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Third-Year Wide Receivers Ready To Bust Out


By: — July 14, 2010 @ 11:36 am
Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis, Strategy

There is a theory in fantasy football that wide receivers are ready to break out during their third year in the league. At that point in their careers, they have fine-tuned their route running, developed chemistry with their quarterback, mastered the playbook, and added the muscle necessary to fight off jams at the line of scrimmage and fight for balls with NFL cornerbacks.

While the debate may rage whether the theory is real or not, the 2010 year certainly offers little hope in proving that it is correct.

That is partially because the 2008 draft did not yield a single wide receiver worthy of being taken in the first round. In addition, of the ten receivers taken in the second round of the draft, only DeSean Jackson has performed well above expectations.

Of the other nine second-round selections, one will spend 2010 on injured reserve, two are unlikely to be on the roster of their current teams, two are approaching bust status, and one will likely be fourth on his team’s depth chart.

Clearly, the prospects of this group of players collectively achieving solid fantasy production in 2010 is marginal at best. In fact, it would not be a total surprise if all of these players, other than Jackson, fail to bust out in 2010.

Here are the rankings with each player’s original team and draft position.

Tier One – Already There

1. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (2nd) – Remarkably, Jackson was the seventh wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft. If he doesn’t top a third-year wide receiver list, then stop reading.

Tier Two – Opportunity plus Ability

2. Mario Manningham, New York Giants (3rd) – Manningham was a flop as a rookie but came on strong in 2009 with 47 receptions for 882 yards and 5 touchdowns in only 14 games. He’s competing with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith for playing time, but the Giants have a healthy passing game so he should see plenty of targets.

3. Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (6th) – Garcon clearly has ability but only caught 51% of his targets last year, in comparison with Peyton Manning’s overall rate of 68.8%. He will compete with Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie for opportunities in 2010.

4. Earl Bennett, Chicago (3rd) – Gets the opportunity to play in a Mike Martz offense but is not a dynamic player, lacking speed and not suited to the slot. He’s here based on his projected stats, but there are lower-ranked players with much more upside.

5. Chaz Schilens, Oakland (7th) – Finally gets a decent quarterback in Jason Campbell but will have to fight off Darius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy for playing time. Again, another solid player who figures to produce but lacks upside.

6. Early Doucet, Arizona (3rd) – Doucet played well in the playoffs subbing for an injured Anquan Boldin and now gets an opportunity to replace him in the desert. It won’t be a surprise if he assumes Boldin’s role, with Steve Breaston maintaining his role from past seasons. Unfortunately, Matt Leinart is no Kurt Warner, which limits Doucet’s upside.

7. Eddie Royal, Denver (2nd) – Royal was a complete non-factor in his sophomore year after displaying plenty of potential as a rookie in 2008. With questions at quarterback and a pair of rookies in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, Royal will have to fight to earn playing time in Denver in 2010. He appears to be headed for a role in the slot, which limits his upside.

8. Devin Thomas, Washington (2nd) – With questions swirling around the availability of Santana Moss, due to his connection with a Canadian doctor charged with smuggling and distributing human growth hormone, there is a greater likelihood of a bigger role for Thomas in 2010. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done much when given an opportunity, with only 40 receptions for 445 yards and 3 touchdowns in two years.

9. Donnie Avery, St. Louis (2nd) – Avery has struggled with injuries, inconsistent route running, and poor quarterback play during his two years with the Rams. At this point, he doesn’t appear to have the ability to develop into a true number one receiver, and his likeliest role is that of a deep threat in St. Louis. With rookie Sam Bradford at quarterback, Avery’s prospects of a breakout season appear remote at best.

Tier Three – Fighting for Opportunity, Hasn’t Shown Much

10. Josh Morgan, San Francisco (6th) – Morgan burst onto the scene during training camp of his rookie year but appears to be the perfect example of a great practice player who fails to produce on game day. With Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis expected to get plenty of targets in 2010, Morgan lacks upside and likely opportunity.

11. Malcolm Kelly, Washington (2nd) – Kelly gets a fresh start with Mike Shanahan, but he’s basically done nothing to suggest that he’s going to develop in 2010, and he plays soft for his size.

12. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay (2nd) – While Nelson hasn’t justified his lofty draft status, he is a quality player caught up in a numbers game in Green Bay. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver holding down the starting spots, and James Jones having solidified his role as the third receiver, Nelson is left fighting for targets with the other Packers.

13. Steve Johnson, Buffalo (7th) – With Terrell Owens and Josh Reed out of the picture, Johnson is fighting with James Hardy to earn a starting role. Don’t be surprised if he earns it. Unfortunately, the Bills passing offense is pathetic.

14. James Hardy Buffalo (2nd) – Hardy has been a complete non-factor for two years in Buffalo and is behind in his development due to missing all of last offseason, in addition to part of the regular season, with an injury. Fortunately for Hardy, the Bills have little depth at wide receiver; otherwise he might be in danger of being released by Buffalo’s new management.

Tier Four – On the Roster, Fulfilling Marginal Role

15. Davone Bess, Miami (Undrafted) – He’s been productive for two years, but with Brandon Marshall on board, Bess will likely be moved to the slot exclusively in 2010. He’s shifty but not fast and has produced almost no big plays.

16. Harry Douglas, Atlanta (3rd) – Douglas made some dynamic plays as a rookie, but a torn ACL during training camp ended his 2009 season. He’s strictly a slot receiver in a run-based offense, which means he has no fantasy value.

17. Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati (3rd) – Caldwell is another player best suited to the slot in a run-based offense. There’s too much competition in Cincinnati to expect Caldwell to bust out in 2010.

18. Jaymar Johnson, Minnesota (6th) – A special teams player who is buried on the depth chart.

19. Brett Swain, Green Bay (7th) – Mostly a special teams player and clearly no better than fifth on the depth chart.

Hanging on to Roster Spots

Jerome Simpson, Cincinnati (2nd) – This Bengals second-round pick has been a complete bust. Might not earn a roster spot in 2010.

Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh (2nd) – Former second-round pick would have been fighting for his roster spot, but a knee injury landed him on injured reserve for 2010.

Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay (2nd) – Sense a pattern here? Another former second-round pick who has been a total bust, now in Carolina.

Lavelle Hawkins, Tennessee (4th) – Titans have plenty of depth at wide receiver; fortunately for Hawkins none of it is spectacular.

Keenan Burton, St. Louis (4th) – Can’t stay healthy and will likely have to beat out 2009 fifth-round pick Brooks Foster to earn a spot on the roster.

Kenneth Moore, Carolina (5th) – Six catches in two years and now facing a logjam at wide receiver in Carolina.

Adrian Arrington, New Orleans (7th) – Can’t seem to get off the practice squad.

Matt Slater, New England (5th) – Will be fighting with Sam Aiken, Brandon Tate, and rookie Taylor Price to keep his roster spot in 2010.

Lance Long, Kansas City (undrafted) – Caught some balls in 2010, but the Chiefs brought in the more proven Jerheme Urban, who will likely steal Long’s role.

Nate Hughes, Jacksonville (undrafted) – He runs fast in a straight line. There isn’t much else to add.

Likely Out of the League


More Draft Rules of Thumb


By: — July 28, 2009 @ 9:34 am
Filed under: Strategy

Continuing the draft strategy advice posted last week, here are five more tips or rules of thumb to keep in mind for your upcoming draft.

6. Don’t Have Too Many Sleepers

Sleepers are the ultimate way to show your competition that you have done your homework and hit a home run on a player. Nonetheless, a roster that has too many sleepers can tend to be one built with a lot of potential but low or inconsistent production. Sleepers are ranked low for a reason – they are higher risk players, and even if they do “hit”, they make take some time to come around and for you to trust starting them on a regular basis.

Therefore, don’t fill out your roster with too many sleepers, especially when there are solid veterans with a proven track record of decent production available. Let’s look at the 49ers wide receiver position heading into last season. Old reliable Isaac Bruce was entering his first season in San Francisco but all the preseason hype was focused on rookie 6th round pick Josh Morgan. At season’s end, Bruce had tallied 125 fantasy points compared to Morgan’s 50. Try to strike a nice balance between upside sleeper picks, and steady, unsexy veteran picks.

7. Never Reach Too Much For Your Sleepers

Just about every team is going to have a couple of sleepers in mind as they head into their draft. As the rounds drift by or the auction dollars get spent, anxiety always enters the picture. Is this the last chance to nab Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells or whoever your sleeper or deep sleeper is? As the pulse quickens, take a step back and remember the definition of a sleeper – a player who provides tremendous value. If you reach for your sleeper a couple of rounds early or spend too much on them, you’re effectively defeating the purpose.

8. Don’t Draft With Trades In Mind

If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough, you’ve been in a situation where the draft hasn’t gone according to plan and you have made a pick that has put you in a hole. Maybe you took a second tier QB in the fourth round and then watched as two or three rounds passed before a very similar QB was taken and your opponents look to have better rosters than yours currently looks.

At this point, don’t scan other teams’ rosters for holes and then take a player in the hopes of trading that player to fix a hole in your roster. One for one trades after the draft don’t happen very often because teams have just picked their rosters based on their perceived values of the players they have chosen. The one cardinal rule (and sin) in fantasy football is that every owner overvalues their team and players immediately after a draft. Unless available information changes (injuries, revised depth charts, suspensions, etc.), teams aren’t moving their higher draft pick for your lower draft pick. Realistically, only package trades happen immediately after a draft and it generally doesn’t make sense to be banking on a later trade during your draft.

The one caveat to this rule is that there may be occasions where in the middle rounds of a draft a running back or wide receiver is available who is too good to pass up. In terms of 2009, think Colts running back Joseph Addai being available in the 6th round or Vikings wide receiver Bernard Berrian being available in the 8th round. On these rare occasions, the value just might be too great to pass on.

9. Participate In Mock Drafts

Because it’s all about value, mock drafts are an invaluable tool in learning what the general prevailing wisdom is regarding players and their teams. A mock draft will help you determine whether owners believe certain players will return strong from an injury or injury plagued season, whether an up and coming player is ready for a breakout season, etc.

Plus, it’s a great way to hone your draft skills. Participating in a mock might help you remember that mistake you made last year and how you plan to avoid it this year. Maybe it will jar your memory regarding your opponents’ tendencies. If you’re going to be in an auction draft, it’s a great way to get a feel for the flow of an auction.

10. Don’t Take A Player As Payback

Perhaps during the course of your draft, an opponent has taken one of your handcuffs and you now have an opportunity to take one of theirs. Or maybe in last year’s draft, an opponent took the handcuff of your RB1 and left you with a hole on your roster. Building your team isn’t about paybacks so it’s important to focus on the task at hand – getting the best possible fantasy roster that you can. It’s possible that your opponent valued your handcuff more than you did. Maybe they think Adrian Peterson is injury prone so taking Chester Taylor in the 5th round makes sense. If so, they’re unlikely to want to swap handcuffs with you anyways. Move on and finish building your roster with a solid pick instead of one based on spite.

One final tip for auction drafts. Although it doesn’t work for every player because your opponents will figure out your tactic, let other teams bid on key players you have targeted and then when the bidding appears to have stopped, jump in with a bid to get your target. As the number of teams bidding on a player is reduced and the price rises, there’s a tendency for owners to convince themselves that the price they think they are about to pay is solid value for that player. For example, if the bidding on Tom Brady is going up a dollar a bid and seems to have stopped at $40, the owner who has bid $40 will rationalize that this was a good price. If they have rationalized Brady’s value in this manner, then they are unlikely to immediately change their thought process and now view Brady as being worth, say, $43. Jump into the bidding late and he’s likely yours.

Finally, it’s important to remember that we’re all in this for fun. Roll with the punches, enjoy your draft or auction and don’t take it too seriously. Even if your auction doesn’t go according to plan, your in-season roster management ability of executing trades and acquiring players on the waiver wire provides an opportunity to correct any deficiencies in your roster that have occurred during the draft. Plus, a few solid starting line-up decisions may nab a win or two and that always helps.


Draft Strategy-Advice-Tips du Jour


By: — July 24, 2009 @ 11:35 am
Filed under: Strategy

On the heels of my draft strategy article, it seemed like a good idea to hit on a number of smaller topics to help guide you through your upcoming fantasy football draft.

1. Value Is King

The most important consideration in any fantasy draft or auction is value. Theoretically, if every player that an owner acquires outperforms their draft position or auction cost, that team will be a contender for the league title. Of course, obtaining value is easy to say and hard to do. However, there are some basic tenets that are useful in ensuring your roster is shaped by solid values.

First off, do your homework and get your cheatsheets filled out early and update often as the preseason progresses. If you follow the league throughout the year, you’re up to date on league news. If not, then get up to date. Thomas Jones was a revelation for the Jets last year but the team has lost Brett Favre and Laveranues Coles on offense. As a result, Jones is almost certainly looking at a drop in production. Second, avoid falling in love with certain players. Follow your tiers (more on that below) and don’t reach for a player. Third, try to fill out your starting line-up before moving on to filling your bench spots. After all, bench points don’t count except in leagues where they settle ties.

In one of my dynasty leagues, the owners place tremendous value on running backs so the wide receivers are great values. In three years, the only stud running back I’ve had is Joseph Addai and that is because I picked him up as a rookie.

2. Have A Flexible Strategy

Whatever your strategy is heading into your draft, you need to be prepared to alter it if the draft does not turn out as you expected. If you had anticipated getting a solid running back with the 11th pick and running backs come off the board with the first 10 picks, then it’s time to change gears. Rather than take an injury prone Brandon Jacobs or a banged up Brian Westbrook, consider taking your top rated QB or Larry Fitzgerald, the consensus top WR, before getting a running back .

In snake drafts, many owners attempt to map out their first three picks. Some follow the two-stud running back approach, while others may want a tier one player at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. In many instances, it’s possible that the draft will flow in a manner that results in an owner being able to follow their strategy. However, if that doesn’t occur, you need to be flexible and move on. It’s better to be flexible than being rigid and following a strategy that nets you Ryan Grant instead of Larry Fitzgerald just because you were set on taking running backs with your first two picks.

3. Follow Your Tiers

The concept of tiering is invaluable in a fantasy draft or auction. The concept is basically to tier (group) players at each position based on similar anticipated production. For example, in 2009 the top tier of QB consists of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. At RB, the top tier consists of Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Matt Forte.

As your draft or auction proceeds, you then have an idea of where the value lies. If the top tier of running backs is gone, it might be time to target a top tier WR or QB. Once the top tier of QB, RB and WR are exhausted, perhaps it’s time to target a top tier TE.

Essentially, an owner that drafts according to his tiers is less likely to overpay for a certain player. Plus, if the last player in a tier is available at your pick, you know to take that player.

In auction leagues, tiering can be very useful if you are aware of the status of the other team’s rosters. For instance, assume that in a 10-team league, four teams need starting QB and there are five tier three QB available. There is no need to overpay for the first three or four QB put up for auction. Wait for the other nine teams to fill out their starter position and then get one of the remaining tier two QB cheaply because the other teams are not likely to overpay for a backup QB.

Alternatively, if four teams need a starter and only three tier two QB are available, then you likely want to get the first or second player put up for auction because there will be two teams battling to get the final tier two QB, thereby driving up the auction cost.

4. Look Ahead And Anticipate The Flow Of Your Draft

In snake drafts, the flow of the draft will generally result in runs on players, roughly based on tiers to the extent owners have similar rankings. After the first QB is chosen, there is the possibility that the entire first tier of QB may go quickly after. As the group of tier one WR dwindles, there could be a run on these players.

Because of this, it’s important to spend as much of your downtime during the draft focusing on your opponents’ rosters as on your own roster. If you have an idea that there will be a run on tier one WR prior to your next pick, you can be ready to perhaps take the top TE available. Alternatively, if there are a number of tier two RB available at your pick but you anticipate there won’t be a top tier WR available with your pick next, perhaps you may want to grab the WR now.

In auction leagues, there is a definite ebb and flow that transpires during the course of the auction whether it is in dynasty or non-dynasty leagues. Generally, teams will focus the early part of the draft acquiring high priced talent thereby reducing their ability to spend later in the draft. At a certain point after teams have spent a decent amount of their auction dollars, they take a breather and it is at this point that values become available. After they re-enter the fray and complete filling out their rosters, there is another point where values become available. In 2008, this was when the likes of Thomas Jones, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels became available.

Last year, in one auction dynasty league, I nabbed Steve Smith for $46 and Brandon Marshall for $47 during a lull in the proceedings after another owner had spent $70 on Terrell Owens. In this league, $70 for Owens wasn’t a bad deal and certainly wasn’t a precedent but obviously Smith and Marshall were better values.

5. Don’t Ignore The Rap Sheet

For most of us, the cup is half full as opposed to half empty. We want to believe that player X will bust out, player Y will bounce back and player Z will stay out of trouble. In 2008, DeAngelo Williams busted out, Kurt Warner bounced back and Antonio Bryant stayed out of trouble. Unfortunately, Marshawn Lynch didn’t bust out, Roy Williams didn’t bounce back and Larry Johnson didn’t stay out of trouble.

Analyzing the common denominators of certain players who underachieve isn’t too difficult. Players with attitude and criminal issues should carry a red flag and be ranked lower than they would otherwise be. Bryant is a perfect example. He was a huge surprise as the 8th ranked fantasy WR in 2008 which would warrant him being drafted in the 3rd round in 2009. However, he lost his QB and complained about receiving the franchise tag and getting an $8-million one-year contract as opposed to a long-term extension.

There’s nothing wrong with taking players of questionable character but there are two rules when you do so. Don’t reach for these players and never have too many of them on your roster. Otherwise, you will be carrying substantial risk heading into your fantasy football season.


Draft Strategy Changing with the Times


By: — July 22, 2009 @ 12:33 pm
Filed under: Strategy

Drafting strategies for fantasy football leagues used to be much simpler. For the most part, leagues had standard scoring, utilized a snake draft and most NFL teams had a starting running back and utilized the backup in either a receiving role or to spell the starter when they were tired. Based on that, the two-stud RB approach applied to pretty much every drafting position with the exception of the top few positions where taking a quarterback or wide receiver at the end of second round made some sense.

Now, there are snake drafts and auction drafts. There are re-draft leagues and dynasty leagues and leagues that allow a set number of keepers. There are even salary cap leagues (my favourite). There is standard scoring. There is points per reception scoring. There are individual defensive player (IDP) leagues. A friend of mine wants the NFL to make pancake blocks a statistic so there can be offensive line scoring. Maybe that’s a bit much.

In terms of the NFL, there has been a greater emphasis on passing the ball, with rules in place to better protect the QB and to make things tougher on defenders to actually defend receivers. Plus, very few teams desire to utilize a single RB for the majority of the carries. Those expensive team assets breakdown with all the pounding, so keeping them healthy and fresh by splitting the RB workload across two or more players is the philosophy many teams are using.

Basically, the NFL and fantasy football has changed. Unfortunately, fantasy football drafting strategies are slow to keep up with the changes.

If 2008 wasn’t the year to abandon the two-stud running back approach, then certainly 2009 is. Having reviewed the RB situation for all 32 NFL teams, it is abundantly clear that few fantasy football teams will be able to employ two stud running backs in 2009. There appear to be only five NFL teams that will rely heavily on a single RB this year. In fact, barring a surprise performance by a lower rated RB in a re-draft league, having two studs on one fantasy team is only a realistic option in dynasty leagues.

Going over each team’s roster, only the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Jaguars (Maurice Jones-Drew), Bears (Matt Forte), Redskins (Clinton Portis) and Rams (Steven Jackson) will likely employ a true workhorse RB in 2009. It is possible that the Lions (Kevin Smith) and Browns (Jamal Lewis) may also use a workhorse approach but these teams are unlikely to have a strong offense this year. The league’s other 25 teams either rely on a running back by committee approach (RBBC), have a young back that they plan to develop or have an aging runner who is unlikely to handle a workhorse role.

For further proof of this trend, note the drop in production of top ten RB from 2000 to 2008. The average production of the top ten RB peaked at 286 points in 2003, hit a low during this timeframe of 228 points in 2007, and rebounded slightly to 241 points in 2008. The drop from the high in 2003 to 2008 is 15.7%.

Top 10 RB Production 2000-2008

Top 10 RB Production 2000-2008

Furthermore, it is getting more difficult to predict which RB will achieve top ten fantasy production. Last year, only five of the top ten RB based on average draft position (ADP) actually cracked the top ten at season’s end. Rookies Matt Forte and Steve Slaton as well as DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Thomas Jones all surprised by finishing as top ten fantasy RB. The average ADP for these five backs was 72, in part due to Slaton’s ADP of 129. The 11th ranked RB in 2008 was rookie Chris Johnson and he would have cracked the top ten at the expense of Maurice Jones-Drew if he wasn’t held out of the Titans final game of the regular season.

As more and more teams move to the RBBC approach, it gets harder to differentiate between the second and third tier RB. Is Brandon Jacobs in a RBBC worth significantly more than Willie Parker in a RBBC? Barring injuries, touchdowns are likely to be the determining factor. Jacobs average draft position (ADP) is currently 17 whereas Parkers’ is currently 57.

For comparative purposes, the chart below provides the average production of the top ten WR over the same time period. A review of the two charts clearly indicates that the production of the average top ten WR on a yearly basis does not fluctuate as wildly as that of the top ten RB.

Top 10 WR Production 2000-2008

Top 10 WR Production 2000-2008

Also, it is much easier to predict which WR will finish in the top ten. In 2008, the only surprise top ten WR was Antonio Bryant. In fact, the only disappointments amongst players considered to be top WR were Chad Ochocinco, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards and Marques Colston. Ochocinco and Houshmandzadeh suffered to a lengthy injury to QB Carson Palmer, Edwards played in a Cleveland offense that failed to score a single touchdown over its last five games and Colston had injury issues.

With Brandon Marshall finishing 11th and Reggie Wayne 14th, it is possible to argue that the top two tiers of WR contained 15 players and ten of these 15 players finished in the top 11 or alternatively that 11 players finished in the top 14.

The conclusions that can be drawn for snake and auction drafts are quite simple. In snake drafts, it will be nearly impossible to acquire two stud RB with your first two picks. Therefore, most teams should consider a strategy based on using either their first or second pick on a WR. In auction drafts, because owners are willing to pay a high cost for a stud RB, getting two will leave your team with very few auction dollars remaining to fill out your roster. Because the odds of hitting on both of your RB are low, this strategy also seems outdated.

In terms of the QB position, the differentiation between the top tier and the second tier does not warrant spending a first or second round pick on one, or spending a high portion of your auction dollars on one.

All in all, make sure you put enough emphasis on the WR position in your draft. We may long for the days of grind it out, power football, but today’s NFL is a passing league. That, coupled with the onset of RBBC has devalued the RB position. Adjust your fantasy football strategy, accordingly.


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