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John Tierney | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

Blue Light Special
11/13/02

There is no rest for the wicked. With fantasy playoffs looming, Keeper League players have to be feeling perfectly evil. They get no rest this time of year. They must be a pain to live with as this season winds down, yet they prepare for the next. Prior planning makes for better performance. Whether you are on top at the moment, or "waiting until next year," looking ahead now will have you looking behind at the competition next season.

I looked at this year's crop of very young talent, first and second year players only, breaking them down into three categories; "Duh", "Wish I Had Taken Him", and "I'm So Tempted". The last two years has brought in some of the best young talent the league has seen. Players seem to be developing quicker, the Keeper League owner who does not stay on top of the rising talent is sure to have their season in the dumps.

Duh, as in," Why didn't I grab that guy?"
These are players who have years of success ahead of them barring injury, arrest or retirement into the ministry. No one can have consistent success in a league without quality running backs. There are several out there, but heading the list is Deuce McAllister of the Saints. (I know, some of you are saying why not Tomlinson? Bear with me.) Deuce sat most of last year only getting 16 carries and 15 receptions for a little over 250 combined yards. As of this writing he has already gained a combined total of 1070 yards with nine TD's. He added to these figures over the weekend. If New Orleans management felt strong enough about Deuce to unload Ricky Williams, they plan to have him play a major role in the offense for years to come. With a developing "young gun" in Aaron Brooks, offense in the "Big Easy" should be formidable for the foreseeable future.

LaDainian Tomlinson has been the biggest workhorse of the "Duh" category. In his first season he gained a combined 1,603 yards scoring 10 times. (For this reason alone, he runs a close second to Deuce.) Some people said he slowed towards the end of the season, but the blame should not fall on him for the ills of the Charger offense last season. This season he is well on his way to approaching MVP numbers with 845 yards rushing and 264 yards receiving. (Placing him 39 yards ahead of Deuce.) He has scored consistently and could be on his way for a 20+ touchdown season. If the team continues to be successful, the man in charge, Marty Shottenheimer, will utilize Tomlinson until he drops. With LaDainian being the focus of the Charger offense his career could be shortened as his risk for injury increases. Still…he is definitely a keeper.

Rounding out the running backs are two rapidly developing stars. Last year Travis Henry was showing up on some radar screens. He gained an impressive 908 total yards and scored four times. This year he has already exceeded those marks. He has scored 10 times placing him at or near the top in TD production for a running back. With the problem of quarterback solved, and two of the top receivers in the league, the Bills will be calling on Henry to keep the offense balanced.

For the last few season Denver has been a running back factory. Terrell Davis has retired, Mike Anderson has become a fullback and Olandis Gary was beat out by rookie Clinton Portis from Miami. Portis took over the spot in week three and has held on to it since. He has shown quickness, durability and an arsenal of moves. In his six games since becoming the starter Portis has averaged 4.9 yards per rush and 8.8 per reception. He is well on his way to gaining over a thousand yards and scoring TD's in double digits. No one will be another Terrell Davis, but he could well be the first "Clinton Portis." He is something special.

No team is complete without a solid quarterback; Michael Vick will be the solid quarterback for at least a few more years. He may run a lot risking injury, but no quarterback is tougher to hit than Mr. Vick. Though he may have missed a game due to injury this season, he will learn to protect himself more with experience. In his first year as a starter he has raised his completion rate by 14% to a respectable 58.5%. He has rushed for 414 yards with five touchdowns, this equals the number of passing TD's he has. I have heard him labeled as the best athlete in football; he is also amongst the best quarterbacks. All he needs now is a quality receiver along with better protection to be one of the most productive QB's in the league.

"Wish I Would Have Taken Him"
At this level, players making an impact now, but have the ability to explode next season. Heading this list is T.J Duckett of the Atlanta Falcons. The former Spartan from Michigan St. took over the starting position from veteran Warrick Dunn. He has missed a couple of games with nagging injuries, but with quick feet and a six foot frame carrying 254 pounds, he is a force to reckon with making him and Vick a veritable wrecking crew.

There are a few backs busy developing into prime players. A couple of them are sharing time looking to become the main man, while one is becoming, "The Man." Michael Bennett struggled his rookie year with fumbles, adjusting to the offense and learning to control his speed to follow his blockers. This year he made vast improvements. Playing on a losing team full of "stars" he has blossomed. He has upped his per carry average to 4.8 yards while developing into a break away threat. Although the Vikings are not utilizing his skills near the goal line, they are making more than one mistake this season. They can do nothing but improve next season; Bennett will play a major role in their success. Remember, Robert Smith took some time to come into his own. He accomplished this, then retired leaving the team with nowhere to go except the rookie back. Michael has weathered the losses, the uncertainty and inexperience; he will be a terrific back next season.

Kevan Barlow and Marcel Shipp have accomplished a lot while they share time with Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones respectively. Barlow has put in the time during the off-season to make himself a physically intimidating specimen; by next year he will be the undisputed starter in San Francisco. His speed, slashing style and strength make him a back to take before next season. The opposition will not enjoy a match-up against him. Shipp has out performed Thomas Jones when given the chance. This off season the Cardinals are going to have to make an easy decision, put Thomas out on the market and give the second year back the opportunity to be one of the most productive backs in the history of the franchise. It would be best to hold him before he "Breaks Out."

Although hurt after the third game of the season with a hamstring, one of the strongest receivers in this class is Donte Stallworth, a rookie out of Tennessee. Donte approached a hundred yards in each of his first games and caught a touch down in each. He added to this total over the weekend. His speed, hands and a young Aaron Brooks assures him he will share the spotlight with Joe Horn for a while. Perhaps not next year, but soon, he will be one of the dominant receivers in the NFL. The thing I like most is I don't see the attitude some "special" receivers have had at a young age. This guy is there to work insuring he will not be the disappointment other young receivers have become.

The young quarterback you will wish had acquired is mired on a losing team, yet Joey Harrington is one of the most exciting rookies to come into the league for some time. Getting his start early in the season, he has made mistakes, but shown the spark of leadership making him the best prospect since Brett Favre. His six touch downs to nine interceptions may scare some owners, but his 50.2 completion percentage, along with 1,312 yards passing should indicate his potential. He has some young wide receivers around him in the likes of Schroeder and Hakim Provide him with some protection, a solid running back, then watch him go. This guy could be your main starter for the next ten years or more.

"I'm So Tempted"
These are guys who have shown flashes of brilliance, but not had the chance to really show their wares. For some reason, most of them are receivers led by Chris Chambers of the Dolphins. I could easily place Chambers in a higher bracket, but he is struggling in his sophomore year due to injuries to Fiedler and himself. Things will improve making him a player not to over look for next season. Along with Chambers is Andre Davis of the Cleveland Browns. This rookie out of Virginia Tech has averaged 12.1 yards a catch scoring almost a touch down per game. He is a great compliment to Kevin Johnson, as is Dennis Northcutt. Next year the Browns should have one of the strongest receiver corps in the NFL. If they can ever develop a running game they could be a legitimate force.

Four tight ends are included in the category of temptations. None have really torn up the league, but who has after Tony Gonzalez? Each one of these guys could develop into something special or, at the very least, something very solid. Heading the list is rookie Jeremy Shockey out of Miami, now with the Giants. He seems to have a bit of an attitude and is busy fighting through injury. If he can keep from alienating his team he will be a solid receiver for some years to come. Also heading the rookie class is Randy McMichael out of Georgia, now with the Dolphins. Like Chambers, he has been hurt with the drop in production at quarterback, but he is a winner. He already has four TD's for the season making him a prime consideration for next season.

The other two tight ends are in their second year. Todd Heap has developed nicely with the Ravens despite the changes in quarterback and conservative style of offense. He has more than doubled his number of receptions from last season and scored four times. He is to be considered one of the best in the league with a lot of room to grow. Alge Crumpler, from Atlanta, received some notice last year as a rookie. Though his production is down this year, the relationship with the offense (Michael Vick) has grown stronger. As the running game improves, so will the performance of Alge. Look for his numbers to rise next year as Atlanta looks to get back to the big game.

Drew Brees may not be the strongest quarterback in the league, but I see a lot of Troy Aikman in his personality. The guy does not get rattled, does not make mistakes and does not make excuses…he just plays the game to win. After sitting for a year behind Doug Flutie he has developed into a steady, if not spectacular, quarterback who is looking at a long career in the league. Already in double digits in touch down completions, he has more up side than many league veterans.

Coming out of Fresno State with all of the hoopla of being number one in the 2002 draft, David Carr has taken his lumps, yet comes up looking like a winner. He has altered his throwing style improving his velocity while maintaining his accuracy. His spirit and leadership qualities will endear him to teammates in the years to come. With a full year under center, an unselfish attitude and a competitive spirit second to none, David Carr will develop into one of the premier gunslingers in the league. His success will be contagious. Look out for the Texans in a couple of years.

In any analysis there are players left off of the list. This is a bye-product of both time and available space. What remains to be seen is how many of this first and second year crew will fulfill their enormous potential. The word "potential" itself implies room for improvement. Improvement is sometimes more elusive than Walter Payton at full sprint. Face it; there are over a hundred NCAA Division I schools full of players who will never realize their full potential.

These young players have a chance at achieving as they arrive in the league during a time of transition. Many of the "class" veteran players are near retirement, yet they still have enough time left in the league to instill a solid work ethic and values on this generation. With masters like Smith, Favre and Rice still hanging around, there is hope for this next generation of young player. The best thing for Keeper Owners is the youth will be around for a while. With this amount of raw talent out there, they had better shop early while the bargains are still available. Time is limited. Even K-Mart shoppers can no longer take advantage of the "Blue Light Specials."