FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

1. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the passing of Raiders owner Al Davis, Oakland once again hit the trade market in a desperate manner this week, giving up a 1st round pick in the 2012 draft and a conditional pick in the 2013 draft that could also be a 1st round pick in exchange for Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer. At worst, the 2012 pick will be the Raiders 2nd round choice. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Palmer hasn’t been the same player since suffering elbow ligament damage in 2008 and having shoulder issues last season. The bottom line is that the Raiders are a team loaded with deep threats at wide receiver and they gave away a boatload to acquire a player who hasn’t been much of a deep passer over the last two years.

The most successful rookie quarterback in 2011?

2. Sticking with the Palmer situation, the play the Raiders lost starting quarterback Jason Campbell for the season due to a broken collarbone occurred when Cleveland linebackers Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong took Campbell down on a pass rush. What kind of karma is that for the Browns? Credit Fujita and Gocong for helping hand the Bengals two premium picks in the next two drafts. If the Bengals hit on those picks, Browns fans will remember that bad karma for years to come.

3. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, the first player taken in the NFL draft, has taken the league by storm as well as the fantasy world with his amazing start to the season. However, you could make the argument that the most successful rookie quarterback, and the one with the best chance of taking his team to the playoffs, is the Bengals Andy Dalton. While Newton’s Panthers sit at 1-5, Dalton’s Bengals are 4-2 with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

4. Here’s a reminder why it’s always nice for your fantasy prospects to load up on players from the top offenses in the league. The Patriots failed to top 30 points this week against the Cowboys, marking the first time in 14 games that they failed to score 30 or more points. The Rams squads from the 1999 and 2000 seasons set the mark with 14, leaving the current New England squad one game shy of matching their record.

5. Sticking with the Patriots, while they didn’t hit the 30-point plateau this week, they did eek out another home win, giving them 20 straight wins at Foxboro. It seems like they manage to pull out wins there even when they play poorly, as was the case this week against Dallas.

6. Staying with that game, it was certainly a curious decision by Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to play for a field goal near the end of regulation, relying on his defense to hold against the Patriots offense. That decision backfired and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones called him out on it this week. Of course, that was Jerry being Jerry since he also wasn’t pleased when the Cowboys continued to play aggressively despite a big lead over Detroit, that decision also backfiring when quarterback Tony Romo threw three second-half interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, as the Lions came back to beat the Cowboys.

7. Sticking with questionable coaching, if Buffalo wasn’t a small market team, there would be howls of outrage over the decisions Chan Gailey made this week. With a little over four minutes remaining in a tied game, the Giants with two timeouts remaining and the Bills already in field goal position at the Giants 27-yard line, Gailey called for a go pattern down the sideline to Steve Johnson. However, Corey Webster had spent much of the day draped all over Johnson and already had one interception. Webster picked off an underthrown pass from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Giants promptly marched down the field for the game winning field goal. While running back Fred Jackson had been bottled up by the Giants run defense saved for a couple of big runs, Gailey would have been better served playing more conservatively, with the worst case scenario having the Giants needing a field goal to tie.

8. The Panthers placed starting right tackle Jeff Otah on injured reserve this week, marking the third time in his four seasons in the league that he has finished the season on injured reserve. Carolina’s 1st round pick in the 2008 season, Otah was outstanding in his rookie year but not as impressive in his sophomore season before missing all of the 2010 campaign. With Otah out of the lineup, the Panthers will turn to rookie undrafted free agent Byron Bell but that may be a stop gap measure until recently signed Reggie Wells is ready to play. If Bell struggles, look for left guard Travelle Wharton to slide out to right tackle with Wells stepping in at guard. Otah’s loss hurts the Panthers rushing attack, which is already struggling with neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart having solid seasons.

9. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates is listed as questionable this week but the odds are on him suiting up against the Jets. Head coach Norv Turner has indicated that Gates will be scaled back if he plays but one area where that likely won’t be the case is in the red zone, where the Chargers have struggled. Quarterback Philip Rivers has made a habit of protecting the ball in the red zone but has already thrown two picks there already in 2011. Look for Gates to resume his role as the Chargers preferred option near the goal line, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities for wide receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd.

10. While Saints rookie 1st round pick Mark Ingram has not performed up to expectations thus far in 2011, he gets a solid matchup this week in a home game against Indianapolis. The Colts run defense ranks 30th in the NFL and has played well in only one game thus far, a Week 4 road loss to the Steelers. Ingram has been a disappointment, averaging just 3.3 yards per touch but his fantasy performance has been saved by the three touchdowns he has scored in his last four games. If he can’t get it going this week against the Colts suspect run defense, it might be time to nail Ingram to your bench, if you haven’t already done so.

11. There was a lot of noise coming out of Chicago this week, the result of quarterback Jay Cutler being caught on camera telling Bears quarterback coach Shane Day to tell offensive coordinator Mike Martz to do something that shouldn’t be repeated on a family friendly website. This shouldn’t come as any surprise and is hardly newsworthy. Martz is known for riding his quarterbacks wherever he has been, including in St. Louis with his star pupil Kurt Warner. When Todd Haley was the Cardinals offensive coordinator, he had frequent sideline blowups with head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Warner and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Cutler’s apparent broadside amounts to little more than a tempest in a teapot.

12. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is having an MVP caliber season with his team throwing the ball far more than most expected. Having signed veteran free agent running back Darren Sproles away from San Diego and trading up to take Ingram near the end of the 1st round of the draft, the Saints were expected to run the ball more frequently than they did in 2010 when they struggled with injuries at the position. Their ability to run the ball was a key factor in their Super Bowl winning season and head coach Sean Payton was expected to attempt to replicate that strategy in 2011. However, the running game has struggled, leaving Brees to throw early and often. He threw for 383 yards in this week’s loss to the Bucs, making Brees the first player in league history to throw for 350 or more years in four consecutive games.

1. There probably isn’t a team in the league better at mining late round draft picks and undrafted free agents at the wide receiver position and turning them into productive players than Buffalo. Last year, former 7th round pick Steve Johnson stepped up to become the Bills go to wide receiver and with Lee Evans traded to Baltimore, David Nelson and Donald Jones, both undrafted free agents, stepped to the forefront over the first five weeks of the season. When Jones went out of the game with a high ankle sprain this week against the Eagles, Naaman Roosevelt, another undrafted free agent, took his place and caught five of seven targets for 41 yards. He also scored a 28-yard touchdown in Week 5 on his only target. If you’re looking for an option in a deep league, Roosevelt is worth keeping an eye on.

2. The 49ers lost starting wide receiver Josh Morgan to a potentially season-ending broken leg, leaving a large hole in their starting line up. Former Jet Braylon Edwards isn’t expected to return until after the team’s Week 7 bye, which means Ted Ginn Jr. will start opposite Michael Crabtree. In reserve, San Francisco has a pair of young receivers in Kyle Williams and Brett Swain who have a combined eight career receptions. Look for opposing defenses to put increased attention on tight end Vernon Davis and that may put a damper on his production until the team’s wide receivers start producing.

3. The news out of Cleveland is that rookie 2nd round pick Greg Little will be inserted into the Browns starting line up in Week 6. Little has more athletic ability than the team’s other wide receivers and appears to have shaken off the rust after little activity during his final season in college at North Carolina. While having a player move into the starting line up is generally positive for their fantasy prospects, this move isn’t quite the panacea some have made it out to be. Little was already heavily involved in the team’s passing attack, mostly at the expense of starter Brian Robiskie, with 18 targets over the past three weeks. Look for Little to see more targets than he has but at this point there isn’t any indication that the Browns plan to reduce the roles of Mohamed Massaquoi or Josh Cribbs, who rank 2nd and 4th on the team in targets with 28 and 20.

4. Texans coach Gary Kubiak felt the need to defend wide receiver Jacoby Jones’ performance during the team’s Week 5 loss to the Raiders where Jones put up a lackluster performance in catching just one of 11 targets. As my gramma used to say, it’s not what you say, it’s what you do. To that end, Jones’ fantasy prospects should be based not on what Kubiak said but what the Texans did which was immediately go out and acquire Derrick Mason from the Jets. Jones remains an enigma, a player who clearly has the athletic ability to succeed but has failed miserably in developing a rapport with quarterback Matt Schaub during his four plus seasons in the league. Meanwhile, veteran Kevin Walter did make the most of his increased opportunities this week, catching five of six targets for 81 yards and a score. He’s the Texans wide receiver to use as your replacement for Andre Johnson, not Jones.

5. With Mason out of the picture, rookie 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley becomes the Jets slot receiver and he played well in a Week 5 loss at New England, catching all three of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. However, the Jets passing attack can barely provide enough production for the team’s starters so Kerley makes for a poor fantasy option. While he figures to have an increased role in the team’s offense going forward, tight end Dustin Keller figures to benefit more with Mason’s departure and the recent reduction in LaDainian Tomlinson’s playing time. Look for Keller to be featured on more short and intermediate routes.

Driver has lost his fantasy relevance.

6. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was agitated this week when faced with questions over the reduced role of veteran wide receiver Donald Driver. With just nine receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown, Driver has been the 5th most productive wide receiver on the roster behind Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and rookie 2nd round pick Randall Cobb. With Driver having made his opinion known during training camp that he felt he should remain a starter, the last thing McCarthy wants is for his 5-0 Packers to lose focus over the 36-year old Driver’s playing time. Unfortunately for McCarthy, the questions are likely to keep coming because Cobb has played well enough to be a part of the team’s game planning and Jones has come on strong over the last two weeks after a slow start to the season. Look for Driver to remain little more than an afterthought in the Packers dominant passing attack.

7. Sticking with the Packers, this might be the first week in fantasy football history that an offense has eight startable players in one week. With a home game on tap against a Rams team that is ranked 31st against the run and 11th against the pass mostly because teams can run on them at will and they have been playing from so far behind, it’s not a stretch to say that wide receivers Jennings, Nelson, Jones and Cobb along with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, tight end Jermichael Finley and running backs James Starks and Ryan Grant are all worthy starters in 12 team leagues. If you’re a Rams fan, yes, it’s that sad.

8. Bucs wide receiver Mike Williams has been a major disappointment thus far in 2011 and noted to the media this week that he’s been playing poorly. However, a closer look reveals that, while Williams play isn’t on par with his performance during his rookie season, opposing defenses and quarterback Josh Freeman are also to blame. Opposing defensive coordinators have been playing softer coverages, forcing Freeman to check the ball down more frequently and causing his yards per attempt to drop from 7.2 last season to just 6.5 in 2011. In addition, he has thrown six interceptions against just three touchdowns and failed to connect on many big plays. Averaging just under eight targets per game, Williams remains the focal point of the team’s passing attack and the Bucs best hope to get increased production in that area over the balance of the season.

9. Sticking with the Bucs, the local Tampa Bay media reported late this week that running back LeGarrette Blount has a torn MCL that will keep him out of the lineup for at least four and possibly up to six weeks. If that’s the case, Earnest Graham figures to take over as the team’s starter during Blount’s absence with Kregg Lumpkin likely in store for a healthy dose of touches. The 31-year old Graham hasn’t had a 15-touch game since Week 9 of the 2008 season and there is little to suggest that he will be a workhorse back for Tampa Bay. That makes Lumpkin a speculative add in deeper leagues and also increases the likelihood the Bucs placing increased reliance on their passing attack until Blount returns.

10. Reports out of Denver indicate that the team has put wide receiver Brandon Lloyd on the trading block. If that’s the case, his fantasy owners should too. Lloyd’s remarkable 2010 season in which he caught 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns was an amazing story. However, there is a reason why Lloyd had seven seasons of marginal or low production prior to his breakout campaign and that makes the probability of him being traded midseason, having to learn a new playbook and being productive over the balance of the season very low. In essence, if you believe Lloyd will be traded, it’s high time to move him now. And with Lloyd a free agent at season’s end and the Broncos rebuilding and having three solid young receivers in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Eddie Royal, Lloyd’s days in Denver are numbered.

1. Big news coming out of Miami this week with word that quarterback Chad Henne will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered during the Dolphins loss to the Chargers. Henne’s injury likely spells doom both for his future as the team’s starting quarterback as well the future of head coach Tony Sparano. The Dolphins needed to contend for a playoff spot this season in order for Sparano to earn a contract extension but the chances of that happening with Miami sitting at 0-4 and Henne out for the season are remote at best. Sparano got the kiss of death this week when the team’s majority owner Steven Ross gave him a vote of confidence. As for Henne, he is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end and has done little to suggest that the Dolphins will re-sign him, having compiled a 13-18 record as the team’s starting quarterback.

2. With Henne out of the picture, the Dolphins will turn to veteran journeyman Matt Moore to take his spot in the starting line up. The team also signed Sage Rosenfels this week to bolster the depth chart and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over at some point. Moore started for the Panthers at the end of the 2009 season, compiling a 4-1 record with eight touchdowns and just a pair of interceptions. However, he bombed in the starting role in 2010, winning just one of six starts before suffering a season-ending injury.

3. Dolphin central this week. If you’re wondering what the impact of Miami replacing Henne with Moore for the team’s wide receivers, more specifically Brandon Marshall, here is what you need to know. Despite having Steve Smith at his disposal in Carolina, Moore has averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, making him more of a checkdown artist than Henne. Moore clearly does not possess Henne’s arm strength so there is little reason to suggest that Marshall will be able to deliver the big plays that were missing from the Dolphins offense for most of the 2010 season. From a fantasy perspective, that makes running back Reggie Bush the player most likely to benefit with Moore in the starting line up.

4. The Rams placed wide receiver Danny Amendola on injured reserve this week. Amendola was the team’s top receiver in 2010, catching 85 passes for 689 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams attempted to upgrade their receivers this year, signing former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker and using three draft picks on tight end Lance Kendricks (2nd round), Austin Pettis (3rd) and Greg Salas (4th). Unfortunately for the Rams and quarterback Sam Bradford, that hasn’t worked out as planned. That quartet has combined to catch just 30 of 68 targets for 329 yards and no touchdowns while dropping a several passes, including some in key situations. St. Louis has turned to Danario Alexander over the last three weeks (23 targets) while reducing the role of Brandon Gibson this past week (one target). However, the receiver who may ultimately provide a boost to the Rams passing attack is Mark Clayton. Clayton is eligible to come off the physically unable to perform list after Week 6 and was Bradford’s main target during the early part of the 2010 season. Despite being acquired from the Ravens at the end of the preseason, Clayton caught 22 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns during his first four games before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 5.

Rushing into the record books.

5. Thus far in 2011, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has not been able to replicate his 2010 production but he has a chance to reach a league milestone during this week’s road game against Buffalo. Vick needs just 71 yards to surpass Randall Cunningham to become the league’s all-time leading rusher amongst quarterbacks. Considering Vick is just 31 years old and does not appear to have lost any of the speed he entered the league with, the only obstacle to him making this record virtually untouchable is remaining injury free. If only he could start scoring some touchdowns for his fantasy owners (none so far in 2011 after scoring nine in just 12 games last season).

6. Last week, I told you that there was little chance of the Broncos handing over the leading running back role to Willis McGahee, mainly due to his age, lack of explosiveness and because it made sense for them to figure out what they had in former 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. Denver head coach John Fox thought otherwise, stating this week that McGahee had earned the right to be the team’s starter after a pair of 100-yard rushing efforts over the last three weeks. I guess what I was missing was that McGahee was brought in by Fox and Moreno was acquired by the previous regime. That means I forgot the golden rule that all NFL head coaches prefer to provide the solution rather than have the solution be on the roster when they arrive. Nonetheless, McGahee is averaging a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry and just 4.5 yards per reception so there is a decent chance Moreno ends up in the lead role soon enough.

7. The scuttlebutt surrounding the Redskins running back situation is that it’s best to avoid the teams’ three running backs altogether for fantasy purposes. Tim Hightower looked solid in the preseason, claiming the starting role on opening day from an injured Ryan Torain with rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu set as the team’s main backup. Sure enough, head coach Mike Shanahan seems to have changed that rotation with the emergence of Torain this week against the Rams (19 carries, 135 yards and a touchdown). All you had to do was watch that game to realize the talent differential between Torain and Hightower. The competition for the lead back role isn’t between Torain and Hightower (as most pundits have it), it’s between Torain and Helu. While Torain clearly is the more powerful of the two runners, Helu has the breakaway speed and upside that Shanahan craves in his running backs. Look for Torain to be given every chance to keep the job but history says that either injury or performance will provide Helu with an opportunity to start, probably sooner rather than later.

8. On initial glance, the news that Bengals running back Cedric Benson was facing a three game suspension for his off the field indiscretions couldn’t have come at a worse time for his fantasy owners with the bye weeks beginning this week. However, it appears that Benson’s appeal of his suspension could take a few, if not several, weeks to be resolved as his legal team is challenging the league’s right to suspend players for their off the field actions when they were locked out. Benson owners should hold off on hitting the panic button until this situation is resolved.

9. And on a somewhat football related note, I’m going to miss Hank Williams Jr. doing the introduction to Monday Night Football. It used to send shivers up my spine when I was younger, as it heightened the anticipation of what was generally a key game, often between division rivals. Not that I’m condoning his actions.