Last Week's Projections: (7-7)
50.0%
Season's Projections: (91-53)
63.2%
Houston (3-6) at Buffalo
(4-5) 1:00 PM
Houston is a team of surprise, kind of. They have the talent to
succeed offensively versus most NFL teams. They have beaten some
quality teams: Miami & Carolina. Thanks to Domanick Davis, they
have become a very solid offensive force, and can battle with any
team at any pace with just about any style of offense. However,
one thing that has been shown (i.e. the loss to Cincy last week)
is that this team is much safer in a marathon than a sprint. This
team averages only 18 points a game, and when they've lost it has
a tendency to get ugly. Though they sport a nice passing game, they
cannot afford to get behind early and rely on the arm of Carr to
bring them back. With Davis now firmly in place at RB, this team
is going to be more successful with a run & grind approach.
Against Buffalo, this is going to be more true than normal: Buffalo
has the 2nd best passing D in the NFL (allowing only 162 yards passing
a game). However, the Bills do give up some rushing yards (about
112 a game). Also, the Bills have a propensity to struggle in low
scoring games (they lost last week 10-6 to Dallas, & they lost
17-7 to Miami). If Houston can slow this game down and let Domanick
go to work, keeping the score low and eating time off the clock,
the Texans could make this game very interesting.
Buffalo is a team of intrigue for me. They are so inconsistent
on offense: some weeks they score (31 versus New England, 38 versus
Jacksonville, 24 versus Washington), some weeks they don't even
show (they currently rank as the 3rd worst scoring team in the
league, averaging only 17 points a game!). They have such great
talent in the passing game, but Bledsoe has struggled with interceptions,
Eric Moulds has struggled with injuries, and Josh Reed has just
struggled. Travis Henry is a good running back, but he's not unstoppable.
Even when Buffalo has faced a sub-par defense they have struggled
to win. One thing is for sure: this is a great week for Bledsoe
to get back on track. The Houston pass D is awful: currently ranked
as the 4th worst in the NFL, having allowed 16 passing TD's (second
most in the NFL), allowing about 240 yards passing a game, and
having earned only 8 SACKS (2nd worst total in the NFL). This
all speaks well for Buffalo's chances to win: the lack of QB pressure
should allow him to avoid the interception bug while allowing
Moulds and Reed time to get open downfield and take advantage
of the poor Houston secondary. The big player for Buffalo should
be Henry: not only does Houston struggle to stop the pass, they
are just as bad versus the run (allowing 137 rush yards a game).
Henry has been the big time player, not to mention the only point
of consistency, for this Bills team. He's running on pride, he's
running for his job (whether it will be in Buffalo or elsewhere),
and he's giving the Bills a win this week. The Bills hopes for
a postseason birth aren't entirely dead, but they are hurting.
This, and just about every other remaining game, is a must win
game. Look for a heavy dose of Henry, followed by a helping of
Moulds and Reed. The Bills should achieve a nice balance on offense,
their defense should take it to Houston's passing game, and they
should rediscover the taste of victory (which they haven't enjoyed
in 3 weeks).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Travis Henry, Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Domanick
Davis, Bills Defense
2nd String: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Josh Reed, Jabar Gaffney,
Billy Miller, Kris Brown
Prediction: Texans 13, Bills 24
St. Louis (6-3) at Chicago
(3-6) 1:00 PM
How about those Rams? What do you do with a team that gathers
only 121 total offensive yards in a game, yet scores 33 points?
The Rams are living a more charmed life than Justin Timberlake
(admit it fellas: he macks on Brittney Spears during her pure-as-the-driven-snow
years, gets dumped as she jumps on the slutty bandwagon, makes
millions off a hit song about how bad she screwed him over, and
falls into the arms of Cameron Diaz. THAT, my friends, is charmed.).
They get Marshall Faulk back, and after scoring his 2nd TD, he
had gathered a grand total of -1 yards. He ended up with only
48, but looked good in his first game back against a tough defense.
This week is looking pretty good for the Rams: they get to play
the Bears! The Bears are among the bottom feeders in the NFL,
but are at the high end of that group (does that make sense?).
On defense, they are solid against the pass, allowing only 188
pass yards a game. The good news for St. Louis: they are St. Louis.
Sometimes in football, the stats don't really mean as much as
they might, and this is a great example. Pittsburgh had a pretty
solid passing D in Week 8. Bulger lit them up for 375 yards. As
long as Torry Holt is on the field, this Bears' defense doesn't
stand much of a chance against the pass. Against the run, the
Bears aren't so good: they allow 122 rush yards a game and have
allowed 8 runs of 20 yards or greater. This looks like a nice
game for Marshall Faulk. When Bulger is on the field, he tends
to get more carries and with the Bears so vulnerable to big running
plays that should be a recipe for success.
The Bears: just when the world is jumping on board with the "this
team is improving" t-shirt for 'em, they go out and lay an
egg versus the Lions. This team was ready for a 3 game win streak,
was ready to let Anthony Thomas blow up and lead them to victory
#4, and was ready to convince us all they could at least compete
in this league on a weekly basis. So much for all of that. Their
reward: one of the most explosive offensive units in the land,
not to mention the Rams defense. The Rams are currently ranked
6th overall versus the pass (185 yards a game, 12 interceptions,
22 sacks) and are ranked 16th versus the rush (114 yards a game,
only 5 rushing TD's allowed). Many have pointed at Chris Chandler
as the point of stability for the recent offensive "surge"
of the Bears (compared to the beginning of the season, 10 to 17
points a game can be defined as a "surge" per NFL official
rules); however, Anthony Thomas has been the real rock of this
unit. It was evident last week as Detroit made him the focal point
for their defense, holding the A-Train to just 61 yards and, thus,
creating major problems for the Chicago scoring efforts. The Rams
should have no problem accomplishing the same (Jamal Lewis posted
nice numbers last week, but the A-Train isn't at that level).
Their defense is solid and seems to get better with each win.
Chicago is improving, but not in leaps and bounds. This is another
easy lesson for the Bears, that lesson being that losing sucks,
and it really sucks when it's served up St. Louis style. Faulk
should get some good fantasy points, Bulger and Holt should be
themselves, and the Rams should pick up their 7th win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Marshall Faulk, Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Jeff Wilkins,
Rams Defense, Anthony Thomas, Paul Edinger
2nd String: Marty Booker (Questionable), Isaac Bruce, Chris Chandler,
Dez White, Dane Looker, Desmond Clark
Prediction: Rams 28, Bears 16
Kansas City (9-0) at Cincinnati
(4-5) 1:00 PM
It seems like everyone was ready to crown Cincy as the underdog
favorite to possibly dethrone the best team in the NFL. Then Chad
Johnson loaded up the KC billboard with some nice quotes, something
about a guaranteed victory for his Bengals. I love Chad Johnson,
I think he's one of the best young talents in all of football.
But don't forget he's a receiver, and one thing 90% of the WR's
in the league like to do is to try and beat their own feet by
running their mouths. By the time his career is over, Johnson
will likely have predicted not just a win this weekend, but also
a playoff berth, a Super Bowl victory, a parting of the seas by
his own hands, a cure for cancer as discovered by himself, and
an end to world hunger as provided by none other than Chad Johnson
(he seems like he might start referring to himself in the third
person by that time). I really do love this kid, but this seems
like a far-fetched guarantee at best, and giving the Chiefs a
motivational tool wasn't a big help either. Here's all you need
to know: (a) Priest Holmes is 100% healthy and playing in this
game, (b) Cincy's rush D is one of the lower rated units in the
NFL, giving up 127 yards a game, (c) Cincy give up 22 points a
game while KC scores an average of 32 a game. It's really that
simple for KC: run Priest, run. Cincy normally hopes for a scoring
sprint, but they won't outscore this Chiefs team and they sure
as heck don't want to come from behind. The passing game for KC
is solid, the running game for KC is one of the best in the NFL,
and the Cincy D, though improving, isn't good enough to stop 'em.
We should mention more about the Cincy offense than Chad Johnson,
though he is the bulk of that offense. He's a great talent, and
if Cincy is going to keep up in this game they will need another
big game for Johnson. Not just Chad, but Rudi as well. Rudi was
awesome last week, running for 182 yards. He's not necessarily
the best RB in the NFL, but he's not too bad either. KC does have
a nice defensive unit: they give up both passing (209) and rushing
(123) yards in an average game, but they live off of turnovers
and can take advantage of mistakes (3 INT's returned for TD's
thus far). Jon Kitna will need a top-notch effort: he has 13 TD's
but has 9 INT's to show for it. Cincy cannot turn over the ball
in this game. Kitna has been solid, and CJ is a gamer, but they
will need a big effort from Rudi Johnson if they hope to contend
in this game. The Chiefs have proven they can win any type of
game: close games, blowouts, running games, passing games, defensive
battles, special team efforts, they win them all (thus far). I'm
wary of this team staying undefeated, but I'm going to the well
again this week. The Bengals are a nice team with a great coach
headed in the right direction. However, they don't have what it
takes to beat this Chiefs team. This may be closer than you might
expect, but take the Chiefs.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Priest Holmes, Trent Green, Chad Johnson, Tony Gonzalez,
Morten Andersen
2nd String: Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, Johnnie Morton (Questionable),
KC Defense, Eddie Kennison, Peter Warrick, Matt Schobel, Shayne
Graham
Prediction: Chiefs 32, Bengals 24
Arizona (3-6) at Cleveland
(3-6) 1:00 PM
This game is hard to get excited about, but there is some intrigue
here. Besides the Willie Green b.s., the Marcel Shipp vs. Emmitt
Smith debate (not really a debate in my mind, but they won't let
me run the Cardinals), and the QB controversy yo-yo in Cleveland
, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Let's take a look at
the Cardinals. Shipp gives this team a nice running game to go
with the air attack. You look at the yardage leaders from last
week and Arizona ruled the yardage stats despite the loss, with
Blake as the top passer, Shipp as the top rusher (no one ran the
ball well in that game), and Boldin in his normal spot as the
leading receiver. There is no doubt this team can move the chains,
it's a question of scoring. Despite all the yards, the Cards are
ranked last in scoring in the NFL, averaging only 14 points a
game. They don't get Shipp in position to score in the red zone.
They can pass for large chunks, but can't get it into the end
zone. They will have a tough time this weekend once again. The
Cleveland D isn't stellar, but they are tough. They are ranked
5th versus the pass (182 yards a game, only 7 passing TD's allowed)
and though they've given up 125 rushing yards a game, they have
allowed only 6 rushing TD's thus far (don't dismiss the competition:
they've faced Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis,
and Edge James - all top tier RB's). Shipp should get some respectable
yards, but don't expect too much scoring from him or his teammates.
Zona doesn't like to score too often, and Cleveland doesn't like
to allow too much.
This game should be a win for Cleveland, if they can score. Though
Zona is ranked dead last for scoring, the Browns barely beat them,
averaging only 15 points a game. The Browns might get Willie "Puff
Puff Give" Green back this week, and he should be pumped
to prove his worth. He was just starting to get his groove going
before the suspension. He could find those yards again this week,
but he'll need some help. For starters, the offensive line better
show up. That's a given. The big factor will be the passing game.
Arizona gives up less than 200 passing yards a game, but they
have allowed 15 passing TD's thus far. The Browns haven't been
too successful passing thus far, averaging only 166 yards a game
and only 10 TD's through the air thus far. However, they do have
some great young talent in the WR ranks: Quincy Carter (though
he matches better with Tim Couch) has great hands and Andre Davis
is a speedster. The Browns need to get the passing game on track:
it will keep the ball moving, it will open up holes for Green/Jackson,
and it's Cleveland's best shot at scoring (Zona allows only 105
yards rushing a game). This has the potential to be a much better
game than the records would indicate. These teams are evenly matched,
and it may be as simple as home field advantage. The Dawg Pound
will be out in force, and Arizona seems to be a completely different
team on the road. I'm going with better coach (I like Butch Davis,
and though this team won't bowl you over just yet, they are on
the right track), I'm going with the home team, and I'm taking
the Browns in a low-scoring, defensive win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Browns Defense, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin, Kelly
Holcomb
2nd String: James Jackson, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Freddie
Jones, Quincy Morgan, Andre Davis, Phil Dawson
Prediction: Cards 14, Browns 17
Jacksonville (2-7) at
Tennessee (7-2) 1:00 PM
The Jags are coming off a huge win over Indy, and never were the
talents & worth of Fred Taylor more evident. Taylor is a stud,
and if he would have avoided the injury bug in previous seasons,
he would have been a first round fantasy pick both this year and
last. Imagine how good his stats would be with a real offensive
line and a consistent passing game! All in good time, Fred. He
may find those yards harder to pick up this week. The Titan D
is tough and getting better every week. Tennessee sports the top
ranked rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 74 yards a game
and having allowed only 2 runs of 20 yards or more. That's one
tough nut to crack, and the way to crack it is a strong passing
performance. That's not likely either. The Titans give up 243
yards passing a game, but they have 25 sacks (3rd most in the
league) and 10 interceptions (also a nice number). Jevon Kearse
& Kevin Carter: these guys will strike fear in any QB, and
Leftwich is the pocket passing type they love to feed on. With
Leftwich on the run, and the rushing of Taylor under wraps, the
Titans have to be licking their chops. The Jags' offense is improving,
and they may find a few yards this week, but they aren't ready
for this kind of challenge just yet.
Some would argue the Titans are the best team in the NFL right
now, and you could make a compelling case. Steve McNair is the
favorite for MVP right now, and rightfully so. Derrick Mason is
a great WR, and with Drew Bennett (when healthy) and Justin McCareins
are great 2nd and 3rd options. The defense is looking pretty damn
good. The only soft spot is the rushing game: Eddie George is
not the runner he once was, and (as predicted and hoped for by
yours truly) rookie RB Chris Brown started to get some good playing
time last week (he was the top rusher for the win over Miami).
Together, Brown and George can provide an adequate rushing threat
to pick up some much needed ground yards, to punch in the TD runs
in the red zone, and to keep opposing defenses honest versus the
pass. The Jags' defense is going to encounter problems with this
offense. The D versus the rush is nice, currently ranked 4th in
the NFL giving up 88 yards a game. However, as we just discussed,
the rushing game for the Titans isn't the concern. Against the
pass, the Jag's rank 24th in the NFL, giving up 223 yards a game
and 15 passing TD's allowed, and don't forget the lack of QB pressure
to match (only 11 sacks thus far). No QB pressure versus the Titans
equals a loss. McNair can kill you even with the QB pressure,
and if you give him time he'll go long to Mason all day long.
Still not sure? These teams played two weeks ago: Titans 30, Jags
17, George ran for 88 (a big number for him, and he and Brown
should combine for similar numbers), and McNair picked up 187
yards through the air and did enough damage in those yards to
win. This time, the match is in Titan country. Expect another
Titan win, but this time it could be even more ugly for the Jags.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Steve McNair, Fred Taylor, Derrick Mason, Gary Anderson,
Titan Defense
2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Eddie George, Chris Brown,
Kyle Brady, Seth Marler, Justin McCareins, Erron Kinney
Prediction: Jags 14, Titans 32
Baltimore (5-4) at Miami
(5-4) 1:00 PM
The Ravens are in a pinch. They currently lead the tightest division
in football by one game over Cincy, and Cleveland and Pittsburgh
are still in the hunt as well (hey, Pitt may have 6 losses, but
a team that is 9-7 will get in the postseason dance). This was
not a good time to lose Kyle Boller for the year. Boller was steadily
improving and, though he wasn't tearing it up, he was getting
the hang of the NFL's speed. Now the Ravens turn to Anthony Wright
(what happened to their QB of the future from 2 years ago, Chris
Redmond?). Wright can be solid, but he's not a QB to wager on.
If the load on Jamal Lewis was heavy before, it will pale in comparison
to the pressure on him now. He's accounted for roughly 45% of
the Ravens' offensive yards already, and without a strong passing
game the scoring load will fall at his feet once again this week.
So what else is new? This guy has been getting it done all year
long, and though you can't expect one player to carry this kind
of load all year long, Jamal sure is trying. Think about this:
in 1984, when Eric Dickerson set the NFL rushing record for a
single season with 2,105 yards, he had about 120 yards less than
Lewis has right now. He's on pace to reach 2,000 yards, and if
he does it he'll be only the 5th rusher all time to reach the
elusive mark. It's not going to be an easy task, but Lewis has
impressed me already with his efforts and durability. He's going
to have his work cut out for him: Miami comes in with the 2nd
best rushing D ins the land. They allow opponents an average of
81 yards rushing yards a game, and have allowed only 5 rushing
TD's thus far. They've performed very well against some tough
RB's, and Jamal will surely test them. I can't see anyone stopping
this guy: they may "contain" him, say 90 yards. But
this is definitely going to be a defensive match up, and Lewis
is likely to be one of the only offensive performers of the game.
Miami has to be concerned in a major way: it would seem that
RB Ricky Williams, the heart and soul of this team, has taken
a turn for the worse. Ricky has now gone 6 GAMES without reaching
100 yards rushing. That is an eternity for a guy of Ricky's caliber.
This guy is the key for any and all Miami wins, and without him
the Fins will continue to struggle no matter whom is throwing
the ball. Seriously, I understand the Fins have picked up 3 wins
during that span, but do you really believe they would have lost
to Tennessee by 24 if Ricky had his game going at all? This is
another game were the running style of Williams could benefit
the cause of the Fins. The Ravens' D is solid, almost to the level
of the Super Bowl year. They come in ranked 4th versus the pass
(176 yards a game) and 8th versus the run (94 yards a game). They
are riding that cusp that separates winning and losing: they give
up 20 points a game but score 22 a game! The Fins have not been
as successful breaking the goal line. This game will be a grind
it out, defensive, you can score the least type of game. Ricky
versus Jamal should be the headline, but with Ricky struggling
of late it's tough to judge if the Fins can keep pace. Miami is
not a good passing team, and as much as I like Chris Chambers
it's up to the QB to get the ball to him. With Ray Lewis, Peter
Boulware, Anthony Weaver, and Terrell Suggs patrolling the field
and headhunting on WHOEVER is throwing for Miami, it's got to
be on Ricky Williams to step up and take this game over. I'm calling
the defensive comparison a draw, I'm calling the Redmond-Griese/Fiedler
comparison a draw, and I'm putting my money on the hot hand with
Jamal Lewis. I think Ricky is a great talent, but he's in a slump
and Lewis is on a role. Take Baltimore is a close one.
LATE NEWS: Brian Griese has been named the starter.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Baltimore Defense, Ricky Williams,
Chris Chambers, Miami Defense
2nd String: Brian Griese, Anthony Wright, Travis Taylor, James
McKnight, Olindo Mare, Matt Stover
Prediction: Ravens 17, Fins 13
Atlanta (2-7) at New Orleans
(4-5) 1:00 PM
Can any one explain to me how the Falcons beat the Giants last
week? How did that happen? I expected the Falcons to beat the
Giants by 20, and I also expected an engraved invitation to the
Salma Hayek, Katie Holmes, Beyonce Knowles threesome accompanied
by the winning Powerball ticket. How did that happen? The Falcons
are the worst team in the NFL, at least I think they are, and
they are one player away from exiting stage left from the ranks
of the abyss. Well, Mike Vick isn't coming back this week, so
they will remain at the bottom until further notice. Warrick Dunn
was awesome last week, ringing up the tough Giants' D for 178
yards. Dunn is a good player, but rarely does he put together
games like last week. Dunn rarely reaches 100 yards for that matter,
and even though the Saints' rush D is horrible it is hard to see
Dunn lighting it up 2 weeks in a row. The offensive line for the
Dirty Birds is not good at all (they've given up 23 sacks) and
it will take a scat-back like Dunn to get the rushing game working
for the Falcons. That said, Dunn is the best bet for offense against
this Saints D. The Saints give up an average of 130 yards a game.
However, they have allowed only 7 rushing TD's thus far. The passing
game will not be a factor for the Falcons this weekend: the Saints
come in with the 10th ranked passing D, allowing 189 yards a game
through the air and having collected a respectable 20 sacks to
date. With that, I would say if the Falcons have to rely on the
running game for a second week in a row for a win, the prospects
for that win aren't so bright.
The Saints are fighting to stay alive in the race to the playoffs.
With 5 losses, the battle could be described as "uphill."
It could be described as "unlikely." But this is the
NFL, and anything is possible. The Saints have the offensive weapons:
they average 118 rushing yards a game and 202 passing yards a
game, and they score an average of 21 points a game. If they can
keep team from scoring so much (about 23 points a game), they
can turn those games into wins. Deuce McAllister is the key to
this team - there's a revelation! He's a consistent, powerful
runner that can punish any team with a prolonged, abusive attack.
I really like Joe Horn. It seems like every week this guy is suppose
to miss the game with injury, yet he continues to not only play
but he catches everything airborne and makes key plays when his
team really needs him. Aaron Brooks may be enjoying his most productive
year: he's thrown only 6 interceptions thus far, and compared
to 13 TD's that looks pretty nice. Against Atlanta, they should
all have good games. The Falcons are ranked dead last in passing
defense (263 yards a game) and 3rd to last in rushing defense
(144 yards a game, 11 runs for more that 20 yards). Deuce could
use a nice game with some breakout runs. He's normally a guy that
lives between the tackles, and he'll continue to do so this week.
However, he could find some nice 30 yarders between those tackles.
Atlanta is still an awful, awful team. Don't let last week's win
fool you: they suck. They won't stop this New Orleans offense,
Deuce won't fumble the ball in the red zone like Tiki Barber,
and even with a not-so-good defense the Saints should role in
this one.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Deuce McAllister, Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn (Questionable),
Alge Crumpler, John Carney
2nd String: Doug Johnson, Warrick Dunn, Donte Stallworth, Ernie
Conwell, TJ Duckett, Peerless Price, Jay Feeley
Prediction: Dirty Birds 10, Saints 23
NY Giants (4-5) at Philadelphia
(6-3) 1:00 PM
OK, so did anyone come up with a real good reason to explain how
these Giants lost to Atlanta last week? OH, I did! Tiki Barber
dropped more balls than
.. I won't go there (come on, I may
work a little "blue" at times in the humor, but even
I won't go there). Go ahead and insert your own bad joke there.
It's amazing how this team, all this talent, can pull together
and turnover the ball so much as part of what appears to be a
team effort. "Hey Tiki, don't sweat that fumble on the goal
line, it's cool. Here, let me throw this ball here to the other
team, and then my interceptions will take some of the sting off
your mistakes." This team is so disappointing, and they come
into a game with division rival Philly, a team that has fought
through disappointment and strife to stay in a position to pounce.
Here's the numbers: the Giants have the 3rd best passing offense
in the game (257 yards a game, but have allowed 12 INT's), and
they run for 110 yards a game (but have laid down 10 fumbles combined,
having lost 8 of them). How is this team going to get better?
Are you going to sit Tiki Barber? Who do you turn to? The only
consistent performer on this team is Amani Toomer: he's a stud
and worthy of more touches, but he's reliant on Kerry Collins
to get him the ball. Toomer could light up the injured Philly
defensive backfield, but if you are looking at Kerry and saying,
"Gee, I'm going to put the mortgage on him," you need
to seek professional help (just like Kerry, that's an unnecessary
jab but if he continued to screw you over you'd be tempted to
dump on him too). Maybe you could count on Tiki: the Eagles do
allow about 113 rush yards a game, and have allowed a handful
of long runs. However, if you think betting on Tiki is a good
idea, go a couple of sentences back, read what I wrote about Collins,
and repeat by filling in "Collins" with "Barber."
I've come to a conclusion: Donovan McNabb is not likely to be
a passing QB (at least not this year). He's got an arm, but now
that I've looked back on his career thus far and have reminisced
on some of his past performances, I believe he won't ever be the
pass percentage, fantasy yard stud guy we would all like to see
him become. I saw, in the MNF win over Green Bay (a great game
to watch), McNabb finally set himself free to run the ball. Back
when McNabb killed the Bears and knocked them out of the playoffs
after a great season, I realized then that this kid was going
to make him mark running the ball, and the same holds true today.
He has hesitated to run the ball to often this year. When he runs,
good things happen. He did finally fire a throwing TD to Todd
Pinkston in that game, but his running set up the opportunity
to score. He needs to lead this team, and he's going to do it
more with his feet than with his arm. Granted, it would be nice
to see more of a passing game in Philly, but what works works,
and winning will always override the need to look good. Give McNabb
credit for that: he may not be pretty, he may not know how to
hit anyone with a strong zipper pass in the end zone, but he keeps
winning. The Giants D is tough: they give up 122 yards rushing
a game and give up only 197 yards passing a game. That said, they
have no problem giving up scores (just under 22 points a game).
This game has the Eagles written all over it: this game looks
to be low scoring, pretty tight, and very important in the race
for a division title. I'm taking Philly: they win ugly (but they
keep winning), they don't turn over the ball nearly as much, and
they are at home. Give the edge to McNabb's feet and Tiki's butter
fingers. Until I see differently, I will have a hard time believing
the Giants are a solid pick over any team. Take the Eagles.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Amani Toomer, Donovan McNabb, LJ Smith, David Akers
2nd String: Kerry Collins, Tiki Barber, Correll Buckhalter (Questionable),
Brian Westbrook, Deuce Staley, James Thrash, Jon Ritchie, Ike
Hilliard (Questionable), Jeff Feagles, Giants Defense,
Prediction: Giants 17, Eagles 20
Washington (4-5) at Carolina
(7-2) 1:00 PM
The Redskins reminded me of
. was that the Redskins
at the beginning of the season I was watching? Seattle had 0 sacks
against the QB with the most sacks in the NFL. The offensive line
finally regrouped and gave Ramsey some decent protection. Well,
this week they face the Panthers, and I'd warn you that maybe
this Skins' offensive line should be labeled like a condom: wearing
this device does not guarantee 100% protection. It's safe to say
Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker, and Kris Jenkins will be after Ramsey
like pit bulls. So how are the Redskins going to attack this Panther
defense? It is true the Panthers are vulnerable to the pass, giving
up 223 yards through the air a game. However, if you want to keep
the dogs off your QB you better have a respectable running game,
and the Skins do not. Trung Candidate is capable of some yards
and keeping the opposition guessing. However, he is far from a
game breaker and he won't put too much fear in the Panthers. Without
the running, there will be no gunning (cheesy, but catchy, like
the theme from Sanford & Son). Bottom line: Washington scores
19 on average, Carolina allows 18 on average. Something has to
give, and NFL tendencies rule in favor of the defense.
Carolina seems to have discovered their abilities on offense.
Say what you like about Jake Delhomme, but he's answered the call
several times now and can be directly accredited for 2 wins by
himself (including last week's win over Tampa Bay). The kid has
true talent and is learning fast. The biggest surprise of team
has been the emergence of Steve Smith. Smith has battled personal
demons in the past (or, more to the point, he's fought his own
teammates and had a few bouts with some anger issues, but hey
.
HE'S A FOOTBALL PLAYER, not a Blue Cross director). This year
he's tearing up the field and catching everything thrown his way.
He's developed a great chemistry with Delhomme and has become
a great offensive compliment to the Stephen Davis/DeShaun Foster
show. The Cats are throwing, the Cats are running, and they play
defense. All of these combine for a winner, and a team many are
labeling the best in the NFC. These Redskins, despite tons of
individual talent, do not have the ability to stop too many teams
this year. They rank 26th in scoring defense in the NFL, giving
up 24 points a game, they give up about 130 yards rushing a game,
and they allow 210 passing yards a game to opponents. None of
these numbers bodes well for this game with Carolina. Stephen
Davis may sit out one more week, as the Panthers are planning
on making a playoff run and would like to keep their best weapon
healthy and fresh. DeShaun Foster may be the best backup RB in
the NFL, so the Cats won't lose much running production. I don't
believe the Skins will do anything spectacular on defense, and
that's what it will take for the Panthers to lose. Take the hot
hand, take the home team, and take the better crew. Panthers should
win, and they should win easily.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Panther Defense, Jake Delhomme, Stephen Davis, DeShaun
Foster, Laveranues Coles, Steve Smith, John Hall, John Kasay
2nd String: Patrick Ramsey, Trung Candidate, Rod Gardner, Ricky
Proehl, Kris Mangum
Prediction: Skins 17, Panthers 27
NY Jets (3-6) at Indianapolis
(7-2) 4:05 PM
The Jets are exciting, just like when that awesome Victoria Secret
commercial comes on during sitcoms, or when the drive thru accidentally
gives you a Quarter Pounder instead of a Double Cheese, or when
you smell the pizza guy pull out in your driveway, or when
.
wait, I'm revealing WAY too much about my personal life (and how
boring it truly is). I love watching Chad Pennington. He's so
damn good, and he's made his team so much better. How many of
you watch way too much football coverage on ESPN? Here is a perfect
example of why they shouldn't hire some of the ex-players they
have: Brian Cox laid into Santana Moss early in the season, claiming
he would never be a true NFL WR and was not worthy of the position
at this level. Yep, he really nailed that one, if he was talking
about this dude I met the other day named Santana, but his last
name was Marcos and he was washing cars. Moss has been AWESOME
since Pennington's return, and I'm blaming both of them. The entire
team struggled mightily under Vinny Testaverde, and though Moss
showed glimpses of his potential they never really picked up chemistry
with each other. Penny and Moss had the mojo working in preseason,
and it's evident the effect Penny's return has had on the passing
game, not to mention the mood and attitude of the entire team.
Now, all this said, they are coming into the home of one of the
league's elite teams. The Colts have been great this season, and
the defense has showed signs of greatness. I've gone on rants
about Dwight Freeney: when you open your NFL catalog to look at
the in-stock jerseys, and you see a player on that list, he's
a stud. Right now, Freeney is available in home colors, sizes
M to XXXL. Total stud, and he'll give Pennington a hard time.
Right now, the Colts have the 8th best passing D in the league,
giving up only 185 yards a game. Pennington will go after anyone,
and with what I've seen I have no reason to believe he can't find
Moss open on the field. However, the Jets would be best served
with a solid running game (Indy gives up about 126 run yards a
game). Curtis Martin has been a soldier for a long time, and he's
had a couple of nice games in a row. He'll need to really step
up in this match: if he can find some good yards early, and make
the Indy defense play honest and guard against the run, then Penny
will have less pressure and more opportunities to make plays,
and that can only help the Jets.
And, we've come to the Indy section of the preview, another team
labeled by many as, possibly, the NFL's best. Then they go and
blow a close game to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, and, thus,
many have jumped off that bandwagon. The Colts have a fantastic
offense, no arguing that point. But to take a lose to a team struggling
as badly as Jacksonville had been, especially after the Jags tried
to hand them the win with late mistakes, speaks to the parity
of the NFL (one of the best aspects of this league), the vulnerability
of any and all teams to a loss at the hand of any other NFL team.
Any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday: the best
cliché in all of sports. The Colts had better bring their
Edge this weekend. The Jets are riding an emotion surge provided
by the return of their team leader (uh, that would be Pennington),
and the Jets' defense is not as soft as their record might indicate.
However, the Jets have proven to be vulnerable to the run. They've
struggled to stop opposing runners that are of the same caliber
of Edgerrin James. Manning likes to throw, Harrison likes to pass
(his health status is still uncertain at press time), but James
is the fulcrum of this offense. Lesser teams have let Manning
and company win with little to no run support, but the Jets are
not such a team. The Jets' D currently ranks 3rd against the pass,
and if Indy doesn't have Harrison at 100% the struggle to attack
by air could prove to be difficult. James has been solid since
returning from injury, but he's due for a dominant performance.
He'd love nothing more than to lead his team to a statement win.
The Jets are one of the NFL's worst defenses against the run,
allowing 155 rush yards a game (ranked last in the NFL). Edge
needs to take advantage, his team needs him to take advantage,
and they need a win over a competitive team for a confidence boost
and to place the Colts back in the upper echelon of the NFL. I'm
not in the mood to predict a blowout, and I won't be as long as
Pennington is on the field. The Jets should make this a fun game
to watch, but give the edge to Edge, and take the Colts.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Edge James, Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Peyton
Manning, Marvin Harrison (Doubtful), Mike Vanderjagt
2nd String: Curtis Martin, LaMont Jordan, Reggie Wayne, Anthony
Becht, Marcus Pollard, Curtis Conway, Doug Brien, Jets Defense,
Indy Defense
Prediction: Jets 21, Colts 27
San
Diego (2-7) at Denver (5-4) 4:05 PM
How about them Chargers? It figures: I took Tomlinson off the
1st String for the first time ever, figuring the Vikings would
jump to a quick lead and, once again, LT would be the forgotten
man. That worked out about as well an anal cavity search. Will
he show up big again this week versus Denver? I would bet the
dog on it (but, of course, I don't really like my dog, so take
that for what it's worth). He has a great history of nice games
versus Denver, and one could only hope that Coach Schottenheimer
will FINALLY get a clue and let this guy do his thing. Let me
also take a bite of crow for Doug Flutie: I believe I stated,
"The Chargers are the worst team in football and turning
to a 41 year old QB isn't the answer." Here's the thing:
Flutie has been a nice player in his time, but I don't buy the
argument he'd be a potential Hall of Famer if other teams had
seen his potential and given him a shot. He's had his shots, he's
done well and he's struggled, and give him his due but keep it
realistic. Flutie may have a tougher go this week as Denver's
pass D currently ranks 11th in the league, giving up only 192
yards a game. Their rush D isn't too bad either, allowing less
than 100 yards on the ground a game. Key stat for LT fans: the
Broncos have given up 7 runs of 20 yards or more. Tomlinson loves
to break it out for a sprint, and he'll get his shots. The Broncos
are missing two of their starting LB's (John Mobley, one of the
most underrated players in the game, and Ian Gold), and if LT
can take advantage of the missing run stuffers he could put up
big numbers once again (by the way, he's quietly become the league's
#4 rusher, despite the struggles of his team and his lack of opportunities).
Denver is coming off their much needed bye week. This team is
suffered through some tough injuries, including Jake Plummer's
foot, the previously mentioned LB's, Jason Elam's knee, and now
Mike Anderson's lung condition. Elam is still a question mark,
but it looks like Jake is ready to return, and his timing couldn't
be better. They've lost 4 of their last 5 games, and when you
are in a division with KC you can't afford to lose too many. I
remember, in the preseason, when the Denver fans were BOOING Plummer
for struggling a bit and throwing some questionable passes. Now
all those fans are wearing #16 jerseys and are yelling for his
return! One guy you can guarantee will be happy to see Jake back
on the field is Ashley Lelie. Lelie was on his way to a big season
with Jake, and since Plummer's injury Lelie has struggled to do
much of anything. It's just obvious that these two guys have chemistry
and are a great match on the field. Clinton Portis will be happy
to see Jake back as well. Portis' style of running is normally
dependant on a respectable passing threat to open up holes in
the offensive line and to keep would be tacklers in the backfield.
Don't get me wrong: Portis is a great RB thus far. But it is undeniable:
he's a much better performer when Jake is on the field. Despite
the win last week, the San Diego defense is still horrible (young,
and learning, but currently horrible). They rank 26th versus the
pass and 24th versus the run. Minnesota had a rough time stopping
San Diego last week, but they did move the ball and they did score
21 points. This is a great game for Plummer to get his legs and
arm back. He does have a propensity for interceptions, and he
might throw a couple this week as he gets reacclimated. However,
his chances of finding yards and finding open receivers downfield
should override these potential problems. Portis is going to have
a field day on this defense. It should be a good day for Denver
offensively, and as long as they can keep LT some restrained then
they should pull out of the funk with a win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Jake Plummer,
Shannon Sharpe
2nd String: Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, David Boston, Doug Flutie,
Jason Elam, Antonio Gates, Steve Christie, Denver Defense
Prediction: Bolts 14, Broncos 23
Minnesota (6-3) at Oakland
(2-7) 4:15 PM
What has happened in Minnesota? They've hit a major skid, having
lost 3 in a row including a tough loss to division rival Green
Bay, an unimaginable loss to the lowly Giants, and an even worse
loss to the Chargers. They need to find a win, and they have yet
ANOTHER chance this weekend in Oakland. The offense of the Vikes
is no mystery: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams. They've
been a strong trio this year. The wild card is Michael Bennett.
Many (including myself) thought Bennett would get good reps last
week, as many were predicting (including myself once again) that
the Vikes would role over the Bolts and this would give them a
good chance to give Michael Bennett some good snaps. It didn't
happen that way. It could this week, as the Oakland defense is
not so good. The Raiders give up about 200 yards passing a game,
so Daunte to Randy could be as effective as ever. They also give
up 153 yards rushing a game (2nd worst in the NFL), and this should
be the point of attack for the Vikings. Oakland has not been able
to stop anyone from running the ball, and a weak defense like
this could provide a great opportunity for Bennett to break back
into the NFL with a bang. One thing is for sure: the Vikings need
to win. They will be pumped and looking for blood. I'd expect
a strong performance from all the major players for the Vikings,
and I think Bennett could have a great chance to join that list
again.
Oakland is hurting. Wait, they aren't hurting, they are officially
at count 7 of the standing 8 (little boxing reference for ya').
With both their 1st and 2nd string QB's on the bench for a while,
they have turned to Rick Mirer to lead the offensive charge. Mirer
did better than expected last week, and kept his Raiders in it
till the end against the Jets. A nice performance for the journeyman
QB, but don't expect it every week. The biggest surprise last
week for Oakland was the reemergence of RB Tyrone Wheatley, who
was the leading rusher in the game with 75 yards (he was part
of a group of RB's that combined for a total of 169 rushing yards
last). Wheatley is a powerful guy, and he could be a factor this
week once again. "How's that Bryan?" If Oakland hopes
to win this one, they need to slow this game down, keeping the
Vikes' offense off the field by utilizing the weak Viking rush
D (currently ranked 27th in the NFL, giving up 129 yards a game
on the ground). Wheatley is a great match for this defense: his
hard nosed style of running will punish the Vikings' defensive
line into submission, allowing bigger rush plays and keeping pressure
off of Rick Mirer. It looks, to me, like Oakland's only hope.
The Vikes do have a horrible defense, and their pass ranking is
even worse than their rush defense (against the pass, they rank
30th and give up 238 yards a game). The problem is Rick Mirer:
he's capable of playing QB for this team, but he's not Rich Gannon,
he can't throw for huge yards, and he won't get the bulk of the
offensive scoring. That said, this is a great game for Minnesota:
they should be able to take full advantage of a weak Oakland defense,
jump out to a quick and big lead, and rest on the legs of Michael
Bennett and Moe Williams as they ride to victory.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams, Sebastian
Janikowski
2nd String: Michael Bennett, Charlie Garner (Questionable), Jerry
Porter, Nate Burleson, Aaron Elling, Tim Brown, Rick Mirer, Tyrone
Wheatley, Teyo Johnson
Prediction: Vikes 28, Raiders 16
Detroit (3-6) at Seattle
(6-3) 4:15 PM
Watching Detroit is very similar to the family holidays, when
you have to see your aunt that just "rediscovered religion."
You show up, and though it's painfully nauseating and brings on
thoughts of suicide, you continue to tolerate it just to get to
the meal (or in this case, just so you can see the two or three
decent plays of NFL football). In this case, Joey Harrington is
the meal. He's struggling without a supportive cast, but he's
still capable of amazing you with his abilities and talents. This
kid is the real deal, and thought the Lions won last week with
4 FG's, it was Harrington that set up those field goals. Face
it: if Charles Rogers was healthy, this team would surprise many.
However, as it stands, this team is void of such threats right
now. There is no real running threat (I'd still like to see rookie
Artose Pinner as a starter, but it sounds like his health is still
an issue); there is no go-to receiver (remember with Az-Zir Hakim
was in St. Louis, tearing up the box scores? It's not nearly as
easy when you don't line up across from Isaac Bruce and Torry
Holt.), and without some sort of consistent support for Harrington
this team will struggle to win against anyone. This week they
face a tough Seattle defense: they give up 200 yards passing a
game and 118 yards rushing a game, but have kept opponents to
an average score under 20 points. Detroit has struggled just to
get 14 points a game (they average about 16 a game), and they
will struggle again in Seattle this week. Ray Rhodes, defensive
coordinator for Seattle, will have his team ready. Chad Brown
will be patrolling the line, and he'll give Harrington all he
can handle and more.
Seattle is a tough team to figure out. You look at the record
and it's obvious they are a good team. However, take a look at
those losses: they lost by 7 last week to the struggling Redskins
(they didn't get a single sack against the QB with the most sacks
thus far), they've lost by 22 to Green Bay (I can see and forgive
losing to the Pack, but by 22 points?), and they've lost by 3
to Cincinnati (Cincy is improving, but they are definitely not
as talented as Seattle). Also, look at some of those wins. They
beat the Rams by 1 (good win, but close), they beat the 49ers
by 1, they beat Chicago by 7, and they beat Pittsburgh by 7 (they
blew out their first two opponents, fyi). They tend to keep it
nice and cozy, but they win more than not. It is hard to see how
this team doesn't score more often: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback,
Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson. Those are some nice offensive
weapons. It seems they often play down to their opponents, and
they also battle the turnover bug (interceptions can ruin the
West Coast Offense in a heartbeat. I have enjoyed seeing young
RB Maurice Morris getting some carries. I feel this team doesn't
run the ball enough, and the Alexander-Morris tandem gives the
team a nice mix of speed and power. Let's just say it: I hate
the West Coast offense, and if this encourages more running then
I'm all for it. That said, the passing game is the best approach
for Seattle this week. The Detroit D is pretty good against the
run (giving up 111 yards a game), but they are not so good versus
the pass (giving up 210 yards a game and having allowed over twice
as many passing TD's as rushing). By the way, I'd be neglectful
if I didn't mention rookie LB Boss Bailey: this kid has major
skills (2nd for team tackles with 50, 2 sacks thus far, and has
given the Lions at least one good pass defender; keep tabs on
him, he's going to be a stud for years to come). I get emails
every week from those of you with Koren Robinson on your fantasy
teams (as I have him on most of mine): he's struggled and has
not had a real dominant game yet. This is a good chance for K-Rob
to shine. Darrell Jackson is a great talent, and if he can hold
on to the ball you know he'll get his catches. K-Rob did pick
up some nice yards last week, so let's give him this game to improve
our outlook. The Seahawks have great receiving weapons, and they
should take advantage of the weak Detroit defense on their way
to win #7, and I expect this win to be more convincing than most
Seattle wins.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback, Darrell Jackson,
Koren Robinson, Joey Harrington, Jason Hanson, Itula Mili, Josh
Brown, Seattle Defense
2nd String: Shawn Bryson, Az Hakim, Maurice Morris, Bill Schroder,
Itula Mili, Mikhael Ricks
Prediction: Lions 13, Seahawks 30
Green Bay (4-5) at Tampa
Bay (4-5) 4:15 PM
This is going to be a great game. Never mind the stupid records,
never mind the recent struggles, never mind all the crap you might
be over thinking, and never freakin' mind your fantasy teams (ok,
maybe that's asking a little too much, but my point stands: you
don't have to be a fantasy head to enjoy this game). The Packers
and Bucs are two teams with so much in common, yet with so little
in common. The Packers: great offense, horrid defense. The Bucs:
great defense (usually, not always but usually), struggling offense.
Both teams are capable of big wins and utterly heartbreaking losses
(i.e. last week's games for both squads). Let's start with the
Cheese. I got one thing right about last week's MNF game: Ahman
Green blew up that Philly defense. Too bad it wasn't enough to
win. Anyone that knows this team at all can tell you this team
relies so heavily on Ahman Green that you might still call them
Brett Favre's Packers, but Brett Favre calls them Ahman Green's
Packers. He is capable of so much, but much like his team, he
can break your heart with one fumble. He's still battling the
fumble bug, but he more than makes up for it in yards and TD's.
He'll take a crack at a Tampa defense that has struggled this
year to stop the run. They give up just a touch over 100 yards
a game (104 to be exact), and have allowed only 5 rushing TD's,
but they have given up some big yards to RB's just like Green:
Stephen Davis for 142 in Week 2, Garrison Hearst for 117 in Week
7, and Deuce McAllister for 110 in Week 9. Green will show up
and he'll run the ball. However, as the Pack showed last week,
they can't rely on Green's rushing alone. Brett has got to throw,
and Donald Driver has got to get off a game worthy of his talent.
The guy has the heart of a lion, but he has only 1 TD thus far.
Now you know the Tampa D-line will be up and gunning for Favre.
Warren Sapp and Favre have this lovely relationship, and I'm sure
they'll meet up again in this one. Favre has to get the ball downfield,
and he's got a shot for success. Tampa holds down the passing
yards (185 a game), but they have struggled at times (see Jake
Delhomme for instance). If Green Bay hopes to win, they'll need
a big time game from their veteran leader.
The Tampa offense started off like gangbusters. They looked to
be a whole new team, led by Coach Jon Gruden who turned journeyman
Rich Gannon into an MVP, and it looked like Brad Johnson had started
off down a similar road earlier in the season. However, it has
been hard for Johnson to do this consistently as the season has
worn on. He has good games (threw for 323 two weeks ago versus
New Orleans), but he's laid a couple of eggs along the way. One
player that has emerged in the last few weeks is none other than
Keyshawn "Give me the Damn Bench" Johnson. He had all
but removed himself from consideration in fantasy world, but lately
he's been on a tear. Along with Keenan McCardell (who has made
himself a weekly starter amongst fantasy buffs), they make a great
duo on the field for Johnson to employ. They'll have some great
opportunities against this porous Green Bay defense. This Packer
D has blown more than its share of games this season already,
including last week's loss to Philly. They do ok versus the run,
allowing 114 yards a game on average. However, against the pass
is a totally different story: they are currently ranked 28th in
the NFL, giving up 235 yards a game to opponents and 13 passing
TD's thus far. This is great news for a Bucs team that is ripe
for a win and is heavily rooted in the Jon Gruden passing game.
Their rushing is respectable. Michael Pittman is having what may
be his best year to date with 563 yards (I should mention he has
0 rushing TD's, and though he has 4 fumbles he's lost only 1,
but some scoring would be nice). He helps move the ball, but make
no mistake about it, Tampa scores with the arm of Brad Johnson.
The man has 18 TD's (tied for #1 with Peyton Manning in the NFL),
and the Bucs are the exception to the rule in the red zone. They
like to pass, and he spreads the wealth (8 different receivers
with TD's for Tampa). There is no way the Pack can stop this.
They don't cover well, they don't get very consistent QB pressure,
and if you can't do either of those versus this Bucs offense you
won't keep them out of the end zone. Look for Tampa to stay alive
in the playoff race: 6 losses is a tough number, especially in
the NFC when hunting for a Wild Card (Carolina is going to win
the division by the way). Their defense will be pumped, and though
Ahman Green may do some damage, look for the Pack passing game
to struggle. Combined with a bad defense, it's too much for the
Pack to overcome.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Ahman Green, Brad Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Brett
Favre, Ryan Longwell, Martin Gramatica, Buc Defense
2nd String: Michael Pittman, Donald Driver, Javon Walker, Keyshawn
Johnson, Todd Yoder, Bubba Franks
Prediction: Pack 17, Bucs 23
Dallas (7-2) at New England
(7-2) 8:30 PM
How can you not like Bill Parcells? Seriously. I don't care if
you are an Eagles fan, I don't care if you are a Giants fan, I
don't care if you hate the white man, I don't care. The guy is
amazing! 7 freakin' wins for this Dallas team is just flat out
amazing! They win low scoring games, they win high scoring games,
they win defensively, they win offensively, and best of all, Parcells
is never happy. I'm sorry: he was happy last week during his walk
to his car. Then he got pissed again. You've got to love this
guy. How many coaches, in all of sports, can get away with his
hard-nosed attitude, his over-the-top motivational tactics, and
make it all work so damn well? He's got a true test this week,
and you better believe, though every game is a test for Dallas,
that this game right here will truly show us just how good and
how real this Cowboy team is right now. New England is one tough
defense. The good thing for Dallas is they are a bit vulnerable
against the pass, but calling it "vulnerable" may be
an overstatement. Against the rush, the Pats are ranked 7th overall,
allowing only 92 yards a game and have allowed only 1 rush over
20 yards thus far. The Dallas RB's are not up to this challenge
at all. However, the Pats give up 215 yards worth of airtime on
average, and this plays well to the Dallas offense. I rank Quincy
Carter as my biggest surprise of the NFL this year: he's thrown
some picks (9) and his rating isn't too impressive, but he's getting
it done and he's spreading the field and hitting all his targets
with great success. He'll need his A game and his offensive line
will need to be strong this week: although the Pats give up some
yards, they've gathered 21 sacks thus far (and without their best
LB Rosevelt Colvin for most of it). They will get in Carter's
grill, but the kid's got great feet and has shown he can pass
with strength and accuracy on the run. Dallas won't run, but they
will pass, and if they can get the ball downfield and avoid Ty
Law, Eugene Wilson, and Rodney Harrison they could put up some
points.
Tom Brady has gotten himself back on the fantasy radar this year.
He's been money for the Pats, throwing at 60% and just over 7
yards a catch, he's kept his team in points and in games. Make
no mistake: this is a defensive New England team, but Brady is
the leader and if he can't get it going they don't win. The running
game is ok, but nothing too scary. Deion Branch has quietly put
together a nice season and overtaken Troy Brown as the leading
receiver, though both guys have only 2 TD's thus far. Despite
the lack of a true scoring talent, this team puts up some points
(averaging an average of 20 a game, but they have scored big against
some tough teams including 38 on Tennessee and 30 on Denver).
They are not likely to find the same kind of numbers against this
tough Dallas defense. Dallas ranks numero uno (that's #1 for those
of you that don't watch Dora the Explorer, or Telemundo for the
babes) in scoring defense, allowing only 15 points on average
a game. Impressive is the word that pops into mind. Unfortunately
for the Pats, their strength is against the pass: they again rank
#1, giving up only 149 passing yards a game. This is the key stat
in my mind. I've spoken ad nauseam about Roy Williams: he's a
stud. No one talks enough about Derek Ross or Terence Newman (personally,
I'd mention Dat Nguyen, La'Roi Glover, and Greg Ellis as well,
as they are responsible for the much of the QB pressure for this
team). These guys can cover so well they are sure to give the
Patriots fits. Oh, I should mention the Boys also rank #3 against
the run, allowing only 85 yards a game. New England's running
game doesn't pose a big threat anyway, so Dallas is looking pretty
good. This is my game of the week, I'll Tivo it, probably watch
it at least twice. This has the makings of a great defensive battle,
and I'm giving the edge to the visiting Dallas Cowboys. It's hard
for me to wrap my head around this, but I'm going to pick the
Boys to go 8 & 2. They are rolling, and I'm more than happy
to jump on the bandwagon for the sake of my mindset and, most
importantly, or the sake of this preview and my picks!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Dallas Defense, Pats Defense, Quincy Carter, Tom Brady,
Terry Glenn, Billy Cundiff
2nd String: Joey Galloway, Troy Hambrick, Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch,
Troy Brown (Questionable), Antonio Bryant, Daniel Graham, Jason
Witten
Prediction: Cowboys 20, Pats 13
Pittsburgh (3-6) at San
Francisco (4-5) Mon 9:00 PM
Now if the Dallas Cowboys are the big surprise of the year, you'd
have to rank the Steelers as the biggest disappointment of they
year. They are loaded with talent, yet they are all but dead for
the postseason and have already started to look to next year (benching
Dewayne Washington for Deshea Townsend was a big sign, as Washington
is going to be a salary cap casualty at year's end). That doesn't
mean they won't be gunning for a big win on Monday Night. They
have the weapons to beat any team if they can avoid the turnover
bug and get the job done. Tommy Maddox has suffered the brunt
of the blame from the public thus far: 11 interceptions will do
that to a QB. However, Maddox is still a capable QB and with the
targets he has on the field it's hard to imagine he'll continue
to struggle forever. He has topped 2000 yards already, and last
week's trouncing of Arizona was a step in the right direction.
Like many fantasy players, I wonder what is going on with Plaxico
Burress. The answer is easy: Hines Ward. Hines has 60 receptions
thus far to Plaxico's 35, and that is the big difference. These
two normally share the field well, and it used to be Plaxico was
the big yardage guy while Ward picked up the bulk of the scoring.
This year Ward is doing it all: 8 TD's with 717 yards thus far
is very impressive, and why would Maddox turn away from the hot
hand. Just so you know, I'll probably continue to list Burress
as a 1st Stringer: he's too good to leave off the list and he
could blow up for 200 and 2 TD's at any time (and I don't want
your emails when he does!). They come into this week looking to
hit all the receivers as the Niner's passing D isn't so good:
they give up 200 yards a game and have allowed 13 passing TD's
thus far. However, Maddox will have some trouble as the Niners
do get to the QB a good amount of the time (27 sacks thus far,
#2 in the NFL, lead by Julian Peterson and Andre Carter, great
talents and you should remember the names). It's hard to count
on the running of Bettis or Zereoue: neither has been horrible
but both have yet to put up a big game). Besides, the Niners currently
rank 5th in rushing D, so look for Pitt to pass early and often
in this one, and they should find success.
At print time, ESPN is reporting though Jeff Garcia is listed
as healthy, he's still a bit hampered by the high ankle sprain,
thus Tim Rattay is likely to start. What does this mean? Rattay
looked pretty good in his last start, gathering 236 yards and
3 TD's versus the Rams. He'll have a tough day at work on Monday
as he's facing one of the best defenses in football. Pitt currently
ranks 12th versus the pass (194 yards a game with 23 sacks). However,
the Steelers have allowed 14 air TD's so far, so bump Terrell
Owens into your starting rotation this week fantasy geeks. Rattay
and Owens are like the Beav and Eddie Haskell: they are best friends
and love to give the mom a hard time (making Jeff Garcia the mom,
take that how you may). I do believe Owens when he says Rattay
has a longer arm, and it showed in the win over the Rams two weeks
ago. The only concern, and it is a big concern, is the rushing.
Pitt ranks 6th versus the run, giving opposing RB's only 92 yards
a game on average. Garrison Hearst is a great RB, and he's been
doing it for years, but he'll have a tough go this week. If you
look at the wins for San Fran, you'll notice a glaring similarity:
they've all been big rushing games for the Niners (162 versus
Chicago, 142 versus Detroit, 212 versus Tampa, 165 versus the
Rams). In the bulk of their losses, they've not gathered this
type of rushing yards. If the Niners can't run with any success
against Pittsburgh, they won't have such an easy time passing.
Owens will keep them in the game, but I'm not on the Rattay bandwagon
just yet, and I fear the Pitt D will be too much Hearst and Barlow
to get those important running yards. Hines Ward will be the difference.
The Steelers will run, but not for anything more than to keep
the defense honest. I believe the Steelers are looking to go on
a roll, and this is Monday Night. I haven't done so well with
Monday Night games. I think this one will be close, and I'm giving
the edge to the Steelers. Maddox will have a big game, Hines Ward
will be himself, and Plaxico will turn it on in this one. Along
with Randle El, there is just too much for this sub par Niner's
D to cover. I'm taking the Steel Curtain, and I'm keeping my fingers
crossed.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Hines Ward, Pitt Defense, Terrell Owens, Tommy Maddox,
Plaxico Burress, Jeff Reed
2nd String: Garrison Hearst, Tim Rattay, Kevan Barlow, Jerome
Bettis (Questionable), Amos Zereoue, Antwaan Randle El, Tai Streets,
Jay Riemersma
Prediction: Steelers 20, Niners
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