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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Mike MacGregor — June 18, 2012 @ 12:55 am
I was recently invited to participate in the Dynasty Experts League hosted by Dynasty League Football. It is a 12-team, PPR scoring and individual defensive player lineup format league. This is a pure dynasty league, with all players held over every year. A combined rookie and free agent draft takes place in early June.
The league is entering its fourth season, but I’m onboard starting this year taking over an existing team. Fortunately for me, the team was well managed in terms of stocking it with young talent that should serve me well years into the future. That talent includes Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Daniel Thomas, Jonathan Baldwin, Steve Johnson, Denarius Moore, Torrey Smith, Jimmy Graham, Brandon Pettigrew and Colin McCarthy, plus the 1.04 pick in the 2012 rookie draft and a pair of first round picks in 2013.
Like I said, I’m fortunate to acquire such a team with a nice strong nucleus of stars, especially Newton, Graham, Moore and Smith, even if the roster is light at RB. We recently completed the draft, and I wanted to share some of the moves and picks I made to get from my starting roster to today.
After I took over the team, trade requests from the other sharks started pouring in almost immediately. What do you want for Cam? What is the asking price for Graham? Are you willing to trade the 4th pick?
Whoa, baby. I don’t see any reason to go gangbusters out of the gate here. I will patiently pick my trade spots to balance out making this team competitive both short and long-term – in essence, to build a dynasty. Trade Cam and Graham? Uh, no.
So with that out of the way, the big pre-draft decision is what to do with the 4th pick. This team is light at RB and set at QB. The likely best options when I’m on the clock will be one of Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck, and Justin Blackmon.
Doug Martin is who I want. Fantasy Sharks in the first overall spot is not trading it away, so the idea of getting Trent Richardson is a dead end. I do love what I’ve read about Martin and the situation he landed in. The problem is I think Footballguys could take him 2nd overall. If FBG lets him pass, I don’t think Sharks, who also own the 1.03 pick, will take Martin, instead opting for one of Griffin or Luck.
After some jostling back and forth with FBG about the cost to swap picks, he seems open to the idea, but I push my luck by letting him make the pick to see if I could possibly get Martin at four. He picks Martin. Trade! I managed to swing the following deal:
FF Today gives:
Pick 1.04
Pick 2.05
LB Colin McCarthy
Footballguys gives:
RB Doug Martin (Pick 1.02)
Pick 2.02
LB Jerod Mayo
I’m happy with this deal. I prefer McCarthy to Mayo, as did FBG obviously, but certainly a downgrade I can live with to acquire Martin and move up 3 spots in the second round. This is what can happen when you have two people on the same page about player value, each of us recognizing the 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks are very even in 2012 rookie dynasty drafts.
Okay, now on to the draft. You can check the whole draft report for all of the picks, and here is a summary of picks for Team FF Today:
1.02 RB Doug Martin, TB (via trade)
2.02 WR Rueben Randle, NYG
2.04 LB Luke Kuechly, CAR
3.04 S Mark Barron, TB
4.04 DE Cameron Wake, MIA
5.04 K Matt Prater, DEN
6.04 RB Dion Lewis, PHI
7.04 CB Cortland Finnegan, STL
8.04 WR Steve Smith, STL
One other deal to report had me sending RB Mikel Leshoure to Fantasy Sharks in exchange for WR Doug Baldwin and WR Mike Williams (Bucs). True, my team is light at RB, but I’m not keen on LeShoure and from a value standpoint, this looked like a great deal if Williams can rebound reasonably well from his sophomore slump.
So there you have it, all of the changes to the roster I started with less than a month ago, to get to my roster today. Each owner was required to answer the following questions about the draft, and I’ve included my answers here.
1. What was the best value pick in the draft?
1.10 WR Kendall Wright – I guess I’ve read more about Brian Quick since Fantasy Sharks took him at 1.07, causing Michael Floyd and Wright to fall down the board, but even if I accept Quick as a better prospect amongst those three, I disagree with TE Coby Fleener getting drafted in front of Floyd/Wright. Fantasy Sharks seemed to get caught up in drafting for need at that point instead of BPA with so many picks to play with. The result was an excellent value for Pro Football Focus nabbing, surprisingly (Bryan said it himself), Wright down at 1.10. Between a gimpy Kenny Britt and Joe Average Nate Washington, Wright has immediate impact opportunity, and finds himself with a better long-term answer at QB and team I feel is more likely to be on the upswing than the Rams or Cardinals.
Honorable mention: 4.06 TE Dwayne Allen, 4.12 QB Russell Wilson
2. What pick was the biggest reach or most surprising selection in the draft?
1.08 TE Coby Fleener – I’ll lay off Smitty of DraftCalc for the oft-mentioned DeAngelo Hall pick in the late second round, because if I don’t I’m sure I’ll be playing against him the week Hall has his 3 INT game. I’ll come back to Fleener as mentioned above… it seemed too early for a guy at a position that is deep with prospects already 1-2 years in the league, and drafted by a team that drafted two TEs. Sure, Fleener got drafted higher, but I’m not convinced he’ll be the prime receiving choice ahead of Allen and I certainly don’t expect a Gronkowski-Hernandez part deux in Indy anytime soon. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think from a value standpoint Sharks had a good chance to wait on Fleener to nearly the mid-2nd round.
Honorable mention: 2.10 CB DeAngelo Hall, 2.12 CB Darrelle Revis (hell, I’ll take my chances!)
3. Who has helped their team the most to compete this year?
ESPN/Scouts Inc. – To answer this question, you’ve got to look at the trades because there were some big ones. ESPN/Scouts did lose McCoy, Nicks and Brees in their wheeling and dealing, but on the flip side gained Maclin, Fred Davis, Antonio Brown, Vick, Cutler, Steve Smith (CAR), Brandon Marshall, Gresham, Peppers. Adding Ronnie Hillman in the draft should make an immediate impact, although Lamar Miller will not (but I like the pick and considered him strongly over Kuechly). Definitely lost some star power but stocked his starting lineup from top to bottom, plus depth, with solid fantasy contributors that will make this team a challenge to play against every week.
4. Who has had the best draft for building some talent long term, over the next few years?
Fantasy Sharks – This team was loaded for bear with picks in this draft, so they are the hands down winner in this category. I kept checking his roster to see if there was some sort of roster exemption, to understand where he was fitting all of those prospects. This team is pretty competitive right now, already having Romo, Murray, A.J. Green, Bryant, Julio Jones, Gronkowski and then adding Richardson, plus hope for the best immediately from Blackmon, Quick and Fleener. It will be interesting if this team does jump out well this season to see if Jim will go the patient route and stick with all of these young guys, or pawn some off for older stars supporting a perhaps earlier than planned title run.
5. Two teams most likely to be in the title game this year?
Dynasty League Football over Fantasy Sharks
I purposely excluded FF Today from consideration as answers to the questions, but clearly, FF Today is the team that made itself the most competitive. Even if not this year, perennial title game appearances are on the horizon.
By: Dave Stringer — June 5, 2012 @ 4:23 pm
With the first wave of free agency and the draft complete, here are my updated 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions – If anybody else were here, you would quit reading.
2. Roddy White, Falcons – These days, everybody likes the shiny, new gadget. In Atlanta, I like the old gadget and look no further than his performance from Week 11 to 17 last season (733 yards and five touchdowns).
3. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jordy Nelson put up better numbers but Jennings remains the Big Dog in the Packers receiving corps.
4. Wes Welker, Patriots – Sorry, Patriots fans, but the presence of Brandon Lloyd means more shots down the field and fewer opportunities for Welker.
5. Marques Colston, Saints – Over his last 11 games, Colston put up 985 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, making him the 3rd ranked wide receiver over that period. Then he put up 256 receiving yards and a score in two playoff games. Also doesn’t hurt that Robert Meachem left town.
6. Mike Wallace, Steelers – With Rashard Mendenhall out, Wallace figures to be featured even more in 2012.
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants – See Greg Jennings, remove Jordy Nelson, insert Victor Cruz. A broken foot ruined his offseason but Nicks is expected to be good to go by Week 1.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – With perhaps the second worst quarterback play in the league last season, Fitzgerald still managed 80 receptions for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns. Unfortunately, recent reports that John Skelton was being given every chance to unseat Kevin Kolb lead us to believe the quarterback play might not be much better in 2012.
9. Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin was unstoppable over the Vikings final nine games, putting up 691 receiving yards, 176 rushing yard and eight touchdowns. With Adrian Peterson coming off a torn ACL, Harvin should be solid once again in 2012.
10. A.J. Green, Bengals – If there was one reason to watch the Bengals last year, A.J. Green was it. If Andy Dalton keeps improving, Green is destined to be a top 5 fantasy wide receiver by 2013 at the latest.
11. Andre Johnson, Texans – The last two seasons have proven that Johnson isn’t getting any younger and he recently had arthroscopic surgery on his knee, further validating that he is an injury risk at this point of his career.
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers – This guy will prove that his 2011 production (1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 68 receptions) was no fluke. Expect an increase on the 96 targets he had last season.
13. Brandon Marshall, Bears – Will being reunited with Jay Cutler make Marshall a top 10 fantasy wide receiver once again? Not quite.
14. Victor Cruz, Giants – I keep reading his stat line (1,536 yards and nine touchdowns) and I keep pinching myself.
15. Miles Austin, Cowboys – Just 27 years old, Austin is entering his 7th season in the league. He remains wonderfully talented but he couldn’t stay healthy last season.
16. Julio Jones, Falcons – This kid is dynamite but his hammies cause me some concern.
17. Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Let’s face it. This guy has top five potential but he’s not going to get there with the 6.9 targets per game he had last year.
18. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Quarterback Matt Cassel was lost in Week 10. Prior to that, Bowe was the 7th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Yes, Tyler Palko killed his fantasy value.
19. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers – The Chargers offense is better than the Bucs and Josh Freeman is no match for Philip Rivers.
20. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith had a renaissance season in 2011, catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. However, he will be 33 years old on opening day and the Panthers passing attack won’t surprise anybody in 2012.
21. Steve Johnson, Bills – It doesn’t feel right putting him this low but he has benefited from a lot of targets and the production opposite him can’t be as bad as it was last year. Or can it?
22. Antonio Brown, Steelers – Breakout season in 2011 but lack of touchdowns hurts his fantasy value. Doesn’t help that Emmanuel Sanders figures to be healthy for 2012.
23. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – I’m making the call that the ten touchdowns he scored as part of the Eagles high-flying 2010 offense were an aberration.
24. Robert Meachem, Chargers – Meachem has plenty of talent but injuries and inconsistency plagued him in New Orleans. He gets the first crack at replacing Vincent Jackson in San Diego.
25. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Recent legal troubles notwithstanding, DHB’s career trajectory is clearly on the upswing (124 yards to 366 to 974 last season).
26. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – He’s risky and wildly inconsistent but there’s no way he can be as bad he was last year.
27. Torrey Smith, Ravens – Meet Baltimore’s new number one receiver.
28. Eric Decker, Broncos – Don’t you get the impression that Decker is going to be the chain mover in the Broncos offense?
29. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – I read that Thomas is the most physically gifted wide receiver that Peyton Manning has ever played with. Unfortunately, he’s not the best receiver that Manning ever played with. And the injury history cannot be ignored.
30. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Repeat after me. Top wide receiver on a doormat that will have to throw plenty. Garbage time production, folks.
Moving out from my initial rankings are Brandon Lloyd of the Patriots and the 49ers Michael Crabtree.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 9:22 am
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings.
1. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Given his inexperience, you could make a strong argument that he has more upside than any tight end in the league.
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – He’s a Beast but is he a Beast that can stay healthy?
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 games last season. It doesn’t hurt that he also got some looks in the running game as the season wound down.
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers – The bad news is that he has missed nine games in the last two seasons. The good news is that he averaged 13.8 points per game in 2010 when Vincent Jackson missed most of the season and Jackson left for Tampa Bay.
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys – With Laurent Robinson having a solid season as the team’s third wide receiver, Witten had just 117 targets, his lowest total since the 2006 season. It is nice that Robinson isn’t in Dallas anymore. Not so nice is Witten’s production over the Cowboys final six games (272 receiving yards and no touchdowns).
6. Jermichael Finley, Packers – Is he a tease or the dominant player he appeared to be in 2010 and one who deserves more targets in 2012?
7. Vernon Davis, 49ers – Are you getting the Davis who dominated in two playoff games last season (292 yards and four touchdowns) or the one who averaged six targets a game in the regular season (792 yards and six touchdowns). Head coach Jim Harbaugh will decide.
8. Brent Celek, Eagles – Persona non grata in 2010 and for the first six games of 2011, Celek reemerged as a weapon for the Eagles over the final 10 games of last season, catching 53 passes for 738 yards and five touchdowns. A lot of that was in the screen game in order to help the team’s pass blocking and left tackle Jason Peters may miss most of 2012.
9. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – The Falcons figure to have a solid offense once again but I am not sold that the 36-year Gonzalez can repeat his 875 yard, seven touchdown performance from a year ago. Gonzo is going to need to increase his touchdown count to repeat as a top 5 tight end.
10. Dustin Keller, Jets – On the bright side, the Jets have no proven starting wide receiver opposite Santonio Holmes and Keller has started the season on fire in each of the last two years. Over the four games of the last two seasons, he has totaled 515 yards and seven touchdowns. Unfortunately, he has not been able to sustain those hot starts and has scored just three touchdowns over the final 12 games over the last two seasons. The talent is there and he is in a contract year so maybe 2012 will be the first time Keller puts it together for an entire season.
11. Fred Davis, Redskins – If you watched any Redskins games last year, it was readily apparent that Davis has major upside. Look no further than his 8.1 points per game last season, 5th best amongst tight ends. With better wide receivers in Washington this season, a rookie quarterback and his 2011 suspension, Davis carries some risk and that is why he isn’t higher on the list. However, it won’t be a surprise if he is in the top five by season’s end.
12. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew had the 2nd most targets amongst tight ends last season with 126 but was the 11th ranked fantasy player at his position so you could make the argument that he has a lot of upside. And you would be wrong. He catches a lot of passes (83 last year) but not for a lot of yards (10.0 career yards per reception). In Detroit’s offense, he gets few looks down the field and is mostly a check down option in the passing game.
Just missing from my list are Jermaine Gresham of Cincinnati, Jared Cook of the Titans, the Broncos Jacob Tamme and Owen Daniels of the Texans.
By: Dave Stringer — May 27, 2012 @ 5:17 pm
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football running rankings.
1. Arian Foster, Texans – Foster proved in 2011 that his monster breakout season in 2010 was no fluke. A hamstring injury that caused him to miss two starts and leave early in another game and a Week 17 breather were the only issues preventing Foster from repeating as the top fantasy running back last season. A pair of key defections on the offensive line and his new contract are the only red flags.
2. Ray Rice, Ravens – With Ricky Williams backing him up, Rice still managed 2,068 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011, both career highs. Williams retired this offseason and while Baltimore added rookie Bernard Pierce to the mix, Rice figures to approach 400 touches (395 last season) again in 2012, provided he doesn’t hold out.
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy finished second in fantasy points amongst running backs in 2011, topping 1,600 total yards for the second consecutive season and scoring a career-high 20 touchdowns. He clearly benefited from quarterback Michael Vick’s lack of rushing touchdowns (just one in 2011 after scoring nine times in 2010). Vick’s presence, the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to a potentially season-ending injury is the only concern.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – What is there to say. MJD was gold last season even though the Jaguars featured the worst quarterback play in the league, gaining 1,980 total yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. Since taking over as the team’s starter three seasons ago, he has averaged 117 total yards per game while topping 1,600 yards every year. Imagine what he can do if Blaine Gabbert picks up his game.
5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – With Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles having left town over the past two off-seasons, Mathews is the Big Dog in San Diego in 2012 and the only thing holding him back from being a superstar is injuries. Despite missing two games and having a reduced workload in two others, he still managed 1,546 total yards and six touchdowns last season. LeRon McClain is a marginal threat to take over Tolbert’s goal line duties but the expectation is that Mathews will assume that role. It was also nice to see the Chargers not address the running back position in the draft until the 7th round.
6. Chris Johnson, Titans – He’s just too good and his ego too big to have two consecutive down years. Right?
7. Matt Forte, Bears – Forte was on the verge of a career-year in 2011 before suffering a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee during Week 13. In his first 11 games, he ran for 987 yards, had 490 receiving yards and scored four times. Never a strong short yardage runner, Forte will once again come out in those situations with Michael Bush taking over that roll from Marion Barber. Bush figures to eat into some of Forte’s touches but Forte remains a RB1 for fantasy purposes.
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – With pending free agency, Lynch had the finest year of his career in 2011, posting career-highs in rushing yards with 1,204 and rushing touchdowns with 12. He also chipped in 212 yards and another touchdown in the passing game. And he will remain a workhorse back in 2012. Why not higher up, you ask? Simple. The guy has a history that you can’t ignore.
9. Darren McFadden, Raiders – Run DMC was a monster the first six weeks of last season, gaining 610 yards on the ground, 153 through the air and scoring five touchdowns. Then the injury woes hit, again. This time it was a Lis Franc sprain that ended his season with the Raiders hiding the true extent of his injury for several weeks, keeping his fantasy owners in limbo. Supersub Michael Bush has left town and his injury history is the only thing keeping McFadden out of the top five.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Despite coming off a 2011 season that ended in Week 2 with a torn ACL, Charles sneaks into the top 10. Peyton Hillis signed with the Chiefs but don’t forget that Charles topped 1,000 rushing yards in consecutive seasons and posted 1,935 total yards in 2010 on just 275 touches.
11. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Hey, the kid can play but can he play for 16 games? Injury issues caused him to drop to the 3rd round of the 2011 draft and low and behold, he ended his rookie season on injured reserve. Injuries and age are issues for several of the players behind him.
12. Steven Jackson, Rams – SJax bounced back last year after suffering through a subpar 2010 season when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. While he might be just 28 years old, he has had more wear and tear than perhaps any other running back that age, constantly having to face eight and nine man fronts. At least it’s nice to know that he has topped 1,000 rushing yards in seven straight seasons and that Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is committed to running the football. Isaiah Pead, the team’s 2nd round pick in the draft, is no threat.
13. Fred Jackson, Bills – Sorry, C.J. Spiller owners, FJax is too good to give up too many touches to the young speedster in 2012. This guy was a top 5 fantasy running back before suffering a broken fibula in Week 11.
14. Frank Gore, 49ers – Persona non grata in the passing game and now facing a threat to his goal line carries with Brandon Jacobs in town. Jacobs is no sure bet to win that role but Gore is no longer a workhorse back with Kendall Hunter and Jacobs on the roster, not to mention the addition of 2nd round pick LaMichael James.
15. Michael Turner, Falcons – Turner’s FF bio is littered with red flags. He turned 30 in February, he has topped 300 carries in three of the last four years and he was dreadful from Week 12 to Week 16 last year (280 rushing yards and one touchdown) before running roughshod over a decimated Bucs team in Week 17. However, he has hit double-digit touchdowns in each of his four years in Atlanta and he remains the lead back in an offense that that should be in the top 10 in 2012.
16. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – The good news is that Bradshaw’s main backup, Brandon Jacobs, left town. As expected, the Giants used a high pick to replace Jacobs, taking David Wilson in the 1st round. That’s not horrible news for Bradshaw owners since Wilson had fumbling issues in college and we all know what head coach Tom Coughlin does to players who fumble.
 Richardson should easily lead the browns in touches in 2012. 17. Trent Richardson, Browns – Browns legend Jim Brown might not think Richardson does anything special but he doesn’t have much competition for carries and the team’s passing attack is severely lacking playmakers and will likely feature a rookie quarterback. Add it up and there are plenty of reasons for the Browns to give Richardson plenty of touches in 2012.
18. Darren Sproles, Saints – The diminutive one finished 2011 as the 10th ranked fantasy running back despite having just 173 touches. He is unlikely to reach the nine touchdowns he had last season but a repeat of his 1,313 total yards is possible.
19. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – How did I decide to put AP at 14? I couldn’t find anybody else to put ahead of him. Peterson is on schedule with his rehab and the club remains confident he will return for Week 1 however he’s likely to be limited early in the season.
20. Shonn Greene, Jets – Despite a rib injury that limited him late in 2011, Greene topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time and figures to top the 273 touches he had last season with LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster. If only Tim Tebow wasn’t around to steal goal line touches.
21. Beanie Wells, Cardinals – At first glance, Wells’ numbers look good – 1,047 yards, 4.3 yards per carry and ten touchdowns. A closer look reveals some major inconsistency, with Wells having ten games (out of 15) with 67 or fewer yards and just two 100-yard performances. Add in his injury history and it seems clear that a timeshare with Ryan Williams, who missed all of his rookie season with injury, is almost guaranteed.
22. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Coming off a career year, Bush surprised the football world by staying healthy for 15 games and topping 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The issue is whether he can do it again.
23. Roy Helu, Redskins – Showed plenty of upside in 2011 before missing the final three games of the season with knee and toe injuries.
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – It’s precarious but BJGE cracks the top 25 and rookie Dan Herron is no threat to cut into Law Firm’s playing time.
25. Willis McGahee, Broncos – Sorry, folks, I don’t believe a repeat of his 2011 performance is in the cards and with rookie Ronnie Hilliman’s adequate receiving skills, McGahee should be less of a workhorse back in 2012.
26. Jahvid Best, Lions – Let’s assume he plays 10 or 11 games. That should be enough to keep him inside the top 30 fantasy running backs.
27. Doug Martin, Bucs – Tampa Bay’s new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball and he’s already put incumbent starter LeGarrette Blount on notice about his fumbling issues in 2011. He has also jettisoned perceived troublemakers in safety Tanard Jackson and tight end Kellen Winslow and we are all familiar with Blount’s background. Martin figures to get plenty of work as a rookie but his upside is limited if Blount handles the short yardage work, as expected.
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – This ranking doesn’t reflect his talent. It is looking likely a committee approach in Carolina this season but Stewart at least figures to be the lead dog.
29. James Starks, Packers – Hey, nobody thinks the Packers are going to run it much in 2012 but the bottom line is that Starks’ only competition for carries consist of a 2nd year former undrafted free agent in Brandon Saine and another 2nd year players coming off an ACL injury in Alex Green, the team’s 2011 3rd round pick.
30. Mark Ingram, Saints – Why is he here? I’m scared to put him any lower.
Dropping out from my initial rankings are Isaac Redman of the Steelers, the Bucs LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley of the Patriots.
By: Dave Stringer — May 9, 2012 @ 10:27 am
Here is a post-draft update to my initial 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Only a Week 17 day off prevented Rodgers from being the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2011. With his key weapons back for 2012, expect more of the same.
2. Tom Brady, Patriots – Gains a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd and another reliable option in Jabar Gaffney making the New England offense even more unstoppable.
3. Drew Brees, Saints – More of a risk with head coach Sean Payton suspended for the 2012 season – the only key loss the team suffered on offense. Robert Meachem left town but he is replaceable.
4. Matthew Stafford, Lions – After his breakout 2011 season with over 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, the only concern with Stafford is his health and that of wide receiver Calvin Johnson. With nothing of significance added to help replenish the team’s rushing attack, expect plenty of passes from the Lions once again.
 Stafford will make another run at 5000 yards in 2012. 5. Cam Newton, Panthers – Newton burst onto the scene with 854 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a pair of rushing scores in his first two games on his way to finishing the year as the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback. There are only two red flags. He threw for under 200 yards in each of his last three games (478 yards in those games) and it is highly unlikely he will reach 14 rushing touchdowns again – a league record for quarterbacks he set last season.
6. Eli Manning, Giants – In leading the Giants to another Super Bowl victory, Manning enjoyed the finest year of his career with 4,933 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Mario Manningham left town but he wasn’t a key cog in the Giants regular season passing success in 2011 and rookie 2nd round pick Rueben Randle will help replace his production.
7. Michael Vick, Eagles – With Vick, it’s all about the injuries. If you peg him as missing one or two games, then he is close to being a top-five fantasy quarterback. If it’s four or five games, knock him down to somewhere between 10th and 12th.
8. Peyton Manning, Broncos – The Broncos have been adding tools to their offensive toolbox since signing Manning. Slot receivers Brandon Stokely and Andre Caldwell. Check. Pass catching tight ends in Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen. Check. Speed in the backfield with rookie 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman. Check.
9. Philip Rivers, Chargers – The weapons are leaving the Chargers offense with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Mike Tolbert skipping town one year after the departure of Darren Sproles. That hurts as does having injury issues amongst his receivers (Antonio Gates, Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd). But, can Rivers possibly be as bad as he was last year?
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons – Expect less from tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner but more from wide receivers Roddy White and especially, Julio Jones. Net result should be career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Star third wide receiver Laurent Robinson left town for the Jaguars, Jason Witten started looking old down the stretch and Miles Austin has hamstrings tighter than a steel bar. Oh, Dallas also found a running game last year with DeMarco Murray.
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – The Bucs were a mess last year and Freeman suffered because of it. However, Vincent Jackson is in town to provide him with his first real deep threat and Mike Williams should benefit from drawing less attention. Freeman’s rushing prowess makes him the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback over other options such as Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler and Robert Griffin III.
By: Tony Nowak — April 27, 2012 @ 5:33 pm
1.06 Cowboys – CB Morris Claiborne, Louisiana State
The first defender selected in the 2012 draft will quickly push Mike Jenkins for a starting job and likely kicks the quicker, faster Jenkins in on the slot when their top three corners are all on the field. Playing opposite an exceptional Brandon Carr and a sporadic playmaker in Jenkins should mean Claiborne is tested early and help his numbers. He has great ball skills, but eventually should see less his way as he develops in to a shutdown corner. Not a fundamentally strong tackler, but not afraid to stick his helmet in there. One of the top returners in the draft, but the Cowboys are loaded with outstanding returners and after getting burned with a broken ankle by Dez Bryant on a return two years ago, have been more reticent to use their stars in the role, so don’t expect him to add much more value in leagues that count return stats.
1.07 Buccaneers – S Mark Barron, Alabama
Barron should step right in as the starting SS and his primary responsibility will be to improve a run defense that was last in the league. He isn’t great in coverage, but makes great reads and has an outstanding great nose for the ball, contributing to his 12 career interceptions. He has the talent and opportunity to be a top fantasy producer at DB.
1.09 Panthers – LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
Despite their need at DT, the selection of Kuechly by the Panthers isn’t a surprise. The team has their top two linebackers coming off major surgery after significant injuries last season in Jon Beason (Achilles) and Thomas Davis (ACL). Assuming all are healthy, Kuechly will have a challenge early for playing time, as James Anderson has really emerged the last two years after injuries gave him opportunity. However, that seems unlikely. It would be surprising if Davis, a converted safety, remains the outstanding athlete he was after three ACL surgeries in less than two years. The Achilles is also a scary injury, there is no guarantee Beason will remain the beast he was before the injury. If I had to bet now how the Panthers field their linebackers for most of the season, it would be Beason in the middle, Anderson at SLB and Kuechly at WLB, with Davis in a swing role. For dynasty purposes, the sky is the limit for Kuechly, a tackle machine who displayed Urlacheresque athleticism at the Combine. Sooner than later he will be one of the top Mike’s in the league.
1.10 Bills – CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
Similar to Morris, he immediately becomes one of the top 3 corners and should push for a starting job in camp. Nice size/speed guy with loads of potential who could also contribute as a returner with the departure of Roscoe Parrish.
1.11 Chiefs – DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
One of the picks I nailed in my final mock, while everyone else had him dropping. GM Scott Pioli and HC Romeo Crennel envisioning him as the next coming of Vince Wilfork. Not a fantasy factor himself, but the attention he draws should help the numbers of those around him.
1.12 Eagles – DL Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
The reported pre-draft love the team had for him was accurate as the Eagles joined the trade parade last night to move up to secure him. The versatile Cox is a great fit for the active rotation in Philly’s front four. An ideal penetrating three-technique, he should be the rare DT (in leagues that don’t segregate between DL positions) who offers consistent fantasy value, because of his ability to get to the QB.
1.14 Rams – DT Michael Brockers, Louisiana State
I think he would have been better off as a five-technique in a 3-4 defense, but 21 year-old is a just tapping his potential as he learns the tricks of the trade, coming out as a redshirt sophomore. New HC Jeff Fisher is hoping he landed another Albert Haynesworth in the equally super-sized Brockers to anchor his defense.
1.15 Seahawks – DE/OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia
GM John Schneider and HC Pete Carroll now rival Bill Belichick when it comes to taking the (pundit) path less traveled in their evaluations and decisions. Looking for help for their pass rush was no surprise, but tapping the undersized Irvin to do it with this pick was the biggest shock of the night. There is no doubt Irvin can get to the QB, with 22.5 sacks in 26 college games, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to do it against pro linemen. Irvin bulked up to 245 for the Combine and still ran a 4.45, but he has a very narrow and angular frame, I don’t think he can carry much more weight well. His ceiling is a situational pass rusher and was definitely better suited to do it as a 3-4 edge rusher where linemen can’t immediately get their hands on him.
1.16 Jets – OLB/DL Quinton Coples, North Carolina
Landing in a 3-4 as an OLB would not have been a great fantasy situation for the player who has the most potential as a 4-3 DE in this class, but it’s even worse for his fantasy value if he’s going to see work as a five-technique DE too. Expect Rex Ryan to move him around and the challenges of learning multiple positions in a new defense are even more of a concern for a player whose dedication and work ethic are already questioned.
1.17 Bengals – CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
The position choice was no surprise after an aging Nate Clements was a downgrade last season after being brought in to fill the hole left by the departure of Johnathan Joseph and having Leon Hall is coming off a torn Achilles’ tendon. Not surprisingly, the dismissed marijuana charge that might have been a red flag for some teams didn’t faze the Bengals, which I agree with. I’m more concerned that he lacks the foot speed to be the shutdown corner he was in college at this level on deep threats. He will have opportunity and be tested frequently, both translated well for his fantasy value.
1.18 Chargers – OLB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
Plenty of discussion on where the versatile Ingram, who started as a DT, was best suited to play, but this is a great fit in a good place. I think his fantasy production will surprise some people.
1.19 Bears – DE/LB Shea McClellin, Boise State
Are we sure Jerry Angelo was fired? This pick by new GM Phil Emery reeks of Angelo’s very own self-deluded “smartest guy in the room” aura. Commenting to the Chicago media that he was happy McClellin was used as an OLB in the Senior Bowl so other teams wouldn’t see him as a pass rusher ranges from insulting his own intelligence to that of his counterparts – someone needs to let Emery know other teams employ scouts and watch film too. McClellin was a late riser, rumored to be of interest to such teams with recently better track records like the Packers and Patriots, but that was as a 3-4 OLB. It remains to be seen if he can carry the weight to be effective with his hand on the ground full time. DC Rod Martinelli moves his linemen all around the front four, but doesn’t employ exotic schemes that could have the McClellin bouncing around from side-to-side with his hand off the ground, so I’m not sure his versatility is more valuable than if they had gone with a full-fledged edge rusher.
1.21 Patriots – DE/OLB Chandler Jones, Syracuse
Yesterday’s sign of the apocalypse – Bill Belichick trading UP in the first round, not once, but twice. Great athletic genes in the Jones’ family, his brother Arthur is a DT on Baltimore and brother Jon is a UFC fighter. Jones was off the first-round radar early in the process after a knee injury cost him almost half of last season, but was a late riser who some, including such respectable evaluators as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock, believe he may be the best pure pass rusher in this class. The pass rush has lost Mark Anderson and Andre Carter hasn’t been resigned, so there is opportunity in the Elephant role for him, but Jones needs to bulk up and add some strength. I expect them to resign Carter or bring in another vet and look at Jones as more of a long-term solution who will see spot duty and get after the QB next year.
1.25 Patriots – LB Don’ta Hightower
Love the player, love the fit. Fantasy gold, I don’t care if he and Jerod Mayo will cannibalize some of each other’s tackle numbers, he will also get to the QB a few times and make other big plays.
1.26 Texans – OLB Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
After the loss of Mario Williams, despite the emergence of Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin last year, I was pretty confident DC Wade Phillips would want another elite pass rusher for his rotation – I had Nick Perry going here in my final mock. Instead Phillips got, statistically, the best pass rusher in college last year. Mercilus led FCS with 16 sacks and 9 forced fumble, also totaling 22.5 TFL. There’s concern Mercilus is a one-year wonder, but a solid Combine affirmed the athleticism is there, and elite collegiate sack production tends to translate well. His ceiling is Terrell Suggs to me.
1.28 Packers – OLB Nick Perry, Southern California
I was higher on Perry that most, consistently mocking him in the first, and like him even more landing in a great situation in Green Bay. The team has struggled to find a partner opposite Clay Matthews at OLB and Perry should have no problem winning the starting job as a rookie. He should be used as the primary for pass rusher, freeing Matthews up to freelance more. With DC Dom Capers and OLB coach Kevin Greene, as well as former collegiate teammate Matthews as a role model, Green Bay is right up there with Pittsburgh as the best environment to learn to how to play the edges in a 3-4.
1.29 Vikings – S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
While most have Smith as the second-best safety in this class, most also had him after the first round. I snuck him in with the Patriots’ last pick in the first in my final mock because of need and he seems like a Belichick guy. The Vikings have even more need at the position, which is clearly the primary motivator with this pick. Smith succeeds with smarts and size over talent and speed. Great fantasy potential for next year, but I don’t believe he’s the next John Lynch.
By: Doug Orth — @ 1:21 am
1.32 Giants – RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech
GM Jerry Reese subscribes fully to the “best player available” theory and it is hard to fault him with this pick, in part because Wilson is the closest thing this draft has to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw may have a bit more burst initially, but Wilson is more durable and has some sleeper fantasy potential in this situation considering the Giants want a back to split carries with Bradshaw. As a result, he should be in line for 8-10 touches/game on a regular basis right away, with the added benefit that he could easily carry the load should Bradshaw miss a game or two. Wilson should be one of the more sought-after handcuffs in fantasy for redraft purposes, but New York wasn’t his best landing spot for dynasty purposes since Bradshaw is under contract through 2014.
By: Doug Orth — @ 1:20 am
1.31 Buccaneers – RB Doug Martin, Boise State
Despite the fact Cleveland likely stole the player they wanted the most at the top of the first round in Trent Richardson, the Bucs recover nicely by trading back into the first by selecting Martin, likely stealing him from the Giants. In the end, the draft’s top two RBs end up in two of the best fantasy situations they could have asked for. The Ray Rice comparison is apt in terms of size, although Rice wins the battle of explosiveness while Martin is slightly more powerful. Martin is a three-down back and should make LeGarrette Blount into nothing more than handcuff for fantasy purposes. Martin’s dynasty value is sky high. His redraft value is certainly on par with Richardson. Given his supporting cast and the division he plays in, one could easily argue Martin is the more desirable fantasy RB in 2012.
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