Within the microcosm of fantasy football there is a swirl
of myth, legend and conjecture. Participants argue about draft strategies
and choices. They believe in miracle years and dynamic trends, which
appear to take shape over the course of a season. They also think
the numbers of years a player has in the league has something to
do with their performance in any given season. It is this last belief
that some of the people in my league swear by and the most prevalent
fallacy is that of the, "Three Year Break Out Receiver."
To investigate, research and prove, or disprove, this myth empirically
was going to require a great deal of statistical information. Patience,
to grind the raw data to some useable form and an unbiased examination
of the facts to be fair in the analysis of the information. Though
the emphasis of this research is on fact, it may be good to look
at the fantasy of Hollywood to gain some perspective.
In the 1947 movie, "Magic Town", Jimmy Stewart is in search of the
perfect small community in America. His search for this town begins
because he is an ace independent pollster without the resources
to compete with the giant Gallup Poll Company. After digging through
national demographics like a mole he discovers the town of Grandview.
Grandview is located in Middle America USA and he moves there to
seek fame and fortune. The catch is that he must keep his mission
and identity secret to insure accurate results. A short time after
his arrival he finds success and sees a future with endless potential.
More of this story later, but the source of the resource pool is
always a question when trying to understand even elementary statistics.
There must be some form of randomness. It must be large enough to
insure accurate results and it must be pure enough to dilute any
pollution in the source pool. In short, the data must be gathered
fairly and without prejudice.
To meet all of the requirements of a computer generated version
of "Grandview" a pool of 109 quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight
ends were garnered from the files of the NFL. The pool was separated
into smaller ponds labeled, "Elite" and, "Random." The elite players
were selected from the list of top ten receivers and quarterbacks
drafted from two performance based leagues over the last five years,
while the random group was selected from a list of all active players
in the NFL. The elite lists of QB's and wide outs were 12 and 21
respectively the random groups had 51 receivers and 25 gunslingers.
The names of the elite included Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Steve
Young, Brett Favre and Herman Moore. The names of the random selections
included some big names like Randy Moss and Jeff George, but most
of the players had names like Billy Joe Holbert, Mat Reem, and Pete
Gonzalez. Most of the random selects had NFL experience, but were
hardly players that end up on any reasonable draft list. Still,
all of the ponds were large enough to assure fairly accurate results
and diversity in attaining the results. The first group to be examined
was the plethora of receivers in the NFL.
There appeared to be a fairly wide gap between the performance of
the elite crew and their counter parts during the early years of
their development. During their first year in the league the elite
group had a respectable 562 yards while the other guys had only
155. Even if the bench sitters were removed from the sample, the
elite crew was still out gaining the others by more then 160 yards.
The gap stayed about the same in total yards during the second year
as both groups increased in the low 20th percentile. The critical
third year appeared to be the great earthquake to widen the spread
between the two groups. During their third year the elite group
gained a total of 893 yards receiving while the random group only
had 448 yards. On the surface it would appear the three-year theory
is not myth, but fact. Only by looking deeper can this be confirmed
or denied.
Take into account that few of these receivers had a 1,000-yard season
during their first three years. If this variable is considered,
the number of years it takes for one of the elite receivers to have
a true break out year is 4.066 while the average wide out in
the NFL breaks out in 3.923 years. Although three years appears
to be an indicator for great expectations, four years is when a
receiver goes from potentially good to consistently great during
the peak of their career. This conclusion seems to become more concrete
when the total TD's per season of each of the groups is added to
the mix. In their third year of action the elite group had a very
respectable 9 TD's while the random pool had only 3 TD's for an
entire season. Receivers seem to get better with age, but is this
because of their growing individual talent, or is it the combination
of the receiver and the quarterback?
This became a nagging question and had top be explored. Using the
same categories as the receivers QB stats for the first season appeared
to be very close. The anointed ones had 806 yards, 7 TD's to 791
yards and 5 TD's for the random sample. It was in their second year
that the distance between the two groups grew significantly as the
elite signal callers threw for twice the yardage at 2,323 yards
and almost twice the number of TD's. What was interesting was that
during their third year the gap, once again, shrank. The separation
in yards computed out to 2,490 for the elite group and 2,355 for
the random bunch of slingers. The separation in TD's still favored
the elite as they threw for more then a third more TD's at 15 total
for the season. This merging of the figures may be due to the shrinking
pool of random quarterbacks, as the group shrank by almost half
over a three year period, but the years it takes for a top rookie
QB to emerge would indicate that this three year development for
any quarterback is normal. The break out year for the best in the
NFL is 3.5, while their colleges develop in 3.1 years. It seems
that either a top quarterback will begin starting by their third
year, or they may never break out. (Ten of the players in the random
pool will probably never have a break out year.) Still, these are
numbers being used to describe the success, or failure, of a human
being and they fail to ignore variables, existing in the real world.
In the world of, "Magic Town", the perfect town develops into a
not so perfect town. Stewart's character forgets to include the
variables of falling in love, having people discover his true purpose
and identity and the reactions of his test subjects in the real
world. All of these factors began to skew his results and ruin his
neat statistical pictures. Such is the world of the National Football
League.
Four months of physical abuse, constant pressure and mental adjustments
during every year takes its toll on both the mind and body and none
of it is predictable. The number of questions to be answered is
endless. Is there truly a quantifiable "special" relationship between
some receivers and quarterbacks? If there is, how come some of these
relationships of productivity ebb while some individuals grow regardless
of the person tossing or catching? Could Jerry Rice have reached
the pinnacles of success if he had had Billy Joe Toliver as his
main howitzer, or could the presence of Rice made Billy Joe something
beyond the below average signal caller he is today? Is it a lock
that Kevin Johnson and Tim Couch will grow at a rate similar to
that of Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison? Of course not! There
is no such thing as "guaranteed" in the world of football and statistics.
Jimmy Stewart discovered this fact and it was not until he accepted
life exactly as it was offered that he began to truly find success
and the girl of his dreams.
In the real world of fantasy football there is no Magic Town as
the town is always under construction, modification and the forces
of nature. An old college friend used to tell me, when observing
my struggles with statistics class... "There is no such thing as
probability. The world is a 50/50 proposition. Either an event is
going to happen, or it is not going to happen." As angry as I used
to get trying to explain the concept of reliability intervals, I
always saw the truth in his logic. No matter how good a player has
been they are one tackle, one drink, one drive, one heart beat away
from losing their careers and creating a vast hole in any fantasy
team. Though Grandview USA may not exist, it can always be attempted
in the world of the fantasy league. After all, either Randy Moss
will have a great year, or he won't. In life, like statistics, reality
can be stranger then the truth.
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