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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Doug Orth — April 27, 2012 @ 12:41 am
1.01 Colts – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Most, if not all, NFL personnel people believe Luck is one of the best and most NFL-ready QB prospects to come out in years, so his skill is not in question. However, new HC Chuck Pagano suggests Indy will be a physical running team in the coming years, which flies a bit in the face of what new OC Bruce Arians built his reputation on in Pittsburgh. And there is also the issue of his likely supporting cast, which will feature a declining Reggie Wayne, injury-prone Donnie Avery and Austin Collie with no viable threat at TE. Now, Collie has proven he can be a lead receiver at times, but the Colts’ offense is in the midst of a massive rebuilding job nonetheless. Luck’s upside is so high that he is probably worth over-drafting in dynasty leagues in order to get elite fantasy production from him in 2-3 years, but understand that his immediate success is far from guaranteed as the Colts restock the shelves.
In redraft leagues, he starts the summer as a mid-level QB2 in 12-team leagues thanks mostly to his skill and underrated athletic ability. He has enough of a supporting cast that fantasy owners should expect a top 20 finish at his position in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — April 16, 2012 @ 11:08 am
With Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots setting a league record for touchdowns by a tight end and the Saints Jimmy Graham also enjoying monstrous production in his second year in the league, fantasy owners are for the first time faced with the prospect of selecting two tight ends within the first two rounds of their drafts.
The question is: is that a sound strategy?
Before we answer that, let’s decide who the top dog at tight end should be in 2012. Giving his 235 fantasy points last season, Gronkowski deserves that honor.
While Gronkowski has been a revelation in New England (and to his fantasy owners) with 28 touchdowns during his first two years in the league and 1,327 receiving yards in 2011, the odds of him replicating his 2011 production are unlikely. Brandon Lloyd joins the Patriots this season as a proven deep threat, defenses will adjust and increase their focus on Gronkowski and his high ankle sprain at the end of last season was a reminder of the injury issues that caused him to drop into the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.
If that turns out to be an accurate assessment, then he shouldn’t be taken in the 2nd round. In fact, there is a strong case that Graham should be able to significantly close the fantasy point differential between the two players, making him a potential better value as the second tight end off the board.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings:
The Top 12
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – He’s a beast but is he a beast that can stay healthy?
 Sky is the limit for Jimmy Graham. 2. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Given his inexperience, you could make a strong argument that he has more upside than any tight end in the league.
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers – Is he a tease or the dominant player he appeared to be in 2010 and one who deserves more targets in 2012?
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers – The bad news is that he has missed nine games in the last two years. The good news is that he averaged 13.8 points per game in 2010 when Vincent Jackson missed most of the season and Jackson has left for Tampa Bay.
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers – Are you getting the Davis who dominated in two playoff games last season (292 yards and four touchdowns) or the one who averaged six targets a game in the regular season (792 yards and six touchdowns). Head coach Jim Harbaugh will decide.
6. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Doesn’t have the upside of the players ahead of him but managed 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in just fourteen games last season.
7. Jason Witten, Cowboys – With Laurent Robinson having a solid season as the team’s third wide receiver, Witten had just 117 targets, his lowest total since the 2006 season. It is nice that Robinson isn’t in Dallas anymore. Not so nice is Witten’s production over the Cowboys final six games (272 receiving yards and no touchdowns).
8. Fred Davis, Redskins – If you watched any Redskins games last year, it was readily apparent that Davis has major upside. Look no further than his 8.1 points per game last season, 5th best amongst tight ends. With better wide receivers in Washington this season, a rookie quarterback and his 2011 suspension, Davis carries some risk and that is why he isn’t higher on the list. However, it won’t be a surprise if he is in the top five by season’s end.
9. Brent Celek, Eagles – Persona non grata in 2010 and for the first six games of 2011, Celek re-emerged as a weapon for the Eagles over the final 10 games, catching 53 passes for 738 yards and five touchdowns.
10. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – The Falcons figure to have a solid offense once again in 2012 but I am not sold that the 36-year-old Gonzalez can repeat his 875-yard, seven-touchdown performance from a year ago. Gonzo is going to need to increase his touchdown count to repeat as a top 5 tight end.
11. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew had the 2nd most targets amongst tight ends last season with 126 but was the 11th ranked fantasy player at his position so you could make the argument that he has a lot of upside but you would be wrong. He catches a lot of passes (83 last year) but not for a lot of yards (10.0 career yards per reception). In Detroit’s offense, he gets few looks down the field and is mostly a check down option in the passing game.
12. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – The 2010 1st round pick might be ready to bust out in 2012 provided he improves his route running. The talent is there, the light needs to come on.
Pettigrew and Gresham could be swapped out for a number of options including Jared Cook, Dustin Keller, Kellen Winslow and Owen Daniels.
By: Dave Stringer — April 8, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, the fantasy statistics of quarterbacks exploded in 2011. The common assumption is that the fantasy value of the league’s wide receivers has risen alongside that of quarterbacks.
However, in this situation, the common adage that a rising tide lifts all boats is only partially true.
In 2011, the production of the league’s top 10 fantasy wide receivers increased by an average of eight points. However, the average production of the 11th to 20th ranked receivers increased just one point and there was a two point increase for receivers ranked 21st to 30th.
What that means is that additional production in the passing game is going to running backs, tight ends and lower tier receivers (oftentimes, those not useful for fantasy purposes other than in the deepest leagues).
If you’re looking for how this translates into a strategy at your fantasy auction, the takeaway is that it makes sense to grab an upper tier wide receiver early in your draft but use two of your first three picks on the position is likely not the best option. One of those picks needs to be for a running back and the other should go towards an elite quarterback, another running back or perhaps one of the top two tight ends.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:
The Top 30
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions – If anybody else was here, you would quit reading.
2. Andre Johnson, Texans – The last two seasons have proven that Johnson isn’t getting any younger but his talent and the lack of talent amongst Houston’s other receivers land him at number two.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – With perhaps the second worst quarterback play in the league last season, Fitzgerald still managed 80 receptions for 1,411 yards and 8 touchdowns. Just imagine if the Cards would have landed Peyton Manning.
4. Roddy White, Falcons – These days, everybody likes the shiny, new gadget. In Atlanta, I like the old gadget and look no further than his performance from Week 11 to 17 last season (733 yards and five touchdowns).
5. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jordy Nelson put up better numbers but Jennings remains the Big Dog in the Packers receiving corps.
6. Hakeem Nicks, Giants – See above, remove Jordy Nelson, insert Victor Cruz.
7. Wes Welker, Patriots – Sorry Patriots fans, but the presence of Brandon Lloyd means more shots down the field and fewer opportunities for Welker.
 It's not a stretch to consider A.J. Green a top 10 wideout. 8. A.J. Green, Bengals – If there was one reason to watch the Bengals last year, A.J. Green was it. If Andy Dalton keeps improving, Green is destined to be a top 5 fantasy wide receiver by 2013 at the latest.
9. Marques Colston, Saints – Over his last 11 games, Colston put up 985 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, making him the 3rd ranked wide receiver over that period. He then put up 256 receiving yards and a score in two playoff games. Also doesn’t hurt that Robert Meachem left town.
10. Mike Wallace, Steelers – With Rashard Mendenhall out, Wallace figures to be featured even more in 2012.
11. Jordy Nelson, Packers – This guy will prove that his 2011 production (1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 68 receptions) was no fluke. Expect an increase on the 96 targets he had last season.
12. Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin was unstoppable over the Vikings final nine games, putting up 691 receiving yards, 176 rushing yard and eight touchdowns. With Adrian Peterson coming off a torn ACL, Harvin should be solid once again in 2012.
13. Brandon Marshall, Bears – Will being reunited with Jay Cutler make Marshall a top 10 fantasy wide receiver once again? Not quite.
14. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Quarterback Matt Cassel was lost in Week 10. Prior to that, Bowe was the 7th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Yes, Tyler Palko killed his fantasy value.
15. Julio Jones, Falcons – This kid is dynamite but his hammies cause me some concern.
16. Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Let’s face it. This guy has top five potential but he’s not going to get there with the 6.9 targets per game he had last year.
17. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers – The Chargers offense is better than the Bucs and Josh Freeman is no match for Philip Rivers.
18. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith had a renaissance season in 2011, catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, he will be 33 years old on opening day and the Panthers passing attack won’t surprise anybody in 2012.
19. Miles Austin, Cowboys – Just 27 years old, Austin is entering his 7th season in the league. He remains wonderfully talented but he couldn’t stay healthy last season and might not be the top dog on his own team.
20. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – He’s risky and wildly inconsistent but there’s no way he can be as bad he was last year.
21. Victor Cruz, Giants – I keep reading his stat line (1,536 yards and nine touchdowns) and I keep pinching myself. No, I don’t quite believe and I’m having a hard time putting him here.
22. Steve Johnson, Bills – It doesn’t feel right putting him this low but he has benefited from a lot of targets and the production opposite him can’t be as bad as it was last year. Or can it?
23. Kenny Britt, Titans – If it weren’t for injury, brain cramps and quarterback concerns, Britt would be much higher.
24. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – I’m making the call that the ten touchdowns he scored as part of the Eagles high-flying 2010 offense were an aberration.
25. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – I read that Thomas is the most physically gifted wide receiver that Peyton Manning has ever played with. Unfortunately, he’s not the best receiver that Manning ever played with. And the injury history cannot be ignored.
26. Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Over the season’s final 11 games, Crabtree caught 61 passes for 742 yards and four touchdowns. Projected over an entire season, that would make him a mid-tier WR2 but that won’t happen with Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in San Francisco.
27. Antonio Brown, Steelers – Breakout season in 2011 but lack of touchdowns hurts his fantasy value. Doesn’t help that Emmanuel Sanders figures to be healthy for 2012.
28. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots – You see a player being reunited with the offensive guru who help propel him to a career-year. I see a player who is his team’s fourth option in the passing game.
29. Torrey Smith, Ravens – Meet Baltimore’s new number one receiver.
30. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Repeat after me. Top wide receiver on a doormat that will have to throw plenty. Garbage time production, folks.
On the outside looking in: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Anquan Boldin, Sidney Rice, Robert Meachem, Malcom Floyd, Lance Moore, Pierre Garcon, Santonio Holmes, Eric Decker, Nate Washington, Laurent Robinson and Mario Manningham.
By: Dave Stringer — April 4, 2012 @ 10:55 am
Let’s face it, folks. With the NFL becoming a passing league, the days of there being ten quality fantasy options at running back are long gone and they aren’t coming back.
If you haven’t ditched your two stud running back theory, it’s time to get out of the cave, return from the stone ages and quit eating leaves from tree tops. Otherwise, your fellow owners are going to have plenty of fun with dinosaur and cave man jokes at your expense.
And you don’t want that.
This year, there are four running backs that deserve to be taken before any other position and that is it. Some might argue that number should be three. Even more interesting is that you could make a strong case that this year’s 5th ranked running back should be taken no sooner than 9th overall.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football running back rankings:
The Top 30
1. Arian Foster, Texans – Foster proved in 2011 that his monster breakout season in 2010 was no fluke. A hamstring injury that caused him to miss two starts and leave early in another game and a Week 17 breather were the only issues preventing Foster from repeating as the top fantasy running back last season. A pair of key defections on the offensive line and his new contract are the only red flags.
2. Ray Rice, Ravens – With Ricky Williams backing him up, Rice still managed 2,068 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011, both career highs. Williams retired this off-season and while Baltimore will surely add to their running back depth chart, it is unlikely Rice’s new backup will be as talented as Williams. That means Rice figures to approach 400 touches (395 last season) again in 2012, provided he doesn’t hold out.
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy finished second in fantasy points amongst running backs in 2011, topping 1,600 total yards for the second consecutive season and scoring a career-high 20 touchdowns. He clearly benefited from quarterback Michael Vick’s lack of rushing touchdowns (just one in 2011 after scoring nine times in 2010). Vick’s presence, the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to a potentially season-ending injury and McCoy’s contract status are the concerns.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – What is there to say? MJD was gold last season even though the Jaguars featured the worst quarterback play in the league, gaining 1,980 total yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. Since taking over as the team’s starter three seasons ago, he has averaged 117 total yards per game while topping 1,600 yards every year. Imagine what he can do if Blaine Gabbert picks up his game.
5. Chris Johnson, Titans – He’s just too good and his ego too big to have two consecutive down years. Right?
 Ryan Mathews is pushing to be a top 5 fantasy running back. 6. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – With Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles having left town over the past two off-seasons, Mathews is the Big Dog in San Diego in 2012 and the only thing holding him back from being a superstar is injury. Despite missing two games and having a reduced workload in two others, he still managed 1,546 total yards and six touchdowns last season. LeRon McClain is a marginal threat to take over Tolbert’s goal line duties but the expectation is that Mathews will assume that role.
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders – Run DMC was a monster over the first six weeks of last season, gaining 610 yards on the ground, 153 through the air and scoring five touchdowns. Then the injury woes hit, again. This time it was a Lis Franc sprain that ended his season with the Raiders hiding the true extent of his injury for several weeks, keeping his fantasy owners in limbo. Super sub Michael Bush has left town so injury history is the only thing keeping McFadden out of the top five.
8. Matt Forte, Bears – Forte was on the verge of a career-year in 2011 before suffering a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee during Week 13. In his first eleven games, he ran for 987 yards, had 490 receiving yards and scoring four times. Never a strong short yardage runner, Forte will once again come out in those situations with Michael Bush taking over that roll from Marion Barber. Bush figures to eat into some of Forte’s touches this season but Forte remains a RB1 for fantasy purposes.
9. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – With pending free agency, Lynch had the finest year of his career in 2011, posting career-highs in rushing yards with 1,204 and rushing touchdowns with 12. He also chipped in 212 yards and another touchdown in the passing game. He will remain a workhorse back in 2012. Why not higher up, you ask? Simple. I don’t believe.
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Despite coming off a 2011 season that ended in Week 2 with a torn ACL, Charles sneaks into the top 10. Peyton Hillis signed with the Chiefs but don’t forget that Charles topped 1,000 rushing yards in consecutive seasons and posted 1,935 total yards in 2010 on just 275 touches.
11. Michael Turner, Falcons – Turner’s FF bio is littered with red flags. He turned 30 in February, he has topped 300 carries in three of the last four years and he was dreadful from Week 12 to Week 16 last year (280 rushing yards and one touchdown) before running roughshod over a decimated Bucs team in Week 17. However, he has hit double-digit touchdowns in each of his four years in Atlanta and he remains the lead back in an offense that that should be in the top 10 in 2012.
12. Fred Jackson, Bills – Sorry, C.J. Spiller owners, Fjax is too good to give up too many touches to the young speedster in 2012. This guy was a top 5 fantasy running back before suffering a broken fibula in Week 11.
13. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Hey, the kid can play but can he play for 16 games? Injury issues caused him to drop to the 3rd round of the 2011 rookie draft and low and behold, he ended his rookie season on injured reserve.
14. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – How did I decide to put AP at 14? I couldn’t find anybody else to put ahead of him. Peterson is on schedule with his rehab and the club remains confident he will return for Week 1 however he’s likely to be limited early in the season.
15. Frank Gore, 49ers – Persona non grata in the passing game and now facing a threat to his goal line carries with Brandon Jacobs in town. Jacobs is no sure bet to win that role but Gore is no longer a workhorse back with Kendall Hunter and Jacobs on the roster.
16. Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Coming off a career year, Bush surprised the football world by staying healthy for 15 games and topping 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The issue is whether he can do it again.
17. Darren Sproles, Saints – The diminutive one finished 2011 as the 10th ranked fantasy running back despite having just 173 touches. He is unlikely to reach the nine touchdowns he had last season but a repeat of his 1,313 total yards is possible.
18. Steven Jackson, Rams – Sjax bounced back last season after suffering through a subpar 2010 season when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. While he might be just 28 years old, he has had more wear and tear than perhaps any other running back that age, constantly having to face eight and nine man fronts. At least it’s nice to know that he has topped 1,000 rushing yards in seven straight seasons.
19. Roy Helu, Redskins – Helu showed plenty of upside in 2011 before missing the final three games of the season with knee and toe injuries.
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals – It’s precarious but BJGE cracks the top 20 until we see what the Bengals do in the draft.
21. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – The good news is that Bradshaw’s main backup, Brandon Jacobs, has left town. The bad news is that it doesn’t mean much since the Giants don’t believe Bradshaw can be a workhorse back.
22. Isaac Redman, Steelers – With Mendenhall out, Redman looked good in a Week 17 win over the Browns and in the Steelers playoff loss against a tough Broncos defense. Basically, I don’t think he’s a big downgrade from Mendenhall, who will miss much of 2012. By opening day, Redman could move up to mid-tier RB2 status.
23. Shonn Greene, Jets – Despite a rib injury that limited him late in 2011, Greene topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time and figures to top the 273 touches he had last season with LaDainian Tomlinson no longer on the roster.
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals – At first glance, Wells’ numbers look good – 1,047 yards, 4.3 yards per carry and ten touchdowns. A closer look reveals some major inconsistency, with Wells having ten games (out of 15) with 67 or fewer yards and just two 100-yard performances. Add in his injury history and it seems clear that a timeshare with Ryan Williams, who missed all of his rookie season with injury, is almost guaranteed.
25. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs – There’s a nagging belief that the Bucs don’t view Blount as the answer and help is on the way in the draft, maybe in the form of Trent Richardson.
26. Stevan Ridley, Patriots – If he doesn’t fumble, Ridley figures to take over BJGE’s role in 2012.
27. Willis McGahee, Broncos – Sorry, folks, I don’t believe a repeat of his 2011 performance is in the cards. Expect the Broncos to add to their depth at running back and for McGahee to be less of a workhorse back next season.
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – This ranking doesn’t reflect his talent. It is looking likely a committee approach in Carolina this season but Stewart at least figures to be the lead dog.
29. Jahvid Best, Lions – Let’s assume he plays 10 or 11 games. That should be enough to keep him inside the top 30 fantasy running backs.
30. Mark Ingram, Saints – Why is he here? I’m scared to put him any lower. My apologies to Trent Richardson, James Starks, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Bush, C.J. Spiller and Daniel Thomas.
Wide Receivers up next…
By: Dave Stringer — March 30, 2012 @ 2:03 pm
With the NFL becoming more of a passing league, the strategy of grabbing a lower-tier starting quarterback for your fantasy squad is becoming obsolete. Look no further than the massive passing yardage and touchdown totals put up by the upper-tier quarterbacks in 2011, with three players throwing for more than 5,000 yards, ten players topping 4,000 yards and seven players throwing for 29 or more touchdowns.
And we haven’t mentioned what Cam Newton did rushing the ball in his rookie season.
The chic fantasy strategy at quarterback in 2012 will be to grab a top five quarterback and it won’t be a surprise if three quarterbacks are taken in the first round in drafts for 12-team leagues.
And the numbers back up that this is likely a smart strategy. The top five fantasy quarterbacks in 2012 averaged 28.4 points per game whereas the quarterbacks ranked 6th through 10th averaged 22.2, a not insignificant difference of 6.2 points per game.
With the first wave of free agency over, here are my initial 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings:
The Top 12
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Only a Week 17 day off prevented Rodgers from being the top-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2011. With his key weapons back for 2012, expect more of the same.
2. Tom Brady, Patriots – Gains a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd making the New England offense even more unstoppable.
3. Drew Brees, Saints – More of a risk with head coach Sean Payton suspended for the 2012 season, the only key loss the team suffered on offense. Robert Meachem left town but he is replaceable.
4. Matthew Stafford, Lions – After his breakout 2011 season with over 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, the only concern with Stafford is his health and that of wide receiver Calvin Johnson. With nothing of significance added to help replenish the team’s rushing attack, expect plenty of passes from the Lions once again next season.
 A repeat of 14 rushing TDs from Cam is too much to expect. 5. Cam Newton, Panthers – Newton burst onto the scene with 854 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a pair of rushing scores in his first two games on his way to finishing the year as the fourth ranked fantasy quarterback. There are only two red flags. He threw for under 200 yards in each of his last three games (478 yards in those games) and it is highly unlikely he will reach 14 rushing touchdowns again – a league record for quarterbacks he set last season.
6. Michael Vick, Eagles – With Vick, it’s all about the injuries. If you peg him as missing one or two games, then he is close to being a top-five fantasy quarterback. If it’s four or five games, knock him down to somewhere between 10th and 12th.
7. Eli Manning, Giants – In leading the Giants to another Super Bowl victory, Manning enjoyed the finest year of his career with 4,933 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Mario Manningham left town but he wasn’t a key cog in the Giants regular season passing success in 2011.
8. Philip Rivers, Chargers – The weapons are leaving the Chargers offense with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Mike Tolbert skipping town one year after the departure of Darren Sproles. That hurts as does having injury issues amongst his receivers (Antonio Gates, Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd). But, can Rivers possibly be as bad as he was last year?
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons – Expect less from tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner but more from wide receivers Roddy White and especially, Julio Jones. Net result should be career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
10. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Broncos are sure to add to their offense but at this point they are missing a slot receiver and a running back capable of making big plays in the passing game. Check back later on this one.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Star third wide receiver Laurent Robinson left town for the Jaguars, Jason Witten started looking old down the stretch and Miles Austin has hamstrings tighter than a steel bar. Oh, Dallas also found a running game last year with DeMarco Murray.
12. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – The Bucs were a mess last year and Freeman suffered because of it. However, Vincent Jackson is in town to provide him with his first real deep threat and Mike Williams should benefit from drawing less attention. Freeman’s rushing prowess makes him the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback over other options such as Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler and Robert Griffin III.
Running backs up next…
By: Doug Orth — March 23, 2012 @ 3:44 pm
In a somewhat surprising move, the Chicago Bears agreed to terms on a four-year, $14 million contract with Michael Bush.
 Forte is none too happy with the signing of Bush. From a personnel standpoint, it is hard to blame the Bears for making a move to protect themselves in negotiations with Matt Forte, who has been seeking a long-term deal for some time. In his short time as the GM, Phil Emery has executed two bold moves, trading for Brandon Marshall shortly after the start of the new league year and signing Bush. From a business prospective, though, Chicago has made it clear it has no intentions to reward a player who has done as much in a short time and with as much class as Forte has.
However, the surprising parts to this signing are that: 1) Bush would sign anywhere that he didn’t have a clear path to the starting job after his rather impressive performance over the second half of the 2011 season, 2) Chicago would sign the best free-agent running back in the class, understanding they already had Kahlil Bell as a capable reserve and 3) knowing that acquiring a back in his prime like Bush would not only undermine and upset the offense’s centerpiece, but also force him to share touches if/when he returns from a likely holdout.
At the start of free agency, two destinations seemed to make the most sense for Bush – Cincinnati and Cleveland (assuming the Bengals were going to part with Cedric Benson and the Browns would let Peyton Hillis walk, both of which seemed likely). Both teams execute a version of the West Coast Offense that will not hesitate to lean on the running game when necessary. The WCO has also long rewarded running backs who possess the receiving skills Bush does. And let’s not overlook the small detail that Bush was born, raised and went to college at Louisville, which is not a long drive from the two Ohio teams, particularly Cincinnati.
In case you haven’t been keeping count, Forte has been in the league for four years and has been forced to deal with high-profile backups (Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor and Marion Barber) every season. Granted, Jones didn’t help much during his injury-plagued stay in Chicago, which allowed Forte to post a 1,715-total yard, eight-touchdown debut in 2008 and 1,616-yard, nine-score follow-up effort in 2009. Now, Forte has to deal with the 27-year-old Bush, who is easily the best back of the four players Chicago has brought in over the years to “compete” with Forte and will now command most of the goal line touches and a sizable chunk of the passing game work.
Fantasy Impact
Even though Chicago will run the ball earlier in the season and with more conviction than it ever did under former OC Mike Martz, it is hard to like this signing from a number of perspectives.
The most obvious reason to dislike Bush in Chicago from a fantasy standpoint is because he is a poor bet to ever become the feature back. In Cincinnati or Cleveland, Bush would have been a strong bet for 325-350 touches with injury-prone second-stringers like Bernard Scott and Montario Hardesty picking up the rest of the work. There was little doubt in my mind the Bengals would have been the best fit for Bush, but they opted for BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
On the other hand, Forte played in 60 consecutive games to begin his NFL career before the knee injury he suffered in Week 13 knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Forte’s running style is not one that exposes him to injury on a regular basis, meaning a repeat of 2011 is unlikely.
Assuming both players are healthy (and/or not holding out) all season long, neither back is a likely candidate for 300 touches now. Certainly, sharing the load is not uncommon in today’s NFL, but in Forte and Bush, the Bears have two players who are certainly more than capable of being feature backs. When both are healthy, expect the same kind of workload split that Bush had with Darren McFadden, albeit in a much less dynamic offensive scheme under new OC Mike Tice.
In summary, it’s hard to believe any of the running backs involved benefits fantasy-wise from this transaction. It’s hard to imagine Forte being anything more than a low-end RB1 with 5-6 TD upside or Bush receiving enough opportunity to be anything more than an inconsistent RB3 due to Forte’s durability. What little fantasy value Bell had entering the 2012 season as Forte’s handcuff is gone as well.
By: Dave Stringer — March 20, 2012 @ 4:08 pm
With a hole at the quarterback position since the departure of Matt Hasselbeck, the Seattle Seahawks have acquired former Green Bay backup Matt Flynn.
 Has Seattle finally found it's Quarterback? Flynn joins Seattle after having served as a backup with the Packers for four years, following essentially the same path to a starting position that Hasselbeck did before leading Seattle for several years. The only difference is that the Seahawks had to trade for Hasselebeck whereas Flynn has joined the team as an unrestricted free agent.
Reports indicate that Flynn will sign a three-year, $26-million with $10-million in guarantees.
It was expected that Flynn would be a hot commodity as a free agent but the market for his services never really materialized. Flynn ended up choosing Seattle over Miami, where he would have joined former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, entering his first season as the Dolphins head coach.
Seattle is taking the chance that Flynn’s impressive performances in his two career starts will translate into solid production leading the Seahawks offense. The Flynn-led Packers nearly upset the Patriots in 2010 and he broke the Packers record for passing yards in a game during his Week 17 480-yard, six-touchdown performance against Detroit this season.
Seattle head coach Pete Carroll stated that Flynn would compete with incumbent Tarvaris Jackson for the starting quarterback position but it is expected that Flynn will lead the Seahawks offense in 2012.
Fantasy Impact
Will the Seahawks once again strike gold with a former Packers backup? Or will Flynn flop much like Kevin Kolb did in Arizona last season?
While Kolb was a checkdown king in his first year as a starter, Flynn has shown a willingness to throw the deep ball so it isn’t likely that defenses will be able to clamp down on him they were they were able to with Kolb at the controls of the Arizona offense.
That being said, Flynn doesn’t possess an outstanding skill set. He has shown solid decision-making skills and accuracy but he lacks arm strength on deep passes.
In Green Bay, he looked good playing with the league’s most feared group of pass catching wide receivers and tight ends that the league has to offer.
In Seattle, he will play with injury-prone wide receiver Sidney Rice, 2011 free agent tight end bust Zach Miller and whoever wins out at the wide receiver position opposite Rice. That’s not just a step down in offensive weaponry; it’s a flight or two stairs going in the wrong direction.
Of course, Rice could revert back to his 2009 form, when he topped 1,300 receiving yards while scoring eight touchdowns. Likewise, Miller could become the receiving threat he was in Oakland and again top 60 receptions. And Mike Williams could rebound from his poor showing last season and youngsters such as Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate and Deon Butler could step to the forefront and become consistent playmakers.
The key theme there is “could”, not “should”.
Seattle’s solid rushing attack, led by Marshawn Lynch, figures to relieve some of the pressure Flynn will be under during his first year as a starting quarterback. Carroll has shown a propensity for running the ball and there is a strong likelihood that he will feature Lynch, the team’s top offensive threat last season, once again in 2012.
With so much uncertainty in his supporting cast and his lack of natural athletic ability, Flynn needs to morph into Drew Brees to become a fantasy starter in 2012. Consider him a low-end fantasy backup.
Move Rice into the WR2 category, albeit at the low end, and Lynch’s status as a top 10 fantasy running back remains unchanged.
As for the Seahawks other offensive weapons, monitor their production in training camp and act accordingly.
By: Dave Stringer — March 19, 2012 @ 4:14 pm
Various news outlets are reporting that former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will be joining the Denver Broncos for the 2012 season.
 Is the AFC West Denver's division to lose? The Manning sweepstakes began when Indianapolis chose not to pay their future Hall of Fame quarterback a $28-million bonus payment, releasing him on March 7th and setting in motion the biggest free agent frenzy for one player in the history of the league.
After his release, reports indicated that up to 12 teams had inquired as to whether Manning was interested in signing with them. Presumably the only teams that didn’t inquire were those with Pro Bowl quality quarterbacks, outstanding young players at the position or teams that knew they had no chance to land the player regarded as arguably the best to ever play the position.
In the end, Manning’s decision came down to three teams – the Broncos, the Titans and the 49ers.
Manning’s agent, Tom Condon, must still finalize contract arrangements with the Broncos, a process that could take some time in order to protect the Broncos in the event Manning’s prior neck injuries reoccur. However, Manning has repeatedly stated that he wants to protect his next employer in the event that he is injured, making prolonged negotiations unlikely.
In Denver, Manning will join an offense that features a solid offensive line and a pair of promising young wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The Broncos have holes at running back where Willis McGahee was productive in 2011 but has complained about his contract and at tight end.
Interestingly, the Colts released running back Joseph Addai and tight end Dallas Clark this off-season and both players remain unsigned.
Fantasy Impact
The Broncos have largely sat on the sideline for the beginning of free agency, signing former Browns safety Mike Adams and re-signing linebacker Joe Mays. Reports have indicated that the team planned to continue building through the draft with Tim Tebow at quarterback unless Manning decided to join the team.
With Manning in the fold, the Broncos are expected to become more aggressive in free agency and the expectation is that a number of former Colts could join Manning in Denver.
There can be little doubt that the team will add a multi-dimensional threat out of the backfield as well as a pass receiving tight end and perhaps a slot receiver to the roster. Since that hasn’t happened and we don’t know who those players might be and whether those areas will be addressed through free agency or the draft, it is difficult to ascertain Manning’s fantasy football value for the 2012 season.
Let’s consider his age and health.
Manning will turn 36 this month and while that is clearly old for most positions, recent history suggests that quarterbacks can be very productive at such an age. The most recent example is Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who remained productive until 38 years of age.
Health-wise, Manning’s nerve damage to his neck is clearly cause for concern but not necessarily an indicator that he is more susceptible to injury going forward.
Keep in mind that Manning’s ability to recognize coverages was the main reason the Colts regularly ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. His ability to get the ball out before being pressured reduces his likelihood of suffering an injury.
Manning’s performance over the 2009 and 2010 seasons do not suggest any drop off from his performance over the earlier part of his career. He established a career-high in passing yards in 2010 with 4,700 and threw for the 3rd highest yardage total of his career in 2009 (4,500).
In addition, he threw for 33 touchdowns in each of those seasons and a touchdown interception-ratio of two to one while finishing as the top ranked fantasy quarterback in 2010 and 4th at the position in 2009. It is safe to conclude that Manning’s performance did not suffer in either of those seasons as a result of his advancing age.
In Denver, Manning will inherit a pair of young, talented receivers entering their 3rd seasons in the league. While Decker was more productive last season (44 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns), Thomas (32 receptions for 551 yards and four touchdowns) is the more exciting talent of the two. However, neither player has reached the heights of Reggie Wayne, Manning’s top wide receiver in Indianapolis.
As for comparing the tight end positions for the two teams, there’s simply no comparison. Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme were far better receiving options than what currently resides on the depth chart in Denver (a pair of second-year players in Julius Thomas and Virgil Green as well as Cornelius Ingram).
As the Denver roster currently stands, Manning would shape up as a low-end fantasy starter, perhaps sneaking into the top 10 but only barely. Lump him into the tier of fantasy quarterbacks that includes Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger but consider moving him up once we see what types of additions the Broncos management has planned on the offensive side of the ball.
Consider Thomas, a player with perhaps more physical ability than any wide receiver Manning has ever played with, a mid-tier WR2 with upside and Decker a low-end WR3.
As for Tebow, his fantasy value in redraft leagues plummets to zero and it isn’t much above that in dynasty formats.
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