As most fantasy drafts are quickly approaching
for local leagues or on the various Internet sites it's very apparent
that definite trends are being established for the 2001 draft. During
the past few weeks I have compiled reports and observed many mock
drafts just to gather a feel as to where players are being selected.
From these statistics I tried to develop a gameplan for generating
a standard approach to drafting. Ten years as a defensive coordinator
in high school football taught me that almost always everyone follows
the established trend. So why would this change in fantasy football?
Try to remember when you first found these fantasy football sites
on the Internet. All of a sudden you found the magical success to
your league's championship. Now try to find an individual who doesn't
have a preferred fantasy site or reading one of the numerous fantasy
football magazines that are being published. Therefore, with this
information so readily available, the majority of drafts are going
to follow a general pattern.
With the draft laying the groundwork for for around 90% of your
fantasy season, being aware of these trends will assist you in the
development of your personal cheatsheet for your upcoming draft.
On draft day the greatest strength to a successful draft is your
ability to adjust to various selections as the occur. Develop your
cheatsheets knowing the upside and downside projections of each
player but also along the lines where other owners may slot players.
Stress maximum value rather than positional rank. Become well acquainted
with your league's scoring system and make "key players" a personal
priority. Personally, I have enjoyed reading and examining the theories
behind the draft processes. So without getting further involved
with draft concepts lets examine where players are being drafted.
Since most of us are involved in 10, 12, and 14 teams leagues, I'm
going to approach the median in my presentation. Again, remember
that these are tendencies only and will vary from draft to draft.
Hopefully, this information will categorize your theory of drafting
in 2001.
1st Round Definites
Marshall Faulk
Edgerrin James
Eddie George
Fred Taylor
Duante Culpepper
Kurt Warner
Peyton Manning
Jamal Lewis
Randy Moss
Stephen Davis
Faulk and James are definitely 1-2 with no definite order. The order
of the next selections depends upon the league scoring system. Warner
or Culpepper go higher where quarterback scoring is more heavily
weighted. If not the run on running backs continues. Moss is pretty
consistent in the # 8-10 position. Manning has shown a tendency
to slip in the more recent drafts but is definitely a top 15 selection.
Late 1st Round - Early 2nd Round Choices
Marvin Harrison
Ahman Green
Ricky Williams
Curtis Martin
Corey Dillon
Generally speaking, the teams selecting at the end of the first
rounds are grabbing the remaining player of this group at the beginning
of the second round. The trend is to select at least one quality
running back. Surprisingly, I've seen several teams choose both
wide receivers securing that position for their team. This in itself
may become a wise approach because the remaining running backs will
all have questionable concerns. More often, the selection of two
running backs is the most popular choice for those people drafting
with late first round choices. Martin's value has been constantly
rising throughout the past few weeks.
2nd Round Definites
Terrell Davis
Terrell Owens
Issac Bruce
Lamar Smith
Torry Holt
James Stewart
Tony Gonzalez
At this point of the draft, the majority of teams have stabilized
their running backs. Therefore, one has to become aware of the upcoming
trend to select QBs and WRs in this and the next round. There are
several highly ranked remaining choices available at both positions.
If a non-RB was selected in the first round the majority are almost
definitely selecting a running back selection at this point. If
your playing in a TE required league the choice of Gonzalez may
be a good strategy move because Tony is like a wide receiver and
far superior to any other TE. James Stewart's adjustment to the
new Lions offense has led to his stock rising. Bruce and Holt flip-flop
in most drafts but both are excellent choices. Smith concerns me
because he has only proven himself for one year and he is in a contract
dispute. I also question the effectiveness of Owens until the 49ers
stabilize their running back situation but at times he has been
a first round selection.
Late 2nd Round - Early 3rd Round Choices
Duce Staley
Rod Smith
Warrick Dunn
Ricky Watters
Jeff Garcia
Eric Moulds
Its obvious that the teams in the early rounds are after the 2 solid
running back, or a quality receiver. Some at this point may look
to acquire a QB that they really want especially due to the fact
that QB selections are going to increase in the next 20 picks. Again,
if your league is QB-dominant you may want to look at that area
in this early position. Recently, Rich Gannon and Brian Griese have
found their way into the second round in some drafts. Garcia value
has fluctuated in recent drafts. Dunn is solid here in a combination
or yardage league but drops down in a scoring only format. Emmitt
Smith and Jamal Anderson also have appeared in this area in numerous
drafts.
3rd Round Definites
Tiki Barber
Brian Griese
Michael Bennett
Jamal Anderson
Cris Carter
LaDainian Tomilson
Joe Horn
Derrick Alexander
Rich Gannon
Donovan McNabb
The middle of the third round is very puzzling Personally, I believe
this is the round that brings fear into the fantasy owner. One becomes
very puzzled as to what direction to travel. Most feel its time
to acquire another RB or secure a promising QB. The wideouts available
are showing a tendency to drop into the next round. Two rookies
Tomilson and Bennett appear during this round with LaDainian showing
the greater value. This is definitely the time to latch onto one
of the young QBs if you feel that you desperately need one of these
players.
Late 3rd - Early 4th Round Choices
Emmitt Smith
Ed McCaffery
Brett Favre
Trent Green
Charlie Garner
Jerome Bettis
As throughout this round the drafter now begins to look for balance
in his lineup. Many will look for the one quality QB, the 2 RBs
and at least one quality WR during these four rounds.. Most will
want a proven veteran at this stage which indicates the majority
of choices above. Emmitt's value is wavering from late 2nd round
to the 5th round. There is a mixed feeling on Garner as to whether
he will split time with Wheatley and he often slides into the 5th
round. There exists uncertainty with Green and Favre as they often
fall into the next round. However, the larger the league, the chances
of drafting a QB shows a dramatic increase in Rounds 3 -4. Be prepared
for a run on QBs because many panic at this point if they haven't
acquired one.
The Remainder of the 4th Round
Tim Brown
David Boston
Keyshawn Johnson
Shannon Sharpe
Jimmy Smith
Antonio Freeman
Freddie Jones
Thus we have 51 players for these four rounds. The positional breakdown
goes 9 QBs, 23 RBs, 16 WRs and 3 TEs. In examining these drafts,
the consistency of these selections is extremely evident. If you
examine each team at this juncture, everyone is very solid. Sharpe
and Jones rate among the top 3 TEs and usually fall between Rounds
4-5. Jimmy Smith seems 95% recovered from his stomach problems and
his value is on the incline. The fun of drafting starts with the
next round. Decisions have to be made as to what direction you're
going to travel but I feel the best avenue to follow is still the"
best player available" approach because the next few rounds
have selections with some uncertainties. Toomer and Westbrook have
entered the draft in this round in some drafts.
The 5th Round Selections
Priest Holmes
Amani Toomer
Muhsin Muhammad
Marcus Rrobinson
Elvis Grbac
Tim Biakabatuka
Tyrone Wheatley
Mike Anderson
James Allen
Chad Lewis
Germane Crowell
Michael Westbrook
Keenan McCardell
Baltimore Ravens Defense
My first course of action would be to see if any of the 1st - 4th
round selections have fallen. Expect a run on wide receivers as
50% of the choices in rounds 5-6 are from this group. There also
is strong emphasis on the 2nd or 3rd running back. If you don't
have you might want to grab one here but definitely your going to
need to select one by round six. Generally, these are fairly safe
choices but I would concern myself with the Carolina, Chicago and
Oakland running back scenes. Several players seem dropping to lower
rounds. They include Elvis Grbac, Tim Biakabatuka, James Allen,
and Mike Anderson. Peter Warrick and Joey Galloway make spot appearances.
Round 6 Choices
Michael Pittman
Frank Wycheck
Aaron Brooks
Peter Warrick
Wayne Chrebet
Derrick Mason
Joey Galloway
Tennessee Titans Defense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense
Brad Johnson
Darrell Jackson
Travis Taylor
Terry Glenn
Vinny Testaverde
Wesley Walls
Let's examine the number at this point of the draft. Out of 80 possible
selections 29 are RBs, 29 WRs, 13 QBs, 6TEs and 1 Defense. Basically
every starting running back is gone so perhaps its best to wait
and use the RB by committee approach in the next few rounds. Let's
take the Buffalo Bills for example. Select a more proven player
in this round and then come back to back with Sammy Morris and Travis
Henry in the next rounds. Check on your league's scoring table as
in some cases, a team's defense may prove more valuable than other
choices in these rounds. Pittman was rated high in early drafts
but his he has taken a gigantic tumble with his recent legal problems.
Thomas Jones may replace him at this position in the draft. The
sleeper of this group may be Testaverde. He's finally healthy and
according to reports, Vinny is prospering in the new Jets offense.
Although he is ranked low on most cheatsheets,look for his stock
to rise! The other 2 QBs Brooks and Brad Johnson have often fallen
into the lower rounds.
Round 7 Selections
Kevan Barlow
Steve McNair
James Thrash
Mark Brunell
Rob Johnson
Kerry Collins
Jeff George
Drew Bledsoe
Mike Alstott
Ron Dayne
Travis Prentice
Jay Riemersma
Thomas Jones
Sammy Morris
Matt Hasselbeck
Drafters seem to like this round to draft a backup QB or RB. Unless
there is a quality WR left on the board that concept should probably
be adopted. Many like the concept of filling out their starting
rosters at this junction however this is just too much value left
on the board. Anyways, you can expect the drafting of a backup QB
or RB in this round. The general philosophy of most owners is to
secure 1-2 QBs, 3-4 RBs and 2-3 WRs by the end of this round and
begin to fill the remaining starting roster spots in the next few
rounds. Barlow is recent weeks has seen his stock tumble rapidly
with some healthy reports on Garrison Hearst. Other players who
often drop out of round seven include Brunell, Dayne, Alstott, McNair,
Hasslebeck and Morris. The value of Thomas Jones has sky-rocketed
with Pittman's legal troubles.
Round 8 Choices
Richie Anderson
Jerry Rice
Tony Richardson
Shawn Bryson
New Orleans Saints Defense
Miami Dolphins Defense
Oakland Raiders Defense
Deuce McAllister
Bill Schroeder
Kyle Brady
Philadelphia Eagles Defense
Mike Vanderjagt
Richard Huntley
Shaun Alexander
Kevin Johnson
After 8 rounds with a possible 110 choices, 41 selections are RB,
33 WRs, 20 QBs, 8 TEs, 1 Kicker and 7 Defense Teams. In analyzing
these rounds, the general tendency of each team is to select 3-4
RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1-2 QBs depending on your starting QB and either a
TE or Defensive Team. Granted some are going to slip into the next
round but the key factor of emphasis is the depth one need to develop
at RB and QB by the middle of the draft. Some may question the QB
position but they are the most frequently injured performer with
about 2/3 of all starting QBs receiving some type of injury during
the year. This round also sees the selection of RBs who are backups
and who may challenge the present starting RB at some point of the
season. Bryson was a pre-season choice but is hardly drafted in
recent drafts.
Round 9
Jake Plummer
Dorsey Levens
Qadry Ismail
Stephen Alexander
Koren Robinson
Albert Connell
Matt Stover
Denver Broncos Defense
Bubba Franks
J. R. Redmond
Antowain Smith
Doug Flutie
Round 10
Ike Hilliard
Troy Brown
Jeff Graham
Ryan Longwell
Oronde Gadsen
Ken Dilger
Kordell Stewart
James Jackson
Tim Couch
Darnay Scott
Martin Gramatica
Rickey Dudley
Davis Terrell
Az-Zahir Hakim
Rounds 9 -10 are basically interchangeable. Backup performers dominate
these choices. A tight end is a "must" by the end of the
10th round. Again, I like the theory of drafting the same position
in two consecutive rounds especially if there is little difference
between the 2 players. Not only does this provide adequate depth
at that position but most owners rarely expect such a move and quite
often confuses them and their draft thinking. Again, if your league
emphasizes Defense, you may want to select one of the quality teams
by the end of this round. In some leagues which I have been associated,
the selection of kickers in these rounds have taken priority. The
true fantasy expert really concentrates on the upcoming rounds.
Unless you consider yourself to be extremely lucky, this is where
one utilizes his/her fantasy insights in the construction of a championship
fantasy team... the late rounds....
