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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — November 25, 2011 @ 1:28 pm
1. With Tyler Palko clearly limited as a downfield passing threat, the Chiefs moved quickly to claim former Bear and Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton when Denver unexpectedly placed him on waivers this week. While Orton will never be considered to have one of the stronger arms in the league, the Chiefs offense was limited by Palko’s weak arm and opposing defenses were certain to catch on quickly to his limitations and start dropping their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, reducing the Chiefs options on short and intermediate throws. Look for Orton to move into the starting line up as early as Week 13 against the Bears with a strong likelihood that he enters this week’s game against the Steelers in mop up duty. Orton doesn’t rate as an option for fantasy purposes but his presence does bring a greater measure of comfort to Dwayne Bowe owners who were likely concerned about his ability to keep producing with Palko under center for the Chiefs.
2. With the Chiefs scooping up Orton, the Bears moved quickly to solidify the backup quarterback position behind Caleb Hanie, signing veteran retread Josh McCown. McCown will back up Hanie until Jay Cutler returns to the team, likely in the playoffs should Chicago qualify as a wildcard team. McCown is familiar with the team’s offense from his time together with offensive coordinator Mike Martz (as well as wide receiver Roy Williams) in Detroit. While Hanie has never been a Martz favorite and seems unlikely to return to the Bears in 2012, the odds of McCown stepping into Chicago’s starting lineup are slim. Hanie possesses solid athletic ability but is more of a freelancer and scrambler than Martz cares for. However, McCown is in Chicago simply to provide insurance behind Hanie given that Chicago’s third string quarterback is rookie 5th round pick Nathan Enderle, who is not ready to assume control of the team’s offense.
 Absolutely delusional. 3. Let’s hand out some awards this week. The Absolutely Delusional Award goes to Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh for his post-game comments yesterday after getting ejected for ramming the head of backup Packers offensive lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith into the turf three times before stomping on his arm with his foot. From Suh’s viewpoint, he was being held down, just tried to get up and stumbled. Worse yet, Suh admitted that he saw the replay, which clearly shows him stomping on Dietrich-Smith’s arm. It’s one thing to be involved in a dirty play but another to fail to admit guilt when you have witnessed overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Albert Haynesworth received a five game suspension for stomping on Andre Gurode so, while that incident was worse than this one, the Lions will almost certainly be without their best defensive player for at least one game and possibly more.
4. Next up is Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio who gets the Don’t Hold Me Accountable Award. With Jacksonville trailing Cleveland 14-10 and having the ball on the Browns one-yard line with three seconds remaining, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter called for a Blaine Gabbert pass to diminutive wide receiver Mike Thomas. With running back Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield it is easy to second guess Koetter’s call, but, as head coach, Del Rio could have ordered a Jones-Drew run had he wanted to. At his post game press conference, Del Rio threw Koetter under the bus stating that the offensive coordinator calls the plays and that reporters should speak to him. Here’s to guessing that Del Rio wouldn’t have the press go speak to Koetter had the play resulted in a Thomas touchdown. Here’s hoping that Jaguars management finally pulls the plug on Del Rio’s tenure in Jacksonville and they move on from a coach who has always been willing to lay blame but never accept responsibility.
5. Next up is the Eagles DeSean Jackson for the Me, Me, Me Award. Flipping the ball to the opposing teams defensive coordinator after a long completion is one thing but then doing the ole’ can’t stick to me thing is guaranteed to draw a flag for unsportsmanlike conduct. Of course, it is not surprise that Jackson was guilty of this considering he dropped the ball in the field of play prior to entering the end zone as a rookie. Note to DeSean – if you want to get paid like you’re a superstar, then play like a superstar and ditch the punk portion of your personality.
6. Finally, the award for Plummeting Performance Right After Signing a Massive Contract Extension goes to Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. In fact, this one wasn’t even close. Since signing a six-year, $59-million extension, Fitzpatrick has failed to top 200 passing yards in two of three games while throwing for two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Pre-extension, the Bills were averaging 30.1 points per game. Post-extension, they are averaging 8.7 points per game. With running back Fred Jackson having been placed on injured reserve, the offensive line banged up and missing their best player in Eric Woods and numerous injury issues at wide receiver, keep Fitzpatrick out of your fantasy starting line up at all costs.
7. With just six games left on the schedule, it is safe to conclude that the Josh McDaniels era has not gotten off to the start that Rams management was hoping for. McDaniels offensive play calling has generated very little scoring in St. Louis where the Rams average a league low 12.0 points per game. With quarterback Sam Bradford having thrown just five touchdowns in eight games and clearly regressing after posting a solid rookie season, the whispers are growing in St. Louis that McDaniels will not be back next season and that owner Stan Kroenke will also look to replace head coach Steve Spagnolo and general manager Billy Devaney.
8. For years, fantasy owners had to be concerned about whether or not they would be able to use their Colt players during the fantasy playoffs. This year, there’s a chance that fantasy owners will have to be concerned about whether or not they can use their 49ers. Who saw that coming? With a 9-2 record and a commanding lead in the NFC West, San Francisco could clinch the division title as early as next week and, with a soft schedule, could also clinch a first round bye prior to Week 16. Monitor that situation as well as the situation in Green Bay where the undefeated Packers could very well rest several key fantasy contributors perhaps as early as Week 15.
9. The Titans used the eighth pick in the draft on quarterback Jake Locker and the expectation was that he would likely enter the starting line up sometime after the midpoint of the season once Tennessee was eliminated from playoff contention. The athletic rookie quarterback played well in his first extensive game action last week, subbing in for injured starter Matt Hasselbeck and nearly bringing the Titans to a come from behind victory over the Falcons. While Locker played well, there are no plans to insert him into the starting line up since Tennessee, at 5-5, sits just two games behind division leading Houston in the AFC South. In fact, with Hasselbeck playing well despite missing the team’s wide receiver in Kenny Britt for much of the season and running back Chris Johnson having the worst year of his career, there is a strong likelihood that he will enter 2012 as the team’s starting quarterback.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:51 pm
With three consecutive losses and their season spiraling out of control, the Buffalo Bills situation went from bad to worse with running back Fred Jackson being placed on injured reserve with a fracture to his fibula bone in his right leg.
 Jackson's injury sinks the Bills' ship. Jackson’s injury is a major blow to a Buffalo squad that unexpectedly started the season with three straight wins and at one point seemed on its way to earning at least an AFC wildcard berth. Those playoff hopes now seem faint at best with Jackson out for the season and the team facing a must win game this week on the road against the New York Jets.
With 934 rushing yards and 442 yards receiving, Jackson was second in the league in total yards from scrimmage and enjoying the finest year of his career at age 30. His receiving yardage from this season surpassed a career-high of 371 set in 2009 and he was on pace to shatter his previous high of 1,062 rushing yards, also set in 2009.
Buffalo will turn to a combination of second year player C.J. Spiller, the ninth pick in the 2010 draft, rookie 5th round pick Johnny White and Tashard Choice, claimed off waivers yesterday from Washington, to try to ignite a Bills offense that has struggled over the past three weeks. The Bills managed just 26 total points in losses to the Jets, Cowboys and Dolphins.
Fantasy Impact
Looking at the Bills offense in general, the unit figures to struggle mightily with defenses no longer having to focus their attention on stopping Jackson in the running game or out of the backfield as a receiving threat. Simply put, none of their other options out of the backfield come close to matching Jackson’s skill level in either area.
Even with Jackson, the Bills offense has struggled in recent weeks due to the loss of Eric Woods, their best offensive lineman, and a number of injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. It also seems clear that the league’s defenses have caught on to head coach Chan Gailey’s spread offense that rarely takes shots down the field due to the team’s lack of speed at wide receiver.
Spiller is clearly the most intriguing option behind Jackson but he has struggled to meet the expectations of being the ninth pick in the 2010 draft, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie and failing to provide big plays in the passing game. In addition, given his diminutive size, Spiller is ill equipped to handle 15-20 touches per game.
If a player’s use is the main gauge in determining what the coaching staff thinks of them, then Spiller’s average of 3.6 touches per game compared to Jackson’s 22 is revealing. However, general manager Buddy Nix and Gailey are responsible for selecting Spiller so they figure to give him every opportunity to hold on to the starting job down the stretch. Look for White or Choice to handle the goaline chores.
White hasn’t been used much since registering eight carries on opening day and wasn’t even a workhorse back in college at North Carolina, carrying the ball 130 times in his senior season while displaying decent receiving ability there, catching 24 balls. He might grab a few carries per game but unless he shows something quickly, look for Choice to quickly ascent to backup status behind Spiller.
As for Choice, he played well during his first two years in the league, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per reception in limited action, but has slumped over the past two seasons.
If I’m rolling the dice on one of these guys, Choice comes up a tad short of Spiller.
As for the Bills other skill position players, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly takes as a hit as he loses his highly productive outlet option and wide receiver Steve Johnson, already struggling with just four receptions over his past two games, moves into WR3 territory. Both of these players will have trouble finding the end zone with Jackson out of the line up.
By: Dave Stringer — November 22, 2011 @ 2:40 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Caleb Hanie, Bears
With Jay Cutler expected to miss the remainder of the regular season with a broken thumb, Hanie steps into the starting line up for the Bears. While Hanie has done little in the regular season over the course of his four-year career (10 of 17 for 144 yards and a pick), it’s worth noting that he played well in relief of Cutler in last year’s NFC Championship game, completing 13 of 20 passes with a touchdown and two interceptions. It’s also worth noting that offensive coordinator Mike Martz saw fit to drop Hanie to third on the depth chart at one point behind veteran journeyman Todd Collins. Ouch. Well, Collins is gone so Martz will have to ride Hanie and he has the arm strength to make some plays in the passing game.
Moving Down
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Money can change a man and that certainly seems to be the case with Fitzpatrick. I guess the Harvard grad has spent more time over the last three weeks studying his bank account than the game plan. Since signing a six-year, $59-million contract extension, he has gone stone cold with 546 passing yards, two touchdowns and seven interceptions, doing his best to make Bills management look like fools for handing him an overly generous extension. With running back Fred Jackson and leading wide receiver Steve Johnson banged up, starting wide receiver Donald Jones now out of the line up for an extended period and the league’s defenses having figured out the Bills spread offense, the next few games don’t look good for Fitzpatrick.
Tyler Palko, Chiefs
I gave him a Moving Up last week, more or less because he had an opportunity. After this week’s debacle on Monday night against the Patriots, I’m convinced he has virtually no chance of making the most of that opportunity. Not fast enough to make plays with his legs. An arm that can barely make a 15-yard throw on a rope. Only one running back or tight end capable of making something out of a short pass. With Palko starting, the Chiefs offense is doomed especially considering the Steelers, Bears and Jets are up next.
Sam Bradford, Rams
Unless Jason Smith (concussion) returns to the line up this week, the Rams are down to their second string right tackle (Adam Goldberg) and their third string left tackle (undrafted rookie free agent Kevin Hughes). That’s not good news since offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is stubbornly refusing to scale down the intermediate and deep routes that Bradford is getting killed on because the offensive line can’t hold up in pass protection. It also doesn’t help that Bradford has not proven adept at connecting on deep passes. With five touchdown passes in eight games, Bradford is suffering a sophomore slump that brings into doubt his viability in dynasty leagues.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith is going to be the leading pick up in all leagues this week, courtesy of a monster game this week against the Panthers. With Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams doing very little, Smith was signed off the street two weeks ago and given an opportunity against Carolina, gaining 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and also catching four passes for 61 yards and another touchdown. A 3rd round pick in the 2008 draft, Smith was once viewed as the Lions long term answer at running back before numerous injuries derailed his career. The latest timetable on the return of incumbent starter Jahvid Best is sometime prior to the end of the season. Consider Smith worthy of a start until Best reclaims the lead role.
Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
The Browns have already ruled out Peyton Hillis for Week 12 and head coach Pat Shumur plans to be cautious with Montario Hardesty. That means Ogbonnaya will once again be the featured back for Cleveland, this time against division rival Cincinnati. This week against the Jaguars, Ogbonnaya topped 100 total yards for the second consecutive game, gaining 115 yards and a score on the ground and catching two passes for 19 yards. Consider him a low end RB2 or solid flex play against a Bengals run defense that ranks 3rd in the league.
 Grant could be in line for a spot start in Week 12. Ryan Grant, Packers
With a Thursday game and a 12:30 ET start time, the odds of James Starks being ready after suffering knee and ankle sprains this week against the Bucs seem pretty low. That means he will miss a chance to shine against the Lions 27th ranked run defense. Enter Grant who gained 92 yards on 17 carries against the Bears in Week 3 in his only double-digit carry game of the season.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
He ain’t sexy, he’s my AP handcuff. With Adrian Peterson unlikely to play this week against the Falcons due to a high ankle sprain, Gerhart will step into the starting line up for the Vikings. It was ugly for Gerhart this week with just 18 yards on seven carries but it’s not like AP did much in that game either (six for 26). In Gerhart’s only start in his 2010 rookie season, he played well against the Bears, gaining 77 yards on 16 carries and catching three balls for 18 yards. He’s not going to get you a win in Week 12 but he’s not likely to be an albatross either.
C.J. Spiller, Bills
With Fred Jackson day to day with a calf injury, Spiller figures to give up some of his pass receiving duties and line up more frequently in the backfield in Week 12, although Jackson is expected to play. Unfortunately, Spiller struggled at the goal line this week and will face a stiff challenge against the Jets in what amounts to a must win game for the Bills. He has been persona non grata in the run game for most of the season, with a season high five carries back in Week 1, no carries in two straight games (Weeks 6 and 8 ) and six carries over the last three weeks (for eight yards). So, no, don’t get too excited.
Moving Down
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
So much for Mathews becoming a consistent fantasy threat at running back in 2011. After topping 100 total yards in each of his first five games and scoring three touchdowns over that stretch, Mathews has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points in his last four games and failed to score in six straight games. He is coming off his worst rushing performance of the year, gaining just 37 yards on 13 carries against the Bears this week. While the groin injury he suffered in Week 10 doesn’t appear to be hindering him, the Bolts banged up offensive line is definitely an issue.
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
Battle was getting a healthy dose of touches for four straight games (averaging 17.3 per game) but that’s come to an end over the last two weeks and the running back situation in Kansas City now seems to be a three headed fantasy monster with Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones splitting time. That makes Battle a risky start in all formats, especially considering that the Chiefs have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the league and will be using the noodle armed Tyler Palko at quarterback.
Wide Recievers
Moving Up
Jordy Nelson, Packers
Meet the Packers top fantasy wide receiver. To the back seat, Mr. Jennings. With his second consecutive two-touchdown performance, Nelson moved past Jennings in the fantasy points race and is now the third ranked fantasy wide receiver behind only Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker. Suffice it to say that nobody saw that coming. Nelson has been on a tear over the last five weeks, catching 22 of his 25 targets for 447 yards and six touchdowns. If only the Packers coaches would up that target total.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Meet the Giants top fantasy wide receiver. That’s right, folks, that honor goes to Victor Cruz. Who woulda thunk it? With defenses focused on shutting down Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham missing time and continuing to struggle with consistency, Cruz has been on fire for the Giants. This week, the former undrafted free agent beat Eagles high priced cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha for a touchdown for the second consecutive game this season on his way to six receptions, 128 yards, and 18.8 fantasy points. Cruz has been Mr. Reliable over his last eight games, gaining at least 84 yards in every game save for a Week 6 clunker against the Bills where he caught two passes for 12 yards.
Jerome Simpson, Bengals
When Simpson is the Man, he looks good. When he’s playing second fiddle, he’s useless. Figure that one out. In two starts at the end of last season, with Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens on the shelf, Simpson looked like a world beater, catching 18 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns, this after catching three passes over the first 46 games of his career. With rookie A.J. Green taking over as the team’s lead wide receiver, Simpson was quiet for most of the first nine games of this season, save for a pair of 100-yard outings. With Green out this week, he went off for eight receptions for 152 yards, easily his best performance of the season. While Green may play this week, the knee injury he suffered in Week 9 may hold him back, making Simpson a reasonably decent option if you are desperate.
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Lee Evans was back in the line up and Smith basically gave that the ole so what? Evans had just one target to Smith’s seven and he made sure he made the most of them, catching six passes for 165 yards and a touchdown in a key Ravens win over the Bengals. Smith now has scores in two of his last three games and the target split this week seems to indicate that Smith owners have no worries about Evans eating into his opportunities.
Santana Moss, Redskins
He was likely dumped in most redraft leagues and he almost ready to return from the broken hand he suffered in Week 6, maybe even by Week 12. If you’re desperate and the waiver wire is empty, grab Moss a week early.
Moving Down
Steve Johnson, Bills
Johnson started the season on a tear for the Bills, proving that his breakout 2010 season of 82 receptions for 1,073 yards and ten touchdowns was no fluke. Or was it? With 24 receptions for 314 yards and three touchdowns over his first four games, Johnson appeared well on his way to establishing himself as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. However, in the six games since then, he has just 22 receptions for 233 yards and one touchdown and he is trending downward with two receptions in each of his last two games and no touchdowns in four straight contests. Defenses seem to have figured out the Bills spread offense and it is possible that the shoulder injury Johnson suffered in Week 10 is hindering his production.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Eight receptions for 68 yards in his last two games. Opposing defenses are focusing on shutting him down. Just saying, although it is worth noting that not many teams have the quality cornerbacks that the Jets and Chiefs possess.
Devin Hester, Bears
Hester was only worth owning in deeper leagues but with no targets in his last two games, he’s not worth owning in any league.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Let’s just say that Gronkowski has been on an absolute tear over the last four weeks, blowing past the Saints Jimmy Graham to become the top rated fantasy tight end thus far in 2011. With a pair of touchdowns this week against the Chiefs, Gronkowski has now scored five touchdowns over his last three games and is up to ten on the season. In addition, he has 404 receiving yards over his last four games and has become the team’s main receiving threat with opposing defenses focused on shutting down Wes Welker. Consider Gronkowski a solid bet to be the top rated tight end at season’s end.
Moving Down
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
With Gronkowski on a roll, Hernandez has seen his playing time and opportunities reduced to the point where he’s a touchdown or bust option at tight end. That was fine and dandy when he was scoring a touchdown a game for three straight weeks but he hasn’t found the end zone for two straight weeks. Ignoring the touchdowns, let’s recap his last four games: two receptions for nine yards (four targets), four receptions for 35 yards (five tarets), four receptions for 41 yards (five targets), four receptions for 44 yards (seven targets).
Fred Davis, Redskins
When Santana Moss went down with an injury in Week 6, Davis’ fantasy outlook seemed to brighten since he was clearly the team’s last remaining playmaking threat in the passing game. That theory held up well when Davis has a pair of solid games in Weeks 7 and 8 but in the three games since then, he has tallied just 13 receptions for 119 yards. It looks like the Redskins poor quarterback play is dragging down a player who was coming into his own in his fourth season in the league.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:38 am
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 11, the most bizarre week of football viewing in my life, was quite entertaining nonetheless. With the Saints, Steelers, and Texans all on bye, I suppose the mice came out to play. Backups went bananas, starters disappeared, bad teams won, good teams lost, et cetera. Let’s see if we can sort this mess out.
Tebow–Jets
The Broncos defense may be keeping it together for 55 minutes while their quarterback plays his position like a running back, but it is Tebow in the last few minutes that is stealing all the thunder. I wouldn’t say I’m a Tebow apologist, but I am a Tebow hopeful. I would love to see him succeed and I would love to see the Broncos win the division to cement his place with the team. Due to his extreme popularity and single-handed comeback ability, yours truly will refer to the Denver Broncos as the Denver Tebow from now on.
As for the Jets…Wow, how ‘bout them Jets! I’ll tell ya what, I’ll always take a quarterback with faulty playing mechanics and the right attitude over a quarterback with good coachables but who lacks those intangibles. I don’t mean to come down too hard on Sanchez, I think he’s a fine quarterback, but he just doesn’t seem to have the “it” factor that star quarterbacks have. If the Jets can get a running game going, however, they might not need a star quarterback. For that matter, the Tebow might not either.
Bills–Dolphins
If someone had asked me in Week 4 or 5, “Which passer will throw three touchdowns in Week 11, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Moore?” Needless to say, I would’ve picked Fitzpatrick. In fact, I was near certain that Andrew Luck would be a Dolphin this time next year. However, the Dolphins are looking like world-beaters, and the plucky Bills are regressing more and more with each passing week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any Buffalo player, even Fred Jackson; though if you’ve got Jackson, I’m sure you have to start him.
For the Dolphins, how is Matt Moore slinging the way he is yet Brandon Marshall was outgained in yardage by five other Miami players? I’m going to desperately hope this was a fluke (Marshall did have two end zone targets) and that he will be back to form next week against the Cowboys in what should be a shootout, given the Dolphins’ recent success.
Bengals–Ravens
At least for one week, Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson became the future superstars they’ve been touted as by fans. Anquan Boldin’s stat line looked as it should, and Smith had his second great game on the season. Simpson is a talented receiver and should continue to produce for the Bengals, and he’ll also continue to contribute heavily to your fantasy team as long as A.J. Green is out.
Jaguars–Browns
Just to make sure some piece of the world remained sane, the Jags and the Browns both stank. It is my belief that any team that enters Cleveland Browns Stadium, and EverBank Field to a lesser degree, instantly degrades. If the Packers played the Browns in Cleveland, I’m sure they would score less than 30 points. As for fantasy, MJD was the only man on the field worth a weekly start. Marcedes Lewis showed up long enough to sucker some people into picking him up, but I’m certain that passing attack will disappear in Cincinnati next week.
Cowboys–Redskins
DeMarco Murray proved that he will be the starting running back of the future, and Laurent Robinson continues to be a fantasy force this season. I’m playing all Dallas starters for the foreseeable future, and I’m not starting a single Redskin.
 The new starter in Detroit. Panthers–Lions
I really liked Kevin Smith in his rookie season, and then injuries ruined his career, or so I had assumed. However, this performance will make Smith the Lions’ starter until he gets hurt or Jahvid Best comes back (good luck). How about Calvin Johnson’s zero touchdowns in a Brandon Marshall-esque performance? I’m not worried in the slightest, but I’m sure this added to the frustration of this week’s weirdness for many fantasy owners. For the Panthers, Cam Newton is going to be a great quarterback and Steve Smith will continue to produce as this year continues, so I wouldn’t change my opinion on either based on this game.
Twenty-nine points and I nearly won?!
This week yours truly had the worst fantasy week of his career: 29 points. In standard scoring, Eli Manning, Ryan Mathews, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, and Jake Ballard all did nothing for me. Funny thing about this week, though, I only lost by 20 points! Like I said at the beginning, while the cats are on bye, the mice…will…fly?
Buccaneers–Packers
Let’s say this first, I’m not buying much of this Bucs offense, passing or rushing, until I see it in consecutive weeks. Now for the team with far more fantasy impact, Jordy Nelson has nearly doubled Greg Jennings’ output for the season. It is extremely hard for me to say that any receiver is much better than Jennings, even Calvin Johnson, but Nelson has made a strong case for himself. At this point, the only advice concerning Green Bay players is, sit them at your own risk. If you own a Packer who will take the field on game day, there is a favorable likelihood that he catches a touchdown.
Raiders–Vikings
Dear Adrian Peterson, please, please, please come back to us soon. We don’t need another injured RB! Whether or not Peterson plays next week, pick up Gerhart and start him against the Falcons. I would also do the same with Percy Harvin, as he may prove to be flex-worthy for the remainder of the year. It has taken the Vikings over half a season to get it together, but it is possible that this offense may be coming alive a little bit. For the Raiders, here are your starters: the starting running back and Sebastian Janikowski. Sea Bass is the man, and whichever running back is the starter is going to be lethal every week.
The Color Silver
The Raiders had a nifty 12 penalties for 117 yards this week. That is epic. To put it in comparison, Carson Palmer threw for only 164 yards and the rushing attack combined for 162. So, essentially, the penalties cancelled out nearly one half of their offense. Amazing! If this collection of players played for another team, they’d probably be winning their division by a landslide right now.
Seahawks–Rams
If you have Marshawn Lynch and can pull this off, I’d find Jahvid Best or Darren McFadden’s owner and try to unload Lynch in exchange. He’s scored a good amount of touchdowns this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his point total right now is very close to what his point total will be when the season wraps up. For the poor, sad, helpless Rams, you’ve got to just keep holding out hope. Bradford was brilliant in his rookie year, and I had high hopes for him in his second year behind center. Unfortunately, the skill positions are so mediocre on this team that there are simply too few options for him to be successful with. Similar to Lynch, Steven Jackson might find that his best days of this season are behind him, and he might be another player you should try to trade, if you can find a good deal.
The Color Silver, Part 2
The Seahawks, also in epic fashion, had 13 penalties for an even 100 yards. In a performance fit for a jester, Seattle tripped all over themselves for 60 minutes. It was as if they said, “Alright, Marshawn Lynch, we’ll see your semi-productive fantasy day and raise you a whole heap of silly mistakes!” Well done, Seahawks, well done.
Cardinals–49ers
Hey, remember that time when the Cardinals were excited about the prospect of John Skelton? No? Okay, how about the time when they paid up a whole bunch of money and picks for Kevin Kolb? You’d like to forget? I understand… Well how about that time Richard Bartel averaged eight yards per pass attempt and John Skelton threw three picks? Ah. Amnesia, I see.
You could argue whether it was Arizona’s quarterback play or the 49er defense that actually kept the Cards to just 11 first downs, but that wouldn’t be fair to the San Fran D. They have been rock solid this season and should be started every week from here on out. It has been a rough year for Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, but, if they can recreate some of this magic come early December against the Rams (which, believe it or not, is actually harder said than done), they may yet be fantasy stars in the playoffs.
Titans–Falcons
The Falcons deviated just slightly from their winningest game plan, which is running the ball with Michael Turner more times than they pass. Technically, Turner ran only 21 times to Ryan’s 22 passes, but it was enough to slay the sleepy Titans. For the Titans, it was business as usual. And by business as usual, I mean Chris Johnson not being worth a fantasy start and a random receiver raking in a lot of yards. This week it was Nate Washington, but I wouldn’t count on that type of production from him again this year.
Chargers–Bears
Somehow, all of a sudden, the Bears are looking nasty on offense and defense. They’re in a scary position with Cutler possibly being out for the remainder of the regular season, though if they can hang in there for a wild card spot, they might have him back for the playoffs. I say put Hanie out there, let Forte run for 30-plus times every game, and let your defense do the rest. I wouldn’t start any Bear involved with their passing game.
For the Chargers, they were awfully proud of their 4-1 start and claimed they were bucking their trend of starting slow. It seems now that they are continuing to buck that trend by slowing down in the second half. The Chicago D is strong, possibly the best defense in the NFL of late, but this Chargers offense has the personnel to be the best in the league if they’d just play like it. That being said, I’m still starting any San Diego skill-position players against weaker defenses.
Eagles–Giants
Hey, remember that time when DeSean Jackson went crazy and won the matchup with late-game heroics in the return game? Yeah that was awesome. Remember the first half of this season when Jeremy Maclin was playing like a dominant receiver? Yep. He sure was. However, in this game, it was Riley Cooper and Steve Smith scoring the touchdowns. And while Jackson did have 88 yards receiving, he didn’t have any more receptions than Brent Celek. In fact, while Vince Young is the starter, I’m not starting any Philly pass catcher not named Celek. You just can’t guess which receiver he’ll target at this point.
For the Giants, what a miserable and hideous performance, and that’s not just because they had a major hand in ruining my fantasy week. So far, in this rough stretch of their schedule, they’ve got only one win, and that was against an especially bad New England secondary. Look for the Giants to struggle again next week versus the Saints in a Superdome that is always electric on Monday Night. I’ll pass on all Giants next week.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On Julian Edelman’s playmaking in all three phases of the game:
“Where does Bill Bellichick find these guys?!”
This week, I was unable to hear the always delightful Chris Collinsworth, so Coach Gruden stepped in for him. I wonder how many players since the merger have a punt return for a touchdown, a tackle on a kick return, a pass target, and a defensive tackle all in the same game. Now that would be a hyper-specific stat for the ages.
Did Chris say something that deserved to be in this space? Let me know in the comments section!
Chiefs–Patkowskis
Believe it or not, this 34-3 Patriots blowout was a 3-0 Kansas City lead in the waning minutes of the second quarter. In fashion with the rest of the week, Wes Welker was out-received by running back Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen was the New England running back with a touchdown by the game’s end. If the Patriots continue to roll, look for them to be the AFC’s fantasy version of the Packers. By that I mean, sit any Patriot at your own risk.
For the Chiefs, it was a promising first half. Palko made some nice throws and good decisions, and the Chiefs defensive line was fired up. Classically, the Chiefs came out in the second half and blew it because they’re not used to winning. We’ve seen this a few times this year out of a number of historically bad franchises that had a chance to hang in there or ice a game. The Redskins, the Bills, and the Lions have all been in that situation this year. Right now I wouldn’t touch any Chief with a ten-foot pole. Not even Dwayne Bowe. Not even if Dwayne Bowe had some Ollie Gates barbeque.
P.S. No wonder they’re the Patkowskis, Rob can fly! Well, it was more like falling with style.
And that’s it! An absolutely maddening Week 11 is in the books. Hopefully the world will revert to normal as three of the four likely division winners return to the field. Next week, look for the Saints to get up big against the Giants in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Yuck. I can’t believe it’s called that now.
By: Dave Stringer — November 15, 2011 @ 5:00 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Leinart, Texans
With 46 consecutive starts, Matt Schaub had gone a long ways in establishing that he wasn’t the injury prone player many thought he was after a pair of 11 start seasons when he became the Texans QB beginning in 2007. Unfortunately, he suffered a lis franc injury that will likely end his 2011 season. Enter Leinart, who hasn’t thrown a pass since the 2009 season. At least with the Texans having a bye in Week 11, he will have an extra week to get ready for Houston’s Week 12 matchup against the Jaguars. Unfortunately, it is anybody’s guess as to how Leinart will perform. Considering he did little in Arizona with a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, we should all keep our expectations in check. That being said, the Texans have a talented offense with a strong running game so Leinart does have a chance to surprise.
Tyler Palko, Chiefs
Speaking of keeping expectations in check, I present to you Tyler Palko. Who? Great question. Who knows. I don’t profess to. Why? Because Matt Cassel has, in the word of Chiefs head coach Todd Haley, a significant hand injury. Since teams keep these things pretty close to the vest, let’s assume Palko’s the man in K.C. for at least a couple of weeks. That gives him an opportunity. Now if only he were surrounded by some better talent. With no dynamic threat at running back and a lack of a pass receiving tight end, Palko shouldn’t be in your starting line up until he puts together a pair of decent games. If your options are Leinart or Palko, take Leinart.
John Skelton, Cardinals
Can you say spark? John Skelton’s record as a starter in 2011: 2-0. Kevin Kolb’s record as a starter in 2011: 1-6. And that win came in Week 1. So, let’s assume you are Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt, what guy do you start? Production says Skelton. At $65-million over five years, contract says Kolb. Skelton was the top ranked fantasy passer on Sunday, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns. The two picks weren’t great but if you play in a league that doesn’t punish interceptions and you’re desperate for a bye week fill in, Skelton might be your man.
Vince Young, Eagles
With Michael Vick likely out with broken ribs, Young is likely in, given that he went in for a snap this week when Vick went down. Or maybe it will be Mike Kafka, who didn’t exactly play horribly earlier this season. As usual with Young, there are question marks such as whether he knows the offense. In his one snap this week, he had to be told to line up in the shotgun. The upside is there, there is talent on offense but Young seems like a scary proposition.
Moving Down
Michael Vick, Eagles
The Philadelphia Heat, errr Eagles, are officially in the tank and Vick’s outstanding 2010 season was a, errr, fluke? Maybe. He’s been completely average the past couple of weeks and has two broken ribs, DeSean Jackson might be ready to pull a diva act (continue pulling a diva act?), the team might be ready to tank it (has already tanked it?) and head coach Andy Reid is on the ropes in Philadelphia and may need six consecutive wins in order to land the Eagles in the playoffs and ensure his return in 2012. Note all the question marks? Vick’s just one of them.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Note to Matt Stafford: thanks for letting us know after the game that you were playing with a broken ring finger. Note to self: don’t believe Matt Stafford when he tells you that his horrible inaccuracy had nothing to do with his broken ring finger. Note to self: don’t start Stafford until he puts together a solid game. Stafford put up 20.6 fantasy points this week but needed 63 passes to get there. In a game that was even remotely close, he would have been a fantasy dud this week. I’m worried about the finger and Stafford owners should consider their options.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Steven Jackson, Rams
I took a whole pile of slack for suggesting in my Dave’s Take column that the man known as Sjax had a solid schedule over the second half of the season. The naysayers seemed to think I was off my rocker and that Jackson was ready to reitre to his rocker. Sure enough, three straight 100-yard games later we have our answer. Sorry for gloating but sometimes I can’t help myself.
Lance Ball, Broncos
Bam, down goes McGahee. Bam, down goes, Moreno. Bam, in comes Lance Ball? That’s right and if that’s a surprise, the 30 carries for 96 yards he put up this week against the Chiefs will also come as a surprise. Do I sound stoked? Okay, I’m not that stoked. Although Moreno is out for the year with a torn ACL, McGahee is apparently set to practice today and the Broncos surely can’t run it 55 times and throw it just eight games in another game this season, can they? They play Thursday so McGahee may not be 100% by then. That’s good. What’s not good is that they face the Jets and I expect their defense to show the league just how prehistoric the Broncos offense really is. One more for the good: McGahee just can’t seem to stay healthy this season. Ball is a decent option in larger leagues and not a bad one if you’re in dire straits at running back.
Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
A week after looking like a lost puppy against the Texans (13 carries for 28 yards), Ogbonnaya was surprisingly solid this week against the Rams. He ran with some authority and made a couple of guys miss on his way to a 19 carry, 90-yard performance. He also chipped in a pair of catches for 19 yards to hit double-digit fantasy points. The Jaguars are on tap in Week 11 and if Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty are out yet again, Ogbonnaya rates as a low end RB2 or decent flex option.
Moving Down
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
He’s not getting the ball and he’s not doing much with it when he does get it. The Law Firm last scored in Week 5 against the Jets but in the four games since then, he has managed just 149 yards on 41 carries. Can I get my retainer back? Okay, bad pun but I’ve been guilty of worse. At this point, BJGE isn’t a guy you want in your starting line up, no matter the matchup.
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
The issue with Blount isn’t so much his performance. It’s the situation. The Bucs defensive line is in shambles, the offense isn’t clicking and Blount doesn’t see the field when they are playing from behind due to his poor receiving skills and pass blocking abilities. With the Bucs playing from behind against the Texans and unable to stop the Houston rushing attack, Blount had just ten carries for 34 yards this week. Next up are the Packers so expect more of the same.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
 Denarius Moore is the WR to own in the Raiders passing game. Denarius Moore, Raiders
Let’s see. Darrius Heyward-Bey is in the doghouse and Jacoby Ford’s going to be on the inactive list while the tight end position is persona non grata in Oakland’s offensive scheme. Looks like Moore should be in line for some major targets in the Raiders Week 11 road game against the Vikings, who have some major issues at cornerback – just lost Antoine Winfield and got scorched on Monday night by the Packers. No, Carson Palmer is not Aaron Rodgers but he doesn’t need to be for Moore to have a big game. Look no further than last week’s five-reception, 123-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Chargers.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
Every so often you’re just plain wrong about something and thus far in 2011, I’ve been wrong about Brown. I figured Emmanuel Sanders was the anointed one to take over for Hines Ward. Wrong. I figured Brown’s targets would dry up. Wrong. I figured Brown wasn’t all that dynamic. Wrong. In fact, the only thing from preventing him from being a WR2 so far in 2011 is a lack of touchdowns. As it is, he is currently the 25th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Brown has been Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend over the past four weeks, catching 26 of his 41 targets for 364 yards and a touchdown. There’s nothing to suggest this should change going forward.
Vincent Brown, Chargers
With Malcom Floyd on the shelf with a hip injury, Brown looked solid on Thursday night against the Raiders, putting together his second strong performance in as many weeks. The rookie 3rd round pick caught five of nine targets for 97 yards and a touchdown and had another score reversed on replay. The previous week he caught four of six targets for 79 yards. With defenses focused on shutting down Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates and Floyd one of the most injury prone wide receivers in the league, Brown may emerge as a solid WR3 option over the next several weeks. With three of the Chargers next four games against opponents with pass defenses ranked 20th or lower, Brown is worth a look if Floyd remains out of the lineup.
Harry Douglas, Falcons
When Julio Jones went down this week, Douglas stepped up to have a career game against the Saints. The 2008 3rd round pick had career highs in targets, receptions and yards, finishing the game with eight receptions for 133 yards. The Falcons have been mum on the status of Jones’ hamstring injury but it certainly looks like he will miss Atlanta’s Week 11 home matchup against the Titans. If that’s the case, Douglas is worthy of a start.
Moving Down
Hines Ward, Steelers
Not only is Ward no longer starting in Pittsburgh, he’s not even seeing the field in three wide receiver sets, even though Emmanuel Sanders is hurt. Yeah, that’s right, he’s playing behind Jerricho Cotchery, the same Jerricho Cotchery who has six receptions for 83 yards and a score this season. Looks like the gig is up for Ward in Pittsburgh and the gig should be up for Ward’s inclusion on your fantasy roster, if it wasn’t already.
Roddy White, Falcons
For whatever reasons, the 2008-2010 magic is gone for White. This year, he’s been decidedly average, putting up just 8.3 fantasy points per game after averaging 11.7 over the previous three seasons. In fact, he’s on pace to finish 2011 with 1,001 yards and five touchdowns which would translate into his worst season since becoming a full time starter in 2007. Perhaps the knee and thigh injuries he’s experienced this season are holding him back more than he has let on. Regardless, he’s a far cry from his former self and nine games into the season, it’s safe to say he’s not the top three wide receiver most expected he would be.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Two receptions for 17 yards last week and now catching passes from Tyler Palko. Let’s just say that Bowe is very unlikely to finish 2011 as a top ten wide receiver given the current state of Kansas City’s offense.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Ed Dickson, Ravens
Dickson started out the season in strong fashion, catching five passes for 59 yards and a score in a Week 1 win over Pittsburgh. With Todd Heap in Arizona and Lee Evans on the shelf beginning in Week 2, the hope was that Dickson would emerge as a solid receiving option behind wide receiver Anquan Bolden and that performance only help fuel that hope. Let’s just say that never materialized, with Dickson failing to find the end zone over the following seven games or top 51 yards receiving. This week against the Seahawks, he was a bigger part of the game plan, catching ten of 14 targets for 79 yards and a pair of scores. Move Dickson up to solid TE2 for the balance of the season.
Moving Down
Greg Olsen, Panthers
With a touchdown in every game from Week 3 to Week 5, Olsen was shaping up as an expectedly solid TE1 early in 2011. However, the wheels have come off since then with just one trip to the end zone over his past four games. In addition, some of the chemistry he had with rookie quarterback Cam Newton has gone by the wayside, with the two connecting on just 14 of their past 31 targets, hardly an inspiring completion percentage for a tight end.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:39 am
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 10 was a week to remember, from teams winning despite only completing two passes, to the Cowboys posting their best winning margin in 31 years. But first, let’s get right into it with a game that had major playoff consequences.
Saints–Falcons
As is nearly always the case with these two teams, the game went right down to the wire and was decided by a field goal. The Falcons are very physical, a style that usually matches up well against the Saints’ high-flying offense and is able to wear them down. However, these two teams have so much dislike for each other that it is always a competitive game. The Saints were even able to contain the bowling ball that is Michael Turner (and yes, 96 yards on 22 carries is containing him). Next week, look for the Falcons to vent their frustrations on the Titans in Atlanta and put up big fantasy points across the board. Also, look for the Saints to ride the high of that win into the bye week and then come out with coin-flip odds of being either inspired or overwhelmed when they face the New York Giants at home.
P.S. Speaking of coin flips, want to win a bar bet? I’d be willing to put serious money up that the Saints win every coin toss for the remainder of the regular season. They lost the opener to the Falcons to make it ten straight, then they lost it again in overtime. Eleven consecutive coin-flip losses is an anomaly that is simply unsustainable. I will be looking to cash in on the improbability of that streak continuing.
Bengals–Steelers
The Saints and Falcons both got points from receivers (Robert Meachem and Harry Douglas, respectively) who probably aren’t going to be valuable for the long haul. In the same way, I’m not expecting Jerricho Cotchery’s big points here to continue. Cotchery may have more worthwhile games in the future, but there are too many guys in front of him to make him an every-week start. A few weeks ago I stated that Cincinnati’s attitude and youth movement had righted their ship. And as I always say, I’ll take less-skilled guys on teams trending up before I take high-skill guys on teams in decline. If A.J. Green had stayed healthy, I’d be suggesting that Dalton may be a nice backup for Schaub, Roethlisberger, or Brees next week. Since Green is hurt, however, I can’t say that Dalton is startable in any game until Green returns.
 The Bills are stumbling in the second half. Bills–Cowboys
I had really been hoping that the Bills would compete in this division for the whole season. Fitzpatrick and company had been circling the wagons and manufacturing those dangerously popular comebacks all season long. Now we’re seeing that style of play rear its ugly head in a few bad losses in a row. Truly good teams get up and stay up. I’m not saying the first eight weeks of the season were a fluke, I’m just saying the Bills aren’t going to be the Independent Party of the AFC East like I’d been hoping for. You’ve got to play Steve Johnson and Fred Jackson if you have them, but you should temper your expectations. This team is wearing down for the stretch.
For the Cowboys, I’d start all your guys and then close your eyes and plug your ears. The appropriately named Romocoaster will likely go crazy and inflate all of those Dallas playmakers’ numbers…or he’ll cost you your week by blowing up the INT column.
P.S. Pick up Laurent Robinson. He’s not going anywhere even when Austin comes back. He was good in St. Louis and he’s been phenomenal in Dallas.
Rams–Browns
If I could properly illustrate it verbally, my analysis of this game would describe my scrambling for a trash can before I threw up. Lloyd and Jackson are great, high-talent guys on a terrible team, despite their having one of my favorite young quarterbacks in Sam Bradford. For the Browns, the DST is the only part of this team I would start this year. If Peyton Hillis comes back, I’m not starting him against any defense until I see him chalk up two touchdowns and a hundred yards in one game. This Cleveland team is very bad and very conservative and will not net you many fantasy points. I continue to hold that these Browns would be better off now and in the long run had they just drafted Julio Jones instead of using the “lions share” approach and taking chances on a lot of lower-ranked guys.
Broncos–Chiefs
I am not a crazy Tebow fan. I hated him when he was the all-star quarterback of the Florida Gators. I am, however, a believer in his will to win. Here are the facts through the eyes of an NFL scout: Kyle Orton has far better measurables and veteran knowledge than Tebow. Here are the other facts: Since the Broncos drafted Tebow, they’ve gone 5-4 with him and 4-14 without him. They’re in position to share the lead in the AFC West if they can somehow stump the Jets this Thursday. I’m not saying that’s an easy task, but the Broncos haven’t been in any sort of contention since Jay Cutler was under center.
It definitely isn’t pretty, but I would say there aren’t many teams that could win if their quarterback completed only two passes, even against the hapless Chiefs. To put it another way, I bet Curtis Painter would look better in training camp than Tebow, and look how the Colts are doing. Plus, if Tebow can get Denver to eight or nine wins this year, I’m sure he’ll start to win over that locker room.
For the Chiefs, the sad tale of this downward spiral continues as Matt Cassel was lost for the season. They may go the rest of the season without another win in his absence, as they were absolutely slaughtered early on when his elbow was injured.
P.S. Pick up Lance Ball.
Jaguars–Colts
Jones-Drew 09 (YouTube it) was a stud once again, this time against a team that has sadly quit on their season. Peyton Manning must be so frustrated at those guys! Since the Dolphins inexplicably won another game and effectively dashed their own hopes of drafting the coveted Andrew Luck, it seems that the inexhaustible imagery for the next decade will be the Stanford quarterback and the horseshoe. As for fantasy advice, my only advice for Colts owners is to find someone else. I’d think long and hard about Jerome Simpson over Reggie Wayne the rest of the way, as unfortunate as that is.
Titans–Panthers
I saw a certain author on the net call Chris Johnson CJ0K. Hilarious! I’m all for it. I think this particular game was a flash in the pan. The Titans have a fairly soft rushing schedule coming up, but I’m still not touching this mess. If Johnson can look impressive on the field and in the stat line, I might consider him an RB2. He’s a flex play otherwise. In the same light as Meachem, Douglas, and Cotchery, I think Damian Williams is too inconsistent to be trusted. For the Panthers, pretend this game didn’t happen. Newton and Smith will be back to their old selves next week against a Detroit defense that is burnable in the secondary and easy to run against between the tackles.
Redskins–Dolphins
Mike Shanahan proved why players on his teams are ineligible for fantasy starts. I’m sure if he didn’t fear for his job, he would change starting quarterbacks and running backs every week, if not every series. I almost picked up Roy Helu this week, but conventional wisdom told me it was better to take a player with less upside than try to guess what is going on in the wacky world of Shanahan. For the Dolphins, I think Reggie Bush is legit. I don’t think he’ll get two touchdowns every game, but I do think this will be his most statistically impressive year yet. Maybe it’s the Pizza Hut.
Cardinals–Eagles
In opposite fashion of Cam Newton, John Skelton put up crazy numbers in this game but is still underwhelming overall. I’m sure Skelton felt as if he had something to prove, fresh off his rare two-safeties-allowed performance last week. I believe this game would have garnered a lot more media attention had Kevin Kolb been able to give it a go, as the “versus his old team” bit always gets the crowd going. For the Eagles, they’re not close to mathematically eliminated, but I think their chances are pretty slim all the same. If the news regarding Michael Vick’s two broken ribs is accurate, however, Philly may be eliminated from contention sooner rather than later.
Texans–Buccaneers
The Buccaneers, similar to the Eagles, are not mathematically removed from contention, but there is little hope of their making the playoffs. It’s been a bad year for their promising young franchise quarterback, but he has plenty of time to jump right back into the elite quarterback discussion next year. This year, however, Tampa Bay is a lost fantasy cause, a la the Browns and Rams. There may be some fantasy goodness yet to be squeezed, but looking elsewhere will probably yield higher rewards.
For the Texans, it’s time for another quarterback—whom most have no faith in—to step up. Matt Leinart will take the reins for the Texans the rest of the season, and I personally hope he does extremely well. Just as with Cam Newton, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, and Tim Tebow, I feel like we’re far too hard on Leinart and that he needs to be given a real chance to shine. I’m not saying he’ll be Kurt Warner, I’m just saying I’m probably picking him up in case he proves himself.
P.S. Andre Johnson will be back after the bye. The No. 1 RB and WR sure can make a good QB look great.
Giants–49ers
Most of the nation got their first look at the red hot San Francisco 49ers this weekend, and surely they were impressed. Even though Frank Gore didn’t really get it going on the ground, OSU alum Kendall Hunter did well enough to keep the Niners in for the win. Many, including yours truly, thought the Niners would be great last year under Singletary, but they proved to be miserable. Precious few had faith this year, yet San Francisco is likely to receive a first-week bye as they head into the playoffs. Let it be known, if the 49ers and Packers meet in the NFC Championship game, my money is on the super vindictive Aaron Rodgers throwing ten touchdowns just to stick it to the team that passed on him as the No. 1 overall pick.
For the Giants, I am all in. They are always overlooked in their division, and Eli Manning is the anti-Romo, in that his skill far surpasses his popularity. That isn’t to say the Romocoaster isn’t skilled, only that his fame exceeds his accomplishments. I’m starting Eli, I’m starting Hakeem, Mario, and Victor, and I’m starting whichever RB is first on the depth chart every Sunday from here on out.
Ravens – Seahawks
In an interesting turn of events, Ray Rice had a better passer rating in this game than Joe Flacco. Now, Rice only threw one pass for one yard but it was for a TD in a game where points were at a premium. Seattle is truly a tough place to play on the road and the Ravens have long been beatable when outside of Baltimore, so this isn’t a complete surprise. There is no shame in losing to the Seahawks at home. However, when you can only muster 17 points and 331 yards from scrimmage against them, there is no excuse. Start Rice every week and consider all else a matchup play as smart owners have been doing all season.
For the Seahawks, beware of anyone who is bad to mediocre for weeks then all of a sudden dominant. In a week full of flash-in-the-pan fantasy performances, I’m sure many will be picking up Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch this week. Here is my advice to you: don’t. Unless your waiver wire has been absolutely bled dry, there should be someone out there who can help your team more.
Bears – Lions
If yours truly had been asked during the preseason, “When the Bears and the Lions play, who will be the better quarterback?” I would’ve answered, “Matt Stafford if he’s healthy.” Cutler has made great strides this year and has really risen from the ashes of his infamy with a new public perception of courageousness and toughness. He didn’t put up any great stats and his completion percentage was below average but he also didn’t throw any picks and made sure his team didn’t blow the lead. If Cutler had been able to do that his whole career he’d be a heck of a lot better than hovering around .500.
For the Lions, don’t take this game to heart. Along with Cutler, the Bears D is really stepping up down the stretch. I’m still starting all of the regulars from this Lions team, but I’m probably also sitting some of the fringe starters like Titus Young and “Detroit RB” until further notice.
Patriots–Jets
The Jets—and namely Mark Sanchez—gave the Patriots a gift on Sunday Night. This was, to me, a classic example of the Jets letting their emotions get the best of them. The Patriots are the Jabberwocky of Rex Ryan’s team, and the Jets are little more than a mosquito annoyingly nipping at the skin of the Patriots. The teams are equally talented and both are greatly coached, but the Patriots mean far too much to the Jets. As far as fantasy goes, I’m starting New England offensive stars if I’ve got them and I’m hanging onto Ochocinco for one week longer, as there was a little spark between him and Brady on Sunday night.
For the Jets, I’ve always felt that their offense is too conservative to be effective in fantasy. I think Holmes and Burress are both overrated in both ability and accomplishments, despite both having clutch grabs in Super Bowls of old. I’ve lost faith in Shonn Greene or Mark Sanchez ever becoming statistically dominant. If New York plays well against the Broncos on Thursday, I suggest selling high on any Jets you have.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On the Patriots lack of depth in the defensive secondary:
“Guess who made the tackle? Julian Edelman, the wide receiver, playing Troy Brown’s role now from days gone by. That’s how thin they are right now at corner, they don’t want to take any more chances with the corners they have left.”
If defensive players were clothing, the Patriots would be in their skivvies. If defensive players were food, the Patriots would be starving. If defensive players were money, the Patriots would be the national deficit. Ok, I’m sure you get the idea. They have no defense. They’re not just bad, they’re non-existent.
Raiders–Chargers
Carson Palmer, despite a couple more interceptions (he now has eight in three games), looked pretty good on Sunday. Personally, I don’t see Housh having a chance at staying on the field ahead of the tremendous athletes that the Raiders have behind him. It is my prediction that he will be relegated to a mentor role or be cut within the next few weeks, barring a crippling injury to an Oakland starter. For the Chargers, I am on a warpath trading for any Charger I can get on the cheap. Now that the bye is over and Rivers and V-Jax have both had their worst games of the season, it’s time for the Bolts to turn on.
Packers–Vikings
Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot of analysis here. As already established, not starting any Packer is done at your own risk; they’re as likely to score five touchdowns as most offenses are to score two. For the Vikings, they actually played far better than the final score showed. Christian Ponder is going to be a great sleeper quarterback next year with his running ability. As we’ve all seen with Tim Tebow, just a little bit of running ability adds up to big fantasy points. Ponder has Peterson behind him, so he won’t be the goal-line choice like Tebow, but his passing proficiency is far superior. Look for the NFC North to have four great quarterbacks next year.
P.S. Remember when all the great teams played in the AFC?
And that’s it! Week 10 is in the books. Next week, fantasy owners are going to have a rough time playing without their Saints, Steelers, and Texans. Look for Oakland, Buffalo, Miami, and Cincinnati players to be great bye-week fill-ins.
By: Dave Stringer — November 11, 2011 @ 6:19 pm
 Best backup RB in the league. 1. If there was any doubt who is the best backup running back in the league, the Raiders Michael Bush put those doubts to bed with his performance Thursday night against the Chargers. With Darren McFadden out of the line up, Bush ran roughshod over a solid Chargers run defense, gaining 157 yards on 30 carries and catching three passes for another 85 yards, allowing Oakland to win the time of possession battle and ultimately prevail over the Chargers in a key road game against a division rival. His 242 total yards were the fourth highest ever by a Raider and the most since Bo Jackson gained 235 yards against the Seahawks in a 1987 contest – many of you may remember that game. Bush has now topped 100 total yards in three straight games, gaining 482 yards and two touchdowns over that stretch. Dynasty leaguers should take note of his contract status with Bush having signed a one-year deal to remain in Oakland, allowing him to test the free agent waters in 2012. While the Raiders would clearly love to re-sign Bush, look for another team to offer him a starting role (and commensurate salary) and for this to be his last season in Oakland.
2. Sticking with the Raiders, the perplexing situation of wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey continued last night. After coming off the best four game stretch of his career (22 receptions for 385 yards and a touchdown), he barely played in a Week 8 loss to the Broncos, getting targeted only once. That carried over to last night’s game with DHB not receiving a single target despite Jacoby Ford getting injured and not returning. Consider DHB waiver wire fodder until the Raiders bring some clarity to why he has suddenly become persona non grata in the team’s offensive game plan.
3. The Seahawks made a big splash in free agency, signing tight end Zach Miller away from the Raiders despite the presence of 2009 1st round pick John Carlson. With more speed than Carlson and having averaged 61 receptions for 756 yards and three touchdowns over his past three seasons, Miller was expected to provide Seattle with a tight end capable of splitting the safeties and making some big plays in the passing game. However, even with Carlson suffering a torn labrum that caused him to be placed on injured reserve in the preseason, Miller has been a non-factor in the Seattle passing game, hardly justifying the five-year, $34-million ($17-million guaranteed) he received in the offseason. He has been targeted just 20 times, catching 11 passes for 99 yards and failing to find the end zone. With Miller spending most of his time blocking, backups Anthony McCoy and Cameron Morrah have combined to have more targets than Miller. Signing Miller to such a large contract and using him as little more than a blocker is another in a growing list of questionable decisions made by Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.
4. Eight games into the 2011 season, it is safe to conclude that the Eagles grand plan to utilize three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks has backfired badly and it is not just because of the performance of those players. Free agent signee Nnamdi Asomugha has regressed badly from his play a season ago in Oakland, giving up big plays to journeyman receivers such as the Bears’ Earl Bennett and Victor Cruz of the Giants. Fellow starter Asante Samuel has played reasonably well but has not come up with the big plays that have been a hallmark of his career. He is on pace to finish the season with just two interceptions, an unjustifiably low number considering the Eagles pass rush has been solid for most games this season. Meanwhile, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has often been forced to line up in the slot and he has struggled badly in that role. His incredible closing speed is wasted in that role and he lacks the short area quickness to be effective playing out of the slot. In addition, the salary cap space used on the Eagles cornerbacks resulted in the team having to use inexperienced players in the starting line up at linebacker and caused a severe lack of depth along the offensive line, two areas that have struggled this season.
5. Bengals rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has had an amazing start to his career, catching 40 passes for 599 yards and five touchdowns eight games into the season. The fourth pick in the rookie draft has made a smooth transition to the pro game, displaying his speed and athleticism in almost every game he has played save for Week 1 where his lone reception went for a 43-yard touchdown on a busted play where he was uncovered. Green’s owners may want to take note of Cincinnati’s upcoming schedule which features five consecutive games against pass defenses ranked in the top five (Ravens, Browns, Texans and the Steelers twice). Although Green is clearly destined to be a top five wide receiver for several years, rookies often hit the wall around the 10-game mark and with a difficult schedule on the horizon, his owners may want to temper their expectations over the next few weeks.
6. Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson has always been a boom or bust player but he’s testing the patience of his fantasy owners even more than usual in 2011, particularly over the last three weeks. In games against the Redskins, Cowboys and Bears, Jackson has been a relative non-factor, catching eight passes for 93 yards and no touchdowns despite being targeted 20 times. With Philadelphia’s offensive line struggling and opposing defenses playing plenty of soft coverages, the coaching staff has used more screens, checkdowns and intermediate patterns in the middle of the field in recent weeks. Jackson has always been more of downfield threat (witness his career yards per reception average of 18.1) but opposing defenses are more determined to force the Eagles to march down the field methodically rather than allowing big plays to Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Since Maclin is more inclined to go over the middle than the frequently alligator-armed Jackson, he is the Eagles wide receiver to own for fantasy purposes.
7. There has been some silly talk lately about how Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is the league MVP based on HIS NOT PLAYING and the Colts failing to win a game thus far in 2011. While Manning’s absence is a large part of the reason for the team’s poor record, a look at their drafts over the last five years provides another large clue as to why they are winless. The team has failed to hit on many players taken in the later rounds and their 1st and 2nd round picks have fared very poorly. Players taken in those rounds since 2007 that have failed to live up to expectations include Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, Donald Brown, Fili Moala and Jerry Hughes.
By: Dave Stringer — November 8, 2011 @ 3:26 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
 Is Rivers ready to roll? Philip Rivers, Chargers
Rivers struggles in 2011 have been well documented so let’s not spend time rehashing that. However, as I noted in my Dave’s Take column on Friday, the Chargers have been a great second half team with Rivers at the helm and sure enough he and wide receiver Vincent Jackson were in fine form this week against the Packers in a high scoring affair (NFL and fantasy football style). Rivers threw for season highs in yards (385) and touchdowns (four), on his way to his best fantasy performance of the season (35.2 points). Up next are the Raiders (25th ranked pass defense), Bears (27th) and Broncos (19th).
Moving Down
Colt McCoy, Browns
Over the first five games of the season, McCoy looked comfortable leading the Browns attack with a touchdown pass in every game and three games with two touchdown passes while averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. At that point, he certainly appeared on the verge of cementing his status as Cleveland’s starting quarterback for years to come. Since then, the wheels have come off. Over his last three games, McCoy has passed for 565 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions, averaging 14.3 points per game. The recent stretch has caused him to plummet to the 26th overall fantasy ranking at quarterback, making him officially worthy of being dropped.
Curtis Painter, Colts
Hmmm. Do you think defenses have figured Painter out? The Colts third year signal caller raised hopes with a pair of decent starts against the Bucs and Chiefs where he averaged 279 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game. Since then, it’s been mostly downhill sledding. Over his last four games, Painter has two sub-100 yard passing performances, just one touchdown pass, five picks and is averaging 151 yards per game. Yuck.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Roy Helu, Redskins
Let’s face it – if you didn’t think Helu was going to get a chance in the Redskins backfield, then you’re likely in elementary school. The only issue is that his owners were salivating at the prospect early in the season with the Redskins offense rolling and now they might just be the league’s worst due to their numerous injuries. Let’s just say I’m a lot less excited by Helu’s presence in the starting line up than I thought I would be (yes, I own him). Let’s assume Helu starts for the rest of the season (a big if). What’s the over/under on how many touchdowns he scores? Two? Three? Yeah, he’s worth grabbing (especially in dynasty leagues) but keep your expectations in check. With Helu grabbing 14 passes this week and the Redskins figuring to be playing from behind plenty over the second half of the season, I like him a lot more in PPR leagues.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
With Daniel Thomas back in the lineup, the odds seemed pretty strong that Bush would once again be relegated to more of a backup role this week against the Chiefs despite his strong Week 8 performance against the Giants where he had 15 carries for 103 yards and added another 17 yards on four receptions. However, even though the Dolphins staked out a big early lead, a situation that would seem to call for the bigger back get more work, Bush stayed in the game, producing 92 yards and a score on 13 carries and adding three receptions for 50 yards. It’s anybody’s guess as to who will get the playing time in any given week in the Dolphins backfield but it would seem hard for the team’s coaches to ignore Bush’s solid performance over the past two weeks.
Frank Gore, 49ers
Five straight 100-yard rushing performances. Touchdowns in four of his last five games. Plays for a team that’s winning by pounding the ball on the ground. Suffered an ankle sprain this week. Three out of four ain’t bad.
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
As my momma taught me, give credit where credit is due. And so I begrudgingly have Lynch Moving Up this week. Do I own him? No. Do I like him much? No. Has he scored touchdowns in four straight games? Yes. Does he have double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games? Yes. After this week’s game against the Ravens, do the Seahawks face another run defense ranked better than 10th? No. Lynch is Moving Up, I just puked in my mouth and I hope you’re all happy.
Moving Down
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Can you say enigma? If there’s a word to describe Wells, this is it. Minor injury, out. Stud against great defenses. Ridiculously bad against bad defenses. Despite not being expected to play last week against the Ravens due to a knee injury, Wells was a go and ran the ball 22 times for 83 yards and a score against the league’s third rated run defense. With the Rams on tap in a tantalizing matchup, Wells went flat, gaining 20 yards on ten carries. Maybe even worse is that he suffered a neck stinger in the fourth quarter. If he won’t play with a hang nail, he’s certainly not going to play after suffering a neck stinger.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
So bad that the Broncos would rather start a pedestrian 30-year-old with a broken hand rather than him. If anybody in Denver knows a good realtor, Knowshon could use your help.
Joseph Addai, Colts
In Week 8, Addai dressed but didn’t play. In Week 9, Addai dressed but didn’t play. My wife tells me I can be a little slow on the up take at times but I do sense a trend here.
Delone Carter, Colts
Carter did play in Week 9, it’s just that he fumbled on the Colts first series and was benched for his efforts. Donald Brown stepped in and looked decent. Carter may get the start next week, or he may not. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether it’s going to be Carter, Brown or Addai in the starting line-up.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Earl Bennett, Bears
Roy Williams has been horrible (witness his horrendous drop on a deep ball on Monday night against the Eagles). Devin Hester suffered an ankle injury this week and has been almost as bad as Williams. And it seems like the Bears coaching staff is doing everything in their power to keep Johnny Knox from getting consistent playing time. Enter Bennett. In his first game after suffering a chest injury in Week 2, Bennett carved up the Eagles, catching all five of his targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. All that plus the knowledge that quarterback Jay Cutler loves throwing to his former college teammate.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Moving Up last week and Moving Up once again this week courtesy of Miles Austin’s injured hamstring, an injury that may keep him out for weeks. Despite being released by the Chargers in the preseason and then signed, released and re-signed by the Cowboys and not playing until Week 3, Robinson is the 44th ranked fantasy wide receiver and sits at 28th in average points per game. This week, he caught all five of his targets for 32 yards and a score.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Vjax owners were having their patience tested this season with the Chargers top wide receiver posting just a pair of double-digit fantasy performances over his first seven games. There were a few ugly stat lines in there (think two for 31, three for 34, one for 15) but his owners were rewarded this week with a seven reception, 141-yard, three touchdown performance against the Packers. With defenses often double teaming tight end Antonio Gates, Jackson just might be ready to explode in the second half of the season.
Josh Cribbs, Browns
Yeah, I know, it’s hard to trust Cribbs but the numbers don’t lie. He’s had at least three targets in every game, is averaging 4.9 targets per game and we know what he can do with the ball in his hands. Over the last two games, he’s caught seven passes for 106 yards and a pair of scores. With Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty likely out at running back next week and Chris Ogbonnaya flopping badly in his first career start this week against the Texans, the Browns figure to use Cribbs a decent amount next week against the Rams and their pathetic defense.
Lavelle Hawkins, Titans
With Nate Washington going down with a hip injury, Hawkins stepped into the Titans receiving fray and posted a solid game with five receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. Interestingly enough, I checked his FFToday players page and this dude is averaging 5.7 targets over his last seven games. Who knew? And who knows how long Washington will be out but I’m guessing a hip injury isn’t a good thing for a wide receiver. Up next are the Panthers and their 14th ranked passing defense followed by the Falcons (24th), Bucs (26th), Bills (24th), Saints (11th), Colts (22nd) and the Jaguars (8th) in Week 16. If quarterback Matt Hasselbeck can stay upright and Washington’s hip is problematic, Hawkins might be a decent option in larger leagues.
Moving Down
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Raiders head coach Hue Jackson questioned his team’s smarts after they took 15 penalties for 130 yards during this week’s 38-24 home loss to the Broncos. Raiders fans questioned head coach Hue Jackson after he failed to use Heyward-Bey (one target, no catches) despite the 2009 1st round pick coming off the best stretch of his career (22 receptions, 385 yards and a score over his last four games). So, who’s dumber? Hue or the Raiders? Or is that a trick question…
Mike Williams, Bucs
Somebody in Tampa, please let the team’s coaching staff know that Williams isn’t the same player he was last season. Touchdowns: on pace for 2, down from the 11 he posted in his rookie season. Yards: on pace for 726, down from the 955 he posted a year ago. Targets: on pace for 142, up from the 128 he had in 2010. Yards per catch: down from 14.9 last season to 9.8 this season. This situation has me more confused than Elmer Fudd.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Jacob Tamme, Colts
If my memory serves, those who jumped on Tamme immediately after Dallas Clark suffered a season-ending injury in 2010 were rewarded. With Clark suffering a potentially season ending leg injury this week, could history be repeating itself? Nah. Peyton Manning is out and Curtis Painter’s been horrible so Tamme has almost no chance of replicating his solid performance from last season when he accounted for 67 receptions, 631 yards and four touchdowns. Still, he’s worth grabbing as your TE2 if you don’t like your current option.
Moving Down
Ben Watson, Browns
I needed an option to have Moving Down at tight end and Watson is what I came up with. At first glance, his performance this season hasn’t been far off what he did last season (5.9 PPG vs. 5.3) but he’s stumbled over the past four weeks, coincidentally struggling along with McCoy. Watson caught nine passes for 130 yards over that span and it also doesn’t help that he’s been targeted just nine times over the past three weeks. Let’s just say that’s it’s hard to be a productive fantasy tight end in a struggling offense when you’re averaging three targets a game.
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