8/1/00
Email Commish
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We debut a name for this weekly column today, it's not great,
but it'll do for now. I am open to suggestions. In fact I will
send a dozen Taylor Made Inner-Gel golf balls to the person who
comes up with the best name for this column! For now it's
''In the Kitchen... with the Commish" because of my propensity
to eat and cook… I am sure we can do better though.
Not long ago my work took me to wilds of Las Vegas, I am a fish
out of water in the big town with bright lights. I love to go
and look at the "sites" but my wife won't let me play with the
big dogs out there. I am much more content blowing a couple hundred
bucks in local pick'ems and fantasy leagues. However, this time
I took some very keen interest at the sports book in the Venetian
(an absolute marvel of human ingenuity that place is!). My favorite
team unabashedly are the Redskins of Washington and I thought
I'd put a harmless $5 bet down on the Skins to win the Super Bowl.
The guy looks at me and says he won't waste his time entering
the bet into the computer. Amazed I looked at him and said "why
not?" His response (or a close facsimile thereof) "you're an idiot…
the Skins are 2:1 and if I take your bet it'll cost more for you
to cash it in than you'd receive." So I looked around and I found
a bet more to my liking. I took the Bucs to win the Super Bowl
for $10 at 5:1 odds. Now I'd get $50 back. What can we learn from
this little experiment in money management?
I took the liberty of printing off the recent betting lines from
Sportsbook.com to see
whom they had as their favorites to win the Super Bowl. Here are
the top 10:
S U P E R B
O W L O D D S |
Washington - 3-1 |
St. Louis - 5-1 |
Jacksonville - 6-1 |
Tampa Bay - 7-2 |
Tennessee - 8-1 |
Indianapolis - 10-1 |
Denver - 10-1 |
Oakland - 15-1 |
Dallas - 20-1 |
Green Bay - 20-1 |
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Here is how you can use the
betting line to your advantage during the draft. I can tell you
for a fact that the guy setting these numbers no a ton more about
the sport and what is going on than you or I. There is a ton of
money riding each week on their abilities and places that lose are
hard to find.
The first thing to remember is that if these teams are in the Super
Bowl hunt then they are probably locks for the play-offs. That means
the key players will be resting during your fantasy play-offs. That
means players from the list above like; Brad Johnson, Stephen Davis,
Michael Westbrook, Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Mark
Brunnell (he'll be hurt anyway), Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Mike
Alstott, Keyshawn Johnson, Steve McNair, Eddie George, Carl Pickens,
Brian Griese, Terrell Davis. Now I'm not saying don't draft these
guys but remember come trading deadline or during the draft that
you will need other players that can play come the end of the season
that will fill in during your play-off run.
To take the above rankings even deeper, look at who the Sportsbook.com
has winning the divisions:
N F
C |
East |
IND (1-1) |
BUF (3-1) |
NYJ (5-2) |
MIA (4-1) |
NE (5-1) |
Central |
JAX
(1-2) |
TEN
(9-5) |
BAL
(7-2) |
PIT
(6-1) |
CIN
& CLE (20-1) |
West |
DEN (8-5) |
SEA (5-2) |
OAK (8-5) |
KC (4-1) |
SD (10-1) |
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A F
C |
East |
WAS (1-4) |
DAL (3-1) |
NYG (5-1) |
ARI (5-1) |
PHI (10-1) |
Central |
TB (5-8) |
MIN (5-1) |
GB (3-1) |
DET (6-1) |
CHI (4-1) |
West |
STL (5-11) |
ATL (5-2) |
CAR (3-1) |
SF (6-1) |
NO (15-1) |
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Looking at those odds you can figure by looking at the schedule
that Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Redskins, Buccaneers, and Rams players
would be players that will get you to the Super Bowl but not players
to let you win the Fantasy Bowl. We need to drill down even deeper
though. Of these teams which are ranked high because of defenses
and not necessarily offenses.
Tampa Bay offensive players may very well be playing late into
the year but who wants them? We all know that they are still a
defense first team with a ground it out offense. The Redskins
are much more defensive minded as well. However, the Colts and
Rams will use high-flying offenses to push them towards the top.
The Jaguars are a suckers bet because with their injuries and
propensity for injury they will never make to big show.
On the other hand some teams will have no chance at making the
play-offs and their players, particularly those in the final years
of their contracts will be playing out the string. Teams like
Arizona (60-1 to win the Super Bowl), New Orleans (150-1 to win
the Super Bowl), New England (40-1 to win the Super Bowl), Seattle
(30-1 to win the Super Bowl) will be good bets to take players
from to fill that play-off void. Drafting players like Jake Plummer,
David Boston, Frank Sanders, Jeff Blake, Joe Horn, Drew Bledsoe,
Brock Huard, Shawn Alexander and others might very well pay-off
big time for you.
If your looking for teams that have lines that are misleading
then you want to look no further than teams like Baltimore. Although
the Lewis injury hurts the potential for this team is equal to
the Packers and Cowboys as they are listed at 20-1 to win the
Super Bowl.
There are a lot of conclusions that can be made from the numbers
on the betting line and as the draft is concerned none are better
than planning your year than predictions to win divisions and
Super Bowl. As is always the case… the numbers listed above are
entertainment purposes only.
We'll see you next week when hopefully we can introduce the name
of the weekly article and give away some golf balls. We'll also
look at the underrated defensive players and how you can juice
up a stale league by using them.
:: comments to the
commish
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