Bye Week: St. Louis, NY Jets,
Baltimore, Houston
Last Week's Projections: (10-4)
71.4%
Season's Projections: (46-14)
76.6%
Minnesota (4-0) at Atlanta
(1-3), 1:00 PM
Let's start with a tale of two teams: the Vikings are vying for
consideration as the NFL's best team, and the Falcons are putting
in their bid as the worst. The defense for the Falcons has been
horrid: giving up 150 yards rushing a game (with the most rushing
TD's allowed in the NFL thus far, 6) as well as 230 yards passing
a game (despite 10 sacks!). Without Keith Brookings, it is hard
to imagine just how bad this defense could perform. Now is NOT a
good time to run into one of the NFL's best offenses. The Vikings
have almost all of their tools working: they can pass, they can
run, and they can kick. Randy Moss, though he still has a habit
of taking certain plays off, has been more motivated and more productive
thus far than in recent years. Daunte Culpepper has been solid,
despite his constant battle to avoid fumbles. This, in large part,
is due to the improved offensive line, which has also allowed for
huge strides in the running game. Moe Williams has been enjoying
his best year as a pro, and Onterrio Smith has gotten more snaps
in the last two games (and has taken advantage, scoring his first
NFL TD last week). It is hard to find an argument supporting a low
scoring game for Minnesota, much less another win!
The only way the Vikings haven't scored is on defense, and that
could change this week. The 49ers may not have thrown to Terrell
Owens enough, but when they did the Vikings did a great job of covering
the possibility. Corey Chavous seems to be improving with every
game, and the Falcons don't have the passing game to properly challenge
any NFL team anyway. The Falcons' offense misses Mike Vick like
kids at fat camp miss Hostess. They are incapable of putting together
a consistent, respectable offensive attack. Doug Johnson is a free
agent at the end of the year, and his stocking has fallen off the
charts. Peerless Price has no hope of seeing the ball: Johnson can't
go deep and the double teams don't leave him open anyway. The only
player putting up numbers on this team is Alge Crumpler. The TE
has come into his own as an offensive receiver: he has great hands
and is spectacular after the catch. Too bad it is totally impossible
for a tight end to make up for (a) no running game, (b) a total
lack of defense, and (c) the loss of an offensive stud like Mike
Vick. This game will be almost as ugly as last week's loss to Carolina,
or the loss the week before to Tampa Bay, or the Week 2 loss to
Washington (when the Falcons officially flushed their hopes in the
second half after building a substantial lead in the first).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Gus Frerotte, Randy Moss, Aaron Elling, Moe Williams
2nd String: Onterrio Smith, Jay Feeley, Alge Crumpler, Minnesota
Defense
Prediction: Vikes 37, Falcons
13
Cincinnati (1-3) at Buffalo
(2-2), 1:00 PM
What has happened to the Buffalo Bills? This team looked ready
to dominate the NFL after Weeks 1 & 2. In the last two weeks,
they have played well below their potential. The offense seems
to have suffered due to the loss of Travis Henry, though it is
hard to figure how: Henry was a good scorer, but had earned very
few yards. The inability to get the passing game to flow as it
did in the first two weeks is a mystery. I may be off, but Buffalo
fans may agree with this: point the finger at the coach. The offensive
line has not done quite as good at protecting Bledsoe, but the
Bills seem reluctant to go deep to Moulds, and Moulds is the player
that butters their bread. He's the most underrated receiver in
the NFL, and he can go deep on any and every one. This seemed
to click back into the offensive scheme late in the Philly game:
did anyone else notice how easily the Bills moved downfield on
those pass-laden drives? Though the passing game is key, it will
be helped by the return of Travis Henry (at time of print, it
looks like Henry will be available for the game). Henry is a good
rushing threat, and it is obvious the Bills' coaches seem to open
the air attack up when Henry is on the field (WHY only then, who
knows!). Cincy's defense has improved, but they are still having
troubles getting quarterback pressure (only 4 sacks thus far this
year, one of the lowest sack totals in the NFL). Without that
pressure, Bledsoe should have time to get the ball to Moulds for
deeper yards and, as a result, the Bills should look more like
the team from Weeks 1 & 2.
On the other side of the ball, Marvin Lewis has done some great
things with the Cincy offense. Despite the inconsistent productivity
of Corey Dillon (and health for that matter), the Bengals have
become a passing team. Chad Johnson is one of, if not the, best
young WR's in the game. He's fast becoming a weekly fantasy starter,
and his teammates (like Peter Warrick) are reaping the benefits.
Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Bills are team that thrives
on pass defense. They are currently the third best passing defense
in the NFL, allowing just under 158 passing yards a game and only
2 passing TD's thus far. Takeo Spikes has been the best defensive
free agent signee this year: he can rush the passer, he can stay
back and read the play, and he has a real knack for getting his
hands on the ball. At print time, Corey Dillon's status does not
look good, and if he cannot play the Bengals' will not have the
tools necessary to exploit the Bills' defensive weaknesses. Without
Dillon, the Bills can cover Johnson and Warrick, they can keep
Kitna on his heels all day, and they should return to early season
form.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Travis Henry(Questionable),
Chad Johnson
2nd String: Jon Kitna, Bobby Shaw, Josh Reed, Peter Warrick, Buffalo
Defense
Prediction: Bengals 13, Bills 24
Oakland (2-2) at Chicago
(0-3), 1:00 PM
Here is a barnburner! The Raiders have been a disappointment.
Can someone explain this to me: how does San Diego come into Oakland
with Eric Parker and Kassim Osgood as their primary receivers,
and throw for 187 yards and put up 31 points in a game the Raiders
SHOULD have lost? A win is a win, and the Raider fans will take
it, but if you leave that game with anything but trepidation,
you are lying to yourself. This team is in trouble: the scene
with Gannon yelling at every coach that will listen during Week
3 says it all. This team seems unable to pass consistently. Tim
Brown finally had a game worthy of his talents last week, and
he deserved it: he's been "quietly" yelling for the
ball all year, and though he's not as open as he would like us
all to believe, he is capable of making the tough catch. Gannon
needs to go to his guy more often. Not only did Tim Brown re-emerge
last week, but Doug Jolley found some catches as well. Both of
these players are capable of being top targets, they just need
to get the looks. Charlie Garner has played well, and he should
be able to rack up some nice yards against the struggling Bears'
defense. The Bears are more than vulnerable to large running plays
(Ahman Green AVERAGED, I said AVERAGED, 9.3 yards a carry this
last week) and if Garner can get his carries and make good, the
passing game could take off from there.
The Bears did show they can put up some points this last week:
23 points is nothing shocking, unless you've been fortunate enough
to see the previous Bears' games. Kordell Stewart had a better
game. Too bad they aren't playing college ball, or that option
offense could really do some damage. He is throwing the ball a
bit better, and the running game seems to show flashes here in
there (I was beginning to believe A-Train didn't HAVE a run of
over 10 yards in him, then he broke off a 67 yard TD run). The
Raiders are most vulnerable to a sustained running game: they
give up an average of about 154 rushing yards a game, but they've
only given up 3 runs for over 20 yards. This style of play suits
A-Train best, and it could allow him to find his rhythm, wear
on the defensive line, and break a run or two. IF the Bears can
keep from getting behind early, IF the Bears can give serious
consideration to the running game, and IF the Bears can keep the
Raiders' pass attack respectable, they could make a run at the
upset. It's a long shot, but expect the Bears to keep this one
close.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Sebastian Janikowski
2nd String: Rich Gannon, Tim Brown, Kordell Stewart, Anthony Thomas,
Desmond Clark
Prediction: Raiders 17, Bears 13
Arizona (1-3) at Dallas
(2-1), 1:00 PM
This game is ripe with side stories: Emmitt returns to Dallas,
Parcells versus Emmitt, team on the rise versus team going nowhere.
Ok, maybe its not so exciting to the average fan, but this game
could be an all-out pass feast: both these teams have thrived
on the passing of their QB's. Surprisingly, the Cowboys are the
6th best passing offense so far this year, averaging 236 passing
yards a game. For Quincy Carter, a QB all but left for dead, the
turnaround is amazing. The weapons have been there, but Carter's
mental game was always lacking. Parcells seems to have turned
this kid around, and he's throwing with maximum confidence. Although
breaking those passes into the end zone has been a little elusive,
they pass gets them downfield and set up an improving running
game. Troy Hambrick had his best game last week, and the major
difference is in the point of attack. Parcells had talked with
Hambrick earlier in the week and it was decided to let Hambrick
try something new: run between the tackles, attack the line of
scrimmage, and don't rely so much on your "speed." Hambrick's
production improved, and if he can keep this growth up, he may
become a regular fantasy consideration. He'll be important this
weekend, but he is likely to play second fiddle to Antonio Bryant
and Joey Galloway. Zona is beyond weak in the defensive backfield,
and look for Dallas to capitalize on the horrible numbers for
the Card's pass defense (giving up an average of 225 yards a game,
having given up 9 TD's so far this year through the air, and allowing
opponents to complete an average of 62% of their passes).
Arizona's offensive strategy seems to be pretty simple: lets go
out and try to pass for more yards and TD's than our opponent.
This doesn't work too often, but they can make some games pretty
interesting. Another apparent problem for the Cardinals is the
venue: if they play at home, they seem to enjoy better production
than on the road. Many gamblers looked at the 12-point spread
in last week's game with St. Louis and jumped on the Cardinals.
Then the Birds came out and laid an egg, appearing like a completely
different team than the one that beat the Packers at home a week
before. Emmitt is a shadow of his old self: he still has some
yards and TD's in him, but not nearly enough to carry the team.
Anquan Boldin is the real standout on this team: the rookie wideout
has shown great skills and consistency. Bryant Johnson has only
been in the lineup a couple of weeks, but his potential is there
as well. These two young bucks will need there game, as Dallas'
vulnerability to the pass is the best point of attack. Dallas'
potential for good pass D is there, but they have under performed
and suffered through some rough injuries. They can't get pressure
on the QB, and Jeff Blake can kill you if you give him time to
find the open man. Don't expect Emmitt to do too much versus his
old team, and the other RB in the game could be the difference.
Both teams will pass plenty, both could pass effectively, but
only Dallas will run the ball. Give 'em the edge for that (and
the fact Cundiff looks like he could kick it through the uprights
from Sweden).
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Quincy Carter, Antonio Bryant, Anquan Boldin, Dallas
Defense, Billy Cundiff, Jason Witten
2nd String: Troy Hambrick, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Joey Galloway
Prediction: Cardinals 17, Cowboys 23
Seattle (3-0) at Green
Bay (2-2), 1:00 PM
Seattle returns from their bye week with a perfect record, all
of their players in good standing (at least at time of print),
and ready to attack a less-than-able defense. Matt Hasselback
has enjoyed a great season thus far, despite a lack of big numbers
(256 yards is his best game in Week 3, and he didn't break 200
in the other two) and also despite lead wideout Koren Robinson's
lack of activity (he only has 151 receiving yards TOTAL thus far).
Shaun Alexander has also been solid, and his performance this
week will be the key to another Seahawks' victory. The Packer's
defense isn't so good: they are giving up an average of about
118 yards a game (and when you consider they've played Arizona,
Chicago, and Detroit, that number becomes GLARING). This team
is RIPE for a nice RB like Alexander. They also give up a little
less than 220 yards passing a game. Not so good, but Packer fans
can say they have 8 sacks thus far so they should be able to pressure
Hasselback. Only problem is the Hawks have a much better offensive
line than, say, Chicago, Detroit, and Arizona! Let's put it in
black & white: before this last week, the Bears had put up
point totals of 7 points versus San Francisco (a BAD defense)
and 13 points versus Minnesota (a better-than-average defense),
and Green Bay gave up 23 to them.
The big player for the Pack this year has been Ahman Green. He's
a major player, one of the NFL's best RB's. When he gets his carries,
he can light up any team for good yards and scores. Seattle will
make him public enemy number 1 for this game, and they will employ
the same "bend but don't break" style they've used so
far this year. Although the Seahawks give up an average of 90
rushing yards a game, they've only allowed one rushing TD and
zero carries for 20 yards or more. You can run, but you won't
get far. Seattle's pass defense isn't a NFL standout either: they
give up about 227 yards a game, only have 4 sacks, and allow opponents
to complete an average of about 60% of their passes. However,
they have 7 interceptions. Ken Lucas (who?) & Marcus Trufant
(Seattle's #1 pick) have done a great job on coverage, and they
will give Brett Favre fits. Ahman Green will get his carries,
but if he wants to get his yards (and he NEEDS to if Green Bay
hopes to win), he'll be in for a fight: Seattle will play good
coverage D with LB's spying on Green, letting him get his carries,
but not letting him average 9.3 yards a carry (ie last week versus
Chicago). The Pack defense isn't up to this challenge, and Seattle's
offense is more than capable of taking full advantage.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Shaun Alexander, Koren Robinson, Matt Hasselback,
Seattle Defense
2nd String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Darrell Jackson, Donald
Driver
Prediction: Seahawks 28, Packers 13
Denver (4-0) at Kansas
City (4-0), 1:00 PM
Want to hear the biggest lie in football reporting? When you hear
reporters say, "Well, one thing Denver learned from that
close call with Detroit is that they can win close games,"
or, "they can win without their best running back,"
or, "KC learned they can win against a tough defense."
All lies. Know what they learned? Here is what Denver learned:
their defense is vulnerable not only to the pass but also to a
lack-luster running back like Shawn Bryson, if their kicker wasn't
on they would lose to THE Detroit Lions, the passing game is just
a little dependent on a real running threat, Mike Anderson is
not the starting rusher for a reason (Portis would have torn up
the Detroit defense), and Shannon Sharpe is possibly the best
receiver the Broncos have ever had. Here is what Kansas City learned:
thank god for Dante Hall, Priest Holmes may not be "stoppable"
but is somewhat "containable," Tony Gonzalez is still
the best receiver they have, their defense is for good but vulnerable
to a good RB like Jamal Lewis (even when Lewis is the top target
of the defense), and they better step it up a notch if they want
to continue being referred to as "the NFL's best team."
This game is going to be awesome! Both these teams have great
running games. Both teams have good pass offenses. Both teams
have better than average defensive units with some weaknesses
that suit the opponents' strengths. Every week there are games
that feature two teams that are evenly matched, but rarely are
those teams both without a loss.
Here are the main reasons for my prediction Priest Holmes, the
game is in Kansas City, and a gut feeling the Denver defense is
a little overrated. Baltimore scoring 10 points versus KC last
week is a pretty respectable number for the Chiefs' defense; Detroit
scoring 16 versus Denver is not so respectable (not to mention
the Denver offense, as loaded with talent as it is, only managed
20 points against what may be the worse defense in the NFL, with
or without Portis). Arrowhead is one of the NFL's toughest battlegrounds
for visiting teams. Denver can never count on an easy win in this
venue. I don't know if there is a defense in the NFL (currently)
that can stop Priest. Denver does have some hope: their defense
may get both Darryl Gardner and Lee Flowers back this week. This
could definitely help their squad. However, it seems like KC may
have their game rolling. There is this small amount of worry in
Denver: Jake could implode at any moment, Portis is playing a
little soft, the defense is a little inconsistent. Not that KC
doesn't have problems: you don't want to win too many games on
a kickoff return. Here's the final stat I'll give you: Kansas
City has racked up 10 interceptions already this season (second
most in the NFL), compared to 4 for Denver.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Clinton Portis(Questionable),
Kansas City Defense
2nd String: Trent Green, Jake Plummer, Ashlie Lelie, Shannon Sharpe
Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 31
Tennessee (3-1) at New
England (2-2), 1:00 PM
If you look over the box scores from the Titans season so far,
you can come to one fairly obvious conclusion. Although they struggled
a bit with the Raiders in Week 1, the big loss to Indy was the
fault of the Colts' defense (which has also beaten up New Orleans
and Jacksonville). This Titans' team is capable of big games,
and Steve McNair is putting in his bid for the MVP trophy he feels
he's been cheated out of all these years. The Patriot's defense
is his next victim: the Pat's are riddled with injuries and struggling
to keep teams at bay. Now, the New England defense has kept the
number fairly respectable, especially versus the pass. So, if
the Titans want to grab this game by the horns, their best bet
is Eddie George on the ground. Eddie hasn't been a very strong
fantasy player. He did put up 100 yards versus New Orleans two
weeks ago, but that has been his strongest game yet. If he can't
run all over the Saints, it's hard to believe he'll run wild on
the Pats. Therefore, look for McNair to go airborne with the ball
early and often. He's got his best receiver corps since he started
in the NFL: Derrick Mason is pure money, Drew Bennett is looking
better with every game, Tyrone Calico has got tons of potential,
Justin McCareins has been much better than expected, & TE
Erron Kinney has turned into a great receiver. Any of these guys
can step up and be the man at any given time, and that is a problem
for the Patriots depleted backfield.
New England has shown some signs of life on offense. Tom Brady
has played well overall and has lead his team back to make some
games very interesting (not to mention lighting up the Eagles,
which may be easier done than said). Kevin Faulk has shown some
strength as the starting RB. The problem for New England will
be the Titans defense being so solid. They are a little weak versus
the pass, but with Kearse and Carter healthy and kicking, every
QB is one hit away from a trip to the ER. Brady will need his
A game to give the Pats a chance. Brady has the arm to keep it
close, but McNair and company are too solid, the Titans' defense
is too fast and strong, and if Eddie George can find some productivity
then the Titans should move on to 4 & 1.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Steve McNair, Titans Defense, Derrick Mason
2nd String: Erron Kinney, Tom Brady, Drew Bennett, Eddie George,
Christian Fauria, Adam Vinatieri
Prediction: Titans 23, Patriots 18
Miami (2-1) at NY Giants
(2-1), 1:00 PM
Two well-rested teams coming off their bye week, two teams at
2 & 1, two teams with little else in common besides these
facts. The Giants are a team capable of big time offensive games.
Kerry Collins, Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard and company currently
have the 4th best passing offense in the league, averaging 238
passing yards a game. Collins has thrown 6 TD's, only 2 interceptions,
and been sacked only 5 times. They can throw. When Tiki holds
on to the ball (he's battled some fumble problems for most of
his career), he's been solid and even spectacular at times (he
lit up Washington for 126 yards and the Rams for 146). They can
get it going in a hurry, and Miami had better step it up or they
will become victim #3. The Fins' rush defense is awesome thus
far: #2 in the NFL, giving up an average of 63 yards rushing a
game, and have yet to give up either a rushing TD or a single
run of 20 yards or more. The pass defense is another story: giving
up an average of 236 pass yards a game (6th worst in the NFL),
and though they've given up only 2 passing TD's they have only
4 interceptions and 5 sacks (not good for a team with last year's
sack leader, Jason Taylor). The QB pressure is going to have to
be better this week for Miami: if you want to beat the Giants,
you've got to rattle Collins. If he's allowed to get comfortable,
he'll hook it up all day with Toomer and make the game seem 10
times longer for the opposing team.
On offense, the Fins are all about two players: Ricky Williams
and Chris Chambers. Ricky carried the ball 42 times in Miami's
last game, so he deserved the week off. He's one of the top 2
RB's in the league (you could argue for Jamal Lewis, but I'd rate
'em Holmes #1, Ricky #2, and Lewis #3 right now). Chris Chambers
has been great in his time this year. He has great hands and know
how to score. Unfortunately, he relies on Jay Fiedler to get him
the ball. With Ricky Williams, all he does is take the handoff.
He can do it out of the receiver role, but his best work is done
from behind the line of scrimmage. He's going to have his work
cut out for him this week: the Giants may give up an average of
90 yards rushing a game (which could translate into 120 yards
for Ricky), but they have given up only 1 rushing TD this year,
and only 1 run of 20 yards or greater. The points are going to
have to come from Jay Fielder in this one: the Giants have the
worst pass defensive ranking in the NFL, giving up over 310 yards
passing a game (in the interest of fairness, they've played three
pass heavy teams: Washington, Dallas, and the Rams). Here is the
key to the Giants' pass defense: they may give up a ton of yards,
but they've racked up 13 sacks (2nd best in the NFL) and given
up only 3 passing TD's. Bend (a lot) but don't break, to an extreme!
If they can get to Fiedler (and they can) and keep him rattled
(and they will) and keep Chambers out of the end zone (they'll
give it a good shot), then the Giants can keep Ricky respectable.
Keeping the Dolphins to the ground game, they can score more than
the Fins with the pass attack, and the Giants should find another
win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Amani Toomer, Chris Chambers, Ricky Williams, Jeremy
Shockey, Kerry Collins, Giants Defense, Matt Bryant
2nd String: Randy McMichael, Ike Hilliard, Jay Fiedler
Prediction: Dolphins 14, Giants 23
New Orleans (1-3) at Carolina
(3-0), 1:00 PM
The Saints are in trouble. They are struggling to win games, they
are struggling to keep games from getting out of hand. Now, in
fairness and to apologize to the Saints fan that emailed me this
week (you know who you are), the Saints are battling a large number
of injuries on defense right now. They are battling with a rag-tag
group of defensive players that are having A LOT of trouble keeping
teams out of the end zone, and it could end up costing Jim Haslett
his job. It makes it tough for the entire team, but the offense
has to be under some suspicion. Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte
Stallworth, Jerome Pathon: this group is capable of better numbers
(averaging 204 yards a game as a group, with just 5 passing TD's
thus far). Deuce McAllister has kept up his end: he's the workhorse
of the team and is doing his job. His job would be easier with
a better passing game, and the entire team would be better if
it spent more time on the field. Carolina won't make this easy,
and they won't make the time the Saints' offense does spend on
the field enjoyable. The Panthers have one of the best defensive
units in the NFL right now. They worked Atlanta last week. They
give up yards, no question, but they don't give up touchdowns.
This is a problem for the Saints: not only will Carolina keep
them out of the end zone, but the Saints are having trouble trying
to get in the end zone anyway.
The Panthers are starting to put things together offensively too.
Stephen Davis is a solid running game by himself, and has been
the rock of this team thus far. Jake Delhomme has plenty of potential,
and though his start has been a little rocky, his talent is showing
through. He's not a fantasy stud, but he's a solid NFL starter
with rising stock. His receivers are coming together nicely as
well. Steve Smith is an awesome return man, and his skills as
a receiver improve with every game. New Orleans will have a tough
time again this week defensively. Carolina will continue to lean
on Davis, running the ball and using the strong runs to set up
passing attempts. Right now, the Panthers are all about defense,
but the offense is improving and will get some good opportunities
against the struggling Saints' D.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Panther Defense, Stephen Davis, Deuce McAllister
2nd String: Joe Horn, Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith
Prediction: Saints 10, Panthers 22
San Diego (0-4) at Jacksonville
(0-4), 4:05 PM
What a heart breaker for Charger fans last week! They finally
get a game in which Tomlinson controls the ball, runs for mad
yards and scores a couple of TD's, and then they just flush it
all away with horrible defense. Just horrible. The offense has
started to show signs of life. Tomlinson, despite a lack of carries
due to early point deficits, has become the league's third leading
rusher. Drew Brees is throwing the ball well, despite the lack
of effort from his best receiver (David Boston) and an under performing
offensive line. They will need their best games again this week
versus Jacksonville. The Jags have seen plenty of running attempts,
but are only giving up an average of 87 yards rushing a game (they
have given up 5 rushing TD's, not such a great number). Brees
will have the best opportunity, as the Jags' pass defense is their
weakness (giving up 223 yards a game, and have surrendered 8 passing
TD's). Eric Parker has emerged as the team's most reliable receiver,
but the other WR's are going to need to step up their production
and will get some nice looks in this one. However, although the
passing game could be the Jags' soft spot, expect another heavy
dose of Tomlinson. The kid is the goods, and he can ring any team
up for 100+ yards at any time.
The Bolts' defense is the real trouble with this team. They just
allow too much scoring, and the Jags need to take advantage. Fred
Taylor is the main weapon, and rightfully so. He's run well against
all comers this year, he can catch the ball and do damage after
the reception, and he's the best weapon for rookie QB Byron Leftwich
(at time of print, Marc Brunell's status is still uncertain and
Leftwich has taken the first string snaps in practice). No matter
who throws the rock for Jacksonville, they will throw plenty:
the Bolts have given up the majority of their scores to the passing
game. However, the Jags should use a balanced attack: San Diego's
defense is poor all around, giving up 150 rushing yards a game
and 217 passing yards as well. Although the defense is poor, if
Tomlinson can carry the team again and produce as he's capable,
expect the game to go to the Bolts. It's a gamble, but the Bolts
have to win sometime, and this game is a prime opportunity. Tomlinson
is capable of carrying the ball 30+ times, controlling the clock,
and keeping the Jags' suspect defense on the field. Expect Taylor
to get his numbers, but give the edge to the young stud Tomlinson.
He's that good.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, Drew Brees
2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Eric Parker, David Boston
Prediction: Chargers 20, Jaguars 16
Detroit (1-3) at San
Francisco (1-3), 4:15 PM
The Lions have a great passing game. Too bad they don't have the
defense to match. They gave the Broncos, a solid NFL team, a real
run for their money last week and almost pulled out a win. This
team could upset almost anyone in the NFL this year, and its all
due to Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers. The tandem has become
one of the league's most potent scoring threats. Rogers can get
open against anyone, Harrington can heave the rock as well as
anyone in the NFL, and the two together make Detroit a viable
scoring threat from anywhere on the field. The 49ers defense will
have their hands full. Their numbers look ok, but considering
their competition (those numbers are skewed by the first week's
big win over Chicago) its fair to say this defense is not very
tough. They are vulnerable to the long passing game, and if Detroit
can protect Harrington and let him make plays, the Lions should
score. Shawn Bryson has also emerged as the lead rusher for the
Lions, and he has been able to keep teams on guard just enough
to open up the passing game. He'll need another good effort this
week, though he can't be expected to do too much. It's all about
the pass for Detroit.
The 49ers are struggling to produce offensively. Terrell Owens'
status for this game is in question: after two straight weeks
for yelling fits and verbal attacks both on the sideline and in
the media, there is talk that Owens may sit this one with a suspension.
Don't believe it. This is the NFL, and winning rules over all.
The 49ers have a golden opportunity to throw the ball in this
game: Detroit's defense is just bad. Garrison Hearst and Kevan
Barlow will have good chances to run (Detroit's rush defense is
one of the NFL's worst, especially vulnerable to the big run),
but the real threat for the Niners is the passing tandem of Garcia
and Owens. Though they are not on good terms, expect them to go
to the air early and often, testing the defense and stretching
the field. Detroit gives up an average of over 250 passing yards
a game, and if given his way Owens could rack up that many yards
by himself. The Lions could keep this game close with Harrington
and Rogers, but Garcia and Owens will counter with their Pro Bowl
efforts and should finally gather a win.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Charles Rogers, Terrell Owens, Joey Harrington
2nd String: Garrison Hearst, Jeff Garcia, Jason Hanson, Mikhael
Ricks
Prediction: Lions 24, 49ers 28
Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia
(1-2), 4:15 PM
The Redskins have to be one of the biggest surprises in the NFL.
No one would have guessed they would be 4 & 0 at this point.
Spurrier has changed his game plan: he runs the ball! Although
the mixed game plan has helped, give Patrick Ramsey all the credit
he deserves. He's one of the NFL's leading passers, and he's earned
a great chemistry with receiving weapons Laveranues Coles and
Rod Gardner. The three together give the Skins a viable scoring
threat from all over the field. They can throw long, they can
make plays on short passes, and they can eat up yards faster than
you can spell Laveranues. The running tandem of Trung Candidate
and Ladell Betts has been a good mix, and kept defenses honest
enough to allow Ramsey and company to make plays. The Eagles'
defense is definitely hurting: plagued with injuries, they are
always vulnerable to a good passing game. Expect the Skins to
take to the air again this week: Philly doesn't have a good enough
back to cover both Coles and Gardner. The Eagles are giving up
over 250 yards passing a game, and Washington will look to get
to that number plus some.
On defense, the Redskins have struggled a bit, especially considering
the vast amount of talent on the squad. Although they have kept
the average pass yards respectable (207), they have struggled
to keep pressure on the QB's and keep the scoring down. The Eagles
will lean on Donovan McNabb again this week. He led them to their
first win last week in a tough game with Buffalo, setting McNabb
free on the ground to rush at will. The game plan won't change
too much this week. The Eagles' rediscovered the importance of
the running game last week: before the win, they had run 3 pass
plays for every rush they had attempted. Not so last week, and
it won't be so this week. The Eagles have to play a clock control
game to keep their defense fresh and off the field. If the Redskins
get their opportunities, they could eat this rag tag squad up
in a hurry. The passing game is still struggling for the Eagles.
McNabb still struggled to throw solid passes and hit open men
last week, though he did improve. The pass is not McNabb's strong
suit: he needs to use his size and speed to create on the run.
Brian Westbrook was the leading rusher for the Eagles last week,
but until he's able to do it for multiple games and prove his
abilities, expect McNabb to be the leader of both the pass and
rush, and that won't be enough to keep the Redskins' defense at
bay. The passing game for the Skins is too solid, the defense
for the Eagles is too battered, and the Skins should find another
win this week.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Laveranues Coles, Patrick Ramsey, Donovan McNabb
2nd String: Redskin Defense, John Hall, Rod Gardner, David Akers
Prediction: Redskins 27, Eagles 19
Cleveland (1-3) at Pittsburgh
(2-2), 8:30 PM
The Cleveland Browns are a team struggling to find their groove.
They've lost starter Kelly Holcomb, but it must be nice to have
Tim Couch on the sideline for relief. Couch played well last week,
but he wasn't enough. The struggling running game, namely Willie
Green, has been the real disappointment of this team. Green has
yet to break 100 yards in a game, and much of this can be blamed
on the poor play calling of the Browns. Many in the NFL have called
the run attack of the Browns "predictable," and this
is true. Pittsburgh is coming in off a tough loss to the Titans,
and the Browns are likely to become their whipping boy. The Pitt
D is tougher than they showed last week, and they will be all
over Couch and Green this week. Pittsburgh loves to attack the
QB, and this could spell trouble for the Browns. Porter, Gildon,
and Bell are going to look to set up camp in the backfield, and
this will cause major problems for both the pass and run attacks
for Cleveland.
The offense for Pittsburgh is pretty potent. Maddox is the NFL's
leading passer coming into the week, and with his receivers its
no mystery how they do it. Burress has become a weekly fantasy
starter, and his consistency is amazing. Hines Ward is playing
like his usual self. The running game has seen good plays from
both Amos Zereoue and Jerome Bettis, and the two together can
give any team headaches. Although Maddox has battled with turnovers,
he won't be deterred. The Browns do have a solid pass defense,
but the best pass defenses in the league could fall victim to
this Pro Bowl squad. The Steelers will go the air, they will go
deep and short, they will pass on any down, and they will be successful.
Look for the Steelers to have a nice mixed game plan, but the
passing of Maddox and the receiving of Burress and Ward will be
too much for the Browns. Though this is normally a great game,
expect the Steelers to role in this one.
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Plaxico Burress, Amos Zereoue, Tommy Maddox, Pittsburgh
Defense
2nd String: Hines Ward, Jay Riemersma
Prediction: Browns 9, Steelers 24
Monday, October 6
Indianapolis (4-0) at
Tampa Bay (2-1), 9:00 PM
Although the Denver-KC game is getting top bill from most in the
NFL this week, I feel this is the best match up for the fans.
Offensive powerhouse versus defensive stronghold. Tampa has the
best pass defense in the land, allowing only 106 yards passing
a game. That is an amazing number, and it will be tested by the
air attack of Peyton Manning. The Colts have had plenty of success
throwing the ball this year. Both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne
are good receiver, and rookie TE Dallas Clark is proving to be
worthy of the starting role. The wild card for the Colts is Edge
James. James missed last weeks offensive romp due to a back injury,
and he is still listed as questionable for this game. The Colts
need James this week: Tampa's defensive weakness is versus the
run. They are giving up about 107 yards rushing a game, and they
don't give up too much scoring on either the run or pass. James
would allow the Colts to control the clock, eat up yards, and
take advantage of what the Bucs would be willing to give up defensively.
If James doesn't play, it could be tough go for the Colts. Though
Manning could start connecting at any time, the Bucs will play
their normal game, and the chances of the Colts going deep for
quick scores is pretty slim. Without James, the Colts will have
to rely on defense.
The Colts defense is very good, much better than expected. Dungy
has his boys playing well, allowing only 171 yards passing a game.
The real number to watch is the scoring: the Colts have given
up only 4 TD's this year. The Bucs have struggled at times to
put up any offense, much less touchdowns. Though Pittman has played
better than expected, the running game is sporadic at best. Brad
Johnson is a decent QB, but the passing game is also struggling
for consistency. With the loss of Joe Jurevicius and the lack
of production from Keyshawn, the main WR has been Keenan McCardell.
I know Warren Sapp has become an offensive threat, but don't count
on him to carry "the load" (no pun, well, ok, pun intended).
The Bucs have to find a way to score points, and they won't have
an easy go against this tough Indy defense. The loss of Dwight
Freeney has been big, yet the team has performed well without
his talents. Freeney may return for this game (he's Questionable),
and if he does the Bucs mission will be that much tougher. This
game will actually be a defensive battle, and the result lies
in the hands of Edge James. If James can go, my predicted score
looks good to me. If he can't, reverse them! This game will be
awesome, at least for those of us who love defensive football!
Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Edgerrin James(Questionable), Indy Defense, Tampa
Bay Defense, Dallas Clark, Mike Vanderjagt
2nd String: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Keenan McCardell
Prediction: Colts 13, Bucs 6
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