On August 13th, a portion of the FFToday crew
got together for our staff league draft. This is a real league that
will be played out during the season. Team-by-team results and commentary
from each owner are below.
Scoring:
1 point for every: 10 yards rushing, receiving, 20 yards passing,
reception, sack, FUM Rec, INT Ret
2 points for every: safety, PAT rushed, PAT received, PAT thrown
3 points for every: field goal
4 points for every: touchdown thrown
6 points for every: touchdown rushed, received, fumble returned,
interception returned, kick returned
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: Let
it be known that I absolutely hate having the No.1 overall pick
for a myriad of reasons. First, there is almost no way to get full
value of the guy you select (in my case it was Todd Gurley). Generally
in PPR leagues if I have a very early pick I like to mitigate risk
and draft Antonio Brown, but the pendulum has swung wildly back
to three-down backs, so I had to go with who I feel had the fewest
question marks, and that was Gurley. I expect touchdown regression,
but I think he has room to grow in the yardage and passing game
department. For me, Bell has too many red flags and David Johnson
no longer has a brilliant offensive mind running the team, and that
made Gurley an easy pick at No.1.
Another thing I greatly dislike about the No.1 overall pick is waiting
on the turn at the end of round 2. You are generally left to the
mercy of owners ahead of you, and in a league with all fantasy pros,
there are likely to be no reaches that early. My strategy was to
try and pair Gurley with another solid back (Mixon or Devonta Freeman)
but that didn’t happen. Being at pick No.24 I also totally
missed the run on top receivers as well. I ended up going with T.Y.
Hilton at the end of the 2nd, as he has a recent history of being
a top-10 receiver with Luck at the helm, and I took a risk that
they could duplicate the magic of 2016.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
I desperately wanted to make Jarvis Landry my No.3 receiver (he’s
going to be a target hog) or have Zach Ertz as my tight end, and
I was prepared to take either with my 4th round pick. But of course
BOTH guys got snatched up just a few picks prior. I then had a
really hard time making my pick, shuffling between Derrick Henry,
Lamar Miller, or Kerryon Johnson. Miller was probably the safest,
especially in PPR, but I gambled that Henry can do enough on the
ground in what I think can be an improved offense, to flirt with
RB1 production.
Final thought: One big takeaway
from this draft was the incredible depth at the receiver position.
I guess I was a little taken aback at how quickly the top tiers
of running backs dried up. There were mere scraps left by the
5th and 6th rounds, while teams were finding quality WR3s in the
8th rounds and below (Woods, Stills, Fuller, Funchess). It’s
really important to get starters you can bank on and fill things
in from there. Receivers can be plucked out from all over the
place.
Maybe I’m gullible, but I really like the Landry pick in
the 4th round by our commish, Mike Krueger. I really think the
Cleveland passing game is going to run through him, and I like
the chemistry I’ve seen between him and Taylor so far. I
also really like the pick of Mark Ingram in the 6th round. Sure
he’s going to miss a quarter of the season, but he’s
a huge part of that offense, and should offer RB1 value the second
he steps onto the field. Awesome value in 6th.
My pick of Crowder in the 5th might look like a reach to some,
but I think there is a perfect storm brewing in Washington for
his success. He’s exactly the type of receiver Alex Smith
likes to pepper with targets, he’s fully healthy unlike
many of the pass catchers around him, and the loss of Derrius
Guice means Washington should really be forced to lean on the
short and intermediate pass game this year.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: As
has been well documented, the RB position has sprung back to life
over the past year after being declared somewhat dead for a few
years prior. The No.2 overall pick, thus, was always going to be
a RB and you could argue that as many as 5-6 RBs should go before
any other position is considered. Bell became the choice as teams
cannot load the box to stop him the way they can David Johnson or
Ezekiel Elliott. The second round was easy for me in terms of which
position to take. If you’re going to take one of the top 5
RBs, WR in the second is a must unless Devonta Freeman falls in
your lap. And, it was a bit early for a TE (even though I did end
up taking Gronk in the third round) so, WR it was and Mike Evans
was the top guy left on my board.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
Player(s) Missed out on: Three times, the wide receivers that
I was targeting were taken right before I was set to pick. I wanted
T.Y. Hilton at 3.02 but settled for Gronk instead. I wanted JuJu
Smith-Schuster at 4.11, but was forced to take a banged-up Alshon
Jeffery. I had Cooper Kupp lined up as my pick at 6.11 before
he was taken one pick prior. All in all, my WR corps is absolutely
not what I envisioned due to the three “misses” noted
above.
Final thought: Russell Wilson,
Le’Veon Bell, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski give me a great
scoring base from which production should flow. I also like Lamar
Miller and Marquise Goodwin as complementary pieces. Plus, I was
happy with my depth, particularly my selection of a couple of
promising rookie wide receivers (D.J Moore, Courtland Sutton).
I’m not pleased with my receivers as a whole, though, and
the Jeffery pick was made at a spot that I felt value didn’t
exist. I am pleased with this team but there are question marks
to be sure.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: I drafted
David Johnson No.1 last season and his wrist injury obviously cost
me any chance of winning the league. But his legs are fine and,
in fact, he should be well rested, so when Todd Gurley and Le’Veon
Bell were selected, I went back to Johnson for a second straight
year. With my second-round selection I went with Doug Baldwin over
the likes of Mike Evans (coming off a bad season, suspended Jameis
Winston), T.Y. Hilton (too inconsistent) and Stefon Diggs (too many
options for new QB Kirk Cousins). With the expected collapse of
the Seahawks defense, the only way Seattle wins games in 2018 is
by outscoring the opposition. Baldwin has averaged 1,062 yards and
9.7 TDs the past three seasons and with Jimmy Graham now calling
Green Bay home, Baldwin should be a lock for double-digit touchdown
catches.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
I had three players locked into my draft button ready to go, only
to be beat to the punch by my fellow owners.
In the fourth round I was set to take Jarvis Landry at pick No.46,
but he was taken one pick ahead of me. I think Landry is just
the guy to turn around the Browns passing game and he will see
top-five targets. I’m not sure he can repeat his nine touchdowns
of a year ago which is why I waited until round 4. I “settled”
for the last of the top-tier tight ends in Zach Ertz. With Alshon
Jeffery still on the mend from shoulder surgery, a majority of
his 18 red zone targets and seven red zone TDs are likely to be
headed toward my tight end.
I was again thwarted in round 5 when Derrick Henry was selected
two picks ahead of me. I went with rookie Kerryon Johnson instead.
While the Detroit backfield is crowded, Johnson offers the Lions
one thing the other guys can’t … the chance to not
telegraph their run/pass intentions. If LeGarrette Blount is in
the game he’s only running the ball and if Theo Riddick
is in the backfield they are likely throwing the ball. Johnson
showed he can both run and catch the ball at Auburn and again
in the first preseason game (rushing 7 times for 34 yards, receiving
4-of-5 targets for 33 yards).
I never added a second tight end on draft night. My only backup
target, George Kittle, was scooped up in the 12th round three
picks before I was ready to make him my selection. I’ll
have to use the waiver wire to add depth later in the season.
Final thought: Just six days ago,
I wrote a piece “One
man's opinion from here in Wentzylvania” in which I
stated that Carson Wentz isn’t likely to be ready to play
in Week 1 versus Atlanta. For that matter I expect him to miss
the first three games. Despite missing time, I mapped out two
backup quarterbacks which could be drafted alongside Wentz to
make a winning combination under center. I followed my own advice
and took Washington QB Alex Smith to fill in during the four weeks
that Wentz will miss (Weeks 1-3, Week 9 bye). I also added Eagles
backup and Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles late in the draft as
insurance, but like insurance I hope I never have to use him.
I have a deep receiving corps which I believe will lead this
team to great heights. Behind Baldwin, I selected Amari Cooper,
Cooper Kupp, Sterling Shepard and two talented rookies in Michael
Gallup and James Washington. If Gallup develops into the wideout
I think he can be, I’ll have trading assets should I need
them later in the season.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: I would
advise a RB-WR approach from the 4th spot in most 12-team redraft
leagues as it gives you the most flexibility in Rounds 3-6, but
we all know you need to adapt once the draft bullets start flying.
I’ve had the fortune of having the 4th pick in earlier drafts
so this spot is a familiar one. I’ve routinely taken the last
of the big four RBs available and paired him with a WR in Round
2. I was planning employing the same strategy but my round 2 WR
targets (Davante Adams, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen) disappeared right
in front of me. Time to shift and try out a strategy I knew would
be against the grain – taking RBs with my first two or three
selections. I’m starting to warm up to Mixon as the summer
rolls along and feel like his usage will assure him RB2 value as
long as he remains healthy. Starting RB-RB wasn’t the plan
but time will tell if the adjustment I made was the right one.
What
player(s) did you miss out on? I cursed “Crash and
Burn” for sniping me in Round 3 where I wanted Amari Cooper
as he was the last of my Tier 2 wide receivers. At that point,
I decided using a pick on another RB was justified giving our
league employs a flex position putting the finishes touches on
my three-headed backfield of Zeke-Mixon-Howard. I wanted to take
a flier on RB Aaron Jones (GB) late in the draft and considered
taking him at 13.04 but instead took a shot on Samaje Perine (WAS)
given he isn’t facing a two-game suspension and has a clearer
path to playing time. I was hoping Jones would still available
for my next pick, but he was gobbled up just a few picks later
(13.07).
Final thought: The late-round QB
approach was on display in this draft as Cam Newton (8.04), Tom
Brady (8.09) and Drew Brees (9.07) lasted well past their ADPs
while Dak Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr and Mitchell Trubisky
went undrafted. Depending on the type of owners in your league,
you might be able to keep pounding the RB and WRs positions well
into the middle rounds before biting the QB bullet. Mike Davis
was the last owner to take a quarterback – selecting Blake
Bortles in Round 17! Bortles fantasy output has declined three
straight years, but it may surprise you he finished as the QB3
(2015), QB8 (2016), and QB13 (2017) during that span.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: I might
have been tempted to take Saquon Barkley at the No.5 spot in a standard
league, but Antonio Brown seemed like a no-brainer in a PPR. I knew
I was giving up any shot at Hunt, Kamara, & Barkley by taking
Brown, but I felt confident there would be at least one high-upside
RB available to me with pick 2.08. Devonta Freeman fit that bill
perfectly in my estimation. I like his floor better than at least
two of the RBs taken ahead of him--and maybe his ceiling too.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
I missed out on Sammy Watkins, whom I thought I might snag at
6.08. He went early in the 6th, so I would have had to burn my
5.05 pick to get him. That would have meant taking Watkins instead
of Chris Hogan, which would have been a mistake in my opinion.
The WR personnel shortage in New England makes Hogan a virtual
sure-thing for the early season, whereas I can't be sure when
(or even if) I can expect Watkins to go gangbusters. (But for
the record, I think Watkins will go gangbusters before the season
is through.)
Final thought: The most interesting
thing about this 18-round draft for me was that I decided in advance
to take the best QB I could find in the 17th round (since the
last round is reserved, of course, for kickers). I don't mind
streaming QBs, and I'm not dissatisfied with Bortles as my only
QB--given what I paid for him. But I was surprised by how much
it simplified my selection process simply to exclude QBs from
consideration for the first 16 rounds.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: I did
not love my draft position at No.6, though I was hopeful one of
my top 5 players ranked would fall to me. Unfortunately, they did
not, so I was left with taking a player who had the least amount
of question marks in my next tier (OBJ). For round 2 I desperately
wanted to go RB, either Cook or McCaffrey, but again, both guys
were taken so I was “forced” to take choose between
A.J. Green and Mike Evans, who were the last two wide receivers
in my tier. I chose Green, and while my first two rounds did not
go as I had hoped, I can’t be mad that I likely landed two
top 8 receivers. Going WR-WR in PPR is typically not a terrible
start.
What player(s) did you miss
out on? Besides the guys I mentioned in the first 2 rounds
I got sniped quite a few times throughput the draft. I thought
Jamison Crowder (5.01) was taken a bit early but I target him
a lot in PPR drafts and was disappointed I missed out on him here.
Marquise Goodwin, Jordy Nelson, and Peyton Barber were also guys
that I was eying before they were taken just a couple picks before
me. Overall, McCaffery is the one that stings the most, one pick
before me in round 2.
Final thought: Quarterbacks definitely
fell farther than most “typical” leagues but I think
that was probably expected. Lots of different runs, most notably
with Quarterbacks and Defenses in different rounds, which made
me realize I’d probably rather start a run and reach a little
than miss out on a guy I want by being at the end of a run at
a specific position. Some of the best values in my mind include
Luck and Brees in the 9th, Samaje Perine (13.04), Cole Beasley
(16.05), and Jared Cook (18.04). Reaches to me include Aaron Rodgers
(3.10), Rex Burkhead (4.05), Mark Ingram (6.04), and Jordan Reed
(7.11).
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: Picking
at No.7 is something I will have extensive experience with. This
was the first of four snake redraft leagues I will be doing this
season and I pick at No.7 in a total of three of them. I also picked
at No.7 in two of my three leagues last year. I like picking in
the middle because you can extract value from players that fall
in every round. My goal in the first two rounds was to draft two
running backs. As you will read about in my forthcoming draft strategy
article, I believe there are 16 RBs that are a clear step above
the rest. Only four owners can have two of them and I wanted to
be one of those teams. Saquon Barkley is my RB5 so I was pleased
to get him at No.7. Obviously the first four RBs in just about every
league will be Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and
Ezekiel Elliott, and Antonio Brown always goes within the first
six picks. I just had to hope that extra pick in there wasn’t
Barkley, and it wasn’t. In round 2, I went with Christian
McCaffrey as he was the highest RB on my board. While I don’t
believe CMac will see 25-30 touches, nor would I want him to, I
do believe there will be a concerted effort to increase his usage.
Barkley has the game breaking upside and McCaffrey has the safe
floor – a perfect combination to start my team.
What
player(s) did you miss out on? Bill clearly read my Overvalued/Undervalued
report on Tyreek Hill as he sniped the Chiefs wide receiver one
pick in front of me in the third round. That one stung. But, I
persevered and was pleased with Adam Thielen, who had no business
still being on the board in the middle of round three. In the
majority of my mocks, I’m able to get Allen Robinson round
four and while I am happy with Brandin Cooks, I prefer ARob in
that spot - great pick by House of Swan. I was also not happy
that Fumbleweed grabbed Marquise Goodwin in the seventh round
before I could. I think Goodwin is a legit WR2 and he was the
33rd WR off the board. Credit to Fumbleweed there.
Final thought: Doing a real draft
compared to a mock really puts things into perspective. In a mock,
people are practicing. Here, everyone is doing what they legitimately
think is best. I realize that the RB drop off is real and it makes
the middle rounds very unpredictable. What this tells me is I
need to take the players I want when I want them and really throw
caution to the wind when it comes to ADP. With guys like Rex Burkhead
going mid fourth round, Chris Thompson mid fifth round, and Isaiah
Crowell early sixth round, it is clear my fellow drafters did
just that and is something I would expect to see in most competitive
leagues with experienced managers.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: I could
almost cut and paste from last year as our scoring system hasn't
changed: When receptions are worth a buck a piece, I'll be the guy
buying pass-grabbers all day long. The most difficult decision I
had to make (and I really didn't see it coming) was having to choose
between Davante Adams and Christian McCaffrey at pick 2.05. That
was too low for both of them IMHO as the former will be Aaron Rodgers'
main man this year and the latter should be an improved version
of the PPR monster he was in 2017. The temptation to pair the super
sophs, McCaffrey and Kamara, was very strong, but I ultimately settled
on Adams, a guy who could legitimately be the WR1 this season.
What
player(s) did you miss out on? I was drafting from beautiful
Maui this year with an adult beverage in hand, so there was absolutely
nothing to be complaining about. Nevertheless, missing out on
Marquise Goodwin in the 7th elicited some very adult language.
I think he's that rare sleeper who might still be vastly undervalued.
I also cursed myself for failing to back up Deshaun Watson, the
epitome of 2018 risk/reward, with a guy who hails from the gorgeous
state I happen to be vacationing in, Marcus Mariota. Marcus shouldn't
have been available as a backup and, alas, he actually wasn't.
Final thought: Speaking of quarterbacks,
backup or otherwise, I felt our group did a mostly enviable job
of properly valuing quarterbacks. I could quibble with the order
in which they were selected (Andrew Luck before Drew Brees?),
but the first one didn't come off the board until the late 3rd
round and the last starter didn't get selected until the 11th.
That's some serious restraint which is totally warranted in this
quarterback-rich age. Now, if my leaguemates could just restrain
themselves from jumping on defenses/special teams earlier than
the second-to-last or last round. Our first defense (LA Rams)
was nabbed one pick after the final starting QB (Ben Roethlisberger).
Even if the Rams end up being the top stopper unit (highly debatable),
are they really so much better than the Titans, the very last
defense selected (yours truly) in the 17th round? They were only
2.6 pts/game better in 2017, hardly enough to offset the lost
positional depth.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2:"Best
player available" is typically the best strategy to follow
in Rounds 1 and 2 in any format and that's what I attempted to do.
Melvin Gordon was the last of my second-tier running backs left
on the board and Keenan Allen was the last of the second-tier of
wide receivers. I'm happy about that in a vacuum, but the obvious
problem arises when you consider that both of these players are
on the Chargers. Still, I believe they're about the only players
on the San Diego offense who are guaranteed to touch the ball, so
I'm confident that they'll return solid value even if there might
be some down weeks if the offense struggles.
What
player(s) did you miss out on? I was getting excited to
see Travis Kelce slip down the board in the third round but he
ended up being selected one pick before me. It would've been nice
to lock up an elite tight end, but I don't believe Zach Ertz is
on the same tier as Kelce, so I opted to punt the position. The
only other player that I was very disappointed to miss out on
was Jordan Wilkins in the 11th Round. Wilkins could very well
start the season as the lead back in Indianapolis and that is
extraordinary value at that point in the draft.
Final thought: As is fairly common
in many industry drafts, the quarterback position as a whole slipped
way down the draft board. Only one quarterback (Aaron Rodgers)
was selected before the late-sixth round, which will not be common
in most home leagues, but it is a good representation of the value
of the position. The QB may have never been deeper than it is
right now, which certainly makes it worthwhile to implement a
late-round strategy with the position.
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: Picking
10th in a 12-team draft Isn’t a great spot, but my focus was
on getting the best RB and/or WR available with the 10th and 15th
picks in the first two rounds, avoiding high-risk players and hoping
to land high volume, matchup-proof guys who won’t be challenged
for touches/targets if they stay healthy. I think I did a great
job with Kareem Hunt and Michael Thomas.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
Perhaps it was wishful thinking to hope that reception machine Adam
Thielen would fall to me at pick No.34, but he was snagged three
spots before me by Jason Katz. I used that pick on Aaron Rodgers,
who was popping by the late second round on the Draft Buddy based
on our scoring system. I had Rodgers in a couple leagues last season
and the injury burned me, so my hope is that he can avoid a similar
fate in 2018. Katz also snagged Royce Freeman in Round 5 a few picks
before I took Dion Lewis – who I love, and not just because
he went to high school not far from where I work in Albany, NY.
Final thought: I saw a lot of reaches
for rookie backs this season, which I’ve come to expect from
experienced drafters who are willing to be a little riskier in their
efforts to land a gem. It’s clearly a smarter move than reaching
for rookie WRs or TEs. I was surprised to see many fellow draftees
taking just one QB – given how frequently these guys get injured
– though it’s possible I’m just gun shy from enduring
so many of QB injuries in prior years!
Strategy for Rounds 1 & 2: As
the 11th pick in the draft, I knew that I would need to be flexible
with my first two picks, as there were far too many owners selecting
in front of me to get my heart set on one or two players. My favorite
running back to target late in the first round is Melvin Gordon,
a player who continues to be ranked too low by the industry despite
back-to-back seasons of posting 12 total touchdowns for the Chargers.
Gordon went two picks in front of me to Nick Caron, which opened
the door for me to grab DeAndre Hopkins with the second-to-last
pick of the first round. While I am confident that Hopkins is
in for some negative regression he is still a great value in a
full point PPR.
I did not want to leave the first two rounds of the draft without
at least one running back, so I opted to take Dalvin Cook over
other wide receivers that would have been excellent options, like
Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams. Failing to grab
at least one RB at the turn would have left me with slim pickings
for my RB1.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
I am bullish on Dion Lewis in a full PPR format and was targeting
him in the fifth round as my No.3 running back to pair with Cook
and Alex Collins. A mini-run on running backs started by Bill
Anderson with pick 5.07 likely forced Antonio D’Acangelis
to pull the trigger on Lewis one pick before me at 5.10. Although,
I should have anticipated Antonio making that pick because he
only had one running back on his roster up to that point after
using a third-round pick on Aaron Rodgers.
The impressive performance by Kerryon Johnson Week 1 of the preseason
propelled the former Auburn Tiger up everyone’s draft board.
I entered the draft looking to gain a share of Johnson, but was
not certain how much draft capital would be required to secure
the RB. As we progressed into the fifth round I decided to target
Johnson should he fall to the end of that round. Instead, Crash
and Burn used pick 5.03 for Johnson, leaving me with Josh Gordon
as my No. 3 wide receiver. In hindsight, that might have been
a fortuitous occurrence for my team.
Final thought: Like most fantasy
players I typically wait until the last two rounds to select my
defense and kicker, but in this draft, I wanted to experiment
with using an earlier round pick to fill my roster with one of
my top two players/units at each respective position and see how
my team turns out. The opportunity cost of using the 12.02 (Vikings
D/ST) and 15.11 (Stephen Gostkowski) picks of an 18 round draft
is I gave up the opportunity to use those picks on upside RB and
WR that could turn out to be steals. It turned out that I was
still able to grab two upside players in Kalen Ballage and Christian
Kirk after grabbing my DST and K, making the risk worthwhile in
my opinion.
Strategy: Unless two clear RB1s fell
into my lap (I thought I may have an outside chance at pairing up
Fournette and Gordon), I wanted to come away with at least one clear
WR1 in a three-receiver PPR league to go along with a clear workhorse
running back.
What player(s) did you miss out on?
Alex Collins and Larry Fitzgerald were my primary targets at the
3-4 turn, but both got scooped up in the three picks leading up
to my back-to-back selections. I was prepared for Fitzgerald to
not make it there - Thomas is a similar fantasy producer - but
the choice of Collins right before made me go in a direction I
really didn't want to go (McCoy). Then again, I wasn't comfortable
going with my next choice at running back (Derrick Henry) either.
I pretty much got who I wanted after that, although it would have
been nice to land Drew Brees in the ninth round as my QB1.
Final thought: With the exception
of Antonio, this group of drafters did an exceptional job of waiting
on the quarterback position. I also encourage owners to wait on
taking their WR3 in a three-receiver league as long as possible
this year (assuming you grab two in the first four rounds); the
amount of quality back-end starting options at receiver blows
my mind. Owners in this draft were still drafting potential starters
at the position in the 10th and 11th rounds.
I'm not necessarily an advocate of taking team defenses high,
but I disagree with the notion that ALL owners must wait until
the final two rounds to take one (of course, depending on the
league's scoring setup). I don't care if the Jaguars repeat their
gaudy numbers from last year or not. They will be good and save
me the hassle (and some blind-bid money) of streaming defenses
- a strategy that usually doesn't work quite as well in the high-stakes
leagues in which I play. I wasn't smitten with any of the players
left on my board at the time and most of the players I was considering
at 11.12 made it back to me over the next three to four rounds.
Looking to ace your draft? 
