Last Week's Projections: (10-6)
62.5%
Season's Projections: (153-86)
64.0%
Just to give you all the 4-1-1, we are going to continue the previews
into the playoffs and all the way through the Super Bowl. I know
a lot of you have wrapped up your fantasy seasons, but there's many
of you out there that (a) have entered a Playoff Fantasy League,
always fun and entertaining, (b) love football and I think would
like to have something to read and inform you about the games, and/or
(c) still haven't taken the opportunity to send me your virus attachments,
your insults, naked pictures of your significant others, and suggestions.
To those of you that pulled out as league champions, congratulations;
to those of you that lost, join the club; to those of you that are
just getting ready for a new postseason league, come on in and grab
a chair. You are all welcome, and thanks for tuning in!
Buffalo (6-9) at New England
(13-2) Sat 1:30 PM
Let's start this last week's previews with a disclaimer: there are
going to be games in this last week that are so unbelievably boring
and mundane that I cannot, despite what will be a strong and maximum
effort on my part (until I get tired of trying), make into the titanic
match of heavyweights that many of us would like them to be. Be
warned that I will try my best to make each and every match up worthy
of your time and consideration, but I am not a miracle worker, and
since I haven't split any oceans or turned my spring water into
some nice Boone's Farm wine recently, I would ask that you give
me a little room for humor. Now, with all of that understood, we
get to start with our first case study as Buffalo takes a short
charter to Boston to play the Patriots. It's is officially safe
to say the Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, having won
11 straight games and beaten several of the league's better teams
along the way (Indy, Tennessee). Basically put, if the Patriots
win they are the #1 seed and they get to enjoy the home field advantage
throughout the playoffs. I realize they could still win it with
a loss, but if you think they are considering it an option you are
sadly mistaken. This team will be going for the throat, and Tom
Brady will be in charge of playing field general. I still argue
that Brady is a top 5 MVP candidate, and of all the QB candidates
you have I would argue Brady is the one guy that has not slipped
down the stretch. In the Pats December games, he's thrown 4 TD's
and 0 INT's and 0 fumbles. He isn't necessarily throwing for big
yards, but he's getting the job done and showing his teammates how
to do it. Brady has been here before, and you better believe he
remembers it well (it wasn't that long ago, and the situation had
to have been much more stressful than this as he was "stealing"
Drew Bledsoe's job at the time!). I am concerned about this game
as Buffalo's pass defense is normally very good, and the Pats have
little to no running game to speak of (I know: Antowain Smith ran
for over 100 yards last week, but don't expect this to become the
norm for Smith, much less a monthly occurrence). However, I would
submit the following numbers, all from the Bills' more recent road
games: Week 15 Billy Volek threw for 295 yards and 2 TD's, Week
13 Kerry Collins threw for 233 yds and 1 TD (Kerry Collins for christ
sake!), Week 8 Trent Green threw for 273 yds and 2 TD's (I left
out Week 9 versus Dallas when Quincy Carter hit for only 116 yards,
but I'd mention that Bledsoe went for 104 that day). This team has
a nice pass defense, but they have not done well on the road and
they have not done well against QB's that are not at the same level
as Tom Brady.
Now we get to the real story in New England: thank god the Sox
are keeping Nomar!!! Just kidding, sort of. The defense is the
real story in Foxboro, as the Patriots have become the most dominating
defensive squad in all of football. They can do it all, and they
do every week, every play, every chance they get. By the way,
I have to ask this: can anyone give me a credible answer as to
why Rodney Harrison was left out of the Pro Bowl? I'd rank Harrison
as one of 2 guys (hint: Dallas) that should not only be in the
Pro Bowl, they should be starting and be up for defensive player
of the year. The Pats are giving up only about 16 points a game
overall, but here is the amazing number: they are giving up only
9 points a game at home! Only the Titans (30) and the Jets (16)
have come into this stadium and scored more than 2 TD's this year
(take that Titan's score out of the equation and the Pats give
up only 6 points to opponents at home on average, simply amazing).
Here's another great stat: the Patriots have a +14 turnover margin.
That is second only to the Chiefs, and the Pats actually make
use of their turnovers gained! The Patriots have scored on a NFL
high 6 turnovers (5 interceptions, 1 fumble), and that is why
they are so dominating and the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
They kick you in the teeth, they wait for you to cry, and then
they kick you in the teeth again. This team can really pour it
on, and the Buffalo offense is coming in as a sitting duck. Buffalo,
especially QB Drew Bledsoe, has a real propensity to turn the
ball over. Bledsoe alone has 11 interceptions (matching his TD
total thus far), and he leads the NFL in sacks taken with 46 (I
know, he's not solely responsible for that number, but the fact
remains that he is a sitting duck, literally and figuratively).
I don't see how the Patriots don't finish off the year in style,
capping a 12 game win streak with a pounding of their rival Buffalo
Bills. I'm going to list Travis Henry as a 1st Stringer out of
respect for the year he has had and his toughness, but I wouldn't
start him in your championship game if I could avoid it. Take
the Pats, and it will be ugly (or entertaining, depending on your
point of view; I'd say entertaining, some would say it's a vomit
bag game).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Patriot Defense, Tom Brady, Travis Henry, David Givens,
Adam Vinatieri
2nd String: Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Daniel Graham, Troy Brown,
Deion Branch, Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk, Josh Reed, Bobby Shaw,
Rian Lindell, Buffalo Defense
Prediction: Bills 9, Pats 21
Seattle (9-6) at San Francisco
(7-8) Sat 5:15 PM
Seattle is on the ropes my friends. Plain and simple: if they
lose, they are out. OK, not exactly true. I understand the NFC
is way screwed up, and the Vikings, Packers, and Seattle are all
putting in applications for that Wild Card slot. I also know this
is such a mess that the only team that can boast that they control
their own destiny is Minnesota (by the way Viking fans, tell me
that makes you comfortable and you'll be lying!). The Green Bay
vs Seattle scenario is so deep it could depend on the outcome
of other games such as Dallas/New Orleans, Cleveland/Cincinnati,
and Pittsburgh/Baltimore. It's like we just took the NFL into
the BCS, asked them, "Hey guys, you've done a stellar job
totally botching the college season, why not take a crack at this!"
When you get through the 3rd tiebreaker for these situations and
you still have a tie, the rules then turn to a "Strength
of Wins" category in which the teams that have been beaten
are brought into consideration. Here's the problem: I have no
patience to sit and figure all this crap out, at least anything
past the division and conference records. Needless to say, Seattle
is need of the most help from other teams and they need a win.
Too bad, as they are coming against a streaking Niners team. The
Niners have won 2 of their last 3 and have done well in all 3
of those games, having scored an average of about 40 points a
game in that span. On the other hand, Seattle has lost 2 of their
last 3 and was lucky to get a win out of Arizona despite many
second half problems last week (I know, they won by 19, but I
really believe having watched most of the game that the Cardinals
had chances to turn that game around, and failed). QB Matt Hasselback
left the game not once but twice with an injury in that game,
and although he is expected to play one has to wonder if he's
100%. The real concern has been the lack of production by those
great WR's in recent weeks. Even in last week's win over Arizona,
the leading receiver was TE Itula Mili, and only Bobby Engram
found the end zone on a catch (I'm not including the 4 yd pass
to RB Maurice Morris, as he's a RB, AND IT WAS 4 YARDS!). Darrell
Jackson has been the go-to guy in this offense, but he was non-existent
last week and has caught only 1 TD in his last 3 games. Shaun
Alexander has been as consistent a runner as you can ask for,
but this offense is not predicated on the run as it is on the
passing game. If Seattle has trouble throwing the rock (and they
will against this tough San Fran passing defense, currently allowing
less than 200 yds passing a game on average), this could be the
end of the Seahawks (and the beginning of another season of talk
about Coach Mike Holmgren).
Bobby Knight was nice enough to stop by and watch the Philly/San
Francisco game with me last week. You know that clip they keep
playing on ESPN, the one with the numerous and continuous bleeps
to edit the constant barrage of cursing? That was actually Knight
at my house, reacting to the McNabb interception in OT (he's a
big McNabb guy). I was very impressed with the Niners' defensive
effort in the game. Granted, they gave up 28 points and, at times,
looked inept. However, they sacked McNabb 5 times (no easy feat)
and Parrish picked up 2 picks. The offense was pretty amazing
too, especially after losing Terrell Owens early to a broken collarbone.
Needless to say, Owens is done for the year and has likely played
his last game in a Niner uniform. You don't have to be Einstein
(as this column proves every week) to figure out how the Niners
did it: guy by the name of Kevan Barlow, RB, big dude with no
hair and strong hits. He was great in taking advantage of the
weak run D last week, and he'll need some big numbers again this
week to keep the offense going. He can do it on all fronts: he
is a great receiver in the short field as well as his running
abilities. Jeff Garcia (may be on his way out of San Fran as well)
will lean heavily on Barlow with Owens out, and they will do it
both rushing and passing. The Seattle D has been in steady decline
since midseason. I remember naming CB Marcus Trufant as a favorite
to win the defensive rookie of the year earlier in the season.
I think you can safely take that back and give the trophy to Dallas'
Terence Newman. Anyway, the Seahawks rank 21st against the pass
(217 yds/game) and 14th against the run (113 yds/game). By the
way, take a look at Seattle's road record: 1 & 6. Here's my
theory: the Seahawks suck on the road, and Niners are much better
at home (6 & 1). Here's another theory: the Seahawks don't
really deserve to be in the playoffs, and they aren't as good
as the Packers or Vikings, and the Niners will turn their defensive
superiority into a win. Last stat to consider: San Fran has a
+9 turnover margin, Seattle is at +1. In other words, Seattle
turns the ball over just a touch less than they cough it up, and
San Fran is good at taking those chances and getting the ball.
I'm taking the Niners to finish the season on a good note at home,
and though the loss of Owens worries me, their defensive efforts
and the running of Barlow gives me enough reason to believe they
can knock Seattle out of the mix.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Kevan Barlow, Shaun Alexander, 49er Defense, Jeff
Garcia, Matt Hasselback, Darrell Jackson, Josh Brown
2nd String: Koren Robinson, Bobby Engram, Itula Mili, Seattle
Defense, Tai Streets, Maurice Morris
Prediction: Hawks 24, Niners 31
Philadelphia (11-4) at
Washington (5-10) Sat 8:30 PM
What a major let down for the Eagles last week! They have put
together such a great year, despite all the McNabb controversy
and struggles and despite all the defensive injuries and the lack
of scoring early in the year, and they look like a cinch to win
the home field advantage with a #1 seed in the playoffs, and they
just let it slip away. San Fran hadn't won an away game all year,
and they go across the country to the blustery cold of Philadelphia,
and they eek out a big upset. The home field advantage will mean
so much in the NFC playoffs: I don't see too many teams (especially
the Rams) coming into the Vet and winning in the winter. Plus,
I have a hard time giving Philly an edge if they have to travel
to St. Louis to play the Rams on the turf in the dome. This game
is a must win, as if Philly wants to have any kind of advantage
at all going into the postseason they need to not only win this
game, but they also need some help from others. If Philly is going
to win, they need to stop the run! Kevan Barlow became the 7th
rusher in 9 weeks to gain at least 100 yards on this defense,
and the average yards per carry in those games is over 5.5 yds/carry.
Those numbers tend to lead to losses, and they have definitely
led to problems for the Eagles. However, the Eagles are "
the exception to the rule," as they have actually gone 9-1
in that span of game, with only the Niners and the Dolphins having
scored more than 20 points. That is pretty amazing in itself.
Not too many teams can produce wins while allowing so much on
the ground. However, as we enter the playoffs, it is not a trend
to bet on every week. Teams like St. Louis and Green Bay can make
a living from big time running games, and they have the weapons
to take advantage. If the Eagles are going to stop the bleeding
and get set for the playoffs, they need to win this game, and
they need to stop the run.
By the way, did I mention the Eagles could still LOSE THE DIVISION???!!!
Dallas is only one game back, and if the Boys pull out a win next
week and the Eagles lay a donut in this match, the Eagles would
then not only lose home field advantage, they would lose the #2
seed and they would drop to the #5 seed, thus having to travel
in every game from here on out (unless they played the #6; technicalities,
all you folks worry about the "truth" so much!). Therefore,
I suppose if we are going to talk about the potential consequences
of the Eagles losing, we should also discuss the ways in which
that could happen this week. Here's the potential ways for the
Skins to win this game, in my eyes: (1) a dark plague overtakes
the Eagles prior to game time, thus making every player either
violently sick or dead, ending the game in forfeit, or (2) if
Timmy Hasselback were to win the Power Ball lottery and decided,
"Ya' know what? I'm a freakin' multi-millionaire and my wife
is super famous! I'm gonna go home and sponge off her for the
rest of my life!", thus forcing Steve Spurrier to actually
strap on the cleats again and take the field as the starting QB
(come to think of it, that would still result in the Philly win
.
never mind), or (3) if the Redskins owner, Dan Snyder, were to
go mad on a big time meth bender, and he fired all the players
and replaced them with super robots that would not only perform
in a superior manner to the human players but would also unleash
a ravage attack of bloody proportions on the Eagles, killing every
person in sight. Other than these 3 possibilities, I don't see
how the Redskins can win. They lost to a rookie QB in Chicago
last week (though I'd like to mention that rookie QB is damn good
and could be a great player very soon in the NFL), they have lost
5 of their last 6 games, they are led by a QB with as much time
in the NFL as that new babe on "The View" Elizabeth
Hasselback, their defense can't keep anyone off the scoreboard,
they have no running game at all, and their offensive line is
probably the worst in football. The Eagles should kill this team.
Philly's road record: 6 & 1. Washington's home record: 3 &
4. By the way, the Eagles also have superior coaching, with better
fashion sense and better facial hair. I rest my case: take Philly.
LATE NEWS: Rock Cartwright will start at RB for the Skins.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, David Akers, Philly
Defense, John Hall
2nd String: Correll Buckhalter, Laveranues Coles, Duce Staley,
Rock Cartwright, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, LJ Smith, Rod Gardner,
Chad Lewis, Tim Hasselback, Darnerien McCants, Redskin Defense
Prediction: Eagles 30, Skins 17
Tampa Bay (7-8) at Tennessee
(11-5) 1:00 PM
I have to say this: I saw Tony "I'll take 2 triple cheeseburgers,
and take the bun off the 2nd one and shove the rest of it in the
middle of the 1st" Siragusa doing some "sideline reporting"
this weekend (I know it was the Dallas game, but I can't hold
it in any longer). If that guy is a "reporter," then
I just became Walter freakin' Cronkite. How can I not get a job
with a network if that fat slob can get a paycheck for doing,
essentially, less than nothing? Ok, I feel better
what did
I do with that cheeseburger? Anyway, the Bucs are looking to end
this sorry season and get it off their minds. Last week's loss
to Atlanta is another dagger in the defending champion, and what
a horrible showing it was in the first half! Vick was working
them like a sweatshop, but give the Bucs some credit for hanging
in the game, not quitting, and almost coming from behind for the
win. Those of you who tuned out lost out on some great football
by Brad Johnson in that 2nd half. That said, they get to finish
the year in Tennessee, a game that could have some major playoff
implications (we will get back to this). I'll say this for the
Bucs: they have an excellent coach in Jon Gruden, and he won't
let this team quit (nor will Derrick Brooks). Tampa is going to
try their best to give the Titans a tough go, and they definitely
are capable. They had better bring their A game, because that
may not even be enough to win (as the Texans showed last week).
Here are the major concerns for this game, and for both teams.
The obvious question for the Titans will be the healthy of Steve
McNair. If this game was not so important, you could count on
McNair resting and getting ready for the playoffs. However, as
we saw last week, when all we heard for the entire week was how
bad McNair's health was and how the team was scrambling to get
a Neil O'Donnell into camp so they would have a QB besides rookie
Jason Gesser out of Washington State, all this rumbling just to
have McNair not only start but also lead his team to a late come-from-behind
victory over the Texans. That game, by the way, may have just
solidified McNair as the MVP over Peyton Manning. That said, the
injuries McNair is suffering through are a major concern. Also,
the lack of passing defense in recent weeks for the Titans is
a major concern. Tampa is not a great running team, but Keenan
McCardell can hurt you with his hands & feet in a very short
time. Look at the Titans' last 4 games as proof: 242 yds by David
Carr last week, 168 yds and 2 TD's to Bledsoe the week before,
228 yards by Peyton Manning in Week 14, and 231 yds and 2 TD's
for Chad Pennington in Week 13. The Titans had better get their
passing D up to par if they hope to compete with any of the AFC
playoff teams at all. On Tampa's side of the ball, the inability
to stop the run has become a glaring vulnerable spot for this
defense. Against Atlanta TJ Duckett (a big power runner who rarely
sees more than about 60 yards a game) ran for 93 yds; against
Jacksonville the Bucs let Fred Taylor gather 116 yards; against
the Packers Ahman Green ran for 109 yds. This team has the ability
to stop guys from rushing: they held both Deuce McAllister and
Domanick Davis to respectable games (69 yds and 56 yds respectively).
The inconsistency is the problem, but this week the Titans do
not pose much of a threat to rush for big yards as they don't
possess one RB that has gone over the 1,000 yard mark yet (by
the way, regular readers will know that I've wanted to see rookie
RB Chris Brown in this offense for some time, and last week he
made his case with 69 yards on only 10 carries). Essentially,
the Titans can win the division, they could lose the division
and be the #5 seed, or they could lose it all and drop to the
bottom wild card spot (if they lose and Denver wins, the Broncos
have a better conference record). Bottom line: Tennessee is 6
& 1 at home, and as long as McNair can play I don't see any
reason why they won't win. The Bucs have been too inconsistent,
both on offense and defense, this year to put any faith in them.
The Titans really need this win: they can still win the division
(if they win and Indy takes a loss), they don't want to travel
any more than necessary in the postseason, and the ability of
McNair to pull this team through is too much to ignore.
LATE NEWS: In the interest of time, the Titans have listed all
members and coaches for their team as "Questionable."
Every damn guy below is questionable, and I'm not labeling them
all as it will lengthen the preview by 1 whole page.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Keenan McCardell, Justin
McCareins, Titan Defense, Gary Anderson, Martin Gramatica
2nd String: Brad Johnson, Charles Lee, Buc Defense, Eddie George,
Chris Brown, Tyrone Calico, Michael Pittman, Thomas Jones, Todd
Yoder
Prediction: Bucs 17, Titans 24
Chicago (7-8) at Kansas
City (12-3) 1:00 PM
I just want to say one thing, in a serious tone: please remember
the US Troops this holiday season. They are off in the middle
of hell, fighting for our rights to travel, our rights to celebrate,
our rights to yell at the refs, and our rights to blow off work
on holidays such as these. They deserve our prayers and utmost
respect this holiday season.
Let's dive into the game of the week! I'm serious, this game is
beyond exciting! The Bears come into the game with an undefeated
QB! I'VE BEEN YELLING THIS TO ANYONE THAT WOULD LISTEN, AND TONS
OF YOU THAT DIDN'T WANT TO! WHY THE HELL WASN'T REX GROSSMAN IN
WEEKS AGO? THIS KID IS THE FUTURE, AND HE'S GOOD, AND HE'S A SMALL
GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THE ANAL CAVITY OF A SEASON THE BEARS ARE HAVING!!!
Ok, much better, in with the sunshine
. out with the rain
clouds
.. pop this Paxil here, and we're back. Grossman has
been amazing, and if you haven't taken the opportunity to watch
him, I suggest you do so. He's a great prospect, and I can say
that I've watched every single snap and, with a completely objective
view, this kid has played more like a seasoned veteran than a
rookie without a single NFL snap under his belt. Just look at
the numbers: 6.5 yds/attempt, 2 TD's, and only 1 INT thus far
(not his fault by the way, tipped ball). He lit up a formidable
Washington defense (Champ Bailey, Fred Smoot, Pro Bowl material)
for 259 yards last week. Those of you that have seen this Kansas
City defense in recent weeks should realize: Rex Grossman could
have a great opportunity to showcase and end the year with a major
positive. How do you not start this kid next year if he wins this
game?! The Chiefs are giving up 214 pass yds a game on average,
and the key stat is the rushing defense: currently ranked DEAD
LAST in the NFL, 151 yds/game. Anthony Thomas should be a major
force in this game, and if he can get some of the pressure off
of Grossman and open up some single coverage on the receivers,
the Chiefs better look out.
The key for the Chiefs to succeed is the same as it always has
been: hand the ball off to Priest Holmes! It's seems they had
become enamored with passing the ball, as Trent Green has had
a great year and Tony Gonzalez is playing like his old self. All
you have to do is look at the game logs from recent weeks to see
the trend: 15 carries versus Buffalo, 16 carries versus Cincy,
12 carries versus Denver, 18 carries versus Minnesota. The guy
is a major factor and has been for a couple of years now. He's
buttered the bread in KC for more than long enough. Give him his
respect and props, and give him the ball. The Bears are allowing
about 120 yds rushing a game. Priest could easily turn that into
150 "Priest" yards and at least 2 TD's. The last thing
Chicago wants in this game is a scoring sprint. The Chicago D
has been fairly decent this year, but they have been hampered
by injuries and their inability to stop the big play has really
hurt them. KC is all about the big play, and the big play guys
are Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. That said, the Chiefs do
have to be worried about their recent defensive woes. In order,
this defense has allowed the following point totals: 24 to Cincy,
24 to Oakland (a horrible Oakland team, at best), 24 to San Diego
(see the note on Oakland), 45 to Denver, 17 to Detroit (not bad,
but should have been lower), and 45 to Minnesota. If the Bears
can jump on this team early, if the Bears can find some way to
make the Chiefs throw the ball more often than handing it to Priest,
and if the Bears can take advantage on offense, they could win.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT GAME! Let's face it: KC has little
to lose. They are pretty much locked into the #2 seed in the AFC:
the only way they move is with a win and a New England loss. I
should also mention this: KC is 7 & 0 at home. As much as
I want to pick the Bears, as much as I want the Bear to win, I
can't do it. KC needs this win, and Priest Holmes will be way
too much for this team to handle. However, I do believe that Anthony
Thomas and Rex Grossman will keep it close and fun to watch. I'm
Tivo'ing this one, and I'm getting on the Rex bandwagon now (by
the way, I've been on since college, but just to make sure it's
in print!).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Priest Holmes, Anthony Thomas, Trent Green, Rex Grossman,
Tony Gonzalez, Paul Edinger, Morten Andersen
2nd String: Eddie Kennison, Marty Booker, Justin Gage (Questionable),
Johnnie Morton, Desmond Clark, Chicago Defense, KC Defense
Prediction: Bears 21, Chiefs 32
NY Jets (6-9) at Miami
(9-6) 1:00 PM
If you folks don't mind, my buddy Joe Namath just stopped by and
wanted me to help him with his apology. I tried to tell him, "Joe,
you're freakin' Joe Namath! Suzy Kolber is cute, but she's no
Jennifer Connelly. She should be flattered." He won't listen,
so give me a minute and I'll be right back
.. "Yaaaz
know Bryhn, I'z don'ts care if your columns has struggled, you'vz
been good before and you'll beez good again really soonnz
"
Damn it, I'm sorry guys. You know, I'm sure Joe is a great kisser
when he's drunk, but he can't type for crap. And am I wrong?!
Shouldn't Suzy be flattered?! HE'S JOE FREAKIN' NAMATH! HE'S NAILED
ENOUGH STEWARDESSES TO EMPLOY 3 MAJOR AIRLINES! Where were we?
Oh yeah, the game. This game means nothing. The AFC is not entirely
set, but it's not like the NFC where teams can affect the "Strength
of Wins" for anybody (I say that, but to be honest I have
no clue if that is a true statement). Miami is toast. As predicted
by me (note: patting myself on the back), Miami sealed their own
fate (though I predicted a loss versus Buffalo, and I was wrong
in a major way there). I am not now and never will be sold on
Jay Fiedler. He's a competent QB, no more, no less. He's not a
playoff guy, he's not a Super Bowl guy (and don't give me Trent
Dilfer!), he's not going to lead this team to the Big Dance. In
fact, let me qualify that statement: it's probably not so much
Fiedler as it is Dave Wannstedt. The guy cannot win when it really
matters. He's a great coordinator. He's just like another old
Miami coach, Norv Turner. Great coaches they are not; good coordinators
they are. Wannstedt needs to find a nice job as such. You'd also
have to say Ricky Williams has had a disappointing year. He was
quoted as saying, "I'm trying some changes in my style, to
be more of a finesse runner." Why? He's not. He's a power
runner and always will be: he's bigger than an ox, he's strong,
he's got huge shoulders, and he does his best damage between the
tackles. This offense has lost their identity. Ricky needs to
get back to his game, the team needs someone to open up the passing
more and use Chris Chambers as the major weapon he can be, and
I'd like to see a lot more of Randy McMichaels as well. Until
this happens, I'm not suggesting Miami as a consistent winner.
The Jets are somewhat similar to Miami in that they never really
found their offensive groove. The loss of Chad Pennington cannot
be overstated. Such a disappointing year for the Jets can only
be attributed to a combination of problems. The Jets' rush D is
horrible and the entire world know it (121 yds by Antowain Smith
last week?). This will provide a great opportunity for Ricky Williams
to end the year on a positive and get back to his money style.
The Jets do have a nice passing offense, lead by Pennington and
Santana Moss. With Penny behind center, Moss can be one of the
league's best wideouts. However, he will struggle as Chad struggles
(see last week's game vs the Pats). Miami has a decent pass D,
allowing about 210 yards a game. Chad better be careful. He is
normally a solid passer, but he threw 5 picks last week versus
the Pat, and Miami has a similar knack for interceptions (22 thus
far, only 5 less than New England). I was very impressed with
the effort the Miami D put up last week, and they would love to
finish the year with a similar effort versus Pennington. The Jets
will try to run, they will try to pass, but the Fins may have
too many weapons out there to make this a viable attack. The Jets
made a great move to get up in the draft last year and get Dewayne
Robertson (quietly having a fairly decent rookie year, though
I would agree they missed out on Terence Newman). I expect they
may try to do the same this year, and they won't have to move
up as far to do so. I don't know whom to pick with 100% certainty.
I worry about both offenses, and even though the game will be
in played in the warm Miami weather I feel the under may be a
good play in this one. I have to give the edge to the Miami D.
Jason Taylor is a warrior, and he'll be head hunting for Pennington
all day long. With Buckley, Madison, and Surtain in the backfield,
I fear the Jets could be hard pressed to find open receivers,
and if they can't pass they can't win. Take the Fins, and fans
of these teams can start thinking about the draft now.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Fin Defense, Ricky Williams, Chris Chambers, Randy
McMichael, Anthony Becht, Doug Brien
2nd String: Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Curtis Martin, Jet
Defense, Jay Fiedler, Curtis Conway, LaMont Jordan, James McKnight,
Olindo Mare
Prediction: Jets 13, Fins 20
Indianapolis (11-4) at
Houston (5-10) 1:00 PM
This is a huge game. Indy really put themselves in a rough position
with the loss to Denver last week. For starters, they are now
in a position to lose their division to Tennessee. Second, there
is a very real possibility this Colts team will get Denver, at
home once again, in the first round of the playoffs. Do you think
they want that? I don't! Their defense was awful. I want to say
this: I love it. I love the fact this is happening, as it has
shown that the NFL is a superior professional sports product.
Why? It shows that the regular season means so much. Indy would
love to have the losses to Carolina and Jacksonville back. Both
games were very close games and both games were decided, essentially,
by the poor Indy defense. This game with Houston is now a must
win, as every game should be in the NFL. The good thing the Colts
can look at is the following facts: the Texans allow 233 yds/passing
a game, as well as 144 yds/rushing a game. The Texans are not
defensively capable of containing any facet of this Colts' offense.
I've said it before, but it bears repeating: the focal point of
this offense is Edge James. Peyton Manning is awesome, but as
Denver showed last week he is not perfect. Edge ran well in that
game, but as the Colts fell behind they lost the ability to run
the ball. The rushing game allows teams to control pace, to control
the clock, and to control the ball. Edge is a workhorse, and the
Colts need to get him going on all cylinders as they head into
the playoffs. If they face Denver again, they need to get James
the ball much more than 10 times.
I want to start the Houston preview by giving some respect to
rookie RB Domanick Davis, who would win the Rookie of the Year
if not for Arizona's WR Anquan Boldin. Davis didn't become the
feature back until Week 7, and since then he was able to gather
932 yards and 6 TD's. Those numbers become even more amazing when
you consider the QB carousel they have had in Houston this year.
Put it in perspective: in his time, Davis has accounted for roughly
46% of Houston's offense when he's started. He's a stud. He will
be looking to end the year on a high note: these two teams met
in Week 8 and Davis racked up 109 yards with 2 TD's in that game.
He could help the Texans finish what has been a pretty good year
(I'd say 5 & 10 for this team, all things considered, is pretty
good) with a competitive effort versus this top notch Indy team.
They put up a great game versus the Titans last week, and if McNair
wasn't so good they probably would have pulled off a huge upset.
Look at the schedule, and you'll see this team had 4 losses by
a TD or less. It's just a matter of time before this club can
start turning those games into wins, and that makes all the difference
between making the playoffs and making tee times. There are two
other facts you may note if you look at the schedule: despite
the strong effort by Davis the Texans lost by 9 in the first match
between these two teams, and you'll also notice the Colts are
6 & 1 on the road this year. The Texans are hampered by injuries,
most notably a QB that is not 100%. They won't fair as well this
time versus Indy. Indy has all the need to motivate them to a
big win. Houston has the lack of defense to allow a big loss.
The Texans may put up a fight, but chances are the Colts will
win this game, and they are likely to win big.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Edge James, Domanick
Davis, Mike Vanderjagt, Colt Defense, Marcus Pollard, Reggie Wayne
2nd String: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Jabar Gaffney, Billy Miller,
Kris Brown, Texan Defense
Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 20
Dallas (10-5) at New Orleans
(7-8) 1:00 PM
It's safe to say that Dallas will come into the playoffs as one
of the most feared Wild Cards. In fact, they could come into the
playoffs with a first round bye! The Boys are only one game behind
the Eagles, and a win combined with an Eagle loss will give the
Boys the NFC East title. Last week, I ripped Michael Irvin, and
though I'm not a big fan, I'm willing to give credit where it
is due. I had figured the Boys were good for about 5, maybe 6,
wins this year. Irvin predicted 9 wins at the start of the season,
and went as far as to say they could make the playoffs. Granted,
it's his old team, but I thought he was crazy then and now I feel
I should give him some credit. As long as we are covering some
off-subject stuff, I'd like to mention Dat Nguyen. In the beginning
of these previews, I mentioned that I felt Rodney Harrison and
"one other player" were the most notable Pro Bowl snubs
this year. Nguyen is the other player I noticed immediately as
missing for no apparent reason. He's money, he's one of the best
tacklers you'll see in the NFL, and he goes largely unnoticed
for his efforts and performance. He is the front line leader for
the strong defensive unit in Dallas. This defense is what makes
Dallas such a tempting playoff spoiler pick. The saying goes,
"defense wins championships," and it's been proven true
many times. Dallas has one of, possibly the, best defense in football
(I'd give that nod to the Patriots). Parcells is not one for let
downs, and you better believe he wants his team going into the
playoffs with some momentum. After beating up the Giants last
week, the Saints will provide a much better test this week. One
notable player missing will be Joe Horn. Apparently he pulled
hamstring trying to lay down and pat himself on the back every
10 minutes. Seriously, he's out and that gives the Boys a big
break. Without Horn, the Saints will be missing their only solid
weapon in the passing game. Plus, this will be tough game from
the standpoint that the Boys are so tough on defense, and they
will be pumped to come in and shut this team down as a statement
to their round one opponent. Deuce McAllister has shown he can
run on almost any team, and he may find some success against the
Boys, but as we have seen so many times this year it is unlikely
that Deuce will be able to do this alone.
I know most of the Saints' fans out there would love to find
John Carney, string him up by his ankles, and blow some 3 Iron
shots off his noggin. Let me suggest one thing before you do:
remember the OT loss to Carolina? Your team had the ball down
by their own end zone, within John Carney range, and Julius Peppers
came through the line a knocked the ball loose from Deuce McAllister's
hands. REMEMBER? I might suggest that loss was just as devastating
as last week's, and I would suggest that none of you would go
after Deuce. So why kill the kicker? Granted, kicking is boring,
and the game might survive nicely without any kicking what so
ever, but don't blame Carney. If I were a Saints fan, I'd be pointing
the finger at the defensive coordinator. I will give you the passing
defense, as it has been fairly solid overall (ranked 9th overall).
However, I will submit the rushing numbers versus New Orleans
as my reasoning: ranked 28th giving up 144 yds/game. I would also
note the points allowed, as 21 points on average by opponents
is not an easy number to overcome every week. I might also suggest
that though the passing D is solid overall, they have struggled
to stop the big play and have been burned in key situations too
often. The truth is this: you look at the schedule for New Orleans,
and you take a list of the teams they have lost against. Carolina
(twice), Seattle, Tennessee, Indy, Philly, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville
(give J'ville an asterisk; they may not have a great record but
they improved a ton as the season wore on). All of those teams
are solid (except maybe Tampa, and it's hard to consider games
against division rivals as equal when comparing an overall schedule).
The Saints aren't' a bad team, but they need to stop the run and
they need to shore up late in games. This week, they will be tested
by an average Dallas offense. It seems the Boys are pretty streaky
on offense. Sometimes Quincy Carter looks great, but when he is
pressured and on the move, and often when the score is close,
he will turn the ball over and kill his team. Many of you, I'm
sure, have noticed the recent performances of RB Troy Hambrick.
Calling him "streaky" is like calling P.Diddy "over
the top": just a little bit of an understatement. If I were
Parcells, Hambrick would be the first guy replaced. This guy,
after running for 189 on a bad Washington team, gloated and pointed
his finger squarely at the offensive line, stating, "I'm
not pointing fingers, but if I got blocking like that every week
I'd be like this every week." Ummmm
. one, you are pointing
your finger (granted, it's a nice change from having that finger
planted deeply in his own..), and two, that is totally false.
The guy thinks more of himself than Meshawn, Irvin, and Moss combined,
yet he has no basis for such an ego. He'll get his chance to run
against a weak defense this week, and I can almost guarantee he
does little to nothing. Carter and the receivers make this team
go, with some help from Richie Andersen and Aveion Cason from
time to time. I really like Andersen's game: he can blow up and
is a great receiver, though rarely does he seem to reach his full
potential. The key to this game will be turnovers and motivation.
I don't see the Saints putting up the numbers they need to win
this game. Dallas is just too good on defense. Without Horn, the
passing game will struggle. The Boys can key on Deuce, use Roy
Williams and Terence Newman to blitz and patrol the backfield,
and Dallas should pick up a much-needed win. The Boys are still
in the hunt for the division lead, and although it is unlikely
they will receive the help they need, a win can provide the momentum
and confidence this team needs to make some noise in the playoffs.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Dallas Defense, Deuce McAllister (Questionable), Quincy
Carter, Billy Cundiff, Boo Williams
2nd String: Aaron Brooks, Terry Glenn, Troy Hambrick, Joey Galloway,
Antonio Bryant, Richie Anderson, Jason Witten, Jerome Pathon,
John Carney, Saint Defense
Prediction: Boys 21, Saints 13
Jacksonville (5-10) at
Atlanta (4-11) 1:00 PM
If Fred Taylor isn't the most under appreciated players in the
NFL, then he's definitely on the short list. He's gone virtual
uninjured for two seasons now, but he's still plagued with the
"As long as he's healthy" tag. The guy is one of the
best RB's in the game, and if you are in a fantasy league next
year with knowledgeable folks, he should be one of the first round
picks (in my humble opinion, in a 10 team league, at least 8 of
the first round picks should be RB's). Let's take a look at his
numbers, just to prove my point: 1451 yards (on only 21.5 attempts
a game), 4.5 yds/carry, 6 TD's (it would be nice if the Jags had
gotten him in the red zone more often), 10 runs of 20+ yards.
Pretty nice season for a guy on a team with 5 wins and a rookie
QB at the helm. The Jags are starting to put things together offensively,
and Byron Leftwich is showing why he was so highly touted out
of college. Jimmy Smith deserves some accolades too: it would
have been nice if he could have stayed clean and played every
game, but in his time he's been great. This team is essentially
one or two solid offensive linemen and one good receiver away
from being a much better team. This week they get to try and finish
the year on a good note against a struggling Atlanta defense.
After Week 14, the Falcons' D had me believing they might have
turned a page, having allowed only 14 pts to Carolina in a win.
I expected Indy to put up big numbers the next week, but this
team totally collapsed versus Brad Johnson in the second half
last week, allowing BJ to throw for 3 TD's in the 4th quarter
and almost blowing another game. Taylor is likely to tear this
team up, as the Dirty Birds are giving up 143 rush yards a game,
not to mention the 20 rushing TD's they have allowed. Leftwich
could go big too: the Birds give up 243 pass yards a game (last
in the NFL), and have given up 27 passing TD's thus far (2nd worst
number in the league).
So, do you think the Birds were happy to get Vick back? 2 wins
in their last 3 games would suggest the obvious is true. The kid
is averaging 6.8 yards a run, and though he has only 1 rushing
TD thus far, it is safe to say that Vick has and will remain the
speed rushing threat of the team. The entire team has improved
since his return. Peerless Price has become a factor once again;
TJ Duckett has found room to move and is running well; Brian Finneran
is actually showing up in box scores again; Alge Crumpler may
not seem as dominant as he was during the early season, but he's
still a great TE and a weapon to be guarded. This team will have
a great fight this week as they come against what may has to be
one of the NFL's most improved defensive units in Jacksonville.
The Jags are playing great defensive football, and the hiring
of Coach Jack Del Rio is starting to take noticeable effect as
you watch this defensive squad. Del Rio is an amazing defensive
coordinator, and he's got this unit playing well as a team while
taking advantage of individual talents. I am not shy in stating
my love of defensive players, and I think John Henderson is one
of the league's best young talents that goes largely unnoticed.
They kid is straight up solid. Along with studs like Hugh Douglas
and Marcus Stroud, this team is gaining a reputation for smacking
QB's in the mouth. They completely shut down Houston 3 weeks ago
(granted, Carr and Davis were out, but a shutout is a shutout
no matter is you are playing the Texans or playing St. Mary's
Holy Episcopal), they played well against a great Patriot offensive
line (forcing one fumble and sacking Brady twice amidst a good
amount of QB pressure), and last week they held Deuce McAllister
to only 50 yards rushing (granted, they were beat by the arm of
Brooks more than you would like). They play well as a unit, without
one outstanding star but many great players performing as one.
They are holding opponents to only 83 yards rushing a game, and
they will give Vick all he can handle. They have allowed only
4 rushes over 20 yards this year, and this could be a major factor
in this game. I don't want to discount Vick and what he is capable
of doing, but I feel this Jags' defense could perform very well
against him. I think the fans of the Jags have something very
special and positive to look forward to next year. Just you watch:
every magazine will have a guy picking Jacksonville as their "big
sleeper" next year. I'm taking the Jags in this one. Finishing
the year with a win over a quality opponent like Atlanta is only
fitting for this team on the rise. Look for Fred Taylor to finish
the year with yet another big game, and when coupled with the
arm of Leftwich, the hands of Smith, and the horrible coverage
of the Falcons, the Jags should pull out a win in a game that
is much more interesting than it should be at this time of year.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Fred Taylor, Mike Vick, Jag Defense, Byron Leftwich,
Jimmy Smith, Jay Feeley, Seth Marler
2nd String: LaBrandon Toefield, Kevin Johnson, Kyle Brady, TJ
Duckett, Peerless Price, Brian Finneran, Alge Crumpler, Atlanta
Defense
Prediction: Jags 23, Dirty Birds 17
Cleveland (4-11) at Cincinnati
(8-7) 1:00 PM
I'm going to play the French card and officially surrender to
all of the Cleveland fans. You know who you are! You keep emailing
me about your hatred for Butch Davis, and you have turned on me
as I supported the guy several weeks ago. GIVE ME A BREAK! I apologize,
and over the last few weeks it has become readily apparent how
wrong I was in my assessment of his performance thus far. This
team is awful. 5 straight losses, only 1 win in their last 9,
I'd have to say that calling this team awful is an insult to the
word awful. All I heard last week was this team was going to send
the dogs after Jamal Lewis, they were not going to be embarrassed
again, and they would shut him down. 200 yards later, I guess
they must have been talking about some other Jamal Lewis, maybe
that guy down on the corner downing his 40 with a Ravens' jersey
on and talkin' trash to every guy in a Couch jersey that walks
by. 35 to doughnut, man. Just a horrible day for all the Browns'
fans, maybe the worst since the team left town. If you can take
any positive away from this game, it was the performance of rookie
RB Lee Suggs. The kid played well and showed he is worthy of further
evaluation, as he racked up 68 yards on 20 carries. That said,
I suppose you could have done without the 2 fumbles by Suggs,
and as long as we are on fumbles, you could have done without
Couch's 2 fumbles as well. Here's a question: how does a team
with only 90 yards passing win a game 35 to 0? Seriously, 90 yards
passing? You can get more passing done in rush hour. The turnovers
are just game killers. This week they may fair better against
the Bengals. The Bengals don't have a great defense, at least
not yet. This Cincy D gave up 344 yards passing two games ago
to Jeff Garcia, and last week Bulger went for 229 last week. Now,
here's another question, Brown fans: do you think you have a QB
in the same league as Garcia and Bulger, or a WR in the same class
as Terrell Owens or Torry Holt? Here's the answer: hell no. I'm
also going out on the limb and stating that Suggs is not the type
of runner, like Marshall Faulk or Kevan Barlow, that can rack
up 100 yards on this defense either. Sorry Cleveland, but it's
starting to look like a bad ending to a bad year.
Cincy needs a win. They need a win like Darryl Strawberry needs
a life. This team is still in contention for the division title,
and with 7 losses that is amazing. They need some help, and Baltimore
is not guaranteed to win on Sunday night. Cincy owns the tiebreaker
over Baltimore (again, I believe its that "Strength of Wins"
thing again), and a division title would earn Coach Marvin Lewis
the heading of "God" in Cincy. He is a fabulous coach,
and he's likely to get some well-deserved Coach of the Year votes.
It amazing to say this: in Cincy, not making the playoffs would
be a disappointment. To come this far and just miss would be heartbreaking,
but it is also a great sign of things to come in Cincy. Chad Johnson
is a keeper. I don't see too many receivers that work half as
hard as this kid at improving their game and putting it all on
the field. He gives this team some swagger, some heart, and some
mouth. Hey, he's a receiver, it's what they do. Rudi Johnson is
one good game away from the Bengals giving Corey Dillon his walking
papers (he may have it wrapped already, but if he can run this
weekend I think the management in Cincy will be sold). This team
can be a force offensively. I will say the loss of Peter Warrick
is troublesome. Warrick went under the scope late last week and
was unable to play last week. Warrick helps CJ and CJ helps Warrick:
both guys can take it to the house, and they give Kitna a great
spread across the backfield to target. Kitna and Johnson &
Johnson will take aim on a struggling Cleveland defense this weekend.
In just 4 weeks, the Browns have gone from a team that, "doesn't
give up a lot of scoring," to a team that has done nothing
but. In their last 4 losses, the Browns have given up an average
of 30 points a game. They are getting killed, and it's both the
run and the pass. Clinton Portis lit 'em up, Marc Bulger torched
'em, Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander beat 'em down, and Jamal
Lewis rolled 'em up like a spliff. They can't keep guys off the
board, and they can't stop any kind of offense that is coming
at them. This is a huge game for Cincy, probably the biggest since
Ickey was doing the Shuffle in the end zone. Take the Bengals,
and if they get a Baltimore loss to help them out, grab the gas
mask and head downtown Cincy fans!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Chad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, Cincy Defense
2nd String: Kelley Washington, Kelly Holcomb, Lee Suggs, Jamel
White, Tim Couch, Dennis Northcutt, Andre Davis, Quincy Morgan,
Matt Schobel, Brandon Bennett, Cleveland Defense, Shayne Graham
Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 31
St. Louis (12-3) at Detroit
(4-11) 1:00 PM
The Rams have officially reached the peak of the NFC, having taken
the #1 seed from Philly last week. Now they hold their destiny
in their own hands: win in Detroit, and you've got the home field
advantage throughout the playoffs. This is beyond huge for this
team. The Rams are built to play on turf: dropping that secret
is as surprising, and more exciting, than when Rosie O'Donnell
publicly acknowledged she is gay. SHOCKING! It's hard to say,
"yeah, the Lions could put up a fight in this one."
I would love to sit here and write up some great stats and some
observations that could lead one to believe the Lions stand a
chance. I would also like the ability to convince all of you that
if my wife every wised up and left me that I could bounce back
and rope Beyonce Knowles away from Jigga Man Jay-Z. In both cases,
they are not only total falsehoods, they are so impossible to
support, it's basically a lost cause, much like the Lions. The
Lions will improve, but it will take LOTS of time. This is a game
that is suppose to be very important, a game packed with playoff
punch as the Rams look to grab the big playoff advantage. It's
just hard to find a way to formulate an argument for the Lions!
They won't stop Holt for sure. They may stop Faulk, at about 110
yards. They won't get to Bulger very often. Their defense is nothing
short of horrible: 116 yds rushing allowed a game, 228 yds passing
allowed a game, and 24 points allowed on average a game. So, if
we punch those "stats" into my NFL converter, and convert
from "average" to "Rams," and make sure we
hit the "turf" factor, and we get the following: 138
yards rushing, 320 yards passing, 38 points allowed. Looking good
for the Rams!
Hey! I just found, after plenty of searching and manipulation,
some things to point out about the Rams in support of Detroit!
The Rams have allowed an average of about 150 yards rushing per
game in their last 8 matches. A total of 4 RB's have gained over
100 yards this year, and that is more than the combined totals
versus the 3 previous Rams' playoff teams ('99, '00, '01). This
team is coming up weak against the run! Well, I guess I should
add some notes to these comments. First, in those 8 games, the
Rams are 7 & 1. Second, we should note the Lions have absolutely
no RB capable of putting up similar numbers. Artose Pinner has
shown very little in his time on the field. Shawn Bryson? No.
Add the Lions to the list of teams looking for a RB. It's all
about Joey Harrington and the rocket arm to nobody in Detroit.
Az-Zir Hakim has shown some signs of life, but it's not been anything
worthy of note. Here's a good laugh: go check out the team stats
on the Lions. Leading receiver: TE Mikhael Ricks with 402 yards.
There is not one player with more than 3 TD's on the entire team.
Rookie stud WR Charles Rogers hasn't played in a game since October
5, and he's tied for the team lead in TD's and he's only 159 yards
behind Ricks for the team's leading receiver! That's one good
game for Rogers! Man did they take a hit in losing him! Maybe
Rogers could have turned 3 or 4 of those close losses into wins.
We'd be talking about the Lions as a team to watch next year.
Regardless, they have no shot this weekend. The Rams take the
#1 seed, and they may beat 'em up early so they can rest Bulger,
Faulk, and Holt in the 2nd half. By the way, QB Mike McMahon is
getting the start for the Lions in order to evaluate his play
as he becomes a restricted free agent after this year.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Torry Holt, Marc Bulger, Marshall Faulk, Rams Defense,
Isaac Bruce (Questionable), Jeff Wilkens, Jason Hanson
2nd String: Az-Zir Hakim, Dane Looker, Mikhael Ricks, Brandon
Maneamula, Shawn Bryson, Artose Pinner, Mike McMahon, Bill Schroeder,
Detroit Defense
Prediction: Rams 38, Lions 17
Carolina (10-5) at NY
Giants (4-11) 4:05 PM
Well, it's the last week, and against my own conscience and words
from last week, I'm going to preview the Giants game. Maybe I
should reconsider
I guess in the interest
of fairness and in the spirit of Christmas we should continue.
However, I am going to go over them first. I hear the most suicides
in this world occur around Christmas, and I don't want to be held
responsible for the death of any Giants' fans, or myself for that
matter. As predicted, they continued to struggle last week, getting
handed their 7th loss in a row by the Cowboys. This week they
face a similar challenge in the Panthers: a team with a good defense
(actually, I suppose you could question that statement) and an
offense that is good but not feared. I will say this: I am impressed
with the way lame duck coach Jim Fassel is handling this. I ripped
on Dan Reeves for quitting, and Fassel is the exact opposite.
He may not get too much out of his guys this week, it may get
ugly, but at least he's fulfilling his obligation to his players,
to his employer, and to himself. He will have no problems getting
another job, and he'll find success in the NFL in the future.
This team is decimated with injuries and what can only be described
as indifference. There are players on this team, but their efforts
as individuals have not been enough to overcome the interceptions,
the fumbles, and mistakes. This team is in need, as John Madden
said, of "reconstructive surgery." There are some nice
parts (Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Ike Hilliard, Michael Strahan,
Michael Barrow, Dhani Jones, Kenny Holmes, William Joseph), but
the whole is not working.
Carolina is the one team coming into the playoffs that seems
ripe for a first round upset. Take a look at their last three
games. They've lost to Atlanta by 6, beaten Arizona by 3, and
beaten Detroit by 6. That is three close games with three bad
teams. This team seems to be limping into the postseason. The
offense is clearly struggling to score points. Jake Delhomme is
a solid QB, but this is his first year as a starter and he's shown
he still has some things to learn. Stephen Davis has taken such
a beating all year long that he's taking the last two games off
just to get rested and healthy for the playoffs. RB is the one
position in which the Panthers have good depth. De Shaun Foster
is a great backup and switch up back: Davis' job was going to
be Fosters before he blew out his leg last year. He's got tons
of potential and he will give the Panthers all the running they
need to beat this Giants team. On offense the Panthers don't bring
any surprises. You know Davis and Foster will run, and you know
Delhomme is looking for Steve Smith as often as possible. Smith
is on the verge of blowing up in the NFL. He's possesses great
skills and talent. He should find some open space in the weak
Giant backfield. This game will essentially be a litmus test for
the Panthers. They are pretty much locked into the #3 or #4 seed,
but they need a win to take some kind of momentum and positive
thought into the playoffs. The Giants are probably the worst team
of the four teams they've faced at the end of the year (except
maybe Detroit). If they struggle versus the Giants, I wouldn't
put dollar one on them in the following playoff game.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, John Kasay, Carolina Defense,
DeShaun Foster, Amani Toomer, Matt Bryant
2nd String: Muhsin Muhammed, Giant Defense, Jesse Palmer, Tiki
Barber, Ike Hilliard (Questionable)
Prediction: Cats 23, Giants 13
Minnesota (9-6) at Arizona
(3-12) 4:05 PM
It was nice to see the Viking fans come down off the ledge last
week. What a whooping they put on KC! The most impressive part
of the win had to be the defensive effort. They did give up 3
TD's to Priest Holmes, but he gathered only 55 yards in the process.
They also kept Trent Green out of the end zone. Green had been
hot with 4 TD's and 0 INT's in his two previous games. If you
don't follow the NFL closely you might be surprised to hear the
Vikes lead the NFL in interceptions with 27, led by Brian Russell
with a league leading 9 picks and Corey Chavous following up with
8 (and I shouldn't forget Brian Williams with 5). They are able
to cover fairly well, but they excel at anticipating the pass
and getting to the ball first. Unfortunately, I'd have to say
this is the only strong point of this defense. They may have held
Holmes to minimum yards for him, but those 3 TD's allowed are
just a sign of problems that loom. This team can go out and score,
but they need to keep guys out of the end zone if they hope to
go deep in the playoffs. This week should not be a problem. Arizona
comes with a rookie QB in his 3rd game, a good RB that loses his
carries in the red zone, and neither have an offensive line worthy
of protecting them. Arizona is a tougher team at home, but this
week it won't matter as they don't bring enough offensive punch
to keep up with Minnesota. I love Marcel Shipp, I love Rookie
of the Year Anquan Boldin, but with McCown at the helm I sincerely
doubt this unit will get too much production. You can bet Chavous
and Russell will key on Boldin, and I doubt McCown has his skills
honed up to this challenge.
I was shocked to see Sideshow Bob lighting up the Chiefs with
those long bombs from Daunte Culpepper last week. Would someone
tell Randy Moss that Gary Coleman seems to have curled up and
died on his scalp? And did you see that fur Culpepper was wearing
after the game? I guess he felt ashamed of his close-cut fade
as the rest of the team was sporting blown flat afros, so he covered
the rest of his body in hair to fit in. Give it to Culpepper and
Moss: they tore up the Chiefs last week and exposed a major weakness
in their game. It also seems Culpepper has taken the advice of
Moss' fantasy owners: just throw up the ball, go deep, and let
Moss go get it. Nothing like some long-range catch to beef up
the spreads this week! I will say I was a little disappointed
to see Michael Bennett struggle a bit. He hasn't found his groove
just yet, but he's close. Onterrio Smith led the rushing charge,
running like a seasoned veteran and picking up big time yards
on bruising carries. I am trying to keep last week's win in perspective:
this team still worries me. If they can't go deep like that, they
could give up a big lead in no time at all. If KC hadn't fumbled
in midway through the 3rd, I firmly believe they could have gotten
back in that game. This game is a bit worrisome as well: Arizona
plays much better at home, especially on defense, and if the Vikes
struggle they tend to let their frustrations show and choke. I
doubt that happens, but the possibility is there. Minnesota needs
this win: if they win, the NFC North belongs to them. However,
if they lose, they are in the air. They are a lock for the playoffs,
but they could be a division winner even if they lose, they could
be a wild card team, and they could draw a very tough 1st round
opponent. This game is big, and I think the Vikes will step up
to the challenge. I'll predict this as well: watch out for Moss
in these playoffs. If he handles himself well and is able to produce
anywhere close to his potential, he could step his reputation
and game up to an all new level, and that could be a problem for
any team left in the mix.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Onterrio Smith, Michael
Bennett, Aaron Elling, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin
2nd String: Josh McCown, Bryant Johnson, Nate Burleson, Kelly
Campbell, Freddie Jones, Jim Kleinsasser, Minnesota Defense, Moe
Williams, Arizona Defense
Prediction: Vikes 34, Zona 20
Oakland (4-11) at San
Diego (3-12) 4:15 PM
Here is an epic match of immense proportions. Two teams, ripe
with talent and skill, fighting to the death for the honorable
position of
first on the clock. I'm positive
the Bolts are the league's worst team. Arizona is the only other
team in the running, and at least the Cards can make games at
Sun Devil interesting (do they still play at Sun Devil?). I'm
not going to spend this time reflecting on the low level of performance
from this team, and I'm not even going to reflect on the dumbfounding
decision to keep Marty "Why should we run in this spot?"
Schottenheimer (though I would liken THAT decision to the Postal
Service hiring the Unibomber to head up their Christmas operations).
I want to discuss LaDainian Tomlinson. This guy is so money, he's
so good, I'm convinced he's the best RB this league will have
seen since Barry Sanders. Utterly convinced of that fact I am
and will remain. Tomlinson is to the Chargers what John Travolta
was to the Sweathogs and the cast of "Welcome Back Cotter."
He is head and shoulders above his peers, his performances are
obviously on a different level than his teammates, and he is destined
for greatness (assuming he can avoid injury, much like John Travolta
should have avoided "Battlefield Earth" and "Perfect").
8 players in NFL history have posted consecutive seasons of 2,000
yards from scrimmage: Tomlinson joins that list this year (Holmes
last year, Edge James '99-'00, Marshall Faulk '98-'99, Terrell
Davis '97-'98, Thurman Thomas '91-'92, Eric Dickerson '83-'84,
and Sweetness '84-'85). That is nice company to be in. The player
Tomlinson reminds me of the most is Ronnie Lott. Lott went years
playing in the shadows of his future Hall of Fame teammates, but
he was as complete a player as you would ever find in football.
Tomlinson is the same way: he runs, he hits, he catches, he jukes,
he blows you away, he beats you to the hole, he knocks you on
your ass, he blocks as good as any RB in the NFL, and he's as
humble as anyone. Heading into this last game, Tomlinson has 1,402
rushing yards and 708 receiving yards. There has been only one
player in the NFL to rush AND receive for over 1,000 yards. That
guy was Ronnie Lott, and Tomlinson may not do it this year, but
he will be the next to do it.
The Raiders
.. I don't know how to follow that up. If the
Giants are due for "reconstructive surgery," the Raiders
are due to be put out to pasture, and summarily shot and sent
off to the glue factory. They have some good young talent to build
around (Phillip Buchanon, Jerry Porter, Charles Woodson, Tuiasosopo,
Justin Fargas, Napoleon Harris), and they have a great hook-up
for their chemical needs in Janikowski. With that in mind, they
should blow this team up and rebuild. I don't know if Al Davis
has that in him, but it would be the best thing for this team.
They are bad. I don't buy the "rumor" that they played
soft against Brett Favre, that they didn't cover well or that
they weren't trying due to Favre's grieving. They are just very
undisciplined, and they are not coached well, and they make mistakes,
and they suck. It's as simple as that. I'd like to see some young
guys get the start in this game: Justin Fargas has shown some
great promise in his time, and I'd like to see what he can do
against this porous San Diego defense. San Diego couldn't stop
a Yugo from running. That defensive unit is so bad, if they think
Schottenheimer can fix it in one year, they are not only sadly
mistaken but they need to share that happy sauce with the rest
of us. This could be a very high scoring game, as both defensive
units are well below par. Or, it could be low scoring, if the
offenses don't pick it up and give it a go. I know one guy that
will give it a go no matter what. Tomlinson is going to eat this
team up. Oakland has the 2nd worst rushing D in the land, giving
up 150 rushing yards a game. Tomlinson will take that plus some,
and I know 300 yards receiving is beyond him, but I'd love to
see him take a run at it! Brees can't complete a pass to anyone
beyond 10 yards anyway, so why not? Give me the Bolts, stick a
fork in both teams, and let's put San Diego on the clock for the
first pick in the upcoming 2004 NFL Draft (actually, if they win
and Arizona take the loss, I guess you can put them on the clock.
"And with the first pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, the Arizona
Cardinals select Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi").
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Tyrone Wheatley, Sebastian Janikowski
2nd String: Drew Brees, David Boston, Rick Mirer, Charlie Garner,
Jerry Porter, Teyo Johnson, Eric Parker, Antonio Gates, Steve
Christie, Bolt Defense, Raider Defense
Prediction: Raiders 17, Bolts 24
Denver (10-5) at Green
Bay (9-6) 4:15 PM
This may be the match of the week. Green Bay needs a win to stay
in (more than likely they will). Denver is pretty much locked
into the #6 spot (they can move up to the 5 if Tennessee loses
and they win this game, which they will know by game time), and
they have already announced plans to rest certain players for
the playoffs, including Clinton Portis. Maybe this won't be so
great! Actually, maybe it will: did you see rookie RB Quentin
Griffin last week? Dude is fast, and it seemed like he was getting
at least 7 yards on every carry. Denver is going to need some
offense to win this one. The Packers have scored 34 or more in
their last 3 games, and they seem to be hitting their stride at
just the right time. It seemed like everyone was saying the Broncos
had no chance last week versus the Colts without Portis in the
lineup. "Um, Bryan, that was you." Ok, I'll admit I
was a little off. "Um, Bryan, you also said you didn't think
Denver was that good." Yep, I sure did, pegged that one good!
Denver is capable of beating most of the top-level teams in the
NFL. They have a great offense when Plummer is on the field. I've
been a big Plummer guy since his ASU days, and he's starting earn
his respect now that he has left Arizona. He played awesome against
the Colts, throwing all over the field and running out of trouble.
He's got a cannon arm, and he's got great vision. His numbers
would be much better overall if Ashley Lelie didn't drop so many
passes (not to mention the games he missed due to injury). He
will be the key in this one as the Packers' passing D isn't so
good: giving up 220 yards a game and 18 passing TD's allowed thus
far. Their backs can make some plays (19 INT's thus far), but
they do get burned too often and they often give up yards after
the catch. If Denver is going to win this one, they need Plummer
to go deep early and often.
I'm not going to discuss Brett Favre. My words can't do him justice.
I'm sorry for his loss, and was not one bit surprised to see him
treat the Raiders like a juco league team last week. I'll say
this: as a Chicago fan, it means a lot to say that you have nothing
but respect for a long time Packer, and I can say that about Favre.
He'll be back in this one, and there is not too many guys I would
take over Favre in this spot. Last game of the season, your team
needs a win to make the playoffs, and you are facing a tough team
like Denver: give me the crafty, gritty veteran with the heart
bigger than a Hickory Farms Beef Stick, with an arm to match.
Did anyone even notice Ahman Green ran for over 100 yards AGAIN
last week? That makes 9 games out of 15 with 100+ yards rushing
yards for Green, and he'd like to make it 10 to cap a great season.
Denver has a pretty solid defense: only 90 yards rushing per game,
182 yards passing a game, with opponents averaging only 18 points
a game. The receivers of Green Bay could continue their success
and help their QB break this trend with similar efforts to the
game last week. They were catching every ball thrown up, despite
double and triple coverage. Javon Walker is really coming into
this own this year, and he's learned a ton from his time with
Favre. I know the defensive numbers look good overall, but Denver
has struggled against good teams. Take a look at those wins: the
only teams they have beaten with winning records are Cincy (in
Week 1, basically a throw out game if you ask me), KC (who they
also lost to earlier in the year), and Indy. They lost to the
Bears (ha ha), they lost to Minnesota (thus proving the NFC Norris
division is superior), they lost to NE (& will again if they
face up in the playoffs), they lost to Baltimore, and they barely
beat Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. I believe the Broncos
are not going to have their A game this week. I believe they put
little emphasis on this game, and they are happy just to make
the playoffs (makes Shanahan look like a "genius" for
letting Griese go and signing Plummer, even though he's the same
guy that made Griese the highest paid player in the NFL just two
years ago). Don't believe me? Mike Shanahan himself admitted after
the loss to Chicago that he told his team, "you don't need
your best game to win this week." If he is willing to take
that attitude into a regular season game, when your team is struggling
to stay in the playoff race, then I definitely believe you are
willing to write off this game. If Green Bay can come out and
run with success, jump to an early lead, then I expect the Broncos
to fold like a blanket. I could be wrong, it would be the second
week in a row. But I believe the gods of football want the Packers
to win, for nothing more than to make the playoff picture as exciting
and clouded as possible! Take the Pack.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Jake Plummer, Shannon Sharpe,
Javon Walker, Bubba Franks, Ryan Longwell
2nd String: Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, Jason Elam, Denver Defense,
Donald Driver, Packer Defense
Prediction: Donkeys 23, Pack 27
Pittsburgh (6-9) at Baltimore
(9-6) 8:30 PM
Here's a great match up to end the year. You have to have a game
with meaning to end the year on Sunday night. It's a must. It
gives the season a great ending, and leaves you hungry to start
the playoffs immediately. This week we are blessed to see a team
that is not only fighting to win their division, they need the
win just to stay in the playoffs! Baltimore has gone on a great
run late in the season to put themselves at the top of the division.
It's simple: win and you're in. Lose, and you need help. To add
to the spice, this game could also have an effect on the NFC playoff
picture! IF THIS ISN'T ENOUGH, if this won't get you to tune into
ESPN on Sunday Night, then maybe Jamal Lewis and his rush for
greatness will. Lewis is 154 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson's
single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. In the world of Lewis,
this is definitely attainable. The guy has rushed for 500 yards
on Cleveland alone this year, as well as 281 total yards against
the Bengals. One problem: the Steelers are a tough defense. They
held Lewis to 69 yards in the first week of the season. Lewis
may be a different back now, and the Ravens are definitely a different
team, and therefore I'm not willing to put too much on that first
game. Let's look at the numbers for the Steelers' defense in recent
weeks: 91 yards to Tomlinson, 174 yard to Curtis Martin, 65 to
Ty Wheatley, 77 to Dillon/Johnson, and 93 to Bettis. That is just
a bit hard to predict: big numbers to the old farts like Bettis
and Martin, but fairly solid overall (at least they are holding
guys under 100 yards more often than not). They will key on Lewis
all game long, as did Cleveland. However, the Steelers have much
better talent on defense than the Browns. I could run around chasing
my tail like this all night! Here's what I'm going to say: he
will do it. In his last 3 games, he is averaging 170 yds/game.
Even if he doesn't, 2,000 yards is very respectable, and it also
puts him in very exclusive company. If he doesn't get it going
by the mid-3rd quarter, and the Ravens are winning by a nice margin,
don't be surprised to see him sit and rest. Otherwise, I think
this game will be a well-fought battle, and that makes Lewis a
key player and give him more carries to do it.
The Steelers don't have a lot to play for. In fact, I'd venture
to say they are playing more not to have the record broken against
them! On offense the Steelers have struggled all year long. Maddox
has been fairly solid, but I don't know if this team wants to
plan around this guy for years to come. He throws his fair share
of picks, and he's not the strongest arm in the world. 18 TD's
to 14 INT's is nothing to post on the fridge. Jerome Bettis has
enjoyed a late season swoon, rushing for 115 and 1 TD versus the
Bolts last week as well as going for 106 yards and a TD versus
Oakland. Too bad those defensive units are possess the same amount
of talent against the run as you will find in Ray Lewis' big toe.
Baltimore holds opponents to about 99 rush yards a game, as well
as holding them to 177 yards passing a game. The pass D gets better
with every game. Chris McAllister may be the best cover guy in
the NFL, and his partner Ed Reed is also Pro Bowl bound. You know
about Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Peter Boulware. They are probably
already keeping Tommy "Can I slide in the pocket?" Maddox
up at night. Maddox has been sacked 36 freakin' times this year,
and you can bet the Ravens will add to that number. The only player
I see having any success in this game for Pittsburgh is Hines
Ward (at least offensively). It seems Ward can find space and
make catches against any team out there. He can't throw to himself,
he can't take handoffs (those plays never work), and he has to
rely on the guy on his back to get him the ball. Antwaan Randle
El could be bit of an X factor, but I sincerely doubt it. The
truth is as follows: this Baltimore team needs this game, and
they have the kind of emotion and drive on defense to win the
game by keeping Pittsburgh off the scoreboard. I worry about the
lack of production from Anthony Wright at QB for Baltimore, as
his numbers have really sagged in recent weeks, but I don't think
it's enough to lose the game. Lewis will battle, he may not get
to 150, but he is sure gonna try. Ray Lewis will win this game
for the Ravens: he will demand his team plays at 120%, he will
demand his teammates come hard, and he will do what he can (he's
injured, but he's going to play) to make sure the Ravens take
this one home and into the playoffs. Give me the Ravens, let the
Bengals go home disappointed (but ok as they have improved dramatically
in a very short time), and let's get the playoffs going!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Jamal Lewis, Hines Ward, Baltimore Defense, Todd Heap,
Jeff Reed
2nd String: Tommy Maddox, Anthony Wright, Plaxico Burress, Marcus
Robinson, Pitt Defense, Jerome Bettis, Antwaan Randle El, Amos
Zereoue, Jay Reimersma, Travis Taylor, Matt Stover
Prediction: Steel Curtain 17, Birds 28
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