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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Aaron Williams — November 8, 2011 @ 10:18 am
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! In what should have been a week of clarity, most situations became only muddier as backups performed with skill, starters sat on the bench in pain or humiliation, and the number of winless teams fell to one. How ‘bout them Dolphins?
Falcons–Colts
Beware of the offense that faces this floundering Colts team. The Julio Jones– Matt Ryan connection blew up for over a hundred yards and multiple scores this week, despite showing little in any week prior. A couple of weeks ago, anyone who owned Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham likely won their game, even if they sat everyone else. I wouldn’t start any Colts, and I would start most backups versus Indy.
P.S. What if the Colts allow Peyton Manning to play just enough games to keep them out of the Luck sweepstakes? Wouldn’t that be fitting for the team who sat their starters when staring down the barrel of a 16-0 season?
 Is the magic over? Jets–Bills
The magic of the high-flying Bills offense has started to fade as defenses have begun to settle in to the new rules. The Jets proved that they can tackle in form—rather than just take headshots—and that they can cover without touching the receiver past five yards. I’m a bit skittish to go all-in on the Jets after one game, but that defense looked as menacing as ever Sunday afternoon. I’m not too comfortable with any of the Jets offensive options, but I could easily see the choice between Flacco and Sanchez leaning toward Sanchez at this point in the season.
Browns–Texans
I weep for those of you who dropped Ben Tate when Arian Foster came back. Tate won’t run against Cleveland every week, but he does seem like a good bet to get 20 yards and a touchdown in most any matchup, and especially against the Gerald McCoy-less Bucs this week. I also weep for those of you who drafted Matt Schaub early this year. He’s found himself in a situation much like Ryan Fitzpatrick’s. This offense operates through the run game, despite having an excellent quarterback and No. 1 receiver.
Cowboys–Seahawks
As the year of the leg injury continues, Miles Austin went down for another 2-4 weeks with the same hamstring that has bothered him all season. This week the Cowboys play the bend-but-don’t-break Buffalo defense, and I could see Laurent Robinson getting 100 yards and a touchdown in Austin’s place. I am all-in on the Cowboys as they take on the Bills. For the Seahawks, I might start Sidney Rice as a flex play in some weeks, but I’m steering clear of any Seahawk in any league when they face the Ravens.
Dolphins–Chiefs
In their own effort to thwart their chances at landing Andrew Luck, the Dolphins went on the road and made the Chiefs think they were reliving Week 2. As I’ve documented on multiple occasions, I’m not a fan of big-talent guys on bad-attitude teams. However, Brandon Marshall’s talent is so transcendent that it’s impossible for me to feel iffy about him. I don’t know if this was the Chiefs D looking past Miami or if Matt Moore has actually become a viable starting quarterback, but I wouldn’t advise sitting Brandon Marshall unless you have a truly elite receiving corps.
Saints–Buccaneers
The curse about losing the Super Bowl when it’s in your own stadium may be legitimate, but New Orleans hosts the big game next year, and I believe the Saints now have the most dominant home-field advantage. It is loud, it is crazy, and you can almost see the Superdome becoming animated with trumpets just poking out of it at all times blasting swing music and jazz. Okay, that was a little overdone, but you get my point. Start your Saints when they’re at home, and start them at your own risk when they’re away. If you drafted any Buccaneers, all you can do is hang in there and hope they come alive in the second half.
P.S. Remember when everyone spoke of Josh Freeman as a running quarterback? While his two rushing touchdowns this year has infinitely increased from zero rushing touchdowns in 2010, the hope of his compiling Vick-like numbers is going to have to wait at least one more season.
In Other News…
As I told you a couple of weeks ago, I live in Oklahoma. I’m not sure if it made your local news, but tremors were felt all over the state on Saturday as three “major” earthquakes shook the ground. It was the real experience. Cups rattled, pictures fell from shelves, dogs and cats went crazy, the whole kit and caboodle. Instantly, Facebook and Twitter burst with statements harkening the end of days and the self-destruction of the planet. As if happenings in such prestigious towns as Prague and Meeker really have any sort of bearing on the status of the entire world! Did you hear about the quake in my home state?
49ers–Redskins
Speaking of big events for unassuming entities, the Niners went on the road and got their seventh straight victory. Could it really just have been that Mike “Can’t-Win-With-‘Em” Singletary just couldn’t win with them? With virtually the same team, Jim Harbaugh is looking at clinching his division in Week 11 and nabbing a first-round bye. I’m looking at Crabtree and Smith as bye-week fill-ins for Week 11, but after that, I’d be hard pressed to start them unless I were really in dire straits.
As for the Redskins, yours truly was a week too soon on Roy Helu. I feel like he is a better back than Ryan Torain, and I fell for the bait last week after Tim Hightower’s unfortunate injury sidelined him for the season. However, it was this week that Helu would come alive. . . well after I dropped him for the great Brandon Jacobs.
Giants–Patriots
Speaking of Big Blue, these Giants just have the Patriots’ number, don’t they? In the fourth quarter, as Jake Ballard and Mario Manningham brought the game to a close, this game drew a myriad of comparisons to Super Bowl XLII. The Patkowskis have gone from looking unshakable to pretty shaky in just a matter of weeks, but the offense keeps ticking. Brady, Welker, Gronkowski, and even Hernandez will continue to give great fantasy performances. However, when they play strong man-to-man defenses (Steelers, Giants, and now the Jets), they struggle and quite often lose. It’ll be tough to bench any New England stars, but I might consider other comparable options this week.
Bengals–Titans
Chris Johnson’s talent is such that even yours truly—who was ridiculed in the offseason for saying I wouldn’t take him with a third-round pick—would not have guessed he could go all year without a hundred-yard game. For God’s sake, even Jackie Battle has one of those this year! However, keep in mind that Battle is also currently edging CJ2K on the stat sheet as well. For the Bengals, as I have said previously, their arrow has started to tilt upward. If these guys are somehow able to split their next two games (Steelers, Ravens), their confidence will grow exponentially and Dalton may become a fantasy starter.
Broncos–Raiders
I can only imagine how Tebowing will grow in popularity after the Broncos’ big win in the black hole. I say we begin a “Palmering” fad, where we come in with inexplicably high expectations and are all let down. It might be a little harder to pull off, but all the more glorious when it becomes a national pastime, right? Anyway, Palmer emerged from the game with passable stats, while Tebow once again blew up the fantasy football gridiron. I’d have to have pretty strong quarterback options to not start Tebow week-in and week-out. Meanwhile, it’s my prediction that the Broncos win this division in a stunning turn of events: Palmer and Rivers combine for 100 interceptions, the Chiefs lose every remaining game by 20 points, and Tebow rushes for 22 touchdowns and throws for four more. Now that would surely spell the end of man.
P.S. Willis McGahee will finish the season with more than five points per game over CJ2K. That’s not even that crazy…
Packers–Chargers
My Super Bowl pick, the Chargers, are deeply entrenched in a three-way tie for first. The catch? Three AFC West teams are at .500, and fourth place is only a game back. Both teams played as they should have in this game, so there isn’t much fantasy advice here. However, the Chargers certainly had the most impressive day in the division as they went toe-to-toe with ironically red-hot Green Bay. Don’t these Packers remind you of the ’06 Saints? Great offense, hyper-elite quarterback, and a defense that can make just enough plays to ride the coattails of the offense to a win. Those Saints lost in the NFC Championship game to the Chicago Bears; can these Packers make it back to the Super Bowl?
Rams–Cardinals
Here are three names for you: Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Beanie Wells. Start these men, close your eyes, and check the box score at the end. Skip the rest. Let’s move on…
P.S. I was on record saying that the Panthers should’ve drafted Patrick Peterson and given Jimmy Clausen another shot. Obviously, the Panthers made a great decision, but Peterson again proved his worth in this game.
Ravens–Steelers
Somehow, the Ravens have emerged from a four-game stretch that included a loss to Jacksonville and a come-from-behind win in Arizona as world-beaters. The Blackbirds marched into Heinz field and handed the Steelers an “L”. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin were more successful than I imagined, and Joe Flacco blew up the waiver wire, where yours truly left him last week. For the Steelers, I’m really starting to come on to Antonio Brown. It seems plausible that the combination of Wallace, Sanders, and Brown may very soon become the best receiving corps that Pittsburgh has ever had.
Croooooooooow!
Last week, Dot Miltrix commented on my statement that the Steelers were going to roll the Ravens:
“I hope I’m playing you next week in fantasy—you may get one TD out of all of your Steelers.”
While the Steelers technically scored two offensive touchdowns, the overall point still stands. In a week where series records were broken all over, the Ravens swept the Steelers in the regular season for the first time since 2006. I’ll own this one; I had more faith in a rejuvenated Steelers team off that great win than they apparently deserved.
P.S. How about Harbaugh 1.0 quoting Teddy Roosevelt? That was awesome.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On pregame expectations for the Ravens–Steelers game:
“This game could only get better if these defenses got to play against one another.”
Au Contraire! The defenses were great, particularly the despicable James Harrison, but the offenses made this game a thriller. However, if there were ever a paradoxical double-defense matchup I’d want to see, it would be between these guys. Ray Lewis pump fakes and passes short over the middle to Ed Reed who takes a hard hit from Ryan Clark! What???
Bears–Eagles
This was the best game Jay Cutler has ever played. Sure, he’s put up better stats, but he had the game of his career as far as I’m concerned. He extended plays like the best of them, he was accurate, he was decisive, and his throws were perfect. The drive at the top of the fourth quarter was momentous, capped off with a beautiful pass to Earl Bennett. The Bears’ offensive stars will likely have to sustain some passing potency if they have any hope of staying close to the Packers and getting a wild card spot.
For the Eagles, it was as normal. LeSean McCoy was huge, Vick continued to develop as a passer, and Maclin and Jackson remained unimpressive in comparison to years past. Some of that had to do with the Bears effectively shutting down the deep ball with their Cover 2, but the Eagles passing game hasn’t been itself all year long. In fact, it was sloppy passing and receiving that sealed the deal on the Eagles’ hopes for a win.
P.S. How about the Eagles pass rush getting 0.0 sacks on Jay Cutler? When did the Bears O-line become their strength?
And that’s it! Another action-packed week of NFL play is in the books. There are no byes this week, so with any luck your team will be back to full power. If you’re hurting bad because of injuries, you might consider some of the Vikings as they face a Green Bay D that isn’t scaring anyone right now.
By: Doug Orth — November 6, 2011 @ 1:43 am
In 2010, there were 25 NFL running backs that logged at
least 100 carries and played in all 16 games. In 2009, the number was 19.
This year, let’s hope you kept your rabbit’s foot alongside
your four-leaf clover and threw some salt over your shoulder while avoiding
black cats and remembering not to walk under ladders…
In 2011, the numbers are sobering. Since the season is
nearly half over, I’ll set the bar at 50 carries. By my count, only 30 runners
have surpassed that low benchmark so far. Of those 30 players, only 18 can be
considered decent (or better) regular fantasy starts – and that’s only if you
classify the likes of Chris Johnson, James Starks, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and
Jackie Battle as “decent” this season.
Taken one step further, I count only 14 of those 18 as
runners who have yet to miss a game and/or not projected to sit out this week
(which includes Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews and Ahmad Bradshaw).
Among the more intriguing bits of information are the names
of some of the players who have survived the carnage so far: Maurice Jones-Drew
(entered season with knee concerns), Frank Gore (missed at least one game in
five of first six NFL seasons), Shonn Greene (yet to play a full season) and
Starks (missed most of 2009 and 2010 seasons due to injury).
Assuming Mathews (who hasn’t played a full football season
since high school and has suffered five known injuries already this season)
beats the odds and finds a way to play through his groin injury in Week 9 –
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune tweeted that he “had a
feeling” he would – he only adds to bizarre list of this season’s
“durable” runners.
With running back depth charts around the NFL already
looking like something out of a horror movie, I decided it was about time to
take a look at the “new wave”. For the purposes of this blog, I’m not
interested in singing the praises of a high-profile second-stringer who is about
to step into the starting lineup, I’m more interested in writing about the
talented third- and fourth-stringers that may end up deciding fantasy
championships this season if this injury wave doesn’t stop.
In no particular order…
Tashard Choice – Perhaps I’m a fool for Mike Shanahan
running backs, but unlike the other RBs on this list, Choice has already shown
a little bit in the league – albeit not much recently. However, unlike the
situation in which he found himself with the Cowboys, Choice may now be able to
show fantasy owners the skills that made him one of the best backup RBs in the
league just two years ago. With a change of scenery, more devotion to the
running game and a chance to rest his nagging injuries, Choice is as good of
bet as any to emerge as the Redskins’ lead RB by the time the fantasy playoffs
roll around.
Taiwan Jones – If the rookie from Eastern Washington wasn’t
buried behind one of the league’s premier backs (McFadden) and one of its
finest second-stringers (Michael Bush), there is a pretty good chance you would
know Jones by now. Perhaps Oakland’s plan of resting McFadden for Week 9 allows
him to play in Week 10 (a Thursday night game vs. the Chargers), but D-Mac’s
return for that game is far from guaranteed, which means Jones could have a
shot at fantasy value for two games. With his speed and playmaking ability, he
may not need more than 8-10 touches in either game to have a fantasy impact for
desperate owners.
Chris Ogbannaya – Peyton Hillis aggravated his hamstring
(again) and is likely to miss multiple weeks while Montario Hardesty is on the
same timetable with a calf injury, which means Ogbannaya is already assured a
starting job for the next week or two. Ogbannaya, who did some good things with
the Texans in the preseason, struggled in his first real shot at significant
touches in Week 8. However, as long as he is only fighting off the likes of
Thomas Clayton, Ogbannaya will have a shot at 15-20 touches and will be a
usable bye-week fill-in/desperation start in PPR leagues because the Browns
lack playmakers in the passing game but rank among the league leaders in pass
attempts.
Kregg Lumpkin – There’s a pretty good chance Lumpkin is
already rostered in deeper leagues. HC Raheem Morris is talking up LeGarrette
Blount as an every-down back in the wake of Earnest Graham’s season-ending
injury, but I can’t imagine how that experiment will work out well for the
Bucs. First and foremost, when Blount returns to the field in Week 9, it will
be for the first time he’s played in nearly a month, so conditioning will be an
issue. Secondly, Blount isn’t the most able or willing in blitz pick-up nor is
he an accomplished receiver, so defenses like the Saints will be even apt to
load the box and blitz more than they already do. Last but not least, I have my
doubts about Blount’s ability to avoid another injury.
Curtis Brinkley – The Chargers’ running-back rotation of
Mathews and Mike Tolbert takes turns getting hurt, which means owners of either
one or both players really need to consider keeping tabs on Brinkley. While he
is hardly a threat to either player and is clearly a backup, PPR owners
undoubtedly took note at what Brinkley was able to do following Mathews’
departure in the Monday night loss to the Chiefs. Should Mathews and/or Tolbert
both miss games at the same time, Brinkley would quickly become a temporary RB2
in PPR since San Diego utilizes its backs so often in the passing game. With
bye weeks mercifully coming to an end, I would strongly advise owners of
Mathews and/or Tolbert to find room for Brinkley.
Phillip Tanner – I briefly discussed Tanner in the Blitz
last week, so suffice it to say that his opportunity to shine on the likelihood
that DeMarco Murray cannot stay healthy and Felix Jones continues being
“fragile”. Since both Murray and Jones are huge injury question
marks, it is not a stretch to think that Tanner won’t get an opportunity as the
featured back for a 1-2 game stretch. There’s also a pretty good chance Tanner
never gets that shot, but Dallas should consider using him in a goal-line role
and make sure it reduces its risk of burdening any of its runners by making
sure it uses all of them.
Da’Rel Scott – Even by the standards of this blog, Scott is
a complete shot in the dark for any modicum of fantasy value this season.
However, his chances just increased this week with Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot
injury. Coming off his own injury, Brandon Jacobs is talking and playing his
way out of New York and D.J. Ware has essentially been pigeonholed into a
third-down back role. The one thing Scott has is what Bradshaw brings to the
table and the other two do not – speed. Like Bradshaw, Scott enters the league
as a talented but injury-prone enigma. Either way, it would not surprise me if
Scott got his first real chance vs. New England today and makes the most of it.
By: Dave Stringer — November 4, 2011 @ 2:41 pm
 A good buy-low candidate. 1. With the trading deadlines for most fantasy football leagues just around the corner, the Rams Steven Jackson picked a fine time to notch his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season, also ending a nine-game drought in which he had been held below 100 yards. Jackson’s performance has been underwhelming for the early part of 2011, as the Rams have faced a grueling schedule and he missed most of two games with a thigh injury. However, the Rams schedule gets decidedly easier over the next eight weeks with the Seahawks and Cardinals on tap twice as well as games against the 49ers, Bengals, Browns and Steelers. If you’re looking for a mid-tier, reasonably low cost option at running back, SJax just might be your guy.
2. While Patriots quarterback Tom Brady remains on track to eclipse Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season, his performance over the last four weeks seems to indicate that possibility is getting more remote as the season progresses. After averaging 332 passing yards over his first three games, the Patriots passing attack has come back to the pack over the last four weeks with Brady averaging a 259 yards per game. This week against the Steelers, he was held to a season-low 198 yards, his lowest passing yardage total since a Week 16 blowout win over the Bills in 2010. Opposing defenses have clamped down on wide receiver Wes Welker over the past two weeks. Look for that trend to continue until the Patriots find a way to exploit single coverage with their other receivers.
3. 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been a major disappointment over most of his two and a half year career in San Francisco but may be ready to finally make good on the promise he showed coming out of Texas Tech. He notched his first touchdown reception of the season this week against the Browns and finally seems to have found a rapport with quarterback Alex Smith. Smith has been reluctant to throw to Crabtree courtesy of his several drops, many of which led to interceptions, over the last year and a half. However, he has targeted Crabtree 24 times over the past two games, connecting 14 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. While Crabtree is unlikely to ever match the expectations he had placed upon him coming out of college, he shapes up as a solid WR3 over the remainder of 2011.
4. Sticking with the 49ers, here’s a tip of the cap to head coach Jim Harbaugh for his imaginative play calling this week in San Francisco’s 20-10 home win over Cleveland. In the first quarter, Harbaugh had starting left tackle Joe Staley report as an eligible receiver and Staley gained 17-yards on a catch and run play. Then in the fourth quarter, defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga reported as an eligible receiver, gaining 18 yards. Staley and Sopoaga accounted for 26 yards after the catch displaying as much playmaking ability as the Browns receivers did in Week 8.
5. With Philadelphia’s win over Dallas, Eagles head coach Andy Reid has now won 13 consecutive games after his team’s byes. The Eagles clearly had a superior game plan than Dallas, both on offense and defense, proving yet again that Reid is a great game planner when given additional time to find his opponent’s weaknesses.
6. Saints quarterback Drew Brees had a garbage time touchdown pass with six seconds remaining this week against the Rams, keeping his streak of consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass alive at 35 games. If Brees throws a touchdown pass this week against the Bucs, he will move into a tie for second place on that list. Johnny Unitas has the record for most consecutive games with at least one touchdown at 47 games.
7. If you hitched your fantasy wagon to the Chargers quarterback-wide receiver combo of Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, odds are you are scrapping to make the playoffs. However, as any Chargers fan or astute NFL fan knows, San Diego has been a second half surge team for the past several seasons and that will need to be the case once again if the team is to reach the postseason. Over the past three years, the Chargers have a record of 21-5 over the final two months of the season (three if you count January). Up next for San Diego are the 7-0 Packers who feature the league’s 31st worst pass defense, which is at least partly attributable to Green Bay getting big early leads in several games this season. However, that recipe bodes well for fantasy success this week for Rivers and Jackson. Between this week and Week 16, the Chargers face five pass defenses ranked 19th or worse, making Rivers and Jackson great buy low candidates.
8. How bad have the Rams been over the last few years? When safety Darian Stewart intercepted his first NFL pass and returned it 27 yards for a touchdown, it was the team’s first defensive touchdown since Game 6 of the 2009 season.
9. How bad have the Rams been this year? When they took a 3-0 lead this week over New Orleans, it marked their third lead of the season.
10. While the Raiders recent signing of free agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh was greeted with a collective yawn from fantasy football owners, look for him to earn enough looks to render one of Jacoby Ford or Denarius Moore irrelevant in the Oakland offense. Since his Week 2 breakout game over the Bills, Moore has caught just nine passes over his last five games for 66 yards and a touchdown, despite averaging 5.2 targets per game. With Moore playing out wide, Ford has been relegated to the slot and has just 11 receptions for 114 yards in four games. Houshmandzadeh isn’t worth owning but his presence makes Moore and Ford not worth owning either, except in dynasty leagues.
11. In the oddball statistic category, we present the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were left for dead after being outscored 89-10 over the first two games, losses to the Bills and Lions. Of course, at the midway point of the season, those teams appear to be much stronger than was expected entering the season. Since then, Kansas City has outscored their opponents 118-81 over their last five games, going 4-1. Add it all up and the Chiefs now sit atop the AFC West, ahead of San Diego and Oakland by virtue of tiebreakers, despite having a negative point differential of 42. Oh yeah, the Chiefs ranked 20th or lower in passing offense, passing defense and run defense.
By: Dave Stringer — November 1, 2011 @ 4:57 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Big Ben is back on track in Pittsburgh and put up perhaps his finest game of the season this week at home against New England. He threw 50 passes, completing 36 for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 pick. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 25.7 points per game and that is with a subpar stat line in a Week 6 win over Jacksonville when the Steelers went ultraconservative (23 pass attempts). Consider Roethlisberger just outside the top tier of quarterbacks for the remainder of 2011.
Moving Down
Tim Tebow, Broncos
Tebow was Moving Up last week but I did qualify by pointing out that my opinion of him as an NFL starting quarterback was pretty low. If that sounds like a whole lot of excuse making, that’s because it is. In two starts this season, Tebow has been horrible for 115 of 120 minutes. Five solid minutes in two games does not make you a QB1. If Tebow keeps this up, Broncos management will banish him to the bench first and to running back in 2012 and Denver’s fans will have nothing to say about it. If you’re looking for Vegas style odds, how about 3 to 1 to Tebow’s a running back next season.
John Beck, Redskins
Man, I was bad at quarterback last week. Beck was also Moving Up but at least this one’s not entirely on me. The Redskins offensive line was absolutely putrid this week, allowing nine sacks against a Bills defense that had generated just four sacks in their first six games. As mentioned in my Dave’s Take column on Friday, the Redskins have replaced or lost starters at five offensive positions since opening day. Beck threw 33 passes, was forced to run three times and took the nine sacks, hitting the turf 23 times. If that’s not an indictment of the team’s offensive line, then what is? Conclusion: it’s going to take a few weeks for the Shanahan boys to overcome the loss of so many offensive players from a team that lacked talent and playmakers on offense even when everyone is healthy.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Jackson has earned the title of RB1. Fred Jackson, Bills
Who would you rather start – Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte or Fred Jackson? At the start of the season, I don’t think anybody thought Jackson (or Forte for that matter) would be in that conversation but Jackson has morphed into a top five running back and there’s basically no reason why that should change over the remainder of the season.
Steven Jackson, Rams
With the Rams hoping for a prayer against the Saints this week, SJax (and the team’s defense) delivered big time, going for over 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 13 of last season. Jackson basically carried the offense in workhorse fashion, gaining 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries and catching four passes for 32 yards. With their horrendous early season schedule out of the way, the Rams now get their NFC West division rivals twice each in addition to Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh over their remaining nine games with San Francisco’s stingy run defense in Week 17. If that sounds yummy, that’s because it is.
Arian Foster, Texans
With 499 rushing yards, 310 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the last five weeks, looks like we can put those hammy issues to rest. This is a reminder to consider Foster a top five running back over the remainder of the schedule.
Javon Ringer, Titans
With Chris Johnson continuing to struggle, the Titans ramped up Ringer’s use for the first time this season. In a 27-10 win over the Colts, Ringer matched Johnson’s 14 rush attempts and caught five passes – two more than Johnson. The questions are whether the plan was to use Ringer more or whether the score dictated his extra use and what is the plan going forward? After the game head coach Mike Munchak stated that the Titans would ride the hot hand. There is no question that Ringer was more productive in Week 8, gaining 102 yards on his 19 touches compared to Johnson’s 51 yards on 17 touches. Don’t be surprised if Ringer ends up being the hot hand in Week 9.
Joseph Addai, Colts
Hopefully Addai owners didn’t start him this week based on the pregame reports of being active. While he dressed, he didn’t play and the plan was to only use him in an emergency situation. With another week of rest, Addai’s injured hamstring should be good to go in Week 9 against the Falcons. Neither Delone Carter nor Donald Brown did enough to claim the starting gig during Addai’s absence and it’s possible that they will both be relegated to pure backup status in a couple of weeks. Indy’s offense is a horror show but Addai was reasonably productive during the first four games of the year when he was healthy.
Moving Down
Ryan Torain, Redskins
On the positive side, Torain had eight carries this week to none for rookie Roy Helu. On the negative side, he gained just 14 yards, often getting hit in the backfield, and now has just 31 yards on 20 carries over three games since his big Week 4 against the Rams. While the performance of the offensive line is largely to blame, you can almost guarantee that head coach Mike Shanahan will turn to Helu in hopes of sparking his dormant offense which is averaging 11 points per game over the last three games and 16.6 points per game for the season.
Chris Johnson, Titans
See Javon Ringer above. Consider Johnson officially benchable.
Montario Hardesty, Browns
Hardesty is working hard to prove that the label he had coming out of college of being injury prone was bang on. Last year, he tore his ACL in training camp and he’s been nicked up this season and will likely miss time due to a moderate tear in his right calf. So, just when it looks like the Browns may have given up on Peyton Hillis and Hardesty’s got a chance to be the BMOC, he pulls up lame.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Robinson was Moving Up a couple of weeks back with the proviso that he was more of an option in deeper leagues considering that Dallas’ starting wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant seemed to be taking turns on the inactive list. It turns out that their being injured isn’t a prerequisite for Robinson to get a solid number of looks in the team’s offense. Granted it was in a blowout loss but Robinson had eight targets, catching five passes for 103 yards and a touchdown this week against the Eagles. And just as importantly, the guy has looked good when given an opportunity, catching 19 of 28 targets this season for 336 yards and a score.
James Jones, Packers
Jordy Nelson has cooled down after two solid fantasy performances to start the season and has now posted three duds in his last five outings. Meanwhile, after three duds to start the season, Jones has been catching everything in sight. Over his last four games, he has caught 13 of his 16 targets for 286 yards and three touchdowns. Right now, I would be more comfortable starting Jones than Nelson.
Anquan Boldin, Ravens
After posting just one double-digit fantasy point performance over the first four weeks of the season, it seemed Boldin was on the verge of becoming a low end WR3 in 2011. However, he has come on strong over the past three weeks and Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron may finally have figured out how to best utilize Boldin’s talents. Geez, only took a year and a half. With 33 targets, 19 receptions, 317 yards and a score over the past three games, Boldin may be ready to emerge from his Baltimore slumber to become the high-end WR2 most expected when he moved from the Cardinals to the Ravens.
Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
The Chiefs rookie 1st round pick made his first big contributions this week against the Chargers, getting targeted eight times and catching five balls for 82 yards, including a nice 39-yard touchdown reception. Better yet, while Baldwin didn’t start, he was on the field opposite Dwayne Bowe in almost all two receiver formations, relegating Steve Breaston to more of a third receiver role. With Bowe getting plenty of attention from opposing defenses and no threat at tight end, Baldwin may be useful of the second half of the season. His stat line would have looked even better had he not had a drop.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
With Hines Ward out, Brown stepped up for the Steelers against the Patriots this week, catching nine passes for 67 yards and his first touchdown of the season. The Patriots basically left the middle of the field wide open for much of the day and the Steelers took advantage of it, with Brown getting a whopping 15 targets. Ward figures to return from an ankle injury this week and Emmanuel Sanders actually started over Brown, but it is Brown who has been the team’s second most productive wide receiver behind Mike Wallace thus far in 2011. Just a note that I like Sanders better in dynasty leagues.
Moving Down
Santonio Holmes, Jets
Mea culpa. Should have had Holmes here last week courtesy of his two reception, 24-yard performance in Week 7 against the Chargers. He was supposed to be the Jets top threat at wide receiver this season, and while that may be the case, he hasn’t exactly been producing much and his three touchdowns have saved his fantasy performance from being truly abysmal. Why? He’s not seeing the ball. Taking away his games against the Cowboys and Ravens where he had 22 targets, Holmes averaged 3.8 targets per game in his five other starts. That’s not receptions, folks. Oh yeah, he hasn’t topped 70 receiving yards in a single game and has five games with less than 50 receiving yards. Add it all up and Holmes shapes up as a guy who needs to score a touchdown to be useful. Can you say bust?
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
The last time I had DJax Moving Down, he responded with a six reception, 171 yard performance against the 49ers and followed that up with a five reception, 86 yard, one touchdown performance against the Bills. Since then, defenses have clamped down on him once again and he has just six receptions for 77 yards over his last two games. Talented, yes. Ridiculously streaky, you bet.
Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
Consider the prospect of Marshall returning to top ten status at wide receiver officially dead. After a nice pair of games to start the season, Marshall has gone cold. He has been held under 62 receiving yards four out of the past five games and failed to score in all of those games. At this point, he is on pace to finish the season with two touchdowns, one less than the three he had last season. Basically, Marshall is being held back by poor quarterback play and a Dolphins offense that is averaging 13.1 points per game and has topped 20 points just once in 2011.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Brent Celek, Eagles
Celek has been a forgotten man in the Eagles passing attack for the past year and half but with defenses focused on shutting down wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin on the outside, Philadelphia has attacked the middle of the field over their past two games… and that’s been good news for Celek. He has been targeted nine times in each of the Eagles past two games, catching a touchdown in each contest with eleven receptions and 136 receiving yards over the two game span.
Moving Down
Jared Cook, Titans
Take away an 80-yard touchdown reception in Week 7 against the Browns and Cook is averaging a whopping 3.6 fantasy points per game. It certainly looks his fantasy owners should give up on the prospect of Cook having a breakout campaign. And with four targets over the past two weeks, it certainly looks like the Titans have too.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:43 am
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! At the halfway point of the season, it seems that the league is more muddied than clear. The Rams defeated the Saints, the Eagles beat the Cowboys, and the Ravens can barely hang with the worst of the league.
Cardinals – Ravens
If the Ravens could have 15 minutes back this season, I’m fairly certain it would be the second quarter of this game. They allowed a rush, a punt return, and a pass for a touchdown in that short period of time. Because of that quarter, criticism of Joe Flacco will continue to resonate through media and with fans in Baltimore, despite a 339-yard and one-interception day. Because Rice rushed for all of the touchdowns and because the Ravens defense couldn’t hold the Cardinals offense, Flacco will continue to be lambasted. That being said, this was probably the worst pass defense that the Ravens will play this year, and Flacco still had relatively unimpressive stats. I’m starting someone other than Flacco, including some scary options like Carson Palmer or Andy Dalton, for the rest of this year.
For the Cardinals, my favorite prospect from last year’s draft, Patrick Peterson, saw some highlight glory in the form of a return for a touchdown. The replay shows just a glimpse of the LSU alum’s great talent, but it firmly displays how amazing he can be. Watch for Peterson to make the Cardinal’s DST worth starting in years to come.
 The best running back in football. Vikings – Panthers
Speaking of hyper-talented Petersons, how about Adrian Peterson? We all know of his physical beastliness, but he continues to prove why he’s the best running back in the game. Count yours truly among the unsurprised if Christian Ponder rises to fantasy relevance by year’s end, thanks to the run-heavy defenses that the Vikings see on nearly every play. For the Panthers, newly enthroned football god Cam Newton continued to shine. There are exactly two Panthers worth starting in any given standard league: Newton and Steve Smith. It’s likely you have to start DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart if you drafted them, but I wouldn’t feel too good about it.
Jaguars – Texans
In what might have been the most boring game with playoff implications, the Texans defeated the Jaguars in Houston. Both defenses keyed on stopping the running backs, and in a pass-only game, the Texans were sure to win. Their offense has playmakers as potent as the Saints or the Packers, but the story is the same every week. As long as the big man, Andre Johnson, is out, that offense is missing the piece that can take them from good to great. Once Johnson returns, expect a week of rustiness and then that elite play-action deep bomb we’ve come to know and love.
Dolphins – Giants
I don’t understand putting coaches in lame-duck situations. Is there a chance that Tony Sparano is the coach next year? If not, let him go. Sparano desperately wants a win for his future resume, but the Dolphins should be looking to go 0-16 to bring in Andrew Luck. Why continue to allow a soon-to-be fired head coach to build game plans that are a conflict of interest with your organization? Dolphins ownership should thank goodness that they were able to pull the loss out in the end. In other news, one of my favorite unsung hero running backs, Steve Slaton, scored a touchdown this weekend. Hopefully he can prove himself enough to get a share of playing time somewhere.
For the Giants, it was business as usual: Do enough to get a win but don’t do anything that actually proves you’re a good team. Victor Cruz had another nice day and has proven to me that he’s worth rostering in every league. The Giants offense appears to have reasserted itself into fantasy relevance, but I wouldn’t touch their defense with a 10-foot pole.
Saints – Rams
The Saints cannot stand up to a punishing runner; it’s why the Falcons are such a matchup twice a year. New Orleans is a great team when they can pull opponents into a shootout, but when they get drawn into a “smashmouth” football game, they’re likely outmuscled (as with the Falcons, Texans, etc.). For the Rams, winning this game was a necessity. Of the teams in contention to draft Andrew Luck, the Rams are the only team for whom it would make no sense. Sam Bradford will be a phenomenal quarterback for them once (or if) the rest of the roster is in order.
P.S. Isn’t it terrible how Steven Jackson’s greatness has been lost in the quagmire of a miserable decade of Rams football? If he were on a great team, his popularity would know no bounds.
P.P.S. What’s with Jed Collins’ weird cereal-eating move?
Colts – Titans
What happened to Indy? A few weeks ago they were on Sunday Night Football determined to show that there were 52 other men on that roster who deserved NFL checks. Now it seems that these Indianapolis Colts, who consider themselves championship pedigree, are too good to lose with dignity. They’ve totally given up on this season and have checked out. Have they even considered that they’re possibly forcing Peyton Manning out by losing each week? For the Titans, Javon Ringer nearly doubled Chris Johnson’s output, as CJ2K continues to prove why holding out ruins your season. Sunday was a good look for the Titans DST, but I’m wary of forming any opinion on a team playing these Colts.
Bills – Redskins
The Buffalo Bills tied once again for first in the AFC East in a shutout against the lowly Washington Redskins. I went against instinct and tried to start a Shanahan-coached RB in Roy Helu and suffered greatly for it. There are no Redskins worth owning or starting. For the Bills, in addition to throwing off their jinx of losing in Toronto, they also won coming off their bye week, which has been a major issue for teams this year because of the new rules in the CBA. The Bills had an average day as far as fantasy points are concerned, though Scott Chandler continues to get points that used to belong to Steve Johnson.
Lions – Broncos
In what was a very interesting game on paper, the season’s two biggest fan sensations faced off in Mile High Stadium this week. Tim Tebow again completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes—for 172 yards and as many TDs (1) as INTs (1). And, again, he ran for a solid amount of yards but failed to get into the end zone on the ground. With no time in the pocket and no options, this mediocre-to-poor fantasy day and worse real-life result was about the best you could hope for from Tebow. However, I still maintain that with a year of starts and another offseason of practice, combined with a solid draft, Tebow could easily get this team 8-10 wins.
For the Lions, it was a day to get right. Stafford is hurt, Best is hurt, but Calvin Johnson is still the man. The Lions went on the road, got an easy win, and got their team amped up for next week’s bye and then a huge Week 10 matchup against the Bears at Soldier Field.
P.S. Pick up Titus Young. He’s a great bye-week fill-in.
Patriots – Steelers
In addition to some great football, this contained my favorite hyper-specific stat of the week. As Ben Roethlisberger took the field, Jim Nantz announced that the Steelers quarterback had compiled the first “ten touchdowns in one month since 1990.” Now, the stat was meant to show how great of a sergeant Roethlisberger has been this year, which cannot be overstated—though neither can the ridiculousness of such a hyper-specific stat.
The Steelers controlled this entire game and the contest was not nearly as close as the final score may appear. The Patriots have been a powerhouse all year, but they were simply out-muscled and intimidated by the Steelers defense on Heinz Field this Sunday. Case in point:
There was 11:10 remaining in the second quarter. The Patriots have the ball and have just started to really get going (they only hiked a few snaps in the first quarter). While Tom Brady is adjusting the play at the line, Polamalu sneaks up and screams something right into Logan Mankins’ face. The Steelers all-pro Safety then backs up for a second, surveys Brady’s adjustments, then quickly moves right back into Mankins’ face and Mankins jumps for a false start. This is why Polamalu and the Steelers D are the best at their game.
For the Steelers, Roethlisberger had more than 30 pass attempts in the first half alone. Watch for Rashard Mendenhall’s value to continue to sink and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders’ value to continue to rise. However, if I could trade Roethlisberger for a great RB or WR and start Ryan Fitzpatrick or Eli Manning, I would do it in a heartbeat.
Bengals – Seahawks
Alright, so I started this year screaming not to draft A.J. Green or Andy Dalton as fantasy options. The Bengals ownership and coaching staff are a mess, but the raw talent and drive of the young, talented players has started to shine through. My number two mantra in football is “don’t pick high talent guys on teams with their arrows pointing down.” At the beginning of the year, one could argue that no one’s arrow was pointing more downward than that of the Bengals. However, they’re now on a four-game tear and their arrow is obviously pointing up. That means start your Bengals, as momentum and attitude is swinging their way. The Seahawks are proof of the negative side of this philosophy, as they have talented players (Sidney Rice, Tavaris Jackson, Marshawn Lynch) that are doing nothing and are not worth owning in fantasy because they’re stuck in a bad system.
Browns – 49ers
I’m not certain on the fantasy relevance of any 49ers, as Frank Gore is an injury guarantee and their passing offense just hasn’t impressed me enough, but their arrow is also obviously pointing up now. The 49ers played just as they should have this week, and hopefully a lot of people won pick ‘ems (and maybe some cash in Vegas) on the nine-point spread these 49ers laid and still won. For the Browns, Montario Hardesty went down but Peyton Hillis should be back next week. For that reason, on top of the fact that the Browns are a terrible team, I would not pick up any other Cleveland running back—even if both Hillis and Hardesty are out next week.
Cowboys – Eagles
Nnamdi Asomugha and the Eagles D came in playing coverage tighter than Faith Hill’s leather biking suit. There were a few passes allowed to Jason Witten and one big play to Laurent Robinson that they would like to have back, but overall the defense looked very good against a Cowboys O that is no joke. DeMarco Murray didn’t get the amount of attempts that he would’ve liked coming off a huge performance last week, but when you get down three scores in the blink of an eye, there isn’t much time for the run game. Keep starting Murray; the Cowboys seemed committed to him early on.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
Chris on the Cowboys run defense:
“No offense to LeSean McCoy, but a lot of people could run through that hole!”
This week my favorite color commentator lent his great skill of overstatement to the domination of the Eagles over the Cowboys. LeSean McCoy went as DeMarco Murray for Halloween and absolutely gashed the bogusly ranked, No. 1 rush defense of the Cowboys. However, it was not McCoy’s talent alone, as our intrepid analyst so eloquently put it. The Eagles O-line looked as if Juan Castillo were still coaching them. The Cowboys came in expecting the deep pass and got picked apart by McCoy and Brent Celek. I’m not sure I believe in Celek’s resurrection, as Vick has never passed in high percentage to the tight end, but McCoy could very well end this year as fantasy’s top rusher.
P.S. Doesn’t Chris Collinsworth look like Will Arnett in 20 years?
Chargers – Chiefs
How ‘bout them Chiefs! Neither team looked very good Monday night, but the Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak. The Triple-B receiving corps hauled in Matt Cassel passes for nearly 200 yards combined, but they caught only one touchdown. Watch for these Kansas City receivers to catch at least two touchdowns next week as they host the miserable Dolphins. For the Chargers, it has to get better. It has been their bread and butter the past few years to get better as the season progresses, so I’m buying low on the San Diego starters that everyone else is bailing on. If you can get Rivers, Jackson, Mathews, or Tolbert for cheap, I say go for it. Watch for the Chargers to right their offensive woes against a weak Green Bay secondary next week.
And that’s it! I don’t know about you, but I’m in denial that the regular season is already halfway over. After the longest offseason in recent memory, this has seemed to be the fastest regular season so far. Watch next week for the Steelers to defeat the spiraling Ravens in Pittsburgh, as this series nearly always splits. Despite the reputation of the Steelers defense, I’m taking Pittsburgh in all pick ‘ems and I’m starting all my Steelers in all formats next week.
By: Dave Stringer — October 28, 2011 @ 3:16 pm
1. We have nearly hit the midseason mark so let’s go out on a limb here (not really) and proclaim Tennessee running back Chris Johnson as the biggest fantasy bust thus far in 2011. Johnson has been simply atrocious, helping to bolster two arguments often espoused by fantasy owners: don’t acquire players who are holding out and don’t acquire player who have just signed a lucrative, long-term contract. Johnson hit on both counts and maybe that’s why he’s not doing much on the field. In six games, Johnson has just 268 rushing yards, 143 receiving yards and a single touchdown while averaging 2.9 yards per carry. That’s not a typo, folks. And neither is this – his fantasy points per game average sits at 7.9, making him the 31st highest points producer at running back. If you put him ahead of a couple of players who have yet to have their byes, Johnson would rank 29th. That’s not even automatic start territory. The big plays just haven’t been there for Johnson in 2011. Or maybe he’s just not making the most of his opportunities. Either way, he’s been held under 54 rushing yards five times, topped 100 rushing yards once and had three games with less than 25 rushing yards.
2. Bears running back Matt Forte is having an outstanding, MVP caliber season and is the main reason that Chicago remains in the hunt for a wild card spot at 4-3. With 151 yards rushing and 39 receiving yards this week against the Buccaneers in London, Forte became the first player since 2004 to top 1,000 total yards in just seven games. Both Priest Holmes and Tiki Barber accomplished the feat that season.
3. The Cam Newton Show keeps on rolling in Carolina. This week, the Panthers defeated the Redskins 33-20 in a home game, lifting their record to 2-5. Newton added to his league leading quarterback rushing total, gaining 59 yards on the ground and scoring another touchdown, giving him seven on the season. That touchdown allowed Newton to tie the record for the most rushing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback. Here’s banking on Newton shattering that record by season’s end.
4. After looking decidedly mediocre and completely overhyped for the first five games of his NFL career, Cowboys rookie running back DeMarco Murray looked like the second coming of Jim Brown this week, running roughshod over a Rams defense that had more holes that swiss cheese. Murray finished the game with 25 carries for 253 yards and a touchdown, breaking both the Cowboys single game record for most rushing yards and accumulated the 9th best rushing performance in league history. After the game, Murray stated that he’d never expected to have “a game like this.” Suffice it to say that after his first five games, his fantasy owners didn’t either and many of them likely had him planted on the bench.
5. At the start of the season, the Redskins offense was playing surprisingly well with Rex Grossman at quarterback, Tim Hightower churning out decent production at running back, Santana Moss once again leading the wide receiver corps and a pair of talented tight ends in Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. What a difference a few weeks. In a key game this week against the Bills in Toronto, Washington will trot out John Beck at quarterback, Ryan Torain at running back, Davis at tight end and Jabar Gaffney as their top wide receiver. It also doesn’t help that the Redskins placed starting guard Kory Lichtensteiger on injured reserve a week ago. If you don’t see trouble ahead for Washington’s offense, take off the rose colored glasses. There is but one solid fantasy option in the Redskins offense and that is Davis, who is on the verge of becoming a top five fantasy producer at his position.
6. Sticking with the Redskins, don’t expect Cooley back in Washington for the 2012 season unless he accepts a massive pay reduction. Cooley will turn 30 prior to next season, has lingering knee problems and is due $3.8-million next season. Considering that he has been surpassed on the depth chart by Davis who is clearly an ascending player, Cooley will need to accept backup money to return to Washington in 2012.
7. Here’s a shout out to Vikings defensive end Brian Robison. After the Vikings 33-27 loss to division rival Green Bay, Robison tweeted that he was sorry for kicking Packers offensive lineman T.J. Lang in the groin, that he didn’t aim for the groin and that he is not a dirty player. Which begs a couple of questions. Where exactly was Robison aiming? Does Robison think that kicking is okay, provided it’s not in the groin? Here’s hoping NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell kicks Robison really hard somewhere – like say his bank account.
8. The Rams keep getting mentioned as a candidate to land the top overall pick in the draft and the opportunity to land Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. Of course, with Sam Bradford on the roster, a Luck selection by the Rams would be followed quickly with a trade of the Stanford star to another team. However, that scenario isn’t likely to happen. After this week’s game against New Orleans, the Rams play each of their NFC West rivals twice, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Presumably, the Dolphins and Colts are the front-runners in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes.
 Finley is lacking opportunities. 9. Owners of Jermichael Finley have, for the most part, been disappointed in the Packers tight ends fantasy performance in 2011. Expected to be a top five producer at his position with many pundits having him pegged as the second ranked tight end behind the Chargers Antonio Gates, Finley has just 25 receptions for 334 yards and four touchdowns this season, with 85 yards and three touchdowns coming in the Packers Week 3 win over the Bears. While the consensus has generally been that his performance will turn around, a look at the tight end stats tells us that Finley is the 17th most targeted tight end on a per game basis. As you read here all the time, opportunity is the first ingredient in production and Finley just isn’t getting much of either. Over the Packers last two games, Finley has been targeted just six times.
10. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz has been a boon to the team’s offense since taking over in the slot, producing a number of big games prior to his two reception, 12 yard performance in Week 6 against the Bills. In the three games prior to that, he had 17 receptions for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns and the assumption by most is that he had put a stranglehold on the slot receiver role for New York. However, 2009 3rd round pick Ramses Barden is eligible to come off the physically unable to perform list and there are rumblings out of New York that the team is anxious to see what he can do. Despite having solid size at 6’6” and 225 pounds, the team thinks Barden can produce out of the slot as well as on the outside spelling Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.
By: Aaron Williams — October 25, 2011 @ 10:48 pm
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! Each week, yours truly breaks down all of the weekend’s action from a fantasy perspective. Let’s get right into it.
Falcons–Lions
In classic Falcons fashion, they took what was working, broke it, rebuilt it, and almost lost because of it. Last week, I complimented the Falcons on being smart and giving more rush attempts to Turner than pass attempts to Ryan. This week, Ryan failed to dazzle as his 34 attempts turned into Tebow-esque passing numbers. We’ll get much more into Tebow later, but in the same fashion, Ryan was bailed out by a rushing touchdown on a quarterback keeper that was fueled by the mouths and actions of the Detroit front four. For Detroit, had they been able to get anything going in the fourth quarter, they could’ve steamrolled a Falcons team that only scored two touchdowns.
 Ryan got roughed up by the Lions. Sportsmanship
Rumors have been flying about Ndamukong Suh being a dirty player since his college days. On Sunday, you saw him unnecessarily shoving an offensive lineman who was fired up after an unnecessary shove of Matt Ryan by Corey Williams. Ah, there’s nothing quite like caveman-sized thugs acting like the brutes they are. This play also directly affected fantasy football, as I’m sure it was Ryan calling for the quarterback keeper to get back at the Lions’ D-line. Good for him; but I’m sure Michael Turner owners everywhere were even more furious than the average Falcons fan after that one.
Bears–Buccaneers
This week Matt Forte continued to make his case for a new paycheck as he ran all over the “home team” Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you consider homefield advantage to be relevant in deciding the fate of the game, doesn’t it seem unfair that someone has to call the London game a home game? Why not just allow both teams to count this matchup as an away game so that they get to take full advantage of their home stadium? I understand the Bucs are very popular among the Brits, but I still find one team giving up a home game in London to be ludicrous. Due to the extreme consequences of travel, I’m willing to give the Bucs one more pass on a terrible offense before I pronounce that 10-win offense of last year a one-year-wonder.
Seahawks–Browns
If this column relied upon superlatives, this game would take the “Most Irrelevant Game in Fantasy” award for 2011. Both of these teams are absolutely terrible and look to continue being so into the foreseeable future. However, both have played well enough to likely keep themselves out of reach of the much coveted Andrew Luck, who, for my money, will wear a Miami Dolphins jersey next year. Montario Hardesty emerged from the scrap heap with double-digit points in standard scoring formats, but he needed an ungodly amount of tries to get there. Look for these teams to be miserable for the rest of this season, and don’t plan on getting any sort of consistent fantasy points from a single player on either team.
Broncos–Dolphins
The Broncos eked out an overtime win on the road versus the worst team in football, in a game where the home team’s fans were all rooting for the road team. My, my, that’s impressive. The Broncos are another team that really needs to build through the draft. If they can come out of the 2012 draft with a first round-talent running back and a better offensive line, they may be able to reach 8-8 next year. For the Dolphins, it is Suck for Luck time. No other winless team needs a franchise quarterback as much as Miami, and their coach is a sitting duck. If Sparano gets fired, watch for an “interim” head coach and extremely conservative play calling for the remainder of the season.
Tebowmania
As I’ve stated in previous weeks, I’ve never before seen such blind clamoring for an unproven athlete as there has been for Tim Tebow. For fantasy, however, he’s a top-10 option every week regardless of opponent. He can throw for 150 yards and no touchdowns but rush for enough to have a fantastic fantasy day. One rushing touchdown (which for Tebow is a near lock each week) is worth 120 yards passing in standard scoring. Combine that with the other 40 yards rushing he’s likely to accumulate, and you have incredible value at the quarterback position. As a quarterback, Tebow has all the intangibles to be great but obviously lacks a lot of fundamentals and polish. However, if he can merely come close to Jake Delhomme’s passing ability and combine that with his own rushing skills, and if the Broncos can find a decent running back (a la DeAngelo Williams), who knows how far they can go next year under head coach John Fox.
Texans–Titans
I like to think that Arian Foster is paying back fantasy owners for the first five weeks of the season. No Texan has ever gone for 100 yards passing and 100 yards receiving in a single game, but Foster did just that against the Titans. These Texans are hurting without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, and they are one excellent Arian Foster performance away from a terrible outing. Until AJ gets back, I’m uncomfortable playing any Texan not named Foster. For the Titans, this felt like curtains to me. CJ2K is obviously not going to right this train this year. The question is, will he right the train next year, or is he doing his best Albert Haynesworth impression and giving up after getting paid?
Chargers–Jets
Many fantasy owners stared at Mike Tolbert and another flex-play RB (like James Starks) on their bench and pondered, “How much work is Tolbert really going to get?” If you’re like me, you probably chose the less talented RB who was going to have more touches than the Michael Turner-esque Tolbert. Also, if you’re like me, you were wrong. Tolbert will not always get the red-zone score, but he’ll always get the opportunity. The No. 2 running back for these Chargers, who love to run in the red zone, is worth more than many top dogs in timeshares across the league. For the Jets, their defense finally looked like they turned a corner, but I have to wonder how much of that was this silly San Diego team that refuses to allow opponents to look bad.
Redskins–Panthers
I have no faith in any offensive players on the Redskins outside of Fred Davis. There is a quarterback, a wide receiver, and a running back carousel in Washington right now, and that will continue to be the case under Mike Shanahan. I’m fighting my instinct to pick up Roy Helu. Helu projects as a great RB, but Shanahan takes some kind of deviant pleasure in ruining fantasy players’ weeks. For the Panthers, go Cam Newton, go! If defenses can’t shake off this lockout slumber, Newton may walk away with the rookie record for passing yards in a season.
Chiefs–Raiders
Well, Darren McFadden went down in the first quarter and the Raiders’ quarterbacks combined for 15 of 35 for 187 yards, no touchdowns, and six interceptions for an average quarterback rating of 19.8. It sounds like McFadden will be back after the bye, and hopefully two more weeks of practice will get Palmer ready to craft an actual performance. I don’t know what to think about the Chiefs, who have now won three straight, but I know I do like Steve Breaston and Jackie Battle in deeper leagues. Any team playing with momentum in a western conference has a decent chance to put up good numbers.
Steelers–Cardinals
This entire game was predicated on one fact: the Cardinals defense stinks. Yours truly was on record in saying that Patrick Peterson should’ve been the first overall pick in the draft this year, and I stand by that; but not even No. 1 overall talent can fix a defense this bad. The Steelers are starting to roll, but I don’t think they’re as good as this game made them out to be. This game also did nothing to shape my opinion of any player on either team. Keep starting your starters and don’t pick up anyone from these teams who isn’t already owned.
P.S. Mike Wallace is really fast.
Rams–Cowboys
With DeMarco Murray coming two yards short of Felix Jones’ rushing total for the season, it seems likely that another game or two of strong performances could bring about a changing of the guard at running back. The Rams persist in being the Newt Gingrich of the winless teams: they have no interest in the grand prize of being worst in the league but persist in competing for it. In the coming weeks, watch for the Rams to be eliminated from that competition for worst, as they have at least three wins in them versus the Saints, Cards, Browns, Seahawks, and then the Cards again.
World Series
I live in Oklahoma. I’m almost equidistant from the St. Louis Cardinals’ and the Texas Rangers’ home fields. The Tulsa Drillers have been a minor league team for both the Cardinals and the Rangers, and there is about a 50/50 fanbase in my area. So, when the Cardinals faced off against the Rangers in Game 3 of the World Series right after the Cowboys faced off against the Rams, it was very interesting in my neck of the woods. I can’t imagine what it must’ve been like in Dallas/Fort Worth for a Boys game followed by a Rangers World Series matchup.
Packers–Vikings
For the Packers, I’m not sure what there is to say. Sit any Green Bay receiver at your own risk, as they’re just as likely to go for 70 yards and a touchdown as they are two catches for 30 yards. For the Vikings, Christian Ponder looked good in his first start and McNabb handled the situation with poise by giving Ponder advice as needed.
Bonus Sportsmanship
In an amazing lack of coverage, only in the MNF pregame show did I see mention of Vikings defensive end Brian Robison squarely planting his cleat in Packers O-lineman T.J. Lang’s meat and potatoes. That’ll teach the young ones how to play fair.
Colts–Saints
If I had a nickel for every point the Saints scored in this game… Well, I’d only have $3.10, but 62 points allowed by any NFL defense is unacceptable. Graham, Colston, and Sproles put up the majority of the Saints’ points, all of which were scored in the first half. There was no running up the score here, the Colts simply gave up on this game in the face of a quick deficit and the tremendous homefield advantage of the Saints. That being said, on a neutral field, I would pick the Colts over the Dolphins by a touchdown.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth says
On the collapse of the Indianapolis Colts:
“It’s always such an interesting debate, whether or not… this team would be the same or anywhere close to it without Peyton Manning, but I don’t think any of these guys, these championship-caliber players, thought it would fall apart like this.”
Ah, what a beautiful run-on, crafted as only Chris Collinsworth can. My wife posed the question to me, “Do you think it frustrates Peyton Manning or inflates his ego that his entire team is ineffective without him?” To which I replied, “I don’t know about Peyton, but I imagine the rest of this team has to feel terrible. The other 52 can’t even compete without him! Even the defense!”
Defer to your wisdom
To begin the Monday night football game, the Jaguars won the opening coin toss and chose to defer the kick to the Baltimore Ravens. This is a great strategy in Madden, but does this work in the NFL? I am generally skeptical. Especially playing against such an aggressive defense, it seemed unwise to give them the chance to build and protect a lead. Luckily for the Jags, the Ravens didn’t eclipse 20 total yards until the third quarter.
Ravens–Jaguars
What a barnburner. Ironically, Steve Young said in the pregame that the Ravens had to be able to score 40 points to contend this year. Forty-five minutes in, they had scored none against a defense that has been gashed by many of the same offenses the Ravens figure to battle in the playoffs. Thanks to a miraculous catch by Torrey Smith and a quick post route by Anquan Boldin, they came within two points. After a failed onside kick, the Ravens D made an efficient stop only to see it rendered fruitless by a Joe Flacco interception with just less than two minutes left. The Ravens’ lack of offense—90 total passing yards—seems inexplicable. Is the Jags defense really that good?
This game contained a great hyper-specific stat: “Sam Koch was the first alternate for the AFC punter’s group in the Pro Bowl last season.” How prestigious! How glorious it must be to be elected the alternate punter for the Pro Bowl.
Week 7 was a bit of a downer as the doldrums of the bye weeks set in. Many fantasy teams will play ugly games next week as the Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, and Buccaneers go on bye. But look for good fantasy production out of your Bills and Niners. Michael Crabtree should be started in every league this week.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 3:56 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Christian Ponder, Vikings
Last week, Ponder was moving up with the proviso that it was for dynasty leagues only. After showing some moxie this week in nearly bringing the Vikings to a come from behind win over the undefeated Packers, Ponder is looking like he could be a useful asset at some point in 2011. Completing 13 of 32 passes isn’t pretty but he made some big plays, finishing with 219 passing yards and 31 rushing yards. It’s always nice when a rookie quarterback can pad his fantasy stats with three or four points on the ground every week.
Tim Tebow, Broncos
Bit of a qualifier here. My opinion on Tebow as a fantasy quarterback was pretty low compared to most so even a 13 of 27 for 161-yard, two-touchdown performance gets Tebow in the Moving Up column. Yes, he did have something like 40 passing yards with five minutes to go. Sure, if the Dolphins can chew up the clock, his fantasy point total would look really ugly. But this guy’s got some Doug Flutie in him – sans the accuracy, of course. He wins. It’s never conventional, it’s not going to be pretty but he wins. And as I said with Ponder, rookie quarterbacks who run are a little easier to live with.
John Beck, Redskins
In his first start of 2011, and first start since the 2007 season, Beck looked surprisingly good for the Redskins. Despite losing his best weapon in Santana Moss mid-game, Beck completed 22 of 37 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown with one interception. He also chipped in ten yards and a touchdown on the ground, giving him rushing touchdowns in consecutive games. Between Week 8 and Week 16, the Redskins have six games against teams with passing defenses ranked 21st or lower and just one game against a top ten passing defense.
Moving Down
Carson Palmer, Raiders
Moving from the unemployment line to being the anointed one in Oakland got Palmer Moving Up last week but I did qualify it by stating that “We will see how many weeks it takes him to shake off the rust.” After a three-interception performance in just two quarters, we have our answer – several. As in, Palmer looked so bad that it’s going to take several weeks before you can click him as your starter and feel good about it. In fact, he was so bad, he fills out my quota for the Moving Down portion at the quarterback position.
Running Backs
Moving Up
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Murray was moving up last week, a weak endorsement based on Felix Jones being out for a minimum of two weeks and a schedule that worked in his favor with the Rams and Eagles on tap. Well, he certainly took care of the Rams, setting a Dallas single game rushing mark with 253 yards on 25 carries and finding the end zone on a 91-yard run. Better yet, as noted, the Eagles are up next and Tashard Choice left the Rams game with a shoulder injury and there is no word yet on whether he will suit up next week. Time to rain on the parade a little… it was the Rams. They have the league’s worst run defense. Murray isn’t likely to get a 91-yard touchdown run every week where he makes exactly one defender miss. To be honest, I’m putting a major discount on this performance. I watched it and the Rams-D was UGLY. Don’t sell the farm for Murray.
Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers
This one’s a bit of a gamble but if you have an open roster spot, Lumpkin is worth grabbing. Starting running back LeGarrette Blount may play in Week 9 against the Saints following the Bucs Week 8 bye and top backup Earnest Graham is out for the year with a torn right Achilles’ tendon. We all know that Blount can’t catch so Lumpkin figures to get at least some playing time even if Blount is a go. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Bucs bring in another back with more experience catching the ball. Tiki Barber, anyone?
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
Battle was quietly efficient for the second game in a row, earning 16 carries and gaining 76 yards in the Chiefs 28-0 win over the Raiders. That gives him 216 total yards over his past two games and almost assuredly makes him the Chiefs running back to own for the balance of the 2011 season. He’s a plodder, yes. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, yes. LeRon McClain may continue to get the goal line work, yes. But Battle is the man in K.C. at the moment and that counts for something.
Ryan Torain and Roy Helu, Redskins
With starting running back Tim Hightower out for the season with a torn ACL, Torain and Helu figure to split carries for the Redskins… or maybe some other back on the roster… or maybe some other back not on the roster. At the moment, it’s one of these two. Pick your poison and mark my words, you will drink the poison. My money’s on Torain over the short haul with Helu taking over by Week 12.
Michael Bush, Raiders
Bush owners knew that starting Raiders running back Darren McFadden would get dinged up at some point but the timing isn’t exactly what they were hoping for with Oakland having a Week 8 bye. That gives McFadden two weeks to recover from the foot sprain he suffered this week against the Chiefs and reduces the chances Bush will get his first start of the season in Week 9 against the Broncos. Nonetheless, Bush looked solid against Kansas City, gaining 99 yards on 17 carries and also chipping in a pair of receptions for 12 yards.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
Willis McGahee stole his job but Moreno gets another chance to prove he is worthy of starting for the Broncos in 2012 with McGahee out several weeks with a broken index finger. I guess he’ll be running with plenty of confidence since the Broncos essentially gave up on him when they made McGahee the starter. Don’t expect much.
Alfonso Smith, Cardinals
Smith is the man in Arizona until Chris Wells returns to action. Week 8 looks horrible with the Ravens on tap but after that it’s the Rams (32nd ranked run defense) and Eagles (24th) followed by a no-hoper against the 49ers (2nd) and then the Rams again. So, Smith is usable in three of the next five games if Wells doesn’t go.
Moving Down
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Made. Of. Glass. Wells apparently suffered a knee bruise this week to the same knee that rendered him basically useless in 2010. Is more of the same on tap for 2011? Would you bet against it?
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Looks like there may be a changing of the guard at running back in Carolina. Jonathan Stewart has outperformed Williams for most of 2011 and Williams took more of a back seat role this week, getting 10 touches to 14 for Stewart. With Stewart already getting more work in the passing game and in short yardage, Williams value will take a serious hit if he starts losing carries to Stewart on a regular basis.
Thomas Jones, Chiefs
Jones starts. Battle gets most of the touches. LeRon McClain subs in for short yardage. Jones is too slow to make any big plays so he’s a 10-carry, 40-yard guy for the balance of the season. You can do better.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Roy Williams, Bears
Last week, it looked like Devin Hester was the Bears new number one wide receiver. After this week’s game against the Bucs, it looks like Roy Williams may have overtaken him, which is what Chicago had as their plan entering the season. He had his best game of the season this week, catching four of five targets for 59 yards and a score. The timing was good for Williams with Earl Bennett expected to return to the line up following Chicago’s Week 8 bye. Looks like Johnny Knox may be the odd man out if Bennett returns to assume his role as the team’s slot receiver.
 Marques Colston is on a tear. Marques Colston, Saints
Last week, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson were all Moving Down because Colston was back in the line up and there weren’t enough balls to spread around. Sure enough, Colston is on a tear, putting up his second consecutive strong performance in the Saints crushing win over the Colts. Colston caught all seven of his targets for 98 yards and a pair of scores, bringing his two week totals to 14 receptions for 216 yards and three touchdowns. He is shaping up as a mid-tier WR1 for the remainder of 2011.
Jabar Gaffney, Redskins
With reports indicating that Santana Moss will be out for 5-7 weeks with a fractured hand, Gaffney becomes the Redskins top threat at wide receiver. Or maybe “threat” isn’t the best word since he’s scored once in six games this year and just twice over his last 21 games. Maybe “consistent” is the better adjective. Here are Gaffney’s yardage totals this year – 54, 62, 60, 62, 55 and 68 for an average of 60 yards per game. In 2010, he averaged 55 yards a game. There you have it – you know what you’re getting with Gaffney – consistent mediocrity.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
I had DHB Moving Up two weeks ago and he has forced my hand with another pair of solid performances. Don’t look now but it is beginning to look like maybe the Raiders did the right thing in taking DHB over Michael Crabtree. Over his last four games, Heyward-Bey has 22 receptions for 385 yards and a touchdown, averaging 11.1 FPts per game. That’s mid-tier WR2 territory. Sure, the sample size is small but DHB rates no lower than as a WR3 for the balance of 2011.
Moving Down
Mike Thomas, Jaguars
I was all set to have Jason Hill Moving Down with Mike Sims-Walker back in Jacksonville and Hill likely headed to the bench. The only problem is, Thomas is headed to the bench. Worse yet for his owners, Hill led the Jaguars in targets against the Ravens, catching four of eight looks for 62 yards. Sims-Walker was targeted just twice with Thomas getting a single look. Despite getting a lucrative long-term extension a few weeks back, Thomas has seen his targets decrease for three straight weeks from 11 to 7 to 6 to 1.
Santana Moss, Redskins
With 39 and 38-yard performances in Weeks 4 and 6 (the Redskins were on a bye in Week 5), I was getting ready to have Moss Moving Down. His fractured hand seals the deal.
Danario Alexander, Rams
Brandon Lloyd is in town and while Alexander isn’t a forgotten man, the target total dropped to six this week, his lowest of the season. It doesn’t help that he’s caught just 16 of 39 targets.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Antonio Gates, Chargers
After pondering to the media whether he would even play in Week 7, Gates started and looked good, catching five of seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. Reports indicate that he didn’t have any setbacks so Gates is back to being a fantasy starter. Just make sure you keep a decent backup on standby.
Heath Miller, Steelers
After a slow start to the season, Miller has been a bigger factor in the Steelers passing attack over the last three weeks, particularly in the red zone. In Steeler wins over the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals, Miller has totaled 11 receptions for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Up next is the Patriots 32nd ranked pass defense just in case you need bye week filler.
Moving Down
Jermichael Finley, Packers
Sure, he scored a touchdown – that was nice. However, in his last two games Finley has been targeted a measly six times, with just three receptions for a miserly 33 yards and the touchdown. At the beginning of the season, nobody was expected to read “measly”, “just” and “miserly” in paragraphs about Finley. But here’s one that has all three. Time to change our assumptions about this cat. Here’s one more thing to consider – one game with double-digit fantasy points out of seven. Convinced?
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