Change, the only true constant in life, is what every fantasy owners
is trying to be in tune with regarding the NFL. Many of the changes
in the world of professional football are predictable, injury, free
agency, salary cap reductions, trades, retirement and the ever-emerging
rookies and players stepping up. Most of these changes provide a
ripple effect upon the league and the organization. At best they
may be a wave worthy of ten seconds of surf time. They are nothing
compared to the tsunami of an ownership change. Outside of changing
owners, the biggest waves created in the NFL are those made by coaching
changes. These are waves big enough to challenge the best fantasy
surfer with their impacts possibly being long lasting. This season
there have been six coaching changes in the league. Three of them
are retread coaches getting another chance at the helm, while the
other three represent either fresh blood to the league or their
first chance at being in charge of a professional team.
Outside of the owner, no single person stamps their personal philosophy
on a team like the head coach. It eclipses concerns over who can
recover from last year's knee injury or who is due for a break out
year. A coach can determine who will be having the chance to recover
or breakout. The coach is the man who sets the tone for a team on
both the practice and playing field like no owner or player can.
It is their system, their assistants, their coordinators and their
philosophy on the line every day. The coach of any team is the direct
instrument of change. (Unless you work for Al Davis, more later.)
This year of coaching changes has been the most controversial and
high profile. The waves emitted by these changes will affect the
league for years.
For the third time in three years, the Washington Redskins have
a new head coach. Daniel Snyder maintained his good record of changing
coaches like underwear when he rid himself of Marty Schottenheimer
hiring instead, Steve Spurrier. Although Marty may have had his
entire family on the payroll along with many of his friends, he
did have a respectable 8 and 8 record with the Redskins. Even more
respectable when one considers the Redskins started the regular
season at 0 and five.
During training camp veterans were complaining the drills were too
tough, the coach did not care, and they were on the verge of mutiny.
To his credit, Marty turned the team around. They team began to
win. They finished the season hungry, looking like a real NFL team
having the potential to make the 2002 play-offs. Not satisfied,
Daniel Snyder let him go. Still seen as a viable commodity by Alex
Spanos, he was hired by the San Diego Chargers.
Marty is charged with turning around a team with a single digit
winning record over the last two years. The man who loved running
back by committee in Kansas City, barely has a back up to LaDainian
Tomlinson. Seeming to always love a quarterback who does not make
mistakes, he is saddled with second year quarterback Drew Breeze
who will be a first year starter. At least he has one aspect of
the team to make him feel comfortable, an aging yet competent
defense led by one of the best line backers of all time. The Chargers
will be better this year with Marty in charge, but they will fall
short of the play-offs. Outside of Tomlinson, there is really
nothing to claim as a fantasy owner this year. The future could
be brighter.
Steve Spurrier has an NCAA pedigree the envy of many. As a Heisman
Trophy winner at quarterback in 1966, he was drafted number one
by the San Francisco 49ers. He spent 10 years in the pros, but
never rose to the level of the hype preceding him. He ended his
career with the hapless Buccaneers in 1976 to begin coaching at
the college ranks. He spent a brief stint with the defunct Tampa
Bay Bandits in the USFL, before taking a downtrodden Duke team
to the level of respectability, before taking over the University
of Florida program. He stayed with the university for 12 seasons
earning one NCAA title in 1996. Despite a record of 127-27-1,
the best of any twelve-year coach, his team spent much of their
time in the shadows as the third best college team in Florida.
With the departure of Shottenheimer at Washington, Spurrier became
a Redskin.
Spurrier brings with him the reputation of having an aerial attack
second to few. He inherits a team with a strong defense only made
stronger with the addition of Marvin Lewis from Baltimore. During
the preseason the Redskins set a new record for points scored,
averaging thirty per game. He has incurred the wrath of opposing
coaches for running up the score. Although he has no real star
at the quarterback position, the team has shown passing to be
their strength. It will only be complimented with the running
of Stephen Davis who saw few touches during the preseason onslaught.
Receiver Rod Gardner has made the sleeper list of virtually every
fantasy publication. The team seems poised for success in the
regular season and should improve over their 8 and 8 record from
last season. The glaring problem is at the QB position and Spurrier's
philosophy regarding it. He was never known to stick with one
player. If starter Shane Matthews falls short, he may be inclined
to revert to one of his other U of F grads. Quarterback by committee
has never truly been successful in the NFL and is a disaster for
any fantasy owner. Unlike many diverse offensive attacks, there
is no value at the quarterback position; the fantasy value lies
in the defense and skill positions. The play-offs are possible
this year, but there is only one bowl game in the NFL. This team
may come close, but it is still out of reach.
Aside from out and out changes in the organization, there are
two assistant coaches who have received their promotion to head
coach from within. For both coaches it is their first time being
in charge of a professional team. Both of them replace coaches
who had fair to great success with their teams, but were unable
to put the organization on top. One will be asked to turn his
team around after a five win season the other will be dedicated
to a "Commitment to Excellence."
Mike Tice came to the Vikings in 1992 as a tight end. He played
for two seasons at the position before moving on to the coaching
level in 94. In 1997 he was promoted to offensive line coach.
With the departure of Dennis Green at the end of the 2002 season
he became the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. He has always
been described as unspectacular if not "blue collar' in his
approach to the game.
Last year, after a disastrous summer camp, the Vikings fell apart
during the regular season. Randy Moss and Chris Carter were seen
fighting with each other as well as fellow teammates. After coming
close to the big game a couple of times, Green was seen as not
being able to discipline his team. Owner Billy Joe fired him "Red"
McCombs at the end of the season.
On the surface, the changes seem to have been for the better.
Players are reported as being happy. Randy Moss has said he wants
to be a leader on the team. Daunte Culpepper has stated Randy
will be 90% of the offense. It appears Michael Bennett has matured
as a person and a runner, while their non-existent defense has
shown some backbone. This team should have more focus than the
past, but there should be few changes on offense. Why mess with
a good thing? With a solid, if not spectacular defense, the Vikings
should be headed back to the play-offs. The addition Biekert,
a veteran from the Oakland Raiders, should assist in this process.
(Like Marcus Allen, another Davis casualty.) Their offensive triangle
of Culpepper, Moss and Bennett should be in the top five rounds
of any draft. Despite another death in the Viking family, the
team appears to have a great attitude, which should translate
well into the regular season. Given their performance last season,
and subsequent easier schedule outside of their division; the
Vikings have a shot at the play offs. The "Big Game"
looms in the future if they can adhere to the work ethic of their
head coach.
Bill Callahan takes over a Raider team aging, yet still on the
brink of making it to the Super Bowl. Callahan was the offensive
coordinator/line coach under John "Chuckie" Gruden.
He may not have called the plays last season, but he has been
a crucial part of the Oakland offensive scheme. With Gruden taking
the job at Tampa Bay, Callahan has been hailed as a player's coach
and the change has been welcome. Although the Raiders were in
double digits in their first two games in penalties, most of them
being of the way stupid variety. Against the 49ers the Raiders
looked to be more focused, against the Cardinals they looked to
be in control. Once again they will challenge for the final showdown,
once again they have few fantasy players worth taking in the top
four rounds of any draft. The problem, they have too many weapons
and their offensive success is built around role players like
Crockett, Rice and Wheatley Outside of Rich Gannon, none of the
Raider offensive players are consistently good enough to be anything
but a secondary player or substitute. (As much as I love Tim Brown,
he would not be my first choice as a wide receiver.) Part of the
Raider scheme is to spread the touches of the ball between many
players, this, unfortunately for fantasy players, will not change.
Another element unchanging in the Raider organization is the megalomaniac
personality of Al Davis. Greg Biekert is gone, I have a strong
feeling it is the reason "Chuckie" wanted out. The more
things change, the more they stay the same.
One of the most high profile coaching changes of the season
occurred between Tampa Bay and Oakland Raiders. After several
years of solid success, Tony Dungy was asked to leave the Bucs.
It seemed he could not win the big game in the playoffs and get
the team over the hump to real respectability. To replace him
the organization went after John Gruden of the Raiders. The romance
was one of the biggest soap operas of the off-season.
Gruden comes to a Tampa Bay team in search of a savior. Even the
messiah "Chuckie" may not be able to lift this team
to the very top level. Their defense has always been amongst the
league's best; their offense let them down. Brad Johnson will
be the starter. He makes few mistakes, but seems to lack the leadership
skills of John's last quarterback project in Oakland. . Although
Michael Pittman is listed as the starter at running back, Mike
Alstott will still be the goal line guy making Pittman nothing
better than a middle round fantasy draft selection. Between McCardell
and Keyshawn Johnson they will have two solid receivers sharing
the catches with neither one being a constant scoring threat.
It will be ball control offense and just don't lose as the motto.
The team may improve their record, but will fall short of Super
Bowl rings. Even with Keyshawn Johnson and more freedom, none
of their offensive fantasy players deserve anything above a fourth
round pick. This is not the case in the new home of Tony Dungy.
Last season the Colts had an offense with the ability to score
from anywhere on the field. They better had because their defense
gave up points like a broken slot machine. Last year the Colt
defense was every fantasy player's dream. Even your average guy
could have a great day against a defense who could not get out
of their own way. Tony has been hired to change it.
Controversy surrounded the dismissal of Dungy in Tampa Bay. Many
people felt he had gotten the dirty end of the stick. Tony had
brought them out of the cellar giving them, a glimpse of the light,
but he could not take them to the "Promised Land." He
has the job of changing the attitude of every fantasy owner's
whipping boy, the Colt defense. He seems to have addressed the
problem through free agency and the college draft. Look for the
Colts to be better, but not great. At least defensive stats should
not be on the bottom. It would not take much of a defense to allow
the Colt offense to turn up the heat making the other team play
catch up for a change, allowing them to make more mistakes.
He has stated he will not overhaul the offense of the team.
There is really no need. Peyton Manning may have had his worst
year for interceptions, but it is understandable. When your team
is constantly down by two or more touchdowns you have to throw
the ball more. They should not be in the position this season.
For the last four years Peyton Manning has worked with Tom Moore
Offensive Coordinator. For the last four years the Colts have
had one of the hottest offenses in team history. To his credit,
Tony Dungy has allowed Moore to stay on showing both his faith
and commitment to the offense as is. After all, if it aint broken,
why fix it?
The only broken thing on the Colts offense, outside of Manning's
nose, is their starting running back Edgerrin James. He went down
about mid-season last year with a knee injury. Pundits have cast
doubt regarding his return in full strength. They say he has not
worked out with the team during the off-season. They also say
he has seen little action during this preseason. It should be
remembered; James did not work out with the team last season either.
Up until the time of his injury it appeared he was on his way
to his third Pro Bowl. Few of the major starters play huge roles
during the preseason. It is a time to evaluate talent; James has
already passed the test. With James once again in the offense,
the Colts should have very productive fantasy players. Their defense
may not be strong enough to put them in the Super Bowl, but with
Dungy at the helm, it could come in the near future.
Of course coaching changes are not the only concerns facing
fantasy players on the eve of the first game of the season, but
these are player concerns whose impacts will be short lived in
the history of the game or organization. There are always replacements
out there. There is always going to be the rookie surprise on
a team or the veteran who finally has to hang them up. With the
exception of Washington, few teams change their coaches on a regular
basis, especially if the team has been successful under their
regime. Coaching changes are more permanent, with a larger impact
than any player could ever expect to have.
Sure Marshall Faulk has had tremendous success with the Rams.
Their system of wide-open offense, with a diverse back, lends
itself to his kind of play. Still, it was only a few years ago
fantasy owners were writing off Marshal as the latest in a long
line of busts at the position. Did Marshal get faster? Become
a better receiver? A more elusive runner? probably yes, but not
far from his pre-injury collegiate days. What happened was he
went to a system where a player of his diverse talent was not
only appreciated, it was required. The coach is the system. Follow
the system to success. Good luck to all this fantasy season.
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