Before I jump into this I want to take one moment and say “THANK YOU”
to all the Men and Women who’ve served our Country as we approach Veteran’s
Day this Saturday. If you know a Vet, thank him or her. I don’t want
to force my non-football views but for those interested, I’ve included
a quick piece thanking our Veterans at the end of this report. Thanks.
Passing Game Matchups:
Here's how
I see the matchups this week. Please note, see the cheatsheet
for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. Just because
one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily
mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. The matchup info is meant
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.
Note: I’ve used the player stats sorted by performance over the last three
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by
Mike Hall’s excellent FLM League Management
Software. for more info.
Here we go:
-LOCKS: These
games heavily favor the offense.
New Orleans Passing
Game vs Raider Defense
Gut check time for the Saints as they deal with life after Ricky. Most
folks know I’m big on synergy which is just one of those $10 words
for depending on your teammates. Everyone knows that RBs need a decent
passing game to be effective on the ground. I’m beginning to think
however that the effect isn’t quite as pronounced in reverse. In
other words, I don’t believe losing Ricky Williams will hurt QB Jeff
Blake as much as losing Jeff Blake would have hurt Ricky Williams. With
RBs Chad Morton and Jerald Moore in the backfield, I look for Blake to
air it out against a suspect Raider pass defense. Basically like Donovan
McNabb is doing in Philadelphia. Over the last 4 weeks, Oakland ranks
# 30 in passing yards allowed per game. For the year, they rank # 23 in
Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. WR Joe Horn is by far the favored
target while Keith Poole and Willie Jackson may grab a few. TE Andrew
Glover is worth a shot if you’re in a bind but he’s been very
inconsistent.
Atlanta
Passing Game vs 49er Defense The 49er defense squashed Elvis Grbac owners last week but I’m
not quite ready to appoint them QB Killers. They’ve been awful
for the year up until then. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 29
in passing yards allowed per game. And they rank # 31 for the year in
Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. QB Chris Chandler is back
among us now and the cobwebs seem to be cleared. WR Terrance Mathis
is by far the best receiving choice although it’s worth noting
that Shawn Jefferson had a great game against this 49er team back in
week 1 (doesn’t that seem like a long time ago?) TE Reggie Kelly
could be worth a long shot as the 49ers rank # 22 in Fantasy Points
allowed to opposing TEs although Kelly has done very little of late.
Minnesota
Passing Game vs Panther Defense
I’m running out of adjectives to describe the stellar play of QB
Daunte Culpepper. And I think he’ll keep it rolling this week against
a Carolina team that ranks # 26 in passing yards allowed per game over
the last four weeks. Culpepper creates some matchup problems I don’t
think the Panthers can solve. Of course, he’ll be throwing to the
best WR tandem in the game and that never hurts. Both Randy Moss and
Cris Carter are sure starters in any league. Both have a great chance
every week of exploding. I’d even consider # 3 WR Matthew Hatchette
if you’re in the gambling mood in a very large league. The TEs
aren’t much of a factor here and when they are, the receptions
are spread around.
Washington
Passing Game vs Ram Defense Jeff George gets another start in place of the injured Brad Johnson
after a less than earth shaking performance in week 10 vs Arizona (276
yards, 0 TD, 2 interceptions). Fortunately, he gets to face a St. Louis
pass defense that’s still giving up lots of yards even with Bud
Carson helping out. They rank # 23 in passing yards allowed per game
over the last four weeks. And for the year, they rank # 29 in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing QB. As much as the Redskins would like
to control the game with RB Stephen Davis, you just have to think they’ll
be forced to throw in order to keep pace with the Rams. A bye week should
help things. WR Albert Connell has been the source of great frustration
for many Fantasy GMs but this should be a good week for him. James Thrash
is covering the # 2 WR job and he might be a good roll of the dice as
well. TE Stephen Alexander doesn’t seem to produce the numbers
you’d think he would in this offense, partly because FB Larry Centers
catches so many short passes that might have gone to the TE.
Carolina
Passing Game vs Viking Defense I’m looking for a uptick from QB Steve Beuerlein in this one.
Call it a hunch as he does have some negatives going his way with injuries
to his supporting cast. RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka is iffy, FB William
Floyd is out and center Frank Garcia (abrasion to his eye) and offensive
lineman Matt Campbell (thigh contusion) also were injured during the
New Orleans loss. Coach George Seifert is hopeful both can go Sunday.
On the plus side, he’s got two physical WRs in Donald Hayes and
Muhsin Muhammad that could give the vulnerable Viking CBs trouble. He
should have more time to throw this week against a Viking defense that’s
only recorded 7 sacks in the last 4 games. For the year, Minnesota ranks
# 26 in passing yards allowed per game. The TE situation is still shaking
itself out as Kris Mangum looks to be healthy. Only thing for certain
is no one has really stepped in to fill the Wesley Walls void.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense.
Green Bay Passing Game vs Colts Defense
First off, this assumes Brett Favre can get healthy. If he can, I like
the matchup against a Colt team that seems to play just good enough
to win. For the year, they rank # 28 in passing yards allowed per game.
It should be noted, they’ve played better lately though ranking
# 19 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. Indy
seems to jump out early and force the other team to play catch-up (which
they often come close to doing) Favre’s struggled with his RBs,
his WRs and his own health but this could be a game he surprises. He’s
kind of a “storybook” guy and this would be a great chapter
in the book. We’ll see. RB Ahman Green gets the start but he must
get his fumbling under control. WR Antonio Freeman is a likely starter
in your league although sort of like Favre, he hasn’t produced
like many thought he would. Bill Schroeder covers the #2 WR and he often
sees more passes thrown his way than does Freeman. Bubba Franks is coming
on at TE and could be a nice play.
Buffalo
Passing Game vs Chief Defense Most folks know I’m not a big Rob Johnson fan but he’s
got a good matchup this week against a KC defense that’s been awful
defending the pass. Over the last four weeks, they rank # 29 in passing
yards allowed per game. For the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing QB although there’s a chance DE Eric Hicks
will be back this week after missing time with a bad knee and that will
help the pass rush (he didn’t practice Wednesday though) Johnson
will be throwing to one of the game's best WRs in Eric Moulds. Not only
is Moulds ultra talented, but he draws by far the most targets on his
team. Sharing is great for kids but you like for your Fantasy WRs to
be ball hogs. Peerless Price and Jeremy McDaniel pick up the scraps.
RB Sammy Morris is hobbled so watch that as he’s a solid receiver
as well. TE Jay Reimersma has been a real disappointment lately although
the Chiefs are awful against TEs where they rank just # 29 in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing TE.
Miami
Passing Game vs Jets Defense I don’t know if this will be another shootout like they had
in their matchup earlier this season but the potential for the Dolphins
to score some points is definitely there. The Jets rank # 25 in passing
yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. QB Jay Fiedler should
have plenty of options available as the Dolphins are finally getting
WRs healthy. Leslie Shepherd and Oronde Gadsden have been playing well
but Tony Martin and OJ McDuffie are now in the mix. He’s probably
the least physical of the bunch but I’ve got a pretty good feeling
for Shepherd here even though he may not start with Martin healthy.
The smashing success of Lamar Smith is carrying this offense so don’t
look for too much through the air for Miami.
Tampa
Bay Passing Game vs Bear Defense
QB Shaun King looks to continue the roll against a Bear team that doesn’t
know which way it’s headed. The Bears are decent defending the
pass ranking # 18 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four
weeks but for the year, they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed to
the opposing QB. King’s playing with confidence and will likely
keep focusing on getting the ball to # 19, Keyshawn Johnson. (something
I learned from Sporting News’ Dan Pompei this week about Johnson’s
number: As you probably know, Receivers have to wear numbers in the
80’s. As a Jet rookie, all the 80’s were taken so they allowed
him to have # 19. It was such a hit with the fans and NFL Properties
(cha-ching) that even when a number in the 80’s came available,
the league granted Johnson an exception to keep # 19. It is a cool number
for a WR, I'll admit) This week, Johnson should continue to have success
against a suspect Bear Secondary. Jacquez Green has really dropped off
with King’s new found attraction for Keyshawn (wasn’t going
near “Johnson” in that sentence) RB Warrick Dunn is a nice
threat catching the ball and TE Dave Moore is a steady performer.
Philadelphia
Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense
Arizona’s offense is in shambles with injuries all around. The
trouble is these guys weren’t very good to start with, now they’re
hurt too. What this means is that the Eagles could see lots of offensive
action this week if the Cardinals can’t do anything when they have
the ball. Arizona ranks # 17 over the last four weeks in passing yards
allowed per game. But that number will probably worsen if QB Donovan
McNabb keeps throwing the ball 55 times a game as he did Sunday. Philadelphia
may be struggling to find a running game but they’re making up
for it through the air. Aeneas Williams is a tough cornerback but he
can’t cover everyone. Torrance Small and Charles Johnson should
see plenty of action. RB Stanley Pritchett catches the ball very well
and I keep thinking TE Chad Lewis will break out of his slump.
Indianapolis
Passing Game vs Packer Defense
Green Bay’s been pretty tough of late ranking # 11 in passing yards
allowed per game over the last four weeks but for the year, they come
in at # 25 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Peyton Manning’s
not a guy who’ll go wild for you in the stat column but I like
this matchup. The Packers have a couple of defensive players either
hobbled or out and Manning should have time to throw. That’s dangerous.
WR Marvin Harrison draws the majority of passes from Manning and that’s
just the way we like it. Jerome Pathon seems to have taken the # 2 job
away from Terrence Wilkins. Both Marcus Pollard and Ken Dilger are solid
TEs and I’d feel ok starting either in leagues that required one.
Of course, RB Edgerrin James is a huge asset catching the ball out of
the backfield.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either
way.
New England Passing Game vs Bengal Defense The Bengals are playing harder for new coach Dick LeBeau but their
pass defense and secondary is still fairly porous. Over the last four
weeks, they rank # 27 in passing yards allowed per game. Although for
the year, they rank # 14 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB.
This week, the health of Drew Bledsoe’s right thumb is on everyone’s
mind. He says he’ll play and is calling it “not an issue”.
We’ll see. Troy Aikman hobbled onto the field last week and lit
this Bengal team up. If Bledsoe’s healthy, he could do even better.
Terry Glenn and Troy Brown are the prime guys with Glenn still the main
target. He showed an upswing last week after a few worrisome games.
He just signed a nice contract so let’s see if he can start earning
it. TE Eric Bjornson fell quickly. He was starting a few weeks ago and
now he’s unemployed. Rod Rutledge is the new TE and would be a
great pickup if he’s available. He caught 3 passes last week including
a TD.
Pittsburgh
Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense It’s hard to get too excited about Kordell Stewart throwing
the ball but this is a decent matchup for him. Jacksonville ranks #
21 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. They
rank # 27 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Last week, they
let Seattle roll up the yards and Jon Kitna is hardly Peyton Manning.
WRs Hines Ward and Courtney Hawkins are the new starting WR tandem and
it’ll be interesting to see if benching 1st round underachiever
Plaxico Burress makes any difference. Truthfully, you’re reaching
if you’re digging down for these guys though. RB Jerome Bettis
is the only viable starter on this offense unless you’re in a really
big league.
New
York Jets Passing Game vs Dolphin Defense After the Indy loss last week, coach Al Groh was giving votes of
confidence to Vinny Testeverde. That’s usually not a good sign.
But remember, the last time these teams met, Vinny went wild with 378
yards passing and 5 TDs. Miami recovered nicely from that meltdown and
has only allowed 9 TDs in the last 4 games. The Dolphins boast two of
the best corners in the game in Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain. Madison
can shut anyone down and Wayne Chrebet will have his hands full (although
he had a great game in the first matchup) Dedric Ward is the # 2 WR
but I like the rookie Laveranues Coles to do some nice things here.
Worth a shot maybe if you’re strapped for WRs. Miami has enough
faith in their CBs that they often leave them on the island in man coverage
which can lead to a big play. TE Anthony Becht is showing some nice
flashes. Like Green Bay’s Bubba Franks, it took a little while
to get these big guys going.
Kansas
City Passing Game vs Bill Defense I’m guessing QB Elvis Grbac comes out of the chute firing.
The Chiefs desperately need this game and it’s clear to see that
Grbac winging the football gives this team the best chance of winning.
The Bills play a solid pass defense ranking # 13 in passing yards allowed
per game over the last four weeks and ranking # 10 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing QB for the year. TE Tony Gonzalez remains the
focal point of the offense although the Bills rank # 4 in the league
in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year. WRs Derrick
Alexander and Sylvester Morris make a solid tandem and RB Tony Richardson
does a nice job receiving out of the backfield although you never know
what coach Gunther Cunningham will do with his RBs.
San
Diego Passing Game vs Bronco Defense Remember that the Bengals spanked this Denver team so anything
can happen. This time of year, I get a fair amount of email from owners
with great rosters who have to decide between 2 QBs like Peyton Manning
or Daunte Culpepper. That’s great. Think about poor Mike Riley—he’s
got to decide between Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Leaf… Harbaugh said
he’s ready to go and is calling his injury a “mild” hernia.
He was named the starter early in the week. But with Riley’s rock
solid management style, he’s now starting Leaf. I’m not sure
it really matters. TE Freddie Jones is the only viable starter on that
team but he’s pretty darn good ranking # 2 in my TD / Performance
league over the last three weeks. Denver ranks just # 27 in in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year so he could do some damage
here. Both QBs will throw to him so it really doesn’t matter who
gets the nod. WRs Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham are too inconsistent
to get excited about.
Oakland
Passing Game vs Saints Defense
Both these teams took a beating last week with the Raiders losing a
heartbreaker to Denver and the Saints losing their star RB Ricky Williams
to a broken ankle. The Saints have actually been pretty weak on pass
defense lately ranking # 24 in passing yards allowed per game. They
are better for the year where they rank # 7 in Fantasy Points allowed
to the opposing QB. It’ll be interesting. QB Rich Gannon will be
scrambling and improvising as usual. WR Tim Brown is the primary target
but James Jett and Andre Rison will see some action as well. He’s
up and down but TE Ricky Dudley might have a chance as New Orleans ranks
# 18 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year. RB Tyrone
Wheatley is looking very questionable for this week with two sprained
ankles which will probably force Gannon to throw more.
St.
Louis Passing Game vs Redskin Defense We see it every year it seems yet so many teams fail to heed the
wisdom of acquiring a solid backup QB. Both real NFL teams and Fantasy
teams need one to be successful. Kurt Warner is getting antsy on the
sidelines so you know QB Trent Green wants to shine for another game
or two before turning the keys to the car back over. Make no mistake,
Green wants to win for the Rams but he knows he’s playing for a
contract. Green will be a starter somewhere in 2001 and with every TD,
his negotiating power is strengthened. He should fare well even though
Washington is a tough defense. Partly due to the loss of RB Marshall
Faulk where Green will likely be forced to the air often (as if he needs
a reason to pass…) Faulk made a bit of noise about returning for
this game and he did practice some Thursday. Even if he does play, it’s
hard to envision him as a real factor. The trouble with St. Louis is
picking the WRs that will score each week. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt
are the two best choices but Az-Zahir Hakim and Ricky Proehl are not
bad options either. And just for good measure, TE Roland Williams has
been effective. Washington’s secondary featuring Deion Sanders,
Champ Bailey and Darrell Green are a superb unit but they’ll have
their hands full with St. Louis.
Baltimore
Passing Game vs Cowboy Defense Dallas shut down the Bengal passing game last week. Now that’s
something to be proud of… This week, they’ll face a rejuvenated
Baltimore passing game that’s flying high. QB Trent Dilfer is doing
a great 1999 Tony Banks impression as coach Brian Billick breathes life
into another troubled career. His primary target is TE Shannon Sharpe
and I don’t think that will change for this week. Dallas only ranks
# 21 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE so he could blow up.
For opposing QBs, Dallas ranks # 13 in Fantasy Points allowed per game
for the year. WRs Qadry Ismail and Patrick Johnson are decent plays
as well against a secondary that will be without Cheatsheets.net honorary
captain / enforcer George Teague who’s gone for the year. That
will be a factor as Teague's a leader on the field. Still though, as
poor as the Cowboy run defense has been, you’d have to think the
Ravens will focus on running the ball with Jamal Lewis.
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense.
Chicago Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense
Let’s put it this way: Tampa Bay held the Packers to 205 yards
passing last week. Shane Matthews will start for the Bears. I’ve
seen Shane Matthews play and he’s no Brett Favre. He’s not
even a Matt Hasselbeck. The Bears are in shambles losing another game
to Buffalo and losing another starting QB to injury. Offensive Coordinator
Gary Crowton is rumored to be headed to Brigham Young and many fans
aren’t sad to see him talk about going. In fact, some wish he’d
stop talking about and just go already… This could get ugly for
Matthews. Although, it should be noted, the Bucs have a tougher reputation
than their numbers would support. Over the last four weeks, they rank
just # 15 in passing yards allowed per game. They rank # 11 in in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing QB for year. Solid numbers but not quite
as dominating as Warren Sapp would have you believe. Still though, I’d
shy away from most all the Bears this week. I’d maybe roll the
dice on Marcus Robinson if you needed a WR but it’s sketchy at
best. In fact, Matthews seemed to lock in on Eddie Kennison last week
instead of Robinson when he was thrust into action. Whether this is
a real tendency remains to be seen but I’d be hesitant to bank
on any of these guys too heavily this week.
Detroit
Passing Game vs Giant Defense
I have never liked Charlie Batch. I think it stems from the fact he
looks like Otis Sistrunk but bottom line is I’ve never been comfortable
with the guy. I’m getting less comfortable with each week it seems.
Sunday, Batch faces a tough Giants defense that has CB Jason Sehorn
back. They rank # 10 over the past four weeks in passing yards allowed
per game. Sehorn and CB Dave Thomas are both big players who give up
very little physically to WRs Johnnie Morton and Herman Moore. Moore
seems to be finally waking up. He’ll likely face Thomas who’s
not nearly as good as Sehorn. TE David Sloan has a shot as the Giants
rank # 26 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year
but keep an eye on him as he’s questionable (hamstring / back).
New
York Giant Passing Game vs Lion Defense Detroit may be struggling to throw the ball but they’re doing
a pretty good job defending the pass. They rank # 8 in passing yards
allowed per game over the last four weeks. I like QB Kerry Collins but
he’ll need some healthy receivers to do anything. Ike Hilliard
is good to go but both Amani Toomer and Joe Jurevicius were talking
gibberish on the sidelines Sunday after suffering concussions. Both
seem likely to play but you have to wonder how effective they’ll
be. The Lions are much more vulnerable against the run so it’s
conceivable the Giants could go with heavy doses of RBs Ron Dayne with
some Tiki Barber mixed in for this one.
San
Francisco Passing Game vs Falcon Defense I’m still a huge Jeff Garcia backer but I’m not too high
on this matchup vs the Falcons. Especially with WR Terrell Owens looking
less likely to play as the week progresses. The good news is that Jerry
Rice looks to be ok for Sunday. Atlanta ranks # 7 in passing yards allowed
per game over the last four weeks so they’re solid. The secondary
ranks 2nd in the league with 15 interceptions. They’re not as tough
for the year though where they rank # 20 in Fantasy Points allowed to
the opposing QB. Atlanta has 10 sacks in the last 4 games so they’re
getting decent pressure on the QB. The key as I see it will be developing
the running game with Charlie Garner. He’s having a great year
running and receiving the ball.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense.
Cleveland Passing Game vs Titan Defense The worst thing that could have happened to the Browns was for
the Ravens to spoil the Titan’s perfect record at home last week.
I’m betting you see a fired up defense this week that could spell
doom for QB Doug Pederson and the Browns. Tennessee ranks # 9 in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing QB for the year. Pederson’s been
painful to watch and it won’t be any prettier this week. WRs Kevin
Johnson and Dennis Northcutt will see most of the work but I’d
have a tough time feeling very good about starting either. In fact,
you can pretty much just skip the Cleveland team this week.
Cincinnati
Passing Game vs Patriot Defense I doubt you’re still interested in Fantasy Football in week
12 if you have many Bengals on your roster. Here’s all you need
to know: Scott Mitchell vs Bill Belichick. Belichick may have his faults,
but he’s the master at confusing a QB. It could get ugly. On the
flip side, there’s always that shred of hope Mitchell returns to
his 1995 form and lights it up. But I kinda doubt it… Outside of
Corey Dillon, WR Peter Warrick is the only other possible FF starter
on offense. Warrick’s always worth a roll of the dice just for
his big play potential.
Arizona
Passing Game vs Eagle Defense This is almost unfair. The Cardinals are already one of the worst
teams in the league. Now they have to deal with: Center Mike Gruttadauria
is done for the year. WRs David Boston’s hamstring is worse than
it was last week (when it was bad) and Frank Sanders has a serious knee
bruise. RB Michael Pittman’s ribs are killing him and Thomas Jones
has walking pneumonia. Good grief. If someone goes to jail and has their
wife leave them, it’ll be a Country Western song… Unless you’re
desperate, I’d avoid all the Cardinals this week against just about
any team. Much less the Eagles who are playing very good defense right
now.
Jacksonville
Passing Game vs Steeler Defense The above three offenses (Cleveland, Cincinnati and Arizona) make
the “Slam Dunk” list because the offenses are awful. The Jags
are struggling with injuries still but they land here because the Steelers
are playing excellent defense. Pittsburgh ranks # 4 in passing yards
allowed per game over the last four weeks and rank # 3 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing QB for the year. Remember, it was against the
Steelers when QB Mark Brunell was benched for Jamie Martin back in week
5. Brunell will throw to WR Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell but I’m
not looking for a lot from either guy. The game is in Pittsburgh at
night and that’s a long ways from Jacksonville both in miles and
more importantly, temperature. TE Kyle Brady has calmed down since Jimmy
Smith is back healthy although he’s a decent play against a tough
defense.
Dallas
Passing Game vs Raven Defense Troy Aikman will find the going tougher this week against a fired
up Raven team than he did against the Bengals last week. Baltimore ranks
# 2 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Over
the last four games, they rate # 3 in passing yards allowed per game.
Aikman will look for James McNight and Jason Tucker (man that sounds
weird) but don’t expect the same success you saw last week from
these guys. In case you were wondering, Baltimore is also ranked # 3
in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing TE for the year so Jackie
Harris and David LaFluer don’t look good either.
Tennessee
Passing Game vs Brown Defense
One of the cornerstone principles of Fantasy Football is you have to
understand that the numbers rule. It’s easy to look at the Browns
and dismiss them as awful but in certain areas, such as pass defense,
they’re very good in the numbers department. For the year, Cleveland
ranks # 5 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing QB. Over the last
four games, they rank # 2 in passing yards allowed per game. The reasons
for doing so are different but they’re putting up pass defense
numbers very similar to what the Ravens are posting. In Cleveland’s
case, teams are choosing to run the ball against their vulnerable rush
defense. Why risk a pass when the defense is begging to be run over?
QB Steve McNair will be looking to WRs Derrick Mason and Chris Sanders.
Carl Pickens and Yancey Thigpen could play but you’ve been burned
enough by these guys already. TE Frank Wycheck is still the primary
receiver although McNair is spreading the ball around a little more.
Denver
Passing Game vs Charger Defense After a few weeks of flailing about, the Chargers are back
at the top of the defensive rankings. Over the last four weeks,
they rank # 1 in passing yards allowed per game where they faced
Miami, Seattle and Oakland. Granted, that’s not like shutting
down St. Louis but holding those teams to an average of 128 yards
passing per game is strong. They’ll be facing new QB Gus
Frerotte who’ll likely take a bit to get settled. WRs Ed
McCaffrey and Rod Smith are both solid. Denver’s still using
the 3 TE set with Desmond Clark, Dwayne Carswell and Byron Chamberlain
all producing. I like all the Broncos and I can see them starting
in many leagues, I’m just not too happy about the matchup
this week.
Rushing Game Matchups:
-LOCKS: These games heavily favor the Offense.
Tennessee’s Eddie George vs Brown Defense Assuming Eddie George can get his injured toe healthy (and I think
he can) he could have a monster game against a Brown Defense that’s
been terrible against the rush. For the year, they rank # 26 in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing RB and they rank # 27 in rushing yards
allowed per game over the last four weeks. The Titans will likely be fired
up after a stinging loss at home to the Ravens and I expect George to
take out some frustrations on the Browns.
Miami’s
Lamar Smith vs Jets Defense
You’ll have to look awfully hard to find a hotter RB than Lamar
Smith. In their week 8 matchup, he ran for 2 TDs and 155 yards. At the
time, it seemed like a fluke but Smith has maintained almost that pace
since then. Jay Fiedler and the passing game provide just enough threat
to keep the defenses semi honest and Smith does the rest. Over the last
four weeks, the Jets rank # 26 in rushing yards allowed per game.
New
York Giant’s Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber vs Lion Defense
As you know by now, the Giants running game is governed by how close
they keep the game. Coach Jim Fassell abandons the ground game (especially
Ron Dayne’s role) when the Giants start to trail. Against a less
than explosive Lions team, the Giants ought to be able to keep this
very close if not lead most of the way. Detroit’s been weak defending
the run over the last four weeks where they rank # 25 in rushing yards
allowed per game.
Indianapolis’
Edgerrin James vs Packer Defense
Green Bay’s allowing 135 yards rushing per game over the last four
week which ranks them # 22. James should continue to roll this week
against a Packer Defense that’s missing LB Brian Williams who’s
out with a knee injury. DE Vonnie Holiday may be limited but he looks
like he’ll play and that’s some concern but I still look for
James to romp.
Baltimore’s
Jamal Lewis vs Cowboy Defense
The Cowboys gave up their 200 yard rushing days to quick slasher RBs
Charlie Garner and Duce Staley but I’m guessing power running Jamal
Lewis (who’s almost as quick as those guys) will be a great play
against Dallas. For the season, Dallas ranks # 28 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing RB. Look for him to catch the ball out of the
backfield as well.
-PRIME MATCHUPS: These games favor the Offense
San Diego’s Terrell Fletcher / Jermaine Fazande vs Bronco Defense
Over the last four week, Denver ranks # 31 in rushing yards allowed
per game. This game smells a lot like the Denver / Bengal game to me.
Winless team comes into town with a big power back and nothing to lose.
We all remember Corey Dillon’s record setting day and many remember
Jermaine Fazande’s big day rushing in the last game of 1999 against
the Broncos. Terrell Fletcher is working his way into the mix and that’s
really muddying the waters. Keep an eye on this one and if it looks
like one of these guys will garner the bulk of the carries, he could
be worth a flyer.
Philadelphia’s Stanley Pritchett / Darnell Autry vs Cardinal
Defense
The Arizona defense remains pretty weak against the rush. They rank
# 29 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. For
the year, they rank # 31 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.
The trick is determining which Eagle RB will get the carries. I like
Pritchett because he’s bigger and can bull doze his way through
the Cards. I’ve been down on Autry as I believe you’re supposed
to have the acting career after the football career, not the other way
around…
Arizona’s
Michael Pittman vs Eagle Defense
Watch this one closely as Pittman is struggling to get healthy with
bruised ribs. If he can go, I like the matchup this week. Philadelphia
ranks # 30 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks.
They’re stronger over the year where they rank # 18 in Fantasy
Points allowed to the opposing RB. Thomas Jones is in worse shape with
pneumonia so Pittman has incentive to get out there.
Buffalo’s
Sammy Morris / Shawn Bryson vs Chief Defense
Morris battling a bad ankle and looks to be a game time decision. Bryson
is plenty capable if he can’t go. The Chiefs are an attractive
matchup as they rank # 28 in rushing yards allowed per game over the
last four weeks. They rank # 27 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing
RB for the year. Watch this one closely to see if the Bills offer hints
to who’ll they’ll go with.
Green
Bay’s Ahman Green vs Colt Defense
With Dorsey Levens out again, Green will be asked to carry the load
The Colts are vulnerable to the rush ranking # 24 in rushing yards allowed
per game over the last four weeks. If Brett Favre can play, that’ll
be a nice boost for Green as the defense won’t be able to key on
stopping the ground game.
Cincinnati’s
Corey Dillon vs Patriot Defense
How much would you rely on Scot Mitchell if you were Dick LeBeau? Me
neither. Whether it’s Akili Smith or Scott Mitchell under center,
it’s still the Corey Dillon Show. New England has shown itself
to vulnerable against the rush ranking # 23 in rushing yards allowed
per game over the last four weeks. Dillon knows he needs to carry the
team and he’ll do his best. His success will depend on how effect
Mitchell can be in drawing the defense’s attention toward the passing
game.
-EVEN MATCHUPS: These games feature no real advantage either
way
San Francisco’s Charlie Garner vs Falcon Defense
Charlie Garner continues his great season against a Falcon team that’s
playing better rush defense than it had been. For the year, Atlanta
ranks # 30 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB but over the
last four weeks, they rate # 19 in rushing yards allowed per game. If
they’re without WR Terrell Owens again, Garner will be asked to
carry a little more of the load, something he’s gladly done all
year.
Pittsburgh’s Jerome Bettis vs Jaguar Defense
With the WR shuffling going on in Pittsburgh, I think Bettis is really
the only Steeler worthy of starting in most leagues. He’s a solid
performer though that should have another good day grinding the ball
out. Jacksonville ranks # 18 over the last four weeks in rushing yards
allowed per game. For the year, they rank # 20 in Fantasy Points allowed
to the opposing RB. It’ll be power football as the Steeler just
line up and try to run over the Jaguars.
New
England’s J.R. Redmond / Kevin Faulk vs Bengal Defense
The Bengals are tough to predict. For the last four weeks, they rank
# 17 in rushing yards allowed per game and for the year they come in
at # 14 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. But they absolutely
shut down RB Emmitt Smith last week. I look for Redmond and Faulk to
have moderate success against this improving unit. Redmond is questionable
with ribs so keep an eye on this one.
Chicago’s
James Allen vs Buccaneer Defense
As with the pass defense, Tampa Bay is good but not quite as dominant
as their reputation. For the last four weeks, they rank # 16 in rushing
yards allowed per game allowing 106 per game. For the year, they rate
# 9 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RBs so it’s not like
they’re invincible. With Shane Matthews behind center and scaring
no one though, it could be a long day.
Washington’s
Stephen Davis vs Ram Defense
As is so often the case, the Redskins could be forced to abandon their
running game if the Rams jump out early. Washington would dearly love
to establish Stephen Davis on the ground but they may not be able to
if they’re forced to play catchup. The Rams rate # 15 over the
last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game. For the year, they
check in at # 23 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. Even
with Bud Carson helping coach the defense, they can be run upon.
Atlanta’s
Jamal Anderson vs 49er Defense
Jamal Anderson continues to make solid improvement and he seems close
to his 1998 form to me. He’ll face a 49er Defense that can definitely
be run on. Over the last four weeks, they rate # 14 in rushing yards
allowed per game but for the year, they rank # 29 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing RB. Not unlike the situation with Washington,
the running back’s success largely hinges on the ability of the
defense to hang tough. Anderson can be taken out of the game if the
Falcons can’t hold Jeff Garcia and company down in the passing
game.
Minnesota’s
Robert Smith vs Panther Defense
I’ve said for years I’d love to see Robert Smith play a full
season and now we’re seeing that could look like. He’s having
a great year and I think he’ll continue to have success against
Carolina. They’ve been pretty strong lately against the rush ranking
# 11 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks but
for the year, they rank # 24 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing
RB. If the Vikings can control Carolina’s Steve Beuerlein (no small
feat), it’ll help Smith’s chances immensely
-DOWNSIDE MATCHUPS: These games favor the Defense
Jacksonville’s Fred Taylor vs Steeler Defense
Fred Taylor is beginning to work his way out most Fantasy GM’s
dog house as he continues to be a bright spot on a team without many
bright spots. He’s been running hard but this will be a real gut
check for him as he squares off against a very tough Steeler rush defense
that’s only allowed 2 TDs over the last four games. Pittsburgh
ranks # 3 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB
and Taylor will have his hands full.
Carolina’s
Tshimanga Biakubutuka vs Viking Defense
Biakabutuka remains very questionable with a bad toe and the Panthers
don’t sound very optimistic about him playing Sunday. Keep an eye
on it as he was able to play through the pain last week. Although it
seems to be worse this week than last. If he can’t go, you’ll
see undrafted rookie FB Brad Hoover get the start. Don’t ask me
how that happens. Minnesota is decent against the run ranking # 12 over
the last four games in rushing yards allowed per game and # 17 for the
year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.
Tampa
Bay’s Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Bear Defense
Most people including myself thought new offensive coordinator Les Steckel
would involve Mike Alstott more in Frank Wycheck type roles. Hasn’t
happened yet but it’ll be interesting to see if they start getting
the big guy the balls in creative ways. I’m sure his fumbling problems
are still a huge concern but of course that’s not something a guy
like Tony Dungy talks very publicly about. The Bears are decent against
the run ranking # 9 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed
per game but for the year, they check in at # 21 in Fantasy Points allowed
to the opposing RB.
Denver’s
Terrell Davis vs Charger Defense
Davis scared everyone this week when it was reported he had a problem
with his calf. He says it’s overblown and was calling it just “tightness”
below the knee. He’ll need to be as healthy as possible this week
as the Chargers have been playing strong rush defense of late ranking
# 2 in rushing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks. For
the year, they’re still ranked # 15 in Fantasy Points allowed to
the opposing RB reflecting some of their earlier struggles. The Broncos
desperately need Davis to shoulder the load with Brian Griese out and
it’ll be interesting to see how he responds. It’s a tough
matchup, but I bet he does well.
St.
Louis’ Justin Watson vs Redskin Defense
The good news for Watson is that he doesn’t have to worry about
Trung Canidate. The bad news is Robert Holcomb saw a good bit of work
at tailback this week and Marshall Faulk is even making noise about
playing Monday. Faulk did practice some Thursday but coach Mike Martz
still remains pessimistic about him seeing much action this week. Keep
an eye on it as I’m sure it’ll be a top story but right now,
he doesn’t look to be a big factor. The Redskin rush defense is
solid ranking # 8 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed
per game and # 6 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing
RB.
-DEFENSIVE SLAM DUNKS: These games heavily favor the Defense
Cleveland’s Travis Prentice / Jamel White vs Titan Defense
The Browns catch Tennessee at an awful time as the Titans are coming
off a frustrating loss at home to Baltimore and will likely be looking
to vent some frustrations this week. Cleveland looks to bear the brunt
of that situation. Prentice and White have been unexceptional lately
and I don’t see them improving against a tough Titan Defense. Over
the last four weeks, Tennessee ranks # 7 in rushing yards allowed per
game. They also rank # 7 for the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the
opposing RB. These guys may do in a pinch on other weeks but I don’t
see it this Sunday.
Detroit’s
James Stewart vs Giant Defense
Stewart is still a starter in many leagues but I don’t like his
matchup here. (Although you can’t discount the time he ran wild
on Tampa Bay with an awful matchup too) The Giants rank # 1 for the
year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. For the last four
weeks, they rank # 6 in rushing yards allowed per game. That’s
strong. Having a healthy Jason Sehorn back will help the entire defense
as it allows more safety help to commit to the run.
Oakland’s
Napoleon Kaufman vs Saints Defense
Keep an eye on it, but at this point Tyrone Wheatley is looking very
questionable with not one but two bad ankle sprains. His most recent
sprain is thought to be worse than the first sprain on the other ankle
that was limiting him already. Kaufman struggles a bit as the sole RB
and Saints are RB Killers. For the year, they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points
allowed to the opposing RB and over the last four games, they check
in at # 5 in rushing yards allowed per game. One ray of hope for Oakland
is that DT Norman Hand is questionable with bone chips in his ankle
although they believe he can play even though he hasn’t practiced
this week.
Kansas
City’s RB committee vs Bills Defense
By now you probably know better than to risk starting any RB wearing
a Chief uniform. This week’s a good week to follow that rule as
the Bills are playing excellent rush defense. They rank # 4 over the
last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per game and the rate # 5 for
the year in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB. I shy away from
Chief RBs against any team but especially a defense this tough. If you
don’t have any choice, Kimble Anders will get the “start”
but expect to see plenty of Tony Richardson and Frank Moreau. Richardson
in particular does a nice job receiving the ball.
Dallas’
Emmitt Smith vs Raven Defense
Let’s put it this way: Smith was shut down by Cincinnati last week.
And the Ravens are a just a tad bit better than the Bengals when it
comes to run defense. If anyone can bounce back, it’s Smith but
last Sunday was very worrisome. The Ravens are flying high after a huge
road win at Tennessee. He’s still a solid RB but Smith will have
his hands more than full Sunday. The Ravens rank # 3 in rushing yards
allowed per game over the last four weeks and for the year they rate
# 2 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.
New
York Jets’ Curtis Martin vs Dolphin Defense
I don’t see a repeat of the week 8 meltdown from Miami on defense.
Martin will have a tough day ahead of him against the Dolphin defense
that ranks # 10 over the last four weeks in rushing yards allowed per
game. Over the season, they rank # 8 in Fantasy Points allowed to the
opposing RB. The Dolphins were hopeful LB Zach Thomas could return but
that’s not looking too likely now. It’ll be even tougher for
Martin if he does.
New
Orleans Jerald Moore / Chad Morton vs Raider Defense
New Orleans catches a tough break as the new RBs are forced to make
their first start facing the # 1 rush defense in rushing yards allowed
per game over the last four weeks. For the year, they’re not quite
as tough ranking # 12 in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing RB.
It’s tough to call right now how the carries will be distributed
as the Saints are understandably being tight lipped. I expect Moore
to carry most of the load to begin with. He’s the more physical
back and much more like Williams than is Morton who falls closer to
the scat back / 3rd down guy mold. I can envision something similar
to the rotation New England is using with J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk.
For FF purposes, you’d of course like to see one guy take over
but I don’t see that now. The other wild card is newly signed Terry
Allen who sounds excited about football again. We’ll see how quickly
he can get comfortable.
Joe
Bryant is the owner of www.cheatsheets.net.
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