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Andy Pino | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

An Insurance Policy In Drafting
8/13/02

You’ve spent hours developing your cheat sheets and drafting strategies. Fortunately you’ve drafted the player which you believe will lead you to this year’s fantasy Super Bowl, when the injury bug hits. The one player who you built your season upon is either sidelined for several weeks or place on injured reserved.

Whether it may be for a few weeks or the entire season, injuries can prove to be a intimidating test to many fantasy owners. If you have played fantasy football long enough, you most likely faced this dilemma. You scramble and hit the free agent lists, but other owners in your league have first dibs on the back-up to your player. You lose out, and your season quickly takes a turn south.

Could you have avoided this situation?

Well here in the United States we have a common practice of securing insurance on items which are important to us. Thus, the importance of acquiring backup insurance in fantasy football is often overlooked by many owners. This policy of acquiring insurance for your quality players should be applied in your draft tactics for the upcoming season. Instead of wasting a late round pick on a so- called sleeper who may develop, invest these picks in quality back-up performers for your high draft choices.

I’ve always believed that in most situations its the system, or the offensive scheme, that relates to fantasy production especially for running backs. Let’s take a look at some examples from last season.

Edgerrin James is lost for the season and Dominc Rhodes replaces him in the Colts’ starting lineup rushing for 1104 yards, receiving 224 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns.Marshall Faulk is sidelined and Trung Canidate has several outstanding games. Look what happened in Seattle after Ricky Watters suffered an injury. Shaun Alexander rushes for 1309 yards and scores 15 touchdowns. Anthony Thomas misses two games for the Bears in mid-season and James Allen averages a 100 yards rushing per contest as his replacement. Emmitt Smith goes out for the Cowboys and Troy Hambrick has two games of 77 and 127 rushing yards. Stacey Mack replaces the often injured Fred Taylor and responds with a season of 10 touchdowns and 1042 total yards. Duce Staley misses the third and fourth games of the season and Philadelphia’s backup Correll Buckhalter fills in with 233 rushing yards and a score. These examples only solidify the reasoning behind the insurance theory.

In this year’s draft its almost mandatory that you select two running backs by the end of the third round and at least three by the end of the sixth round. Realistically, the top 30 -35 running backs have been erased from your cheat sheets. In the next few rounds of drafting, one begins to concentrate on quality back-ups, rookies or the so-called sleepers. However, this should be the area where one builds depth on his roster. Looking at this from a coaching stand point, I personally would rather have a back-up running back from an established system, rather than gambling upon a so-called sleeper. And in the majority of cases, these replacements will out perform primary ball carriers from weak teams.

High Risk

If you select one of these starting running backs it becomes essential that you secure his backup. These teams will experience little drop-off in performance levels.

Denver Broncos: Terrell Davis - Olandis Gary or Clinton Portis

Green Bay Packers: Ahman Green - Ki-Jana Carter

Indianapolis Colts: Edgerrin James - Dominic Rhodes

Jacksonville Jaguars: Fred Taylor - Stacey Mack

New York Jets: Curtis Martin - LaMont Jordan

Pittsburgh Steelers: Jerome Bettis - Amos Zereoue or Chris Fuamatu-Maafala

San Francisco 49ers: Garrison Hearst - Kevan Barlow

St. Louis Rams: Marshall Faulk - Trung Canidate or Lamar Gordon

Medium Risk

The following running backs play an integral part in their team’s offensive schemes. If they are injured, these systems may be altered. It is advisable to select the backup from these teams.

Atlanta Falcons: Warrick Dunn - T.J. Duckett

Buffalo Bills: Travis Henry - Shawn Bryson or Richard Huntley

Chicago Bears: Anthony Thomas - Leon Johnson

Cincinnati Bengals: Corey Dillon - Brandon Bennett

Cleveland Browns: William Green - Jamel White or James Jackson

Dallas Cowboys: Emmitt Smith - Troy Hambrick

Miami Dolphins: Ricky Williams - Travis Minor

New Orleans Saints: Deuce McAllister - Terry Allen

New York Giants: Tiki Barber - Ron Dayne

Oakland Raiders: Charlie Garner - Tyrone Wheatley

Philadelphia Eagles: Duce Staley - Dorsey Levens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Michael Pittman - Mike Alstott

Tennessee Titans: Eddie George - Skip Hicks or Robert Holcombe

Low Risk

These teams have unproven backups, and they simply lack the talent needed to be considered in your draft. Such players are available as free-agents if needed.

Arizona Cardinals: Thomas Jones - Marcell Shipp

Baltimore Ravens: Jamal Lewis - Chester Taylor

Carolina Panthers: Lamar Smith - DeShaun Foster*

Detroit Lions: James Stewart - Lamont Warren

Houston Texans: James Allen - Jonathon Wells

Kansas City Chiefs: Priest Holmes - Mike Cloud or Tony Richardson

Minnesota Vikings: Michael Bennett - Doug Chapman

New England Patriots: Antowain Smith - J.R. Redmond

San Diego Chargers: LaDainian Tomilson - Terrell Fletcher

Seattle Seahawks: Shaun Alexander - Maurice Morris

Washington Redskins: Stephen Davis - Ladell Betts

* Note: Although he's still running with the second team, DeShaun Foster may find himself in the starting lineup if he continues his solid preseason.