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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Doug Orth — April 11, 2014 @ 10:27 am
As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on May 8, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 20 or so offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft.
 Manziel: Boom or bust and not much in between. Vitals
College: Texas A&M
Height/Weight: 6’0”/207
Hands: 9 3/4”
Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.68
Vertical Jump: 31 1/2”
Broad Jump: 9’ 5”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.03
Background (College Stats)
After redshirting in 2011, Manziel reportedly considered transferring in the wake of a potential suspension for an off-field brawl. He stayed at College Station, somewhat surprisingly won the starting job following Ryan Tannehill’s departure to the NFL and made the SEC – annually the most competitive conference in college football – look silly for most of the next two seasons. Manziel’s star really began to shine in 2012 moments after he guided Texas A&M to a 29-24 win over Alabama, a game in which he accounted for 345 of his team’s 418 yards and played an instrumental role in handing the eventual national champion Crimson Tide their only loss. Given his performance in that game and the sheer number of school, conference and NCAA records he set along the way that season, voters seemingly had no choice but to make him the first-ever freshman to receive the Heisman Trophy. Manziel’s follow-up sophomore seemed disappointing if only because his Aggies finished with four losses – thanks in large part to a dreadful defense – and the unrealistic expectations placed upon him from the video-game numbers he posted as a freshman. To that end, he wrapped up his college career with an incredible performance (455 total yards and five touchdowns) in a 52-48 comeback win over Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Of course, no discussion of the A&M star is complete without noting his off-field behavior, which ranged from being at the wrong place at the wrong time (his June 2012 arrest for failure to identify) to an “inadvertent violation” of NCAA rules (the autograph incident in which the NCAA found no proof that he accepted money) to the somewhat irresponsible (reportedly oversleeping when he was one of the counselors at the Manning Passing Academy).
NFL Player Comp(s): Doug Flutie/Fran Tarkenton
Strengths
- Uncanny ability to escape trouble, make something out of nothing and extend plays; at his best, he will make defenses cover the entire field.
- Improvisational skills, elusiveness in the open field and ability to throw on the run or against his body are top-notch.
- Seems to possess a sixth sense of sorts; has an almost innate ability to feel pressure and enough lower-body strength to get out of the grasp of defensive linemen and/or linebackers.
- Has huge hands for player of his size to effectively pump-fake; possesses plenty of arm strength to throw down the field and complete the deep out to the opposite hash/sideline.
- Ultra-competitiveness shows in his play – he repeatedly displayed the ability to rally his teammates in difficult circumstances.
- Plays with a chip on his shoulder and performs well on the “big stage”.
- Confidence in his ability should play well with supporting cast in crunch time (former teammates rave about playing with him); figures to be lethal in the two-minute drill.
- Can throw from a variety of platforms and arm angles.
Weaknesses
- Reckless with the ball, both as a runner and a passer; carries the ball with one hand away from body while running and throws too many balls up for grabs.
- Too many instances of throwing off-balance or off his back foot, which is likely a by-product of the confidence he has in his ability to make something happen on just about every play.
- Has not been asked to work through progressions consistently and, as a result, often gives up on pass plays too quickly; needs to learn a throw out-of-bounds is sometimes the smartest play he can make.
- Does not do a consistently good enough job of protecting his body when he decides to become a runner.
- Stares down receivers too often.
- Has a tendency to throw behind his receivers on short routes and does not deliver a consistent spiral.
- Will inexplicably change his arm angle, particularly on intermediate throws.
Bottom Line
Manziel can be a very successful quarterback in the NFL, but much will depend on the flexibility and creativity of the team that drafts him. If a team selects with the hope that he will be a timing-and-rhythm-based quarterback no later than 2015 or 2016, then the chances are great that he will fail miserably. In fact, the odds that he’ll ever be a “normal” drop-back passer at any point in his career are fairly slim. Whereas most teams want their signal-callers to be quick-minded distributors, the organization that drafts Manziel must understand – at least initially – that his receivers and tight ends could often serve as window dressing for its new quarterback on any number of pass plays. The former Heisman winner has a strong-enough arm as well as the competitiveness and scrambling ability to be a big-time star in the NFL, but how many of today’s coaches will tolerate the number of times he loses 15 yards on a wild scramble versus the number of times he blindly throws the ball up for grabs versus the number of times he creates a big play due to his elusiveness or ability to improvise? Teams must be willing to take the (sometimes very) bad with the (sometimes very) good his unique talent will allow him to create. While Manziel’s ceiling is incredibly high, his floor is equally low. In short, he will not be an average player in the NFL; he is the embodiment of a boom-or-bust pick. Manziel is a player that should scare all 32 teams (the one that drafts him and must deal with his unpredictability as well as the 31 other teams that will be forced to defend such an unorthodox quarterback). While his lack of ideal size will likely draw the most criticism throughout the rest of the draft process, teams should be far more concerned with the likelihood that his reckless style will lead to a relatively short and/or injury-plagued NFL career.
By: Doug Orth — April 9, 2014 @ 9:06 am
As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on May 8, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 20 or so offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft.
 Bortles’ boom-bust meter isn’t as volatile as Manziel’s. Vitals
College: Central Florida
Height/Weight: 6’5”/232
Hands: 9 1/4”
Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.93
Vertical Jump: 32 1/2”
Broad Jump: 9’ 7”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.21
Background (College Stats)
Unlike Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel, Bortles was not a highly sought-after quarterback recruit coming out of high school. In fact, only four colleges had interest in him and two of them wanted to convert him into a tight end. After redshirting his first year, Bortles began to prove the Knights right for leaving him at his natural position when he earned Conference USA All-Freshman Team honors while appearing in 10 games in 2011. As a sophomore, he started all 14 games and finished behind Bridgewater as a second-team all-conference pick after throwing for 3,059 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Still, the Oviedo (Fla.) native remained a relative unknown until Central Florida’s fourth-quarter rally fell three points short against SEC power South Carolina in September 2013. However, Bortles and his Knights got the big-time win they desired a few weeks later when they overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit against one of the top defenses in the country (Louisville) on national television. He then capped off the Knights’ finest season in school history by leading Central Florida to a 52-42 victory against heavily-favored Baylor in the school’s first-ever BCS bowl game, throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns while adding 93 yards on the ground and another score in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.
NFL Player Comp(s): A young Ben Roethlisberger
Strengths
- Prototypical size with very good athleticism; has the ability to rip off a 20-30 yard run and/or extend plays.
- Does not possess rocket-launcher arm strength, but does not struggle to make all the necessary throws.
- Adept as a passer rolling to the left or right, will square his shoulders on the run to ensure an accurate throw.
- Shows a good feel for pressure, keeps his eyes downfield and moves well inside the pocket.
- Throws with anticipation on the deep ball and displays the ability to “throw his receiver open”.
- Mental strength, ability to rally the troops and competitive drive show up repeatedly; has a short memory and bounces back well after a mistake.
Weaknesses
- Decision-making (especially on deep throws) can be questioned and ball security was an issue in final season (eight fumbles).
- Doesn’t always do a great job of locating the safety on downfield throws.
- Tends to get lazy with his footwork and will throw off-balance on occasion inside the pocket.
- Inconsistent mechanics really show up when he is required to make an intermediate-to-deep throw against the blitz.
- Runs hot-and-cold in terms of his willingness to “look down the gun barrel” and doesn’t always react well when pressure comes up the middle.
- Touch passes are a work in progress.
Bottom Line
On one hand, Bortles looks the part as much as any of the top draft-eligible quarterback (along with LSU’s Zach Mettenberger and perhaps Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas). On the other hand, the 2013 AAC Offensive Player of the Year sported a 9:7 TD-to-INT ratio against South Carolina, Louisville, South Florida and Baylor – the four top 40 pass defenses on the Knights’ 2013 schedule – and a 16:2 mark against every other opponent. In those four “difficult” matchups, it should be noted that a great deal of Bortles’ statistical success came as a result of what his receivers and running backs did after the catch. It is hard to deny that Bortles has all the physical gifts necessary to be an upper-echelon NFL quarterback, but his decision-making and ball-security issues are legitimate concerns. While his ceiling is arguably higher than any other quarterback in this draft, he isn’t nearly as ready for rookie-year success as Bridgewater, so the team that selects will almost certainly need to protect him with a good rushing attack since the likelihood is high he will begin the season as a starter. Bortles’ boom-bust meter isn’t nearly as volatile as Manziel’s nor does he possess the polish Bridgewater, but his physical skill set easily surpasses that of his other two aforementioned counterparts. Short of an Andrew Luck-type quarterback who enters the league with prototypical size, athletic ability AND a refined skill set, NFL teams will almost always value a signal-caller that has Bortles’ size and athletic ability along with the potential to develop the skill set over a player with a refined skill set that may lack his size and athletic ability. It’s not hard to see how Bortles could one day be a top 10 NFL quarterback when he’s on his game, but there’s also more than enough film of him to suggest that consistency may be a problem for him as well.
By: Doug Orth — April 7, 2014 @ 10:40 am
As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on May 8, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 20 or so offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft.
 Teddy Bridgewater: The safest QB pick in the draft. Vitals
College: Louisville
Height/Weight: 6’2”/214
Hands: 9 1/4”
Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.67
Vertical Jump: 30”
Broad Jump: 9’5”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.20
Background (College Stats)
Bridgewater, who originally committed to Miami (Fla.) before landing at Louisville, entered college as the second-rated quarterback prospect in the nation by Rivals.com. The Miami native – the first freshman quarterback to start at the school since Stu Stram in 1976 – went on to be named Big East Rookie of the Year in 2011 despite a 14:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He proved to be a quick study in Cardinals OC Shawn Watson’s offense as he compiled a 58:12 TD-INT ratio over the final two years of his college career. Bridgewater was already generating a fair amount of buzz near the end of the 2012 season before leading Louisville to a surprising 33-23 victory in the Sugar Bowl over a Florida team that saw five of its defenders get drafted last April, including two in the first round. Bridgewater toyed with the American Athletic Conference in his final season and finished off his college career with a virtuoso 447-yard, four-touchdown (three passing, one rushing) performance against his hometown team in the Russell Athletic Bowl, wrapping up a season in which he completed 71 percent of his passes in a pro-style offense and threw for 3,970 yards, 31 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
NFL Player Comp(s): A poor man’s Aaron Rodgers
Strengths
- Shows fearlessness against the blitz, does not get rattled after taking a jarring shot from a defender and keep his eyes downfield.
- Uses eyes/feet to manipulate safeties as well as any college quarterback in the last two draft classes.
- Makes quick/sound decisions and is rarely ever caught off-guard; ball is almost always gone a split-second after he completes his drop.
- Was trusted to make his own checks/audibles at the line of scrimmage (as opposed to the majority of college quarterbacks nowadays that look to the sideline after defense has set).
- Very accurate; short and intermediate throws are often extended handoffs.
- Exceptional touch on fades as well as throws on the move (left or right).
- Moves well inside the pocket and has a good feel for backside pressure.
- Play exudes confidence in his ability; knows the difference between fitting and forcing a throw into a tight window.
Weaknesses
- Long-ball accuracy (only completed 39% of throws that traveled 20-plus yards).
- Slightly above-average arm strength is exposed on deep throws as ball can get hung up in the air.
- Lean build did not necessarily lead to wrist/ankle injuries at college level, but could be a problem in the NFL.
- Less-than-ideal release point (ball often comes out near his ear as opposed to over the shoulder), leading to a few more tipped passes.
- Can run well enough to pick up the first down, but is not a breakaway threat as a runner.
- Doesn’t always protect himself outside the pocket, opening him up for big hits on outside throws or in an effort to pick up yards on the ground.
Bottom Line
It’s rare that a prospect comes along that has virtually little-to-no “bust potential”, especially at the quarterback position, but Bridgewater may very well be that player in this class. Let’s be clear: he is not an elite prospect so much as he is a player capable of being an above-average quarterback for the next decade. While his ceiling isn’t as high as some of his other highly-ranked counterparts (Johnny Manziel has more athleticism and Blake Bortles is an unfinished product with prototypical size for the position), playing quarterback in the NFL is much more of a mentally-taxing job than it is a physically-taxing one in a lot of cases. Bridgewater is the rare combination of a college player that can outthink a defense and has enough ability to do something about it. Watson believes quarterbacks are better served by learning defensive theory first and his playbook second. When watching Bridgewater play, it is hard to argue against Watson’s methodology given how often his pupil simply appeared as if he was always a step or two ahead of opposing defenses. Critics have been quick to point out Bridgewater’s lack of accuracy as a deep-ball thrower, but Louisville’s offensive philosophy is based on short-to-long reads whereas most NFL teams work in a deep-to-short manner. As a result, Bridgewater’s deep throws can sometimes be his second or third read in the progression, meaning he has less time and more pressure to make those kind of throws than most quarterbacks. While he is not the complete package like Andrew Luck or the athlete that Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson are, few quarterback prospects in recent memory are more prepared to play in the NFL from the neck up than Bridgewater.
By: Doug Orth — April 3, 2014 @ 10:04 am
As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on May 8, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 20 or so offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft.
 Mike Evans: Vincent Jackson’s frame and Brandon Marshall’s game. Vitals
College: Texas A&M
Height/Weight: 6’5”/232
Hands: 9 1/2”
Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.53
Vertical Jump: 37”
Broad Jump: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.26
3-Cone: 7.08
Background (College Stats)
Evans was a bit more of a basketball phenom in his high-school days, only playing football in his senior year. However, he proved to be a quick study in the Aggies’ spread attack in 2012 after taking a redshirt year, leading Texas A&M with 82 receptions for 1,105 yards (both school freshman records) and five touchdowns. Evans’ catch numbers dropped in 2013, but spiked almost everywhere else, posting a 69-1,394-12 line (breaking former teammate Ryan Swope’s single-season record for receiving yardage) in an offense that saw four receivers record at least 51 catches. Although the first-team All-SEC receiver tore apart Alabama for 279 yards earlier in the year, his finest game came against national champion runner-up Auburn, which he burned for 11 receptions, a school-record 287 yards and four touchdowns. Those games allowed Evans to become the first player in school history to register two 200-yard receiving games in his career. Unfortunately, the Biletnikoff Award finalist ended his college career on a bit of a mixed note. Evans picked up two 15-yard penalties in the first quarter of the Aggies’ thrilling comeback win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl after getting on officials for a lack of a pass interference call in the end zone against Duke CB (and fellow 2014 draft classmate) Ross Cockrell. The second infraction likely was a carryover from the first no-call (as well as continued physical play from Cockrell), suggesting the mean streak Evans uses to his advantage so often can also manifest itself in a negative way as well.
NFL Player Comp(s): Vincent Jackson’s frame and Brandon Marshall’s game
Strengths
- Highly physical receiver that uses his size and strength well; challenges defenders to tackle him but displays enough elusiveness in the open field to make the first man miss.
- Large catch radius given his size and wingspan, shows exceptional hands on 50/50 balls and is perhaps the best combination red-zone/deep threat in this draft.
- Master at the fade-stop and displays great body control as well as an innate ability to time “high-point” throws.
- Stacks the defender well on deep throws and can catch over either shoulder.
- Is not the best run-after-catch threat in his class, but has a good stiff-arm and more than enough power to run through or drag tacklers.
- Gives consistent effort on pass plays whether or not he is the target and is also a willing run blocker who can flatten his defender on occasion.
- Was often the target for QB Johnny Manziel when plays broke down, making himself an inviting option by using “scramble-drill” techniques and boxing out the defender when necessary.
Weaknesses
- Could face a long learning curve in learning a NFL offense since Texas A&M did not use a pro-style offense; most of his production came on jump balls, screens, fade-stops or go routes.
- Rides a fine line between pushing off defender while ball is in the air and creating separation with his size; earned a reputation among SEC coaches that he grabbed cornerbacks during a route to get an extra “boost”.
- Final college game displayed a bit of an uneven temperament and that a defender (or referee) can rattle him.
- Allows the ball get into his body a bit too often, mostly on short and intermediate throws.
- Ends up near the sideline too often before he can make a play on the ball, thereby making a difficult downfield throw even more so for his quarterback.
- A bit of long-strider and a bit slow coming out of breaks (common for a receiver of his size), which may lend itself to a lot of contested catches in the NFL.
Bottom Line
Some bigger receivers act as if they have been told not to be overly physical because they have always been bigger than all the other kids; Evans has no such problem and actually plays with a bit of mean streak. He should make an immediate impact as a red-zone threat given the pro game’s love for the fade pattern in the scoring area as well as the deep passing game with his size and leaping ability. That’s the good news. The glass-half-empty view would suggest that his college offense may have stunted his growth as a student of the game because so much of the Aggies’ attack was based on Manziel’s ability to create something out of nothing. It’s hardly a fatal flaw, however, since just about any position coach would prefer having a receiver with Evans’ measurables and competitive drive (and teach him how to be a pro receiver) as opposed to taking on a refined route-runner without his unique qualities. Evans is going to be an instant starter in the NFL for the simple fact he is a matchup nightmare all over the field. It is scary to think Evans is a relatively raw 20-year-old who didn’t begin playing football until his senior year of high school. Clemson’s Sammy Watkins may be the better draft prospect in the short term, but no one should be surprised if Evans ends up being every bit as good – if not better – than his esteemed draft classmate once he becomes a more polished receiver.
By: Doug Orth — April 1, 2014 @ 6:43 pm
As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on May 8, I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths and weaknesses of at least the top 20 or so offensive skill-position prospects available in this draft.
 Watkins leads a pack of talented receivers in the 2014 draft class. Vitals
College: Clemson
Height/Weight: 6’1”/211
Hands: 9 1/2”
Important NFL Combine Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.43
Vertical Jump: 34”
Broad Jump: 10’ 6”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.34
3-Cone: 6.95
Background (College Stats)
A five-star recruit out of Fort Myers, Fla., Watkins had already broken 11 school freshman records seven games into his college career, including the all-purpose yardage mark previously held by C.J. Spiller. He finished the 2011 season with 82 catches for 1,219 yards and 12 touchdowns, numbers that helped him become only the fourth true freshman to be named an AP first-team All-American, joining Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson in that select group. In 2012, Watkins was arrested and charged with possession of a controlled substance and simple possession of marijuana – two misdemeanors that were later expunged from his record after he completed pre-trial intervention. Nevertheless, he still served a two-game suspension to open the season as a result. With defenses keying on him following his return, Watkins took a backseat to teammate DeAndre Hopkins (an eventual first-round pick of the Houston Texans) with 57 receptions for 708 yards and three TDs. It proved to be the only significant bump in the road for Watkins, however, as he posted a 101-1,464-12 line in his final season with the Tigers, including an Orange Bowl-record 16 receptions and 227 receiving yards in a 40-35 win over Ohio State. Perhaps the most telling statistic from that game: he gained 202 yards after the catch.
NFL Player Comp(s): Andre Johnson
Strengths
- Fearless hands-catcher with elite run-after-catch ability.
- Explosive playmaker in the open field that rarely gets tackled by the first defender.
- Possesses the initial burst to quickly eliminate cushion, the speed to run by a defender and the power to run him over.
- Shows exceptional field awareness and has a good sense of when to come back to help out his quarterback.
- Is able to track the ball well on over-the-shoulder catches and wins the majority of high-point battles with defenders on jump balls.
- Natural separation skills are enhanced by his ability to change his tempo and manipulate stems.
Weaknesses
- May struggle as a route-runner initially since Clemson did not employ a pro-style offense and used him primarily as an extension of the running game (on screens and quick hitters) or as a deep threat.
- Cornerbacks rarely lined up within five yards of line of scrimmage against him, making his ability to consistently defeat physical coverage a bit of an unknown.
- Charged with a couple of drug-related misdemeanors in 2012 and served a two-game suspension as a result; minor durability concerns.
- Solid overall build, but average height for a receiver in today’s NFL.
- Ball security (two fumbles in 2013 and lost four of seven throughout his three-year career).
Bottom Line
Although it doesn’t sound like a big deal, receivers that can actually be called “hands-catchers” are in short supply and those that can create offense with the ball in his hands the way Watkins does are truly a rare breed. Most running backs – much less receivers – don’t read their blocks or make the first defender miss as well as he does, which adds yet another set of unique skills to a prospect that is the clear top option in a draft year in which the receiver position is as loaded as it has been in recent memory. Much like many of the other high-profile receivers to enter the draft since the spread offense took over college football, Watkins may face a bit of a speed bump on his path to superstardom because the Tigers’ offense is based more on tempo and getting players in space and less on systematically breaking down a defense. However, NFL play-callers have gotten better about allowing their new players to do what they do best initially while spoon-feeding them the rest of the offense, so an instant impact cannot be ruled out. Even without factoring his potential impact as a kick and/or punt returner, Watkins will be a very good player in the NFL right away assuming his new team does everything it can to get him out into space. The first-team All-ACC selection isn’t quite the prospect that A.J. Green or Julio Jones was a few years ago, but there are parts of his game that are every bit as good – if not better – than Green or Jones when they declared for the draft (such as his run-after-catch ability).
By: Thomas Casale — March 11, 2014 @ 9:03 am
 As free agency kicks off, here is my first shot at a mock draft. I always tell people that no one knows anything this time of year, myself included. Even reporters close to teams who get information are likely being fed smokescreens. However, mock drafts are fun and people enjoy them, so here is my best educated guess as of March 11. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to drop me a line on Twitter @thepigskinguy.
1. Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville – Unless the Texans simply don’t like any of the top quarterbacks, this pick will be used to take one. Bridgewater is criticized a lot because he has been pegged as one of the top two picks in this draft for two years. However, there is also a lot to like about him. I have followed Bill O’Brien for a while and Bridgewater has everything he looks for in a quarterback. History suggests teams with the first pick that need a quarterback usually go with the safe choice over upside, so I think when the smoke settles, Houston will opt for Bridgewater over Blake Bortles.
2. St. Louis Rams: Greg Robinson, OT Auburn – The Rams would probably like to trade out of this spot but if they stay, Robinson is a logical selection. He fills a need for St. Louis and Robinson is now the top offensive tackle on many draft boards following his impressive combine.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina – Gus Bradley is a defensive minded coach and unless the Jaguars absolutely love one of the quarterbacks in this draft, it will be hard for them to pass up on a prospect like Clowney if he’s still on the board at three.
4. Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida – Everyone on the planet appears to love Brian Hoyer but an organization needs more than him at quarterback if they want to end decades of losing. Bortles still needs some work but he is smart with a big arm. I describe Bortles as a poor man’s Andrew Luck coming out of college and I say that as a compliment considering I expect Luck to be a Top 3 NFL quarterback very soon.
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson – I actually have Watkins as the top overall prospect in this draft. I think he is the one can’t-miss prospect given all the physical attributes Watkins brings to the receiver position. That theory will be tested if he goes to Oakland but Watkins certainly fills a need for the Raiders. Oakland has some decent receivers but no one close to being in Watkins’ class. He will be a game-changer from Day 1.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Khalil Mack, DE Buffalo – Mack dominated in college and while some will point to the fact that he played in the MAC, he had some of his biggest games against top-level competition. I saw Mack play a couple of times against bigger schools and he was a terror coming off the edge. He will instantly help a dormant Falcons’ pass rush.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jake Matthews, OT Texas A&M – The Bucs could go in many different directions but Matthews would be tough to pass up here. Matthews is a devastating run blocker and he has quick feet for a guy his size. The Bucs want to run the football and Matthews will help them solidify their line.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M – The Vikings re-signed Matt Cassel but they want to add a young quarterback in the draft and Manziel makes sense for Minnesota. A polarizing figure, Manziel will be an easy sell to a fan base that idolizes the quarterback he is often compared to: Fran Tarkenton. While Manziel does run a lot, when he threw from pocket last season he did a much better job of going through his progressions than the year before. Also, like him or not, Manziel ripped Nick Saban’s defense twice and that doesn’t happen often.
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M – The Bills are set on building around EJ Manuel and giving the young quarterback a 6’5 receiver is a great way to help him. Stevie Johnson is slowing down and there aren’t many receivers that can make plays with corners draped all over him like Evans can. Evans, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin would make an intriguing young trio of receivers in Buffalo.
10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB Michigan State – A lot of people like Justin Gilbert as the top corner because of his speed but I don’t think it’s close. Dennard was the best cover corner in college football last year. Denard is tough, smart and he would make a great addition to Detroit’s secondary.
11. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Barr, LB UCLA – Barr could easily be a Top 10 selection given his ability and production in college. However, if Barr slips to 11, the Titans will have to strongly consider him. Tennessee can go in a lot of different directions but the Titans are in need of an explosive pass rusher and Barr fits the bill.
12. New York Giants: Taylor Lewan, OT Michigan – Linebacker is a popular pick for the Giants and they certainly need to upgrade at that position. However, the Giants had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season and protecting Eli Manning is the team’s top priority. Lewan was one of the few bright spots on the worst coached team in college football last year once Lane Kiffin was fired.
13. St. Louis Rams: Ha Ha Clinton Dix, S Alabama – When your name is “Ha Ha” you should be drafted in the Top 15 by law. Dix is all over the field. I actually think he is one of the 10 best players in the draft at any position. The Rams safeties are dreadful. Dix would come in and be a huge upgrade to a defense that already has a nasty front seven.
14. Chicago Bears: Timmy Jernigan, DT Florida State – How bad was the Bears’ rush defense last year? Ray Rice gained 131 yards on them. Chicago is one of the easiest teams to project. They badly need a defensive tackle or safety. If the talented Jernigan is on the board, he will be a strong possibility for the Bears.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Donald, DT Pittsburgh – Like Chicago, the Steelers could go safety or defensive tackle here. Receiver is also a possibility but Donald is flying up draft boards. He also represents both value and fills a need for Pittsburgh. The Steelers often take the best player available and at 15, Donald would be that guy on a lot of boards.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Louis Nix, DT Notre Dame – The run on defensive tackles continues. The Cowboys’ defensive line is likely to take another hit when they lose DE Jason Hatcher to free agency, as Jerry Jones’ mismanagement of the salary cap continues to put the team in a bind. Dallas desperately needs a nose tackle and Nix is one of the top ones in this draft. He would be an excellent pick for the Cowboys, which means you can cross him off the list.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Odell Beckham, WR LSU – The Ravens badly need another receiver to complement Torrey Smith and help Joe Flacco. Beckham is a tough receiver that can go inside similar to Anquan Boldin, only with more speed. Beckham is one of the most underrated players in the draft. He has all the skills to be a star NFL receiver.
18. New York Jets: Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina – Geno Smith took a lot of criticism in his first season and much of it was deserved. Still, the Jets had the worst group of receivers and tight ends in the NFL. New York has to go offense with this pick to help its young quarterback. They could take a receiver but Ebron is the top tight end prospect available and would represent great value if he is still on the board at 18.
19. Miami Dolphins: Zach Martin, OT Notre Dame – Martin was excellent during his career at Notre Dame. He dominated as a left tackle and Martin has the versatility to play multiple positions on the line early in his career. Given all the problems the Dolphins have with their offensive line right now, Martin would be an excellent selection for them.
20. Arizona Cardinals: C.J. Mosley, LB Alabama – We are getting to the point in the draft where value matters and while Arizona does need an outside linebacker, Mosley is too good to pass up here even if the position may not be the team’s most pressing need. Mosley would fit in nicely with one of the emerging defensive units in the NFL.
21. Green Bay Packers: Calvin Pryor, S Louisville – The Packers had some of the worst safety play in the NFL last year. If either Pryor or Clinton Dix are on the board at 21, Green Bay will have to strongly consider them to address a major weakness.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Gilbert, CB Oklahoma State – Gilbert probably won’t last this long but I’m not as high on him as some people. When it comes to corners I think it’s Dennard and everyone else. The Eagles’ secondary was awful last season. They could address it in free agency but either way, corner and safety are both options for Philadelphia at 22.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Marqise Lee, WR USC – The Chiefs need more gamebreakers on offense and Lee would be a steal this low. Lee is slipping among draftniks but they need to look at his college situation. When you still put up numbers despite playing for the worst coach on the planet, it says a lot. I think Lee is one of the top offensive threats in the draft.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Kony Ealy, DE Missouri – The Bengals will likely lose Michael Johnson, so Ealy will help Cincinnati upgrade at a vital position. Ealy is a quick edge rusher who is also strong against the run. He can step in and rotate with Carlos Dunlap and Margus Hunt as a rookie.
25. San Diego Chargers: David Yankey, G Stanford – The Chargers showed at the end of last season their offense is at its best when they can run the ball effectively. Yankey is a piledriving run blocker who will instantly upgrade San Diego’s line at a position of need.
26. Cleveland Browns: Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State – The Browns are picking here because the Colts thought they said “sixth round” pick instead of “first round” pick for Trent Richardson. Cleveland obviously has many needs but Josh Gordon is really the only threat the Browns have at receiver. The explosive Cooks would change that, along with giving Cleveland a dangerous return man.
27. New Orleans Saints: Dee Ford, DE Auburn – I have Ford as a Top 15 player in this draft and will probably move him up as we go along. However, right now this is the area he is projected to go in. Ford dominated last year in the SEC and if he goes to the right team like the Saints, I think he will be a stud in the NFL. I won’t be surprised if someone like the Steelers grab him higher in the draft but if Ford lasts this long, Rob Ryan will love him.
28. Carolina Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State – If a top receiver is on the board at 28, I have to think the Panthers will pull the trigger. Carolina has the pieces in place to make another Super Bowl run, they just need more weapons in the passing game and help at offensive tackle. The 6’5 Benjamin would give Cam Newton a huge target, especially in the red zone.
29. New England Patriots: Kyle Fuller, CB Virginia Tech – If New England loses Aqib Talib, I like this pick for the Patriots. Fuller is the kind of smart, versatile corner Bill Belichick likes. Watching him in college, I could see Fuller playing for New England, so I’m projecting him to go there over the more popular Jace Amaro pick.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Bradley Roby, CB Ohio State – The 49ers don’t have many weaknesses but one area where they could stand to upgrade is at cornerback, especially after releasing Carlos Rogers. Roby was inconsistent last season but he still possesses a ton of physical ability. Under the right coaching staff, Roby has the tools to be a top-tier NFL corner.
31. Denver Broncos: Ra’Shede Hageman, DL Minnesota – The Broncos could grab an OT here to protect Peyton Manning but with Robert Ayers and Shaun Phillips’ futures both in doubt, defensive line is an area of need as well. Besides, if Hageman lasts this long, the versatile lineman will be one of the top players left on the board.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech – Seattle likes Luke Wilson but Amaro would add another dimension to the Seahawks’ offense. Amaro creates a lot of mismatches with opposing defenses and would give Russell Wilson a legitimate threat at the tight end position. Amaro is coming off a season where he caught 106 passes at Texas Tech.
By: Antonio D'Arcangelis — February 24, 2014 @ 11:00 pm
Updated: March 7th, 2014 @ 9:00 AM
 Decker may want to get paid, but the best fit for him is in Denver. 1. Eric Decker (DEN) – Decker is coming off a huge season for the AFC Champ Broncos and is looking at a lucrative multi-year deal. However, he won’t get No. 1 WR money because he’s a much better secondary option than a stud wideout. He’s a big body who can create space and haul in big catches, but the best fit for him is still in Denver. He might sign with the rival Colts – who like the Ravens and Patriots are in need of experienced receivers, but teams will likely remember that he was shut down Seattle’s defense in the Super Bowl.
The Best Fit: Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Patriots
UPDATE: He’s still looking at a deal just under that of a bona fide WR1 and with the confirmation from GM John Elway that he’ll likely hit the open market, there’s been increasing interest from the Colts.
2. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) – The Eagles would love to bring back both Maclin and Riley Cooper, though it will be difficult to pull that off. The Chiefs’ while a bit cash-strapped themselves, are likely to be able to afford one of the guys hitting the open market and Maclin makes the most sense as he flourished in Andy Reid’s offense in the past and won’t cost a ridiculous amount of money. Maclin is coming off a July 2013 ACL injury and there’s still a chance he stays in Philly — he said as much a couple weeks ago to the Philadelphia Inquirer — but Kansas City seems like the best fit.
The Best Fit: Chiefs, Eagles, Packers
UPDATE: SIGNED. The Eagles and Maclin agreed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract with a max value of $6 million, keeping the talented young receiver with one of the most potent offenses in football. Other teams may have been wary about signing Maclin to a big deal after last season’s major injury, so this is a good fit.
3. Anquan Boldin (SF) – I expected Boldin to sign another one-year deal with a contender – but based on ongoing talks between him and the 49ers, it appears they’ll figure out an extension similar to the three-year deal Reggie Wayne signed with the Colts in 2012 ($17.5 million). Boldin is 33 and surely wants another ring, and the 49ers still have a team capable of pulling it off. He probably won’t be the standout fantasy factor he was in the past, but he’s still a capable of big games and hot streaks.
The Best Fit: 49ers, Ravens, Colts
UPDATE: SIGNED. Boldin got a two-year deal with the 49ers reportedly worth $12 million – about what we expected. Now, the Niners have to deal with Colin Kaepernick.
4. Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – Nicks recently signed with Jay Z’s sports agency firm, so he’ll probably go get paid and find his way out of New York. There’s still some question as to why Nicks couldn’t get it done last season (56-896-0 was a truly disappointing fantasy line), though it’s possible it had to do with coaching. With the Giants’ receiving corps featuring so many young and talented options, Nicks feels like the odd man out. The Patriots have a history of rejuvenating disgruntled players so New England could definitely be a landing spot. but there will be competition for such an accomplished receiver (155-2,244-18 TDs in 2010-11).
The Best Fit: Patriots, Colts, Chiefs
UPDATE: The Ravens have popped up on the rumor mill for Nicks as they have a ton of cap space and need another wideout. He could sign a one-year deal similar to Maclin’s, if only because there are questions about his long-term durability/effectiveness.
5. Golden Tate (SEA) – While Tate has said he’d like to stay with Seattle, the receiving corps is too crowded for the Seahawks to make signing him a priority. And WR/PR guys who combine playmaking ability with consistency – like Tate – make GMs salivate. If the Colts miss out on Decker, they’ll make a play for Tate, although the Chiefs and Jets (who desperately need offensive playmakers) will be knocking on his door.
The Best Fit: Colts, Chiefs, Jets
UPDATE: With Sidney Rice now gone, the Seahawks need to keep Tate, and they’ve announced as much in anticipation of a possible offer prior to the March 11 date. He could still hit the open market, but the fit in Seattle is good.
6. James Jones (GB) – Jones is the wild card of the free agent market and it’s likely his days in Green Bay are over. He’s not really needed there and although Aaron Rodgers has lobbied for him to stay, agent Frank Bauer doesn’t think GM Ted Thompson really wants him back. This has nothing to do with Jones’ play – which has been solid if not superb for the Packers over the past few seasons. His TD production plummeted to just 3 in 2013 (he had 14 TDs in 2012) and it’s likely that he’ll command a big deal if he skips town – maybe a tick below what Nicks would make since he’s a few years older but has considerably less wear and baggage. It’s anybody’s guess where he lands, though it’s clear he’ll be used as a red zone target and as a No. 2/3 WR.
The Best Fit: Panthers, Dolphins, Colts
UPDATE: The New York Giants are reportedly in the mix for Jones, who could make a viable red zone target and worthy replacement for Nicks, who is all but gone. The Giants can’t afford to make a huge splash, so signing Jones to a one-year deal is a distinct possibility.
7. Riley Cooper (PHI) – Cooper broke out in a big way in 2013 (47-835-8 on 83 targets), and while he might be able to land a big contract by leaving Philly, I think he fits in great with Nick Foles and the current Eagles offense. The Eagles don’t ask much of Cooper and that’s a good thing, because he’s not that physically gifted a receiver. If he does leave town, I’m almost positive it’ll be to sign an abnormally large contract with the Jets – because that’s something they would do. If teams don’t overspend, he could end up a pawn on Bill Belichick’s chess board.
The Best Fit: Eagles, Jets, Patriots
UPDATE: SIGNED. Cooper inked a five-year, $25 million deal that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense considering the Eagles had leverage in this situation. But, Cooper will get a fat paycheck and resume No. 3 WR duties with Maclin healthy and back to business.
8. Julian Edelman (NE) – Speaking of Belichick, he’s a shrewd guy, which means he’s not going to show his hand and fawn all over Edelman who bailed Tom Brady and the Patriots out on multiple occasions last season. But, Edelman has yet to hear from his team in regard to a new contract. The best fit for Edelman, who had 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six TDs (151 targets!!) last season, is clearly New England. But if things so sour in negotiations he could make sense in any of the aforementioned cities.
The Best Fit: Patriots, Jets, Colts
UPDATE: The Texans have emerged as a candidate to land Edelman, who just started discussions with the Pats. It’s entirely possible the New England will add Emmanuel Sanders or another upside-laden receiver into the fray as a No. 1 – and make do with Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and company out of the No. 2 and slot.
9. Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) – I apologize if I can’t stop talking about the Patriots, but they really wanted Sanders last offseason and even signed him to an offer sheet before the Steelers matched it. Sanders has amassed 161 catches for 2,030 yards and 11 touchdowns in four seasons with Pittsburgh and he’s full of promise without much downside. He’s fast with good hands and will likely court offers from the Pats, Colts and Chiefs.
The Best Fit: Patriots, Colts, Chiefs
UPDATE: Sanders is probably staying somewhere in the AFC, as both the Patriots and Jets have expressed an interest in adding him. Heading to New England would probably be best for his fantasy value.
10. Andre Roberts (ARI) – Roberts and the Cards haven’t engaged in contract talks yet which means he might be taking off for greener pastures – especially since GM Steve Keim has made a point of saying the Cards have offers on the table for a few other players. The truth is that Roberts doesn’t really add another dimension to the Cards’ offense, but he could be a valuable additional to a few other teams. If Sanders leaves Pittsburgh, the Steelers might want to add Roberts to complement Antonio Brown. The Panthers and Cowboys might also be looking for a steady veteran like Roberts to play a minor role.
The Best Fit: Steelers, Panthers, Cowboys
UPDATE: There’s no news from Arizona regarding resigning Roberts, so I’m betting he skips town in search of a sweeter deal and a better QB.
Honorable mention: Kenny Britt, Danario Alexander, Jacoby Jones, Dexter McCluster, Brandon LaFell
By: Antonio D'Arcangelis — February 20, 2014 @ 2:57 pm
1. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) – The Broncos know that Moreno will transform his excellent 2013 campaign into a big payday in 2014, and they have the depth at RB to let him go without much of a fight. He finished 2013 with 1,586 total yards (including 548 receiving yards on 60 receptions) and 13 TDs. He’s a complete back and could find a home in Indianapolis or Tennessee if he doesn’t get a new deal in Denver.
The Best Fit: Colts, Broncos, Titans
 Ben Tate will land a starting gig in 2014 but it won’t be in Houston. 2. Ben Tate (HOU) – It’s highly unlikely that the Texans will spend the money necessary to keep Tate slogging through limited use in a backup role, where Arian Foster rules the roost and other fresh talent has been emerging. The Browns are in hot pursuit of Tate, according to ESPN, although that report came out before Gary Kubiak (considered for the OC position) headed to Baltimore to run the Ravens offense. Still, the Browns need an all-purpose back with upside, and Tate makes sense in Cleveland as well as Baltimore – where both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce have shown glaring inconsistencies.
The Best Fit: Browns, Ravens, Colts
3. Darren McFadden (OAK) – If McFadden re-signs with the Raiders, it won’t be good for his fantasy value. He’s 26 years old and coming off yet another injury-plagued season, so a fresh start in a new environment could mean another chance at success. Unfortunately, Run-DMC will probably ask for way too much money and end up as a late addition in training camp for a non-contender. In a perfect world, he’d go to the Colts and compete for a starting spot in a potent offense, but there’s just no telling where he’ll land.
The Best Fit: Colts, Cardinals, Raiders
4. Andre Brown (NYG) – Both Brown and the Giants are on amicable terms heading into 2014 and could reach a deal to keep the talented back in New Jersey. Brown’s injury issues aren’t that big of a concern and he’s been effective as a lead back when called upon the past two seasons. There’s a chance he signs a lucrative deal elsewhere, but the smart money is on a reunion with the Mara family and another season playing for the Giants.
The Best Fit: Giants, Steelers, Bucs
5. Rashad Jennings (OAK) – If the Raiders don’t bring back McFadden, they’d be smart to sign Jennings to a one- or two-year deal. The 28-year-old (he’ll be 29 in March) played well last season in 15 games and doesn’t have a lot of wear on his body after spending several seasons as Maurice Jones-Drew’s backup in Jacksonville.
The Best Fit: Raiders, Colts, Cowboys
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) – The Jags seem uninterested in signing MJD, who’s nearly 29 with an odometer that just keeps flipping. He looked worn out last season playing behind a bad offensive line and doesn’t have a shot at a long-term contract on the open market. When somebody signs him, it’ll be an incentive-laden deal that won’t exceed a couple seasons – an offer that makes sense for a team like the Cards, who could use a pass-catching back with experience to transition into the Andre Ellington era.
The Best Fit: Cardinals, Packers, Browns
7. Rashard Mendenhall (ARI) – The once-effective Mendenhall was unimpressive in 2013, rushing for just 687 yards on 217 carries (3.2 YPC) and making little impact in the passing game. In his defense, he’s a grinder, not much of a receiving threat and was best when deployed near the goal line (8 rushing TDs). That’s the kind of job he’ll assume again, either for the Cards or for another team desperate for red zone upside from a big body.
The Best Fit: Bucs, Jaguars, Giants
8. Donald Brown (IND) – Brown may have spent his last day in Indy, where he’s never really gotten the vote of confidence needed to make his mark. He’s still an explosive back with upside in the passing game, but he has to be unhappy with the Colts constant search for a lead back. While the Colts should probably offer him a contract as insurance against the enduring flop that Trent Richardson has become, it’s hard to say if the two sides can come together.
The Best Fit: Colts, Packers, Steelers
9. LeGarrette Blount (NE) – The Pats got a lot out of Blount last season, when the former Buc rejuvenated his career and took over lead back duties after Stevan Ridley fumbled away the job. The Pats will probably offer Blount a couple million bucks for a one-year deal to stick around, which makes sense for both sides. If not, I could see the Dolphins or Jags making a run at him.
The Best Fit: Patriots, Dolphins, Jaguars
10. James Starks (GB) – The Packers have expressed an interest in bringing Starks back after the 27-year-old back had his best season (5.5 yards per carry), albeit with limited touches. Starks has had injury issues but was once a postseason hero for the Packers. If he doesn’t come back to Green Bay, he’d fit in well with the Giants and the Vikings – who will need a capable backup for Adrian Peterson if Toby Gerhart leaves for greener pastures.
The Best Fit: Packers, Giants, Vikings
Honorable mention: Ahmad Bradshaw, Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Dwyer
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