Last Week's Projections: (13-3)
81.2%
Season's Projections: (143-80)
64.1%
Atlanta (3-11) at Tampa Bay
(7-7) Sat 1:30 PM
Let me start off by wishing all of you good luck in the playoffs,
and if you are in the consolation bracket, then feel free to pull
a Dan Reeves and quit. Just go out, pick up a bunch of hunyucks
from the third string of the worst teams, and throw it in. I wish
Reeves would have quit, and he did quit, before my column last week
so I could have ripped him then. Get this straight: if you, the
average joe, go to your boss and ask if you are in a bad place at
work, and then you say you want to be let go, you will not be classified
as "fired." You have just quit. So when you, the average
joe, has your nationally covered press conference, don't stand in
front of the world and start by saying, "Well, I didn't quit."
Dan Reeves quit: he had a choice, and he decided to take his check
and go home for the holidays. I'm not saying I blame him, but let's
call it what it is: quitting. Now, that said, the questions lingered
until game time: how will this team respond? Did Dan Reeves deserve
this, as his team may have been better with a healthy Mike Vick?
I'll field both of these. First, when a coach quits before the season
is over, it is hard to expect too much from the team, and it is
even harder to put any faith in those fantasy players. Two, Reeves
had it coming. The truth is this: the Falcons are giving up an AVERAGE
of 27 points a game! You won't win a lot of games when your defense
is that horrid. This week they may have a tough go once again. Tampa
was labeled as the defense that knew how to contain Mike Vick last
year, and it's hard to believe this year will be much different.
The Falcons could find some production: Vick is a stud regardless
of the opponent and is capable of amazing things at any given moment.
Also, TJ Duckett has started to flourish a bit as the feature RB:
in his last 3 games he's combined for 164 yards and 3 TD's. He's
not getting a ton of yards, but he's finding the end zone (that
makes for 7 straight weeks with at least one TD). He's the power
in the red zone and Vick is the speed and arm to get them there.
Tampa's D seems to have solved their problems with the run: after
allowing Ahman Green rush for 109 and Fred Taylor run for 118, they
bounced back to hold Deuce McAllister under 100 yards and they all
but shut down Domanick Davis, holding him to just 56 yards. If Atlanta
is going to have any shot at a win, they will need Vick to do some
major damage with his arm and his legs. Based on history, Vick hasn't
faired too well versus the Bucs. Last year he faced this team twice:
he threw for 37 yds and rushed for 72 in the first, and threw for
125 yds and rushed for only 15 in the second. Not impressive at
all, and those numbers, along with the recent resurgence of the
Tampa D, does not lend for a good argument for an Atlanta win.
It's not a big secret that the Tampa offense has struggled in
recent weeks. In their last 6 games, this team has averaged only
16 points a game. After averaging about 26 in their first 5 games,
it seems this team may have been living an offensive dream to
start the season. I know Brad Johnson is not a QB that sends fear
into the hearts of many opponents, and I know Michael Pittman
and Thomas Jones don't really bring thoughts of excellence to
mind, and I know the receiving corps is respectable but you don't
usually mention Keenan McCardell and Charles Lee when you are
talking about the big wideout tandems in the NFL. However, this
team won a Super Bowl without a dominant offense. This team is
made to win tight games. The reason they haven't won games this
season is simple: they haven't been able to score enough points
to win the close games. Look at that schedule: with 7 losses on
the board, 6 of those losses have been by 7 points or less (4
of them by 3 points!). In other words, the teams they were winning
close games against last year are turning into losses this year.
The only loss you can look at and say, "that team should
not have beaten this Tampa team," is Jacksonville (and the
Jags were just starting to play much better, especially on defense).
This Atlanta team is not good. It would stand to reason that even
if Vick is able to keep this game close, Johnson and company should
be able to do enough to win. Tampa is not taking this season as
one to throw away: the defensive unit is still loaded with talent
and they take great pride and satisfaction in bringing the pain
to opponents. They know how to keep Vick under wraps, and the
Falcons don't know how to win without a superior effort from their
superstar. Take the Bucs (by the way, they are the biggest long
shot in the NFL, but I wouldn't say the Bucs are entirely dead;
they may be crippled and rotting in the sun, but not completely
dead).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Buc Defense, Keenan McCardell, Jay Feeley, Martin
Gramatica
2nd String: Mike Vick, Peerless Price, Brad Johnson, Thomas Jones,
Alge Crumpler, Charles Lee, Michael Pittman, Todd Yoder
Prediction: Falcons 10, Bucs 23
Kansas City (12-2) at
Minnesota (8-6) Sat 5:00 PM
So, do you Viking fans sit on the ledge, wondering what is happening,
trying to find a reason not to jump? I sincerely doubt it. For
starters, this is football, and as much as we love it and live
by the events of every Sunday (or, in the case of this week, Saturday),
it is not life or death. Second, it's the holidays, and nothing
says "Merry Christmas" like some good, old-fashioned
vulgarity and anger at the TV, especially in front of the in-laws,
so you don't want to miss the opportunity. Third, you are Viking
fans, and you are accustomed to heartbreak and frustration. You
realize no matter how hot your team may be during the first weeks
of the season, no matter how dominant your Vikings may appear
to be when they sit at 6 & 0, the disappointment is just around
the corner. From 6 & 0, you've watched your team follow the
historical footprints left by the previous regimes in Minnesota,
having lost 6 or their last 8 games (including the troubling loss
to Chicago, led by a rookie QB that had never seen a single snap
in the NFL) and put their playoff hopes in extreme jeopardy. I'm
positive most of you sat on your Laz-y-Boy this last Sunday, holding
down the vomit and disgust, as the Packers battled to a win and,
thus, a tie for the division led with your team. I feel your pain,
and the schedule seems to hold a world of disappointment ahead
as you look and see the Chiefs coming to town this weekend! Be
worried, be very worried, for the Chiefs have had no problems
with your fellow Black and Blue division mates: they racked up
40 versus Green Bay for a win and they are coming fresh from the
destruction of the Detroit Lions, having beaten them mercilessly
by a score of 45-17. There is plenty to worry about: the Vikings'
defense is extremely inconsistent and vulnerable, and the running
threat of Michael Bennett is in question due to injury (he vows
to play, but his injury status is still uncertain). Bennett's
big play potential could give the Vikings a huge boost this week,
as well as some much needed ground support to relieve some of
the pressure on Daunte Culpepper. To make things even better,
recent memory cannot offer a recollection of worse effort as that
put forth by your best player last week. Randy Moss was the picture
of indifference last week, having dropped some easy passes (including
a TD pass) and making little to no effort for several others.
Moss is the key to winning: he gets the Vikes on the scoreboard
from anywhere on the field. The KC defense isn't too stellar,
and they should have plenty of problems covering Moss and Culpepper.
These two guys had better step up their production if they hope
to win. KC has proven one thing this year: they may not be the
NFL's best team, but you better come strong on offense and put
up plenty of points if you want to keep up.
We could break down some numbers in this one if it mattered,
and maybe it does, but here is what you need to know: both of
these teams score a ton of points when they win. In the 12 wins
the Chiefs have put up this year, the offense is averaging 32
points a game. In Minnesota's 8 wins, they have averaged 30 points
a game. Here's another stat to note: both teams give up plenty
of points as well. For Minnesota, they have given up an average
of about 23 points a game overall, and have allowed an average
of 32 points a game in their losses. You can't really compare
the numbers for the Chiefs as they have only two losses, but they
are allowing an average of about 21 points a game overall. Therefore,
if you are hoping for a defensive battle, you might be better
served to watch the new hit show "Cheaters" on UPN,
or perhaps you could walk into the room and ask your father-in-law
(in front of the rest of the family of course) "hey pops,
when are we going back to that strip club again?". This is
not going to be a seminar on defensive football, and you can bet
the scores will be helped by the dome and the turf. Priest Holmes
is back on track to chase the single season TD record, so he'll
have plenty of incentive to put up a handful of scores on the
woeful Minnesota defense (allowing 122 yards rushing a game).
Trent Green has a hot hand, and he's going to be looking for Tony
Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison, and Johnnie Morton all over the field.
The Vikes don't have the backfield talent to cover all of these
guys, especially Gonzalez. Gonzo is using every week to present
his case as the best TE in football: over the last 6 weeks Gonzo
has averaged about 65 yards a game, and he's racked up 6 TD's
in that span. He's an amazing athlete, and he presents too much
height, strength, and agility for the Vikings to cover. Look for
Green to open it up all day long, and expect the norm from Holmes.
This Chiefs offense brings too much to the table, and they should
produce more than enough offense to overcome their defensive shortcomings.
I don't know if this Vikings team has enough heart to win a game
of this magnitude, especially with so much on the line. The Chiefs
want home field advantage, the Vikes need to treat every game
like a playoff game. Take the Chiefs, and you can officially put
the Vikings on the playoff bubble.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Priest Holmes, Randy Moss, Trent Green, Daunte Culpepper,
Tony Gonzalez, Aaron Elling, Morten Andersen
2nd String: Michael Bennett, Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison, Kelly
Campbell, Moe Williams, Nate Burleson, Jim Kleinsasser, KC Defense,
Minnesota Defense
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Vikes 27
New England (12-2) at
NY Jets (6-8) Sat 8:30 PM
The Patriots keep rolling up wins like Snoop keeps rolling up
blunts (don't tell me, he quit
. sure). One after another,
10 in a row, truly an awesome season to say the least. Here's
a nice stat: in their 12 wins, they have averaged a point margin
of about 9 points. They don't blow too many teams out, and this
is the big point of contention from the detractors of the Patriots.
I prefer to think about it this way: how often do you see a 9
points spread in the NFL lines, and how often have you seen this
team not look comfortable no matter the size of the led? This
is the NFL, a league of parity, and games are supposed to be close.
The mark of a champion is the fact they find a way win the close
games. Tom Brady is a picture of collective calm, and he's able
to lead this team to victory every week. Don't get me wrong, I
understand this team is all about defense, but the fact remains
that points have to go on the board and the team has to be put
in position to score. Brady is responsible for the success in
that facet, and he's done it whether his team needed 9 points
to win or 38. The one weak point for this Patriot team that does
worry me is the lack of rushing production, and it would be nice
if they had a capable, big time running back for this game versus
the Jets. It's well known throughout football that the Jets are
more than vulnerable to a strong rushing attack (giving up 149
yds rushing a game). The Patriots struggle to run no matter whom
they play, and that is a concern. If you look at the results for
the Patriots thus far, you will notice a correlation of sorts:
when they have played teams with tough passing defenses (such
as Cleveland, Dallas, Miami) those have been games that have been
won with field goals (9-3, 12-0, & 12-0 respectively). Of
course, this isn't always the case: Indy has a pretty solid passing
defense and the Pats threw a 38 on 'em. I really like the Patriots,
and I think they could go all the way, but this game could be
a much tougher battle than you might think for those very reasons.
The Patriots really lack a tough running attack, and the Jets
play well versus the pass (giving up only 184 yds/game, only 11
passing TD's allowed thus far, and 33 sacks to date). This could
actually work in the favor of the Jets. Brady may be able to throw
well on any team, but if the Jets can keep him respectable and
avoid the big play, this could be very interesting.
What would you guess the biggest concern might be for a coach
of a team that has been dominant for the bulk of the season as
his squad heads into the postseason? I'll accept two answers,
though I'm looking for one. Injuries are an obvious concern and
are an acceptable response (however, I'd point out this is a concern
year around, and though it is magnified in the postseason it is
not the answer I was originally seeking). The biggest concern
has to be the performance of your team in the last two weeks of
the regular season. The last thing you want as a coach is to dominate
all year long, then to experience a let down in the last game
or so, allowing your team some doubt and maybe even a little doubt
as they head into the playoffs. You have to go into the postseason
winning, and that has been shown time and time again. Now, I bring
this up because I don't want to get 500 emails from the Patriot
fans out there (not that I mind, I love you guys and would call
Patriot fans the most passionate in the NFL; with the possible
exception of Green Bay fans, I get one email from fans of other
teams for every 5 I get from Patriot fans). I think this team
is very capable of winning out and going into the postseason with
a huge winning streak in tact. That said, I'm going to make a
case for the Jets winning this game in a low scoring, winter weather
game that is the result of the matchups. As I see it, this game
could be heavily influenced by two players, and those two players
are Ty Law and Rodney Harrison. Harrison and Law have been the
players that have kept the Patriots in some of those very tight
games. Some of the "experts" have gone as far as to
add Harrison to their personal list of 10 MVP candidates, and
rightfully so. The Patriots defense has become well known for
clamping down on offensive units, making big plays, forcing turnovers,
creating great coverage schemes and allowing QB's to think guys
are open when they are actually covered "from afar"
(sounds stupid but it's true, defensive schemes have afforded
him the title of "genius" during his career). However,
I offer 2 of the last 3 games on their schedule as proof that
this team is in fact vulnerable to the passing game (by the way,
I'm leaving out Miami, as I refuse to accept Jay Fiedler as a
fully competent QB). 3 weeks ago versus Manning: 278 yds, 4 TD's.
Last week versus Leftwich: 288 yds, 1 TD (and 2 picks; don't worry,
I won't sell 'em short). I also offer a bit of history: the last
time Pennington faced New England, he threw for 285 yds and 3
TD's (and NO picks, and that game was also the 2nd to last of
the year). This is a new year, but I think history is on my side.
I'm nuts, I'm crazy, I'm taking the Jets. I don't think a loss
will hurt the Patriots (though it would make the race for home
field advantage very interesting), I think the lack of a good
RB will hurt them, and I think the game will be very close. I'm
big on Pennington, and if the weather is decent in Jersey (forecast
looks ok today) I feel that the kid is good enough to (a) avoid
costly turnovers, and (b) take advantage of his opportunities.
Curtis Martin has been playing like his younger self, and Santana
Moss is always a threat. IF the Jets can contain Brady and keep
him respectable, IF the Jets can avoid turnovers (which they are
very good at), and IF the weather cooperates, I believe the Patriots
may be due for a small letdown, and the Jets could finish the
season around .500. And please, Pat fans, if I'm wrong (very possible!),
don't hunt me down!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Chad Pennington, Patriot Defense, Tom Brady, Santana
Moss, Daniel Graham
2nd String: Troy Brown, Deion Branch, Curtis Martin, David Givens,
Anthony Becht, Curtis Conway, Kevin Faulk, Doug Brien, Adam Vinatieri,
Jet Defense, LaMont Jordan
Prediction: Pats 17, Jets 20
Miami (8-6) at Buffalo
(6-8) 1:00 PM
How 'bout them Dolphins? Tanking in yet another December race
to the postseason, the Fins continue to amaze us all with their
inability to execute when it counts the most. I thought the additions
of proven league veterans like Junior Seau, Terrell Buckley, Jeff
Zgonina, and Sammy Knight were going to push this team to victories
in December, a month that has plagued Dolphin teams and fans for
years now. It looks like the Fins are ready to call it a donut
for December once again. They've lost two straight since beating
up on Dallas on Thanksgiving, and they've lost in ugly fashion.
Now, I will give you that those two losses did come against the
two hottest teams in football (New England and Philly). However,
the complete lack of offense versus the Patriots was concerning,
and the entirely horrible performance of the defense versus Philly
is even more so. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'm
not sold on Jay Fiedler (or Brian Griese for that matter) at the
QB spot, and I have yet to see anything to let me believe either
of these guys are capable of leading this team to meaningful victories.
Ricky Williams is the meat in Miami's stew, but that's a pretty
lean stew of late: in Miami's last 9 games Ricky has found the
end zone only 4 times. Not necessarily the numbers that make those
fantasy owners happy with their first round pick. This week, the
Fins get to travel to one of their favorite venues in the winter
months, Buffalo. Forecast for the game: high of 35 degrees, 40%
chance of snow, and an 80% chance of the Fins really sucking.
They get to face one of the toughest pass defenses in football,
as the Bills are allowing only 177 yards a game with only 13 passing
TD's allowed. Miami is having enough trouble passing with any
consistency as it is, and now they get to face the wrath of a
tough pass D and mother nature in a week that is essentially a
playoff game. Sorry Miami fans, but it's not looking too good
for a win.
The Bills have come on in recent weeks, having won 2 of their
last 3 games and in their last 4 losses they have been within
4 points of changing the outcome. Any fantasy owner with Drew
Bledsoe would sing you a song, actually it'd be more like a gothic
style death metal medley, about the primary reason for Buffalo's
struggles. Bledsoe had developed a bigger propensity for turnovers
than touchdowns: he currently has 11 TD's versus 10 picks (not
a good ratio). However, in his last 6 games he has thrown only
2 INT's and has brought his ratio back to level with 5 TD's in
that same span. You would still like to see more production out
of the guy, and with both of Buffalo's remaining games being played
in snow country it's tough to say it will happen this season.
Despite the troubles of the Bills and the struggles of the passing
game, you have to be impressed with the year Travis Henry is having.
The guy has racked up over 1,100 yards rushing for a team with
a struggling offensive line, not to mention the fact he's played
with two major injuries (torn rib cartilage and a cracked bone
in his leg, currently still an issue). That is what old school
football is all about: playing hurt, playing tough, and doing
what you can to help your team win. If Buffalo decides to dump
Henry to move along with Willis McGahee, any and every team with
any kind of need at RB should be clamoring for this guy. He's
got major cahones, and he's going to be key once again this week
versus the Dolphins. First, you look at the typical weather for
this time of year in Buffalo, and you see perfect conditions for
a good rushing attack. Second, the Miami defense hasn't been so
tough versus the run in recent weeks. They are currently ranked
4th overall for rushing defense, yet they gave up 140 combined
rushing yards to Philly last week, they gave up 80 rushing yards
to a New England team that hardly runs the ball, and they gave
up 92 combined rushing yards to a Dallas team that didn't even
give more than 5 carries to any one player. Henry is capable of
taking the fight to Miami and making that defense stay out in
the cold. If Buffalo can use the weather in their favor and if
they give Henry his carries (25 or more), this should result in
another Buffalo win. Miami is just in full-choke mode right now:
Ricky is playing well but it's not enough, Fiedler isn't getting
his job done, the defense is not keeping points off the board,
and Coach Dave Wannstedt doesn't have the mental makeup to pull
his team out of this funk. Miami beat this Buffalo team in the
warm confines of Pro Player in Week 3, and they won that one by
10 points. The weather, the change of venue, and the recent struggles
for the Dolphins are enough to see that 10 points swing the other
way this week. Stick a fork in it Miami, you won't be making the
postseason (and in the grand scheme of things, that may not be
all that bad).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Travis Henry, Ricky Williams, Buffalo Defense
2nd String: Fin Defense, Chris Chambers, Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds,
Randy McMichael, Jay Fiedler, Bobby Shaw, James McKnight (Questionable),
Olindo Mare, Josh Reed, Rian Lindell
Prediction: Fins 14, Bills 20
Washington (5-9) at Chicago
(6-8) 1:00 PM
Some things in life you will never grasp or comprehend: why is
American Idol so damn popular for producing so much of what we
don't need? If swing dancing can come back and be so popular,
why not polka? Does anyone really understand exactly what Michael
Irvin is saying, and how did he manage to rope that job? Is there
a GOOD reason why no one has franchised White Castle out west
(so I can go grab a bag of Sliders RIGHT NOW)? Here's a good one:
how did this Redskin team beat the Patriots back in Week 4? How
did that happen? This team is now trying their best to fall into
contention for the #1 draft pick and they beat the league's hottest
team. 3 wins in their last 12 games can only be classified as
complete failure. In the NFL, winning 25% of the time is total
and complete failure. This team now lies in the hands of a QB
that has very little experience, or protection for that matter,
and he's in charge of working a team with little to no running
game and a passing game designed to do 85% of the work. So things
are going good! This team comes into Chicago after getting their
butts severed and served on a silver platter by the Cowboys. They
did not manage to score a single point against one of, if not
the, top defense in the NFL. Chicago's defensive unit may not
be in the same class as the Cowboys as they currently sit, but
they have been playing pretty well. Having won 3 of their last
4 games, they have allowed 10 points or less in those wins and
have allowed an average of 187 passing yards a game. This unit
will definitely give young Hasselback problems, and without a
true running threat to give the offense some balance the Skins
could be looking at another tough game.
I was probably one of few, but I really enjoyed watching the
Bears beat the Vikings last week as rookie QB Rex Grossman made
his debut as the starter for the Bears. He was impressive: he
didn't put up a single turnover, he was composed and made great
decisions, he didn't hurt his team, and he's got one hell of an
arm. One should hope the Bears continue to start Grossman for
the remainder of the season. I'm reserving judgment until I see
more of the kid in game situations, but thus far I have to say
he looks great. He'll get a true test this weekend as the Redskins
come into town. Washington brings a pretty solid passing defense,
allowing 193 yards a game with 16 interceptions to show for their
efforts. You can bet they will have their eyes on Grossman's favorite
target, fellow rookie WR Justin Gage. This kid has the tools to
be a big time playmaker in the NFL: he's tall, fast, has great
hands, he can get physical, and he's gotten it done in key situations
for the Bears for several weeks now. Marty Booker has come back
on the fantasy radar and though he's not putting up the bulky
numbers he has in the past he is found the end zone in 2 of his
last 3 games. Of course we'd be remise if we didn't talk about
the A-Train and his outlook for the weekend. Thomas hasn't been
as productive as hoped in recent weeks, averaging about 70 yds/game
in his last 6 appearances. He's been bothered with illness in
recent weeks and has gotten some great relief from rookie RB Brock
Forsey out of Boise State. Have you noticed the word "rookie"
keeps popping up in here? Anyway, with Thomas and Forsey taking
handoffs the Bears are likely to find the Skin's defense much
to their liking: the Skins give up about 140 yds/game on the ground.
Look for A-Train to get the ball early and often and open up the
field for Grossman. The defensive line for Washington is more
likely to get better pressure on Grossman than Minnesota did last
week, but Grossman hand the pressure he did receive with amazing
composure and I don't expect Washington is going to rattle his
cage too much. Look for the Bears to continue their late season
swoon, and look for the Redskins to sink further into their late
season demise.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Anthony Thomas, Justin Gage, John Hall, Paul Edinger,
Chicago Defense
2nd String: Rex Grossman, Laveranues Coles, Marty Booker, Dez
White, Rod Gardner, Tim Hasselback, Trung Candidate (Questionable),
Desmond Clark (Questionable), Rock Cartwright, Darnerien McCants,
Redskin Defense
Prediction: Skins 13, Bears 23
Baltimore (8-6) at Cleveland
(4-10) 1:00 PM
Just when the bandwagon heading to Baltimore was getting full,
when everyone was picking the Ravens to win out and take the AFC
North running away, just when things were going good for Raven
fans, their team comes out and blows what should have been a win
over a mediocre Oakland team. Now, with the Bengals taking advantage
(not to mention the Broncos and Titans who are all fighting for
the two wild card positions), the Ravens find themselves in a
tie for the division and in jeopardy of slipping out of the playoffs.
If that wasn't enough drama, the Ravens get to visit their old
home in Cleveland, where Raven's owner Art Modell is beloved by
all. Needless to say, it's more insulting to see the team that
left move on, win a Super Bowl, and compete for the post season
every year while the "new" Browns flounder through the
season hoping to figure out who they are and how to win. So how
would you guess the Ravens will come at the Browns this weekend?
I wonder if Jamal Lewis will be the focal point of the offense.
Hmmmm. The Browns give up 123 yds rushing a game, Lewis is chasing
2,000 yards for the season (needing 253 yards to get there), and
.. hey, does anyone know about Lewis' history versus the
Browns. OH YEAH! These guys matched up in Week 2, the game in
which Lewis ran like monster for 295 yards and 2 TD's. Then, last
season, you must remember when Lewis came to Cleveland and hit
the Browns for 187 yards. Of course, there was the game in Baltimore
last season, when Lewis dumped another 100 yards on them. Let's
summarize: Jamal Lewis loves to rip the Browns apart with his
legs, averaging 194 yards a game over the last 3 matchups of these
teams. I wonder if you will keep Lewis in your fantasy lineup
this weekend! To help matters, the Ravens are sporting a new and
improved passing game by QB Anthony Wright. Wright has afforded
the Ravens some new schemes and game plans that can allow for
some passing to open up the field for Lewis. Todd Heap is finally
getting his due as a top flight TE in the NFL, and he's sure to
be a factor in this game as well. With four losses in a row at
the hands of their own defense (unable to keep opponents off the
board, giving up an average of 24 points a game over the last
4 weeks), it is hard to devise an argument for the Browns suddenly
discovering the secret to stopping Lewis, much less the rest of
the Ravens' offense.
Let's take the bets on who is starting at QB for the Browns this
weekend. My money is on Ryan Leaf. Or maybe Butch Davis will take
the job at Nebraska this week and bring in college QB Jammal Lord
as a loaner from his new digs. Or maybe Butch will shock us all
and stick with one guy for an entire game. JUST PICK A GUY, IT
DOESN'T MATTER! It's Holcomb, now it's Couch, now Couch is injured,
now Holcomb sucks so bad we need to get Couch back out there,
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Can you really blame Willie Green
for relieving the stress with a couple of pulls from the bong?
I mentioned the previous game between these teams in which Jamal
Lewis rushed like a man among boys against the porous Cleveland
defense. Here's the good news: this is a new game. Here's the
bad news: this is a new game, and the Browns couldn't be in a
worse spot. Baltimore's defense is clicking much better than earlier
in the season when these two paired up to result in a 20-point
beat down by the Ravens. Give some props to Chris McAlister: he's
been shutting down the top WR for every opponent for several weeks
now. You all know Ray Lewis is the best, and the play of rookie
Terrell Suggs and veteran Peter Boulware is worthy of mention
as well (I'd throw in tackle Kelly Gregg as well, though his numbers
aren't as big he's been a solid performer). Not only are the Ravens
starting to really kick in on defense, but the Browns are starting
to really fall apart on offense. The QB limbo has become a play-by-play
occurrence and the rest of the team is suffering through a nice
list of injuries. Jamel White has stepped nicely at RB, not putting
up Pro Bowl numbers but he's at least giving the Browns some stability
at the position that has lacked it all year. This team doesn't
have a single 1,000-yard receiver. Andre Davis, Quincy Morgan,
and Dennis Northcutt are solid players, but none of the three
has stepped up to become the leader or go-to guy for a team desperately
in need of one. Couch or Holcomb, take your pick, have both combined
for too many interceptions and not enough TD's. Butch Davis (I
know, I know, I was praising this guy a few weeks ago, so crucify
me) is truly on the hot seat and I have to believe that gig in
Lincoln, Nebraska has to be tempting. It's impossible to make
a convincing argument for the Browns in this one. Let's put the
Xman bonus on the Ravens. By the way, I'm not putting ANY of the
Browns' players on the 1st String, as I can't find one worthy
of the gamble (especially in the fantasy playoffs).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Jamal Lewis, Baltimore Defense, Todd Heap, Matt Stover
2nd String: Anthony Wright, Kelly Holcomb/Tim Couch, Marcus Robinson,
Travis Taylor, Andre Davis, Quincy Morgan, Jamel White, Dennis
Northcutt, Cleveland Defense
Prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 17
NY Giants (4-10) at Dallas
(9-5) 1:00 PM
I JUST heard on the radio that Jim Fassel is going to lose his
job. I also heard Pearl Harbor is under attack, the NFL is going
to join with the AFL to make AFC and NFC conference-style league,
the Ford Pinto is being recalled due to safety issues, there is
a company releasing some new fancy "birth control" pill,
and the world is indeed not flat. Not exactly exciting news, nor
is it a surprise. This team started to mail in games about 4 or
5 weeks ago. They just suck. Wait
I said that last week
and I try not to be redundant. They REALLY suck. I thought Joe
Horn was pulling a Shannon Sharpe last week when he pulled the
cell phone on the Giants, taking the opportunity to call in the
medics and National Guard, except I didn't think it was a joke.
Maybe he was just making a late tee time as he could have taken
the rest of the game off and the Saints still would have killed
the Giants. They've lost six straight, and somehow managed to
sneak in two wins in their last 11 games. During that 6 game losing
streak, the Giants have scored an average of about 8 points a
game. In that same stretch, they have been giving up 27 points
a game. If you look it up in the Webster dictionary, that point
differentially is actually defined as "really sucking."
There is not one positive aspect to point to on this team. OK,
I'll give you one: Matt Bryant is a good kicker with a great attitude
and tenacity. I feel for Amani Toomer, as he deserves so much
more. It's hard to imagine Kerry Collins will get back on the
field again this season, but who knows. With Fassel on his way
out and the team gearing up for the big gold season, it's hard
to imagine any reason why we should care. Bring on the draft picks!!!
Dallas has to be licking their chops, just aching to kill this
lame duck Giants team. The Boys are in the midst of a race to
the playoffs, fighting for a wild card berth with Seattle, Minnesota/Green
Bay, and I suppose you could add New Orleans/Tampa Bay in the
mix (though they are all but dead). Dallas has to be looking at
this game as a great opportunity to put another nail in the coffin
of Bill Parcells' old team, as well as a great chance to pick
up another very important win. Troy Hambrick had a big breakout
game last week, racking up 189 yards rushing as the Boys beat
up the Redskins, and he's going to get some shots at the struggling
Giants D (I'm not sold on him yet, but he's looked better and
this game is an excellent opportunity to prove himself again).
The Giants give up 121 yards rushing a game & 218 yards passing
a game. Therefore, I'm going to guess the Cowboys will pass with
success and will rush for productive numbers. I'm also going to
go out on a limb and guess the Dallas defense will crush this
pathetic offense. It's probably a reach, but I think the Giants
could get shutout in this game. They are in Dallas, facing what
is the best-ranked defense in the NFL, with no offense, no defense,
no heart, no pride, no gumption, and no desire to win. I wish
I could make more of this game. I may not even preview the Giants
next week. We all have better things to do: breath, eat, sleep,
maybe even shower occasionally. It's more enjoyable to watch rainfall,
and I'm sure most of the Giant fans out there would agree. This
team is horrid, and the Boys couldn't be farther down the spectrum
of the NFL. With this game and one left in New Orleans, the fans
of the Cowboys have to be feeling confident about the chances
of making the postseason. Not only am I not willing to put the
Giants' players on the 1st String, I hesitate to name them at
all out of respect for their families. Let's throw Toomer in the
mix, just for the sake giving the man his due. But don't start
him! Take the Boys in a good, old fashioned, Texas size butt kickin'.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Dallas Defense, Quincy Carter, Joey Galloway, Billy
Cundiff
2nd String: Terry Glenn, Troy Hambrick, Antonio Bryant, Richie
Anderson, Amani Toomer, Jason Witten, Matt Bryant
Prediction: Giants 10, Boys 24
Detroit (4-10) at Carolina
(9-5) 1:00 PM
Let me hear all the Lion fans, all the Lion fans, say HOOO! Say
Ho, ho! Say we suck butts! Say we suck butts! Now somebody, everybody,
scream! I love the old school rap references. The Lions are a
bad team. They've got very few weapons to use. Joey Harrington,
as I've contended all season, is a stud QB and would do much better
with some support. Coach Steve Mariucci activated rookie RB Artose
Pinner in hopes of giving his team a shot in the arm and some
fresh blood, but Pinner hasn't seen much game time at all (9 carries
last week). It looks like Charles Rogers is done for the year,
Az-Zir Hakim has his moments but is far from being a solid #1
guy, and the other guys surrounding Harrington just aren't that
good. Feels like I've said this about too many teams this week,
but the Lions are definitely in the running for that top draft
pick. This week they could find some production against a struggling
Carolina defense. In recent weeks the Panthers have really struggled
to keep teams out of the end zone. They don't give up a ton of
points, but they do give up just enough to lose. Opponents are
racking up about 204 yards passing a game and 114 yards rushing
a game: not exactly as impressive as you might have thought for
a defense so full of talent. The loss of Mark Fields has been
a bigger factor than I believe most of us could have perceived.
One good spot for the Panthers is the return of Dan Morgan this
week (he's been battling problems related to a concussion). Regardless,
the Cats had better shore up those numbers this week or they could
find themselves in the midst of an upset. This isn't the time
of year to be on the bad end of a big upset. Although they have
clinched the division title, it is important to go into the playoffs
winning and carry that momentum into the games that matter.
The Panthers haven't been putting up the offensive numbers they
had worked so hard to achieve in earlier weeks. They needed a
late 49-yard field goal from John Kasay to beat Arizona (I told
you that game would be close) last week. They lost to Atlanta
in the return of Mike Vick the week before. The two weeks before
that they picked up two tough losses, to Philly by 9 and to Dallas
by 4 points. Stephen Davis, the team's offensive power horse,
has failed to reach 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games (though
he did pick up a TD in 3 of those games). Jake Delhomme has been
a solid QB all year, but in recent weeks he's come up a little
short. He's thrown 5 TD's in his last 4 games, but he's also thrown
4 INT's (he's at 15 TD's/14 INT's thus far overall). This team
is built to win close games: solid defense, great power rushing
game, competent passing game. However, they haven't been winning
too many of these close games late in the season. I'd venture
to say this team lacks the true "punch" they need on
offense to put them in the same league as the upper echelon teams.
Fortunately, the Detroit Lions are not one of those teams (not
even close). The Cats have more than enough offense to take advantage
of the struggling Detroit defense (giving up 116 yards rushing
per game and 226 passing as well). The Panthers should use Davis
plenty of times to keep his fantasy owners happy (one of the better
fantasy match ups for your playoff picture). Look for a little
DeShaun Foster as well, mixing the speed and power as the Panthers
rev up for the playoffs. Delhomme should find some production
with Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed, the running game should
be solid, and the defense should be all over Joey Harrington.
There's not much reason to believe the Lions will win, but they
could keep it respectable.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Stephen Davis (Questionable), Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme,
John Kasay, Carolina Defense, Joey Harrington, Jason Hanson
2nd String: Shawn Bryson, DeShaun Foster, Artose Pinner, Az-Zir
Hakim, Muhsin Muhammed, Bill Schroeder, Mikhael Ricks, Detroit
Defense
Prediction: Lions 14, Panthers 27
New Orleans (7-7) at Jacksonville
(4-10) 1:00 PM
The Saints were rather impressive last week, but you might say
the same if you watched, say, a pack of pit bulls attack a small
family of crippled ducks. That is what I equate the Saints versus
the Giants to last week. It's not a fair comparison: you have
one team in the Saints, loaded with talent and fighting for the
playoffs, and the other team in the Giants, loaded with loathing
and indifference and fighting for the door. The Saints get a true
test this week as they face the Jaguars. The Jags have grown by
leaps and bounds on defense and have now become one of the best
defensive units in football. They sport the #2 ranked rushing
defense, allowing only 84 yards a game and having given up only
4 runs of 20 yards or more. The Jags are currently ranked 15th
versus the pass, giving up less than 200 yards a game through
the air. Therefore, although Deuce McAllister is a total stud
and can run respectably on any team, the Saints had better bring
their passing game to compete in this one. Aaron Brooks has struggled
for most of the season, with a major knack for fumbling the ball
(14 total this year alone). Although he's a great passer with
a strong arm, he's not the most accurate guy in the world and
he's come very close to getting benched on several occasions due
to his turnovers and lack of production. He has broken the 250-yard
mark only 4 times this year, and some of that can be attributed
to the injuries and struggles of his primary receivers. Joe Horn
has battled with injuries; Donte Stallworth is still battling
with injuries. Horn's obviously back to 100% as he lit up the
Giants for 4 TD's last week. Horn had better bring some big plays
again this week as the Jags are likely to give Brooks and McAllister
a very tough time. The Saints are known for their offensive consistency:
throwing up 45 on lesser teams (i.e. the Giants and Falcons) is
not a problem, but they have struggled to score big number against
tougher defensive units (Titans, Panthers, Bucs). The Jags could
and should be mentioned in the same breathe as the other defensive
units, and, thus, it is hard to bet on the Saints going crazy
on the scoreboard.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Jags are still a work
in progress. Fred Taylor is firmly planted as a stud RB, and his
contributions have led the offense of the Jags thus far. Since
the inception of rookie QB Byron Leftwich the Jags have watched
their young talent steadily improve to become a big threat every
time he takes the field. We all knew Leftwich could be good, but
it's safe to say he's progressing at an alarming rate. He's seems
to have a great chemistry with his best receiver, Jimmy Smith,
and the two can combine for a score from anywhere on the field.
These three players give the Jags a viable offensive threat, but
the depth is not there. Troy Edwards serves as the #2 wideout,
and he's a nice player but hardly a big time worry for opposing
offenses. The Saints don't bring a strong defensive presence to
the house anyway: ranked 26th versus the run (137 yds/game), though
they are doing well versus the pass (ranked 8th overall, allowing
185 yds/game). That said, they are missing one of their best defensive
backs in Dale Carter (I've looked it up, but he's not listed on
the IR and hasn't been but he's missing games and the team has
commented that he's been unable to go). So the Jags are going
to be in a similar boat as the Saints: facing tough passing defenses,
the rushing games carry the bulk of the offensive load. I love
both of these rushers and feel they are both very underrated.
This could be a great game, and I like the Jags to play spoilers
at home. The Saints are capable of putting up big time numbers,
but I feel the Jags are playing very well and despite the tough
loss the Patriots last week they have been rolling on defense.
I think Brooks is going to have a very tough game, and I don't
like his record in tough games and under the pressure of a top-notch
defense. Deuce will get his yards, but it won't be enough. The
Jags have a good offense that is capable of performing well against
the odds: last week, they became the first team to find the end
zone against the Pats in the last 5 games at Gillette Stadium
as Byron Leftwich hooked up with Kevin Johnson late in the game.
The Pats don't give up a lot of scoring at home or away, and the
Jags did move the ball up and down the field against them. The
Saints' D isn't nearly as good, and the Jags should continue play
well and take advantage.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, Jimmy Smith,
Jag Defense, Seth Marler, John Carney
2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Aaron Brooks, Donte Stallworth, Boo
Williams, Kyle Brady, LaBrandon Toefield, Saint Defense
Prediction: Saints 20, Jags 23
Tennessee (10-4) at Houston
(5-9) 1:00 PM
And we come to the Titans, the team falling out of the minds and
thoughts of many after being cal the best team in football just
a few short weeks ago. After winning 6 straight, the Titans had
lost 2 in a row and almost added a third game to the L column
this last weekend. Fortunately for them, Billy Volek was able
to lead the team back against Buffalo and eventually pick up a
2-point win. Unfortunately, the Titans have now lost Volek for
the remainder of the season (spleen laceration) and are in desperate
need of a strong backup QB to help them get through this late
stretch into the postseason. Word is they are talking to veteran
Titan QB Neil O'Donnell about coming into help rest veteran QB
and MVP candidate Steve McNair as he lets his injured left ankle
heel. Too bad we are so late in the year and in the hunt for the
postseason: I'd love to see rookie Jason Gesser from Washington
State get some game play. However, this is a rough time of year
for the Titans. The Colts have already clinched their the AFC
South and the Titans are in a tough fight for the wild card. Losses
cannot be afford and they need a good, proven, veteran QB to led
the team into these final two games. O'Donnell is a great candidate:
he was with the Titans for a long time as McNair's backup and
has played well in the past for the Titans. He knows almost all
of the current players and he has the history and experience to
take this team over when their leader is down and out. If they
can get O'Donnell back in the fold, they should get into the playoffs
and make some noise. If not, they may not make it and their chances
in both of the last two games may be significantly hampered.
The one aspect of the Titans that can kick without McNair is
the defense. The defense is pretty solid, currently ranked #1
versus the run giving up only 79 yards a game and only 9 TD's
on the ground thus far. The passing D isn't so great: 228 yards
a game. The Texans had better bring their team leader to this
game. Although they aren't going into the playoffs, the Texans
do have on thing in common with the Titans. They are also missing
their starting QB and team leader, David Carr. Carr has been out
for a while now, and after losing backup QB Tony Banks to a broken
leg, rookie Dave Ragone took over. He has not faired very well
at all (in 2 games as a starter, he has thrown for only 135 combined
yards with 0 TD's). The latest word is that Carr is likely to
play this weekend, and this give the Texans a much different team.
The entire offense will function better and the production should
come easier with Carr on the field not only for the passing game
but also for Domanick Davis and the rushing game. Davis is a great
back and has tons of potential, but with the Tennessee defense
playing so well against the run it's hard to put too much faith
in Davis. If the Texans are going to get it done it's going to
be Carr to do it. The Texans need to throw the ball and Andre
Johnson should be target #1. By the way, has anyone noticed that
the four of the five names I've mentioned are second year players
or less (Tony Banks is the old fart of the team). So much rides
on the QB for the Titans. The Texans defense is not very good
versus the run or the pass (especially now that Aaron Glenn is
hurt). In order for the Titans to take advantage, they need to
have a team leader and a guy that can heave the rock to take advantage
of the soft defensive backfield. McNair could play injured, but
you'd like to see a healthy Neil O'Donnell in the game running
the show. I'm guessing the Titans win, somehow. Whether they get
O'Donnell, whether they stick Gesser out there, whether they get
McNair to take the field despite injury, the Titans will get it
done.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Steve McNair (Questionable), Neil O'Donnell/Jason
Gesser (if O'Donnell is signed), Derrick Mason, Gary Anderson,
Titan Defense, David Carr, Andre Johnson
2nd String: Domanick Davis, Eddie George, Chris Brown, Justin
McCareins, Jabar Gaffney, Billy Miller, Tyrone Calico, Kris Brown,
Texan Defense
Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 17
Cincinnati (8-6) at St.
Louis (11-3) 1:00 PM
The Bengals have bounced back nicely after losing a tough game
to division rival Baltimore. They beat the hell out of the 49ers
last week as the entire offense got involved in the effort. Rudi
Johnson had a phenomenal game, Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick
combined for some big yards, and John Kitna reminded everyone
he is worthy of MVP consideration. That win gets the Bengals back
into a tie for the division led in the AFC North. This team should
make the playoffs, but with the schedule bringing them to St.
Louis it is fair to say those hopes are in a bit of doubt this
weekend. St. Louis is a tough place for visiting teams as the
home team is often helped immensely by the aspects of their arena
(the turf, the crowd, etc.). The Rams also bring a tough defense.
Currently ranked 11th against the pass, the defensive backfield
for the Rams is as solid as you will find in the NFC. Aeneas Williams
seems to have found the fountain of youth, and Adam Archuletta
is
I've gone on about him enough. Cincy has a great offense
and they could get it done against almost any team out there.
However, this weekend is not going to be easy. I'd suggest the
whole deal rides on Chad Johnson. When CJ has had a big game,
the Bengals have had more success and are more capable of winning.
When teams have buck down the explosive WR (Baltimore, Buffalo),
the Bengals have struggled not just to score but also the move
the chains. If the Bengals are going to win, they need to get
CJ open and they need to get him the ball. Rudi will get his carries
(the Rams are giving up 126 yards rushing a game, by the way),
and Kitna will take his shots. It's just a question if anyone
will be able to make plays on the other end.
The Rams have got everyone's attention now. They are winning
and they are winning in every way imaginable. Last week they jumped
on Seattle early and then let them get back in it. Suddenly, like
a call from above, Coach Mike Martz decided to get the ball to
his best playmaker, Marshall Faulk. Faulk led his team downfield
and got them into field goal range, thus winning the game for
his team. I've gone on rants about Martz and his inability to
give the ball to Faulk before, so I will spare you this week.
However, I do feel I was justified last week by Faulk's performance.
This week the Rams get a look at another team fighting for the
playoffs as the Bengals come to town. The Bengals defense, as
it sits right now, is not exactly powerful or consistent. They
give up some yards (219 passing, 129 rushing), and they also allow
more scoring than you would like to see. However, the team is
improving. Coach Marv Lewis is a defensive genius, and he's taken
this squad with very little talent and made them respectable.
Too bad they are playing the speed show on the turf this weekend.
The Rams are a great home team, sporting a record of 7 & 0
at home. Marc Bulger has once again secured his position as the
starting QB for a team that loves to pass the ball. Torry Holt
is having an MVP year and Isaac Bruce has shown that he can still
be a playmaker as well. The Bengals don't have the talent to cover
these guys, and the biggest concern may be Marshall Faulk. Faulk
can do it all: he can run out of the backfield, he can run out
of the pack, he can run between the tackles, he can catch short
and long passes, and he's got the moves and speed to pick up big
time plays after the catch. I don't know that the Bengals have
the talent on defense to stop all of these weapons. It could be
a very good game, and the Rams are likely to come out on top.
Both teams are fighting for postseason position (Rams for home
field advantage, Bengals to get in), and both teams will bring
their best to the field. With that, I'm taking the Rams. They
are just too good in all aspects of the game to lose at home.
The Rams are one of those teams that you look at and think, "They
could go all the way." And, like I said, if you want to win
the postseason you have to win in December and go into the playoffs
with some momentum. The Rams could be one of those teams, and
the Bengals are a team that may be just short of making the dance.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk, Marc Bulger, Chad Johnson,
Jon Kitna, Jeff Wilkins
2nd String: Rudi Johnson, Peter Warrick, Isaac Bruce (Questionable),
Dane Looker, Brandon Maneamula, Matt Schobel, Shayne Graham, Cincy
Defense, Rams Defense
Prediction: Bengals 27, Rams 38
San Diego (3-11) at Pittsburgh
(5-9) 4:05 PM
The Chargers would like to add their name to the list of teams
hoping to get the #1 draft pick. They may need it as they have
yet to decide if Drew Brees is worthy of their "QB of the
future" tag. The future was supposed to be this year and
Brees was disappointing in most of his games. The Bolts have struggled
to find some offense in support of superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.
Tomlinson has even come on as the best receiving threat in recent
weeks. Hey, if you can't get it done behind the offensive line,
then put LT out there on short routes, get him beyond that line
of scrimmage, and let him do his thing from there. FINALLY! They
are getting the ball in the hands of the playmaker. The Bolts
could have a better record if they had followed this game plan
earlier in the year, not to mention the effect it might have had
on the season for Drew Brees. Regardless, the team is not good,
and overall you could say they are one of the three worst teams
in the NFL without question. LT is a great performer and player,
but he's not capable of lifting this team above their overall
mediocrity. No player is that good. So, when we look at the match
up with the Steelers this weekend, we have to ask if this team
is capable of rising above the defensive challenge presented by
the Steelers. The Black and Gold have struggled with different
aspects of their defensive game (namely allowing big plays, troubles
covering the big time receivers, and a lack of consistency against
the run). Although LT will offer a great challenge for the Steelers
and he's likely to find some productive yards, it is highly unlikely
the rest of the Bolts will have any success. Pitt's defense holds
opponents to 190 yards passing and to 107 rushing on average.
The defense is fairly solid, and with the Bolts lacking more than
one true big time playmaker, it is hard to see how the Bolts will
take advantage of the Pittsburgh vulnerabilities.
On offense, the Steelers are struggling in all kinds of ways.
They can't pass the ball with any kind of confidence or consistency.
They run the ball but the style of their rushing attack is very
predictable and it's just a matter of the defense having the tacklers
to make the plays. Their offensive line has struggled to protect
the QB, their receivers are solid but have struggled in recent
weeks with dropped passes, and the team as a whole is best described
as a weekly hit-or-miss. This is not a team to bet on week in
and week out. Now, all that is on the table, and we can look at
how this team matches up with the Chargers. The Bolts possess
a defense that is a mirror image of their offense: pathetic for
the most part, but capable of making some plays. Quentin Jammer
has come on in recent weeks as a good cornerback on the wide receiver
covers, and he's capable of making your team pay if you make a
mistake. Sammy Davis is another rookie that has stepped up his
play in recent weeks. These guys are capable of making plays against
a passing attack like the Steelers will bring. Hines Ward, Plaxico
Burress, and Antwaan Randle El are possibly the most dangerous
threesome in the NFL, and they will take their shots. If the Chargers
can get some QB pressure (not likely) they could force some bad
throws and get the ball on turnovers. Against the run, the Chargers
are awful. This team lacks the strong presence needed in the middle
and at linebacker to keep the rushing attack under wraps. This
is a great game for Jerome Bettis to come out and show he's still
capable of putting up respectable numbers, not to mention his
ability to keep the Bolts guessing on defense. One more major
factor: the weather. In Pittsburgh, the outlook for Sunday is
a high of 33 and a 40% chance of snow, and the Chargers aren't
known for their history on the road in cold towns. Brees is from
the Midwest, so he should be somewhat appreciative of the weather.
However, the rest of the team is very unlikely to love the cold,
and that could be a determent to their chances. As much as I love
LT and his progress, I don't think this Bolt team is worthy of
my time and consideration. One name continues to pop into my mind
when I watch this team play: Ben Roethlisberger.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Pitt Defense, LaDainian Tomlinson, Hines Ward, Jerome
Bettis
2nd String: Tommy Maddox, Plaxico Burress, Drew Brees, David Boston,
Antwaan Randle El, Antonio Gates, Eric Parker, Amos Zereoue, Jay
Reimersma, Jeff Reed, Steve Christie, Bolt Defense
Prediction: Bolts 17, Steelers 24
Arizona (3-11) at Seattle
(8-6) 4:15 PM
The Cards are another team desperate to screw up that first draft
pick! They have at least tried to stay competitive and we should
give them some propers as they have battled in recent games (at
least when they play at home). Well, this week they go on the
road again, and it's likely to follow the normal pattern of the
Cardinals getting slaughtered. On the road, the Cardinals have
scored an average of about 12 points. In those same games they
have allowed an average of 36 points! 36 POINTS!!! You will win
zero games when you are allowing an AVERAGE of 36 points a game,
and low and behold, the Cardinals are 0 & 7 on the road. They
are the anti-Rams. Here's another tidbit: these two teams, the
Seahawks and Cardinals, played each other IN ARIZONA, back in
Week 2. Final score: Seattle 38, Arizona 0. I don't see much of
a need to review any of Arizona's numbers or players. You want
me to be cordial? OK. Rookie QB Josh McCown will get the start
once again so the coaches can continue to get this place ready
for the next coach to take over this team. Marcel Shipp may be
the best player on a bad team. Other than that, I've got nothing.
I enjoy watching Arizona games, when all the other games on are
simultaneously at commercial. Otherwise, I like to watch my dog
piss on the carpet. Arizona isn't nearly as entertaining as that,
so we won't get into the specifics. They are playing in Seattle,
they are playing a top notch Seattle offense, and their inability
to do anything on the road will go there with them.
Seattle has to be happy to have Arizona coming to town. Battling
for a wild card spot in the tight NFC is proving to be a little
closer for comfort than the Seahawks would prefer. However, things
are looking good as one of the worst teams in football, and definitely
the world's worst team on the road, is coming to town to play
a scrimmage game. Just consider this a practice for the upcoming
playoffs. While Arizona struggles to find their problems (although
they seem fairly evident: there is the team, they almost all suck,
go to it), the Seahawks are busy whopping it up. They have lost
2 straight including an embarrassment at Minnesota. However, in
all of their games, the Hawks have competed well and performed
solid throughout the bulk of the season. Here's an interesting
note: all the losses for the Seahawks have come on the road! Odd
really, but it works out in their favor this week. Arizona can't
win on the road, Seattle fairs very well at home: it really sounds
like a win/win situation for Seattle. Look for Matt Hasselback
to come out and throw all over the field to Darrell Jackson and
Koren Robinson. Look for Shaun Alexander to get his 20 carries
and it is likely that Maurice Morris will also get some snaps.
There is little to no reason to believe this is about the matchups
and numbers, and it is not worthy of tons of time checking stats
and figures. Seattle has way too much talent for the Cardinals
to compete with, and the march to the playoffs should go continue
without much of a fight.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback, Darrell Jackson,
Koren Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Josh Brown, Seattle Defense
2nd String: Marcel Shipp, Bobby Engram, Itula Mili, Josh McCown,
Bryant Johnson, Maurice Morris, Freddie Jones, Arizona Defense
Prediction: Cards 17, Seahawks 38
San Francisco (6-8) at
Philadelphia (11-3) 4:15 PM
The Niners are really an odd team, tough to figure out. So we
look at their schedule and you'll notice one fact right away:
every one of San Fran's 6 wins was at home! HEY, IS ANYONE NOTICING
A PATTERN FOR MANY OF THESE TEAMS JUST YET? THE WINS AT HOME &
LOSSES ON THE ROAD, THE INABILITY TO BREAK A PATTERN AS SUCH OVER
THE COURSE OF A 16 GAME SEASON, AND THE LACK OF EFFORT TO GET
BEYONCE KNOWLES TO SING AND DANCE AT ANY OF THESE GAMES TO MAKE
THEM MUCH MORE INTERESTING FOR ME? Why won't someone make an effort
to help these teams become more "attractive" to view,
say by bringing in Beyonce every few minutes for sideline reports
or to do some dancing during timeouts, especially in towns where
it is cold while Beyonce could be wearing some form-fitting, light-weight
numbers? Anyway, I digress. The Niners can't win on the road.
They are 0 & 7 on the road this season, and now they get to
travel to the cold winter of Philadelphia and take on one of the
hottest teams in the NFL today. The Eagles are starting to get
healthy, especially on defense as they have gotten Brian Dawkins
back among others, and they are starting to play lights out football.
They do allow some scoring (for instance, they allowed 27 to Miami
last week), and they do give up some yards (203 yds/game passing,
128 yds/game rushing), and they have become very vulnerable to
a strong running attack. Kevan Barlow has brought some solid running
to the table in recent games for the Niners, but he's also battled
some tough turnovers, namely fumbles in the red zone. Barlow is
a good talent, but I'm not convinced that he can carry the load
by himself, despite all the work of the Niners over the years
to groom this kid and make him a big time player. I don't know
that he will ever get it, and I really don't know if he is capable
of leading this team as the primary rusher. Jeff Garcia is going
to have to come out and find Terrell Owens. TO is the only real
hope this team has to win most game. He's the playmaker, he can
make the difference in a game of this magnitude, and he can lead
the team down the home stretch. Garcia has looked pretty good
since returning from injury, but he has yet to face (and beat)
a team that is as good this Eagles team (I might give you St.
Louis, but I'd note that was, of course, at home!). The Niners
do have some great talent, but until they put it all together
outside of the confines of their own stadium it is going to be
hard to believe this team is capable of winning a big time game.
How about Donovan McNabb? Now, I want to make one thing clear.
I NEVER said this kid was done. Yes, I did claim he was struggling
(true), yes I did claim he wouldn't get better any time soon,
and yes I did forecast that McNabb would get better sometime after
midseason at the earliest. I think I was close, close enough to
cut me a break for not seeing this team going 11 & 3. The
scary thing is that the Eagles are just now starting to get healthy.
They are getting key role players back into the lineup and they
are taking a hot streak of momentum into the postseason. If they
can stay healthy and keep up their recent levels of effort, it
is hard to argue against this team going to the Big Dance. This
week they look to extend their current 9-game winning streak against
a not so tough San Francisco 49ers defense. The Niners are giving
up 108 yards rushing a game and 195 yards a game passing. McNabb
could have some trouble throwing the ball this weekend, and the
Eagles may look to both Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter
to get the rushing attack moving to open thing up downfield. It
hasn't seemed to matter how the defensive schemes have been built
to deal with Donovan and company; they've been putting up points
and moving the chains regardless. It's hard for me to say the
Niners will stand a chance in this one. After dumping their first
2 games, the Eagles have won all but one of their games to this
point. I don't see how the Niners break this defense, I don't
see how the Niners keep Donovan and company under wraps, and I
don't see how the Eagles lose this game. I'll take the Eagles.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, David
Akers, Philly Defense
2nd String: Jeff Garcia, Correll Buckhalter, Kevan Barlow, Tai
Streets, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, LJ Smith, Deuce Staley,
Chad Lewis, 49er Defense
Prediction: Niners 14, Eagles 31
Denver (9-5) at Indianapolis
(11-3) 8:30 PM
Now this is more like it! This is a good game, a game with playoff
implications, a game with a little bit of competition and intrigue.
Finally! The Broncos come in after a close call versus the Browns,
having won in OT on a Jason Elam kick. This team needs to approach
every game like a playoff game: they cannot afford another loss
and they have this and one more tough game left. The big question
mark is the health of Clinton Portis. His MRI's have come back
negative, but he is still struggling with some pain. Right now,
I'd have to guess he will sit it out, but you won't really know
until game time. Portis is so important to the Denver offense
that most would jump ship if Portis can't go. I'd guess he's sitting
and he may not be back as early as hoped. This could be a major
problem for Denver as the Colts possess a great passing defense,
currently ranked 3rd in the NFL (176 yds/game). Jake Plummer hasn't
been super great in recent games anyway, and it is likely the
Colts will take the fight and Dwight Freeney to his grill. The
Broncos need this win, and although Mike "that pot isn't
mine" Anderson is a capable backup, he cannot be considered
a major offensive threat. Without Portis, the Broncos could be
looking at a long night. They need to run the ball, they need
to open up the passing lanes and make defensive units respect
the passing game, and they need a win more than anything.
The Colts have some offensive weapons you may be familiar with.
Peyton Manning heads the group at QB. Now, in recent weeks I have
made arguments for Tom Brady, Jamal Lewis, and John Kitna as MVP
candidates. I will now ask for a pass to revise my statements:
although I do believe all of those guys I mentioned deserve recognition,
Peyton Manning has to be the favorite to win right now. He's been
money and has been dominant all year long. He's got ungodly numbers:
3901 yards, 67.5% completion rate, 7.7 yds/catch, 28 TD's, 9 INT's,
101.6 QB rating. Just awesome numbers and he is clearly the leader
of this team. The Colts are looking to pick up home field advantage
this weekend as they face the Broncos. The Broncos bring a decent
serving of defense to attempt and stop this major offense. They
allow only 92 yards rushing a game & they allow 185 yards
passing a game. The Broncos have had problems keeping teams off
the scoreboard if they bring a well-rounded offense (i.e. Kansas
City, Minnesota, New England). The Colts not only bring a "well-rounded"
offense, they bring a high-powered offensive lineup to make things
very difficult for Denver. Manning to Harrison could be ringing
through the ears of every spectator after this game as the two
can hook up anywhere on the field. Edge James has put forth some
workhorse type of efforts and I would expect the same this weekend.
I just don't think the Broncos are that good! They have a nice
lineup, but the loss of Portis will be huge. The Colts will bring
the house on offense, and they have been on a roll to say the
least. This team can throw up some major points, and on the home
turf it is hard to see how the Broncos will keep up. I'm taking
the Colts, and I think it won't be as close as you might guess.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Edge James, Clinton
Portis (Questionable), Jake Plummer, Shannon Sharpe, Mike Vanderjagt,
Jason Elam
2nd String: Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, Denver Defense, Colt Defense,
Marcus Pollard, Reggie Wayne
Prediction: Broncos 20, Colts 32
Green Bay (8-6) at Oakland
(4-10) Mon 9:00 PM
The Packers are fighting for their lives. They really want to
get Brett Favre and company into the postseason, and now that
they have tied the division leading Minnesota Vikings they can
smell the blood. They need to be careful as this is a dangerous
game. Many times (as Oakland showed last week versus Baltimore)
an awful team, much like the Raiders, will come along and serve
as the playoff buster for several teams. Green Bay needs to win
both of the last two games in order to stay in the picture, and
that starts with beating the Raiders on Monday night in Oakland.
The Raiders have been straight awful thus far, not stopping too
much on defense and not doing too much on offense. They currently
give up 149 yards rushing a game, and this will allow the Packers
to once again lean on their offensive workhorse, RB Ahman Green.
Green has been a stud all year and he should be more than capable
of tearing up this last place rush defense. This looks like the
kind of game Green could win on his own, but like I said, the
Packers need to be careful. On the other hand, the Raiders give
up about 210 yards passing a game. This shows a better than average
defensive unit against the pass, but this is the Packers and Favre
will take his shots. He can make plays, but the true offensive
presence will be the work of Ahman Green. Green is fighting an
uphill battle for 2,000 yards, but he could really help his cause
if he could rack up some gaudy numbers this week. So, in summary,
expect a healthy dose of Ahman Green, followed by a small seasoning
of Ahman Green, then mix in some Favre to Walker for flavor, and
finish it off with a nice side dish of Ahman Green.
I wish I could say nice things about the Oakland offense. I will
say this: they did pull out a nice upset of the Ravens last week.
Other than that, there still isn't much to report. The rushing
attack isn't too damaging: Tyrone Wheatley has been the leader
of a RB-by-committee and although he is very powerful and capable
of nice plays, he is by no means a solid starting RB. Rick Mirer
has filled in nicely at QB, though to say the result and stats
aren't what you would like to see in a trial such as this. I'm
just fighting to find something interesting to write about for
the preview of the Raiders, and I don't see a lot. The Packers
come to town with a not so good defense: 221 yards passing allowed
per game, 105 yards rushing per game. Respectable but not outstanding
numbers. The Packers should be able to find some offensive success
in this game. The Raiders may give Favre some problems throwing
the ball, but the running game of Ahman Green is not something
the Raiders will have a solution for. Green feasts on teams like
Oakland, with weak running threads and undisciplined tacklers
that are unable to bring down the big guys. Neither team has a
great defense, but the Raiders don't have the offense to take
advantage. I don't see how I'm going to put any kind of faith
in Rick Mirer, and as long as he is the QB I'm going to choose
the other side of the line. The numbers are against the Raiders,
they have nothing to play for, and they don't have the talent
to stop the Packers from running and scoring. Take the Packers,
and let's get the race for the playoffs moving!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Javon Walker, Tyrone Wheatley,
Bubba Franks, Ryan Longwell, Sebastian Janikowski
2nd String: Jerry Porter, Donald Driver, Rick Mirer, Jerry Rice,
Tim Brown, Packer Defense, Charlie Garner, Teyo Johnson, Raider
Defense
Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 17
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