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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — August 7, 2011 @ 11:54 am
QB Matt Ryan
Is this the year Ryan realizes his potential and becomes the top-notch starting quarterback many anticipated when he was taken with the third overall pick in 2008? Well, top-notch fantasy starting quarterback, I should say. As a starting NFL quarterback, Ryan has been nothing short of magnificent, turning the moribund Falcons into a perennial winner during his three-year stay in Atlanta, which included last year’s conference-leading 13-3 record. As a fantasy starter, he’s left something to be desired, however, with the Falcons’ conservative approach holding him back. At the 2011 draft, the team traded multiple picks to move up to the sixth spot so they could grab wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones should provide the Falcons with a nice compliment to Roddy White after the underperforming Michael Jenkins was shipped out. That bodes well for Ryan, as does the return of tight end Tony Gonzalez and the situation at running back—where the team has lost depth with the departure of Jerious Norwood. The question is whether Ryan and the Falcons will change their stripes. Head coach Mike Smith prefers a conservative offensive game plan, and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey doesn’t abandon the run quickly. In addition, Ryan hasn’t taken many risks downfield. Ryan ranks as a top-quality QB2 with upside if the chains come off, but that isn’t as likely as some believe.
RB Michael Turner
The fantasy shine has come off Turner a little bit since his outstanding first season as a Falcon in 2008, when he rushed for 1,699 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. That was quarterback Matt Ryan’s rookie year, and the team chose to lean heavily on Turner and the running game. Over the past two seasons, Turner has been good, averaging 83 rushing yards and 0.81 touchdowns per game. Last season, he finished as the ninth-ranked fantasy running back with 1,371 rushing yards and had his third consecutive season with double-digit touchdowns (12). The concerns with Turner are the heavy workload he has endured as a Falcon (averaging nearly 21 carries per game) and the team’s addition of wide receiver Julio Jones. While Jones is the shiny new toy, Turner is the proven producer, and the Falcons love to run. With Jason Snelling, Gartrell Johnson, and scatback Jacquizz Rodgers (the team’s fifth-round pick) behind Turner, look for him to once again top the 20-carry-per-game mark. Unfortunately, the heyday of 2008 isn’t likely to return, and Turner’s poor receiving skills limit him somewhat. Consider him a solid, low-end RB1 in 2011, and move him down a couple of notches in PPR leagues.
RB Jason Snelling
After testing the free agent waters and getting a lukewarm response from St. Louis, Kansas City, and the New York Giants, Snelling has returned home, signing a one-year contract to be Michael Turner’s backup. Snelling is a decent inside runner and possess better receiving skills than Turner but he is destined to be handcuff material unless injury provides him an opportunity.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers
I’m going to be honest, I don’t like scatbacks. Never have, never will. For fantasy purposes, that is. But what’s not to like about watching a Darren Sproles scoot by frustrated, burly defenders on his way to the house? Unfortunately, these guys are never trusted by their coaches to handle a big role in a team’s offense because of injury concerns. Rodgers is a sexy pick; he had some great production at Oregon State and he will likely make some highlight reels in the NFL. But he won’t make enough of them. He replaces Jerious Norwood as the team’s change-of-pace, third-down back, and Norwood’s production when he was healthy is Rodgers’ upside. Norwood’s best season saw him post 8.0 fantasy points per game. At best, Rodgers may emerge as a decent flex option in larger leagues.
WR Roddy White
You know what’s tough? Trying to find something interesting to write about the best fantasy producers, guys like Roddy White. I don’t need to convince you that White is a trustworthy pick and a great addition to your roster. You know that. You know that some rookie hotshot isn’t going to have a major impact on his targets. You know that tight end Tony Gonzalez really slowed down as the 2010 season wore on. You know that White led the league in targets in 2010 after finishing second in 2009. You know that he was the third-ranked fantasy wide receiver last season and that the two guys ahead of him (Brandon Lloyd and Dwayne Bowe) aren’t likely to repeat their performances. And you know that Michael Turner doesn’t have a proven backup on the roster, he can’t catch, and he has to come off the field at some point. What’s left to know? Barring injury—and White has never missed a game in his six-year career—he’s a lock to finish in the top five at wide receiver, and it will be no surprise if he finishes number one.
WR Julio Jones
With a hole opposite Roddy White, the Falcons gave up a bundle of 2011 and 2012 draft picks to move up to the sixth spot to select Jones. That tells you that they think he is good and that they need him. It might be assumed that, having given up so many picks, the Falcons are planning a big role for Jones this season, and that he shapes up as a solid fantasy wide receiver. Not so fast. The Falcons love to run, they have arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Roddy White, and tight end Tony Gonzalez remains a great option on short routes and as an outlet valve. In addition, Atlanta is coming off a 14-2 season and aren’t very likely to be playing from behind much in 2011. And we haven’t even gotten to the “rookie wide receivers rarely produce” angle. You need opportunity to rack up fantasy points, and Jones isn’t likely to get much of one. While he looks like Tarzan and may play like Tarzan one day, it won’t be in 2011. Consider him a great addition to your dynasty league roster, but he’s worth nothing more than a late-round pick in redraft leagues.
WR Harry Douglas
Douglas is expected to open the season as the team’s slot receiver, but he is coming off a disappointing 2010 season where he caught just 22 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown. The really disappointing stat, however, was that he caught a woeful 41.5 percent of his targets despite being targeted mainly on short and intermediate routes. Look for him to have a similar or reduced role in 2011, provided he holds on to his roster spot.
 The writing is on the wall. TE Tony Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been a dynamic tight end throughout his career and is clearly headed to the Hall of Fame, but the writing on the wall can’t be ignored. He is in serious decline. Sure, he caught 70 passes for 656 yards and six touchdowns last season, but if you watched the Falcons play, it was obvious he’s no longer the player he once was. His reception and yardage totals were the lowest since his second season in the league (14 years ago), his yard per reception was the lowest of his career, and his targets were his lowest since 2006. Of the 24 tight ends in the league with 40 or more receptions, Gonzalez had the third-lowest yards per reception. He’s a backup, folks, and probably a low-end one at that.
By: Dave Stringer — August 6, 2011 @ 12:45 pm
Set adrift by the New York Jets, Braylon Edwards has finally found a new team. With the free agent market for his services not matching his expectations, Edwards will reportedly sign a one-year deal with the 49ers.
 Is Edwards a good fit for Jim Harbaugh's west coast offense? In San Francisco, Edwards will immediately move into the starting line-up with Michael Crabtree out with a foot injury. If Crabtree is out for an extended period of time, Edwards will start opposite Josh Morgan, who will likely move to a reserve role when Crabtree returns.
Given their salary cap situation, the expectation entering free agency was that the Jets would have a difficult time re-signing Edwards and that proved to be the case.
With Edwards after a lucrative long-term extension, the Jets moved quickly to sign Plaxico Burress, agreeing to a $3-million, one-year deal with the former Giant. Reports indicate Edwards will receive just $3.5-million from San Francisco.
Fantasy Impact
Edwards decision to sign a short term contract with the 49ers in hopes of having a solid season and hitting the market as a free agent in 2012 is a curious one. While his size and speed would seem to indicate that is a good fit in the West Coast offense new 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh will run, Edwards has not proven adept at running short patterns, in part because of his questionable hands.
In New York, he was used almost exclusively on intermediate and deep routes. After a pair of disappointing seasons, he played well in 2010, making several big plays on his way to a 53-reception, 904-yard, seven-touchdown performance.
The issue for Edwards is that 49ers starting quarterback Alex Smith has never proven capable of connecting with his wide receivers on deep patterns. His preferred option on those plays is tight end Vernon Davis and that is not expected to change in 2011.
Edwards’ upside in 2011 is similar to what he produced in 2010 and that would make him a WR3. However, the more likely scenario is a reduction in big plays and touchdowns. Grab him as a low end WR3 if you have to but feel more comfortable with him coming off your bench as a bye week fill in and injury replacement.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:04 am
QB Matt Hasselbeck
 Unable to come to terms with the Seahawks on a new contract, Hasselbeck found a willing suitor in Tennessee. With the Titans, Hasselbeck will keep the starting quarterback job warm until rookie first-round pick Jake Locker is ready to take over. Hasselbeck is coming off a trying season in Seattle, where he put up the worst production of his career (when healthy for the majority of the season), throwing for 2,998 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 2011, look for him to retain the starter’s job as long as he is healthy and productive and the Titans remain in playoff contention. With his 34 touchdown passes and 44 interceptions over the last three years, and his having missed time due to injury in each of those seasons, and with the Titans not expected to challenge for a playoff spot, his time as Tennessee’s starting quarterback figures to be a short one. Furthermore, the team’s crop of receivers and tight ends hardly inspires confidence. If he can somehow overcome all of that, he may be suitable as your QB2. Otherwise, hands off.
QB Jake Locker
The future looked bright for Locker when the Titans used the eighth pick in the draft to acquire him; it looked even brighter when Kerry Collins announced his retirement. But things got decidedly darker when the team signed former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck, who will open the season as the starter. The book on Locker coming out of Washington was that he possessed all the necessary measurables and intangibles to be an NFL quarterback but he had an issue was his accuracy. So it was no surprise when Hasselbeck was signed. Given Hasselbeck’s injury history, however, look for Locker to end up under center at some point this season and to start by season’s end if the Titans are out of the playoff picture.
 Even with contract concerns, Johnson is a top-three fantasy RB. RB Chris Johnson
After his historic 2009 season in which he set the NFL record for most yards from scrimmage (2,509) and became just the sixth running back to rush for over 2,000 yards, there was strong sentiment that Johnson would see his production decline because of his heavy workload from the previous year. Sure enough, Johnson wasn’t as dynamic, and his production also suffered due to Tennessee’s poor quarterback play. His numbers dropped to 1,364 rushing yards and 245 receiving yards with 12 total touchdowns, bumping him down to fifth place in the fantasy running back rankings. Entering 2011, there are two concerns with taking Johnson at the top of fantasy drafts: his contract situation and the team’s passing game. CJ2K is holding out for a new contract, but that situation figures to get resolved since his salaries for the next two years are incommensurate with his production. The passing attack will be lead by former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck, but there are major question marks at wide receiver and tight end. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Johnson will be facing eight- and nine-man fronts on rushing downs. That means another otherworldly season is unlikely, but he is definitely a top-three fantasy running back, assuming he shows up for Week 1.
RB Javon Ringer
Ah, life is lonely as the top backup for the most dynamic running back in the league, and that is Ringer’s lot in life. The 2009 fifth-round pick played behind Chris Johnson and Lendale White in his rookie season before being elevated to Johnson’s main backup last year. Ringer carried the rock just 51 times but was solid in his limited touches, scoring two touchdowns and gaining 239 yards for a 4.7 yards-per-carry average. That makes him a must-have handcuff for owners of CJ2K. The Titans did use a fourth-round pick on Jamie Harper, however, so Ringer has competition for the spot. Keep that in mind on draft day.
WR Kenny Britt
After a solid 2009 rookie season with over 700 receiving yards, Britt was on the verge of establishing himself as one of the top receivers in the league when a hamstring injured sidelined him last year. He ended the season with 42 receptions for 775 yards and nine touchdowns despite playing in just 12 games. Even more impressive was that he put up most of his production in just ten games (he failed to get a target in Week 1 and had only one target in the game in which he was injured). In those ten games, he averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked him third in the league in that category behind only Brandon Lloyd and Hakeem Nicks. The talent is clearly there. Unfortunately, what’s not there is common sense. Since entering the league, Britt has missed OTAs because he was so out of shape, been ticketed for driving without a license, been arrested for outstanding traffic tickets, been accused of not paying a bail bond he obtained for a friend, been investigated for being in a bar fight, pleaded guilty to careless driving, and was charged for resisting arrest after plainclothes police officers suspected he was in possession of marijuana because they smelled it on him and saw him holding what appeared to be a marijuana cigar. The last incident occurred a day after he appeared in court on traffic charges. This all begs the questions: how did he get into Rutgers, and how did he manage to keep up his grades there? Or, why do I want a guy with this much risk (in addition to Tennessee’s risk at quarterback) on my fantasy team? I’m here to help answer those questions. I can’t speak for Rutgers, but as for the rest: You don’t want the risk. At this point, a suspension seems likely. Let others go there.
WR Nate Washington
The Titans acquired Washington as a free agent two years ago with the expectation that he would blossom in Tennessee with additional playing time. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened. And after five years in the league, it’s not about to. Washington had 40 receptions for 631 yards and three touchdowns in his last year with Pittsburgh and has averaged 44.5 receptions for 628 yards and six touchdowns with Tennessee. This guy is the quintessential definition of a one-trick pony. Run straight, Nate, clear out for CJ2K, and maybe we’ll chuck it to you deep. Yawn. Is that not enough evidence to avoid him in your draft? How’s this? Of his 104 fantasy points from last year, 44 came in three games. In the other 13 games, he averaged 4.6 points per game. Don’t be surprised if the rebuilding Titans go with one of their youngsters ahead of Washington in the starting lineup.
WR Damian Williams
Williams didn’t do much to excite fantasy owners in his 2010 rookie season, posting modest totals of 16 receptions for 219 yards. The former third-round pick rarely saw the field other than when injuries struck, but he has a decent chance of earning significant playing time this season. Randy Moss is gone, Kenny Britt could be suspended, Justin Gage hasn’t done enough to justify his 2011 salary of $3.5 million, and Nate Washington hasn’t done enough to justify his starting position. Williams figures to be the team’s top backup, at worst, and perhaps their go-to if Britt is suspended. He rates as a deep sleeper but one worth monitoring in the preseason.
WR Justin Gage
Coming off of two disappointing seasons, there’s a decent chance Gage will be on the unemployment line by opening day. In fact, barring a renegotiation or a suspension or an injury to Kenny Britt or Nate Washington, it’s almost a guarantee. The Titans will look to get 2010 third-round pick Damian Williams more involved this season, and that will likely spell the end of Gage’s run with the Titans.
TE Jared Cook
The Titans are not expected to re-sign Bo Scaife in 2011, so Cook will get his first chance for significant playing time. He possesses good size at 6’5” and 246 pounds and is one of the faster tight ends in the league. That’s why he was touted as an athletic tight end coming out of South Carolina in the 2009 draft, and that’s why the Titans used a third-round pick to acquire him. Unfortunately, he rarely saw the field until the tail end of the 2010 season. The results were promising, however, with Cook catching 15 of his 21 targets (a tidy completion percentage of 71.4) for 196 yards and one touchdown, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck likes throwing to tight ends, and you can expect the same from rookie Jake Locker if he is inserted into the starting lineup. Cook is definitely worth a look in dynasty leagues and as your TE2 in redraft leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 5, 2011 @ 1:00 am
QB David Garrard
 Garrard has been a model of consistency as a fantasy quarterback, posting point-per-game averages of 18.5, 17.8, 18.1, and 20.5 over the past four years. In 2010, he posted career highs in completion percentage (64.5 percent), touchdown passes (23), and rushing touchdowns (5). The problem is that he’s a solid yet unspectacular quarterback who has a nasty habit of throwing interceptions at key moments. And it doesn’t help that the team’s depth chart at wide receiver is looking a little thin with the departure of Mike Sims-Walker, who, although not very good in 2010, was still the team’s top threat at the position. The use of a first-round pick on Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert made it clear that Jacksonville does not envision Garrard as someone who can take them into a deep playoff run. So the issue is whether you think the Jaguars will remain in playoff contention, which would keep Gabbert planted on the bench. Don’t bank on it. That means you can’t bank on Garrard as your fantasy backup.
QB Blaine Gabbert
Recognizing David Garrard’s limitations, the Jaguars used their first-round pick to select Gabbert. The book on Gabbert coming out of college was that he is an athletic quarterback with a solid arm who struggled when under pressure and when forced to throw out of the pocket. Look for him to sit for most of the 2011 season, with a small number of starts possible near season’s end if the Jaguars are out of playoff contention. He’s not recommended for redraft leagues, but he’s a good option in dynasty formats.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
Despite dealing with a lingering knee injury last season and watching Rashad Jennings develop into a legitimate backup, MJD remained productive, gaining 1,323 yards on the ground to go along with 317 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns. It’s hard to complain about 14.7 fantasy points per game, but that represented a drop-off from his first full season as a starter in 2009 when he averaged 17.0 points per game. The drop-off was the result of both his missing two games with injuries and Jennings’ occasional short-yardage work. The issue for MJD in 2011 will be his recovery from offseason surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He apparently was cleared to begin running in mid-June, but he has stated that he has been running since early April. The mixed signals are a bit of a red flag. If healthy, he’s a lock to finish in the top ten at running back, so monitor his injury status and adjust accordingly.
RB Rashad Jennings
After barely seeing the field as a rookie, Jennings earned a decent amount of playing time in 2010 while subbing in for Maurice Jones-Drew. His touches doubled from 55 to 110 and he made the most of them, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game on 459 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and 223 receiving yards. Better yet, with MJD coming off a knee injury, the Jaguars are concerned about his workload and have indicated that they plan to increase Jennings’ touches even more in 2011. If that happens, Jennings could be a decent flex option in 12- and 14-team leagues that use that position. One thing is for certain: Jennings is a must-have handcuff for MJD owners given his production and MJD’s knee issues. It was also nice to see that Jennings can be productive in the starting lineup in his two starts in Weeks 16 and 17, where he posted 140 rushing yards, 63 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
WR Mike Thomas
With Jacksonville’s decision not to retain Mike Sims-Walker, Thomas becomes their de facto, No. 1 wide receiver. That isn’t to say that he’s a typical No. 1 receiver, but he is Jacksonville’s top option. Thomas has been productive during his first two years in the league, improving on his rookie stats of 48 receptions for 453 yards and a touchdown to 66 catches for 820 yards and four scores in 2010. Entering his third year, his career trajectory seems to indicate that a breakout season is coming. And it is possible, but it’s not likely. Thomas is on the smallish side at 5’8” and 198 pounds, and while he is shifty, he doesn’t have tremendous deep speed, he isn’t a great option in the red zone, and he has averaged a modest 11.2 yards per reception over his career. With more targets, Thomas should produce more, but he doesn’t have the talent to consistently beat double coverage, so he could be inconsistent. Consider him a WR3 and move him up a few notches in PPR leagues. Be excited but not too excited.
WR Jason Hill
How sad is the Jaguars’ situation at wide receiver? It’s so sad that Hill is projected to open the season as a starter based on his 2010 year-end production in which he caught 10 passes for 233 yards over the final four games. Prior to that, Hill had a total of 42 passes for 430 yards and four touchdowns since entering the league in 2007. I guess averaging 166 receiving yards a season gets you a spot in Jacksonville’s starting lineup. I know it doesn’t get you a spot in my fantasy team’s starting lineup. In fact, it won’t even come close to getting you a roster spot.
WR Jarett Dillard
The Jaguars liked Dillard coming out of Rice and used a fifth-round pick on him in the 2009 draft. He struggled as a rookie, catching just six passes for 106 yards before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He then missed all of 2010 with a stress fracture in one of his toes. Remarkably, he has a chance to produce in Jacksonville in 2011 because the Jaguars’ wide receiver depth chart is the worst in the league. Monitor him in training camp. There’s an outside chance he earns a starting job—and possibly a spot on your fantasy roster as a late-round draft pick (as in last-round draft pick).
WR Tiquan Underwood
He’s done virtually nothing in two years, failing to catch a pass in his rookie season and then making a mere eight receptions last year. If he were on any other team, I could stop writing now because he wouldn’t even have a shot at making the roster. But he’s a Jaguar, and their top two receivers are Mike Thomas and Jason Hill, so I need to add some more commentary on him. Is that enough? Can I stop now? Maybe he wins a starting spot over Hill. If he does, maybe he’s worth the last pick in your draft. Done.
TE Marcedes Lewis
There were a number of tight ends who put up surprisingly solid production in 2010, from the pair of rookies in New England (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez), to Jacob Tamme replacing Dallas Clark with the Colts, to Ben Watson having a career season in his first year with Cleveland. However, the biggest surprise was Lewis, who came out of nowhere to finish as the third-ranked fantasy tight end in his fifth season in the league. Entering 2010, he had career highs of 41 receptions, 589 yards, and two touchdowns (that’s right, two!). He blew those numbers away by catching 58 passes for 710 yards and ten touchdowns. Can he do it again in 2011? With Mike Sims-Walker out of the picture and the current starters at wide receiver being Mike Thomas and Jason Hill, Lewis will get plenty of targets. However, banking on another ten touchdowns is unrealistic. While he should remain a top-ten fantasy tight end, another top-three finish isn’t in the cards.
By: Dave Stringer — August 4, 2011 @ 3:11 am
QB Peyton Manning
 There’s consistency and then there’s Peyton Manning consistency. Peyton Manning consistency as in over 4,000 passing yards in 11 of 13 seasons (missing the mark in his rookie season and in 2005 when he was rested at the end of he year), at least 26 touchdown passes in every pro season and no missed starts over his entire career. Not good enough for you? How about 66 touchdown passes over the last two years with Manning throwing for a career-high 4,700 passing yards in 2010 and the third most yards of his career (4,500) in 2009. Is he getting better with age? Probably not but the Colts are throwing it more than ever with Manning throwing a career-high 679 times last season and 1,250 times over the past two seasons. The same cast of receivers and tight ends returns with the added bonus of tight end Dallas Clark and Austin Collie returning to health. That’s good news and so is the fact that the running game figures to struggle once again in 2011. Sure, a neck injury has caused him to be placed on the physically unable to perform list but does anybody doubt he will be ready on opening day? Manning is money in the banks, folks.
RB Joseph Addai
After posting a respectable 1,164 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009, Addai’s 2010 season was derailed due to a neck injury that caused him to miss eight games and post career lows in all the major offensive categories. While his history injury and modest production in a solid Colts offense would generally decrease the chances of him returning, Indianapolis chose to re-sign him as a free agent for two reasons: he is solid in several areas including pass protection and they don’t have another proven performer at the running back position. Donald Brown has been a bust, Mike Hart is too small and not very dynamic, Jarvarris James has a limited skill set and they aren’t about to hand a significant role to rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter and watch him blow a blitz protection. And when your passing game is as proficient as the Colts is, it’s not like you need a top tier running back to make the offense go. Before you turn Addai away, consider he has averaged 81 total yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game over his five-year career. Sounds like a solid RB3.
RB Donald Brown
After a disappointing rookie campaign in 2009, the Colts former 1st round pick got a chance to prove his worth in 2010 when Joseph Addai was out for eight games with a neck injury. Unfortunately for Brown, in those eight games, he topped 70 rushing yards once, had just 558 total yards and scored one touchdown. All Brown proved was that he wasn’t ready for prime time. Addai was re-signed as a free agent and the Colts used a 4th round pick on Delone Carter, who figures to get the short yardage work. While the Colts aren’t likely to give up on Brown after two seasons, the odds of him supplanting Addai or earning a significant role in the team’s offense are unlikely. He’s a good handcuff for Addai owners due to his injury history, provided he wins the job, of course.
 Is Wayne close to the fantasy cliff? WR Reggie Wayne
Entering 2010, there were some concerns that the talented wide receiver had slipped some due to his lack of production over the latter part of the 2009 season when he had just 385 yards and two touchdowns over the final seven games of the seasons. Those concerns were ill-founded as Wayne had another excellent season in 2010, catching a career-high 111 passes for 1,355 yards and six touchdowns as the Colts relied on the pass more than they ever had during Wayne’s career. However, once again, there are concerns about how much Wayne has left due to his mediocre production at the end of 2010. Over the final three games of the regular season, he caught 17 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown before being completely shut down by Darrelle Revis and the Jets in the Colts wild card playoff loss (one reception for one yard). However, this year, we won’t place so much stock in his end of season swoon. Consider him a mid-tier WR1 for 2011.
WR Pierre Garcon
Let’s run the numbers for Garcon’s first three seasons in the league. His receptions have increased from 4 to 47 to 67. Receiving yards have went from 23 to 765 to 784 and touchdowns have went from zero to four to six. I guess that means he’s due for another uptick in production in 2011. Unfortunately, Garcon’s actual play on the field doesn’t support such a conclusion. He has caught just 55.1% of his targets (56.7% in 2010, lowest amongst Colts receivers and tight ends) and could see a reduction in targets in 2011 with tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Austin Collie in the line-up. On the plus side, Garcon’s talent is undeniable, save for his questionable hands, and he caught five touchdowns passes in the final five games of the 2010 regular season and added another score in the team’s wild card game. Consider Garcon a low-end WR3 or high-end WR4 and a player with tremendous upside if he can improve his route running and reduce his drops.
WR Austin Collie
Collie was on an incredible role for the early part of 2010, near the league lead in several categories, before injuries ruined what was looking like a breakout season for the 2009 4th round pick. Over the first six weeks of the season, he caught 44 passes for 503 yards and six touchdowns. Concussions and a thumb injury caused him to miss of the Colts final ten games and there has to be real concern whether Collie can remain free of concussions for an entire season. That makes him a huge risk. On the plus side, Collie is productive when healthy and is one of quarterback Peyton Manning’s favorite targets, catching 80.5% of his targets last season and 66.7% in 2009. High risk, high reward. Bank on Collie missing time in 2011 and that drops him down to WR4 status.
WR Anthony Gonzalez
Entering the Colts 2010 training camp, Gonzalez was in a battle with Pierre Garcon to start outside and with Austin Collie to start in the slot position. Entering 2011, he’s in a battle with Blair White to be the team’s fourth wide receiver and it is likely a 50/50 proposition whether he even makes the team given that he’s been in the line up for three games over the past two seasons and suffered a season-ending knee injury last November. The 2007 1st round pick’s future looked bright after his first two years in the league as he caught nearly 72% of his targets over that period. However, his Colts future looks done and it is doubtful other teams will take a shot on a player with his lengthy injury history.
TE Dallas Clark
After posting a career year in 2009, Clark was solid again in 2010 before a wrist injury ended his season in Week 6. Prior to the injury, he had 37 receptions for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Although Jacob Tamme had an incredible run subbing in for Clark last year, he is clearly the backup and unlikely to steal significant playing time. Clark along with Austin Collie are quarterback Peyton Manning’s preferred options out of the slot and with Collie’s concussion issues, Clark could have that role to himself for much of 2011. Throw in the team’s questionable running back situation and an offensive line that often struggled to maintain blocks for deep passes and Clark figures to get plenty of looks. Outside of Antonio Gates, Clark is as solid of an option as you can find at tight end provided he can stay healthy.
TE Jacob Tamme
It’s all about opportunity and Tamme got his in 2010 when Colts starting tight end Dallas Clark suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Tamme entered the team’s starting line-up in Week 7 and the offense never missed a beat, catching 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns over the season’s final ten games. He averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch, which placed him third in that category amongst tight ends who played ten games and more, behind only Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. So, we know Tamme can produce but we also know that Clark so Tamme’s not going to get an opportunity to produce in Indianapolis. And we also know that if he gets traded, it will be to an offense that’s not as productive as the one the Colts have. Tamme’s not worth drafting but he’s definitely worth grabbing if Clark goes down.
By: Dave Stringer — August 2, 2011 @ 11:40 pm
 Burress (one-year deal) will have to prove it to the Jets and to fantasy owners. With a difficult salary situation and a hole at wide receiver opposite Santonio Holmes in their starting lineup, the New York Jets have reportedly reached a contract agreement with former Giant, Plaxico Burress.
The Jets lost backup receiver Brad Smith to division rival Buffalo and were apparently not willing to meet Braylon Edwards’ contract demands to secure his return to New York. That led to the signing of Burress, who will likely assume Edwards’ role as a red zone target and deep threat.
Burress returns to the league after a two-year absence stemming from a jail term related to shooting himself in the leg in a New York nightclub.
Although a significant market for his services seemed slim, there turned out to be remarkable interest, and the Jets were in the market for a veteran receiver. He was also recently linked to the Giants, Steelers, Eagles, Rams, and 49ers.
Fantasy Impact
Given his age and time away from football, Burress faces significant challenges in returning as the player he was when he left the league. He will get that opportunity with the Jets, but in New York’s heavily run-based offense, his upside would appear be limited. In fact, it’s basically what Edwards accomplished in 2010—53 receptions for 904 yards and seven touchdowns. And the odds of Burress getting there seem remote.
He is 34, he hasn’t played in two years, and he has never had the reputation as a truly dedicated player. Not to mention that the Jets still have Jerricho Cotchery as their top backup receiver, a player who has 64 starts over the past five seasons.
For Burress to move up to WR3 status, he will need to find the end zone plenty because he’s just not going to get close to 1,000 yards. He will likely become the team’s top red zone target, so he could reach seven or eight touchdowns, but banking on touchdowns is never a smart thing.
If you’re willing to gamble on those touchdowns and the inconsistency that comes with them, you could roll Burress as a WR3. But there are better options out there that possess far more upside.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:29 pm
 With Sproles in the mix, the Saints are now 4-deep at running back. Having traded Reggie Bush to the Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints were in the market for a versatile player to replace him. They found that player in former San Diego running back Darren Sproles.
Sproles figures to assume much of the role that Bush performed during his five-year career with the Saints. He joins a revamped Saints running back depth chart that includes Pierre Thomas, second-year player Chris Ivory, and rookie first-round pick Mark Ingram.
The Chargers franchised the diminutive Sproles for the 2009 season and retained his services last year, paying him close to $14 million over the past two seasons. Reports indicate the Saints will pay Sproles that amount over the next four years.
Because San Diego had a difficult salary-cap situation and had Mike Tolbert, 2010 first-round pick Ryan Mathews, and 2011 sixth-round pick Jordan Todman on their roster, it was expected that Sproles would leave as a free agent.
Fantasy Impact
While Sproles is a dynamic player, he doesn’t enhance an offense the way Bush did, and he is unlikely to have as big an impact in New Orleans as Bush had.
In addition, Lance Moore was re-signed to a lucrative contract extension this offseason. A receiver’s new contract may seem to have little bearing on a running back’s production, but Moore was essentially Bush’s replacement as a receiver, often posting big numbers when Bush was injured. While Sproles will certainly contribute in the passing game, Moore’s lucrative deal likely means that he will get more playing time in 2011 than in previous years.
In the run game for the past few seasons, Bush essentially split time with Pierre Thomas and a second running back (first Mike Bell and then Chris Ivory last year). With Sproles now on the roster, the Saints are four deep at running back. This ensures that, barring injuries, Sproles won’t be receiving a significant number of carries.
If the presence of Sproles in New Orleans doesn’t sound too exciting from a fantasy perspective, there’s a reason for that. It’s all about opportunity. It’s hard to see Sproles getting significant touches in New Orleans, and that leaves him as waiver wire material unless those above him on the depth chart become injured.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:11 pm
QB Matt Schaub
 After posting a career year in 2009, Schaub was subpar in 2010 as he suffered with Andre Johnson missing time, tight end Owen Daniels struggling to recover from a torn ACL, and the team’s rushing attack improving dramatically with the emergence of Arian Foster. Schaub’s passing stats dropped by 401 yards and he threw for five fewer touchdowns, going from 29 to 24. On the plus side, he remained healthy for the second year in a row, once again starting all 16 games for the Texans. In 2011, Daniels figures to be much improved, and Schaub should benefit if he and Johnson can avoid the injury bug. While a return to his 2009 form seems unlikely with Foster playing a major role, Schaub remains a solid fantasy starter. Consider him a notch below the big seven at quarterback and a good bet to repeat his 2010 production, with an outside chance to match his outstanding 2009 season.
 Outta my way! Arian Foster powered his way through 2010 and is now a candidate for the top pick in fantasy football. RB Arian Foster
In two years, Foster has gone from being an undrafted rookie free agent to being mentioned with the league’s top running backs. He’s even considered a potential top overall selection in fantasy drafts. When rookie second-round pick Ben Tate went down with a season-ending injury last preseason, Foster was already well on his way to relegating the rookie to backup status. Foster has good size and held up well in carrying a workhorse load for the Texans last season, as his 393 touches attest to. Better yet, the Texans were happy to hand him that role, leaving main backup Derrick Ward with only 58 touches on the year. Foster chalked up 1,616 rushing yards to go along with 604 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. You can put to rest any concerns that Tate is going to eat into Foster’s workload in a meaningful manner, or that Foster was a one-year wonder. He’s a safe top-three pick in 2011, and the case can certainly be made for taking him first overall when considering the quarterback issues in Minnesota and Tennessee.
RB Ben Tate
What a difference a year makes. Last season, the Texans used a second-round pick on Tate with the expectation that the rookie would immediately become their featured back. But a preseason ankle injury ended his rookie season, and Arian Foster took over to become the most productive running back in the league. In 2011, Tate will battle with Derrick Ward for the scraps that Foster leaves behind. Because Foster is a complete back, capable in both short-yardage situations and the passing game, those scraps won’t amount to much. Unless Tate wins the backup role over Ward outright, he isn’t even worth a low-round pick in redraft leagues.
WR Andre Johnson
For the first time in a couple of years, Johnson cannot be considered the surefire top fantasy wide receiver for the coming season. While he continued to play at a high level, he failed to top 1,500 receiving yards (as he had in 2008 and 2009). Of course, missing three games due to injury was the biggest problem; he averaged 93.5 yards per game in the games he actually played. Look for him to up his production in 2011, but the days of coming close to 1,600 receiving yards are likely over with Arian Foster eating into the Texans’ passing game production. While the case could be made for taking others as the first wide receiver off the board, Johnson should regain his title in 2011 as the most productive fantasy wide receiver.
WR Kevin Walter
Try as they might, the Texans are having a hard time getting Walter to play a reduced role with the team. Although Houston regularly touts the potential of Jacoby Jones, Walter continues to average about five targets a game, making both players marginal plays from a fantasy perspective. Walter caught 51 passes for 621 yards and five touchdowns last season, but a closer look reveals that 68 of his 92 fantasy points came in five games. Good luck figuring out when to use him. Regardless, with the team’s decision to hand Jones a lucrative long-term contract extension, things should change in 2011—just not in Walter’s favor. Walter lacks upside and is likely headed for a reduced role. He’s waiver wire material at best.
WR Jacoby Jones
The Texans apparently love Jones, and what’s not to love? He has good size and breakaway speed, and he can get open. Unfortunately, he doesn’t always run the right route and he doesn’t always catch the ball. Still, his numbers have improved in each of the last two years, and the team signed him to a three-year contract, so they may reward him with more playing time. However, with Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels clearly ahead of Jones in the pecking order, and Kevin Walter a worthy third wide receiver, Jones just isn’t likely to get enough looks to be a consistent contributor in 2011. He’s a late-round pick in redraft leagues.
TE Owen Daniels
The question with Daniels heading into 2010 was whether he had fully recovered from the torn ACL that ended his 2009 season. However, when the season started, he also had to deal with hamstring issues and never really regained the Pro Bowl form at which he played in 2009. Another year removed from the surgery, Daniels could easily rebound in 2011. Just look at how he finished his 2010 campaign. Over the final two weeks, he caught 13 passes for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns, hitting double-digit fantasy points in each game. Look for that to happen much more frequently in 2011. Consider him a lower-tier fantasy starter, but one who could make a surprise jump into the top five.
TE James Casey
Casey was regarded as a potential replacement for Owen Daniels when the Texans took him in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. However, despite Daniels’ missing significant time over the last two seasons, Casey rarely saw the field because he couldn’t beat out journeyman Joel Dreessen. Following the team’s decision to sign Daniels to a four-year contract extension, Casey’s value in dynasty leagues has been pretty much extinguished.
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