Bye Week: Miami, NY Giants, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Last Week's Projections: (12-2)
85.7%
Season's Projections: (36-10)
78.3%
Philadelphia
(0-2) at Buffalo (2-1), 1:00 PM
This week Philly is coming off the first bye week in the NFL, and
Buffalo is wishing they were too. Buffalo had an awful game versus
Miami on Sunday night; a game in which Ricky Williams ran the ball
42 times (this doesn't help your defensive rankings), only 118 net
yards of offense was gained by the Bills, and RB Travis Henry ended
the night with half as many interceptions as Bledsoe. To say it
didn't go well for Buffalo is a huge understatement: it was a complete
and total disaster. There is one thing to be taken from this game:
the Buffalo defense did a great job despite losing the game. Ricky
gained 153 yards, but only broke into the end zone once. It can
also be said that if Ricky gets 153 yards but takes over 40 carries
to do so, you made him work harder than any other team in the NFL
has made him work in the last two seasons. Besides, the defense
did play well against the passing attack of Miami, and that aspect
of the game is what this team will need to have pumping to beat
Philly. Star QB Donovan McNabb is suffering an awful start to his
season: in two games thus far, he is completing only 45% of his
pass attempts, he is averaging only 4 yards a completion, his longest
pass so far is only 24 yards, and (this is the big one) he has 3
more interceptions and 11 more sacks than touchdowns (0 TD's so
far). His timing has been just plain bad: he has missed open receivers,
he's been unable to deliver the ball to planned spots, and he's
been lousy at improvising on the run. Coach Andy Reid has stated
he realizes he doesn't call enough run plays to help take pressure
off of McNabb. It wouldn't matter: his RB's are not producing any
kind of threat anyway. Go to the Team Stats for the Eagles: you'll
find 3 players IN FRONT OF the top RB's for this team (current rushing
ranking: McNabb, Thrash, Westbrook, Staley, Buckhalter). Duce is
supposed to be the man for this team when it comes to running, and
the low number of carries, one might think, would help his average
yards per run. Well, he has an average of 2.6 yards a carry: not
good no matter how often or how little you get the rock. Until they
show otherwise, this Eagles offense is completely vulnerable and
will not challenge any decent NFL defensive unit, especially not
a top-notch unit like the Buffalo Bills.
Despite the failings of the last week, the Bills offense is tough.
Drew Bledsoe has been playing like the best QB in the game. He has
3 interceptions on the year, but 2 of those came against Miami.
Even with the bad game on Sunday night, Bledsoe is averaging a little
over 8 yards a completion, completing 60% of his passes, and is
in the top 10 for QB rating (considering only starting QB's). Travis
Henry was hurt in the game with Miami, and at this time his status
is uncertain. This does hurt the offensive production, as Henry
has been the top TD man for Buffalo thus far. However, with Moulds,
Shaw, and Reed roaming the field as receivers, Bledsoe has great
weapons to keep a defensive unit (especially a unit plagued with
injuries, like the Eagles) guessing and out of double teams. Buffalo's
passing game should return to form at home versus this bad Philly
team: their defensive players should rule the Eagles, the offense
should find success (though it will be less successful if Henry
can't go), and Buffalo should make the hometown fans happy (and,
hopefully, forget the egg they laid in Miami).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Buffalo Defense, Travis Henry
(Questionable)
2nd String: Bobby Shaw, Josh Reed, Donovan McNabb, Duce Staley,
David Akers
Prediction: Philly 12, Buffalo
27
New England
(2-1) at Washington (2-1), 1:00 PM
The Pats are decimated by injury. They've lost big members of
the defense for the year (Rosevelt Colvin is done for the year,
Ted Washington is out indefinitely, Ted Johnson is gone for the
year). Unknown by many is the condition of Tom Brady. Brady became
the target of speculation during the game against the Jets last
week following a tackle in which Brady seemed to land on his arm
"funny." The announcers commented on the obvious changes in Brady's
throwing style after the hit, noting he seemed to be injured and
that more news was likely to come out after the game. Considering
the great number of injuries and problems this team has suffered
already, it is understandable that Brady would want to lead his
team through injury and the team would want to wait to discuss
the injury. Nothing has been officially announced! The possibility
that the injury was not serious is probable, but anyone who watched
the game and listened to the commentary has to wonder. One also
has to wonder after watching the Patriots struggle against the
Jets last week. The Patriots defense almost allowed Vinny Testaverde
to get the Jets a come from behind win. If the Patriots struggle
to keep a low scoring team like the Jets at bay, they are in for
big headaches versus the Redskins. Patrick Ramsey may be the NFL's
best QB thus far: he's put up over 350 passing yards in the last
two games, he brought his team from behind to beat the Falcons
in Week 2, and almost did the same to the Giants last week. Trung
Candidate and Ladell Betts have been a solid running tandem thus
far. Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner have been great. Washington's
offense is really starting to click and will give the Pat's hobbled
defense more than it can handle.
The Redskins defense is a point of concern. They have the talent,
but they've allowed so much scoring: 5 passing TD's and 3 rushing
TD's. It is hard to place a finger on what exactly is wrong. They
are loaded with talented players and should have no problems stopping
the run or pass, yet they struggle to keep teams from scoring.
If Brady is healthy, the Patriots can definitely put up some points.
They have a decent running game with Kevin Faulk and good receivers
with Deion Branch and Troy Brown leading the corps. However, they
are not overpowering and the Redskins have got to get the defense
rolling at some point. This is a good opportunity to do so: take
advantage of the weakened opponent, keep up the productivity on
offense, and hopefully the defense can step up their performance,
and the Skins should come out with another win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Patrick Ramsey, Laveranues Coles, Rod Gardner, Washington
Defense, John Hall
2nd String: Tom Brady, Kevin Faulk, Trung Candidate, Ladell Betts,
Deion Branch, Christian Fauria
Prediction: Pats 14, Redskins
23
Arizona
(1-2) at St. Louis (1-2), 1:00 PM
Well, the Cardinals did what many (including myself) called impossible
and beat the Green Bay Packers. In all fairness, Green Bay did
plenty of damage to themselves. Arizona can do some things on
offense that could help keep them competitive. Namely, they pass
the ball, a lot: they average 268 yards passing a game (4th best
passing offense in the NFL). Take into account the personnel and
it becomes more impressive. Jeff Blake is a veteran with a chip
on his shoulder and the receiver corps is a bunch of kids, almost
all rookies (Anquan Boldin, Bryant Johnson, Bryan Gilmore). They
can go deep all day long. The running game is not as healthy:
with Emmitt as the starter, the Cardinals less than 90 yards rushing
a game. Although it's a number that isn't horrible, it's not good
enough to scare the defensive units of the NFL.
The Rams won't be scared, and they won't be worried about Jeff
Blake and company either. The Rams are not a good defensive team
and rushing is their weakness: they've allowed an average of over
130 yards rushing a game thus far. If Arizona can't take advantage
of this, they will struggle to score enough points (not to mention
keeping St. Louis from scoring too much) to stay in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams are beat up on offense.
Marshall Faulk is out 4 to 6 weeks with a broken hand (and has
decided to have knee surgery while he's at it). Fortunately, Lamar
Gordon is a capable backup. He's seen some action this year (14
carries for 72 yards, averaging 5.1 a carry isn't too shabby)
and showed his abilities last year. He's solid and should do well
in relief of Faulk. Bulger has played well and can't really be
blamed for the close loss to Seattle. Here is a concern: the Arizona
defense actually looks better than St. Louis in some aspects.
They allow about the same number of passing yards a game, and
the Rams allow about 40 more rushing yards a game. However, despite
the yardage numbers, there are some big differences: the scoring,
the sacks, and the intimidation factor. Arizona has allowed 7
passing TD's and 2 rushing TD's, opposed to 4 and 2 respectively
for St. Louis. The Rams have reached the QB 7 times and Arizona
only once. The Cardinals don't have any respect, they don't put
fear in any NFL team, and every team will come into a game like
this willing to try anything. It's not like when you play Baltimore:
you don't come in and say, "well, we won't run the ball" (San
Diego didn't seem to think that either, but that's for later).
St. Louis will run, they will pass, they will run trick plays,
and they will win. I'm sorry, but I refuse to believe (a) the
Rams are so bad they will blow this game after the tough loss
to Seattle, and (b) the Cardinals are capable of winning two games
in a row. Take the Rams, but don't be surprised if it's closer
than you might think.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Lamar Gordon, Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin
2nd String: Jeff Blake, Emmitt Smith, Isaac Bruce, Jeff Wilkens
Prediction: Arizona 17, St. Louis 28
San Francisco
(1-2) at Minnesota (3-0), 1:00 PM
To say the Vikings are a surprise is a vast understatement. Most
professional publications had them competing, but felt the defense
and running game was too soft for a serious bid at a conference
championship, much less a division win. The Vikes have been stronger
than predicted in most areas. The biggest improvement has been
the offensive line. Daunte Culpepper has had great protection
and time to find both Randy Moss and Kelly Campbell (another big
surprise, Campbell has overtaken D'wayne Bates as the #2 receiver);
Moe Williams has looked like a Pro Bowl candidate running the
ball between those gapping blocks (Onterrio Smith has even gotten
some good carries and looked better than first thought); even
when Culpepper has been on the run he's had great blocking and
protection, which is huge considering Culpepper's propensity for
fumbles. Daunte may or may not be out for this match up with San
Fran: he has cracked backbones following a hit suffered on a TD
run versus Detroit. Most reports from Minnesota have Culpepper
throwing with problem, having pain but nothing unbearable, and
throwing on the flack jacket and playing. The kid is tough and
has become the leader of this team. This, along with the changes
in attitude from Randy Moss (though he did show some flashes of
his old self versus Detroit), have turned the team into a strong
offensive unit capable of big plays at any given time. The 49ers
defense is not very tough: their numbers are not too bad, but
you have to account for the game against Chicago in Week 1 (5
of the teams' 13 total sacks came against Chicago, as did 3 of
the teams' 4 total interceptions). They are playing decent against
the pass, but they have not faced a team like Minnesota yet: they
did play St. Louis, with a concussion ridden Kurt Warner and a
team that didn't give Marshall Faulk the ball but 9 times! Moe
Williams may have a tough time if you judge by the numbers, but
again, the 49ers defensive rankings against the run are really
not a true testament: they've played against Chicago (enough said
there), St. Louis (who treated Faulk like he had the plague),
and Cleveland (who did run ok, but are having trouble using Willie
Green effectively). The offensive line of Minnesota, along with
Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith (not to mention Culpepper if he
plays), will give the 49ers the first true running test of the
season.
On offense, the 49ers showed something the last two weeks: they
are, almost, a two-man show. Cleveland, though they didn't shut
down Owens by any means, did keep the Garcia-to-Owens factor out
of the end zone. Hearst and Barlow are respectable runners, but
have yet to take a game over or become the lead offensive threat
in any game. If a team can keep Garcia-to-Owens respectable, they
can beat this 49ers team. Much like the 49ers, the Vikes' defense
has played Chicago (and had a much tougher time). However, their
other games have been against respectable teams: Green Bay in
Week 1 (Ahman Green will test your run defense if anyone in the
NFC can) and Detroit in Week 3 (Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers
serve as a good barometer for your pass defense). Although they
are not a top defensive team, they've kept games respectable and
kept both passing and rushing numbers fairly low (they average
about 200 passing yards allowed a game; we won't take the 73 rushing
yards allowed a game too serious, as Chicago and Detroit hardly
serve up a good rushing attack). In order for the 49ers to have
a serious chance of winning this game, they will have to put more
emphasis on Hearst and Barlow. They will have to play clock control,
keep the ball away from the Vikings' offense, and give the Vikings
a reason not to double up on Owens. Until the 49ers show they
deserve serious respect, they will struggle to find wins against
teams like Minnesota. The Vikes are on a roll, and the 49ers don't
have the tools to slow it down.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Daunte Culpepper (Questionable), Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Moe Williams
2nd String: Kelly Campbell, Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst, Jim Kleinsasser, Aaron Elling Prediction: 49ers 13, Vikings 21
Tennessee
(2-1) at Pittsburgh (2-1), 1:00 PM
The Titans are a little bit of a puzzle: which team is the REAL
Titans? The team we saw in Weeks 1 and 3, beating up the Raiders
and the Saints will relative ease, or the team we saw in Week
2 that was manhandled by the Colts? Why not both? Indy has a solid
defensive squad: they were able to pressure McNabb, control George,
and keep the Titans offense guessing. The Raiders and Saints are
horrible defensive teams. You can draw one conclusion from these
games: the Titans will struggle when challenges by a solid defense.
Pittsburgh has a solid defense, ranking #2 in the NFL for Passing
Defense (allowing 130 passing yards a game). Porter is back, Gildon
is awesome, and Bell is a stud. Don't expect George to be a factor:
the NFL may say Pitt is allowing 101 rushing yards a game, but
the NFL doesn't care if you've faced Priest Holmes (as the Steelers
did in Week 2) or your grandma. Besides, George's only 100-yard
performance thus far has been last week against the Saints, and
that is nothing to brag about. The onus is going to be on McNair
to provide the points, and Porter, Gildon, and Bell will have
plenty to say about that! McNair is a top performer, and he'll
get some plays, but the Pittsburgh defense is always pumped to
play this Titans team and they will bring the house to stop him.
On the other hand, Tommy Maddox has been one of the best surprises
of the season thus far. Many were concerned about his injury history
and whether he could lead this team effectively. Not only has
he lead the team, he's helped Burress, Ward, and Randle El become
the biggest receiving trio in the NFL. Its no surprise the Steelers
are ranked #2 in passing offense: if you have the weapons you
have to use them! They will need to go to the air against the
Titans this weekend. The Titans have a solid defense as well,
allowing an average of less than 200 passing yards a game. That
number is more impressive when you consider their opponents thus
far: Oakland, Indy, and New Orleans (all pass happy teams). The
Steelers will have to run the ball to keep the Titans honest.
Fortunately, they have had good success running the ball. Amos
Zereoue has been solid and Jerome Bettis had a great game last
week versus Cincinnati. The Steelers are an all-around solid team
and will provide too much defense for the Titans. Know one has
stopped Burress yet, and you shouldn't bet on the Titans to be
the first. McNair will play well, but he can only do so much.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Plaxico Burress, Tommy Maddox, Pittsburgh Defense,
Hines Ward, Steve McNair (Questionable), Derrick Mason
2nd String: Amos Zereoue, Eddie George, Titans Defense, Antwaan
Randle El, Jay Riersema, Jeff Reed, Jerome Bettis, Tyler Calico,
Drew Bennett
Prediction: Titans 17, Steelers
24
Cincinnati
(0-3) at Cleveland (1-2), 1:00 PM
The Bengals are proving to be a tougher opponent than anyone had
guessed. The main culprit of surprise is the Bengals' defense:
after 3 weeks the Bengals rank 4th in passing defense, allowing
only 150 yards per game. This is an amazing turn around and has
caught many teams by surprise: Denver only passed for 109 yards
in Week 1 and Oakland passed for only 134 yards in Week 2. These
efforts have kept the Bengals in their games longer than expected
and even made them contenders versus Oakland (they kept last week's
game with Pittsburgh close, but not by shutting down the pass).
Surprisingly, the Cincy offense has been a little bit of a letdown.
With Jon Kitna throwing, Corey Dillon running, Chad Johnson playing
well, and even Peter Warrick finding his college form, the Bengals
have still struggled to put points on the board. They can expect
this to continue this week versus Cleveland. As Cincy's pass D
is ranked 4th, the Browns are ranked 3rd (a difference of only
2 yards a game). They didn't necessarily shut down the pass happy
offense of the 49ers last week, but they did keep Owens out of
the end zone (not to mention all the other 49er players). Cleveland
has yet to allow a passing TD this year. If this trend is to continue,
then Cincy has but one choice: let Corey Dillon do the work. As
good as Cleveland's D has been versus the pass, they have been
not-so-good versus the run: they rank 30th in rushing defense,
allowing an average of almost 162 rushing yards a game. San Fran
was unable to take advantage of this weakness, getting the ball
to RB's Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow only a combined 16 times
for 32 yards. If anyone on Cincy's roster can carry this team
by himself, it's been Corey Dillon. Expect Dillon to get the ball
early and often (despite news of a strained groin, he has told
reporters he is feeling well and should be 100% for this game).
Cleveland's offense has sputtered in most games, but finally broke
out the passing attack this last weekend versus San Fran. Kelly
Holcomb led his team down the field late to score in the finishing
seconds on a pass to Andre Davis, capping a great performance
for Holcomb: 222 yards, going 25 of 38 (about 66% completion rate)
with 2 TD's and 1 INT. Unfortunately, Holcomb suffered a hairline
fracture in his right leg. At this time, Coach Butch Davis has
said he may still play in this game versus Cincy. The main reason
for this optimism may be that Coach Davis realizes he needs to
lean on RB Willie Green in this game. Green, despite smaller numbers,
has played solid in all three of the Browns' games. As bad as
Cleveland is at stopping the rush, Cincy is not much better: they
rank 28th overall, allowing 152 rush yards a game. These two teams
are evenly matched and fans can expect a game of old: lots of
hard-hitting, smash mouth football with the emphasis on running
and defense. Give the edge to Cincy: Corey Dillon may be too much
for this team to handle, and if given the opportunity he can take
this game over for Cincy and lead them to victory.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String:Corey Dillon, William Green, Chad Johnson
2nd String: Kelly Holcomb, Peter Warrick, Jon Kitna, Andre Davis
Prediction: Cincy 18, Cleveland
16
Atlanta
(1-2) at Carolina (2-0), 4:15 PM
The Falcons are struggling without Mike Vick. Doug Johnson has
not seized the opportunity (he's a free agent at year's end) to
improve his NFL status and the entire team is struggling. They've
had moments of production: they played well in the first half
of the Washington game, and they somehow managed to beat an improved
Dallas team. If Atlanta thought they had trouble with Tampa's
defense, wait till they face a rested Carolina squad. Carolina
has one of the top 2 defensive units in the NFL (I'd rank them
#2, some disagree) and they are coming off their bye week. It
stands to reason that the outcome of this game will be similar
to that of the Tampa game, except the Panthers have a better offense.
Don't expect Warrick Dunn or TJ Duckett to be very effective,
and Doug Johnson hasn't made the passing game work well at all.
There is little to nothing on the Atlanta offense (I'll give you
Alge Crumpler, he's been far and away the best offensive player
on this team) to be excited about, and this week looks to be more
of the same.
The Panthers, for all their defensive power, are not quite as
strong on offense, but they are improving. Stephen Davis is even
better than advertised: one could argue he's been one of the top
three free agent signings in the NFL thus far. He's been solid,
and his production is starting to help the passing game improve.
Jake Delhomme should have started the season as the #1 QB: he's
strong armed, tough as lead, and has great leadership qualities
(see the Week 1 come from behind win over Jacksonville, or Week
2's OT win over Tampa Bay). The defense alone should win this
game for Carolina, but the offense should take advantage of the
soft Atlanta defense. Steve Smith is showing his abilities more
as a receiver every game (he's already one of the top return guys
in the league), especially considering the personal problems last
season. This offense should improve every week. Expect Davis to
run for 100 yards again, expect Delhomme to throw the ball, and
expect a win for Carolina.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Panthers Defense, Stephen Davis, Jake Delhomme, Jay Feeley
2nd String: Peerless Price, Alge Crumpler, Steve Smith Prediction: Falcons 6, Panthers 20
Kansas
City (3-0) at Baltimore (2-1), 4:05 PM
Last week, I started to look at this game as the first true test
for Priest Holmes. It's hard to say that now, as LaDainian Tomlinson
ran very well against this Baltimore defense (105 yards & 1 TD).
It's hard to imagine a team that could contain Holmes, and if
this Baltimore team plays like it did last week it won't either.
KC may be the best team in the NFL right now. They do it all:
they pass, they run, they score, and they play great defense.
3 and 0 is not a fluke with KC, and the Ravens will have their
hands full stopping them this week. Trent Green is as good a QB
as you'll find in the NFL. He's made the entire receiving squad
important: despite not having one outstanding receiver, they average
over 200 yards passing a game. Tony Gonzalez played his best game
last week and is going to get back to his big yard ways more consistently.
That's the scary thing about this team: they can get better.
As good as Baltimore's rush defense is (they get tons of respect
as the top run defense in the league, even though, right now,
they are not even top 10), KC's defense is better. Look at the
numbers: KC gives up 77 rushing yards a game to Baltimore's 93.
Jamal Lewis will definitely test KC. Baltimore doesn't have a
choice! They are struggling to pass the ball with rookie Kyle
Boller. Boller did suffer a minor injury last week versus San
Diego, but he's a go for this week. It is hard to say how long
Boller will remain the starter: Baltimore ranks dead last in passing
offense (averaging a horrible 96 yards passing a game). KC's pass
defense is definitely their weak point (though its not horrible)
and if Baltimore can't take advantage (let's put it this way:
if Pittsburgh, the leagues' second best passing team, can't take
advantage, how will Baltimore), it seems unlikely they will be
able to score enough with Jamal Lewis. KC is battle tested: big
wins over San Diego (they kicked 'em good, as they should), Pittsburgh
(they kicked them good, and maybe they shouldn't have), and Houston
(not a top team, but not a bad team either) have given KC not
just 3 wins, but 3 strong wins. Baltimore will be another tough
test, but KC should shine again.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Priest Holmes (Questionable), Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, KC Defense
2nd String: Baltimore Defense, Eddie Kennison, Morten Andersen Prediction: Chiefs 32, Ravens 16
Jacksonville
(0-3) at Houston (1-2), 1:00 PM
So, how long before the owner of the Jags shakes his finger at
Coach Jack Del Rio, tells him he was right, and Byron Leftwich
becomes the starter? Mark Brunell is injured and, at time of print,
is an unknown for the week (he's listed as Questionable, though
Del Rio stands by his man and says if he can go Brunell will start).
Its hard to fault Brunell: he's been a NFL Pro Bowler, he's been
the leader of this team for since its inception, and starting
a rookie QB doesn't work out 99% of the time. However, one has
to wonder how Leftwich can come in and lead the team downfield
so much easier than Brunell. The one constant thus far for Jacksonville
has been Freddie Taylor: he's quietly had great games, been a
solid runner, and stayed healthy. He'll have a tough time this
week versus Houston: Houston does allow 120 yards rushing a game,
but have had great efforts against Ricky Williams and Deuce McAllister.
Houston has kept games closer than expected, and the Jags provide
another opportunity to pick up another win. In order to have a
chance, they better find a way to keep Fred Taylor somewhat respectable.
On offense, the Texans are improving every week. David Carr has
put up some decent numbers and seems more comfortable with every
passing play. Ande Johnson has already become a big time player:
he's fast as the wind, he's got great hands, and he's already
become the #1 guy in Houston. The Jags' defense is feast or famine:
it showed last week again as they couldn't stop Edge James. They
have some great players (John Henderson, Marcus Stroud, Hugh Douglas)
but if they aren't all playing well the entire unit suffers. This
game is hard to judge! Both defensive units have big potential,
but neither has shown any consistency. Both offenses struggle
for the same consistency. There is only one notable difference:
Stacey Mack, Fred Taylor's long time backup, is not on the same
level as Taylor, and that could be the difference in this game.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Fred Taylor, Houston Defense, Andre Johnson
2nd String: Mark Brunell (Questionable), Byron Leftwich (if Brunell doesn't play), David Carr, Stacey Mack, Matthew Hatchette, Jabar Gaffney Prediction: Jags 14, Texans 13
San
Diego (0-3) at Oakland (1-2), 4:05 PM
The Chargers are the most disappointing team in the NFL. Tomlinson
is one of the league's best players, but he hasn't gotten the
chance to shine as the Chargers have found themselves battling
from behind in every game. Drew Brees is a great talent, but his
weapons have either sat out due to injury or been unable to hold
on to his passes. The defense has been just awful: they are young,
they are inexperienced, and the NFL is taking advantage. They've
had a tough schedule, but that is not excuse for the horrible
play of this team. The only other team that matches the Chargers
in the level of disappointment thus far is, oddly enough, the
Raiders. They too have had trouble scoring, getting the passing
game rolling, or getting their star players quality time in key
situations. They, too, have an underachieving defense. This game
doesn't look as good as it did during the preseason!
One thing is for sure: the Chargers are going to run the ball.
The Raiders are in the bottom 10 teams for rushing defense in
the NFL, giving up an average of about 132 rushing yards a game.
Denver ran well against Oakland, and Portis didn't even play in
the second half! Tomlinson will get his chance to shine this week.
Brees will throw the ball, but Tomlinson will be asked to carry
the bulk of the offensive load. They will want to keep Charlie
Garner and Rich Gannon off the field, they will want to play ball
control football, and they will want their first win. It won't
be a popular decision, but I am convinced this Raiders team misses
Jerry Porter more than they ever imagined. They are void of a
big play threat (except for possibly Charlie Garner), they don't
have the team speed, and Rice and Brown just can't get it done.
The defense will not stop LaDainian, and he will finally make
all of his fantasy owners proud and get his team their first win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Charlie Garner, Sebastian Janikowski
2nd String: Rich Gannon, Drew Brees, David Boston (Questionable) Prediction: Chargers 21, Raiders 17
Dallas
(1-1) at NY Jets (0-3), 4:15 PM
Bill Parcels was expected to make Dallas better, but you must
admit this team is better than most everyone expected. No one
(including myself) picked them to upset the Giants in their last
game. The passing of Quincy Carter has been to most noticeable
improvement. No one expected Carter to last in the NFL at this
point last year. So far this year, he has lead the Cowboys to
the #1 ranking for Passing Offense in all the NFL. How many of
you would have guessed that? They average 275 yards passing a
game: granted, they've played two games, but one of those games
was against a tough Giants D. Carter has a great opportunity to
keep those numbers up this week versus a struggling Jets team.
The Jets defense is not playing to potential at all. They are
especially vulnerable to the running attack. The Jets give up
an average of 165 rushing yards a game. Troy Hambrick (who looked
good in the Monday night game versus the Giants) and Aveion Cason
will have to bring their A game, and if they can find some success
that will help open up the passing game. That is how most teams
have beaten the Jets and the Cowboys are likely to follow the
recipe as well.
The Jets finally started to get some passing game last week in
a tough loss to the Patriots. Vinny is still not the QB he once
was, but the other weapons in the offensive arsenal are starting
to come around, with one exception. Curtis Martin has yet to find
his old form, and it is looking more and more like the Jets need
to go to LaMont Jordan as the lead rusher for this team. Martin
has been around so long, he may not have the game to succeed in
the NFL anymore. He's had a Hall of Fame career, and the Jets
just can't watch him flounder much more if they hope to start
winning. The passing game has some receivers: Wayne Chrebet, Santana
Moss, and Curtis Conway have some good plays in them. They just
can't seem to get on track, and to say they miss Chad Pennington
is the biggest understatement this side of saying "Salma Hayek
is a looker." It is hard to imagine too much winning for this
team without Pennington. The Dallas defense is pretty good: they
struggle a little against the pass, but have been money versus
the rushing game. The Jets will have to put together a much better
passing attack to win games like this. Until they show otherwise,
there is no reason to believe the Jets have the plays to win this
match up. They may keep it respectable, and to believe Dallas
can blow out anyone is a hard case to make. Go with Dallas.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Quincy Carter, Dallas Defense, Troy Hambrick, Billy Cundiff
2nd String: Avieon Cason, Vinny Testaverde Prediction: Cowboys 21, Jets 17
Detroit
(1-2) at Denver (3-0), 4:15 PM
The Broncos would like to argue over whether KC is the NFL's best
team. They have been impressive: they run well, they pass well
(when Plummer is healthy, and now especially that he's settled
into Denver), and their defense has been their biggest story.
The Broncos have great offensive weapons: Plummer has all the
talent and ability to succeed in the Broncos' scheme, Portis is
proving his numbers from last year were not a fluke, Ashlie Lelie
is coming into this own as a big time receiving threat, Shannon
Sharpe is still one of the best TE's in the game, and Rod Smith
and Eddie Mac are just as tough and solid as ever. The offensive
line is doing a great job thus far despite some injury problems.
They all combine to make up one of the most potent offensive units
in the NFL, and they are more than capable of scoring enough points
to beat Detroit. Detroit's defense is not good at all. They give
up over 250 yards passing and 140 yards rushing a game. Both put
Detroit in the bottom 10 teams for both categories. They won't
stop any aspect of the Broncos, plain and simple.
Detroit will put up some passing yards. The one thing they have
done in every game thus far, no matter who their opponent has
been, is pass the ball. Charles Rogers and Joey Harrington may
be the Montana to Rice of the future. The Denver D is tough, but
they are vulnerable to the pass. Joey won't hesitate to take what
Denver gives him, and that will be some passing plays here and
there. This game should be a romp for Denver, another learning
process for Detroit, and a good offensive game no matter what
you enjoy.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Clinton Portis, Jake Plummer (Questionable), Ashlie Lelie, Shannon Sharpe, Charlie Rogers
2nd String: Joey Harrington, Rod Smith, Denver Defense Prediction: Lions 10, Broncos 31
Indianapolis
(3-0) at New Orleans (1-2), 8:30 PM
The Colts have officially served notice to the rest of the NFL:
we've got it all working, and we are here to win. The last two
weeks the Colts have posted significant wins, beating up the Titans
and Jaguars. The biggest story out of Indy is the return of Edge
James. Not Edgerrin James: Edgerrin James is the guy who suffered
the knee injury, struggled last year through pain and doubt, and
made all of you fantasy buffs drop him into the second round of
your drafts. Now, Edge is back. Edge is the guy that led the NFL
in rushing for 2 years straight. Edge made the Colts look smart
for (a) trading Marshall Faulk for his draft pick, and (b) picking
him over Ricky Williams. Edge is back and making a run at the
playoffs again. He has leaded his team's offense to 3 victories
so far. This week he takes aim at the Saints, who give up an average
of 110 yards rushing a game. Believe James will be the big factor
in this game once again. He'll get the ball at least 25 times,
if not more. It would be nice to see Marvin Harrison and Peyton
Manning hook up more than they have, but winning is key and Edge
gives them the best chance to do so.
The real hero of this Indy team has been the defense. Coach Tony
Dungy was brought on to make the offense work better and build
the defense in the mold with which he built Tampa's overpowering
defensive unit. He has already shown success: Dwight Freeney (though
injured) is the best young defensive player in the game (along
with Julius Peppers), and the team as unit is functioning unbelievably
well. They will have a good test in New Orleans this weekend.
The Saints can put up some yards: Deuce McAllister is a great
running back and has been the backbone of this squad; Aaron Brooks
has great talent and weapons to match in Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth.
The Saints would love to rush the ball more: they average only
76 yards rushing a game. Deuce has been challenged by every team
they've played, and you better believe the Colts will do the same.
Deuce cannot do it alone: he's likely to get some good carries,
but if the passing game can't find the openings and score (or
at least get them downfield for Deuce to punch it in) then the
Colts will claim victory. The Saints have struggled in this aspect:
they can't get into the red zone where Deuce works best. The Colts
will use James to control the clock, to get down the field, and
to keep Deuce off the field. The passing game has got to be working
at maximum potential to win this one, and they have yet to make
in work (thus, the 1-2 record). The Saints just don't have the
defense to do the things necessary to stop this Colts team. It
the Titans can't do it, then its fair to assume New Orleans won't
either.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn
2nd String: Aaron Brooks, Indy Defense, Reggie Wayne, Donte Stallworth, Dallas Clark, John Carnery, Mike Vanderjagt Prediction: Indy 32, Saints 14
Green
Bay (1-2) at Chicago (0-2), 9:00 PM
The Packers laid a huge egg at Arizona last week. After watching
the game, it remains a mystery why the Packers didn't run more.
There is no denying the Packers' defense is weak against the pass,
which played well to Arizona's one and only strength. The Pack
faithful are unwavering, but many in the press have pointed the
finger at Brett Favre. The 5 picks in last week's loss didn't
help, and there is some validity to the argument that Brett isn't
the player he once was. He's older, he doesn't run as well or
as much, and he can't be as crazy as he once played. However,
this can benefit the team if the other players step up. They need
more from Ahman Green (he's been great, but 21 carries for 53
yards against Arizona could have been better), Javon Walker (the
kid has tons of talent, but needs to be a daily contributor),
and Bubba Franks (Franks is good, but it seems like his production
is not what it was last season). Brett is still a top NFL QB,
and to say he is alone responsible for this teams up and downs
is just stupid. He'll get his chance to shine this week against
an awful Chicago team. Believe he'll have his run ins with Urlacher,
and he'll take them like he always does: he gets up, slaps ya'
on the ass, and says, "Now that's football." However, other than
Urlacher, the pass rush for Chicago is hurting and will not pose
a serious threat to Favre. Ahman Green should have a better game
as well, and that is the real key to Green Bay's success. Green
has the ability to be a top 5 RB in the NFL, he just needs to
find the consistency (a better offensive line would help) to get
those yards in every game.
The Green Bay defense is nothing to show off, but they are playing
Chicago. Chicago may have the title for worst team in the NFL
after the Cardinals beat the Packers last weekend. At least the
Cardinals can pass the ball. Marty Booker must be frustrated with
the lack of balls he's seen, and Kordell Stewart is rumored to
be on the hot seat. Chicago locals and press are dying to get
a win, and almost as anxious to see Rex Grossman in action. Grossman
is one of the best QB's out of the draft, and he's definitely
the future of this team. The real question is whether the future
should be next year or next week. I will be honest: I have big
time personal feelings about Chicago as a big time Bears fan (I'd
be happy to share, just drop me an email) and if Kordell continues
to struggle the Bears have to do SOMETHING. They can't run, they
can't pass, they can't score, and they are THE worse team in the
NFL. Urlacher can't do it all, the defense can't do it all, and
if Kordell, A-Train, and Edinger can't find some way to get points
on the board, they will stay at the bottom. Until things change
in the city with big shoulders, the Packers shouldn't worry about
their biggest NFL rival.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Javon Walker, Ryan Longwell
2nd String: Marty Booker, Donald Driver (Questionable), Bubba Franks, Desmond Clark
Prediction: Packers 21, Bears
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