Is there a science to predicting which rookie player will be the
next Randy Moss, Edgerrin James or Peyton Manning? If we break down
the NFL Draft and compare it to the NFL season, will it show the
secret formula? Who knows. It could be as random as meeting the
love of your life while closing a dive on the bad side of town?
Or a simple mathematical formula. Maybe that special rookie secretes
a pheromone. Can it be situation over talent? Or does talent win
out over all others. We are going to break down the last 10 NFL
drafts and see where they lead. If they lead at all. First rounders
are our whipping boys as anything beyond the first round throws
the numbers out of whack. Yeah, we know Mike Anderson had a huge
year but how many of you drafted Anderson before the season began.
Liars! No one drafted Anderson unless they were crazy about the
Broncos or the State of Utah.
Quick Overview
We will grade each player as how they finished the season. Players
in the top-6 QBs/TEs or top-12 RBs/WRs are Stars, the next level
are Starters, then Flex, then Bench, and finally Corpse. Useful
players are those that grade as Flex or better.
Last Season
A lot of skill position players were drafted, in the first round,
last year but few made any noise during the season. Only Jamal Lewis
was worth spit and most players, including the overhyped Plaxico
Burress, were dog ends. This is not an unusual season.
Stars - 0
Starters - 1
Flex - 2
Bench - 5
Corpse - 5
History-Last 10 Seasons
There have been 98 first round skill position picks in the last
10 NFL Drafts. Less than a third of all first rounders are useful
- Flex or better. And almost half can't get out of their own way.
Stars - 8
Starters - 13
Flex - 10
Bench - 19
Corpse - 48
History-Last 5 Seasons
A total of 50 skill position players were drafted in the last five
years. No huge revelation there. What is revelatory is the success
rate of the top end. Most of the Stars and Starters have been drafted
in the last five seasons. Speculation on why that happens, other
than it is a small sample and small samples can draw odd results,
is tough to quantify but possibly the salary cap forces teams to
play their rookies sooner and those players given the opportunities
excel.
Stars - 6
Starters - 8
Flex - 5
Bench - 10
Corpse - 22
Michael Vick
First round quarterbacks have been as successful as Italian Generals
with only one Star - Peyton Manning, one Starter - Rick Mirer, and
a couple useful players out of 20 that were drafted. Moving to the
last five years the success rate isn't any better. This does not
bode well for Vick. But Vick is a little different as he is a first
pick, first rounder.
First Five QBs Taken
There have been 10 quarterbacks drafted in the top-5; all have seen
time, which is important. There is not a likelihood that Vick will
sit on the bench, all season, but also there is not a likelihood
that he will succeed, either. Expect Vick to see time once Atlanta
has been counted out - isn't that now --, which should be by mid-season.
The only value he has, at this time, is as a third QB - if you are
intent on carrying three.
Stars -1
Starters -1
Flex -2
Bench - 2
Corpse - 4
LaDainian, Michael, and the Deuce
Let's be perfectly honest, most fantasy footballers know that running
backs is where the gold resides in rookie players. Not that they
are horribly predictable, either. Given the 10 year treatment you
get 15-for-33 useful and 11-for-33 as Starters. Drop down to the
last five years and running backs really get better as 10-for-16
are useful and 7-for-16 are Starters. Not bad. The problem is that
if you have invested a third or fourth round pick and ended up with
someone that can be used on bye weeks only, or - shudder - Troy
Smith, you are toast.
The three backs listed above fit three distinct scenarios. LaDainian
is coming to a poor team, especially running the football, and is
a high draft pick. The only reason he doesn't start is if he is
totally unaware of the game or gets injured. Michael Bennett has
been dropped in running back heaven with a good offense around him
and a good offensive line. He has some competition but if he stays
healthy there is a better than 50-percent chance that he wins the
job. Deuce McAllister only has a chance at starting if Ricky Williams
trips over his dreadlocks or gets traded. Trades, in the NFL, are
as rare as all-beef fast food burgers so forget that scenario. McAllister
will sit, maybe play on third downs, and only should be picked up
by owners of Williams.
First Round Backs, Poor Rushing Teams
There is a plethora of running backs that have gone to poor rushing
teams, with some success. And some that have tanked. In the last
10 years, teams that were in the bottom-10, in rushing, the previous
season, have taken 16 backs. And eight have been useful. It may
be too much to expect a great season, like Marshall Faulk in 1994,
or Edgerrin James in 1999, but a season like Rashaan Salaam or Leonard
Russell with 1,000 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns isn't out of
the question if Tomlinson can stay on the field.
Stars - 3
Starters - 3
Flex - 2
Bench - 3
Corpse - 5
First Round Backs, Good Rushing Teams, Taken Late
Michael Bennett steps into a great situation. The Vikings are a
good team, with a strong passing game, and a good offensive line.
They had a good/great running back in Robert Smith who decided to
take the money and join Barry Sanders in the commune. This is similar
to what happened when Smith joined the team. The year before Smith
was drafted, they had Terry Allen who ran for over 1,200 yards but
was injured for the 1993 season. In his place they ended up with
a mish-mosh of backs, which included Smith, Roger Craig, and Barry
Word. They never settled on one back and scored about 70 points
less and lost two more games. Bennett doesn't jump into the same
mess as his competition were backups, last season, with no history
of success. Meaning he has a reasonably clear shot to the job, if
he can show that he can hang onto the ball and pickup the blocking
assignments. History is of no use as there are really only three
similar players and two were worthless. The one that played well
- Antowain Smith - was splitting time with Thurman Thomas. No one
has come into a successful situation as the man without credible
competition. If he can get to the starting position the only thing
that will hold him back is lack of success. That would seem to be
an obvious statement but an older, more experienced, back would
get a longer leash and Bennett may only have three games to prove
himself.
The Six-Pack
Rookie wide receivers make poor draft picks. More have been drafted
in the first round the past 10 seasons and more have failed. Only
10 of the 35 have been useful players and Randy Moss was the single
Star to come out of the first round. In the last five years, taking
wide receivers has happened more often than FBI screw-ups. And it
has been slightly more successful. Of the 20 taken, seven have been
useful and Moss and the 1996 class - Keyshawn, Harrison, etc. --
dominate the numbers. That is still only a 35-percent success rate.
And if you take the 4-for-5 in 1996 out you get brackets of 3-for-15
prior to 1996 and post-1996. A bit of symmetry that throws a little
dirt on 1996 as a repeatable result.
A lot of the success will be depend on whether they can actually
set foot on the field. Eric Moulds was the one 1996 rookie receiver
that failed but he failed because he had two veterans in front of
him. The best chance of getting playing time, at this stage, is
Freddie Mitchell or Rod Gardner. Neither have tough competition
at the second spot. Koren Robinson could also have a clear shot
unless Jerry Rice steps in the way and Robinson has to beat out
Darrell Jackson, instead. Reggie Wayne has the best situation, if
he starts, but he also has the most competition. David Terell will
have two solid but injured receivers to fight past. He also has
the Bears offense as well. He could find himself anywhere from No.
1 to No. 3. Moss looks like a third receiver/kick returner for this
season. Anyone in an early draft taking any of these rookies as
a WR1, WR2, or WR3 probably should be put in a room with Al Gore.
Draft rookie receivers as WR4's with the hope that they play better.
Stars - 1
Starters - 6
Flex - 3
Bench - 6
Corpse - 19
A Heap of Trouble
There have been nine tight ends drafted in the first round the past
10 years and only Ricky Dudley was truly useful. Todd Heap may well
turn out to be a good professional but he has to learn to play the
game and he has Shannon Sharpe to defeat. Heap is good for a Dynasty
League but even then we are probably talking 2003/2004 before an
owner reaps the benefits.
Stars - 0
Starters - 1
Flex - 1
Bench - 3
Corpse - 4
Conclusion
Blindly drafting a rookie with thoughts of instant success is insane.
The track record of rookies is very poor. And the hopes and dreams
of fantasy footballers taking rookies are stacked up like letters
to Santa Claus in the dead letter office. Early drafters - pre August
1 -- should avoid rookies altogether as there is nothing to go by
other than the propagandist ramblings of coaches about how so and
so played in mini-camp. Opening Day is a helluva long way from mini-camp.
If at all possible, close your ears to whatever is heard from mini-camps
about rookies. Everyone is trying to justify his or her selection
and it is best to see rather than hear. If drafting later in the
year, and close to Opening Day as possible, then the ability to
discern the good cheese from the moldy is a little easier. At that
point who is getting the most playing time will be clear and opportunity
is king when rookies are concerned. However, last season, the best
rookie running back came from left field and the best first round
rookie wasn't the obvious choice at the season's start. All three
had the opportunity but only Jamal Lewis took advantage. Drafting
a rookie should only take place when the risk of the selection is
overridden by the possible reward. Taking rookie running backs slated
to start as RB3's and rookie receivers as WR4's would make sense.
Selecting rookie QBs or TEs as anything more than end of the roster
filler is almost certain death.
There is no science to selecting rookies, no special formula, and
no particular pattern. The key is opportunity. And even then rookies
are dependent on their teammates for help. Drafting rookies is like
looking for a spouse without any of the fun in the backseat of Dad's
Rambler and a lower rate of success.
