Playing The Percentages - Offensive Tendencies: Andy Pino

	A Fantasy Football Community!
		Create An Account \| Advertise \| Contact

Andy Pino | Archive | Email |

Staff Writer

Playing The Percentages - Offensive Tendencies
7/20/01

I was once told that anticipation was 90% of all discipline. Fantasy football success relies on the ability to anticipate offensive tendencies for the coming season. Therefore, one must study past trends and blend them with the present. Trends are fairly predictable unless there exists a total reconstruction of both the coaching staff and personnel.

I feel the most neglected area of fantasy football is the understanding of the total offensive package of each team, including the role of the back-up players. How many times has your season been ruined when one of your starters went down with an injury? Take a look at the quarterback scenario last season with the Rams and Broncos. Having Trent Green helped me become successful in several leagues because there was very little change in the offensive output. Just examine the Broncos running back situation the past two campaigns or the Viking quarterback merry-go-round the last few seasons. It's not so much as to "who" but the strength of the supporting cast. The offensive lines of each team are the key to success and for the most cases the parts are interchangeable.

From my own coaching experiences, the most essential element to team success is the development of team depth. Teams essentially have a base offense and a predetermined philosophy. The only altercations result in the application of a few weekly wrinkles but the system is never overhauled. Always keep one thought in mind... "Consistency builds winning programs." Dependable offensive systems not players are productive to success in fantasy football. Therefore in drafting, one should perhaps concentrate on acquiring viable back-ups performers to your star players instead of chasing unknown sleepers. The free-agent wire is very unpredictable and if your enjoying success in your league that option has usually been exhausted by the time your choice is available. This philosophy often works well when two players from the same team are competing for a similar position. Most fantasy owners tend to shy away from such circumstances and "fantasy bargains" are often available at a cheap price. With this in mind, let's explore the various offensives among the NFL teams for the 2001 season. While reviewing these charts keep in mind the offensive tendencies of each team and apply these principles to your draft.

O F F E N S I V E T E N D E N C I E S % C H A R T
TEAM	TEAM ATTEMPTS ( PASS & RUN %)	TOTAL TDS (PASS & RUN) %	TDS PASSES THROWN TO (RB, WR, TE) %	% OF OFFENSE
ARI	PASSING 61.8% RUSHING 38.2%	TDS 22 PASS 73% RUN 27%	RB 13% WR 81% TE 6%	RB 59.7% WR 32.8 TE 7.5%
ATL	PASSING 59.5% RUSHING 40.5%	TDS 20 PASS 70% RUN 30%	RB 0% WR 71% TE 29%	RB 57.2% WR 32.9% TE 9.9%
BAL	PASSING 49.7 RUSHING 50.3%	TDS 29 PASS 69% RUN 31%	RB 10% WR 65% TE 25%	RB 64.1% WR 21.8% TE 14.1%
BUF	PASSING 53.5% RUSHING 46.5%	TDS 31 PASS 65% RUN 35%	RB 20% WR 50% TE 30%	RB 57.4% WR 34.7% TE 7.9%
CAR	PASSING 61.7% RUSHING 38.3%	TDS 26 PASS 73% RUN 27%	RB 21% WR 58% TE 21%	RB 52% WR 38% TE 10%
CHI	PASSING 56.5% RUSHING 43.5%	TDS 18 PASS 67% RUN 33%	RB 8% WR 83% TE 8%	RB 51.3% WR 40.6% TE 8.1%
CIN	PASSING 47.8% RUSHING 52.2%	TDS 19 PASS 32% RUN 68%	RB 0% WR 83% TE 17%	RB 63.5% WR 26.5% TE 10%
CLE	PASSING 59.0% RUSHING 41.0%	TDS 16 PASS 56% RUN 44%	RB 33% WR 33% TE 33%	RB 56.7% WR 34.2% 9.1%
DAL	PASSING 49.0% RUSHING 51.0%	TDS 29 PASS 48% RUN 52%	RB 23% WR 31% TE 46%	RB 59.7% WR 28.6% TE 11.7%
DEN	PASSING 52.4% RUSHING 47.6 %	TDS 49 PASS 57% RUN 43%	RB 11% WR 64% TE 25%	RB 53% WR 31.9% TE 15.1%
DET	PASSING 52.9% RUSHING 47.1%	TDS 29 PASS 48% RUN 52%	RB 7% WR 71% TE 21%	RB 58.8% WR 31.9% TE 9.3%
GB	PASSING 59.8 % RUSHING 40.2%	TDS 34 PASS 62% RUN 38%	RB 19% WR 67% TE 14%	RB 62.8% WR 27.5% TE 9.7%
IND	PASSING 56.8% RUSHING 43.2%	TDS 47 PASS 70% RUN 30%	RB 18% WR 64% TE 18%	RB 53% WR 34.8% TE 12.2%
JAX	PASSING 53.1% RUSHING 46.9%	TDS 40 PASS 55% RUN 45%	RB 9% WR 77% TE 14%	RB 53.5% WR 35.8% TE 10.7%
KC	PASSING 60.3% RUSHING 39.7%	TDS 41 PASS 71% RUN 29%	RB 10% WR 52% TE 38%	RB 51.6% WR 29.8% TE 18.6%
MIA	PASSING 45.9% RUSHING 54.1%	TDS 31 PASS 48% RUN 52%	RB 20% WR 73% TE 7%	RB 69.3% WR 27.8% TE 2.9%
MIN	PASSING 53.6% RUSHING 46.4%	TDS 47 PASS 70% RUN 30%	RB 9% WR 79% TE 12%	RB 54.4% WR 37.4% TE 8.2%
NE	PASSING 57.1% RUSHING 42.9%	TDS 27 PASS 67% RUN 33%	RB 16% WR 58% TE 26%	RB 56.9% WR 33.6% TE 9.5%
NO	PASSING 49.6% RUSHING 50.4%	TDS 36 PASS 61% RUN 39%	RB 9% WR 68% TE 23%	RB 64.1% WR 31.2% TE 4.7%
NYG	PASSING 51.1% RUSHING 48.9%	TDS 38 PASS 58% RUN 42%	RB 5% WR 77% TE 18%	RB 66.2% WR 27.6% TE 6.2%
NYJ	PASSING 60.4% RUSHING 39.6%	TDS 34 PASS 68% RUN 32%	RB 20% WR 60% TE 20%	RB 69.5% WR 26.8% TE 3.7%
OAK	PASSING 47.7% RUSHING 52.3%	TDS 51 PASS 55% RUN 45%	RB 11% WR 68% TE 21%	RB 68.2% WR 24.5% TE 7.3%
PHI	PASSING 59.2% RUSHING 40.8%	TDS 34 PASS 62% RUN 38%	RB 14% WR 50% TE 36%	RB 64.6% WR 19.5% TE 15.9%
PIT	PASSING 45.4% RUSHING 54.6%	TDS 31 PASS 39% RUN 61%	RB 0% WR 75% TE 25%	RB 62.1% WR 32.6% TE 5.3%
SD	PASSING 62.2 RUSHING 37.8%	TDS 26 PASS 73% RUN 27%	RB 16% WR 53% TE 32%	RB 53.9% WR 30.8% TE 15.3%
SF	PASSING 58.4% RUSHING 41.6%	TDS 47 PASS 68% RUN 32%	RB 22% WR 72% TE 6%	RB 57.4% WR 36% TE 6.6%
SEA	PASSING 55.7% RUSHING 44.3%	TDS 31 PASS 68% RUN 32%	RB 14% WR 62% TE 24%	RB 59.4% WR 30.2% TE 10.4%
STL	PASSING 60.5% RUSHING 39.5%	TDS 63 PASS 59% RUN 41%	RB 24% WR 68% TE 8%	RB 54.7% WR 42.2% TE 3.1%
TB	PASSING 46.9% RUSHING 53.1%	TDS 36 PASS 50% RUN 50%	RB 6% WR 76% TE 18%	RB 63.7% WR 28.9% TE 7.4%
TEN	PASSING 45.8% RUSHING 54.2%	TDS 32 PASS 56% RUN 44%	RB 28% WR 44% TE 28%	RB 63.8% WR 20.7% TE 15.5%
WAS	PASSING 55.7% RUSHING 44.3%	TDS 31 PASS 58% RUN 42%	RB 28% WR 61% TE 11%	RB 66.9% WR 25.1% TE 8%

P A S S I N G: 2000
PERCENTAGE OF OFFENSE - PASSING	PASSING YDS/GAME
1. San Diego 62.2% 2. Arizona 61.8% 3. Carolina 61.7% 4. St. Louis 60.5% 5. New York Jets 60.4% 6. Kansas City 60.3% 7. Green Bay 59.8% 8. Atlanta 59.5% 9. Philadelphia 59.2% 10. Cleveland 59.0% 11. San Francisco 58.4% 12. New England 57.1 13. Indianapolis 56.8% 14. Chicago 56.5% 15. Seattle 55.7% 16. Washington 55.7% 17. Minnesota 53.6% 18. Buffalo 53.5% 19. Jacksonville 53.1% 20. Detroit 52.9% 21. Denver 52.4% 22. New York Giants 51.1% 23. Baltimore 49.7% 24. New Orleans 49.6% 25. Dallas 49.0% 26. Cincinnati 47.8% 27. Oakland 47.7% 28. Tampa Bay 46.9% 29. Miami 45.9% 30. Tennessee 45.8% 31. Pittsburgh 45.4%	1. St. Louis 343.2 2. Denver 279.0 3. Indianapolis 275.8 4. Kansas City 275.5 5. San Francisco 275.0 6. New York Jets 251.4 7. Minnesota 251.2 8. Jacksonville 246.7 9. Buffalo 246.0 10. Green Bay 244.8 11. Washington 243.2 12. Carolina 240.6 13. New York Giants 225.6 14. New Orleans 223.3 15. San Diego 221.2 16. Arizona 217.4 17. New England 216.3 18. Oakland 214.4 19. Tennessee 214.4 20. Philadelphia 211.6 21. Seattle 199.9 22. Atlanta 197.9 23. Baltimore 193.9 24. Chicago 187.8 25. Detroit 187.0 26. Tampa Bay 176.5 27. Dallas 173.2 28. Pittsburgh 171.1 29. Cleveland 170.5 30. Miami 170.0 31. Cincinnati 138.7
Analysis: Teams Throwing More than 60% 258.2 yards/game Teams Throwing 58% - 59% 220.0 yards/game Teams Throwing 55% - 57% 224.6 yards/game Teams Throwing 51% - 54% 239.3 yards/game Teams Throwing 47% - 50% 188.6 yards/game Teams throwing Less than 47% 183.0 yards/game

R U S H I N G: 2000
PERCENTAGE OF OFFENSE - RUSHING	RUSHING YDS/GAME
1. Pittsburgh 54.6% 2. Tennessee 54.2% 3. Miami 54.1% 4. Tampa Bay 53.1% 5. Oakland 52.3% 6. Cincinnati 52.2% 7. Dallas 51.0% 8. New Orleans 50.4% 9. Baltimore 50.3% 10. New York Giants 48.9% 11. Denver 47.6% 12. Detroit 47.1% 13. Jacksonville 46.9% 14. Buffalo 46.5% 15. Minnesota 46.4% 16. Washington 44.3% 17. Seattle 44.3% 18. Chicago 43.5% 19. Indianapolis 43.2% 20. New England 42.9% 21. San Francisco 41.6% 22. Cleveland 41.0% 23. Philadelphia 40.8% 24. Atlanta 40.5% 25. Green Bay 40.2% 26. Kansas City 39.7% 27. New York Jets 39.6% 28. St. Louis 39.5% 29. Carolina 38.3% 30. Arizona 38.2% 31. San Diego 37.8%	1. Oakland 154.4 2. Denver 145.2 3. Cincinnati 144.6 4. Pittsburgh 140.5 5. Baltimore 137.4 6. Minnesota 133.1 7. Tennessee 130.3 8. New Orleans 129.2 9. Tampa Bay 129.1 10. Jacksonville 127.0 11. New York Giants 125.6 12. Dallas 122.1 13. Buffalo 120.1 14. Miami 118.4 15. Philadelphia 117.6 16. Indianapolis 116.2 17. St. Louis 115.2 18. San Francisco 112.6 19. Washington 109.2 20. Detroit 109.2 21. Chicago 108.5 22. Seattle 107.5 23. Green Bay 102.7 24. New York Jets 91.9 25. Kansas City 91.6 26. New England 86.9 27. Arizona 79.9 28. Atlanta 75.9 29. Carolina 74.1 30. Cleveland 67.6 31. San Diego 66.4
Analysis: Teams Running More than 52% 136.2 yards/game Teams Running 47% - 51% 128.1 yards/game Teams Running 43% - 47% 117.4 yards/game Teams Running 40% - 43% 93.9 yards/game Teams Running Less than 40% 86.5 yards/game

P A S S I N G T Ds: 2000
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL TDS - PASSED	# TDS THROWN
1. Arizona 73% 2. Carolina 73% 3. San Diego 73% 4. Kansas City 71% 5. Atlanta 70% 6. Indianapolis 70% 7. Minnesota 70% 8. Baltimore 69% 9. New York Jets 68% 10. San Francisco 68% 11. Seattle 68% 12. Chicago 67% 13. New England 67% 14. Buffalo 65% 15. Green Bay 62% 16. Philadelphia 62% 17. New Orleans 61% 18. St. Louis 59% 19. New York Giants 58% 20. Washington 58% 21. Denver 57% 22. Cleveland 56% 23. Tennessee 56% 24. Jacksonville 55% 25. Oakland 55% 26. Tampa Bay 50% 27. Dallas 48% 28. Detroit 48% 29. Miami 48% 30. Pittsburgh 39% 31. Cincinnati 32%	1. St. Louis 37 2. Indianapolis 33 3. Minnesota 33 4. San Francisco 32 5. Kansas City 29 6. Denver 28 7. Oakland 28 8. New York Jets 23 9. Jacksonville 22 10. New Orleans 22 11. New York Giants 22 12. Green Bay 21 13. Philadelphia 21 14. Seattle 21 15. Baltimore 20 16. Buffalo 20 17. Carolina 19 18. San Diego 19 19. New England 18 20. Tampa Bay 18 21. Tennessee 18 22. Washington 18 23. Arizona 16 24. Miami 15 25. Atlanta 14 26. Dallas 14 27. Detroit 14 28. Chicago 12 29. Pittsburgh 12 30. Cleveland 9 31. Cincinnati 6
Analysis: Passing TDs 70% or more 23.3 TDs/game Passing TDs 60% - 70% 21.0 TDs/game Passing TDs 50% - 60% 22.2 TDs/game Passing TDs Less than 50% 12.2 TDs/game

R U S H I N G T Ds: 2000
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL TDS - RUSHED	# TDS RUSHED
1. Cincinnati 68% 2. Pittsburgh 61% 3. Miami 52% 4. Detroit 52% 5. Dallas 52% 6. Tampa Bay 50% 7. Oakland 45% 8. Jacksonville 45% 9. Tennessee 44% 10. Cleveland 44% 11. Denver 43% 12. Washington 42% 13. New York Giants 42% 14. St. Louis 41% 15. New Orleans 39% 16. Philadelphia 38% 17. Green Bay 38% 18. Buffalo 35% 19. New England 33% 20. Chicago 33% 21. Seattle 32% 22. San Francisco 32% 23. New York Jets 32% 24. Baltimore 31% 25. Minnesota 30% 26. Indianapolis 30% 27. Atlanta 30% 28. Kansas City 29% 29. San Diego 27% 30. Carolina 27% 31. Arizona 27%	1. St. Louis 26 2. Oakland 23 3. Denver 21 4. Pittsburgh 19 5. Jacksonville 18 6. Tampa Bay 18 7. Miami 16 8. New York Giants 16 9. Dallas 15 10. Detroit 15 11. San Francisco 15 12. Indianapolis 14 13. Tennessee 14 14. Minnesota 14 15. Washington 14 16. New Orleans 14 17. Cincinnati 13 18. Green Bay 13 19. Philadelphia 13 20. Kansas City 12 21. Buffalo 11 22. New York Jets 11 23. Seattle 10 24. Baltimore 9 25. New England 9 26. Carolina 7 27. Cleveland 7 28. San Diego 7 29. Atlanta 6 30. Arizona 6 31. Chicago 6
Analysis: Rushing TDs More than 50% 16.0 TDs/game Rushing TDs 43% - 45% 16.6 TDs/game Rushing TDs 38 % - 42% 16.0 TDs/game Rushing TDs 31% - 35% 10.1 TDs/game Rushing TDs 30% or Less 9.4 TDs/game

P E R C E N T A G E O F O F F E N S E - BY POSITION: 2000
RB RUSH & REC % OF OFFENSE	WR RECEIVING % OF OFFENSE	TE RECEIVING % OF OFFENSE
1. New York Jets 69.5% 2. Miami 69.3% 3. Oakland 68.2% 4. Washington 66.9% 5. New York Giants 66.2% 6. Philadelphia 64.6% 7. Baltimore 64.1% 8. New Orleans 64.1% 9. Tennessee 63.8% 10. Tampa Bay 63.7% 11. Cincinnati 63.5% 12. Green Bay 62.8% 13. Pittsburgh 62.1% 14. Arizona 59.7% 15. Dallas 59.7% 16. Seattle 59.4% 17. Detroit 58.8% 18. Buffalo 57.4% 19. San Francisco 57.4% 20. Atlanta 57.2% 21. New England 56.9% 22. Cleveland 56.7% 23. St.Louis 54.7% 24. Minnesota 54.4% 25. San Diego 53.9% 26. Jacksonville 53.5% 27. Denver 53.0% 28. Indianapolis 53.0% 29. Carolina 52.0% 30. Kansas City 51.6% 31. Chicago 51.3%	1. St. Louis 42.2% 2. Chicago 40.6% 3. Carolina 38.0% 4. Minnesota 37.4% 5. San Francisco 36.0% 6. Jacksonville 35.8% 7. Indianapolis 34.8% 8. Buffalo 34.7% 9. Cleveland 34.2% 10. New England 33.6% 11. Atlanta 32.9% 12. Arizona 32.8% 13. Pittsburgh 32.6% 14. Denver 31.9% 15. Detroit 31.9% 16. New Orleans 31.2% 17. San Diego 30.8% 18. Seattle 30.2% 19. Kansas City 29.8% 20. Tampa Bay 28.9% 21. Dallas 28.6% 22. Miami 27.8% 23. New York Giants 27.6% 24. Green Bay 27.5% 25. New York Jets 26.8% 26. Cincinnati 26.5% 27. Washington 25.1% 28. Oakland 24.5% 29. Baltimore 21.8% 30. Tennessee 20.7% 31. Philadelphia 19.5%	1. Kansas City 18.6% 2. Philadelphia 15.9% 3. Tennessee 15.5% 4. San Diego 15.3% 5. Denver 15.1% 6. Baltimore 14.1% 7. Indianapolis 12.2% 8. Dallas 11.7% 9. Jacksonville 10.7% 10. Seattle 10.4% 11. Carolina 10.0% 12. Cincinnati 10.0% 13. Atlanta 9.9% 14. Green Bay 9.7% 15. Detroit 9.3% 16. Cleveland 9.1% 17. Minnesota 8.2% 18. Chicago 8.1% 19. Washington 8.0% 20. Buffalo 7.9% 21. Arizona 7.5% 22. Tampa Bay 7.4% 23. Oakland 7.3% 24. San Francisco 6.6% 25. New York Giants 6.2% 26. Pittsburgh 5.3% 27. New England 4.7% 28. New Orleans 4.7% 29. New York Jets 3.7% 30. St. Louis 3.1% 31. Miami 2.9%

In my next article, we'll use these numbers to come up with realistic team and position rankings based on projected passing and rushing output for this season...

Stay tuned...

FOLLOW US