…is to dominate your draft. In this article, I’m going to show you
my drafting system that will put you in control of your league.
This is not fluffy, light reading for the casual fan. This is serious
and valuable information for the hardcore owner who’s playing for
keeps and willing to trade his girlfriend for an edge. This article
is for Fantasy Sharks. If that’s you, c’mon in.
Interested? I thought so. This method is something I began evangelizing
to the public way back in 1996 when guys like Keyshawn Johnson,
Eddie George and Marvin Harrison had yet to play an NFL down. It’s
called the Value Based Draft System (or VBD for short) and today,
you’ll find it’s the hot ticket among serious FF Owners. Even among
other writers. They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Lets just say I’m flattered and leave it at that. But my system
has gained wide popularity for one reason: It works.
I brought these ideas to the Football World after being immersed
for many years in the statistical gymnastics known as Rotisserie
Baseball. There I learned from the Roto masters like John Benson,
Bill James, Alex Patton and Pete Palmer the basics of these ideas.
Over the last 4 years, I’ve been continually updating and rethinking
these concepts and how they apply to football. You’re reading the
latest.
Imagine yourself in the following scenario:
Draft night. Round 6. Tick tock, tick tock. The walls in the smoke
filled room are slowly closing in on you. You’re well aware that
you’ve entered the crucial phase of the draft where the men are
quickly separated from the boys. The adrenaline rush of the first
two rounds is a distant memory while you run on nothing more than
caffeine and raw nerves. Your stomach is now questioning the wisdom
of accepting that last slab of pizza when your situation worsens
considerably. The owner selecting in front of you steals the budding
star you covet but passed on last round because you were certain
he’d hang for another 12 picks. All the guys in the Usenet Group
said you just had to have the #2 RB by round 5 and Mr. Sleeper Star
would stick around for at least another round. You just knew it.
Tick tock…
Yeats was right when he said, "we have no enemy but time". With
your "steal of the draft" sleeper now sitting smugly on your rival’s
roster, you have to make a decision…fast. Suddenly you’re sifting
through QB’s in the Blake / Culpepper / Chandler range, RB’s in
the Wheatley / Watters / Dayne neighborhood, WR’s in the Mathis
/ Toomer / Dwight mold, and TE’s along the lines of Reimersma and
Jones. Do you even dare think about a Kicker yet? Surely not a Defense.
Sheesh. Whaddya do?
If you’re like 95% of the Fantasy Owners out there, you do what
you’ve always done: Consult your old friend, the "Gut", and grab
whoever he tells you. Ah, good ‘ol Gut. Live and die with the Gut.
Unlike your rival, who claimed he’d never heard of your star sleeper
2 hours ago, the Gut never lies and he’s never let you down before.
Has he? OK, you weren’t the only guy in the world to snag Joey Galloway
in round one last year so you can’t blame that all on the Gut. But
there WERE those couple (dozen?) instances last season where the
"hunch" didn’t quite play out as you planned… and you’re pretty
darn sure you remember saying the Rams would never go far… and now
that you think of it, Mr. Gut had a pretty sizable hand in helping
you pull the trigger on that last piece of pizza a few minutes ago.
What’s up with that?
You’re thinking there must be a better way.
And I’m telling you there is.
With my VBD System you’ll be able to finally place a tangible value
on these players that makes sense to you. Always before, no one
really knew if a QB throwing 22 TD’s / 3000 yards is more valuable
than a RB scoring 9 TDs / 1000 yards or a WR posting 7 TD’s / 1100
yards. Now you’ll know.
I’m here to tell you that success in your Fantasy Football Draft
is all about understanding Peer Pressure. And I’m not talking about
being the last guy on the planet to lose the goatee (that was last
year) What I’m talking about is the surest way I know of to accurately
place a value on Fantasy Football Players for your draft.
In it’s simplest form: The value of a player is determined not
by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores
his peers at his particular position.
Think about it for a moment. The goal is not to score a ton of points.
You can score a ton of points and still lose. The goal is to outscore
your competition. In other words, the goal is to distance yourself
ahead of the competition. How do you best do that? You do that by
selecting players who outscore their peers, not necessarily the
players who score a ton of points as you fill a roster with a specified
number of players at specified positions. This is extremely important.
Copy this and paste it somewhere prominent. It’s the key to success
in this game.
For example, let’s say you had a perfect crystal ball and knew the
points players would post. If you select a Mike Hollis, at say,
145 points, your competition can counter that move with an Al Del
Greco at 143. You’re up 2 points, big deal. Your opponent takes
a McNair at 115 points. You can effectively counter with a Brunell
at 100 only giving up 15 points. You select a Tony Gonzalez at 75
points and if your opponent counters that with Kyle Brady at 35,
you’re suddenly up a whopping 40 points. The team that wins will
be the team that can most distance themselves from the pack at each
position. It makes no difference from which position the advantage
in points come from. All you’re looking for are the points themselves.
You can gain the advantage from being just a little better at each
position, or you may gain the exact same advantage by being incredibly
strong at one position and just a little weaker at all the others.
People sometimes have a hard time seeing this. (Assuming a mandatory
TE) They’ll say "how can a TE (Walls) scoring 75 points be more
valuable than a #1 WR (Moulds) scoring 95 points?" The answer is
that it’s not a game of TE vs. #1 WR. Just like the real thing,
it’s a team game. The Walls owner gets to draft a #1 WR to team
with Walls and the Moulds owner must draft a TE to go with Mr. Moulds.
The Walls owner will likely be able to draft a #1 WR fairly close
to Moulds’ numbers. The Moulds owner’s TE will probably post numbers
much lower than Walls. When the owner combines the numbers of Walls
and his #1 WR, they will probably be more than the numbers posted
by Moulds and the available TE. Does this make sense? If it doesn’t,
read it again. It is the cornerstone of the Value Principle.
Think about it like this. We are NOT trying to assemble a group
of the highest scoring players with no regard to position. If that
were the case, the best team would be full of kickers. We are bound
by our starting lineups as to the positions we must fill. Our team,
consisting of a specified number of players from the specified positions
will compete against the other teams consisting of the same number
of players from the same positions. Therefore, the object of the
game changes from assembling a group of high scoring players (with
no regard to position) to assembling a starting roster with the
highest scoring players at each position. Think of it in terms of
individual matchups pitting your team against another team, position
by position. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say your starting
roster is 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR and 1 PK. In a one game matchup, your
QB outscores his QB 20 to 18 (+2 points). You’re up 2. Your RB is
outscored by his RB 0 to 5 (-5 points). Now you’re down by 3. Your
WR outscores his WR 20 to 5 (+15 points). Now you’re back up by
12. Your kicker outscores his kicker 21 to 20 (+1 points) This puts
you up 13. You win the matchup 61 to 48.
Y O
U W I N !
YOUR TEAM
HIS TEAM
PTS ADV.
CUMULATIVE TOTAL
Your QB 20 pts
His QB 18 pts
+2 for you
+2
Your RB 0 pts
His RB 5 pts
-5 for you
-3
Your WR 20 pts
His WR 5 pts
+15 for you
+12
Your PK 21 pts
His PK 20 pts
+1 for you
+13
Total Pts:
61 Total Pts: 48
Listen up now. The point differences at each position, when totaled,
will determine the winner. In this case it was a total team difference
of 13 points. Here’s the important question. Let’s say you and the
owner above are going to throw all 8 players back into the pool,
have a draft, fill your 4 man roster and play a 1 game season. For
the sake of argument, these are the only 8 players available to
draft ( 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s and 2 PK’s ) and you already know
they’re going to post the points I’ve stated. You must draft 1 QB,
1 RB, 1 WR, and 1 PK. Who would you draft first? Tick, tock, tick
tock…
It’s an absolute no brainer. The WR who scores 20 points MUST be
the #1 draft pick. The 20 point WR is by far the most valuable player
even though he scored the same as the QB and 1 point less than the
kicker. He gives you a 15 point advantage at WR while the better
QB only gives a 2 point advantage, the better PK gives a 1 point
advantage and the better RB gives a 5 point advantage. The WR’s
20 points were much more valuable than the QB’s 20 points and the
PK’s 21 points because of how the player relates to his peers. It’s
like tic-tac-toe. If it doesn’t make sense, actually do the draft
and see it yourself.
Because you must fill each position, the owner who drafts the 20
point WR cannot lose. The draft is over once the WR is taken. You
give me the 20 point WR and my dog, Zeus, can draft the rest of
my team and still beat you. Re read this and make sure you understand
it. It’s vital that you see all points do not have equal VALUE.
When you think about it, this is something you’re probably already
doing at some level already. For example, it’s generally accepted
that owners wait until the later rounds to draft a kicker. Why?
It’s certainly not because they don’t score enough points. They
usually lead the league in most scoring systems. The reason that
most kickers are drafted late is that they have low value. They
have low value because there are many kickers who will produce a
similar number of high points. Even though they’re high scorers,
most owners feel that they can wait until later and still pick a
nice kicker.
Kickers earn a low value because there are just so many good ones
available. They’re a "dime a dozen" as they say. On the other hand,
an Edgerrin James has few peers. RB’s who can post his type of numbers
are considerably more "rare". Therefore, his value goes up. Make
sense? Elementary, I know, but it’s important to understand the
concept behind the principle.
With me this far? I’ll assume we’re on the same page as to how value
is determined. Now we’re faced with the task of building a draft
list based upon those principles.
In five easy steps, here it is:
Project Stats for Each Player you think will be drafted in
your league.
Determine projected Fantasy Points based on your scoring
system.
Determine your baseline.
Using your baseline, determine a Value Number (V#) for each
player.
Sort your list by Value Numbers overall and by position.
If you’d like to bypass all the work, collect your $200 and go straight
to GO, I’ve got a solution for you. We’ve created an VBD
Excel App that lets you just input your league information and
it’ll do all the work for you. Still, though, you should read the
information below so you understand what’s happening. By the way,
the App is Free.
Each one of these steps could easily merit it’s own article but
for now, here’s the summary version for each step.
Projecting Stats
The hardest part is the first part. In order for the Value System
to work, it requires a firm set of projected stats for every player
in your draft pool. Don’t give me grumbling about how unpredictable
football players are or the whining that usually follows player
projection discussion. If you’re going to dominate this draft (that
IS your goal, isn’t it?), it’s absolutely essential that you have
all the pertinent stats for your league projected for every player
for the entire season. Project these numbers for every player that
you expect to be drafted, not just starters.
It’s not really that much work though. If you’ll think about it,
you’re probably doing these projections already, just not this specifically
and probably not formally. Everyone thinks that James will score
more TD’s than Dunn. We all think Manning will throw more TD’s than
McNown (although it’ll be closer than you think). Everyone expects
John Hall to boot some 50+ yarders. Those things we know. What you
must do with your projections is get a handle on exactly how many
more TD’s you expect James to post than Dunn. It’s not enough to
say "he’s better". You must decide how much better. This becomes
critical later because in a real draft, you’re not comparing Dunn
to James only. You’re comparing Warrick Dunn to Tim Couch, Jerry
Rice and Shannon Sharpe perhaps. To see how Dunn compares to them,
you must understand exactly how he compares to James first. You’ll
see why in a moment.
Projecting Fantasy Points
OK, stats are projected, now what? Now you must run these raw stats
through your scoring system and come up with a projected number
of fantasy points you expect each player to produce from the raw
stats you projected. Rank each player BY POSITION from highest to
lowest number of projected fantasy points. For right now, keep them
separated by position.
Determining Baseline
The next step is determining your "Baseline". What you’re looking
for in the baseline is a player (or number) that you’ll compare
all the players at that position against. The simplest way to set
a baseline is to use the worst starter at each position. In other
words, for a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE,
and 1 PK, the worst starters will be the 12th best QB, the 24th
RB, the 36th WR, the 12th TE and the 12th PK.
This
is where the number of teams in your league and starting requirements
are such a huge factor. Everyone wants to talk about scoring systems
but the truth of the matter is that the league size and starting
lineups are much more important. Do you think Marvin Harrison has
a different value in a 16 team league starting 3 WRs every week
than he does in an 8 team league starting 2 WRs? You bet he does.
For demonstration principles, the baseline of worst starter works
fine. As you become more familiar with the system, the baseline
will be area you’ll want to spend the most time with. I also like
using a baseline of the last player selected at each position. This
gives you a truer sense of the overall depth at a position. You
can also begin to implement averages into the baseline using the
average starter or even the average of all players selected at that
position.
But for right now, lets assume the baseline is your worst starter.
Value Numbers
If the #12 QB on my list is my baseline and he is expected to post
75 points, I would subtract 75 points from each QB on the list.
That would give the worst starter (#12) a value of zero. All QB’s
who are not expected to start would have a negative value. This
number will be called your "Value Number" or V#. Do this for every
position so that the worst starter at each position has a value
of zero. Lets say you expect Favre to post 200 points. Subtracting
the points scored by the worst starter would give Favre a V# of
125. What you’ll then have is a V # for every player that shows
how many points you expect them to score more than the worst starter
at that position. This is the number that determines value.
Sorting your Value Numbers
Once the V#’s are determined, it’s a very simple matter of throwing
them all in one heap and ranking by the Value Number. What you’ll
see will likely surprise you. Depending on your league, don’t be
shocked to see some players sort out much higher than "conventional
wisdom" says. You’ll most likely find that your kickers all have
V #’s fairly low and fairly close together. This reinforces what
you already know. Even though they score a ton, they’re all just
about the same and you can afford to wait and snag a good one later.
You’ll probably be surprised when you look at the other positions.
QB’s are probably deeper than you think. After Warner / Manning
/ Favre, there is a drop, but the group of Johnson, Beuerlein, McNair,
Gannon, Bledsoe etc. is pretty strong. In yardage leagues, you’ll
probably be surprised at the depth of RB’s. Players like Duce Staley
quietly pile up the yardage without much fanfare. TE’s will probably
shock you. When you start to see the benefit that a Walls / Gonzalez
can give you over a Ken Dilger / David Sloan, you may be surprised.
WR’s may not as deep as you think, especially in yardage leagues,
and therefore the value of the top players are increased.
A key point is to understand what the list is telling you. It’s
ranking the players by their VALUE. This is not necessarily the
order in which you should draft them. You must understand the value
your fellow owners place upon players and couple that with your
rankings. In other words, don’t draft a player any earlier than
your fellow owners force you to.
In Summary, if you only remember two things, remember this:
S U
M M A R Y
»
The object of the game is not
to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent.
You must fill a roster with a specified number of players
at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your
opponent is to build a team of players that outscore
their peers. The players who most distance themselves
from the other players at their respective positions
are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player
draft example where I can’t lose after drafting the
20 point WR.
»
Factors such as the specific
number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen
players, and scoring system for your league dramatically
effect the values of each player. These factors can
cause the same player in two different leagues to have
dramatically different values.
Remember, if you’d like to have a custom Value Based Draft cheatsheet
built for you based on my projections and be up and running in minutes,
we’ve created a VBD
Excel App that lets you simply input your league information
and it’ll do all the work for you. Of course, you can also use your
own projections if you prefer. You need Microsoft Excel to view
the App but that’s it. It’s 100% Free.
Think about these principles. Play around with them and see how
they work for yourself. Once you understand the concepts behind
the Value Based Draft System, you’ll be well on your way to Dominating
Your League. Then when the smoke gets heavy in round six, you can
relax and tell your "gut" you have this one under control. Make
the killer pick and then reward yourself with another slice of pizza...
Joe Bryant is the owner of footballguys.com.
More of his work can be found there along with all the information
and tools you’ll need to Dominate Your Draft.
