It is strange how things go in life. The experts agree it is going
to be a hard winter, but the snow barely falls and the temperature
never dips below 20 degrees. The NFL pundits have the Rams in the
Super Bowl half way through the season, and they make the playoffs
by the skin of their teeth only to lose in the first round to the
Saints. The Saints lose Blake and Williams and people have them
in the grave, but they rose during the season like the Phoenix.
At the beginning of the 2000 NFL season all of the fantasy players
I know stressed about the lack of running backs in the league, but
they have blossomed.
The question is, who will be the first to be wrong about next year's
trends and when will they emerge? I would like to be among the first
to place my head on the chopping block.
At the beginning of the season there were Faulk, James and everyone
else at running back. I did not know anyone who, with confidence,
could select five consistent backs. I selected number six in one
draft and I was the first to select a wide out. During the previous
selection were four running backs and Kurt Warner. In the first
round a total of seven picks were running backs, aside from Marvin
Harrison and Warner, Peyton Manning was the only other non- rusher
taken. All seven of the running backs were standards; James, Faulk,
Stephen Davis, Eddie George, T. Davis, E. Smith, Martin, but two
out of the six seemed almost to be desperation picks due to the
perceived shortage. Terrell Davis was coming off of serious injury
and had a terrible season, while Emmitt is a sure third or fourth
round pick, but not a first rounder any more. It was obvious there
was an air of panic to get the best running backs before they were
all gone.
Through the next few rounds the positions selections began to disperse
as owners sought to fill out a starting line up and quality back
ups. It was not until the final four rounds the panic again set
in as people scrambled to snatch up the remaining talent at the
running back position. One should take some chances during these
rounds, but the choices of Mike Cloud, Napoleon Kaufman, Kimble
Anders, Natrone Means and Donnell Bennett are really stretching
the envelope. With apologies to the Kansas City Chiefs, none of
their running backs are worth a pick because of the team philosophy
and almost all of them were taken. Natrone Means has not been a
blip on the radar for two years and Napoleon Kaufman has never produced
beyond the level of being a free agent selection. During 160 selections
of that draft few players dared to take the likes of a Jamal Lewis
or Lamar Smith and I doubt the trend was much different across the
country.
The likes of James Allen, Ahman Green, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson
were players, picked up in free agency, but they, with the exception
of Gary, were not the only backs to emerge in the season 2000. James
Stewart had a steady season for Detroit and Mr. Inconsistent, Corey
Dillon, had almost equal peaks and valleys. There were a couple
of thunder and lightening combinations in the form of Tiki Barber/Ron
Dayne and Jamal Lewis/Priest Holmes who were fun to watch. Jerome
Bettis once again became, "The Bus" and Lamar Smith, hidden
as a Saint, finally brought the Dolphins a running game. It seems
the running back position will be a rich vein to mine in the 2001
season as Duce Staley will return, Ricky Williams appears to be
coming into his own and everyone should have the problems of the
Broncos with Davis, Gary and Anderson. Some teams like the Ravens,
Seahawks and 49ers could come close. Perhaps the strength at running
back in the NFL has come at the expense of the tight end. There
appear to be running backs aplenty, but actual receiving tight ends
are a real premium.
Gone are the days of Casper, Winslow, Chester and Jackson. The tight
end has evolved into the H-Back or extra blocker to spring the running
back or protect the quarterback. With the exception of Tony Gonzalez
and Wesley Walls, who made a quick exit to the season, fantasy owners
were praying for a tight end who will score a consistent five or
six points per week. The last week of the season had four different
tight ends scoring, but this was a mirage. When the likes of Freddy
Jones, Kyle Brady and Kent Dilger are considered to be prime pick-ups,
it may be time for a change in the league format. To this end leagues
are considering adopting rules to allow three wide outs in a line
up and no tight end. If the NFL can change the rules of defense
to promote more offense, why not a fantasy league? An owner could
still use a tight at a higher weighting, but the position would
be optional in the line up. The demise of the tight end has not
been the only change in the NFL, finding a consistent wideout has
become the search for the Holy Grail.
Thinking back on the season, I cannot come up with one week in,
week out, consistent wide out. There were some outstanding performances,
record setting games, but many receivers were limited to a touchdown
and minimal yardage, or even worse. Jimmy Smith shined, at times,
but suffered through an inconsistent season along with the likes
of Issac Bruce, Terrell Owens, Tim Brown and Randy Moss. Even Chris
Carter struggled at the beginning of the season and did not really
emerge as "The Man" for any league owners receiving corp.
Owners next year may be looking to draft wide outs en masse on the
bases of match up potential and not the ability to score against
"any team." The shift of many teams to the philosophy
of defense wins championships, it may take four or more wide outs
to have consistent points from the position in 2001. Of course,
the effectiveness of any receiver is dependent upon the philosophy
of the organization and the ability of the quarterback. This position
too has suffered in the aspect of consistency.
The owner who drafted Kurt Warner at the beginning of the season
was the only owner to see consistent superior performances, but
they only lasted until his injury. The post injury Warner began
weak and was only been mortal in finishing the season. There are
a lot of solid veterans in the league, but even Brett Favre hardly
lit things up and Steve McNair is limited by the system of the organization.
There appear to be a lot of teams saying, "Don't make mistakes,"
as opposed to, "Make it happen." Fiedler in Miami, Collins
in New York and, to an extent, Drew Bledsoe in New England have
all fallen victim to, "Don't lose it for us, but win the game."
Of course there are seven quarterbacks entering into their third
seasons, but Akili Smith and Cade McNown have failed to show any
true brilliance and neither one finished out the season as the starter.
Daunte Culpepper may be the most productive of the bunch and he
plays in a system where three starting quarterbacks have had success
in the last three years. Although Aaron Brooks appears to be the
real deal, he has not been tested throughout a full season. Steve
McNair has led his team during the season, but his numbers have
been less than spectacular. He wins any way he can and that means
scrambling effectively for first downs. It seems the philosophy
of "win ugly" has taken over in many organizations and
fantasy owners are going to be hard pressed to find a consistently
superior player at quarterback, but there are a lot of ho-hum players
in the league. The draft of 2001 would seem vanilla at this position
and it may be a place where a savvy owner can sluff and fill in
the cracks in the rest of the offense.
In the fantasy draft for the year 2001 consistency will be the thing
lacking from almost every team owner. To be effective, owners are
really going to have to do their homework and draft according to
schedules and divisions. Off-season trades and acquisitions are
going to have to be monitored closely as teams attempt to build
an offensive line to produce winners. NFL teams may even take the
direction of the Ravens and Tampa Bay and under rate their offenses
to build defenses that can thwart the lagging offenses now existing
in the league. Balance is going to be the key for any success next
year as the superstar player takes a back seat to the considerations
of the salary cap and free agency.
There is a huge side of me that hopes I am wrong. I love having
a player who will consistently have twenty or more points a week,
but I have lowered my expectations and hope for any group I have
playing during a week to each score ten points. Consistency is what
will determine next year's fantasy champions, as parody in fantasy
football will parallel the NFL. I just see it as a tough goal to
achieve. Of course I could be wrong, but I am not going to lose
my head over the whole deal.
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