At my first fantasy draft I had absolutely no idea what I was doing.
I had received some expert advice, but I could not totally grasp
the concept. To assist me I picked up a, "Miller Lite Fantasy
Draft Preview." I began to study. I had decided if he were
available, I would select a rookie running back by the name of Barry
Sanders. I saw no problem with the choice. I did not realize rookies
were iffy propositions who probably should not be taken in the first
round. I cultivated this pearl of wisdom during a round of golf
with one of the other owners. Based on this, I began to question
my choice.
Draft night arrived. I was picking lower down the ladder. It gave
me time to consider my selection. I kept pondering my selection.
As my turn neared, Barry was still available. Once again I turned
to the Miller Lite guide. I noticed all of the other top selections
in the book were taken. There was only one player left. I contemplated
my move. My original choice or the best choice left in the guide?
My time came. My head buzzed with confusion. I felt squeamish, indecisive,
excited. My first selection in the draft would be a true measure
of my football knowledge, something to show the rest of the owners
my savvy. I took a deep breath, then selected Nick Lowry, kicker
for the Kansas City Chiefs.
The laughter erupted then faded. "That's a new strategy. Kicker
first. Never seen it done before." Other comments followed.
Despite the razzing, I knew I had made the best choice available.
I sat stoic, not saying a word. I knew I had done the right thing.
Needless to say, Barry Sanders went on the have a terrific rookie
year. I finished the first half of the season dead last. I learned
quickly. By the end of the season I was in second place over-all
and second place for the second half of the season. I finished in
the money. In the process I became hooked on fantasy football, kickers
also haunted me every year. This season was no exception.
I have grown to loath kickers. I see them as a necessary evil in
the football world, but I did not always have this view. I used
to admire kickers. They were players who played in the game. They
came to the sidelines, put on their square-toed shoe, then booted
the ball when the team scored or the offense bogged down. They were
as dirty as the rest of the players on the field with nick names
like, "The Toe," "Slingin Sammy," or "The
Old Man." They were real players who also kicked.
Imagine having a guy like, "Slinging" Sammy Baugh on your
team. After running for 30 or 40 yards and passing for a touchdown,
the guy kicks the extra point. During the course of the game he
may "drop kick" a field goal from outside of 37 yards.
In addition to this Sammy was a defense back who was among the leaders
in interceptions and touchdowns. The possible fantasy points would
be incredible.
The same could be said for the grizzled veteran George Blanda. Blanda
rarely started a game towards the end of his career for the Raiders,
but he came in during critical situations. He would take the snap,
stagger back, then connect with Warren Wells for a long TD. In many
games he was the difference. After connecting with a wobbler to
Wells he would kick the game winning field goal. One such performance
against the Browns had Raider announcer Bill King wanting to elect
him, King of the World." Eventually, into his forties, Blanda
was forced to retire. He was the last of the player/kickers who
struck a ball head-on. Another type of kicker had arrived on the
scene…the specialist.
Specialization has been a part of civilization since the founding
of farming led to sedentary life. Specialization in the NFL began
with the platoon system. For the first time players specialized
in offense or defense. By the end of the 60's specialization had
become so myopic as to include special teams, third down and snapping
specialists. The square-toed kicker had been replaced by the, "side
winder." The first was Jan Stenirude of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The coach of the Chiefs, Hank Stram, did a lot to revolutionize
the game of football. He brought in the, "Power I" formation,
the utilization of small, yet quick running backs like Mike Garrett
and Warren McVay and the, "Choir" huddle. Yet his legacy
may be the introduction of a soccer player, Jan Stenirude, to the
game of football. Stenirude never had a dirty uniform. Never participated
in a real play from scrimmage, but he was one of the more accurate
kickers to ever play the game. By the mid-seventies the league was
full of soccer style kickers with foreign sounding names making
an excellent living in the NFL kicking field goals.
Although I still grumble about the loss of "real players"
as kickers, I have learned to accept the reality. We live in a world
of run specialists, pass specialists, goal line specialists and
dime backs. Everyone on a team has a limited, but important role
to play. The team depends on everyone doing their job with a certain
amount of perfection to win. The same is true in fantasy football.
The reality has been a bitter pill to swallow. I figure I lost at
least five match-ups this season because of poor performance by
kickers. Unfortunately, this was not the first season I was thwarted
by kickers. To improve my performance for next season, I resolved
to create a solid strategy for the next draft.
One of the myths I hear from owners is to make sure you select a
"Dome Kicker." After all, they kick in the hermetically
sealed confines of perfect temperature and no wind. They will be
warm when the weather outside is below zero, dry when a regular
field is a mud hole. There could be no better, or more consistent
place for a kicker to perform than a dome covering plastic turf.
The stats say no. Out of the top ten kickers in the league, only
three call their field, "Dome Sweet Dome." The best, Jay
Feely of Atlanta finished fourth over all. The worst dome kicker
was Jason Hanson. He finished number 20 in the leagues. Then again,
he played for the Lions. Enough said. Domes don't seem to be the
magic answer. Perhaps another strategy would be better to follow.
Why not select a kicker from a high-powered offense? They score
a lot and are always seeking points. A kicker in such a system should
score prolifically. Again, the stats would say this is wrong. Four
of the most high-powered offenses in the league were the Rams, Forty
Niners, Packers and the Colts. Only one of their kickers, Mike Vanderjagt,
finished in the top ten at number five. Jose Cortez finished 25th
in the league followed closely by Ryan Longwell at number 22. Jeff
Wilkins of the Rams was a perfect 58 for 58 at extra points finishing
first but in the middle of the pack for over all scoring. Selecting
a kicker from a high-powered offense seems to be more dead weight
than live foot. Apparently this too is not the answer. There must
be another solution.
I know! Select a kicker from a team sure to be a playoff contender.
They are always looking for points and some of their games could
be real tight requiring the services of a, "Big Foot"
to keep play-off hopes alive. Once again, wrong! First, there are
very few teams who are a playoff lock at the beginning of the season.
Too many things can happen from September to the end of December.
But, even if you could figure out the playoff teams back in the
drafts of August, the stats would kill you again. Out of the top
ten, only four are in the play-offs. Two of them, Matt Stover and
Kris Brown, finished second and third respectively. Olindo Mare
and Jose Cortez finished at the bottom of the league in kicker scoring.
The rest of the playoff bound kickers finished in the middle of
the pack. Being on a quality team does not seem to equate with being
a top kicker. There must be another means of selecting a sure-footed
master.
Success strategies don't appear to be the solution; perhaps team
failure could be a measure of a winning kicker. Bingo! Out of the
top ten kickers in the league, six played for losing, or at best
break even, programs. The number one kicker in the league was Jason
Elam of the 8 and 8 Broncos. Some may attribute this to the, "Mile
High" lack of air, but the same could not be said of Todd Peterson
or Brett Conway. To reinforce the, "Pick a loser" strategy,
11 of the top 25 kickers in the NFL played for losing teams including
John Kasay of the Carolina Panthers. Kicking the ball for the losingest
team in football, he finished fourteenth in the league. Though this
strategy may appear to be successful, it equates with taking your
sister to the prom or playing low-ball poker. It does not feel like
playing to win. The thought is depressing. There must be a better
answer.
What about teams who pass the ball a lot? Nope. It appears these
teams have kickers who fall somewhere in the middle of the pack
all the way down to the bottom. The same could be said for teams
with a balanced pass/run offense. The last option would be to research
teams who are offensively challenged, teams who play offense not
lose because they win with defense.
Teams who are defensive oriented, with run as their primary offensive
focus, seem to have highly rated kickers. Almost 60% of the teams
who focus on defense to win, employ a consistent kicker, or play
offense not to lose have kickers in the top 25. This figure also
holds true for the top ten. Matt Stover and Kris Brown finished
two and three respectively. Kickers on teams who met this criterion
also held the spots of seven through ten.
So what does all of this mean? To have a successful/consistent kicker
on your fantasy team for 2002 look to teams who run the risk of
finishing near the bottom of the league or are on offenses so boring
to watch the kick itself is cause for celebration? Are we to select
kickers from teams offensively inept or aerially challenged? The
answer appears to be yes, because the longest play of the day will
be the 46-yard field goal to beat the opposition 9 to 7. Could there
be anything in life more boring? Is this what NFL specialization
has brought to us? It is a sorry state for owners who love fast
action and play making. Having the excitement of the game be a ground
drive to field goal range, then watch a clean uniformed "non-player"
trot on the field, pick his spot, pace his steps, then swing his
foot into the ball is about as exciting as watching paint dry.
Face it. The biggest kicking news stories of the year were Bill
Gramatica injuring his knee celebrating a field goal and Sebastian
Janikowsi's bout with cellulitis in his kicking foot. (After last
year he decided to tone down his off field antics.) Is there any
wonder I dread selecting these football specialists? (I refuse to
call them players.) The most entertainment a kicker brings to the
game is when they make some sorry attempt to tackle a player. It
is hardly compelling action.
Kickers may not win you any match ups during the season, but they
can sure lose them. If fantasy football is supposed to simulate
the real thing, and it does, then kickers are an important part
of the game. Coaches pull out there hair over, "wide right."
Some times they even lose their jobs. Gamblers win or lose on the
half point. Kickers are the guys out there with three seconds left
in a two- point game and all of the pressure is on them. It would
be nice to find another solution, but they are the best percentage
answers. I doubt even Marshall Faulk could run for a 50 yard score
more consistently than a kicker can convert from the distance. The
thing is, I doubt Marshall would ever want to be a kicking specialist.
Kickers are a strange breed, unfortunately I enjoy watching a thoroughbred.
Next season I plan on taking one kicker from a team with a boring
as heck offense and not watch a single game. There is a place for
kickers in the NFL, most of the time it is on the bench.
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