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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Aaron Williams — September 20, 2011 @ 2:17 pm
Welcome to Week 2 of the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Maybe it’s the lockout or maybe it’s legit, but this feels like one of the most exciting NFL seasons in recent memory. The week fizzled out on Monday night, but Sunday was phenomenal. Here on TMB, I’ll break down each game each week and hopefully never have to do so with a punctured lung. Let’s start with the perennial playoff contender Buffalo Bills.
Raiders–Bills
This was certainly the most interesting Raiders– Bills matchup in years. I heard one of the announcers say “We’ll be back with this thriller in Buffalo.” When do you think the last time the verbiage “thriller in Buffalo” was used in seriousness? This was a great game. McFadden showed what he can do when he is healthy, and Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson showed why they’re worth owning and why the Bills are better than you think.
Packers–Panthers
Which quarterback will be more talked about this week: media darling Aaron Rodgers or the mega-controversial, No. 1 overall drafted Cam Newton? Rodgers walked off the field with the win, but Cam Newton has almost 1,000 yards in his first two starts in the NFL. He’s less than 100 yards behind the magnificent Tom Brady through two games. Combine that with his rushing capabilities and he’s got to be all over sports talk radio this week. I have been critical of Newton since the draft for nothing other than his college scheme and lack of playing time. But he gets the Jags in Carolina on Sunday and will likely put up more stellar stats. At the very least, it’s time for Newton to come off the waiver wire in all leagues.
Chiefs–Lions
Believe it or not, the Chiefs defense did not look terrible, as abysmal as the final score makes them seem. They remained competitive for the first three quarters. But how much can you expect their defense to do when their offense is so pathetic? Once Charles went down with injury, it was left to Dwayne Bowe, who has proven that his mind will never match his talent. Beware: Stafford was wincing, stretching, and flexing all through the second half. But until he’s pronounced as “out,” you’ve got to start him.
Count yours truly among those who lost Jamaal Charles for the year today. It’s always terrible to see a season-ending injury for a football player, but it’s even more excruciating to see an entire franchise go down for the season with him.
Browns–Colts
The story of this game is Delone Carter. His 11 carries versus Addai’s 14 means that once Addai goes down—and he will go down—Carter will get a lot of work. Watch out for Carter in the second half of this season. Colt McCoy and Kerry Collins both had subpar passing numbers. Peyton Hillis looked fantastic, but I maintain that his head-first power running style is shortening his career with each and every run.
Buccaneers–Vikings
The Buccaneers’ success rides on LeGarrette Blount just as the Falcons’ success rides on Michael Turner. Each of those teams has great receivers and even greater quarterbacks, but the running game is the X-factor, especially for the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers had no points at halftime, but once Blount got going, they made a furious comeback and won a game that they should’ve had in hand by halftime.
On the Vikings’ side of the ball, Adrian Peterson proved why he was worth the No. 1 pick in all formats. There is no arguing with 120 yards and two TDs against a respectable front seven. He is so strong, so fast, and so decisive that he is unsittable during the season and impassable in drafts.
Saints–Bears
The Saints D was able to control a Bears offense that really doesn’t seem that explosive, but overall the Bears were able to stop the big play, which is their M.O. Brees and Henderson did get the one great 79-yard touchdown, but the Bears were otherwise able to keep them to under 20 yards on receptions. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Saints have such a great cast of playmakers that they can play short all day and move down the field.
To illustrate: the Saints had eight players catch passes and four players with positive rush yards, adding up to three TDs and three FGs. However, in my estimation, that’s three too many field goals based on the amount of catches and short runs New Orleans was able to make. The Saints are a great offense but continue to flirt with being just good enough on each drive to get points instead of really going for the throat and making sure there are no comebacks. When playing an offense like the Bears, you may be able to win with fields goals. However, as we saw last week, if you can’t score touchdowns, you can’t beat high-octane offenses such as the Packers. In a division as strong and fast-paced as the NFC South, the Saints need to up their red zone efficiency if they want to win their division.
Jaguars–Jets
The Jaguars, similar to the Chiefs, just don’t have the offense to contend this year. Down to essentially one playmaker, they tried to get MJD going, and he did his best with 18 carries for 88 yards. An average of 4.9 yards per carry is pretty good against what may be the stoutest defense in football. Despite MJD’s effort, the Jets defense took advantage of Jacksonville’s miserable quarterback situation, and the turnovers made this an easy contest. Watch for Keller to continue to be effective this season. He’s streaky, but Sanchez does look for him, especially when Holmes is the first but is covered.
Seahawks–Steelers
This year the Steelers are likely to be somewhere between the seven-turnover loss to the Ravens last week and their shutout of the Seahawks this week. The Seahawks are another miserably undermatched team and have one of the worst offensive lines the NFL has ever seen. Because of this, I would not own anyone out of Seattle, and I wouldn’t get too excited about the Steelers’ play. Pittsburgh’s offensive line doesn’t look much better, and their defense will not shut down a strong offense the way they were able to shutdown these Seahawks. I’m avoiding all Seahawks, and I’m figuring any Steeler is worth wherever you drafted him.
Ravens–Titans
Last week, the Ravens rode the wings of seven turnovers to a much more impressive stat line. This week, all Baltimore pass catchers combined for only 15 catches and 197 yards. For now, the Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL in my eyes, and I’m willing to chalk this one up to a trap game. They came off a fantastic victory and probably had no belief in the Titans. Matt Hasselbeck is a great veteran quarterback who took advantage of a Ravens team that seemed to be looking past the Titans. I don’t mind Hasselbeck as a bye-week fill-in or an injury backup, and he’s certainly got Kenny Britt poised to have a career year.
Cardinals–Redskins
It’s interesting that two pass-first teams met and the story is the running backs. Beanie Wells rushed a healthy 14 times for 93 yards and a TD, and Tim Hightower rushed a whopping 20 times for 96 yards. The Cardinals threw the ball twice as often as they ran it while the Redskins were 55/45 in their pass/run ratio. I know Grossman isn’t the savior of the Redskins, but I expected much more passing than that. Santana Moss did haul in respectable receiving numbers again, however. I was certain this was the most boring game of the week until I ran into the brick wall that was Monday Night Football.
Cowboys–49ers
I’m not worried about Tony Romo. Yes, he’s not as mistake-proof as Brady, Brees, and Manning, but we can’t expect every good quarterback to be as great as those guys. Romo is dynamic, he wants to make plays, and he wants the Cowboys to win. In pursuit of those goals, he sometimes makes a boneheaded mistake or gets injured trying to make unnecessary plays, but he cares about his team and gutted it out in San Fran with what turned about to be a pretty dire injury. In the third quarter, I was thinking that if Alex Smith and Jon Kitna changed jerseys, maybe they could complete passes to the correct team. However, when Romo brought competence back into the game, Dallas came back and stepped it up in overtime. It wasn’t as pretty as it could have been, but the ‘Boys came away with a win.
Bengals–Broncos
Kyle Orton. Tim Tebow. Eric Decker. Jerome Simpson. A.J. Green. Andy Dalton. I’m really not interested in any of these guys. Is it likely they will each have some big games? Yes. Is it likely that Decker and Green might even have consistent fantasy points? Certainly. I, however, look for players on teams with the arrows pointing up on their seasons, and both of these teams may already have as many wins as they’ll end up with by the end of the season.
On the other hand, did you see Tebow come in as a receiver? That was the best block I’ve ever seen! He has the heart of a lion, and if he can block like that on a couple of downs then he can certainly have a Hall of Fame career as a passer! Let’s trade Brandon Lloyd and make Tim Tebow our No. 1 wide receiver! Ok, I do have faith in Tim Tebow, but let’s calm it down until he can prove it. If Orton is better than Tebow on the practice field, then Orton is the starter. It’s that easy.
Texans–Dolphins
 Brandon Marshall is looking like a top-ten fantasy wideout. Early on, it’s looking as though Brandon Marshall may be the steal of this draft. He’s putting up top-10 numbers right now, and he was a fourth- to sixth-round fantasy pick. The man is a red zone beast and is among the hardest to tackle in open space. As long as he doesn’t get stabbed by any more women, I can see him putting up numbers similar to the Texans’ main man, Andre Johnson.
Speaking of AJ, a touchdown per game seems like an afterthought for him. If he finished a game with 60 yards and a score, I might think he missed a quarter or two. In other playmaker news, Foster rushed back from his hamstring injury and aggravated it. If he actually wants to be successful this year, he needs to sit long enough to fully regain his health. All he is doing by taking a few handoffs before having to leave is upsetting the rhythm of his offense. Despite that, Schaub and Ben Tate were enough to keep the Texans in the lead to the end of the game.
Chargers–Patriots
I wonder if the Patriots are the first team in NFL history to have three of eleven men on the field with “kowski” in their last name on field goal attempts. For that matter, I wonder if they’re the first team with two Gronkowskis. Watch for NBC to sometime turn this into a hyper-specific obscure stat: “Tom Brady is the first quarterback to complete 15 or more passes to two tight ends with the last name Gronkowski in the same half while playing below the Mason-Dixon line.” Maybe Chad Ochocinco could change his name to Chad Johnkowski just to make sure the record is never broken. Then again, he would have to get involved enough in the offense to actually get onto the field.
The Chargers started by doing what they do best by setting up the run with the pass, and Mathews looked good throughout the game. They are trying to give Mathews the job; he just has to continue to improve. Even though the Bolts had a lot of sloppy turnovers, the game was still relatively close. I would say that this loss should not be too harrowing, especially since it was lost in Foxborough.
Now, how about that Vincent Jackson! Some people love quick, lightning bug playmakers like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, and Miles Austin. I, however, am smitten by the giant physical receiver. I’ll take Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Dez Bryant, and Calvin Johnson any day. There’s nothing more exciting to me than seeing Vincent Jackson leap over four defenders to haul in a 50-yard TD pass, or seeing Brandon Marshall catch a short pass in the flat and proceed to manhandle several DBs and a linebackers in pursuit of the end zone.
If you have a target that’s huge and fast, you can send him out wide and throw indefensible passes for major chunks of yardage. Once in the red zone, a big receiver’s value grows exponentially, as jump balls to the back corner are likely to result in either a touchdown or pass interference. When considering which WRs to draft (after examining their QB situation), I always look for fast and big targets.
Eagles–Falcons
This game could’ve been a stinker. I don’t care how great the “Vick returns to Atlanta” storyline is, if the game isn’t electric then the storyline build-up is pointless. I don’t care how many playmakers you have, if it doesn’t have exciting headlines then it won’t get your attention. No, this game wasn’t a surefire, trademark game-of-the-season until Samuel L. Jackson took the field to scream a fiery cult-like chant to inspire the crowd. I don’t see how any team being enchanted by the only man awesome enough to play Nick Fury and Mace Windu could possibly lose.
That sweet Sammy J. mojo took the form of Michael Turner, who dominated this game. This offense runs through Turner, not Ryan, as long as he is healthy. That’s why all Philly’s strength in the secondary couldn’t stop the Dirty Birds. I’m well aware that Ryan threw the touchdowns, but Tony Gonzales would certainly not have been that effective had Turner not steamrolled the Philly D and forced them to play heavy run defense.
On the Eagles side of the ball, Vick proved exactly why he is not my QB in any league. He may be the most complete athlete in the NFL, but anyone who gets hit that often is too risky for my blood. It doesn’t matter if it’s the first sack or the forty-first, if you’re getting hit you’re likely to be hurt. Fantasy football is a weekly game, and Michael Vick is not going to perform every week for you.
Rams–Giants
My favorite line from this game: “Hoomanawanui tackled by Mathias Kiwanuka.” I’m sorry, what? If only Lofa Tatupu could’ve made it into the conversation somewhere. Coming into this game, I pondered what the NFL schedule makers were thinking when they made this the Monday Night Football selection. This is a perfect 1 p.m. Sunday nap-time game, and both teams played it like one. It was sloppy, it was slow, and the Giants weren’t nearly as good as their four-touchdown score looks.
Sam Bradford continued to show he’s worth the pick and the paycheck , even in an ugly mess of a terrible game. Bradford is physically gifted, but he really shines with his cerebral quarterback play. I’ll take the smart quarterback over the fast or strong quarterback every time. These Rams feel like the Lions when they were coming off their 0-16 season. They’re still a couple years away from being truly good, but their arrow is pointing up and they have the quarterback to make them elite. Watch for St. Louis to draft some big names at receiver and be a fantasy force to be reckoned with next year.
P.S. – Man, Hakeem Nicks is really good.
$#^! Chris Collinsworth Says
Nearly every Sunday night, Chris Collinsworth says something ridiculous. This week, however, he was generally respectable in his commentary, no outrageously obvious nuggets. No, this week the role of Collinsworth was taken over by the normally fantastic but just as goofy Jon Gruden. Coach Gruden on the St. Louis Rams’ ineffective red zone play in the first quarter: “If the Rams don’t get their red zone offense under control, they’re going to have problems beating anyone!”
And that’s it! Week 2 is in the books, and, gosh, it’s good to have football back. Check back next Tuesday for more breakdowns and fantasy advice.
By: Dave Stringer — September 16, 2011 @ 1:08 pm
1. As expected, it didn’t take long for the heat to get turned up on Seattle starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and head coach Pete Carroll can blame himself for at least a portion of that problem. The Seahawks 2nd year coach signed Jackson and immediately installed him as the team’s starting quarterback sans competition. The team’s fans may not have been completely behind backup Charlie Whitehurst but there was strong sentiment that a competition was in order. And Jackson did nothing to dispel that notion with a middling Week 1 performance against division rival San Francisco, competing 21 of 37 passes for 197 yards, a pair of scores and one interception. With Seattle going on the road to face Pittsburgh, they are staring with an 0-2 record before their home opener against the Cardinals.
2. When the Jaguars decided to release David Garrard, the fantasy prospects of the team’s wide receivers and tight ends took a hit with running back Maurice Jones-Drew also going down a notch, albeit not a big one. While Garrard is clearly not a top-notch passer, he is a proven commodity which is more than can be said for his replacement Luke McCown. And if Week 1 is any indication, those predictions figure to be proven correct. The Jaguars ran the ball 47 times at home against the Titans with McCown attempting just 24 passes, completing 17 for 175 yards.
3. Sticking with that game, rookie Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak came up with one of the more perplexing Week 1 offensive game plans. Although Chris Johnson was coming off a lengthy holdout and the team correctly chose to limit his touches, they may have gone a tad too far. Johnson ran the ball just nine times (gaining 24 yards) in addition to his six receptions (25 yards). By game’s end, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had attempted 34 passes to just 13 rushing plays. It will be tough for Tennessee to balance out their run-pass ratio in Week 2 against a solid Ravens defense.
4. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman wasn’t getting much love in the preseason and for good reason: he spent most of it listed second on the depth chart behind John Beck. However, he opened the season as the team’s starter and promptly lit up a leaky Giants secondary for 305 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This was clearly a case of Good Rex and based on history, we can expect to see plenty of Bad Rex in 2011. That being said, a quick look reveals that Bad Rex hasn’t been hanging out in Washington much. In four career starts for the Redskins, Grossman has thrown for 1,145 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, averaging a healthy 23.5 fantasy points per game. That type of production makes Grossman a solid option if you plan on playing matchups at the quarterback position.
5. With Michael Crabtree unable to finish the 49ers game in Week 1, the team was forced to use Ted Ginn in the base offense for a number of plays. However, the team’s coaching staff would prefer to have him focus on the return game where he was outstanding against Seattle, returning both a kickoff and punt for touchdowns. If Crabtree is unable to play, look for Kyle Williams, the team’s 2010 6th round draft choice, to see time in the base offense and an increase in the number of two tight end sets.
 Bush will share the workload with Daniel Thomas in Week 2. 6. The Dolphins acquired former Saints running back Reggie Bush to be their lead back in 2011 but few saw him receiving the type of workload he had in Week 1. Bush carried the ball 11 times in Week 1 against the Patriots and also caught nine passes, finishing the game with 94 total yards and a touchdown. The highest number of touches he had in 2010 was 14 and the 20 touches he had in Week 1 were his highest total since Week 3 of the 2008 season. With Bush not looking as dynamic in the fourth quarter as he did in the first, it was no surprise when the Dolphins announced this week that the plan going forward was for Bush to share more of the workload and earn about 70% of the touches out of the backfield. While that shouldn’t come as a surprise, what was a bit of a shocker was that the plan is apparently for rookie running back Daniel Thomas to share the workload with Bush. Thomas sat out Week 1 with an apparent hamstring injury and the Dolphins signed Larry Johnson and have also worked out a number of other veteran running backs. Nonetheless, Thomas seems set to make his debut and likely get 6-8 touches in the Dolphins Week 2 home game against the Texans.
7. Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell shaped up as a bit of a sleeper option in 2011 based on his final five games of the 2010 season when he averaged 19.1 points per game, not to mention a wide receiver depth chart loaded with speedsters. However, the depth chart isn’t looking so loaded these days with a number of banged up players including tight end Kevin Boss who missed Week 1 with a knee injury and may not be ready in time for the team’s game on Sunday in Buffalo. The end result for Campbell owners was a Week 1 disaster, with 105 passing yards with his fantasy day saved by a touchdown run. Week 2 isn’t looking too promising with Jacoby Ford nursing a sore hamstring, Louis Murphy suffering from a groin injury, Darrius Heyward-Bey injuring a knee in practice on Thursday and rookie 5th round Denarius Moore predictably doing a Week 1 disappearing act after having an outstanding preseason. There’s an outside chance Campbell might be chucking it to Chaz Schilens, Derek Hagan and Nick Miller a lot on Sunday.
8. You have to love the passion the Broncos fans have with reports that they are planning to post Play Tim Tebow billboards in the Denver downtown area. Personally, after watching the team’s horrendous offensive line play in Week 1, maybe the billboards should be directed at replenishing that unit, although that clearly isn’t a realistic option given the dearth of available veteran talent at the moment.
9. With Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson having only one solid season and Lee Evans having been shipped out of town, the team’s other wide receivers were worthy of late round picks in larger fantasy leagues and monitoring on the waiver wire in smaller leagues. With the news this week that 2010 4th round pick Marcus Easley was placed on injured reserve with a reported heart ailment, that proposition became a lot less lottery like. Veteran Roscoe Parrish shapes up as nothing more than an option out of the slot, leaving David Nelson and Donald Jones to battle for playing time on the outside opposite Johnson. Nelson has good size at 6’5”, 215 pounds and shapes up as a solid red zone option, as evidenced by the three touchdowns he scored in the final four games of 2010. That likely makes him the better option for a spot on the end of your fantasy bench.
By: Dave Stringer — September 13, 2011 @ 2:50 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Cam Newton, Panthers
As debuts go, you couldn’t have asked for more. In the “stating the obvious” category, we give you Cam Newton. Facing a group of Cardinals cornerbacks that can charitably be called up-and-coming, Newton went gangbusters, throwing for 422 yards (the most ever by a quarterback in their first start) and a pair of touchdowns while chipping in 18 yards and another score on the ground. His 36.9 fantasy points were third most among quarterbacks in Week 1, so the question is: Is he the next coming of Michael Vick or a one week flash in the pan? We’d settle for something in the middle, and that figures to be a whole lot more than was predicted during the preseason.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
I’m not putting him here because I was surprised by his 305-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers. That wasn’t surprising. I’m putting him here because I don’t want a torrent of comments about why he’s not Moving Up. Frankly, I had him as a low-end starter, but maybe he’s more of a mid-tier starter. Health is always a concern, however.
Chad Henne, Dolphins
New Dolphins offensive coordinator Brian Daboll promised to open up the offense, and that’s what he did on Monday night. Henne completed 30 of 49 passes for a career-high 416 yards. He also chipped in two passing touchdowns and a score on the ground. By the end of the game, he had chalked up an impressive 40.6 fantasy points, the second most of any quarterback in Week 1.
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Sure, the Cowboys secondary was chewed up, forcing them to play their fourth and fifth best cornerbacks for large chunks of the game. Sure, Sanchez had a stretch where he looked a tad short of awful. But he looked different in Week 1. And, no, I can’t put my finger on exactly what it was. The Cowboys came after him hard, but Sanchez stood in there, completing 26 of 44 passes for 333 yards and a pair of touchdowns with one pick. Maybe, just maybe, he is ready to take a step forward and provide the Jets with a more consistent passing attack. He’s not a fantasy starter yet, but I’m moving him up to mid-tier backup based on his Week 1 performance.
Moving Down
Donovan McNabb, Vikings
The optimists said McNabb’s one-and-done showing in Washington had more to do with Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan than McNabb’s own performance. The pessimists said Shanahan knows quarterbacks and if he was giving up on McNabb one year after having used a second-round pick to acquire him, then he must be done. His Week 1 performance showed that the probability of McNabb having a renaissance season in 2011 for the Vikings is very low. He threw for a career-low 39 yards (with just two total yards in the second half) during Minnesota’s 24-17 loss to the Chargers. Not that second-half adjustments were needed, but I guess they really worked. To the scrap heap with McNabb, my friends.
Running Backs
Moving Up
James Starks, Green Bay
Let’s see…Starks is bigger than Ryan Grant, he’s stronger and he’s faster. Sure, he has some hiccups in pass protection, but only one of the two sacks that he was on the field for was his fault. By the end of the Packers’ Week 1 game against the Saints, Starks had chalked up 12 carries (to only nine for Grant), gaining 57 yards and impressively battling his way to the end zone on a touchdown run. Plus, Starks was on the field far more than Grant and, simply put, he is the more talented runner. I will eat crow if he isn’t starting by midseason.
Ben Tate, Texans
With Arian Foster out of the lineup with a hamstring injury, the Texans were forced to use backups during their key divisional matchup in Week 1 against the Colts. Although Houston announced that veteran Derrick Ward would replace Foster in the starting lineup, it wasn’t hard to predict that Tate would get the majority of the work considering his strong preseason play. Sure enough, he ran it often and ran it well, piling up 121 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He is worthy of a start as long as Foster remains out, and he could be a solid flex option even when Foster returns.
Cadillac Williams, Rams
Steven Jackson suffered a strained quadriceps on his first play of the year, a 47-yard touchdown run against the Eagles, and was finished for the day after testing the injury on one more play. It is unknown if Jackson will miss any time, and although he has a history of playing through injuries, the Rams may be more willing to have him sit out a game or two now that they have a proven backup. Williams played well against the Eagles, carrying the ball 19 times for 91 yards and catching five passes for 49 yards. He is starter worthy if SJax is out of the lineup.
Moving Down
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
One play can make a day and one thundering touchdown run in the playoffs can make a player an RB2. Before the next regular season starts, at least. Lynch was getting far more love than he deserved in fantasy drafts this year, with some predicting a breakout season for the former Bills first-round pick. However, there was no basis for ranking Lynch higher than an RB3, and even that was giving him more credit than he deserves. Tarvaris Jackson is starting at quarterback, there are issues along the offensive line, the top wide receiver is injury-prone and, most importantly, Lynch isn’t that good and he wasn’t very good in 2010. Against the 49ers in Week 1, he ran it 13 times for 33 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry, which is slightly worse than his 3.6 yards per carry in 2010 and his 3.8 average in 2009. Yards per carry—use it. It means something. In this case: Plodder.
Ryan Grant, Packers
At the conclusion of the preseason, the Packers announced that Grant would open as the starter but that they planned to rotate him with James Stark. Turns out rotate meant Grant would play one-third of the time with Starks playing the rest. That’s not good news for Grant owners. He’s a borderline starter in deeper leagues but should be on the bench in standard 10- and 12-team leagues.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
 Smith: A WR2 moving forward. Steve Smith, Panthers
A combination of his age and the Panthers’ entering the season with rookie Cam Newton at quarterback had Smith’s preseason rankings at an all-time low. Looks like most of us were wrong on both counts. Newton played well and Smith was the Panthers’ biggest beneficiary, catching eight passes for 176 yards and a pair of touchdowns, good enough for 29.8 fantasy points. Not bad for a guy who hit double fantasy points just twice in 2010. Smith deserves to be considered a WR2 for the balance of 2011.
Devery Henderson, Saints
Henderson is coming off a solid Week 1 performance with six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown, and Marques Colston is expected to miss four to six weeks with a broken collarbone. Production plus opportunity equals success. Alright, that hasn’t always been the case with Henderson; but with Lance Moore missing Week 1 with a groin injury and remaining a question mark for Week 2, the Saints may have no choice but to start Henderson and Robert Meachem. If that happens, Henderson is worthy of a spot in your starting lineup.
Randall Cobb, Packers
Two catches for 35 yards and a touchdown shouldn’t get you a spot in Moving Up, but all you had to do was watch the game to know that this guy is special. Just reading the box scores isn’t going to carry you to too many fantasy football championships. Cobb remains a backup wide receiver in all formats but he is dynasty-league gold. Mark it down.
Jacoby Jones, Texans
If it seems like Jones is a perennial tease, that’s because he is. In Week 1, however, he showcased his playmaking ability, taking a punt return 79 yards for a touchdown. He also chipped in three receptions for 43 yards in the Texans’ blowout win over the Colts. Here’s the case for Jones: Kevin Walter could be out for the year, Jones caught all of his targets, and he would have had more looks had the Texans not run away with it early.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
I saw a smallish-looking player on the field for the Seahawks on Sunday and my first thought was, he must have played for head coach Pete Carroll at USC. But he was actually a rookie from Stanford who played for 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. Go figure. He led the Seahawks in targets with six, catching four passes for 83 yards, including a 55-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown that pulled the Seahawks close to the 49ers. Baldwin is a slot receiver all the way, so Sidney Rice’s absence likely doesn’t impact him. He’s probably fighting with Golden Tate for playing time (and Tate wasn’t that great, catching one of five targets for eight yards, although it was for a touchdown). For deep, deep leagues only (really deep—got it).
Moving Down
Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
It’s hard to score many fantasy points when you are never on the field. On a day when quarterback Tom Brady threw for a ridiculous 517 yards, Ochocinco caught a single pass for 14 yards. While game plans change from week to week, the Patriots would be foolhardy to reduce the number of two-tight-end sets they use; that would take either Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez off the field. A further hurdle for Ochocinco is that Wes Welker and Deion Branch are entrenched as the team’s top two wide receivers. Did I mention that Matt Slater is getting the work as the team’s deep threat? That leaves #85 with the scraps.
Danny Amendola, Rams
After catching 85 passes a year ago, Amendola shaped up as a great option in PPR leagues in 2011 with new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels expected to bring a more high-powered offense to St. Louis. Unfortunately, Amendola suffered a dislocated elbow during the Rams’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles and he will be out for at least the next few weeks.
James Jones, Packers
It’s not so much his Week 1 production (one target, one reception, one yard), it’s the performance of the Packers’ other wide receivers that should be cause for concern for James Jones owners. With a nagging knee injury, his poor performance is easily explained away. Unfortunately for Jones, Donald Driver looks rejuvenated (four receptions for 41yards), Jordy Nelson looks established as the team’s top backup (six for 77 and a score), and Randall Cobbs looks like a future superstar (two for 35 and a touchdown to go along with a kickoff return touchdown and punt return that he was so close to turning into another score). The final nail in the coffin is that, as expected, the Packers used tight end Jermichael Finley in their four-receiver formations. That means Jones is going to have to surpass Driver and Nelson on the depth chart to get any meaningful playing time. I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t dress in Week 2.
Kevin Walter, Texans
He’s out at least 10 weeks with a shoulder injury. He was a borderline backup fantasy WR at best, so this news sinks any value he had.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Ed Dickson, Ravens
Ah, now I see why the Ravens dumped Todd Heap early in training camp. This Dickson guy has got game. He made a great catch in the end zone for a touchdown and tossed in four more receptions, finishing Week 1 with 59 receiving yards and 11.9 fantasy points. With only two proven wide receivers on the roster, one of which is highly inconsistent, Dickson figures to get plenty of looks in the Ravens offense. And if Week 1 is any indication (and it should be when the Ravens score 35 points on the Steelers’ defense), the Ravens will have a top-10 offense in 2011. Dickson could be a low-end TE1 by season’s end.
Scott Chandler, Bills
He caught one pass last season. That reception was the only one of his four-year career. One of those years, he was out of the league altogether. So what did Chandler do in Week 1 against the Chiefs? How about catch five balls for 63 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Not one. Two. The Bills likely would have settled for two touchdowns for the year considering the pathetic play of their tight ends during the 2010 season, another in a long line of non-existent production from the position. The Bills won’t put up 41 points every week, and maybe they won’t reach that again in 2011, but Chandler moves up into TE2 category based on his Week 1 performance.
Moving Down
Lance Kendricks, Rams
Kendricks had what appeared to be a solid preseason, scoring on three touchdown catches, but he also dropped a number of passes. He continued that disturbing trend this week against the Eagles, catching one of five targets but dropping two easy catches, one of which likely would have resulted in a six-yard touchdown. Kendricks was getting some love as a potential low-end fantasy starter, but his suspect hands mean he’s going to be fighting off Michael Hoomanawanui when he returns from a calf injury.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 1:28 pm
Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Each week I’ll give you a quick analysis on each of the week’s games.. This week was my wife’s birthday (Happy Birthday Christina!), so I was unfortunately unable to catch the football wrecking crew known as the Buffalo Bills in their rout of last year’s AFC West Champion Chiefs.
Saints – Packers
Football’s glorious return finally arrived Thursday night as New Orleans faced off against the Packers in an NFC showdown. Have you noticed how the NFC games are always showdowns? Rare is the telecast that promotes a “showdown” in the AFC North. In the NFC, though, the only thing more numerous than the use of “showdown” in promotions was the amount of stickers on Kid Rock’s piano during the opening performance. I’d give KR a 4.5/10 for his performance, but the “Back to football” presentation overall was almost enough to draw tears.
 Jennings got the Packer party started. First let me say, I think I have a man-crush on Greg Jennings. He just has the right attitude and demeanor be an absolute beast at wide receiver. Jennings scored early on Patrick Robinson and set in motion a fireworks show of a football game as offenses on both sides made good defenses look bad.
On the topic of physical freak pass catchers, how about the tight ends in this game? Jimmy Graham and Jermichael Finley both looked outstanding. It took a while for Graham to get involved, but I’m still a firm believer that he was one of the best values in this year’s draft. As far as running backs, look for Starks and Ingram to be the most valuable RBs from these teams, though expect low value as long as the current timeshares continue.
How about the slippery field shenanigans at Lambeau? To this end, Chris Collinsworth proved why he makes the big bucks. Collinsworth on the Saints’ slipping: “The Saints have to stay on their feet!” Where is the “$%^# Chris Collinsworth Says” blog? Anyway, I counted eight slips in the first half after Collinsworth’s magical comment. There were likely another four before that. Twelve men falling while trying to catch a pass or defend it in one half is unacceptable.
Ravens-Steelers
Joe Flacco is my QB due to a dreaded Peyton Manning pick I was nearly forced to make. I almost traded for Matt Schaub after the Manning news came out, but I decided to stick to my guns after I traded Arian Foster for Greg Jennings before week one of last year. Don’t take too much away from this concerning the Steelers, they should bounce back. Also don’t take too much away from this regarding the Raven’s D, they’re still getting old. Seven turnovers won’t happen again this year for them. However, do feel good about the rest of the season for the Ravens O, which came out looking like it should have looked last year.
Bills – Chiefs
I don’t know what sorts of breakdowns the Chiefs had, but I do think they are a middle-of-the-pack team. It seems to me that everyone forgot how good the Bills were last year, including the Kansas City Chiefs. Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson are among last year’s hottest waiver-wire pickups and should be owned in all leagues this year.
Eagles – Rams
The Eagles did what they were expected to do. Particularly LeSean McCoy proved he was worth the pick. On the Rams side of the ball, Steven Jackson a la Steven Jackson went out in a blaze of glory with two touches for 50 yards and a TD. In his place, Cadillac Williams proved there is still some tread on the tires despite being nearly totaled a few years back. Sam Bradford disappointed, but I think he will bounce back and still finish nice this year.
Falcons – Bears
The Bears did their best Falcons impression and came out hot to start the game. That offensive show, in conjunction with their stout D, put the Falcons in a hole they couldn’t climb out of. They say they called deep passes which were covered up, but I still don’t have faith that this offense is all of a sudden going to be a downfield offense. Watch for Julio Jones to repeat this stat line (5 catches, 71 yards) often this year.
Browns – Bengals
To hear those from Ohio tell it, the Browns are overhyped every year and disappoint every year. I think the rest of the nation understands that the Browns are going to be terrible every year and holds no expectations otherwise. Look, Colt McCoy is a good quarterback, but he’s a long way away from being relevant in football and he’s exponentially farther from being worthwhile in fantasy. My general policy is to avoid anyone playing home games in Ohio.
Chargers – Vikings
Let me start with this: the Chargers are my Super Bowl pick this year and I’ve been taking a lot of flak for it. Well, they looked pretty good Week 1, albeit not in the way you’d think. Somehow, Mike Tolbert scored more points through the air than he scored in his entire 2010 season. Tolbert got the TDs, but Mathews looked better in space and through the line. I’ll always take the talent over the “goal-line” tag. Just like I yelled for Ray Rice over Willis McGahee all last year, including when McGahee was getting all the TDs, I yell for Mathews this year. By the way, they both got 12 carries in this game. In the second quarter, the Chargers finally put one up deep as VJax blew past a defender. He’s racing down the field… Fantasy owners everywhere are on their feet… It’s a touchdown… or, it’s right through his hands and on the turf! Maybe they’re not as potent down the field as the preseason had made it seem. Watch for Jackson and Floyd to tumble down the rankings this week as they combined for 7 points. Buy low if you can.
In other news, Vikings D looked very good. Jared Allen was dominating coverage, pressure, and everything between.
Colts – Texans
I have only two points to make about this game. 1. Wow, Indy is screwed. This will be their worst game of the season, however. See if you can buy up Reggie Wayne. 2. Just like with Mathews over Tolbert, I say Tate over Ward and he proved it in this game. Don’t be too surprised if Foster/Tate becomes a timeshare of sorts.
Titans – Jaguars
MJD did well in this game and Chris Johnson did nothing. I’m expecting both of these guys to be out or limited by Week 5, so if you drafted them you’ve got to play them. I was swayed on Kenny Britt, however. If he can stay unsuspended, Hasselbeck may just be able to make a star out of him.
Lions – Buccaneers
Headline if I were a newspaper editor: “Young exciting teams play boring game.” Yeah, that probably wouldn’t sell. I guess that’s why I’m not an editor for the newspaper… Lots of average scores in this one. Stafford was great, Calvin Johnson was great, Freeman was hurt, Best was good, Mike Williams was good, and LeGarrette Blount was not good. Don’t let any of this info adjust your opinion on any of these guys.
Panthers – Cardinals
Well, it looks like Cam Newton should’ve been number one overall in fantasy too, right? I mean, if he averages that score he’ll have better points than Michael Vick did last year! The Panthers are going to Disney World! Dynasty! Hall of Fame career! Well… perhaps we’d better wait for Week 2 first. Unless you’re really hurt at QB, I’d let somebody else run the risk.
Seahawks – 49ers
Ted Ginn Jr. returned a punt and a kick for TDs to make this close game look like a blowout. As far as I can tell, no one else on this team really did anything other than what you’d expect. If Ginn plays his best this year, my bet is he returns four total TDs. Two have already gone. I wouldn’t waste a waiver pick on him.
Giants – Redskins
Giants are starting to look pretty rough. You don’t want to overemphasize one week, but it doesn’t seem like they can compete for the NFC East title this year. I still think Eli will get it together to be worth starting if you took him late. Oh, and I would pick up Fitzpatrick before I would pick up Grossman.
Cowboys – Jets
Romo and Bryant remind me of Romo and Owens. Romo is the exact same and, as for the diva wide receiver, Dez Bryant may well be even more gifted than TO in his prime. However, Dez doesn’t seem to have mastery of his own body and is often hurt, as eventually happened in this game. The actual injury report states a bruise, but he looked more hampered than that. It’s a shame too, because if there is any wide receiver that can dominate Darrelle Revis, it’s Dez Bryant. When he was healthy, he absolutely owned Revis.
The Cowboys D looked very good for most of this game, and if Shaun Lee (defensive MVP of this game) had been able to get one more yard then they would’ve nearly doubled their D/ST point total and no one would be calling for Romo’s head. Cowboys D could be an excellent pickup or start next week.
One of my favorite parts of TV coverage of NFL games is the obscure, meaningless, hyper-specific stats they use to try and prove points that are false. Try this one on for size: “Mark Sanchez is so clutch in the playoffs, he’s the first quarterback since 2002 to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive games in the playoffs.” First, Sanchez doesn’t beat quarterbacks. His defense beats quarterback. Second, how many guys have played Manning then Brady consecutively in the playoffs since 2002? Third, 2002 was less than a decade ago. That’s not that impressive. Stats never lie, but never trust a statistician.
Patriots – Dolphins
I’m going to make this one short as there isn’t a lot to say. Tom Brady (517 yards, 4 TDs) and the Patriots are crazy good. The Dolphins aren’t as bad as we thought they were. Brandon Marshall is a top-5 WR talent and Chad Henne is good enough to make him a top-10 WR this season if they can get on the same page. Welker didn’t have that crazy of a game if you take away his one great reception. A 99-yard TD will make a good fantasy day look absolutely dominant.
Raiders – Broncos
Great player of no direct fantasy consequence: Shane Lechler. Best punter in NFL history. Raiders also have Sebastian Janikowski, my favorite current NFL kicker and maybe one of the best all-time at his position as well. This one seemed like typical Raiders-Broncos football: great talent with no discipline. A total of 25 penalties were committed. The Raiders seem to take pride in stupid fouls. McFadden looked explosive when carrying the ball, but the team is too inconsistent overall to facilitate the great running game that Run DMC could bring. Right now I’m just hoping that McFadden’s neck is okay.
By: Dave Stringer — September 9, 2011 @ 10:02 am
1. The big news of the week is that the consecutive games streak of Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will end at 227 due to his lengthy recovery from neck surgery in the spring. While that news was shocking given Manning’s impressive durability, the bigger shock was a pair of reports indicating that Manning may be out for the entire season. The Colts quickly refuted those reports, denying that Manning had recently undergone an additional surgery on his neck. As it turns out, Manning had cervical fusion surgery on his neck Thursday. What isn’t up for debate is that there is no certainty with regards to the amount of time required to recover from damaged nerves so while it is premature to rule Manning out for the season, it does remain a distinct possibility. Manning owners need to make alternate plans with his replacement Kerry Collins a decent option.
 Full workload for CJ in Week 1? 2. Running back Chris Johnson ended his holdout last week and will be in the Titans Week 1 starting line-up. The question is whether or not he will get a full workload. Don’t bank on it. With head coach Mike Munchak in his first year, the last thing he wants on his resume is having Johnson get injured from giving him too many carries after having been through a handful of practices. Munchak has said that the Titans “won’t get carried away” in the number of carries Johnson gets so look for him to get no more than 20 touches during their Week 1 game against the Jaguars.
3. With his job clearly on the line in Jacksonville, Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio chose to release presumed opening day starter David Garrard in favor of veteran journeyman Luke McCown. Garrard’s release was met with shock but in essence the move ended up occurring sooner than expected so it shouldn’t have registered as such a big surprise. When the Jaguars used their 1st round pick on Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, Garrard’s days in Jacksonville were numbered and a poor preseason showing caused Del Rio to cut him loose. An $8-million salary for the current year didn’t help matters and the savings surely will help Del Rio’s case with team owner Wayne Weaver, who has struggled financially given the size of the Jacksonville market.
4. If you’re looking for the fantasy implications of Garrard’s release, it’s pretty simple and can be summed up as bad news for all Jacksonville offensive skill-position players. McCown is a veteran journeyman with seven career starts in seven seasons. Look for him to quickly find himself on the bench behind Gabbert and Gabbert’s insertion into the starting line-up is hardly going to be an elixir for the Jaguars offense. He would be starting on opening day had he had even a decent preseason. With McCown and Gabbert at quarterback, the Jaguars figure to have one of the worst offenses in the league in 2011.
5. Daniel Thomas owners likely breathed a sign of relief when the Dolphins released Larry Johnson since his signing late in the preseason appeared to be an indication that the Dolphins were not prepared to enter the season with Thomas as the top backup behind starter Reggie Bush. With the late breaking news yesterday that Miami had re-signed Johnson, it appears the initial fears of Thomas owners were well-founded with reports of Thomas suffering a slight hamstring injury possibly little more than cover to help shield the rookie from more negative press coverage. Look for Johnson to open the season behind Thomas but with head coach Tony Sparano needing a strong season to save his job, he won’t wait long to move Johnson up the depth chart if Thomas continues to struggle like he did for most of the preseason.
6. With the Rams in need of a true number one wide receiver, they were quick to sign former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker early in free agency in the hope he would rebound from a lackluster 2010 season. He had a solid preseason and will open the season in the starting line-up with Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, who emerged as one of the league’s top threats out of the slot last year. While Sims-Walker figures to get a shot to re-establish himself with the Rams, it’s worth noting that the team re-signed Mark Clayton, who was on his way to having a career year in St. Louis before suffering a torn patellar tendon in Week 5. During the first four games of 2010, Clayton was the team’s top threat at wide receiver, catching 22 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If Sims-Walker or Gibson struggles, look for Clayton in the Rams starting line-up shortly after he returns from the physically unable to perform list.
7. When Ryan Williams was lost for the season with a knee injury, it was only a matter of time before Arizona replenished their running back depth chart with an established veteran runner. Starter Beanie Wells has a lengthy injury history and top backup LaRod Stephens-Howling lacks the size necessary to handle a heavy workload. The team chose to sign Chester Taylor, who spent the 2010 season in Chicago. The question is – how much does Taylor have left? He was the first player to average less than 2.4 yards per carry on more than 100 carries since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970, gaining just 267 yards and three touchdowns on 112 carries. Look for Stephens-Howling to be Wells’ primary backup with Taylor earning a share of the work if Wells were to suffer an injury.
8. The Chiefs passing attack suffered a big blow with the loss of tight end Tony Moeaki for the year to a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Kansas City was expecting for Moeaki to build on an impressive rookie campaign and was valued for his versatility in lining up as a tight end, in the slot or out of the backfield. Neither Leonard Pope (career highs of 23 receptions, 238 yards and five touchdowns back in 2007) or Jake O’Connell (five receptions in two years) are receiving threats which will allow opposing safeties to double team wide receiver Dwayne Bowe or drop down in the box to shut down Jamaal Charles in the running game. Suffice it to say that head coach Todd Haley will need to get creative to make up for Moeaki’s loss.
By: Dave Stringer — August 23, 2011 @ 1:20 pm
The Cardinals expected the worst when rookie running back Ryan Williams went down in the team’s first preseason game and their fears were realized. The team’s 2nd round selection in this year’s draft suffered a ruptured patella tendon that will cause him to miss the 2011 season and he was placed on injured reserve.
Dissatisfied with the platoon of Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells, Arizona had traded up in the 2nd round to acquire Williams. The former Virginia Tech star had performed well enough in training camp that the Cardinals were comfortable enough with their running back depth chart to trade Hightower to the Redskins.
With Williams out, diminutive LaRod Stephens-Howling becomes the team’s top backup with a number of undrafted rookie free agents after him on the depth chart. That has to be a concern for Cardinals management given Wells well-documented injury history at Ohio State and last year in Arizona when he missed time due to torn meniscus in his knee.
A number of veteran free agent running backs remain unsigned and it seems likely that the Cardinals will look to replenish their running back depth chart at some point during the preseason.
Fantasy Impact
 Beanie: The lead man. Wells becomes the lead man in Arizona with an outside chance of becoming one of the few workhorse backs in the league. There is little proven talent behind him and of the veteran running backs currently available in the free agent market, none are likely to come to Arizona and steal his job.
That means Beanie is likely in line for a significant workload (approaching the 300-carry mark) in 2011 provided he can stay healthy – something that’s been difficult for him to do.
He came to the NFL with the injury prone label and appeared to shake that off in his rookie season by playing in all 16 games. However, he missed three games last season and most of another contest with some reports indicating the team felt he was taking too long to get back in the line-up.
So what can we expect from Wells? A breakout season is unlikely given it is quarterback Kevin Kolb’s first year as an NFL starter as well as his first year in Arizona and the state of the team’s offensive line.
A more realistic scenario would Wells emerging as a solid RB2 but his injury history wouldn’t make this a comfortable proposition for his fantasy owners either. Consider Wells a great option as one of the first RB3’s off your draft board.
As for LaRod Stephens-Howling, he clearly gets the biggest uptick in fantasy value going from being undraftable to the top backup behind an injury prone player. That scenario plays out if the Cardinals don’t add a veteran running back.
If a draft were being held today, Stephens-Howling would be worth a late round pick given the likelihood of the Cardinals acquiring another player to challenge him. Whoever is Wells’ backup figures to get a decent amount of work considering how head coach Ken Whisenhunt has rotated the team’s running backs over the past few seasons.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:48 pm
QB Kevin Kolb
 Entering 2010, the future looked bright for Kolb after the Eagles jettisoned Donovan McNabb in order to make room for Kolb in the starting lineup. The decision to go with Kolb was based largely on his production in a pair of 2009 starts, where he threw for 718 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. That production, along with a solid supporting cast in terms of skill position players and the offensive line, made Kolb a darling for fantasy pundits, many of whom were expecting him to have a breakout season. The hype lasted two quarters into the season before Kolb went down to injury, losing his starting position to Michael Vick in the process. With his trade to the Cardinals in the offseason, Kolb gets another chance to start, albeit not with the same weapons that exist in Philadelphia. Kolb was schooled in the West Coast offense and is an accurate passer on short patterns, but he hasn’t shown the same accuracy on deep passes. With no proven starting wide receiver opposite Larry Fitzgerald and with an aging Todd Heap at tight end, expecting Kolb to be a consistent fantasy producer is a stretch. He’s a QB2 for 2011.
RB Beanie Wells
Wells has been a big disappointment for the Cardinals since they took him in the first round of the 2009 draft, but he figures to get a chance at redemption in 2011 simply because there’s nobody left to share the load with him. After using a second-round pick on Ryan Williams, the Cardinals shipped Tim Hightower to the Redskins, only to watch Williams suffer a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. That leaves Wells as the team’s starter by default, with only LaRod Stephens-Howling around to steal touches. While Wells gets a great opportunity to solidify a starting spot this season, there is little evidence to suggest that he’s capable of being productive over a full 16 games. And that’s why you can expect the Cardinals to bring in a veteran runner as insurance. Although Wells has only missed three games in two years, he has been banged up on a consistent basis, averaging 4.1 yards per carry for his career while showing little as a receiver. Even with Hightower and Williams out of the picture, Wells rates as no better than an RB3 in 2011.
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling
Stephens-Howling was expected to be an afterthought in the Cardinals rushing attack when training camp started, but he is now suddenly the team’s top backup to Beanie Wells. With the Cardinals’ decision to trade Tim Hightower to the Redskins and with Ryan Williams’ season-ending knee injury, Stephens-Howling figures to get plenty of use as a third-down and chance-of-pace back. However, at just 5’9” and 180 pounds, he lacks the necessary size to handle the lead-back role, and it remains to be seen whether the Cardinals will bring in a veteran back to help Wells share the load. But as of now, Stephens-Howling shapes up as a sleeper pick for 2011. He is worth grabbing in all leagues.
WR Larry Fitzgerald
With a new eight-year, $120-million contract, Fitzgerald enters 2011 as the league’s highest paid wide receiver and, based on his production in 2010, he’s worth every penny. With Kurt Warner having retired and his expected replacement, Matt Leinart, released in the preseason, Fitzgerald was left to catch passes from the erratic Derek Anderson and a pair of rookies. No matter, as Fitzgerald still managed to haul in 90 passes for 1,137 and six touchdowns. While that was a far cry from his production with Warner at the controls, there is hope with Kevin Kolb at quarterback that Fitzgerald can return to the double-digit touchdown production he had in four of the five years prior to 2010. Kolb isn’t an elite deep passer, but Fitzgerald’s leaping ability, sure hands, and skill at adjusting in the air to badly thrown balls will help make up for that. He shapes up as a solid WR1 in 2011 with an outside chance of finishing the season as a top-five fantasy wideout.
WR Andre Roberts
With Steve Breaston having left for the Chiefs via free agency, the Cardinals go from having one of the top groups of wide receivers in the league in 2009 to a depth chart full of question marks behind Larry Fitzgerald. The front-runner to fill the gaping hole opposite Fitzgerald is Roberts, a 2010 third-round pick who didn’t even play major college ball. He did play reasonably well as a rookie, however, catching 24 passes for 307 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but his playing time was as much to do with injuries to other players as it was with his own performance. Roberts has better-than-average speed and decent size but his route running needs work, and he caught just 49 percent of his targets a year ago. Expecting him to step up to the 800-yard mark isn’t realistic considering how raw he was coming out of college. Look for Roberts to split time opposite Fitzgerald. He is not worth owning other than in dynasty leagues.
WR Early Doucet
Doucet has disappointed in the desert since being taken in the third round of the 2008 draft. He is a physical player with decent size at 6’0” and 212 pounds, but he has been a tease, not yet able to put together a solid season. Injuries have been the main problem, with Doucet dressing for just 26 out of a possible 48 regular-season games and never playing in more than ten in any one season. A hip injury slowed him down last year as he caught just 26 of 59 targets for 291 yards and a touchdown. He will battle with Andre Roberts and possibly Stephen Williams for a starting spot, but Doucet needs to take a big step up in production in order to be a worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.
WR Stephen Williams
Williams was the darling of the Cardinals’ training camp in 2010, having a great preseason and earning a roster spot as an undrafted free agent. He followed that up with a dud of a regular season, with the 6’5”, 208-pound Williams catching only nine of 21 targets for 101 yards and no touchdowns. The Cardinals like Williams, but the Toledo grad is likely a year away from being a serious contender for significant playing time. Consider him waiver wire material, but keep your eye on him to see if his playing time increases around the midseason mark.
TE Todd Heap
In what qualified as one of the first major shocks of the preseason, the Ravens unexpectedly axed both Heap and wide receiver Derrick Mason, tossing both players into the free agent pool. Despite reports indicating that the Ravens were interested in re-signing Heap at a reduced price, he signed on with Arizona and will open the season as their starter in 2011. He looked good at times in 2010, displaying some big-play potential while averaging a career-high 15.0 yards per catch. Unfortunately, he missed most of one game and all of three others when he was injured in Week 13 against Pittsburgh, bringing back the injury concerns that plagued him earlier in his career. To be fair, he has played 16 games in four of the past six seasons, so the injury issue isn’t as big as it is made out to be. In Arizona, Heap enters a great situation, playing for a quarterback in Kevin Kolb that loves to throw to the tight end and for a team that doesn’t possess a clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver. Consider Heap an upper-tier fantasy backup for the coming season.
TE Robert Housler
If you’re looking for a tight end prospect for your dynasty league, Housler just might be your man. At 6’5” and 248 pounds, the rookie out of Florida Atlantic possesses solid size and was the fastest tight end at the combine, running the 40 in 4.55 seconds. While Todd Heap was signed to start for Arizona this year, he will be 32 by the beginning of the 2012 season and is entering his tenth year in the league, having missed most of two seasons with significant injuries. The Cardinals have committed long-term to quarterback Kevin Kolb, who likes to dump it off to tight ends, making Housler an intriguing fantasy prospect.
By: Dave Stringer — August 22, 2011 @ 8:45 am
QB Alex Smith
 Smith gets yet another lease on his NFL career with new head coach Jim Harbaugh now leading the 49ers. Not wanting to trust the offense to a rookie and not willing to risk acquiring a high-profile veteran, Harbaugh saw the tape of Smith and decided that he could work with him. Reminds me of all those people who think they can turn around a struggling business. What are you adding to the mix? Why are you so smart? Jim, how are you going to make Alex what he has yet to be—a solid NFL quarterback? Smith’s strength is his ability to move in the pocket and extend plays, but that doesn’t mean much because his accuracy isn’t very good, particularly on deep passes. Look for him to hold off rookie second-round pick Colin Kaepernick in the battle to be the opening-day starter, but there’s no guarantee Smith will hold onto the job for the entire year. He’s a low-end fantasy backup, at best.
QB Colin Kaepernick
The 49ers used a 2011 second-round pick on Kaepernick, making him their quarterback of the future. Or maybe that’s quarterback of 2011. While Kaepernick is a bit raw, he has good arm strength and athleticism, and incumbent starter Alex Smith has done little during his six years in the league to prove that he is an NFL starter. Not so encouraging, however, was the team’s decision to sign veteran retread Josh McCown in mid-August. Kaepernick may emerge as bye-week filler by midseason, but he is not worth drafting in redraft leagues. Although he does make for a decent prospect in dynasty leagues.
RB Frank Gore
Gore is coming off an injury-marred 2010 season in which he saw action in just ten games because of a hip injury in Week 12 that put him on injured reserve. Prior to the injury, he was well on his way to another solid season, with 853 rushing yards, 452 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in eleven games. Looking at the sad state of San Francisco’s offense, that should be considered good production. Gore remains the focal point of the San Francisco offense—equally effective at running the ball and as a receiver. He remains a workhorse back as he enters his seventh year in the league, averaging 21.4 touches, 113.7 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game since taking over as the team’s starting running back in 2006. That’s consistency. While Gore hasn’t played a full 16-game slate since 2006, he generally only misses a game or two per season. That’s not a bad trade-off to have such a highly consistent, workhorse back in your fantasy lineup.
RB Anthony Dixon
The 49ers’ sixth-round pick in the 2010 draft, Dixon was pressed into action as a rookie when Frank Gore suffered a hip injury in Week 12. Splitting time with Brian Westbrook, Dixon largely disappointed, as his lack of speed and his inability to make tacklers miss were apparent. Over his final six games, Dixon had 219 rushing yards and one touchdown on 60 carries, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. He also doesn’t bring much to the table in the passing game, averaging one reception per game over that stretch. Dixon will need to beat out rookie fourth-round pick Kendall Hunter to remain the team’s top backup; furthermore, and Gore rarely comes off the field. Even though Gore generally misses a game or two each season, there’s no need to handcuff him with Dixon unless Dixon beats out Hunter. Even then, it might not be worth it.
RB Kendall Hunter
Having watched Anthony Dixon struggle in trying to replace Frank Gore last season, the team used a fourth-round pick on Hunter. While Dixon is a big back who lacks speed, Hunter is the polar opposite, a smaller player defenders don’t want to face in the open field. At 5’7” and 199 pounds, there are some doubts as to whether Hunter could handle a lead role in the NFL, concerns backed up by his injury issues in college. However, he clearly has more upside than Dixon, and that makes him worth grabbing as Gore’s handcuff if he wins the backup job.
WR Braylon Edwards
After his 2007 breakout season in Cleveland in which he caught 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns, Edwards struggled mightily over the next two seasons, catching just 90 passes for 1,557 yards and seven touchdowns. Despite his inconsistent hands, he had a bit of renaissance season in 2010, becoming a big-play threat for the Jets while making 53 receptions for 904 yards and seven touchdowns. With the free-agent market for his services drying up, Edwards signed a one-year deal with the 49ers in the hope of having a big season and cashing out as a free agent in 2012. The issue for Edwards in San Francisco is that starting quarterback Alex Smith has never proven capable of connecting with his wide receivers on deep patterns. His preferred option on those plays is tight end Vernon Davis, and that is not expected to change in 2011. Edwards’ upside in 2011 is similar to what he produced in 2010, making him a WR3. The more likely scenario, however, is that Edwards sees a reduction in his big plays and touchdowns. Grab him as a low-end WR3 if you have to, but get more comfortable with using him off your bench as a bye-week fill-in or an injury replacement.
WR Michael Crabtree
Crabtree enters his third year in the league coming off a disappointing 2010 season. He never seemed to get on the same page with quarterback Alex Smith, finishing the year with 55 receptions for 741 yards and six touchdowns and catching just 54.5 percent of his targets. And how is that going to get better with Crabtree expected to miss most, if not all, of the preseason with a foot injury? Also not helping Crabtree’s fantasy appeal is Smith’s reliance on tight end Vernon Davis, the team’s addition of Braylon Edwards, and the play of Ted Ginn in training camp (okay, we’ve heard that story before). Keep your expectations realistic. Crabtree is clearly a talented player, but he remains an enigma, and you have to wonder if the light will ever go on for him. He is almost certainly going to be drafted before he should be, but if he does get pushed to the late rounds of your draft, he is worth grabbing as a WR5.
WR Josh Morgan
Over his past two years in the 49ers’ starting lineup, Morgan has been a serviceable performer but nothing more. Despite Michael Crabtree struggling and the 49ers often playing from behind, Morgan had just 80 targets, catching 44 of those for 698 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Braylon Edwards joining the team, there is a solid chance that Morgan will lose his starting job when (or if) Michael Crabtree returns to health. Even if Crabtree remains injured, it’s hard to project Morgan outperforming his 2010 production, which translated into just 5.1 fantasy points per game. While new head coach Jim Harbaugh may see something in Morgan that his predecessors didn’t, that seems unlikely. Morgan is a WR5 at best in 2011.
WR Ted Ginn Jr.
Reports out of San Francisco indicate that Ginn was lighting it up in training camp. Kind of how he lit it up at Ohio State and impressed NFL scouts at the 2007 rookie combine? Was he lighting it up against the team’s starting cornerbacks or the 90th man on the roster? Or maybe it was the water boy? Do I sound skeptical? Read this: 12 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown in 2010. Enough said.
TE Vernon Davis
Outside of Frank Gore, there’s only one 49er worth having on your fantasy roster, and that is Davis. While he wasn’t nearly as dynamic last year as he was in 2009—when he caught 78 passes for 956 yards and 13 touchdowns—Davis still finished 2010 as the third-ranked fantasy tight end, chalking up 56 receptions for 914 yards and seven touchdowns. There is a good chance he improves on those numbers in 2011 with new head coach Jim Harbaugh bringing his version of the West Coast offense to San Francisco. Look for Harbaugh to feature Davis, using him on more short and intermediate patterns than he’s seen in previous years. Davis also remains the league’s premier tight end on deep passes. If only the 49ers could get some more consistent play from the quarterback position! Davis ranks in the top tier at tight end and could emerge as the top-ranked at his position if quarterback Alex Smith can turn in a career year in 2011.
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