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Game Previews - Week 11, 2003



By Bryan Douglass | 11/13/03

WEEK 11
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Sunday, 4:00 PM EST
HOU at BUF NYJ at IND
STL at CHI SD at DEN
KC at CIN MIN at OAK
ARI at CLE DET at SEA
JAX at TEN GB at TB
BAL at MIA Sunday - 8:30 PM EST
ATL at NO DAL at NE
NYG at PHI Monday - 9:00 PM EST
WAS at CAR PIT at SF

Last Week's Projections: (7-7) 50.0%
Season's Projections: (91-53) 63.2%

Houston (3-6) at Buffalo (4-5) 1:00 PM
Houston is a team of surprise, kind of. They have the talent to succeed offensively versus most NFL teams. They have beaten some quality teams: Miami & Carolina. Thanks to Domanick Davis, they have become a very solid offensive force, and can battle with any team at any pace with just about any style of offense. However, one thing that has been shown (i.e. the loss to Cincy last week) is that this team is much safer in a marathon than a sprint. This team averages only 18 points a game, and when they've lost it has a tendency to get ugly. Though they sport a nice passing game, they cannot afford to get behind early and rely on the arm of Carr to bring them back. With Davis now firmly in place at RB, this team is going to be more successful with a run & grind approach. Against Buffalo, this is going to be more true than normal: Buffalo has the 2nd best passing D in the NFL (allowing only 162 yards passing a game). However, the Bills do give up some rushing yards (about 112 a game). Also, the Bills have a propensity to struggle in low scoring games (they lost last week 10-6 to Dallas, & they lost 17-7 to Miami). If Houston can slow this game down and let Domanick go to work, keeping the score low and eating time off the clock, the Texans could make this game very interesting.

Buffalo is a team of intrigue for me. They are so inconsistent on offense: some weeks they score (31 versus New England, 38 versus Jacksonville, 24 versus Washington), some weeks they don't even show (they currently rank as the 3rd worst scoring team in the league, averaging only 17 points a game!). They have such great talent in the passing game, but Bledsoe has struggled with interceptions, Eric Moulds has struggled with injuries, and Josh Reed has just struggled. Travis Henry is a good running back, but he's not unstoppable. Even when Buffalo has faced a sub-par defense they have struggled to win. One thing is for sure: this is a great week for Bledsoe to get back on track. The Houston pass D is awful: currently ranked as the 4th worst in the NFL, having allowed 16 passing TD's (second most in the NFL), allowing about 240 yards passing a game, and having earned only 8 SACKS (2nd worst total in the NFL). This all speaks well for Buffalo's chances to win: the lack of QB pressure should allow him to avoid the interception bug while allowing Moulds and Reed time to get open downfield and take advantage of the poor Houston secondary. The big player for Buffalo should be Henry: not only does Houston struggle to stop the pass, they are just as bad versus the run (allowing 137 rush yards a game). Henry has been the big time player, not to mention the only point of consistency, for this Bills team. He's running on pride, he's running for his job (whether it will be in Buffalo or elsewhere), and he's giving the Bills a win this week. The Bills hopes for a postseason birth aren't entirely dead, but they are hurting. This, and just about every other remaining game, is a must win game. Look for a heavy dose of Henry, followed by a helping of Moulds and Reed. The Bills should achieve a nice balance on offense, their defense should take it to Houston's passing game, and they should rediscover the taste of victory (which they haven't enjoyed in 3 weeks).

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Travis Henry, Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Domanick Davis, Bills Defense

2nd String: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Josh Reed, Jabar Gaffney, Billy Miller, Kris Brown

Prediction: Texans 13, Bills 24

St. Louis (6-3) at Chicago (3-6) 1:00 PM
How about those Rams? What do you do with a team that gathers only 121 total offensive yards in a game, yet scores 33 points? The Rams are living a more charmed life than Justin Timberlake (admit it fellas: he macks on Brittney Spears during her pure-as-the-driven-snow years, gets dumped as she jumps on the slutty bandwagon, makes millions off a hit song about how bad she screwed him over, and falls into the arms of Cameron Diaz. THAT, my friends, is charmed.). They get Marshall Faulk back, and after scoring his 2nd TD, he had gathered a grand total of -1 yards. He ended up with only 48, but looked good in his first game back against a tough defense. This week is looking pretty good for the Rams: they get to play the Bears! The Bears are among the bottom feeders in the NFL, but are at the high end of that group (does that make sense?). On defense, they are solid against the pass, allowing only 188 pass yards a game. The good news for St. Louis: they are St. Louis. Sometimes in football, the stats don't really mean as much as they might, and this is a great example. Pittsburgh had a pretty solid passing D in Week 8. Bulger lit them up for 375 yards. As long as Torry Holt is on the field, this Bears' defense doesn't stand much of a chance against the pass. Against the run, the Bears aren't so good: they allow 122 rush yards a game and have allowed 8 runs of 20 yards or greater. This looks like a nice game for Marshall Faulk. When Bulger is on the field, he tends to get more carries and with the Bears so vulnerable to big running plays that should be a recipe for success.

The Bears: just when the world is jumping on board with the "this team is improving" t-shirt for 'em, they go out and lay an egg versus the Lions. This team was ready for a 3 game win streak, was ready to let Anthony Thomas blow up and lead them to victory #4, and was ready to convince us all they could at least compete in this league on a weekly basis. So much for all of that. Their reward: one of the most explosive offensive units in the land, not to mention the Rams defense. The Rams are currently ranked 6th overall versus the pass (185 yards a game, 12 interceptions, 22 sacks) and are ranked 16th versus the rush (114 yards a game, only 5 rushing TD's allowed). Many have pointed at Chris Chandler as the point of stability for the recent offensive "surge" of the Bears (compared to the beginning of the season, 10 to 17 points a game can be defined as a "surge" per NFL official rules); however, Anthony Thomas has been the real rock of this unit. It was evident last week as Detroit made him the focal point for their defense, holding the A-Train to just 61 yards and, thus, creating major problems for the Chicago scoring efforts. The Rams should have no problem accomplishing the same (Jamal Lewis posted nice numbers last week, but the A-Train isn't at that level). Their defense is solid and seems to get better with each win. Chicago is improving, but not in leaps and bounds. This is another easy lesson for the Bears, that lesson being that losing sucks, and it really sucks when it's served up St. Louis style. Faulk should get some good fantasy points, Bulger and Holt should be themselves, and the Rams should pick up their 7th win.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Marshall Faulk, Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Jeff Wilkins, Rams Defense, Anthony Thomas, Paul Edinger

2nd String: Marty Booker (Questionable), Isaac Bruce, Chris Chandler, Dez White, Dane Looker, Desmond Clark

Prediction: Rams 28, Bears 16

Kansas City (9-0) at Cincinnati (4-5) 1:00 PM
It seems like everyone was ready to crown Cincy as the underdog favorite to possibly dethrone the best team in the NFL. Then Chad Johnson loaded up the KC billboard with some nice quotes, something about a guaranteed victory for his Bengals. I love Chad Johnson, I think he's one of the best young talents in all of football. But don't forget he's a receiver, and one thing 90% of the WR's in the league like to do is to try and beat their own feet by running their mouths. By the time his career is over, Johnson will likely have predicted not just a win this weekend, but also a playoff berth, a Super Bowl victory, a parting of the seas by his own hands, a cure for cancer as discovered by himself, and an end to world hunger as provided by none other than Chad Johnson (he seems like he might start referring to himself in the third person by that time). I really do love this kid, but this seems like a far-fetched guarantee at best, and giving the Chiefs a motivational tool wasn't a big help either. Here's all you need to know: (a) Priest Holmes is 100% healthy and playing in this game, (b) Cincy's rush D is one of the lower rated units in the NFL, giving up 127 yards a game, (c) Cincy give up 22 points a game while KC scores an average of 32 a game. It's really that simple for KC: run Priest, run. Cincy normally hopes for a scoring sprint, but they won't outscore this Chiefs team and they sure as heck don't want to come from behind. The passing game for KC is solid, the running game for KC is one of the best in the NFL, and the Cincy D, though improving, isn't good enough to stop 'em.

We should mention more about the Cincy offense than Chad Johnson, though he is the bulk of that offense. He's a great talent, and if Cincy is going to keep up in this game they will need another big game for Johnson. Not just Chad, but Rudi as well. Rudi was awesome last week, running for 182 yards. He's not necessarily the best RB in the NFL, but he's not too bad either. KC does have a nice defensive unit: they give up both passing (209) and rushing (123) yards in an average game, but they live off of turnovers and can take advantage of mistakes (3 INT's returned for TD's thus far). Jon Kitna will need a top-notch effort: he has 13 TD's but has 9 INT's to show for it. Cincy cannot turn over the ball in this game. Kitna has been solid, and CJ is a gamer, but they will need a big effort from Rudi Johnson if they hope to contend in this game. The Chiefs have proven they can win any type of game: close games, blowouts, running games, passing games, defensive battles, special team efforts, they win them all (thus far). I'm wary of this team staying undefeated, but I'm going to the well again this week. The Bengals are a nice team with a great coach headed in the right direction. However, they don't have what it takes to beat this Chiefs team. This may be closer than you might expect, but take the Chiefs.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Priest Holmes, Trent Green, Chad Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, Morten Andersen

2nd String: Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, Johnnie Morton (Questionable), KC Defense, Eddie Kennison, Peter Warrick, Matt Schobel, Shayne Graham

Prediction: Chiefs 32, Bengals 24

Arizona (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6) 1:00 PM
This game is hard to get excited about, but there is some intrigue here. Besides the Willie Green b.s., the Marcel Shipp vs. Emmitt Smith debate (not really a debate in my mind, but they won't let me run the Cardinals), and the QB controversy yo-yo in Cleveland , these teams are pretty evenly matched. Let's take a look at the Cardinals. Shipp gives this team a nice running game to go with the air attack. You look at the yardage leaders from last week and Arizona ruled the yardage stats despite the loss, with Blake as the top passer, Shipp as the top rusher (no one ran the ball well in that game), and Boldin in his normal spot as the leading receiver. There is no doubt this team can move the chains, it's a question of scoring. Despite all the yards, the Cards are ranked last in scoring in the NFL, averaging only 14 points a game. They don't get Shipp in position to score in the red zone. They can pass for large chunks, but can't get it into the end zone. They will have a tough time this weekend once again. The Cleveland D isn't stellar, but they are tough. They are ranked 5th versus the pass (182 yards a game, only 7 passing TD's allowed) and though they've given up 125 rushing yards a game, they have allowed only 6 rushing TD's thus far (don't dismiss the competition: they've faced Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, and Edge James - all top tier RB's). Shipp should get some respectable yards, but don't expect too much scoring from him or his teammates. Zona doesn't like to score too often, and Cleveland doesn't like to allow too much.

This game should be a win for Cleveland, if they can score. Though Zona is ranked dead last for scoring, the Browns barely beat them, averaging only 15 points a game. The Browns might get Willie "Puff Puff Give" Green back this week, and he should be pumped to prove his worth. He was just starting to get his groove going before the suspension. He could find those yards again this week, but he'll need some help. For starters, the offensive line better show up. That's a given. The big factor will be the passing game. Arizona gives up less than 200 passing yards a game, but they have allowed 15 passing TD's thus far. The Browns haven't been too successful passing thus far, averaging only 166 yards a game and only 10 TD's through the air thus far. However, they do have some great young talent in the WR ranks: Quincy Carter (though he matches better with Tim Couch) has great hands and Andre Davis is a speedster. The Browns need to get the passing game on track: it will keep the ball moving, it will open up holes for Green/Jackson, and it's Cleveland's best shot at scoring (Zona allows only 105 yards rushing a game). This has the potential to be a much better game than the records would indicate. These teams are evenly matched, and it may be as simple as home field advantage. The Dawg Pound will be out in force, and Arizona seems to be a completely different team on the road. I'm going with better coach (I like Butch Davis, and though this team won't bowl you over just yet, they are on the right track), I'm going with the home team, and I'm taking the Browns in a low-scoring, defensive win.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Browns Defense, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin, Kelly Holcomb

2nd String: James Jackson, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Freddie Jones, Quincy Morgan, Andre Davis, Phil Dawson

Prediction: Cards 14, Browns 17

Jacksonville (2-7) at Tennessee (7-2) 1:00 PM
The Jags are coming off a huge win over Indy, and never were the talents & worth of Fred Taylor more evident. Taylor is a stud, and if he would have avoided the injury bug in previous seasons, he would have been a first round fantasy pick both this year and last. Imagine how good his stats would be with a real offensive line and a consistent passing game! All in good time, Fred. He may find those yards harder to pick up this week. The Titan D is tough and getting better every week. Tennessee sports the top ranked rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 74 yards a game and having allowed only 2 runs of 20 yards or more. That's one tough nut to crack, and the way to crack it is a strong passing performance. That's not likely either. The Titans give up 243 yards passing a game, but they have 25 sacks (3rd most in the league) and 10 interceptions (also a nice number). Jevon Kearse & Kevin Carter: these guys will strike fear in any QB, and Leftwich is the pocket passing type they love to feed on. With Leftwich on the run, and the rushing of Taylor under wraps, the Titans have to be licking their chops. The Jags' offense is improving, and they may find a few yards this week, but they aren't ready for this kind of challenge just yet.

Some would argue the Titans are the best team in the NFL right now, and you could make a compelling case. Steve McNair is the favorite for MVP right now, and rightfully so. Derrick Mason is a great WR, and with Drew Bennett (when healthy) and Justin McCareins are great 2nd and 3rd options. The defense is looking pretty damn good. The only soft spot is the rushing game: Eddie George is not the runner he once was, and (as predicted and hoped for by yours truly) rookie RB Chris Brown started to get some good playing time last week (he was the top rusher for the win over Miami). Together, Brown and George can provide an adequate rushing threat to pick up some much needed ground yards, to punch in the TD runs in the red zone, and to keep opposing defenses honest versus the pass. The Jags' defense is going to encounter problems with this offense. The D versus the rush is nice, currently ranked 4th in the NFL giving up 88 yards a game. However, as we just discussed, the rushing game for the Titans isn't the concern. Against the pass, the Jag's rank 24th in the NFL, giving up 223 yards a game and 15 passing TD's allowed, and don't forget the lack of QB pressure to match (only 11 sacks thus far). No QB pressure versus the Titans equals a loss. McNair can kill you even with the QB pressure, and if you give him time he'll go long to Mason all day long. Still not sure? These teams played two weeks ago: Titans 30, Jags 17, George ran for 88 (a big number for him, and he and Brown should combine for similar numbers), and McNair picked up 187 yards through the air and did enough damage in those yards to win. This time, the match is in Titan country. Expect another Titan win, but this time it could be even more ugly for the Jags.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Steve McNair, Fred Taylor, Derrick Mason, Gary Anderson, Titan Defense

2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Eddie George, Chris Brown, Kyle Brady, Seth Marler, Justin McCareins, Erron Kinney

Prediction: Jags 14, Titans 32

Baltimore (5-4) at Miami (5-4) 1:00 PM
The Ravens are in a pinch. They currently lead the tightest division in football by one game over Cincy, and Cleveland and Pittsburgh are still in the hunt as well (hey, Pitt may have 6 losses, but a team that is 9-7 will get in the postseason dance). This was not a good time to lose Kyle Boller for the year. Boller was steadily improving and, though he wasn't tearing it up, he was getting the hang of the NFL's speed. Now the Ravens turn to Anthony Wright (what happened to their QB of the future from 2 years ago, Chris Redmond?). Wright can be solid, but he's not a QB to wager on. If the load on Jamal Lewis was heavy before, it will pale in comparison to the pressure on him now. He's accounted for roughly 45% of the Ravens' offensive yards already, and without a strong passing game the scoring load will fall at his feet once again this week. So what else is new? This guy has been getting it done all year long, and though you can't expect one player to carry this kind of load all year long, Jamal sure is trying. Think about this: in 1984, when Eric Dickerson set the NFL rushing record for a single season with 2,105 yards, he had about 120 yards less than Lewis has right now. He's on pace to reach 2,000 yards, and if he does it he'll be only the 5th rusher all time to reach the elusive mark. It's not going to be an easy task, but Lewis has impressed me already with his efforts and durability. He's going to have his work cut out for him: Miami comes in with the 2nd best rushing D ins the land. They allow opponents an average of 81 yards rushing yards a game, and have allowed only 5 rushing TD's thus far. They've performed very well against some tough RB's, and Jamal will surely test them. I can't see anyone stopping this guy: they may "contain" him, say 90 yards. But this is definitely going to be a defensive match up, and Lewis is likely to be one of the only offensive performers of the game.

Miami has to be concerned in a major way: it would seem that RB Ricky Williams, the heart and soul of this team, has taken a turn for the worse. Ricky has now gone 6 GAMES without reaching 100 yards rushing. That is an eternity for a guy of Ricky's caliber. This guy is the key for any and all Miami wins, and without him the Fins will continue to struggle no matter whom is throwing the ball. Seriously, I understand the Fins have picked up 3 wins during that span, but do you really believe they would have lost to Tennessee by 24 if Ricky had his game going at all? This is another game were the running style of Williams could benefit the cause of the Fins. The Ravens' D is solid, almost to the level of the Super Bowl year. They come in ranked 4th versus the pass (176 yards a game) and 8th versus the run (94 yards a game). They are riding that cusp that separates winning and losing: they give up 20 points a game but score 22 a game! The Fins have not been as successful breaking the goal line. This game will be a grind it out, defensive, you can score the least type of game. Ricky versus Jamal should be the headline, but with Ricky struggling of late it's tough to judge if the Fins can keep pace. Miami is not a good passing team, and as much as I like Chris Chambers it's up to the QB to get the ball to him. With Ray Lewis, Peter Boulware, Anthony Weaver, and Terrell Suggs patrolling the field and headhunting on WHOEVER is throwing for Miami, it's got to be on Ricky Williams to step up and take this game over. I'm calling the defensive comparison a draw, I'm calling the Redmond-Griese/Fiedler comparison a draw, and I'm putting my money on the hot hand with Jamal Lewis. I think Ricky is a great talent, but he's in a slump and Lewis is on a role. Take Baltimore is a close one.

LATE NEWS: Brian Griese has been named the starter.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Baltimore Defense, Ricky Williams, Chris Chambers, Miami Defense

2nd String: Brian Griese, Anthony Wright, Travis Taylor, James McKnight, Olindo Mare, Matt Stover

Prediction: Ravens 17, Fins 13

Atlanta (2-7) at New Orleans (4-5) 1:00 PM
Can any one explain to me how the Falcons beat the Giants last week? How did that happen? I expected the Falcons to beat the Giants by 20, and I also expected an engraved invitation to the Salma Hayek, Katie Holmes, Beyonce Knowles threesome accompanied by the winning Powerball ticket. How did that happen? The Falcons are the worst team in the NFL, at least I think they are, and they are one player away from exiting stage left from the ranks of the abyss. Well, Mike Vick isn't coming back this week, so they will remain at the bottom until further notice. Warrick Dunn was awesome last week, ringing up the tough Giants' D for 178 yards. Dunn is a good player, but rarely does he put together games like last week. Dunn rarely reaches 100 yards for that matter, and even though the Saints' rush D is horrible it is hard to see Dunn lighting it up 2 weeks in a row. The offensive line for the Dirty Birds is not good at all (they've given up 23 sacks) and it will take a scat-back like Dunn to get the rushing game working for the Falcons. That said, Dunn is the best bet for offense against this Saints D. The Saints give up an average of 130 yards a game. However, they have allowed only 7 rushing TD's thus far. The passing game will not be a factor for the Falcons this weekend: the Saints come in with the 10th ranked passing D, allowing 189 yards a game through the air and having collected a respectable 20 sacks to date. With that, I would say if the Falcons have to rely on the running game for a second week in a row for a win, the prospects for that win aren't so bright.

The Saints are fighting to stay alive in the race to the playoffs. With 5 losses, the battle could be described as "uphill." It could be described as "unlikely." But this is the NFL, and anything is possible. The Saints have the offensive weapons: they average 118 rushing yards a game and 202 passing yards a game, and they score an average of 21 points a game. If they can keep team from scoring so much (about 23 points a game), they can turn those games into wins. Deuce McAllister is the key to this team - there's a revelation! He's a consistent, powerful runner that can punish any team with a prolonged, abusive attack. I really like Joe Horn. It seems like every week this guy is suppose to miss the game with injury, yet he continues to not only play but he catches everything airborne and makes key plays when his team really needs him. Aaron Brooks may be enjoying his most productive year: he's thrown only 6 interceptions thus far, and compared to 13 TD's that looks pretty nice. Against Atlanta, they should all have good games. The Falcons are ranked dead last in passing defense (263 yards a game) and 3rd to last in rushing defense (144 yards a game, 11 runs for more that 20 yards). Deuce could use a nice game with some breakout runs. He's normally a guy that lives between the tackles, and he'll continue to do so this week. However, he could find some nice 30 yarders between those tackles. Atlanta is still an awful, awful team. Don't let last week's win fool you: they suck. They won't stop this New Orleans offense, Deuce won't fumble the ball in the red zone like Tiki Barber, and even with a not-so-good defense the Saints should role in this one.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Deuce McAllister, Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn (Questionable), Alge Crumpler, John Carney

2nd String: Doug Johnson, Warrick Dunn, Donte Stallworth, Ernie Conwell, TJ Duckett, Peerless Price, Jay Feeley

Prediction: Dirty Birds 10, Saints 23

NY Giants (4-5) at Philadelphia (6-3) 1:00 PM
OK, so did anyone come up with a real good reason to explain how these Giants lost to Atlanta last week? OH, I did! Tiki Barber dropped more balls than….. I won't go there (come on, I may work a little "blue" at times in the humor, but even I won't go there). Go ahead and insert your own bad joke there. It's amazing how this team, all this talent, can pull together and turnover the ball so much as part of what appears to be a team effort. "Hey Tiki, don't sweat that fumble on the goal line, it's cool. Here, let me throw this ball here to the other team, and then my interceptions will take some of the sting off your mistakes." This team is so disappointing, and they come into a game with division rival Philly, a team that has fought through disappointment and strife to stay in a position to pounce. Here's the numbers: the Giants have the 3rd best passing offense in the game (257 yards a game, but have allowed 12 INT's), and they run for 110 yards a game (but have laid down 10 fumbles combined, having lost 8 of them). How is this team going to get better? Are you going to sit Tiki Barber? Who do you turn to? The only consistent performer on this team is Amani Toomer: he's a stud and worthy of more touches, but he's reliant on Kerry Collins to get him the ball. Toomer could light up the injured Philly defensive backfield, but if you are looking at Kerry and saying, "Gee, I'm going to put the mortgage on him," you need to seek professional help (just like Kerry, that's an unnecessary jab but if he continued to screw you over you'd be tempted to dump on him too). Maybe you could count on Tiki: the Eagles do allow about 113 rush yards a game, and have allowed a handful of long runs. However, if you think betting on Tiki is a good idea, go a couple of sentences back, read what I wrote about Collins, and repeat by filling in "Collins" with "Barber."

I've come to a conclusion: Donovan McNabb is not likely to be a passing QB (at least not this year). He's got an arm, but now that I've looked back on his career thus far and have reminisced on some of his past performances, I believe he won't ever be the pass percentage, fantasy yard stud guy we would all like to see him become. I saw, in the MNF win over Green Bay (a great game to watch), McNabb finally set himself free to run the ball. Back when McNabb killed the Bears and knocked them out of the playoffs after a great season, I realized then that this kid was going to make him mark running the ball, and the same holds true today. He has hesitated to run the ball to often this year. When he runs, good things happen. He did finally fire a throwing TD to Todd Pinkston in that game, but his running set up the opportunity to score. He needs to lead this team, and he's going to do it more with his feet than with his arm. Granted, it would be nice to see more of a passing game in Philly, but what works works, and winning will always override the need to look good. Give McNabb credit for that: he may not be pretty, he may not know how to hit anyone with a strong zipper pass in the end zone, but he keeps winning. The Giants D is tough: they give up 122 yards rushing a game and give up only 197 yards passing a game. That said, they have no problem giving up scores (just under 22 points a game). This game has the Eagles written all over it: this game looks to be low scoring, pretty tight, and very important in the race for a division title. I'm taking Philly: they win ugly (but they keep winning), they don't turn over the ball nearly as much, and they are at home. Give the edge to McNabb's feet and Tiki's butter fingers. Until I see differently, I will have a hard time believing the Giants are a solid pick over any team. Take the Eagles.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Amani Toomer, Donovan McNabb, LJ Smith, David Akers

2nd String: Kerry Collins, Tiki Barber, Correll Buckhalter (Questionable), Brian Westbrook, Deuce Staley, James Thrash, Jon Ritchie, Ike Hilliard (Questionable), Jeff Feagles, Giants Defense,

Prediction: Giants 17, Eagles 20

Washington (4-5) at Carolina (7-2) 1:00 PM
The Redskins reminded me of ……. was that the Redskins at the beginning of the season I was watching? Seattle had 0 sacks against the QB with the most sacks in the NFL. The offensive line finally regrouped and gave Ramsey some decent protection. Well, this week they face the Panthers, and I'd warn you that maybe this Skins' offensive line should be labeled like a condom: wearing this device does not guarantee 100% protection. It's safe to say Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker, and Kris Jenkins will be after Ramsey like pit bulls. So how are the Redskins going to attack this Panther defense? It is true the Panthers are vulnerable to the pass, giving up 223 yards through the air a game. However, if you want to keep the dogs off your QB you better have a respectable running game, and the Skins do not. Trung Candidate is capable of some yards and keeping the opposition guessing. However, he is far from a game breaker and he won't put too much fear in the Panthers. Without the running, there will be no gunning (cheesy, but catchy, like the theme from Sanford & Son). Bottom line: Washington scores 19 on average, Carolina allows 18 on average. Something has to give, and NFL tendencies rule in favor of the defense.

Carolina seems to have discovered their abilities on offense. Say what you like about Jake Delhomme, but he's answered the call several times now and can be directly accredited for 2 wins by himself (including last week's win over Tampa Bay). The kid has true talent and is learning fast. The biggest surprise of team has been the emergence of Steve Smith. Smith has battled personal demons in the past (or, more to the point, he's fought his own teammates and had a few bouts with some anger issues, but hey…. HE'S A FOOTBALL PLAYER, not a Blue Cross director). This year he's tearing up the field and catching everything thrown his way. He's developed a great chemistry with Delhomme and has become a great offensive compliment to the Stephen Davis/DeShaun Foster show. The Cats are throwing, the Cats are running, and they play defense. All of these combine for a winner, and a team many are labeling the best in the NFC. These Redskins, despite tons of individual talent, do not have the ability to stop too many teams this year. They rank 26th in scoring defense in the NFL, giving up 24 points a game, they give up about 130 yards rushing a game, and they allow 210 passing yards a game to opponents. None of these numbers bodes well for this game with Carolina. Stephen Davis may sit out one more week, as the Panthers are planning on making a playoff run and would like to keep their best weapon healthy and fresh. DeShaun Foster may be the best backup RB in the NFL, so the Cats won't lose much running production. I don't believe the Skins will do anything spectacular on defense, and that's what it will take for the Panthers to lose. Take the hot hand, take the home team, and take the better crew. Panthers should win, and they should win easily.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Panther Defense, Jake Delhomme, Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Laveranues Coles, Steve Smith, John Hall, John Kasay

2nd String: Patrick Ramsey, Trung Candidate, Rod Gardner, Ricky Proehl, Kris Mangum

Prediction: Skins 17, Panthers 27

NY Jets (3-6) at Indianapolis (7-2) 4:05 PM
The Jets are exciting, just like when that awesome Victoria Secret commercial comes on during sitcoms, or when the drive thru accidentally gives you a Quarter Pounder instead of a Double Cheese, or when you smell the pizza guy pull out in your driveway, or when …. wait, I'm revealing WAY too much about my personal life (and how boring it truly is). I love watching Chad Pennington. He's so damn good, and he's made his team so much better. How many of you watch way too much football coverage on ESPN? Here is a perfect example of why they shouldn't hire some of the ex-players they have: Brian Cox laid into Santana Moss early in the season, claiming he would never be a true NFL WR and was not worthy of the position at this level. Yep, he really nailed that one, if he was talking about this dude I met the other day named Santana, but his last name was Marcos and he was washing cars. Moss has been AWESOME since Pennington's return, and I'm blaming both of them. The entire team struggled mightily under Vinny Testaverde, and though Moss showed glimpses of his potential they never really picked up chemistry with each other. Penny and Moss had the mojo working in preseason, and it's evident the effect Penny's return has had on the passing game, not to mention the mood and attitude of the entire team. Now, all this said, they are coming into the home of one of the league's elite teams. The Colts have been great this season, and the defense has showed signs of greatness. I've gone on rants about Dwight Freeney: when you open your NFL catalog to look at the in-stock jerseys, and you see a player on that list, he's a stud. Right now, Freeney is available in home colors, sizes M to XXXL. Total stud, and he'll give Pennington a hard time. Right now, the Colts have the 8th best passing D in the league, giving up only 185 yards a game. Pennington will go after anyone, and with what I've seen I have no reason to believe he can't find Moss open on the field. However, the Jets would be best served with a solid running game (Indy gives up about 126 run yards a game). Curtis Martin has been a soldier for a long time, and he's had a couple of nice games in a row. He'll need to really step up in this match: if he can find some good yards early, and make the Indy defense play honest and guard against the run, then Penny will have less pressure and more opportunities to make plays, and that can only help the Jets.

And, we've come to the Indy section of the preview, another team labeled by many as, possibly, the NFL's best. Then they go and blow a close game to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, and, thus, many have jumped off that bandwagon. The Colts have a fantastic offense, no arguing that point. But to take a lose to a team struggling as badly as Jacksonville had been, especially after the Jags tried to hand them the win with late mistakes, speaks to the parity of the NFL (one of the best aspects of this league), the vulnerability of any and all teams to a loss at the hand of any other NFL team. Any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday: the best cliché in all of sports. The Colts had better bring their Edge this weekend. The Jets are riding an emotion surge provided by the return of their team leader (uh, that would be Pennington), and the Jets' defense is not as soft as their record might indicate. However, the Jets have proven to be vulnerable to the run. They've struggled to stop opposing runners that are of the same caliber of Edgerrin James. Manning likes to throw, Harrison likes to pass (his health status is still uncertain at press time), but James is the fulcrum of this offense. Lesser teams have let Manning and company win with little to no run support, but the Jets are not such a team. The Jets' D currently ranks 3rd against the pass, and if Indy doesn't have Harrison at 100% the struggle to attack by air could prove to be difficult. James has been solid since returning from injury, but he's due for a dominant performance. He'd love nothing more than to lead his team to a statement win. The Jets are one of the NFL's worst defenses against the run, allowing 155 rush yards a game (ranked last in the NFL). Edge needs to take advantage, his team needs him to take advantage, and they need a win over a competitive team for a confidence boost and to place the Colts back in the upper echelon of the NFL. I'm not in the mood to predict a blowout, and I won't be as long as Pennington is on the field. The Jets should make this a fun game to watch, but give the edge to Edge, and take the Colts.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Edge James, Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison (Doubtful), Mike Vanderjagt

2nd String: Curtis Martin, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Becht, Marcus Pollard, Curtis Conway, Doug Brien, Jets Defense, Indy Defense

Prediction: Jets 21, Colts 27

San Diego (2-7) at Denver (5-4) 4:05 PM
How about them Chargers? It figures: I took Tomlinson off the 1st String for the first time ever, figuring the Vikings would jump to a quick lead and, once again, LT would be the forgotten man. That worked out about as well an anal cavity search. Will he show up big again this week versus Denver? I would bet the dog on it (but, of course, I don't really like my dog, so take that for what it's worth). He has a great history of nice games versus Denver, and one could only hope that Coach Schottenheimer will FINALLY get a clue and let this guy do his thing. Let me also take a bite of crow for Doug Flutie: I believe I stated, "The Chargers are the worst team in football and turning to a 41 year old QB isn't the answer." Here's the thing: Flutie has been a nice player in his time, but I don't buy the argument he'd be a potential Hall of Famer if other teams had seen his potential and given him a shot. He's had his shots, he's done well and he's struggled, and give him his due but keep it realistic. Flutie may have a tougher go this week as Denver's pass D currently ranks 11th in the league, giving up only 192 yards a game. Their rush D isn't too bad either, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground a game. Key stat for LT fans: the Broncos have given up 7 runs of 20 yards or more. Tomlinson loves to break it out for a sprint, and he'll get his shots. The Broncos are missing two of their starting LB's (John Mobley, one of the most underrated players in the game, and Ian Gold), and if LT can take advantage of the missing run stuffers he could put up big numbers once again (by the way, he's quietly become the league's #4 rusher, despite the struggles of his team and his lack of opportunities).

Denver is coming off their much needed bye week. This team is suffered through some tough injuries, including Jake Plummer's foot, the previously mentioned LB's, Jason Elam's knee, and now Mike Anderson's lung condition. Elam is still a question mark, but it looks like Jake is ready to return, and his timing couldn't be better. They've lost 4 of their last 5 games, and when you are in a division with KC you can't afford to lose too many. I remember, in the preseason, when the Denver fans were BOOING Plummer for struggling a bit and throwing some questionable passes. Now all those fans are wearing #16 jerseys and are yelling for his return! One guy you can guarantee will be happy to see Jake back on the field is Ashley Lelie. Lelie was on his way to a big season with Jake, and since Plummer's injury Lelie has struggled to do much of anything. It's just obvious that these two guys have chemistry and are a great match on the field. Clinton Portis will be happy to see Jake back as well. Portis' style of running is normally dependant on a respectable passing threat to open up holes in the offensive line and to keep would be tacklers in the backfield. Don't get me wrong: Portis is a great RB thus far. But it is undeniable: he's a much better performer when Jake is on the field. Despite the win last week, the San Diego defense is still horrible (young, and learning, but currently horrible). They rank 26th versus the pass and 24th versus the run. Minnesota had a rough time stopping San Diego last week, but they did move the ball and they did score 21 points. This is a great game for Plummer to get his legs and arm back. He does have a propensity for interceptions, and he might throw a couple this week as he gets reacclimated. However, his chances of finding yards and finding open receivers downfield should override these potential problems. Portis is going to have a field day on this defense. It should be a good day for Denver offensively, and as long as they can keep LT some restrained then they should pull out of the funk with a win.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Jake Plummer, Shannon Sharpe

2nd String: Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, David Boston, Doug Flutie, Jason Elam, Antonio Gates, Steve Christie, Denver Defense

Prediction: Bolts 14, Broncos 23

Minnesota (6-3) at Oakland (2-7) 4:15 PM
What has happened in Minnesota? They've hit a major skid, having lost 3 in a row including a tough loss to division rival Green Bay, an unimaginable loss to the lowly Giants, and an even worse loss to the Chargers. They need to find a win, and they have yet ANOTHER chance this weekend in Oakland. The offense of the Vikes is no mystery: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams. They've been a strong trio this year. The wild card is Michael Bennett. Many (including myself) thought Bennett would get good reps last week, as many were predicting (including myself once again) that the Vikes would role over the Bolts and this would give them a good chance to give Michael Bennett some good snaps. It didn't happen that way. It could this week, as the Oakland defense is not so good. The Raiders give up about 200 yards passing a game, so Daunte to Randy could be as effective as ever. They also give up 153 yards rushing a game (2nd worst in the NFL), and this should be the point of attack for the Vikings. Oakland has not been able to stop anyone from running the ball, and a weak defense like this could provide a great opportunity for Bennett to break back into the NFL with a bang. One thing is for sure: the Vikings need to win. They will be pumped and looking for blood. I'd expect a strong performance from all the major players for the Vikings, and I think Bennett could have a great chance to join that list again.

Oakland is hurting. Wait, they aren't hurting, they are officially at count 7 of the standing 8 (little boxing reference for ya'). With both their 1st and 2nd string QB's on the bench for a while, they have turned to Rick Mirer to lead the offensive charge. Mirer did better than expected last week, and kept his Raiders in it till the end against the Jets. A nice performance for the journeyman QB, but don't expect it every week. The biggest surprise last week for Oakland was the reemergence of RB Tyrone Wheatley, who was the leading rusher in the game with 75 yards (he was part of a group of RB's that combined for a total of 169 rushing yards last). Wheatley is a powerful guy, and he could be a factor this week once again. "How's that Bryan?" If Oakland hopes to win this one, they need to slow this game down, keeping the Vikes' offense off the field by utilizing the weak Viking rush D (currently ranked 27th in the NFL, giving up 129 yards a game on the ground). Wheatley is a great match for this defense: his hard nosed style of running will punish the Vikings' defensive line into submission, allowing bigger rush plays and keeping pressure off of Rick Mirer. It looks, to me, like Oakland's only hope. The Vikes do have a horrible defense, and their pass ranking is even worse than their rush defense (against the pass, they rank 30th and give up 238 yards a game). The problem is Rick Mirer: he's capable of playing QB for this team, but he's not Rich Gannon, he can't throw for huge yards, and he won't get the bulk of the offensive scoring. That said, this is a great game for Minnesota: they should be able to take full advantage of a weak Oakland defense, jump out to a quick and big lead, and rest on the legs of Michael Bennett and Moe Williams as they ride to victory.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams, Sebastian Janikowski

2nd String: Michael Bennett, Charlie Garner (Questionable), Jerry Porter, Nate Burleson, Aaron Elling, Tim Brown, Rick Mirer, Tyrone Wheatley, Teyo Johnson

Prediction: Vikes 28, Raiders 16

Detroit (3-6) at Seattle (6-3) 4:15 PM
Watching Detroit is very similar to the family holidays, when you have to see your aunt that just "rediscovered religion." You show up, and though it's painfully nauseating and brings on thoughts of suicide, you continue to tolerate it just to get to the meal (or in this case, just so you can see the two or three decent plays of NFL football). In this case, Joey Harrington is the meal. He's struggling without a supportive cast, but he's still capable of amazing you with his abilities and talents. This kid is the real deal, and thought the Lions won last week with 4 FG's, it was Harrington that set up those field goals. Face it: if Charles Rogers was healthy, this team would surprise many. However, as it stands, this team is void of such threats right now. There is no real running threat (I'd still like to see rookie Artose Pinner as a starter, but it sounds like his health is still an issue); there is no go-to receiver (remember with Az-Zir Hakim was in St. Louis, tearing up the box scores? It's not nearly as easy when you don't line up across from Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt.), and without some sort of consistent support for Harrington this team will struggle to win against anyone. This week they face a tough Seattle defense: they give up 200 yards passing a game and 118 yards rushing a game, but have kept opponents to an average score under 20 points. Detroit has struggled just to get 14 points a game (they average about 16 a game), and they will struggle again in Seattle this week. Ray Rhodes, defensive coordinator for Seattle, will have his team ready. Chad Brown will be patrolling the line, and he'll give Harrington all he can handle and more.

Seattle is a tough team to figure out. You look at the record and it's obvious they are a good team. However, take a look at those losses: they lost by 7 last week to the struggling Redskins (they didn't get a single sack against the QB with the most sacks thus far), they've lost by 22 to Green Bay (I can see and forgive losing to the Pack, but by 22 points?), and they've lost by 3 to Cincinnati (Cincy is improving, but they are definitely not as talented as Seattle). Also, look at some of those wins. They beat the Rams by 1 (good win, but close), they beat the 49ers by 1, they beat Chicago by 7, and they beat Pittsburgh by 7 (they blew out their first two opponents, fyi). They tend to keep it nice and cozy, but they win more than not. It is hard to see how this team doesn't score more often: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback, Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson. Those are some nice offensive weapons. It seems they often play down to their opponents, and they also battle the turnover bug (interceptions can ruin the West Coast Offense in a heartbeat. I have enjoyed seeing young RB Maurice Morris getting some carries. I feel this team doesn't run the ball enough, and the Alexander-Morris tandem gives the team a nice mix of speed and power. Let's just say it: I hate the West Coast offense, and if this encourages more running then I'm all for it. That said, the passing game is the best approach for Seattle this week. The Detroit D is pretty good against the run (giving up 111 yards a game), but they are not so good versus the pass (giving up 210 yards a game and having allowed over twice as many passing TD's as rushing). By the way, I'd be neglectful if I didn't mention rookie LB Boss Bailey: this kid has major skills (2nd for team tackles with 50, 2 sacks thus far, and has given the Lions at least one good pass defender; keep tabs on him, he's going to be a stud for years to come). I get emails every week from those of you with Koren Robinson on your fantasy teams (as I have him on most of mine): he's struggled and has not had a real dominant game yet. This is a good chance for K-Rob to shine. Darrell Jackson is a great talent, and if he can hold on to the ball you know he'll get his catches. K-Rob did pick up some nice yards last week, so let's give him this game to improve our outlook. The Seahawks have great receiving weapons, and they should take advantage of the weak Detroit defense on their way to win #7, and I expect this win to be more convincing than most Seattle wins.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback, Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson, Joey Harrington, Jason Hanson, Itula Mili, Josh Brown, Seattle Defense

2nd String: Shawn Bryson, Az Hakim, Maurice Morris, Bill Schroder, Itula Mili, Mikhael Ricks

Prediction: Lions 13, Seahawks 30

Green Bay (4-5) at Tampa Bay (4-5) 4:15 PM
This is going to be a great game. Never mind the stupid records, never mind the recent struggles, never mind all the crap you might be over thinking, and never freakin' mind your fantasy teams (ok, maybe that's asking a little too much, but my point stands: you don't have to be a fantasy head to enjoy this game). The Packers and Bucs are two teams with so much in common, yet with so little in common. The Packers: great offense, horrid defense. The Bucs: great defense (usually, not always but usually), struggling offense. Both teams are capable of big wins and utterly heartbreaking losses (i.e. last week's games for both squads). Let's start with the Cheese. I got one thing right about last week's MNF game: Ahman Green blew up that Philly defense. Too bad it wasn't enough to win. Anyone that knows this team at all can tell you this team relies so heavily on Ahman Green that you might still call them Brett Favre's Packers, but Brett Favre calls them Ahman Green's Packers. He is capable of so much, but much like his team, he can break your heart with one fumble. He's still battling the fumble bug, but he more than makes up for it in yards and TD's. He'll take a crack at a Tampa defense that has struggled this year to stop the run. They give up just a touch over 100 yards a game (104 to be exact), and have allowed only 5 rushing TD's, but they have given up some big yards to RB's just like Green: Stephen Davis for 142 in Week 2, Garrison Hearst for 117 in Week 7, and Deuce McAllister for 110 in Week 9. Green will show up and he'll run the ball. However, as the Pack showed last week, they can't rely on Green's rushing alone. Brett has got to throw, and Donald Driver has got to get off a game worthy of his talent. The guy has the heart of a lion, but he has only 1 TD thus far. Now you know the Tampa D-line will be up and gunning for Favre. Warren Sapp and Favre have this lovely relationship, and I'm sure they'll meet up again in this one. Favre has to get the ball downfield, and he's got a shot for success. Tampa holds down the passing yards (185 a game), but they have struggled at times (see Jake Delhomme for instance). If Green Bay hopes to win, they'll need a big time game from their veteran leader.

The Tampa offense started off like gangbusters. They looked to be a whole new team, led by Coach Jon Gruden who turned journeyman Rich Gannon into an MVP, and it looked like Brad Johnson had started off down a similar road earlier in the season. However, it has been hard for Johnson to do this consistently as the season has worn on. He has good games (threw for 323 two weeks ago versus New Orleans), but he's laid a couple of eggs along the way. One player that has emerged in the last few weeks is none other than Keyshawn "Give me the Damn Bench" Johnson. He had all but removed himself from consideration in fantasy world, but lately he's been on a tear. Along with Keenan McCardell (who has made himself a weekly starter amongst fantasy buffs), they make a great duo on the field for Johnson to employ. They'll have some great opportunities against this porous Green Bay defense. This Packer D has blown more than its share of games this season already, including last week's loss to Philly. They do ok versus the run, allowing 114 yards a game on average. However, against the pass is a totally different story: they are currently ranked 28th in the NFL, giving up 235 yards a game to opponents and 13 passing TD's thus far. This is great news for a Bucs team that is ripe for a win and is heavily rooted in the Jon Gruden passing game. Their rushing is respectable. Michael Pittman is having what may be his best year to date with 563 yards (I should mention he has 0 rushing TD's, and though he has 4 fumbles he's lost only 1, but some scoring would be nice). He helps move the ball, but make no mistake about it, Tampa scores with the arm of Brad Johnson. The man has 18 TD's (tied for #1 with Peyton Manning in the NFL), and the Bucs are the exception to the rule in the red zone. They like to pass, and he spreads the wealth (8 different receivers with TD's for Tampa). There is no way the Pack can stop this. They don't cover well, they don't get very consistent QB pressure, and if you can't do either of those versus this Bucs offense you won't keep them out of the end zone. Look for Tampa to stay alive in the playoff race: 6 losses is a tough number, especially in the NFC when hunting for a Wild Card (Carolina is going to win the division by the way). Their defense will be pumped, and though Ahman Green may do some damage, look for the Pack passing game to struggle. Combined with a bad defense, it's too much for the Pack to overcome.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Ahman Green, Brad Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Brett Favre, Ryan Longwell, Martin Gramatica, Buc Defense

2nd String: Michael Pittman, Donald Driver, Javon Walker, Keyshawn Johnson, Todd Yoder, Bubba Franks

Prediction: Pack 17, Bucs 23

Dallas (7-2) at New England (7-2) 8:30 PM
How can you not like Bill Parcells? Seriously. I don't care if you are an Eagles fan, I don't care if you are a Giants fan, I don't care if you hate the white man, I don't care. The guy is amazing! 7 freakin' wins for this Dallas team is just flat out amazing! They win low scoring games, they win high scoring games, they win defensively, they win offensively, and best of all, Parcells is never happy. I'm sorry: he was happy last week during his walk to his car. Then he got pissed again. You've got to love this guy. How many coaches, in all of sports, can get away with his hard-nosed attitude, his over-the-top motivational tactics, and make it all work so damn well? He's got a true test this week, and you better believe, though every game is a test for Dallas, that this game right here will truly show us just how good and how real this Cowboy team is right now. New England is one tough defense. The good thing for Dallas is they are a bit vulnerable against the pass, but calling it "vulnerable" may be an overstatement. Against the rush, the Pats are ranked 7th overall, allowing only 92 yards a game and have allowed only 1 rush over 20 yards thus far. The Dallas RB's are not up to this challenge at all. However, the Pats give up 215 yards worth of airtime on average, and this plays well to the Dallas offense. I rank Quincy Carter as my biggest surprise of the NFL this year: he's thrown some picks (9) and his rating isn't too impressive, but he's getting it done and he's spreading the field and hitting all his targets with great success. He'll need his A game and his offensive line will need to be strong this week: although the Pats give up some yards, they've gathered 21 sacks thus far (and without their best LB Rosevelt Colvin for most of it). They will get in Carter's grill, but the kid's got great feet and has shown he can pass with strength and accuracy on the run. Dallas won't run, but they will pass, and if they can get the ball downfield and avoid Ty Law, Eugene Wilson, and Rodney Harrison they could put up some points.

Tom Brady has gotten himself back on the fantasy radar this year. He's been money for the Pats, throwing at 60% and just over 7 yards a catch, he's kept his team in points and in games. Make no mistake: this is a defensive New England team, but Brady is the leader and if he can't get it going they don't win. The running game is ok, but nothing too scary. Deion Branch has quietly put together a nice season and overtaken Troy Brown as the leading receiver, though both guys have only 2 TD's thus far. Despite the lack of a true scoring talent, this team puts up some points (averaging an average of 20 a game, but they have scored big against some tough teams including 38 on Tennessee and 30 on Denver). They are not likely to find the same kind of numbers against this tough Dallas defense. Dallas ranks numero uno (that's #1 for those of you that don't watch Dora the Explorer, or Telemundo for the babes) in scoring defense, allowing only 15 points on average a game. Impressive is the word that pops into mind. Unfortunately for the Pats, their strength is against the pass: they again rank #1, giving up only 149 passing yards a game. This is the key stat in my mind. I've spoken ad nauseam about Roy Williams: he's a stud. No one talks enough about Derek Ross or Terence Newman (personally, I'd mention Dat Nguyen, La'Roi Glover, and Greg Ellis as well, as they are responsible for the much of the QB pressure for this team). These guys can cover so well they are sure to give the Patriots fits. Oh, I should mention the Boys also rank #3 against the run, allowing only 85 yards a game. New England's running game doesn't pose a big threat anyway, so Dallas is looking pretty good. This is my game of the week, I'll Tivo it, probably watch it at least twice. This has the makings of a great defensive battle, and I'm giving the edge to the visiting Dallas Cowboys. It's hard for me to wrap my head around this, but I'm going to pick the Boys to go 8 & 2. They are rolling, and I'm more than happy to jump on the bandwagon for the sake of my mindset and, most importantly, or the sake of this preview and my picks!

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Dallas Defense, Pats Defense, Quincy Carter, Tom Brady, Terry Glenn, Billy Cundiff

2nd String: Joey Galloway, Troy Hambrick, Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch, Troy Brown (Questionable), Antonio Bryant, Daniel Graham, Jason Witten

Prediction: Cowboys 20, Pats 13

Pittsburgh (3-6) at San Francisco (4-5) Mon 9:00 PM
Now if the Dallas Cowboys are the big surprise of the year, you'd have to rank the Steelers as the biggest disappointment of they year. They are loaded with talent, yet they are all but dead for the postseason and have already started to look to next year (benching Dewayne Washington for Deshea Townsend was a big sign, as Washington is going to be a salary cap casualty at year's end). That doesn't mean they won't be gunning for a big win on Monday Night. They have the weapons to beat any team if they can avoid the turnover bug and get the job done. Tommy Maddox has suffered the brunt of the blame from the public thus far: 11 interceptions will do that to a QB. However, Maddox is still a capable QB and with the targets he has on the field it's hard to imagine he'll continue to struggle forever. He has topped 2000 yards already, and last week's trouncing of Arizona was a step in the right direction. Like many fantasy players, I wonder what is going on with Plaxico Burress. The answer is easy: Hines Ward. Hines has 60 receptions thus far to Plaxico's 35, and that is the big difference. These two normally share the field well, and it used to be Plaxico was the big yardage guy while Ward picked up the bulk of the scoring. This year Ward is doing it all: 8 TD's with 717 yards thus far is very impressive, and why would Maddox turn away from the hot hand. Just so you know, I'll probably continue to list Burress as a 1st Stringer: he's too good to leave off the list and he could blow up for 200 and 2 TD's at any time (and I don't want your emails when he does!). They come into this week looking to hit all the receivers as the Niner's passing D isn't so good: they give up 200 yards a game and have allowed 13 passing TD's thus far. However, Maddox will have some trouble as the Niners do get to the QB a good amount of the time (27 sacks thus far, #2 in the NFL, lead by Julian Peterson and Andre Carter, great talents and you should remember the names). It's hard to count on the running of Bettis or Zereoue: neither has been horrible but both have yet to put up a big game). Besides, the Niners currently rank 5th in rushing D, so look for Pitt to pass early and often in this one, and they should find success.

At print time, ESPN is reporting though Jeff Garcia is listed as healthy, he's still a bit hampered by the high ankle sprain, thus Tim Rattay is likely to start. What does this mean? Rattay looked pretty good in his last start, gathering 236 yards and 3 TD's versus the Rams. He'll have a tough day at work on Monday as he's facing one of the best defenses in football. Pitt currently ranks 12th versus the pass (194 yards a game with 23 sacks). However, the Steelers have allowed 14 air TD's so far, so bump Terrell Owens into your starting rotation this week fantasy geeks. Rattay and Owens are like the Beav and Eddie Haskell: they are best friends and love to give the mom a hard time (making Jeff Garcia the mom, take that how you may). I do believe Owens when he says Rattay has a longer arm, and it showed in the win over the Rams two weeks ago. The only concern, and it is a big concern, is the rushing. Pitt ranks 6th versus the run, giving opposing RB's only 92 yards a game on average. Garrison Hearst is a great RB, and he's been doing it for years, but he'll have a tough go this week. If you look at the wins for San Fran, you'll notice a glaring similarity: they've all been big rushing games for the Niners (162 versus Chicago, 142 versus Detroit, 212 versus Tampa, 165 versus the Rams). In the bulk of their losses, they've not gathered this type of rushing yards. If the Niners can't run with any success against Pittsburgh, they won't have such an easy time passing. Owens will keep them in the game, but I'm not on the Rattay bandwagon just yet, and I fear the Pitt D will be too much Hearst and Barlow to get those important running yards. Hines Ward will be the difference. The Steelers will run, but not for anything more than to keep the defense honest. I believe the Steelers are looking to go on a roll, and this is Monday Night. I haven't done so well with Monday Night games. I think this one will be close, and I'm giving the edge to the Steelers. Maddox will have a big game, Hines Ward will be himself, and Plaxico will turn it on in this one. Along with Randle El, there is just too much for this sub par Niner's D to cover. I'm taking the Steel Curtain, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Hines Ward, Pitt Defense, Terrell Owens, Tommy Maddox, Plaxico Burress, Jeff Reed

2nd String: Garrison Hearst, Tim Rattay, Kevan Barlow, Jerome Bettis (Questionable), Amos Zereoue, Antwaan Randle El, Tai Streets, Jay Riemersma

Prediction: Steelers 20, Niners 17