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Game Previews - Week 9, 2003



By Bryan Douglass | 10/30/03

WEEK 9
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Sunday, 4:00 PM EST
SD at CHI CIN at ARI
OAK at DET PIT at SEA
IND at MIA PHI at ATL
NYG at NYJ STL at SF
NO at TB WAS at DAL
JAX at BAL Sunday - 8:30 PM EST
CAR at HOU GB at MIN
  Monday - 9:00 PM EST
  NE at DEN

Bye Week: Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City
Last Week's Projections: (10-4) 71.4%
Season's Projections: (78-38) 67.2%

San Diego (1-6) at Chicago (2-5) 1:00 PM
From one barnburner to the next for Chicago! Last week, they got a hold of what may be the new "worst team in football," the Detroit Lions, and now they get another team with one win. Hey, I just saw LaDainian Tomlinson actually get a goal line rushing attempt (and he scored, as he would 90% of the time, given the opportunity), and I'm taking that as the first sign of the apocalypse. There is one major difference in the two teams: unlike the Lions, the Bolts have one player that can take a game over and win it in Tomlinson. Too bad nothing else for this team is worthy of notice. Their passing game is vominous. Seriously, it makes me ill to watch them, and seeing as I'm one of the 15 people that suffer through watching their games you might blame me for their lack of effort. You would think the Chargers' faithful would be yelling for Doug Flutie, but they are all afraid that when he gets sacked (which would likely be his second play from scrimmage) he will turn into dust. OK, enough bad jokes, and please accept my apologies. It is fair to assume that if Schottenheimer wises up and gives the ball to Tomlinson, then the Chargers could win this game. The Bears' defense is nothing to brag about, and they give up an average of 144 yards rushing a game. They have players, but not enough to stop most NFL teams from moving the chains. The two biggest problems for Chicago's defense (besides the injuries) are Urlacher's inability to avoid the double and triple teams and the failure to produce a consistent pass rush. If Brees can pull it together after the Miami beating and take advantage of the soft blitz, if he can get some help from his receivers, and (it seems like I say this in EVERY Charger review!) if Tomlinson gets the ball at least 25 to 30 times, the Chargers could pull out win #2.

How many of you are wondering if the Bears are actually better with Chris Chandler at QB? They sure seem to play better offensively, and this has been done (for the most part) without Anthony Thomas and Marty Booker. Now, for the real question: how many of you are wondering HOW Chandler has gotten through 2 whole games without getting a concussion? This is being taken as the second official sign of the apocalypse. Chandler has done a pretty decent job, and has many Chicago fans pondering how long will Kordell be suffering from his "swollen leg?" I believe this team would have won last week with Stewart or Chandler, and this San Diego defense isn't much better. Ranked 22nd versus the pass and 25th versus the rush, the Chargers have to find a way to stop the bleeding. One good thing from last week's defeat was the defensive performance versus Ricky Williams, holding the Predator to 69 yards and keeping him out of the end zone. Chicago had to field a third string RB last week, as both Anthony Thomas and Adrian Peterson were unable to play. The Bears would love to have Thomas back on the field this week, as he had just started to regain his rookie form before suffering a foot injury. At time of print, it appears the A-Train will play, but no one knows if he'll be 100% or if he'll be able to crack holes in the Bolt defense (because the offensive line isn't going to do it for him). This won't be a high scoring game, but you have to give the edge to San Diego for Tomlinson alone. Assuming LT gets the ball, and that is a big assumption, the Bolts should be able to control this game and score more than enough to keep the Bears at bay. It's not going to be defensive, it's not going to be pretty, but take the Chargers in a close one.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Marty Booker (Questionable), Anthony Thomas (Questionable)

2nd String: Drew Brees, David Boston, Kordell Stewart/Chris Chandler, Dez White, Paul Edinger

Prediction: Bolts 24, Bears 18

Oakland (2-5) at Detroit (1-6) 1:00 PM
Welcome to Game of the Century, Take 2 (see Bolts versus Bears for Take 1). Who could ever had guessed we would be blessed with two powerful matches like these in only one week? I haven't felt this spoiled since Channel 9 decided to air "What's Happening?" twice a day (that's for you Rerun, rest in peace). Oakland did surprise two weeks ago in keeping the KC game much closer than expected, coming within 1 yard of forcing OT. The odd thing was the offensive charge was lead by backup QB Marques Tuisosopo in relief of an injured Rich Gannon. Gannon is out for a couple more weeks, so Tuisosopo has a nice game against the league's worst defense to mold his quarterback controversy. Now, dethroning the reigning MVP won't be that easy, but with some help from newly returned Jerry Porter and Charlie Garner, the Raiders should look much better this week. Simply put, Detroit currently ranks XXXX in scoring defense, allowing XXXX points a game; they rank XXXX versus the pass, XXXX versus the run, have given up XXXX TD's, XXXX. If Oakland can't get the offense flowing against this team, they won't get it flowing at all. Getting Porter back is much bigger for this team than we can imagine. Without Porter, this team has been void of a true deep threat and Gannon was without his primary weapon. Porter is a great WR with top-notch skills, and he'll get more than a few chances to showcase against this horrendous Detroit defense.

On the other hand, you have a Lions team that has lost their #1 offensive weapon. I listen to more of sports radio than the FCC, I watch more football TV than both my kids watch Nickelodeon, and I read more articles, columns, and websites than you guys read letters in Penthouse, and I have yet to hear anyone suggest how important rookie WR Charles Rogers has become for this team. Granted, this team isn't good by any stretch of the imagination, but at least with Rogers you had a great WR with the ability to make big time plays and get the ball in the end zone. Without Rogers, the Lions would be winless, and until he returns they are likely to stay that way. Joey Harrington is an amazing talent, yet he has taken so much blame for this horrendous team. Fact: the offensive line is beyond help. Fact: the defense is even farther down that road and is looking at the O-line in the rearview mirror. Fact: the running game would be served better with Rashaan Salaam, a bag of weed, and some rolling papers (Who would have guessed the loss of RB James Stewart at the start of the season would be such a big deal?). Fact: without Charlie Rogers you cannot name ONE player on this team (other than the QB, who can't do it alone) that will make opposing defenses worry. Steve Mariucci is a great coach, but he can't make lemonade out of, well, rotten persimmons, and he can't turn this team into a winner without some MAJOR work. Look for Detroit to take another tough loss, look for Oakland to enjoy a much-needed offensive boom, and don't take any of it too seriously.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Marques Tuisosopo, Charlie Garner, Jerry Porter (Questionable), Sebastian Janikowski

2nd String: Tim Brown, Doug Jolley, Joey Harrington, Jerry Rice, Shawn Bryson, Mikhael Ricks (Questionable), Jason Hanson

Prediction: Raiders 27, Lions 10

Indianapolis (6-1) at Miami (5-2) 1:00 PM
Now THIS is a match up worthy of couch time! Wait…. every game is worthy of some couch time. I'd watch paint drying versus grass growing if they strapped on shoulder pads, came with a nice set of cheerleaders, and threw it on the tube. But this game is getting the new title of "Tivo" worthy. Indy comes into this game as part of the upper tier of the NFL. The offense is the definition of productive: when they are 100% they sport 3 of the sport's top talents (Manning, James, & Harrison), and even when they are more like 78% (missing James) they are more than capable of hanging a big number on your defense. They will have their work cut out for them this week as they face what has become one of the league's best defensive units. It's no secret they are currently ranked #1 versus the rush (74 yards a game, only 3 rushing TD's allowed thus far). The defensive numbers versus the pass aren't so solid: opponents throw for an average of 230 yards a game. However, dive deeper into the book my friends: only 4 passing TD's allowed thus far (tied for 2nd lowest number in the league), with 13 interceptions (tied for 3rd most in the NFL) and 17 sacks to boot. They may give up some yards, but they make you work and gamble for 'em. How often do you see a guy like Patrick Surtain get Player of the Game honors on MNF? Now, all that said, Indy is going to take their shots. Tomlinson found some success last week versus this defense, and James will be key in this game. If he can get yards on the ground and keep the defense guessing, the passing game could get some openings. I don't know if anyone in the league can cover Marvin Harrison. I do know Manning can get him the ball no matter where he is on the field. Indy ranks #2 for scoring in the league, racking up about 30 points a game. Miami has the best defense for preventing scoring, allowing opponents only 12 points a game. Something has to give.

The key for this game is going to be scoring (duh). However, I don't mean it as simply as it sounds. Take a look at the previous games for these teams. Miami has been solid: they don't score a lot (averaging 20 points a game), but only Houston & New England have hit them for more than 10 points (Houston for 21, NE for 19). Indy has given up PLENTY of points: they give up an average of only a little over 18 points a game, but they've let the Saints and Texans hit for 21, the Bucs throw up 35 on 'em, and the Panthers rack up 23. Not as impressive as Miami. However, let's flip that coin: Indy can hit you up for some big points (33 versus Tennessee, 38 on Tampa Bay, 30 on Houston, and a double 5 on New Orleans). Indy has shown they can score on a tough defense; the question is can their defense keep Miami's score low. The Colts give up an average of 18 points a game, a very respectable number, especially for a team that scores so much. They are more vulnerable to the run: they keep teams to about 185 yards passing a game, but allow about 131 yards rushing a game. HOWEVER, much like Miami, they don't give up rushing TD's too often (only 4 this year). Defensively, these teams are actually more closely matched than you might guess. Sure, Indy gives up plenty of rushing yards, but when it counts they've been solid. Here is what you need to consider: are Ricky Williams' recent struggles going to continue? Look at his last 4 games: he hasn't broken 100 yards in that span, and scored only twice. Say what you like, I know teams are taking the fight to the Predator, but he could have lit San Diego up this last week and failed to do so. Miami is coming into the game with an unknown passing game: Brian Griese has one game under his belt with this team, and it was against what may be the worst defense in the NFL, and Indy has the defensive talent to keep him down. If Ricky can't run, then the Fins won't swim. Normally, the consensus will tell you to go with the dominant defense. However, in this case, Miami has yet to face an offense with this much firepower. Miami's wins don't impress me: Jacksonville, Jets, Giants, Buffalo, and San Diego. A group of teams, none of which strikes fear in anyone, and all of which rank in the bottom half of the scoring ranks of the NFL. Miami has faced one solid team (I'm discounting the first week loss to Houston by the way, as I don't know what team that was wearing the Fins' uni's that game!), and they lost (New England). Indy has shown they can score on a good defense; Miami hasn't shown they can do the same. Take Indy, but they may not score as much as you might hope fantasy heads.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Peyton Manning, Edge James, Marvin Harrison, Ricky Williams, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael

2nd String: Brian Griese, Indy Defense, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark (Questionable), Marcus Pollard, Mike Vanderjagt, Miami Defense

Prediction: Colts 26, Fins 17

NY Giants (3-4) at NY Jets (2-5) 1:00 PM
Just when you've given up on the Giants, they come out and ruin your week by beating the undefeated Vikings, at Minnesota, in a high scoring game, and there are SO many things wrong with all of it! How does that happen? Mark it down: one more sign of the apocalypse! It is common knowledge that a team that turns the ball over too much is likely to lose more than they win. The Giants are the poster team for this. If Kerry Collins comes out and throws a few picks, the whole team looks awful and it seems to have an effect on all the other Giant players. If he can throw well and rack up some yards, the team looks completely different. It's fair to say the Giants' D is capable of great things and can keep their team in the running. However, if the passing game isn't working this team struggles to win. Even when the passing game is working and getting yards, Collins can blow it all up with a couple of picks. You look at the box scores, and you wonder "What the heck? The Giants had the leading passer, leading rusher, leading receiver, yet they lost by 16?!" (see Week 5). Let's take a look at the Jets' defense: believe it or not, they have the #1 ranked passing D in the land, allowing only 153 yards passing a game and having allowed only 4 passing TD's thus far. Sounds like Collins may have another rough one ahead; however, the Jets do not have a larger number for interceptions (only 5). But then you look at the sacks: 26, the most in the NFL. How many of you would have guessed THAT?! QB pressure allows the defense to do so much, and restricts the opposing offense from executing. Give the edge to the Jets' D here, but keep an eye on the injury list. John Abraham, one of the league's best defensive ends, left last week's game with an apparent leg injury. It sounds like he is out of this game: the Jets should still pressure Collins, but they may not take advantage as well without Abraham.

Is it just me or did Chad Pennington return much more quickly than expected? Color me impressed: I've really liked this kid since he took over for Vinny, and now I like him even more. He's mentally tough, and he's apparently got the physical side to match. He did seem a little rusty last week. His accuracy isn't at his normal level, his range is down, but given practice time and more game experience he will be back in form before long, and the Jets couldn't need it more. If the Jets hope to stay competitive, they need to start winning and they need to win a lot. Pennington is their emotional and mental leader, and this team is better in every way with him on the field. They will need him this week, as the Giants' D can be tough. They sit right in the middle of the pack for both rushing and passing defense. They've given up 10 offensive touchdowns: 5 rushing, 5 passing. Nothing spectacular, but not too shabby either. Much like the Jets, they specialize in QB pressure: 24 sacks thus far. Now, as I stated before, QB pressure is very underrated aspect. There are a few things that can help fight the QB pressure. One is a solid running game, allowing teams to keep defensive units honest. The Giants have a somewhat solid running game: Tiki Barber is capable of big games, but he's also capable of fumbles and inept performances. The Jets are struggling to run, but they are getting better. Curtis Martin finally broke the 100-yard mark last week, LaMont Jordan has seen more time and has potential, but to call them "solid" is a stretch at best. So, we come to the TE's: a short passing game can be just as effective as a good running game. The Giants have Jeremy Shockey: I know this kid has tons of talent, but it would be more fair, at this point, to say he's "hit or miss," as he is not the most consistent TE in the NFL by any means. The Jets have Anthony Becht: a solid player that has been golden in the red zone but doesn't make a habit of turning short passes into 40 yard TD's. Right now, I'll give a slight edge to the Giants, but not by much. SO, we come down to the meat of it: the QB's. I've already expounded on Kerry Collins: the word "unstable" comes to mind. Pennington is the exact opposite. This kid is as cool as James Dean eating Dairy Queen on a January evening on Lake Michigan. His mental game is one of the best in the NFL, and he's matured mentally beyond his talent, and his talent is pretty high. I feel you will see Pennington deal with the defensive pressure much better than Collins. Penny will take a sack rather than force a bad pass. He's less apt to turn the ball over, and that will be the difference in this game. I've said it before, I'm saying it again, call me crazy, but I'm taking the Jets at home over their cross-town rivals. I realize this Giants team just beat Minnesota, but these teams are very even matched, and I feel Pennington is just enough edge to pull out a close upset.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Chad Pennington, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Tiki Barber, Santana Moss

2nd String: Kerry Collins, Anthony Becht, Ike Hilliard, Jets Defense, Giants Defense, LaMont Jordan, Curtis Martin

Prediction: Giants 17, Jets 20

New Orleans (3-5) at Tampa Bay (4-3) 1:00 PM
The Saints have to be disappointed after last weeks OT loss to Carolina. What a horrible way to lose a game, in field goal range (hey, for John Carney in the dome, 60 yards is field goal range) and so close to a much needed win, and Deuce fumbles after an amazing hit by Julius Peppers (one of the best young players in the NFL, but that's for another time). Heartbreaking (for the second time this season to Carolina). It would be much better to be 4 & 4 than 3 & 5, and the Saints now have to come back and play the defending Super Bowl champions. Aaron Brook, Joe Horn, and company are still having trouble getting the passing game to the level it could perform. Recently they have been hampered by injuries, namely Donte Stallworth. However, this team is loaded with talent for the passing game: Brooks can air it out with anyone in the league, Joe Horn is tougher than 5 day old beef left in the sun too long, and the other receivers (Stallworth, Pathon, Lewis) are capable of big time plays as well. It's hard to point a finger at one thing: the offensive line isn't so hot, Brooks seems hesitant to run like he has in previous seasons, and Deuce is solid but can't work efficiently without the offensive line OR a good passing game. They have yet to beat a solid team, and much of the blame can be put at the feet of the defense (and the injuries that have plagued them), but this team has to score more and get the passing game flowing to turn this team around. Let's not go into the Tampa D and how they match up: they are still awesome (2nd best in the NFL allowing scoring, giving up only 14 points a game on average), they have the talent and playmakers to cover both the run and pass, they are getting John Lynch back, and they will give the Saints all they can handle and more. All it really takes is two turnovers: you give the Bucs two free balls, and they will beat you nearly every time.

The Tampa offense has reverted back to its old ways of late. They scored big time points in the early going, yet have scored only 23 points in their last two games. Brad Johnson was the NFL's best QB until that time as well (ok, I'll give you McNair, but the stats might argue). He has gotten a good thing going with Keenan McCardell, but without Joe Jurivicius he's struggled to find that second outlet. HEY, KEYSHAWN JOHNSON SCORED A TD LAST WEEK! IT'S OFFICIAL: THE TRUMPETS WILL SOUND, THE SKY'S WILL CLOSE AND TURN BLACK, AND THE LOCUSTS SHOULD BE HERE ANY MINUTE NOW. Michael Pittman has shown some new found moves and has given the Bucs a respectable, sometimes dangerous, rush attack. Yet this team, with all the defense and offense, has managed to stay just above 500. How is this? The only loss that stands out is the butt whoopin' the 49ers put on them. I've watched that game twice, and don't understand what happened to the Tampa defensive line. I'm tempted to throw it out as a freak occurrence, but it was not. It showed what a good offensive line can do for a team. The Saints don't have a good offensive line. The other games Tampa lost were close: tough loss to Carolina, and the late game breakdown to Indy on MNF. Since I don't believe this Saints team can score or pass like Indy, and I KNOW the Saints' defense is not on par with Carolina (currently ranked 28th versus the rush, they are ranked 6th in pass defense but have given up 12 passing TD's and have a small number of sacks, which leads me to believe that most teams know they can run the ball and don't need to pass as often, and the Saints give up about 24 points a game which puts them at 23rd in the NFL). Pittman should run with success, the defense should keep the Saints from scoring easily or often, and Tampa should bring themselves back onto the top shelf of the NFL while sending the Saints the opposite direction.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Tampa Defense, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn (Questionable), Ernie Conwell, Tampa Defense, Michael Pittman, Keenan McCardell

2nd String: Aaron Brooks, Donte Stallworth (Questionable), Brad Johnson, John Carney, Keyshawn Johnson, Martin Gramatica

Prediction: Saints 10, Bucs 23

Jacksonville (1-6) at Baltimore (4-3) 1:00 PM
The Jaguars are coming back from their off week with renewed vigor and heart, ready for the remaining schedule with a tenacious attack of running and passing. Thought I'd prove that I can, in fact, make a team that is 1 & 6 sound better than their record actually dictates. This team does have some talent, but they will take some time to mix the goulash just right. Byron Leftwich is a great talent, one of the future stars of this league. He's found a nice partner in Jimmy Smith, and the two together (along with newly returned Kevin Dyson) give the Jags an air attack that is capable of surprising anyone. Freddie Taylor is playing well: he's become the focal point for opposing defenses, and his numbers may suffer as this trend continues, but Freddie can torch any defense at any given time without warning. Offensively, this team has potential. Let's check in with their opponent for the week, the valiant Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have improved after early season struggles: they are currently ranked 8th versus the run, giving up about 95 yards rushing a game, and having allowed only 3 rushing TD's thus far. The birds rank 12th versus the pass, allowing 189 yards passing a game. However, the Ravens have given up 10 passing TD's, and this is a reason for concern. The Jags can pass: Leftwich has the arm to do some damage, he has some weapons, and he's got the heart. He'll need it all as the Raven's tough rush D is likely to key on Taylor and allow Leftwich to take his shots. If the Jags can score a couple, and their defense can perform at all, you may be looking at an upset.

The Ravens' offense is a bit of a wild card, depending on which Kyle Boller shows up for the game. Boller showed us a flash of his potential two weeks ago, throwing for 302 yards versus a better than average Bengals' defense. Then, last week against a good but injury compromised Broncos team, he threw for only 137. It's not big secret that Boller's favorite target, when he's not handing off to Jamal Lewis, is TE Todd Heap (right now, Heap is the 2nd best TE in the NFL, in my humble opinion). When a TE is your #1 guy, you are not setting up for big yards. This week, he'll have a good chance to go deeper. Jacksonville doesn't have such a good passing defense, allowing about 215 yards passing a game and having allowed 12 passing TD's thus far, and they don't rake in the interceptions or sacks either. Boller, with a great offensive line (and the best O-lineman in the game in Jonathan Ogden), should get some great shots at going long to Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson this time around. The word in Baltimore is rushing, as in Jamal Lewis. However, this week the word is less Lewis may be on order. Lewis is nursing a battered shoulder, and his coach is worried that he may wear himself out before the end of the year. He might see less time this week, and this may cause problems for the Ravens. Jacksonville is currently ranked 6th versus the run, allowing about 92 yards rushing a game. If Lewis were in for sure, I wouldn't care what the ranking for the Jags might be. Lewis is the NFL's best RB thus far, and he can and has run on anyone. However, if Lewis is getting minimal or less time, I don't know that Chester Taylor or Musa Smith can carry the load against a tough rush D. It would put the onus on Kyle Boller to get the scoring done and lead this team to a win. That is a tall order, but one Boller is likely to deliver, as long as the defense shows up to help. That's not a guaranteed occurrence: the defense is good, but they have struggled in games and have looked bad at times. It seems unlikely that this game would head to upset: the Ravens should keep Freddie Taylor in check, they will keep the passing respectable, and the Ravens' D alone should allow this team to win. I will say this: if Jamal Lewis does not play, this game will be much closer than you might expect. I'm taking the Ravens, but not by much.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Travis Taylor, Todd Heap, Baltimore Defense

2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Seth Marker, Kyle Boller

Prediction: Jags 18, Ravens 23

Carolina (6-1) at Houston (2-5) 1:00 PM
Who about them Panthers? They are on fire….well, they are at least on flambé. They seem to thrive on keeping games exciting and close, and (as I've said about this team before) that is the mark of a good team: not that they keep it close, but that they win the close, stressful games. I am going to put both wins over the Saints squarely on the shoulders of Stephen Davis. What an amazing game he put out this last weekend! To break off a run of that size, at a moment of that magnitude, it just speaks to the talent and ability of this player. In Week 5 Davis hit the Saints for 159 yards, and then he comes back 3 weeks later and hits them for 178. I could point out how important Davis is to this team, and then I could tell you things like, "Pizza is good, air is important, Beyonce Knowles is hot." All these things are painfully obvious, and don't really need to be said. Davis has proven to be the free agent pickup of the year, and he'll get another chance to prove such a statement this weekend. Houston gives up about 117 rush yards a game, and is especially vulnerable to the long run (having given up 5 rushes for over 20 yards thus far). Where the Texans can really do some damage is with Jake Delhomme: Houston has the 3rd worst passing defense in the NFL, giving up over 250 yards passing a game and have allowed 14 passing TD's thus far. They have only 8 sacks and 7 interceptions: not horrible numbers, but not numbers that indicate a team that can pressure the QB with any kind of success. Look for Delhomme to open it up with Steve Smith and then hand it off the Davis for the final kill. It's Carolina's MO, and the weaknesses of Houston's D setup nicely for more of the same.

The Texans have started to round out pretty well offensively. You all know about David Carr: too bad it sounds like he's out with the ankle injury. Tony Banks takes over and looks to enjoy Carr's favorites, Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney. Many are familiar with TE Billy Miller and his capabilities. Not so many had heard of Domanick Davis, RB, rookie out of LSU. For two weeks in a row, Davis has shown some great skills and abilities at RB for the Texans, hitting the Jets up for 129 yards two weeks ago and hanging 109 yards on Indy last week. The best thing about Davis is his hands: he's a great receiving threat as well, able to catch short passes and get yards after the catch. Davis has taken the role of starting RB from Stacey Mack, and last week got the bulk of the goal line carries as well, making him a great fantasy play for the rest of the season. Davis, and Banks and company, will have their hands full this week trying to deal with the Panthers' defensive unit. The cats give up about 18 points a game, and their weakness is versus the pass. They've given up only 3 rushing TD's versus the 9 passing TD's they've allowed thus far. But passing on Carolina is not a walk in the park either. They are LOADED with talented players up front: Julius Pepper, Mike Rucker, Dan Morgan (Questionable), Kris Jenkins, and Mike Minter are all capable of putting a QB on a stretcher in a hurry. They've racked up 17 sacks thus far, and excel at tackling (a lost art in the NFL). They will give Banks and Davis fits, they will keep the Texans out of the end zone, and they are likely to give their offense a great number to aim for on the scoreboard. That's how they do it: keep the other team to just enough points for the offense to beat 'em. The Panthers have won only two games by more than 3 points: they beat the Falcons by 20, and they beat the Saints (the first time) by 6. Houston is capable of keeping this one close as well, but you have to give the edge to the Panthers once again. They have the offensive weapons to take full advantage of every Houston weakness on defense, and they have the defense to take advantage of every Houston weakness on offense. The Panthers are a better team, one of the better teams in the NFL right now, and they may keep the score exciting but they will pull it out again.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Stephen Davis, Steve Smith, Panther Defense, Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson

2nd String: Jake Delhomme, John Kasay, Tony Banks, Jabar Gaffney

Prediction: Panthers 21, Texans 17

Cincinnati (3-4) at Arizona (2-5) 4:05 PM
It's just my opinion, but I think most would agree that we can't refer to this team as the Bungles any more. New coach Marvin Lewis has changed the attitude of this team, and he's changed the way the team plays, and he's changed the way the team is run, and…. well, there aren't too many things Lewis hasn't changed, and it's all for the better. In a "normal" year for this team, 3 wins would total a season (and is already one win better than last year). Not only do they have 3 wins, but also they have become a weekly pick for upsets. You can count on one FINGER the number of games they have lost by more than a touchdown (Week 1, lost by 20 to Denver, and if they played Denver today the results would be different). The other 4 losses have been by 7 points or less. They are competing in every game, and they have played some good teams. The Bengals enter the game with two consecutive wins, two weeks ago beating the Ravens (a team that usually waxes the Bengals) and last week in a nice upset over Seattle. It may be hard to imagine, but I have to think the Bengals are a decent sized favorite over the Cardinals this week. Jon Kitna has been amazing: 62% completion rate, 11 TD's to 6 INT's, for a nice 88.2 QB rating (not spectacular, but hey, it's not too bad!). WR Chad Johnson has to be the team's MVP thus far. The kid has become a must-start player for your fantasy team: 643 yards (an amazing average of 18.4 yards a catch) with 5 TD's so far. Not only is the leader on the field, he's becoming the vocal leader off it as well. After Corey Dillon's latest "I'm the king and I want a kingdom" speech, CJ questioned his remarks and wondered out loud to reporters, "Right now should be the time he would want to be here." Not too many guys on this team would question Dillon, who could be their best offensive weapon if he could shake the injury bug. Right now, he's not even the #1 rusher on his own team. Rudi Johnson has filled in nicely, and surpassed Dillon's numbers in the win over Seattle. You take a look at the Arizona defense and you see this game setting up nicely for the Bengals: the Cards give up about 116 yards rushing a game, as well as about 200 yards passing a game. Cincy can do both, and they should keep the chains busy on Sunday.

On the other hand you have an Arizona team coming off their second big upset of the year. They have 2 wins: they upset the Packers in Week 3 and took it to San Fran last week (granted, the 49ers tried their best and succeeded in giving that game away). Hopefully they haven't spent too much time patting themselves on the back. Other than Marcel Shipp, the Zona offense was HORRIBLE: Shipp racked up 165 yards rushing (didn't score) while QB Jeff Blake threw for only 97 yards and rookie sensation Anquan Boldin only picked up 29 of those yards for himself. THAT is nothing to brag about, and it gives you major headaches when you look at this Cincy defense. Shipp could find some success again: Cincy does give up about 120 yards rushing a game. You might think Jeff Blake could improve as the Bengals allow an average of 217 yards passing a game. However, those yards don't come easy: the Bengals do have 9 interceptions this year, and they have 13 sacks thus far. Not very impressive, but for the personnel that mans this defense it is nothing to shake a finger at. When matched against a not-so-good offensive line in Arizona, the Bengals should keep Blake on the run a fair amount of the time. Listen, here is all you REALLY need to know about Zona: they rank dead last in scoring, averaging a paltry 14 points a game. Marcel Shipp should help that number, but the Cardinals can't get him in position to score. Look for Cincy to take the fight to Zona this week. It sounds like Dillon will be back, and he better have some plays to put behind the smack talk. He'll be hyped to run, and Zona isn't prepared to put up much of a fight. You add Kitna to Johnson (and don't forget Peter Warrick, also having a great recovery season) and it's over for Zona (I know, I NEVER pick Zona, and I avoid saying they had "no chance" for that very reason: every time I've put it on paper they've pulled off the upset, but don't bet on it this week). Cincy should pick up their 3rd win in a row, and that constitutes an official "streak," a term not heard in Cincy since Ken Anderson.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Jon Kitna, Corey Dillon (Questionable), Chad Johnson, Cincy Defense, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin

2nd String: Peter Warrick, Matt Schobel, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Freddie Jones

Prediction: Bengals 24, Cards 13

Pittsburgh (2-5) at Seattle (5-2) 4:05 PM
Can anyone tell me what the heck is going on in Pittsburgh? Seriously, this team is chock full of talented players, and they are overdue for a win. The defense is good, yet they give up just enough points, whatever that total is from week to week, to lose. The offense is strong: good lineman, capable QB, great receivers, strong RB's. Yet this team fails to pull these games out. I'm completely baffled. They are currently ranked 11th overall for passing, averaging 221 yards a game, but maybe I spoke to soon about the offensive line as it shows Maddox has been sacked 22 times. And maybe those RB's aren't so strong, as Pitt has the 3rd worst rushing offense in football, averaging only 85 yards rushing a game with only 5 rushing TD's to show for it. Maybe it's not so hard to understand. The Steel Curtain can move the ball, but turnovers and drive-ending sacks have become almost a certainty. They've lost 128 yards on sacks alone thus far, and when you throw away that many yards it's not hard to understand why this team is struggling. All this talent has combined for a mediocre 19 points a game, and when you give up 26 to your opponents, you're sucking the tail pipe boys. Pittsburgh has to reverse the trend, and it will take a full team effort plus some. I don't know if the Steelers have the offensive personnel to get things right: their offensive line is pretty healthy and will need a change in approach to get better. The running game is not horrible, but when you have two guys, running exactly the same type of game, each averaging about 3 yards a carry, it is so predictable and mundane that it fails to succeed for any period of time. The receivers have become the focal point of every opposing defense, and although they still do ok they don't work as a unit, and if all 3 of these studs could get it working at the same time (Burress, Ward, Randle El) they would be much better. They won't have it easy versus Seattle either. Marcus Trufant and Shawn Springs have been solid in the defensive backfield, and unless the Steelers can come with a united front of the big 3, they will struggle again.

Seattle is coming off a big letdown to Cincinnati last week, giving up the game late and never recovering. I can't decide what to think about the two best offensive weapons on this team: Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson. Alexander is one hell of a player, and when he gets the ball he does well. However, Seattle operates under the "West Coast Offense," one of the biggest trends in football over the last couple of decades. This scheme doesn't call for the RB to get the ball 25 to 30 times, and, in my opinion, this has hurt the Seahawks chances to win more games. Why does it make sense to stop giving Alexander the ball when the opposition can't stop him? Koren Robinson is just a straight up disappointment. I've watched this kid drop plenty of passes, and have yet to see him break out the whoppin' stick on the ones he does hold on to. Darrell Jackson, a great WR in his own right but not considered to be at K-Rob's talent level, has one less catch but has gained 120 more yards, and neither has been visiting the end zone too often. Robinson has obvious talent, and I throw WR's with his ability on the 1st String line every week (you never know when they will break it out and you don't want them on your bench when they do), but I'm starting to question his heart. He may have more talent than all the employees of NASA, but without the heart and effort to back it up you get what we've seen from Robinson thus far. Personally, I'm giving him this game and maybe one more week to turn me back around. He has a great opportunity to take this game into his hands. Pitt has a great defense, but as St. Louis showed last week, passing on them is a definite route to victory. Bulger lit up this D for 375 yards, and if Hasselback is going to even consider approaching those numbers he'll need K-Rob and DJ kickin' their butts into high gear, getting open early and often, and catching everything thrown their way. Alexander will do his usual thing: Pitt does have the 5th best rushing D in the NFL, giving up only 90 yards a game, but 90 yards is enough for Alexander to get his work done. The question is can Seattle score enough and protect the ball. I believe they can, and I also believe this Seattle defense will perform well and keep this game respectable for their team.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Shaun Alexander, Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Matt Hasselback, Koren Robinson (Questionable), Josh Brown

2nd String: Seattle Defense, Tommy Maddox, Darrell Jackson, Jerome Bettis, Antwaan Randle-El, Jay Riemersma (Questionable), Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Defense

Prediction: Steelers 17, Hawks 24

Philadelphia (4-3) at Atlanta (1-6) 4:15 PM
I'm still unsure how this Eagles team has gotten to 4 wins. Watching Donovan McNabb with his hands held high, proclaiming to be #1, last week made me laugh. The Eagles have won win with a point spread in double digits. They have yet to look like a solid football team. Now, I always say winning is winning, but winning ugly (although still a win!) is nothing to flaunt. This game will be true test of just how bad this team may be: they are playing the Atlanta Falcons, one of the three worst teams in the NFL right now. Philly averages exactly 1 point more a game than the Dirty Birds. Those of you who say the San Diego-Bears match up and laughed, I hope you saved some for the weekend set, because this game will be every bit as horrendous. I'll watch these games, and I expect the experience to be like the eating soy ice cream: they may call it ice cream, but, brother, that ain't no ice cream worth revisiting for seconds. I fully expect Philly to look better this week: McNabb has to get his game back, at least in flashes, at some point in time. Why not this week? Atlanta is awful: they give up 31 points a game (worst in the NFL), they give up 150 yards rushing a game (3rd worst in the NFL), have allowed 12 rushing TD's (easily the biggest number in the NFL), they give up 267 yards passing a game (once again, worst in the league), and have given up a total of 13 total passing TD's (tied for the 3rd biggest number in the land). Atlanta is the most awful defense in all the world. OJ had a better defense in his civil trial. Mike Spinks had a better defense versus Mike Tyson. France had a better defense versus the Nazis. They are bad. Philly has to be able to get some kind of offense going against this team.

We should look at the Atlanta offense too. Let's see: they are ranked 27th passing the ball (by the way, Philly is dead last, just to rub it in for you McNabb fans), they have almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (13/7), they rank 21st running the rock (about 97 yards a game, imagine what this number would be with a healthy Mike Vick), and they rank 29th in overall scoring (16 points a game, and not ONE defensive or special teams touchdown yet). They are lead by a second year, second rate QB out of Illinois, Kurt Kittner. I don't mean to say Kittner isn't NFL worthy, but he was 3rd on the depth chart behind Doug Johnson, and Doug Johnson was quickly dismissed as an option. Kittner is just there as a change for the sake of change. Dan Reeves is pressuring Mike Vick to come back now, before being 100% healthy (to be honest, everything I hear makes it sound like Vick has over a month until he'll be back). Wouldn't that be great? "Hey, my team is just out there, making the proud citizens of Atlanta throw up all over themselves, and we should force our franchise star and the future of our team to come play now so we can get our team within 10 miles of the playoffs." I've never heard of anything so asinine than what Reeves is contemplating and suggesting. He should be put in a boat, with Marty Schottenheimer, and sent out to sea to ponder the error of their ways. This team has got to be down morally, they are down physically, and they don't have the talent or players or heart or motivation to do well, in this or any other game. That said, they will now come out and win. I'm taking the Eagles, despite my jinx on the game.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Donovan McNabb, Correll Buckhalter, David Akers, Philly Defense, Jay Feeley

2nd String: Jon Ritchie, Duce Staley, James Thrash, Chad Lewis, Kurt Kittner, Warrick Dunn, TJ Duckett, Peerless Price

Prediction: Eagles 20, Dirty Birds 9

St. Louis (5-2) at San Francisco (3-5) 4:15 PM
It might be fair to say the Rams are on a role. It might also be fair to say that in football media, stating the obvious is next to godliness. The Rams, seemingly, can do no wrong. So what if our 1st AND 2nd string RB's are hurt! We'll just throw in the greatest 3rd stringer in the league, Arlen freakin' Harris (who has become the biggest trade bait of the week = SHOCKER), and he'll tear it up for 81 yards and 3 TD's. And even if that didn't work, they wouldn't care because Marc Bulger is apparently the next Joe Montana as he throws like Kurt Warner was nothing more than a bad dream. The kid is amazing: how many other QB's in the NFL could throw 7 INT's over 6 games and still post a 65% completion rate and 92.5 QB rating? It helps to have Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce on the field, but they scratch each other. Holt was a forgotten man under Kurt Warner; under Bulger he's headed straight for the Pro Bowl and weekly fantasy starts. The rams are throwing an average of 29 points on the opposition, and that will win most games in and of itself. If the 49ers can't wrap a game versus on the league's worst (Arizona, for those of you that aren't keeping up), how are they going to do ANYTHING versus this Rams squad? They have allowed 12 passing TD's already this year, and you can bet this number will go up after this weekend.

Funny how a team can come out and completely suck versus one of the league's worst, and when the kicker piles on a couple of misses, he becomes the goat and gets the boot. Granted, Plochman had not performed very well, but the truth is that the Niners should have never been in that position in the first place. This is the same team that destroyed Tampa and one of the best defensive units in all of football the week before, and they come out and take a loss versus Arizona. It is impossible to bet any money, to bet any pride, to bet even a stupid Starbucks on this San Fran team. Who knows what team will show up? It's impossible to tell what they will and won't do from week to week. Against this Rams defense, I doubt it would matter much if they did show up strong. The Rams are a strong defensive team, ranked in the top half of the league versus both the rush and pass, and allowing only 18 points a game. When your offense scores 30 on the average, giving up 18 is nothing. They get good QB pressure, and this will drive Terrell Owens nuts. When Garcia is on the run, TO is rarely the target of choice and is not likely to see too many deep passes. This will not only kill TO, it will kill the Niners hopes of winning. They thrive off the pass, and though Hearst and Barlow are a respectable tandem at RB, they cannot win games by themselves. The Rams will rule the day again, and chalk up another dismal performance for a team on the verge of either success or failure.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Jeff Wilkens, Rams Defense, Terrell Owens

2nd String: Jeff Garcia, Isaac Bruce, Arlen Harris, Dane Looker, Garrison Hearst, Tai Streets, Kevan Barlow,

Prediction: Rams 32, Niners 17

Washington (3-4) at Dallas (5-2) 4:15 PM
Washington comes back from their bye week in hopes of regaining their early season form. Give Steve Spurrier credit: he has attacked this season with an adapted game plan that calls for a healthy dose of running along with the strong yet understated passing game. Despite the lack of a dominant running back, the Skins have been steadfast in their attempts at a well-rounded offense. Patrick Ramsey has been a great QB thus far. I know he's battled in recent games and has some interception problems, but you cannot deny that this kid is maturing rapidly for a 2nd year QB. Laveranues Coles has been an excellent addition and has shown he's worth the money. The weapons are there, but they have been unable to produce in their last two games, getting worked by Tampa Bay and Buffalo before getting a week off. They have become almost predictable, as opposing teams are targeting Ramsey and Coles, challenging the others to try and gather yards. Spurrier needs to mix it up a bit, and a better defensive effort would definitely help, but he can't expect Ramsey to carry the bulk of the offensive load all season long. With half of the running back committee hampered by injury, it is hard to find options for relief. This is a team could be ripe for this Dallas defense. The Boys are ranked 3rd for both passing and rushing defense in the NFL right now. Even in losing to the Bucs last week, they didn't play horribly and the defense held them to 16 points. If Buffalo's D can hold down the Skins to 7 points, believe the Boys will give them all kinds of problems. I've sung the praises of Roy Williams before, and I'll take this opportunity to do it again. He'll get some shots at both Ramsey and Coles, and he's likely to do well. Throw in a great pass rush and you've got yourself a good old-fashioned Bill Parcells defense that would love nothing more than to work out some frustration on the historical rival Redskins.

The Boys' offense had a rough one last week, getting blanked by the Bucs. It's pretty simple to explain: attack Quincy Carter, keep Galloway and Glenn buckled down, and let's see if Hambrick and Caison can beat us. Unfortunately for the Redskins, this same approach may be the best plan of attack but it won't be executed with such ease. The Skins are a bit of an anomaly: they are loaded with skill players like Lavar Arrington, Champ Bailey, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter, Fred Smoot, and Jessie Armstead. However, they give up almost 120 yards rushing a game and have allowed the 3rd most passing TD's in the NFL. They have recorded only 10 sacks thus far, one of the lowest numbers for the stat in the league. So, here we have all the proof that the Skins D is not the Tampa D: they don't get good QB pressure, they don't cover so well, and they struggle to stop the run. One might conclude the Dallas offense is a good fit to do well versus this Redskin defense, and I might be that one. Look for the Boys to entertain the home fans by returning to the win column with a solid offensive and defensive game over a Skins team struggling to find a flow on either side of the ball. With a defense that could challenge the best teams in the league, an offense that can take advantage of any opposing team with a defensive weakness, and a coach that brings more to the table than the apostles at the Last Supper, Dallas is poised for a run at the division title, and a win over their biggest rival (except for, possibly, the Giants) would be a nice addition to an already surprising season.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Dallas Defense, Quincy Carter, Laveranues Coles, Joey Galloway, Billy Cundiff, John Hall

2nd String: Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, Troy Hambrick, Patrick Ramsey, Rod Gardner

Prediction: Skins 13, Boys 24

Green Bay (3-4) at Minnesota (6-1) 8:30 PM
Here we go, the battle for the NFC North…. just doesn't sound right. Packer are coming off their bye week, rested and refreshed to come out and battle their own defense again. When your team ranks 4th overall in NFL scoring, and you still have 4 losses, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the problem. The Pack won't have an easy time scoring this week in the dome. Minny's defense isn't too shabby, and Chris Hovan has already verbally posted his intentions to headhunt Brett Favre and create a loving atmosphere for the Cheeseheads. Take a look at the numbers: they are top 10 in rushing defensive rankings, and though they do give up some passing yards they have held opponents to an average of 18 points a game. Not too bad. This is a tough one for the Vikes though: if they target Ahman Green, as most do, and leave themselves open to Brett Favre and the pass, this game could be interesting. Minny beat the Pack in Week 1, at the not-so-Frozen Tundra. The Pack would like to get that one back, and if Ahman can get the rush rolling, they could pull it out.

The Vikes have to be disappointed with last week's performance. They lost to a struggling Giants team, and they had a chance to steal the win late but turned the ball over one too many times. Tough game to pick up that first loss, and now they are looking at their conference foe dead in the eye to bounce back. You know about Culpepper, everyone knows about Moss, and even Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith are in your head. Then comes this news: it sounds like Michael Bennett will get some game snaps this weekend. As if the running game for Minnesota wasn't already working well, they get the track star turned Pro Bowler back earlier than originally planned. I have to be honest: I love Bennett. We haven't had a rusher like this since Barry Sanders took his ball home. He was clocked last week running a 4.29 40-yard dash, and that wasn't even at 100% health! He's exciting: imagine what Bennett can do with the holes this Vikings' offensive line have been making for Moe and Onterrio. The 7-yard jaunt for Moe could be a 60-yard killing spree for Bennett. Now that I have stroked that one, I should point out that he's still not 100%, and his action is likely to be limited unless he breaks out a big game right away. That is a possibility, as the Packer's D is not very good at all. Currently, the Pack is rated 29th versus the pass (247 yards a game, 10 passing TD's allowed thus far), they are ranked 19th versus the run (116 yds/game with 6 rushing TD's allowed), and they give up about 24 points to the average opponent. Minnesota is not average, and if they can't stop Moss (he lit 'em up for 150 in their first meeting of the year), and they won't, then the running game opens up and Minnesota should get rolling once again. This will be a good game for the over my friends, as long as the Vikings can keep the turnovers to a minimum. Daunte doesn't want to slip back into that horrible interception habit again. Keep an eye on Bennett, and if he can get anything going at all, it's on for the Vikings.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Bubba Franks

2nd String: Moe Williams, Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith, Javon Walker, Ryan Longwell, Nate Burleson, Jim Kleinsasser, Aaron Elling

Prediction: Pack 18, Vikes 28

New England (6-2) at Denver (5-3) Mon 9:00 PM
If the Giants are the biggest disappointment thus far (some might argue Philly, and I would have a hard time arguing), then the Patriots are easily the biggest surprise. This team came into the year amongst rumors of revolt and hatred for the coach, and struggling not only with injuries but also with player contracts (Lawyer Milloy, may have heard about it). Despite all the drama and all the injuries (and there have been plenty of injuries), this team is winning, and they are doing it against solid competition. They've beaten Miami and Tennessee, both solid offensive and defensive teams. The Pats won't pop your head off with excitement, but they play good, mistake free football. They don't turn the ball over to often, they have a nice mix of running backs with different weapons, and the passing game is pretty good as well. Tom Brady has turned into the player the Pats hoped for when they allowed Bledsoe to walk, a strong willed yet fun loving leader both on and off the field. He's got a great arm, and when the receivers get open he can make it work. The running game is a nice mix of speed (Mike Cloud) and power (Kevin Faulk), and just enough of both has put up respectable numbers and kept opposing defenses honest. The real surprise has been the performance of the patchwork offensive line. The Pats have yet to start the same offensive line for two consecutive games this season. Yet they provide great protection for Brady, no matter who is playing. The opposition can sympathize with the Patriots struggles, but don't expect them to match their performance. The Broncos have basically lost their entire LB corps: John Mobley and Ian Gold are both injured for a while, leaving Al Wilson to fend for himself. This is a huge blow to the Broncos' defense. They relied on QB pressure, on using LB's to fill the gaps and take advantage of movement to mask a safety blitz or a Cover 2. Without Mobley and Gold, the Pats should have no problems giving Brady time and opportunity to go deep. The Bronco's defensive backfield has struggled as it is (allowing 9 passing TD's thus far). Without the strong QB pressure, the Broncos D may be sitting ducks.

The real story in New England has been the defense. They are as strong right now as any defense in the league. They give up 222 yards passing a game, but have yielded only 3 passing TD's thus far, an amazing number. They are currently playing with the 4th best rushing defense in the land, giving up only 89 yards a game, and have allowed only 1 run for over 20 yards. Without a passing game in Denver, with all the QB's hurt, that rushing D ranking doesn't bode well for Clinton Portis. That said, the Broncos have to get Portis the ball in any way they can. Without Jake Plummer at QB, the opposition believes (correctly) that the Broncos can't pass well, and definitely can't go long. This makes Portis target #1 for defenses, and Clinton isn't built to beat up on defensive double teams and get better as the game progresses. That said, he is the only offensive weapon this team has, and when given the carries he usually does well no matter whom the opposition may be. If the Broncos have any hopes of winning, they have to keep the Patriot defense on the field, making them tired and weary, so Portis can do damage late in the game. They need to slow down the clock, slow down the pace, and let Portis earn his bread. Even if this would work, it might not be enough. If Brady can get it working, and the Pats D can play well, the Broncos don't have much of a shot for a home win on MNF. Before the Plummer (and defensive) injury, this match up looked great. Without Plummer and the LB's for Denver, it looks like it could be ugly. Take the Patriots, and let the Broncos limp into their bye week and they will return with Plummer, looking to start over.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Pats Defense, Tom Brady, Clinton Portis, Troy Brown, Adam Vinatieri, Shannon Sharpe

2nd String: Kevin Faulk, Rod Smith, Ashlie Lelie, Mike Cloud, Christian Fauria (Questionable), David Patten (Questionable), Deion Branch, Dave Kannell, Jason Elam

Prediction: Pats 18, Broncos 10