To be honest, I have never thought much of "Keeper Leagues."
Having to keep players into the next season held little appeal.
Between players, owners and the NFL behavior police there are too
many variables to make keeping players an attractive proposition.
Still, for the last weeks, in response to an email, I have been
trying to live the life of a "Keeper League" player. As
a result, the thought of participating in a keeper league has become
more palatable.
For the uninitiated, a keeper league is just what it says. A league
is set. Owners draft players, then for the life of the league, owners
are allowed to keep three to seven position players for the next
season. If, during the life of the league, an owner drops out their
players are relegated to the draft pool for next season or their
"keepers" are bought by a new owner.
Success in a keeper league hinges on being able to predict the future
in the guise of emerging young talent. The dynamics of the league
dictate you know when to cut an aging star, when to retain the services
of young established talent and when to wait until the draft to
fill a gap. This time of the fantasy season is especially critical
to keeper league players. As us "normal" fantasy players
are heading towards the crucial weeks of the play-offs, they are
too. In addition to this decisive time, they are planning what players
to keep for next season as trade deadlines loom. This creates a
super vortex of stress regular fantasy owners cannot comprehend
making participation in a keeper league attractive to any tension
junkie.
I believe in the "KISS" principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid)
In observing life, it seems all things happen in threes, including
deaths. Life balances on a triangle. To this end I have developed
a keeper strategy based upon this simplest, yet strongest geometric
shape in the world. Not only is it used for strength in the design
of buildings, automobiles and bridges. It is also the basic shape
of any balanced offense in the NFL.
The triangle of quarterback, running back and wide receiver is the
foundation of any successful offense. The run sets up the pass,
the pass sets up the run. They work together to keep a defense off
balance creating scoring opportunities. Any team with the constant
threat of attacking with either tool is a nightmare for any defensive
coordinator. Take away any leg of the triangle, the job of stopping
the offense becomes much easier. Being able to assess the potential
of any team's offensive triangle is not only a tool for draft preparation,
it can also help determine what players to keep. To this end I have
identified five triangles I see existing in the NFL. They are the
Bermuda, Right, Obtuse, Isosceles and Dinner Triangle.
The Bermuda Triangle
The Bermuda Triangle has supposedly been the excuse for the disappearance
of ships, planes and peoples. These teams disappeared leaving little
of their preseason dreams. Without major damage control, these teams
will disappear completely from radar for next season. In the NFL
these teams who are like the Flying Dutchman, a ghost ship. They
have a ghost of a chance for developing anything tangible for the
2002 campaign.
- Cincinnati Bengals: This team
has to be a constant frustration to their fans. They have one
of the best running backs in the league, yet nothing at quarterback
to make the system work. Is Kitna the answer? Probably not.
They have makings of a pass offense to help Dillon out, but
no one to pull the trigger. Warrick and Scott can fly, but they
have failed to soar. It is tough to get off the ground when
the quarterback spends all of their time running on or eating
turf. They have not had a passing game since Blake to Pickins,
they will not have one unless one of their passers decides to
fill the leadership role. Kitna or Smith will have to step up.
With no solid quarterback, this team will remain adrift.
- Carolina Panthers: This
team is floundering. Huntley may finally be a starter after
four years in the league, but he may be only an answer for a
trivia question ten years down the road. Weinke is developing,
but it may not happen next year. Wesley Walls is nearer to the
end of his career than the beginning. Muhsin Muhammad has not
had a stellar year. The team is in an offensive fog with no
clear course. Eventually Weinke may be the QB for a short future,
he needs to be surrounded with more talent than he has at the
moment. In the meantime, this is a rudderless ship. This offense
is a question desperately seeking an answer. It will come in
a season or two, not next year.
The Isosceles Triangle
An isosceles
triangle has two equal sides, with one side out of whack. There
are potential keepers here, despite little balance. Teams who are
"short sided" bear watching during the off season to see
if they will shore up their weak spots.
- Arizona Cardinals: This
is a team with a scrambling dynamic quarterback in Jake Plummer.
The problem is the Plummer has a leak at running back. It may
be the line, it may be him, but Michael Pittman has not developed
into the back for the Cards. David Boston has really come around
this season. The chemistry between him and the "Snake"
seems genuine. The rest of the receivers are aging gracefully,
but their careers are drawing to an end. It will be interesting
to see what the Cards do in the off-season to address their
problems in the backfield. They should end up with a high draft
pick, or they could look to the free agent market. They need
to compliment the two strong sides of their unit to be a strong
unit for next season. Without a runner, Boston is the only thing
worth keeping here. Plummer will be available in the draft.
- Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings
have felt the absence of Robert Smith for the entire season.
Right now they fall into this category as a result of the performance
of the line and Michael Bennett. Although both will improve,
the receiving tandem of Carter and Moss may not be with the
team next season. There has been talk of an outright release
for Moss and Carter may not have the heart for another rebuilding
season. Currently there is not a lot backing up either one of
these guys. Lets hope they don't get too desperate and begin
to think along the lines of Terry Glenn. After a classless entry
into the league, Glenn is making a classless exit from the Patriots.
The thought of Moss and Glenn as a wide out tandem is enough
to make any fantasy owner queasy. Between the two, how would
they decide who plays?
The Obtuse Triangle
The obtuse triangle is a three-sided form with one angle being greater
than 90 degrees. Believe it or not, there are teams in the NFL with
too many options in their offense. It is a problem many NFL teams
would like to have, but it presents a problem for fantasy owners
as the team will go with whatever the defense gives them. They exploit
rather than dictate. They will use whatever offensive tool they
have to widen a crack in the defense. The problem is trying to guess
which tool they are going to use in any given week. Variety may
be the spice of life, but it is a nightmare for fantasy owners.
Don't look to the sides of this shape for consistency, look to the
base. Try to avoid the sides. They may look attractive, but they
have a slippery slope.
- Oakland Raiders: Rich Gannon
may be the base of this team, still the number of weapons he
is surrounded by make selecting fantasy players nearly impossible.
Will it be Rice or Brown who catch all of the passes this week
in the end zone? Depending on down and distance which of the
five employed backs will carry the rock into the end zone or
rush for 100 yards? Too many questions and not enough solid
answers. Besides, many of these players are playing at the end
of their careers. Combined, Rice, Brown and Gannon have 33 years
in the NFL. I like Terry Porter as a developing wide out. Depending
on what happens in the off-season he could be a sleeper. With
two future Hall of Famers who have work ethics filed under,
"NO QUIT", Porter could not have better teachers/role
models.
- St. Louis Rams: What a foundation
in Warner and Faulk? It can't get any stouter. Even Faulk's
back up, Trung Canidate, looks exceptional, the problem is at
wide receiver. Any of these burners could start anywhere in
the NFL. The problem is, they are all on one team. They have
all had their moment in the spotlight this season, predicting
who will shine on any given Sunday is like the playing the lotto.
You may win big, but chances are you will lose. Any offensive
coordinator would be in heaven with the combination of talent
they have, the question is who to keep in a fantasy league?
The answer is, none. Place them all on waivers at the end of
the season. The draft will hold several consistent players.
Let some other owner have the headache and heartache of deciding
who to start.
The Dinner Triangle
For anyone old enough to have seen, The Real
McCoys" you know exactly what a dinner triangle is. In "the
day" it is what farm wives used to use to call the family
and the hands in from the fields for supper. As sad as it is,
players get old. When they do they head out to greener pastures
where they can no longer answer the bell to feast on prime defenses.
In the meantime they are living on guile and guts. It is not a
diet one can survive on for long.
- Vinny Testaverde: Vinny is
pushing 39 years of age. He has had a long productive career.
He has survived ridicule, fame, a nomadic life style and a variety
of offenses. He even made the adjustment to playing the west
coast system. On the other hand, Vinny has not been the most
mobile of quarterbacks the last few seasons due to age and his
achilles heel. Waiting in the wings is Chad Pennington. Next
year will mark his third in the league. He has the size as well
as the athletic ability to fit in with the Coles, Moss tandem
at wide out. Santana would not be the first "Moss"
Pennington has had success with.
- Emmitt Smith: Emmit has
been one of the classiest players NFL fans have ever had the
pleasure to watch. His persistence, work ethic and loyalty has
been a model to any player in the league. You may have hated
the rest of the Cowboys, but you had to appreciate the work
of #22. If Emmitt returns next season he will only be a shell
of what he was. Backing him up is a runner with the size and
maybe the heart of the man he will replace, Troy Hambrick. Despite
this, the Cowboys have problems. They are so desperate they
are looking at Ryan Leaf at quarterback. The "Rocket"
is barely even a jet while Galloway has never been what he was
when he was Seahawk. Given everything, the Cowboys may be a
good home for Drew Bledsoe as his tenure in New England appears
to be at an end.
- Doug Flutie: At 39 no one
would expect this quarterback to stay in the way of a developing
talent like Drew Brees. He won't. The Chargers brought in Flutie
because he has almost all of the same physical liabilities of
Brees. They were hoping to provide a role model and a heart
transplant for a sick offense. The organization could not have
done better. Doug may still be around next season, but he will
be a backup to a second year player with just as much heart,
yet more talent. This Brees may allow the Chargers to blow through
defenses next season. The team warrants more than a passing
interest.
- Chris Chandler: Chandler
has been one of the most valiant quarterbacks in the league.
He has survived being replaced by Steve McNair. He has had so
many concussions, he should have a degree in anesthesiology.
He has spent most of his playing career on artificial turf,
yet has survived. He is an ultimate team player, which is why
he will once again step aside. This time for Michael Vick. The
move made by the Falcons was more honest that the one tried
by the Oilers. Chandler's support could make Vick one of the
most explosive weapons in the NFL.
The "Right" Triangle: (aka "The
Love Triangle" As Owners Just Love It)
All right triangles have a perfect 90-degree
angle. Given any two sides of the triangle, you can figure the length
of the third side. These are the teams with predictable fantasy
numbers. Their consistency makes them attractive. Their blend of
youth and experience makes them a force to be reckoned with. Barring
stupidity, or worse during the off-season, these teams could be
even better next season. What makes these teams even more desirable
is their ability to reload at almost any position with no depreciable
drop in performance.
- Indianapolis Colts: I know
Mora is busy developing the attitude he had when he left New
Orleans. I understand Peyton has struggled this season. The
causes for this go deeper than a coach/quarterback relationship.
The Colts have not had a defense since Mike Curtis played the
game. They have always been in search of an offense hence the
acquisitions of Jeff George and Eric Dickerson years ago. Between
injuries at the wide out, the loss of Edgerrin James the entire
offense has been hurting. The good thing is the triangle of
Manning, Harrison and James should be back intact next season.
Given all of this, the question is, why have the Colts not spent
the time on defense? If they can take the constant pressure
to score off of Manning, the interceptions will decrease. James
will get more carries. They can become exploiters not desperadoes.
The best thing is, the triangle is young. They have room for
development.
- New Orleans Saints: Though
they have not had big numbers in the win column this season,
the saints are beginning to develop an offensive to be admired.
Brooks has made mistakes in his first full season as a starter,
so did Brett Favre. So did almost any other great quarterback
you can think of. The connection to Joe Horn is strong. Ricky
Williams looks to be a back trying to fulfill the promise of
three years ago. This team has tremendous up side. Anyone of
the players in this triad are worth keeping for next season.
Their back-ups may be worth taking in the draft. The results
could be heavenly.
- Philadelphia Eagles: This
team has had some hard times as of late, but they are amongst
the strongest in the league. Unlike last season, Donovan McNabb
has finally found receivers he likes to throw to in Thrash and
Pinkston. Freddie Mitchell is developing along with them. After
coming off his injury, Duce Staley has been amongst the elite
running backs in the league. He is young. His back-up Correll
Buckhalter is even younger. Given a staunch defense, the Eagles
will soar next season as the offense comes of age.
I have to admit, after spending two weeks in the role of a "keeper"
owner the concept now intrigues me. I have gained a healthy respect
for those who swear by, and at, this form of fantasy play. They
are the true seekers of talent who either develop a keen eye for
talent, or perish from the play-offs before the season even starts.
The entire dynamics of the draft takes on new meaning as they
try to fill in the holes they have intentionally left at the end
of last season. Even the NFL draft takes on new meaning as owners
search the talent pool. In a way these may be the truest form
of fantasy player, as they don't have to purchase a fantasy magazine
at the beginning of each season, they constantly have to stay
on top of the information to have any success. My hat is off to
some of the craziest fantasy players out there. They not only
have to determine talent, the have to assess character. Characters
abound in the NFL, true character is a rare commodity. These are
players with a triangle of heart, soul and commitment. They are
the real keepers as they are the Never Fail Leaders of the National
Football League. In this league three is not a crowd, it is a
necessity.
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