terribly debilitated and unmotivated. I wouldn’t be surprised if these Saints bail on the season if they start the first half something like 3-5. Brees and Sproles should be kept in case this thing turn around, but the rest of the Saints should be trade bait for the hopeful.
For the Panthers, Cam Newton’s passing stat line came close to mirroring Romo’s and Flacco’s, yet he was heralded as a hero at home, mostly because of his insane 71 yards rushing. In addition, Williams and Stewart combined for 120 rushing yards and Steve Smith totaled 104 receiving yards . With the dynamic Cam Newton leading the charge, keep starting those Panthers.
Browns – Bengals
The Browns and Trent Richardson were encouraging, but I still stick by my lifelong fantasy football mantra, “Never trust the Browns.” Keep in mind that this statistical anomaly was against a culture-conflicted Bengals team. If you see enough to feel good about starting a Cleveland Brown, caveat emptor; but this wise guy will stubbornly be selling, regardless of outcome. I personally don’t believe the stress and general iffy-ness is worth it, and I’d always be willing to trade for a star player in a more stable franchise.
For the Bengals, it’s simple. Dalton and Green can be starters if you need them to be, and Green-Ellis will manage 70-plus yards and a touchdown more weeks than not due to Cincinnati’s style of play. Be careful with lesser-known Bengals, however, as they have a Brownsesque tendency to look like superstars one week and then disappear.
Vikings – Colts
The Vikings hung in with the Colts all game but fell in the final moments to the immortal Adam Vinatieri, as so many have before them. Ponder and Harvin followed up solid Week 1 performances with better Week 2 performances, though Harvin could really have been a force with a touchdown. Adrian Peterson turned in a rare zero-touchdown performance as well, but he clearly is on a snap count, with only 16 carries all game.
Andrew Luck led his Horseshoes to a win, despite having a slightly worse passing day than Ponder. Donnie Avery and Reggie Wayne, however, clearly outperformed their competition across the field. It turns out that Fleener may not play as much as expected (with only four targets against the Vikings). You may be wise to pick up a second TE and play the matchups if you have Fleener.
Texans – Jags
The touchdowns will not always stay the same, but in my opinion, Foster and Tate are both startable against bad defenses. I wouldn’t often consider starting a backup, but when the Texans play a bottom-half defense, I would gladly rank Tate in the top 30. The Jaguars crumbled in typical fashion, but again I preach caution: it’s early in the season and they won’t always be playing a top 10 opponent who is also a divisional rival.
Raiders – Dolphins
Imagine you are presented with this statement: “A running back in the Raiders–Dolphins game will run for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Who will it be?” Do you pick Darren McFadden or Reggie Bush? I would pick McFadden 10 times out of 10, even now. The Dolphins looked good against a mentally feeble Raiders team 3,100 miles from home in an early game. Similar to the Browns game, I believe this is far and away the exception, and a repeat should not be expected this season. For the Raiders, Carson Palmer was as double-sided as a Batman villain, what with a completion percentage of 50, a single touchdown, and an interception…and with the rest of the Raiders languishing under his leadership.
Cardinals – Patkowskis
I think there should be a children’s book called “The Gutsiest Little Cardinal” after Arizona’s Week 2 win. Kevin Kolb excelled on Sunday. Not only was he a game-managing, winning quarterback, but he was also arguably their most valuable rusher. The Pats fell into a trap game, it seems, and were looking ahead to their upcoming matchup with Baltimore. Start your Pats next week, however, as Gostkowski, Lloydkowski, Welkowski, and Gronkowski are angry and embarrassed, and should see a spike with the absence of Hernandez.
Buccaneers – Giants
Both of these offenses put up stellar numbers and won a lot of fantasy matchups, but remember that 24 of the Giants’ points came in the fourth quarter. Eli Manning’s 510 yards and three touchdowns this week makes him the NFL’s leading passer by a mile two weeks in. Andre Brown got the inevitable Ahmad Bradshaw injury carries instead of the rookie David Wilson. I would give it one full game to see if the rookie gets a crack at starting, but it’s back to the waiver wire if he gets fewer than 10 runs. On the Buccaneers side, V-Jax had a promising second effort, but I need to see him be a consecutively dominant force before he climbs the ranks out of the flex position.
Sportsmanship
The media talk on Monday centered around the controversial decision by Brian Schiano’s Bucs to rush the victory formation on the heels of a Giants interception. Obviously, the Giants are upset because of an unspoken rule that the quarterback kneel means the game is over, and that the risk of injury when the players are not expecting a defensive rush is high. However, the Bucs say that there were five seconds left and they were down by one score. Why not go for a fumble and try to tie it? Come to your own conclusions, but ponder this: Schiano still had a timeout in his pocket after that kneel-down. If it was truly a trying-to-win-it situation, why didn’t he call time and try again?
Ravens – Eagles
Philly, with a 1-point victory in each of their first two games, continues to do just enough to win. Vick is on a record-setting pace of 48 interceptions this season, with six picks through two weeks, but the rest of the offense looked typical of the Eagles. Be cautious with Brent Celek, however, as his explosion may have been scheme-driven. His history with Michael Vick is far less exciting. For the Ravens, it was much of the same as Rice and Flacco kept the Ravens in it until the last. Watch for your Ravens to be highly productive in a shootout at home next week.
Cowboys – Seahawks
Romo, with near identical stats to Flacco, did not fair nearly as well. No one around him performed particularly well, so what was the embattled quarterback to do? Don’t let the mix-up scare you, however, as Seattle is an incredibly difficult place to play. I’m sure Dallas fans and players alike cannot wait to get back home and welcome the Buccaneers to town next week. As to be expected, Seattle looked decidedly “meh” in a big win. Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch had a good day (122 yards and a score), but not a single yard was memorable. Keep Lynch in your starting lineup, and leave all other Seahawks on waivers.
Redskins – Rams
The biggest storyline for the Redskins this week was RGIII’s return to earth against a better-than-you-think Rams defense. However, the biggest story for fantasy concerning the Redskins is that Alfred Morris once again received the lion’s share of carries and Roy Helu did not advance the ball a single yard. Morris is your guy if you must, but be warned, the week you start him is the week that someone starts in his place. The Rams’ performance could be the headline of the world’s most obvious newspaper: “Sam Bradford Talented Quarterback. Steven Jackson out with Injury. World Still Turning.” Bradford is a perennial bye-week and injury fill-in, but he has the physical tools to put together a top 10 season, if only his supporting cast could keep pace. Until that changes, he’s a great option for backup quarterback and you should pick him up if he’s on your waiver wire.
Jets – Steelers
The Steelers looked impressive Sunday with controlled pass plays—not broken-down scramble plays. Todd Haley is bringing a passing aspect to the Steelers that has not been in the game plan in the past. While Roethlisberger continued to extend plays and make something from nothing, he was sacked only one time and the offense controlled the game. In addition, Brown and Wallace split the passing success for 79 and 74 yards, respectively. This is what the Steelers need to mask their annually bad O-line.
These Jets looked far less effective one week after they put up 48 points, as the certain-to-win-the-Super Bowl Mark Sanchez threw for only 138 yards and Tim “Just Win” Tebow had one run for 22 yards. It seems that the Jets spent all of their offensive firepower on Week 1. Be careful with these Jets, you never know if you’ll walk away with a win or a black eye.
Titans – Chargers
The Chargers are rolling early, which has always been their biggest struggle. The Broncos will play them close for the division title, but the Super Chargers are surging. The Philip Rivers-to-tight end connection looked particularly great as they connected for 48 yards and three touchdowns. Dante Rosario should be picked up from the waiver wire as soon as he is available. If New Orleans is in danger of jumping ship, then Tennessee is already starting to sink. Chris Johnson spoke out on Monday, saying, “People need to step up and do their job.” For some reason, I doubt the self-sure running back was speaking introspectively. Sell your Titans.
Lions – 49ers
San Francisco has a superb defense. A couple of years ago, you will recall, the Colts and the Saints were defense-proof. Both teams flirted with undefeated seasons and went to the Super Bowl as the No. 1 seed. In that vein, are the 49ers offense-proof? Can defense really still win championships? The fantasy production on offense may be light for this team (.40 Calvin), but the fantasy defense seems like a lock to be ranked No. 1. The Lions were simply locked down by the 49ers and could not get anything going on the ground or in the air. Don’t take it personally though; they won’t be playing such a terrific defense again this season.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
“Guys like Justin Smith, they don’t even need a helmet to play defensive tackle on this team!”
I’m not sure what Chris was going for with that quote, but I have already chimed in that classic schoolyard bully Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers defense playing quite spectacularly. I believe that Justin Smith would’ve been far less impressive sans headgear, but I cannot stress enough how badly San Francisco on your players schedule means SIT, possibly regardless of stature.
Broncos – Falcons
The Broncos fought notoriously to come back and win this game, but Manning’s awful first quarter made it impossible. Outside of the interceptions, however, 241 yards and a touchdown are par for the course. Considering that Manning was negative in fantasy points for much of this game, his end result is acceptable.
The Falcons are seeing their defensive front mature in front of their eyes, as the middle of their defense held strong without the presence of Curtis Lofton. Matt Ryan was excellent as usual, and Michael Turner lucked out when the Falcons got right up to the line to get him a touchdown. Tony Gonzalez, however, blew past defenders and snagged an obscene seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Unless you have Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, you shouldn’t even have to think about rostering Gonzalez if he’s on your waiver wire.
Pain Heals. Chicks Dig Scars. Glory Lasts Forever.
If you didn’t stick around to hear the diatribe in the postgame show about how awful The Replacements are, then you missed out. No one would defend otherwise, they blew a couple of calls on Monday Night, and it was a generally sloppy performance. However, John Fox replied in his postgame interview, “It was like any other game, it doesn’t matter who the officials are.” It’s as though some media members have never seen the regular officials don’t blow calls! Ed Hochuli can remind you of plenty of embarrassing blown calls that cost teams important games. Let’s give the poor Replacements a chance to get better.
Fin. Week 2 is behind us and Week 3 is waiting to begin on Thursday night. We’ll see matchups between many equally talented and positioned teams in my opinion, so this week could have far-reaching playoff implications. In Week 3 you should start your Giants, Panthers, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Saints, Chargers, Patriots, and Ravens. Also, leave me a comment if I helped make a good or a terrible decision for you this week. I’d love to hear about it. We’ll see you Week 3!
By: Dave Stringer — September 14, 2012 @ 4:05 pm
1. It took all of one week for the notion that San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates would remain injury free in 2012 to come crashing down. Gates suffered a rib injury during the team’s opening week win over the Raiders and was limited to Friday practice prior to the Chargers home game against the Titans this week. He was generally the 3rd tight end off the board in most fantasy drafts based on the belief that he was healthy and would benefit from the free agent defection of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to the Buccaneers. Unfortunately, his fantasy owners will once again need to shuffle their rosters and starting lineups with the rib injury making him a questionable start in Week 2. With San Diego being a west coast team, those decisions aren’t always easy to make at 1:00 p.m. on Sundays.
2.In the offseason, the Falcons let it be known that they planned on opening up their passing attack under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and while most pundits expected that to happen, most didn’t expect the team to go as heavy on the pass as they did in Week 1. Despite the fact they never trailed and won by a score of 40-24, the Falcons ran the ball just 23 times and threw 31 passes. The fantasy prognosis for running back Michael Turner took another hit as he had just 11 carries for 32 yards, just four more carries than backup Jacquizz Rodgers. At this point, Turner shapes up as nothing better than a fantasy backup.
3. Over in Kansas City, the expectation was that the Chiefs would rely heavily on Peyton Hillis early in the season in order to ease Jamaal Charles’ return from a torn ACL that ended his 2011 season in Week 2. However, that scenario did not materialize in Week 1 with Charles getting 16 touches to just 10 for Hillis. While this ratio doesn’t torpedo Hillis’ fantasy value, it certainly does lessen it and makes Charles a much more valuable option earlier in the season than most expected.
4. In St. Louis, the Rams bad luck with injuries has continued with free agent center Scott Wells being placed on injured reserve. Wells was signed to bolster the team’s porous offensive line and help keep franchise quarterback Sam Bradford upright. The loss of Wells lowers the value of running back Steven Jackson as well as Bradford, who will face off against Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III this week in marquee matchup featuring the quarterback the Rams could have had and the one they chose to keep. If you’re wondering what one to keep from a fantasy perspective (and I’m pretty sure you’re not), this little tidbit might help you out. In 27 career starts, Bradford has thrown for 300 or more yards three times while RGIII threw for 300 in his only start. There’s more. Bradford has 92 career rushing yards while RGIII ran for 42 yards last week. Let’s go out on a limb and jump to the conclusion that the Rams probably aren’t too enamored with the NFL’s schedule maker.
 Cutlers was up to his usual tricks and picks Thursday night. 5. The Bears offense crashed back to earth in Week 2 with quarterback Jay Cutler having another awful day against the Packers. Neither outcome should be a surprise since the accolades the team’s offense was getting after dismantling an overmatched Colts defense weren’t exactly deserved. The Bears failed to address the offensive line in the offseason and remain unable to protect Cutler. And, while the addition of Brandon Marshall was a clear upgrade at the wide receiver position, the team lacks a consistent option opposite Marshall with Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and rookie 2nd round pick Alshon Jeffery sharing time at that position. At tight end, the team lacks a proven receiving option and offensive coordinator Mike Tice failed to dial up any screen passes in Week 2 to help slow down the Packers pass rush. While the Bears abysmal offensive performance in won’t likely be repeated any time soon, the team is unlikely to have anything more than a mid-tier offense in 2012, particularly with running back Matt Forte likely to miss time with a high ankle sprain.
6. In Tampa Bay, rookie 1st round pick Doug Martin’s stranglehold on the team’s starting running back position became a little stronger with news that backup LeGarrette Blount suffered a stinger in Week 1. While Blount was clearly being relegated to a backup role, new head coach Greg Schiano has shown a preference for players that avoid the injury bug (witness the trade of tight end Kellen Winslow). That doesn’t bode well for Blount, who faces competition for touches from former Giant D.J. Ware, who is more familiar with new offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan’s playbook from their time together with the Giants.
7. All it took was one week to prove that Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson should not have been a 1st or 2nd round selection in your fantasy draft. While Richardson is clearly a talented back and will have a productive career in the league barring injury, there are too many obstacles for him to have a solid fantasy season in 2012. The Browns offensive line features three largely unproven starters and the team’s group of wide receivers rank near the bottom of the league. At quarterback, rookie1st round pick Brandon Weeden figures to improve as the season progresses but isn’t ready to lift up an offense that lacks playmakers to a respectable level. Cleveland is going to struggle to move the ball on a consistent basis in 2012 and that will likely relegate Richardson to low end RB2 status by season’s end.
8. Washington head coach Mike Shanahan was up to his usual tricks in Week 1, loading up rookie 6th round pick Alfred Morris with 28 carries while dishing out two carries each to Roy Helu, Evan Royster and Darrel Young. The fact Morris started wasn’t exactly as big of a surprise as his huge workload, the most of any running back in the league. For what it’s worth, his production was more volume based than anything, as he accumulated 96 yards and two touchdowns. If I had to make a guess as to whether an NFL talent evaluator was overly impressed by Morris’ performance in Week 1, the guess would be no. Look for the Redskins to have a revolving door at running back once again in 2012 and if I had to roll the dice on one, it would be Helu.
By: Dave Stringer — September 11, 2012 @ 4:04 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Looks like RGIII has a chance to be CNII. Nothing like a bad pun to get the year rolling. RGIII looked poised, calm and efficient on his way to a 19-26, 320-yard, two-touchdown performance and his 42 yards on the ground were just icing on the cake. Let’s call him a low-end fantasy starter until he shows us otherwise.
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Who needs the preseason? Looks like the Jets don’t. After a truly awful offensive performance during the preseason, the Jets blew out the Bills with Sanchez leading the way. He threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns and a pick. It was also nice to see rookie wide receiver Stephen Hill establish himself as a deep threat.
Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
Gabbert looked good in a Week 1 loss to the Vikings, completing 23 passes for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns, all career highs. No, he’s not going to be savior for your fantasy squad this season but he may emerge as a serviceable backup.
Moving Down
Sorry folks, no quarterbacks are getting thrown under the bus after Week 1.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Nobody's arrow is pointing higher than Spiller's right now. C.J. Spiller, Bills
Fred Jackson is out at least a month with a knee sprain, his second injury in two seasons and a reminder that he is 31 years old. Spiller went off on the Jets for 169 yards and a score on just 14 carries while chipping in 25 yards through the air. He performed well replacing Jackson in 2011, accumulating 446 yards rushing, 187 receiving yards and scoring five touchdowns over his last six games.
Alfred Morris, Redskins
Morris got the start for the Redskins this week and put together a solid, if not spectacular, game gaining 96 yards and scoring twice on 28 carries. The rookie 6th round pick is currently the apple in head coach Mike Shanahan’s eye but we all know Shanny has a wandering eye. Quite frankly, his production seemed to be based more on volume than ability. No one should be surprised if this turns out to be his high water mark for the year.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Ridley flashed his ability during his rookie season in 2011 but after 21 carries, 125 yards, and one touchdown in Week 1, it looks like he is ready to carry the mail for the Patriots on a consistent basis. With Shane Vereen unable to stay healthy, Ridley is splitting the work with Danny Woodhead and that is a far better fantasy situation than in 2011 when four players were vying for touches in the New England backfield.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
With Isaac Redman looking like the consummate plodder, Dwyer may have emerged as the team’s starter in Week 1, at least until Rashard Mendenhall gets up to speed. While Dwyer’s numbers weren’t spectacular (9 carries for 43 yards; 2 receptions for 11 yards), he ran hard and looked like the most explosive player in the team’s backfield.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
Ready to bounce back, eh? Four yards on 11 carries against a less than stellar Patriots run defense didn’t do much to lessen the concerns that Johnson went into autopilot after he got his big money deal.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
With Jonathan Stewart inactive and a leaky Bucs run defense on tap, Williams looked like a solid start in Week 1. Not so fast. Williams ran for negative yardage on his six carries. This isn’t an indictment on Williams as much as it is of the team’s offensive line.
Michael Turner, Falcons
With the Falcons moving to a more pass-oriented offense, Turner was expected to see fewer touches in 2012. However, his fantasy owners were hoping he would churn out some yardage in blowouts and that wasn’t in the case in Week 1, with Turner gaining just 32 yards on 11 carries. Since we know he can’t catch the ball, it seems clear that Turner is headed to his worst fantasy production since he was a backup in San Diego.
Isaac Redman, Steelers
He looked awful and that is all there is to say about that.
Alex Green, Packers
No PT for Green this week even though Cedric Benson was (is????) awful so maybe he is not Benson’s handcuff after all.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Kevin Ogletree, Cowboys
After his impressive Week 1 performance with eight receptions for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns (all single game career highs), Ogletree has to be Moving Up. But much like Alfred Morris, don’t sell the farm to get this guy.
Stephen Hill, Jets
Much like Ogletree, Hill has to be Moving Up after a five receptions, 89 yards, and two touchdowns. But let’s face it, the Bills pass defense stunk and Hill likely just used up 25% of his 2012 fantasy production sitting on somebody’s bench. He remains bye week filler but filler you are now more comfortable with.
Lance Moore, Saints
Moore was Drew Brees’ favorite target in Week 1, catching six of the 10 passes thrown his way for 120 yards and a score against the Redskins. While Moore’s target count reflected the fact the Saints were playing from behind early, it is also worth noting that Devery Henderson was targeted just twice. This just might be the year that Moore emerges as a consistent weekly threat in the high-powered Saints offense.
Donald Jones, Bills.
One man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. But in Jones’ case, it is two men’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. With David Nelson out for the year and Fred Jackson out for at least four weeks and the wide receiver depth chart consisting of unproven rookie T.J. Graham and journeyman veterans Ruvell Martin and Brad Smith, Jones figures to get plenty of targets in the coming weeks.
Randall Cobb, Packers
Was it just me or did Cobb seem to spend more time lining up at running back than the Packers actual running backs? With the Pack playing from behind, Cobb gobbled up all nine of his targets for 77 yards, making him worthy to stash on your bench.
Moving Down
David Nelson, Bills
Done. For. The. Year.
Brian Quick, Rams
Nailed. To. The. Bench.
Greg Little, Browns
Brandon Weeden looked awful, partly because Little had one bounce off his hands in the red zone and deflect to an Eagles defender. In Week 1, it was four targets and no catches for Little and a little time on the pine due to a hands problem that plagued him during his rookie season.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Coby Fleener, Colts
The preseason hype was all about how fellow rookie tight end Dwayne Allen looked. After Fleener’s six receptions for 82 yards on 10 targets against the Bears, the Week 1 hype is all about how good Fleener looked.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens
Pitta looked good in Week 1, hauling in five receptions for 73 yards and a score in the Ravens blowout win over the Bengals. Better yet, his 9 targets were a career-high and the touchdown gave him four touchdowns in his last seven games. At this point, Pitta shapes us as the Ravens top receiving tight end in an offense that figures to get almost no production out of its backup wide receivers.
Moving Down
Joel Dreessen, Broncos
While Jacob Tamme was looking impressive in getting five targets and catching all of them for 43 yards and a score, Dreessen had just two looks in Week 1. Looks like this isn’t quite the 1A/1B situation many had predicted entering the season.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:30 am
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! After a successful first year, TMB will try to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump and deliver another great season. Week 1 was certainly exciting enough, from Tony Romo’s reprisal of his past “greatness” to Peyton Manning’s slinging touchdowns from beyond the grave, so let’s get right into it:
Cowboys–Giants
What a contrast between the opening game of 2012 and last year’s Saints–Packers scoring spectacular! This game started with two three-and-outs and it was almost five full minutes off the clock before we saw a first down. The credit for that goes to the Cowboys’ shockingly strong secondary and an always tough-nosed Giants defensive front.
In fact, there wasn’t a score until Michael Boley returned an interception to the 2-yard line (followed by a field goal), and there wasn’t a touchdown until 1:07 remaining in the first half, when Kevin Ogletree decided that he would be the most popular player on the waiver wire after Week 1. Speaking of Ogletree, I didn’t hear any talk about him in the preseason, but his early success should have been visible from a mile away. Tony Romo’s Cowboys always have success with the slot receiver position (Patrick Crayton, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin). As far as the Giants go, this loss really proved nothing. Remember, this team won the Superbowl on a 9-7 record last year.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says, Pt. 1
Chris Collinsworth partaking of the Tony Romo Kool-Aid:
“You can say whatever you want about Tony Romo being the issue, but…that’s not the issue!”
Tony Romo is an interesting character because he has been talked about as an underachiever. It’s as though Romo has already won multiple Superbowls and has just not been performing! On the contrary: This is a quarterback who has been on his way up from past failure, not on his way down from success. Now it seems that Romo’s Week 1 performance is being heralded as a return to greatness, rather than a milestone on the long and hard road to greatness he has never been able to reach.
 Alfred Morris: The Redskins Week 1 running back star. Redskins–Saints
At first, this game looked like it was going to be a classic Saints home game. New Orleans started slow with a three-and-out, held the Skins to a field goal, and then threw a beautiful 20-yard pass to Jimmy Graham. After that, however, the Saints sputtered in a rare home loss to Subway’s favorite quarterback. RGIII had a fresh take for the Saints with a dominant Week 1 performance. Speaking of fresh, how about a fresh name for this year’s inevitably frustrating running back Shanahanigans in Alfred Morris? Shanahan considers mystery around the running back position to be a winning strategy, so plan on playing your Redskins with baited breath each and every week this year.
Colts–Bears
Forgive me for overreacting, but is this the most explosive Chicago Bears offense in history? I’m not saying the 2012 squad is the ultimate Bears team, but I think they have a higher scoring potential than any team in Chi-Town’s past. Cutler, Forte, and Marshall performed admirably, and a new man, Alshon Jeffery, took advantage of the defensive attention on Marshall. As for the Colts, Luck struggled with interceptions in his debut, but he did put up good yardage numbers. I still maintain that no rookie has looked more in control of his offense than Andrew Luck, and Wayne and Fleener appear to be settled in as his two main targets. Take Wayne and Fleener to the bank.
Eagles–Browns
R.E. Shay spoke prophetically about the Eagles’ one-point escape from Cleveland long ago, saying, “Depend on the rabbit’s foot if you will, but remember it didn’t work for the rabbit.” Heed these words Dynasty-believers, as winning with a four-interception game is actually an ill omen. Consider this: How good can your opponent be if they nearly beat you after you give up four interceptions? Don’t bench your Eagles, just temper your expectations until the offense has a chance to gel.
For the Browns, it was a miserable performance in a stellar line of miserable performances. If the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers have a culture of winning, evidenced by their regular-season and playoff dominance, then certainly the Cleveland Browns have an equally prestigious culture of rolling out non-competitive teams and throwing away draft picks. If you didn’t draft a single Brown this year, then I applaud your sage-like wisdom. I don’t believe that Trent Richardson will be a top-20 running back this year.
Rams–Lions
During the broadcast, the announcers were in love with a statement they heard from the Lions: “We have the power of Calvin.” This of course is a reference to Calvin Johnson and his ability to draw defenses away from other receivers, as evidenced by receptions by eight men not named Calvin Johnson on Sunday. However, I submit to you that this also is the accepted unit of measure for general offensive effectiveness. If Calvin Johnson equals 1.0 Calvin, then Titus Young may be .4706 on the Calvin Scale. Look for the Calvin Scale to be the next big thing for measuring skill position players in years to come.
Sam Bradford performed well in a road loss on Sunday (approximately .55 on the Calvin scale), but the rest of his offense is so putrid (.12 Calvin) that his fantasy value will always be limited. Here’s hoping that Bradford gets a trade at the end of his contract.
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever.
The poor souls, hereby known as “The Replacements,” who have the unfortunate task of filling in for the normal referees, seem to get no love by the media. Game after game in Week 1, yours truly heard countless media members slandering The Replacements and salivating over any instance of their error. There were a few errors, but nothing more egregious than the regular referees would make without their normal offseason regimen of clinics and practice. Count me in as rooting for these guys, and I hope Shane Falco’s immortal words give them strength.
Patkowskis–Titans
The usual suspects were out in full force for the Patkowskis, as Brady, Gronk, and Hernandez were all excellent. Also, some of the new players delivered on their promises, for one week at least, as Stevan Ridley had 145 total yards and a touchdown and Brandon Lloyd hauled in 69 yards. For the Titans, this game was no indicator of their possible success this season, as they got down early and struggled to come back. However, with Locker possibly out with a separated shoulder, the Chargers and the Lions may provide a stiff challenge for Matt Hasselbeck, who hasn’t practiced much with the starting squad all offseason.
Falcons–Chiefs
Ah, what would an NFL season be without the annual Week 1 blowout of the Kansas City Chiefs? The Falcons were the lucky benefactors this year, and boy did they cash in! While the Chiefs struggled to knit together two consecutive touchdown-scoring halves, Matt Ryan kept hooking up with his two hyper-talented wide receivers—to the tune of 12 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns, combined. Look for the Falcons to keep up a fantastic fantasy pace this year, and but don’t sell yet on the Chiefs. They usually have at least a short period of fantasy success, but they’re certainly not reliable for in any given week.
Jaguars–Vikings
Outside of an intelligent quarterback, there is nothing I like more in football than the imposing force of a giant wide receiver. Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall are fantastic examples of my favorite type of receiver. However, the elite Justin Blackmon is just as talented as those two, without the off-the-field issues, placing him a step above. In fact, Blackmon could be the next receiver to attain a 1.0 on the Calvin Scale. Also, Marcedes Lewis may have a resurgent year if the Jags’ production keeps up, so you may consider picking him up if you’re weak at TE. Suddenly, the Jags have a potentially explosive offense, something that has not been written about them in at least the past five years.
The keyword for the Vikings offense this Sunday was “relentless.” Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin refused to give up and were rewarded for it. Peterson worked tirelessly to return from an ACL and MCL injury over the offseason and was able to run for 84 yards and two touchdowns in his return performance. Harvin converted his touches into 104 total yards, including a mega-catch in which he dragged a pile of six Jaguars down the field.
Bills–Jets
Hey, remember that time yours truly waxed eloquent in Training Camp Hype about the awful preseason the Jets were having, and how terrible a team must be when one of their two starting quarterbacks played nearly every snap and they still couldn’t muster one single touchdown? Yeah, well, I don’t. The Jets looked great all preseason and Sanchez is destined for a regular season MVP. He’s like 1.75 Calvin! All right, in all seriousness, be wary of the Jets offense going forward. I doubt 48 points will be their average.
In a much bigger blow than a humiliating loss to a divisional rival, Fred Jackson went down during the game and will be out for a few weeks. C.J. Spiller owners should watch this situation closely, as the potential-heavy backup averaged more than 10 yards on 14 carries against a good Jets defense.
Dolphins–Texans
Of the rookie quarterbacks starting Week 1, Ryan Tannehill had the most rookie-like first game. Throwing for 219 yards with three interceptions won’t win many football games, but he did look promising against a ferocious Houston Texans team, and none of the picks were strictly his fault. This Dolphins team is taking baby steps toward forming an identity, and fantasy owners should be patient. There were no revelations for the Texans on Sunday, as the fantasy studs performed just as fantasy studs should. The true test for these Texans is the marathon of the regular season—not the sprint of a Week 1 victory against a Dolphins team that is bailing water.
49ers–Packers
For the 49ers, this is a season of dreams. Since the retirement of Steve Young, their fanbase has been praying for a winning squad. Just like Alex Smith, they narrowly survived Mike “Can’t Win with ‘Em” Singletary and are now in a much better place. The fantasy measureables are tangible now, as Smith, Gore, Crabtree, Davis, and the immortal Randy Moss each put up fantasy numbers that helped many fantasy owners win in Week 1. Keep a close eye on Frank Gore’s carries, however, and Gore owners should make sure Kendall Hunter is on tap to replace the oft-injured running back.
Packers fans are feeling abysmal early this season after some discouraging preseason play and a wallop at home in Week 1. A stouter secondary may have been able to make this game winnable, so Green Bay supporters should not be worried. Continue to start your Packers with gusto.
Sportsmanship
In the preseason and in Week 1, classic schoolyard bully Jim Harbaugh was overreacting to the maximum and trying to get into the heads of The Replacements to manipulate their calls in his favor. Do me a favor and Google the hotheaded head coach frothing at the mouth… it’s downright ghoulish! He is recklessly drawing the line with these officials and may see fines or penalties for his team based on his misconduct. Let’s just hope he doesn’t have to give any refs a mid-field handshake…
Seahawks–Cardinals
In a game that was won only because it had to be, both teams looked generally miserable on Sunday. If you have any Seahawks, it may be worth sitting them for similar options until some fantasy clarity is gleaned. Sidney Rice did catch a touchdown and Lynch did run for 85 yards, but against a team as hapless as the Cardinals, no one put up numbers worthy of their matchup. For the Cardinals, stay away. In my humble opinion, Larry Fitzgerald is not worth what you paid for him, and you should be trying to make an early trade for cents on the dollar (for someone unpopular but talented) while Fitz is still worth anything.
Panthers–Buccaneers
As is typical with any success in the NFL, it is always tempered in its second year. This is most often seen with successful rookie quarterbacks, and RGIII and Luck owners would do well to remember this lesson next year. Cam Newton may come together and be just fine as the year progresses, but this is the first offseason where teams have had the opportunity to truly plan for the preacher’s kid. He still threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two picks and ran for only four yards. The whole Panthers offense could, and likely will, do better.
The Bucs seem to have picked up right where they left off, with little passing efficiency, albeit with a bit more running success. Speaking of running, the LeGarrette Blount ostracism seems to be complete, as he ran once for every eight of Doug Martin’s carries. Martin does look to have the skills and opportunity to be worth your pick, but don’t get too excited until you see it succeed for multiple weeks.
Steelers–Broncos
In what must have been incredibly painful for them and their fans, the Steelers returned to Mile High and saw a result similar to last year’s playoffs. The game ended with a big play from Bay Bay Thomas, but fantasy players should take note that Eric Decker was this close to two touchdowns. Keep in mind that they evenly split 14 targets.
Also, don’t jump to too many conclusions about the Steelers. They were without many starters in Mile High and faced the tireless Peyton Manning. The Steelers O-line looks as though it will fail them every year, and every year they find a way to fall into 10 wins and a playoff berth. Also, it appears that Todd Haley will throw more than the Steelers are accustomed to, which will show inflated numbers for Roethlisberger & co., if successful.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says, Pt. 2
Chris Collinsworth on the excellence of Peyton Manning:
“I don’t know how Peyton’s neck’s doin’—but his brain’s doin’ fine!”
Peyton Manning not only looked healthy, he looked downright spry—even running for a first down in the second quarter. To my bewilderment, the Denver coaching staff insisted on calling plays in the huddle in the first half, but they eventually caved to the no-huddle that Manning is famous for. Hopefully they learned their lesson and will not attempt to rein in the football genius in games to come, as their offense became twice as efficient when Manning was in charge.
Bengals–Ravens
If I was wrong about the Jets in the preseason, I was right about the Ravens. This team is so offensively gifted and so defensively experienced, anything less than an AFC Championship is a failure, and anything less than the Lombardi Trophy is a disappointment. The under-the-radar Ravens showed their might in Week 1, though the score belies that the Bengals actually hung around until late in the third quarter. The Bengals offense looked quite good despite the turnover issue, which should be corrected over the weeks to come. All of the Bengals skill players should see heightened success in future weeks with easier opponents.
Chargers–Raiders
For the Raiders, the play of Darren McFadden was more than encouraging, it was downright impressive. There is only so much a running back can do for his team, though…ask Adrian Peterson. The Raiders offense was generally efficient and also generally ineffective, but it was their special teams that truly spoiled the game by allowing three punts to fail due to incompetence; a losing method taken right out of the 2011 Chargers handbook.
The Chargers weren’t stellar, but Nate Kaeding’s leg once again carried them to victory. If Kaeding is on your waiver wire, he’s likely to be better than whatever kicker you have on your roster. He’s been largely forgotten since he was hurt during the first kickoff of 2011. Rivers threw for fewer yards than Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert but, hey, so did Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, so you can’t be too upset with that. The Chargers look as though the expectations that have given them fits over the years may have finally rolled off their collective back. Here’s hoping for a big Chargers season for all of those fantasy stars on their roster.
And there it is. Week 1 is done and Week 2 is only two days away, as the NFL’s ridiculous Thursday Night Football robs the poor man of a great rivalry. Short weeks favor offenses, however, and I’m excited for the Bears–Packers shootout in Green Bay on Thursday. Outside of those two teams, New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, Carolina, Washington, San Diego, and Denver should be hot in Week 2. See you next Tuesday.
By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2012 @ 1:23 pm
1. The NFL has clearly morphed into a passing league over the past several years with that trend culminating in six quarterbacks throwing for more than 4,600 yards in 2011. While that trend is expected to continue in 2012, there is also a chance that the total passing yardage in the league will decline this season with five teams starting rookie quarterbacks in Week 1. Of those five, only Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck appears poised to post a season with over 3,000 passing yards with the Redskins Robert Griffin III having an outside chance to reach that level of production. However, Russell Wilson is expected to lead a Seahawks offense that will rely heavily on the run while the Browns Brandon Weeden and the Dolphins Ryan Tannehill lead offenses that are devoid of proven playmakers. With so many rookies under center, expect inconsistent production from the wide receivers on these five teams.
 Don't hesitate in taking a flier on James Starks. 2. The fantasy value of Packers running back James Stark has plummeted since the start of training camp, courtesy of his lackluster performance and a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss most of the preseason. The 2010 sixth-round pick has lived up to his label coming out of the draft of being injury-prone and currently sits third on the depth chart behind recently signed Cedric Benson and 2011 third-round pick Alex Green. While Starks’ third string status is clearly problematic, his ascension back to the top of the depth chart may not be as far-fetched as his current fantasy value reflects. There is a reason that Benson was available on the free agent market as teams were wary of his penchant for putting the ball on the ground in 2011 as well as his lack of burst. As for Green, the Packers brass is high on him but he is coming off a torn ACL and the team is wary of overusing him. Add it all up and taking a flyer on Starks in midsize to larger leagues isn’t a bad bet.
3. Fantasy owners are hoping that Week 1 would provide some answers regarding the workload their running backs will receive in the many RBCC backfields in the league. However, injuries and surprising returns from injuries seem certain to keep those answers from being discovered for several weeks. In Carolina, Jonathan Stewart may not be a go in Week 1 while Bengals backup Bernard Scott will not play on opening day. Meanwhile, the Vikings Adrian Peterson and the Steelers Rashard Mendenhall will likely be game time decisions on Sunday as will the Chargers Ryan Mathews on Monday night. Throw in Maurice Jones-Drew’s return from a lengthy holdout, Marshawn Lynch’s back spasms and Mikel Leshoure’s suspension and there will be a whole pile of fantasy owners with tough decisions on who to start in their backfield in Week 1.
4. One of the bigger questions after Week 1 for many fantasy owners will be whether to buy into Kevin Ogletree based on his performance during the Cowboys win over the Giants. Ogletree had the best game of his career, catching 8 of his 11 targets for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Not bad for a player who had accumulated 294 receiving yards during the first three years of his career. He clearly benefited from Jason Witten’s lack of use due to a spleen injury but it is also worth noting that the Cowboys only threw the ball 29 times in the game. Ogletree has an outside chance to replicate Laurent Robinson’s production from a year ago as the team’s third receiver (54 receptions for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns) but he lacks the size to consistently get clean breaks off the line of scrimmage and the Cowboys have been underwhelmed by his consistency in the past. If you are in the market for help at wide receiver, Ogletree is worth grabbing but not likely at the expense of dropping a player who you were high on entering the season.
5. The Rams passing offense featured plenty of question marks entering training camp and the preseason did little to provide any answers to those questions. In fact, the team’s passing attack enters the season looking worse than predicted. Rookie receivers Brian Quick, chosen in the 2nd round, and Chris Givens, taken in the 4th round, did little to differentiate themselves from the pack of veterans led by Steve Smith and Brandon Gibson. Only diminutive Danny Amendola is assured of consistent playing time at wide receiver throughout the year. Making matters worse for the Rams were the surprise decisions to release backup quarterback Kellen Clemens and backup tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, leaving undrafted rookie free agent Austin Davis backup up Sam Bradford and no proven pass catching tight end to compliment Lance Kendricks.
6. The Cardinals made the not altogether surprising decision to demote Kevin Kolb from the starting lineup in favor of John Skelton. Kolb has struggled during his short stay in Arizona and Skelton went 6-2 as the Cardinals quarterback last season. While Skelton’s ascension to the starting lineup shouldn’t surprise, the Cardinals have not committed to using him as their starter for the entire season. More than likely, Kolb will get a shot to reclaim the job at some point as Skelton’s lack of accuracy is almost sure to land him in the doghouse with the team’s coaching staff.
By: Dave Stringer — August 16, 2012 @ 2:21 pm
 Aaron Rodgers: The top QB in fantasy football.
Much like Peyton Manning used to be considered money in the bank as the league’s elite fantasy signal caller, that throne has now been passed to Aaron Rodgers. Entering his fifth season as the Packers starter, Rodgers has finished as the 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st rated fantasy quarterback with the 2011 season rating as his most remarkable season to date. Despite sitting out the finale, Rodgers set career highs in passing yards (4,643) and touchdowns (45), topping his previous best of 30 by 15. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he also chipped in 257 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, bring his season averages as a starter in those categories to 281 and four. Shall we continue? The Packers have the best group of wide receivers in the league and go five deep at the position. Their tight end has the potential to emerge a notch below Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Their head coach treats the running game as an afterthought. Rodgers is just 28 years old, the age where most quarterbacks are entering their prime. Could he be even better in 2012? Well, if he starts all 16 games, why not? We wouldn’t go so far as to predict that but we wouldn’t discount the possibility. If Rodgers isn’t the first quarterback off the board in your league, then join a new one. After Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are gone, feel free to grab Rodgers. And if you are picking in the top three and really love him, go for it. As noted, he’s money in the bank.
The Packers spent the offseason talking up Starks and his potential as a workhorse back in their offense. Then they signed Cedric Benson midway through training camp after Starks suffered a turf toe injury. Some players spend their whole careers on the cusp of earning a major role and you get the feeling that will be the story of James Starks. A 6th round pick in the 2010 draft, he entered the league with the reputation of being injury prone and he’s spent his career backing up that claim, having missed 13 games of his rookie season due to injury and then three more in 2012 while also playing nicked up in numerous other contests. Starks entered training camp as a solid RB3 with upside given the expectation that he would not be splitting the job with a veteran back like he did with Ryan Grant. However, with Benson likely to earn a roster spot, Starks is a RB4 and most likely best suited to using in the flex role in leagues that use that position.
With a pile of injuries at the running back position, the Packers restocked midway through training camp by signing Cedric Benson. Despite topping 1,000 rushing yards in each of the three previous seasons, there was little market for Benson’s services this offseason but he will get a decent opportunity to earn a starting role in Green Bay. Or he may enter the season on the street. With the Packers not paying him any signing bonus, it is clear that Benson will need to prove his worth in the preseason in order to make the roster. However, with James Starks’ return from turf toe uncertain and Alex Green recovering from a torn ACL, it seems likely that Benson will open the season either in a starting role or in a reserve capacity. It’s too early to tell what the Packers plans for him are but he is worth taking a flier on given his potential starting role in the league’s best offense.
The Packers liked Green enough to select him in the third round of the 2011 draft but he spent his rookie season nailed to the bench before suffering a season ending ACL tear in Week 7. Green shaped up as a potential late round flier in 2012 as the player most likely to enter the season behind James Starks on the depth chart but injuries at the running back position forced the Packers to sign free agent Cedric Benson part of the way through training camp. With Benson on the roster and Green on a reduced workload as he recovers from his injury, don’t expect much from him in 2012. Given Starks’ struggles with injuries and inconsistency, Green is a decent dynasty league prospect but he’s little more than a lottery ticket in 2012.
Like the other Packers running backs, Saine’s value took a hit when Cedric Benson was signed in training camp. Saine played reasonably well in a backup role after earning a roster spot as an undrafted rookie free agent and seemed like a decent bet to be used in a pass receiving role when training camp opened. While that may still be the case, Benson’s presence coupled with reports indicating that fellow backup Alex Green’s rehab from a torn ACL is going well have torpedoed what little fantasy value Saine had. Grab him off the waiver wire if he plays well early in the season.
Jennings was on pace to set a career high in receptions, reach double digit touchdowns for the third time in five years (nine in 2008) and top 1,000 receiving yards for the fourth season in a row when he suffered a sprain knee in Week 14 that caused him to miss the rest of the regular season. While the timing of his injury was unfortunate and likely sank the fortunes of many of his fantasy owners, Jennings has remained injury free for most of his career, missing just eight games during his six years in the league. Although Jordy Nelson emerged as one of the league’s better receivers in 2011, Jennings remains the Packers most explosive playmaker at the position and the receiver opposing defensive coordinators are most focused on. While Jennings isn’t a typical diva receiver, it doesn’t hurt that he is entering a contract year. With Jennings, you get consistent production on a year over year basis as well as on a weekly basis as he topped double digit fantasy points in nine of the twelve full games he played last season. In two of the other three games, he put up 8 and 9 points. As fantasy wide receivers go, Jennings has plenty to offer. Consider him a mid-tier WR1 in 2012.
While it’s not exactly fair to say that Nelson burst onto the scene in 2011 since he had showcased some playmaking ability during his first three years in the league, it is fair to say that he shocked those outside of the Packer Nation with his performance last season. Nelson finished as the 2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 68 reception, 1,263 yard, 15 touchdown season. What is perhaps even more remarkable is that Nelson put up those numbers despite being targeted just 96 times, easily the lowest amount of any top 10 fantasy receiver. Nelson clearly benefited from consistently facing single coverage, hauling in eight touchdowns on passes of 36 yards or more. While Nelson may get more targets in 2012, expecting another 15-touchdown performance isn’t very realistic. It’s also worth noting that Nelson also benefitted from the absence of Greg Jennings down the stretch, as he racked up 20 receptions for 387 yards and six touchdowns between Weeks 14 and 17. With so many mouths to feed, Nelson isn’t going to get the 140 or more targets that many top wide receivers get but expect another productive season in 2012, one that will likely rank him as a lower tier WR1 or upper tier WR2.
Since Driver’s string of seven 1,000 yards seasons over last eight years ended in 2009, he has gone from being a solid fantasy producer to a bit of a vulture in the Packers offense. Driver was targeted 56 times in 2011, hauling in 37 receptions for 445 yards and six touchdowns. However, unless you had a chance to be a fly on the wall in the Packers game planning meetings, you wouldn’t ever know when to start him. With younger players James Jones and Randall Cobb in the fold as backups, Driver wouldn’t even see a big increase in targets if starters Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson were lost to injury. Driver isn’t worth owning in 2012.
Poor James Jones. Despite spending almost his entire career as a backup, he has averaged 46 receptions for 608 yards and 4.8 touchdowns per season during the four years that he has played 16 games. That’s pretty solid production for a backup. Unfortunately, when he hit the free agent market prior to the 2011 season, the market for his services never developed and he re-signed in Green Bay. Then the Packers drafted Randall Cobb in the 2nd round of last year’s draft and kept aging veteran Donald Driver. Both players return in 2012, meaning Jones will once again split the backup role with two other players. While it helps matters that the Packers love to play with five wide formations, Jones doesn’t get fed enough (just 55 targets last season) to make him fantasy relevant. Unless he gets a new home during the preseason, Jones will shape up as a low end WR4 or as a WR5 in 2012.
Taken in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft, Cobb looked like a future stud after he took a kickoff back for a touchdown and caught a nifty 32 yard touchdown pass in the Packers opening game of the season. While he showcased his play-making ability in that game, it didn’t change Green Bay’s plans to limit his role and Cobb ended up finishing the season with just 31 targets, catching 25 passes for 375 yards and that one touchdown. Unfortunately for Cobb, the Packers re-signed aging veteran Donald Driver in the offseason and James Jones remains on the roster despite reports indicating that the team was considering moving him. As we noted last season, most 2nd round receivers end up getting a decent shot at playing time but that’s a difficult proposition when you play on a team with the deepest, most talented group of wide receivers in the league and one that also possesses a Pro Bowl quality tight end. While it’s easy to love Cobb’s game and potential, it’s pretty much impossible to love his fantasy prospects for 2012. He’s waiver wire material this season but a solid prospect in dynasty formats.
While the sky may be the limit in terms of Finley’s upside, the fact remains that he was mostly a bust in 2011 even though the season-ending numbers indicate that he finished last season as the fifth ranked fantasy tight end with 55 receptions for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. Unfortunately for his owners, Finley was the most inconsistent top ten fantasy tight end. Of his 124.7 fantasy points, 26.5 came during a three-touchdown performance in Week 3, 12.4 came in Week 17 (when most leagues were finished) and he had double digit point performances just three times in the first 16 weeks of the season. In his 13 non-double digit performances during weeks 1-16, he averaged just 4.7 points per game. The issue with Finley isn’t talent, it is lack of opportunity as he finished with the lowest average targets per game amongst the top 10 fantasy tight ends. And with the Packers returning all of their key skill position players on offense, why should we expect much to change in 2012? Consider Finley a mid-tier starting fantasy tight end with upside but one whose inconsistent production may frustrate you.
By: Dave Stringer — August 15, 2012 @ 9:10 am
 Stafford led the league with 663 attempts last season.
Considered an injury risk heading into his third year in the league in 2011, Stafford proved his doubters wrong by putting together a Pro Bowl quality season (although he miraculously wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl) by throwing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. With the Lions struggling to run the ball, Stafford led a high flying passing attack that threw the ball 663 times and attempted more passing plays than any team in the league. Perhaps most impressively, Stafford was able to produce in the clutch, leading the Lions to big comeback wins over the Cowboys, the Vikings and the Raiders in helping Detroit secure their first playoff spot in more than a decade. If you were looking for consistency, Stafford provided that too by registering fewer than 19 fantasy points just once. That’s what happens when you throw for multiple touchdowns 12 times, have eight 300-yard passing games and fail to throw for 250 yards just four times. What’s in store for 2012? Provided Stafford remains healthy, and it is worth noting that four shoulder injuries caused him to miss 19 of his first 32 games in the league, he should finish the season as a top five fantasy quarterback. With Calvin Johnson in the fold and Titus Young expected to build on his impressive rookie season, Stafford has explosive weapons at wide receiver as well as a solid tight end in Brandon Pettigrew, not to mention perhaps a shiny new toy in 2nd round pick Ryan Broyles. While Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady need to be the first quarterbacks off the board, you could make a strong argument that Stafford needs to go number three.
When Lions head coach Jim Schwartz announced that Best was “week to week” early in training camp, that swirling sound you heard was his fantasy value heading down the drain. The Lions first round pick in the 2010 draft, Best’s first two seasons in the league have been derailed by injuries, including a devastating concussion that forced him to miss the final 10 games of last season. Concussions were also an issue for Best in college so the prognosis for 2012, and the rest of his career for that matter, remains highly uncertain. That is unfortunate because Best is a dynamic playmaker when healthy, capable as an outside runner and a receiving threat out of the backfield. In six games last year, Best averaged 112.8 yards from scrimmage and 14.3 PPG, which is RB1 territory. Since we don’t know when or if Best will return to action and we also don’t know the Lions plans for him if he does return in a backfield that could run three deep with Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure, taking Best in your fantasy draft is a huge gamble. He is nothing more than a late round flier until we see him on the field.
After being a 2nd round selection in the 2011 draft, Leshoure’s prospects looked rosy. Let’s run down Leshoure’s running back opportunity checklist as it looked heading into this rookie season. Incumbent is coming off a disappointing season? Check. Incumbent is injury prone? Check. Incumbent isn’t a great short yardage back? Check. Unfortunately a torn Achilles tendon ended Leshoure’s rookie season in the preseason and he enters 2012 with some major question marks, specifically maturity issues that resulted in the league imposing a two-game suspension and a hamstring problem that caused him to miss the early part of training camp. The suspension came from not one but two marijuana charges so Leshoure’s clearly got some growing up to do. Basically, the Lions don’t know what they have in Leshoure and neither do we. He’s a big back who should excel in short yardage work but he faces competition from Kevin Smith and possibly Jahvid Best for playing time, a pair of backs whose pass catching skills make them better fits in the Lions offense. Leshoure is worth taking a flier on but don’t reach for him expecting him to emerge as an upper tier RB2 in 2012.
Jahvid Best isn’t day to day, he is week to week. Mikel Leshoure is going to sit out the first two weeks of the season due to a suspension and up until mid-August, he had missed most of training camp due to a sore hamstring. Meet the Lions expected starting running back to open the season – Kevin Smith. What was old is new again in Detroit’s backfield. The old man of the Lions backfield at the ripe old age of 25, Smith returned to the fold in midseason last year, taking over the lion’s share of the team’s running back duties over the final seven games of the season. He put up 535 total yards and scored seven touchdowns over that stretch, despite playing through injuries himself. A solid fit in the Lions offense due to his ability to catch the ball (he had 79 receptions during his first two years in the league), Smith must overcome his own injury history in 2012. He starts the season with a big opportunity and that isn’t something most expected when the Lions chose not to place a RFA tender on him after the 2010 season. Consider Smith a high risk, high reward RB3 this season.
Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald says Calvin Johnson is the top fantasy wide receiver entering 2012 and we’ll take his word for it. The beast known as Megatron posted career highs across the board in 2011, with 158 targets, 96 receptions, 1,681 receiving yards and 16 touchdown passes, finishing the season as the top ranked fantasy wide receiver with a whopping 16.5 FPts/G. If you’re looking for something to quibble about, it would be Johnson’s production during a five game stretch between Weeks 10 and 14 when Johnson failed to top 100 receiving yards in any game and caught just one touchdown pass. Other than that, it was all sunshine as Johnson hit double-digit fantasy points twelve times and topped 100 receiving yards eight times. Since Johnson has the ability to regularly beat double and even triple teams, he is basically money in the bank given his lack of missed time during his five-year career (just three missed games). The only potential red flag is the health of quarterback Matt Stafford, who put together his first 16 game season in 2011. Megatron needs to be the first wide receiver off the board in 2012 and he makes for a solid 1st round pick. No other wide receiver is even close.
Looking to replenish their wide receiver depth chart and provide quarterback Matthew Stafford with another offensive weapon, the Lions wisely used a second round pick in 2011 to acquire Young. And Young didn’t disappoint, putting together a solid rookie season during which he showcased his solid playmaking skills. Despite lacking ideal size at 5’11”, 174 pounds, Young proved capable of lining up outside and finished his rookie season with 48 receptions for 607 yards and six touchdowns. After putting up decent numbers over his first seven games, the speedy Young came on down the stretch catching 33 of his 52 targets over his final nine games for 398 yards and all six of his touchdowns while averaging 8.4 FPts/G over that stretch. That’s WR3 territory, folks. While the Lions figure on passing less in 2012, they will still chuck it around plenty and Young has earned a bigger role at Nate Burleson’s expense. That bodes well for Young’s fantasy prospects as does lining up opposite Calvin Johnson. Look for Young to build upon his solid rookie season and emerge as a low end WR3 in 2012, provided he keeps his maturity issues in check. He is a solid dynasty league prospect.
In 2011, Burleson had a bigger role in the Lions offense, seeing increases in his targets (86 to 110), completion to target percentage (66.4% in 2011), receptions (73, a career high) and yards (757). That’s the good news. And here’s the bad. Burleson seems to have lost whatever explosiveness he had left, with his yards per reception dropping for the second consecutive season (from 12.9 to 11.4 to 10.4) and his touchdown count declining from six to three. Did we mention the Lions have used 2nd round picks in consecutive years (Titus Young in 2011 and Ryan Broyles this year) to upgrade the wide receiver position? The writing is on the wall, folks. Young had a solid rookie season and figures to earn more looks in 2012, pushing Burleson inside to a slot receiving role more frequently. Considering the Lions are likely to throw it less than they did in 2012 when they led the league in passing plays, Burleson’s fantasy prospects this season aren’t looking so great. And it’s not like he was great in 2011, averaging just 5.9 FPts/G. He’s a WR5 with little upside.
Despite having three solid wide receivers, the Lions used a 2nd round pick on Oklahoma wide receiver Ryan Broyles even though Broyles suffered a torn ACL last November. The pick was panned somewhat but with Nate Burleson aging and chewing up a decent chunk of salary cap space, Broyles figures to line up as the team’s main slot receiver within a year or two. And there’s a chance he could earn some looks at some point in 2012. More quick than fast and lacking ideal size at 5’10” and 188 pounds, Broyles isn’t a candidate to earn a major role outside but he caught a ton of balls in college, making him an intriguing flier in deep, PPR leagues, although he may not be fully recovered early in the season. Look for Broyles to have a limited role early in the season but monitor his usage and consider him a potential waiver wire candidate by mid-season. He rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect given his potential role as a target eating slot receiver in a young Lions offense.
With the Lions stable of running backs struggling with injuries and failing to provide the team with consistent production, Pettigrew emerged as a solid receiving option on short routes and was a target machine, finishing 2011 with the second highest target total amongst tight ends with a whopping 126. Unfortunately, that caused his yards per reception to drop to 9.4 as Pettigrew finished the season with 83 receptions for 777 yards and five touchdowns. While that is solid production, it is hard to predict a breakout season for Pettigrew in 2012. If he is going break out, it is going to have to result from increasing his touchdown count. The problem there is that the Lions possess the top wide receiver red zone threat in the league in Calvin Johnson. Also not helping matters is the presence of backup tight end Tony Scheffler who pilfered six touchdowns last season. In 2012, look for Pettigrew to post similar production to what he put up in 2011, making him a lower tier fantasy starter.
The Lions reduced Scheffler’s role in their offense during his second year with the team but he still managed to put together a solid 2011 season. Playing second fiddle to a fully healthy Brandon Pettibrew, Scheffler saw his targets decrease from 72 to 42 but his fantasy points increase from 44 to 71. That’s making more with less, folks. Scheffler’s point total jump is directly attributable to his touchdown production as he emerged as a solid option in the red zone, catching five touchdowns between the opposition’s 10 and 20 yard line. While his 2011 production was amazing considering his target total, it is not hard to consider it a bit of a fluke considering he caught a touchdown pass every seven targets. If Pettigrew were to go down, Scheffler is productive enough that he would likely emerge as an upper tier fantasy backup.
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