Too much of our real life is focused on the negatives, from the sewer of national and local politics to the corruption of school boards and our supposedly ethical business leaders. Join me in this exercise as I explain why we should strip away the noise where we can and try to concentrate on the positives in our fantasy pursuits. The object of this series of lessons is the penalty for interceptions.

The thing I really dislike about the interception statistic is that it is applied without consideration of who was really responsible for the turnover. Stop and look at it as a dynamic situation. For a catch to be complete, the QB must make an accurate throw, the QB and the WR must be "on the same page" and the defender can not be in a position to interrupt the play. Other factors also play into the equation, like if the protection schemes are holding up, are the defenders in a stunting/blitz package, has the defense correctly called a coverage that prevents the targeted receiver from being open, did the defense mask its coverage well enough, and so on.

The first example sprang out of the opening Thursday Night game. Kerry Collins, much maligned and criticized as a passer in fantasyland, was in a match up against a fantasy darling, Jeff Garcia. As a quick review, this is a comparison of the 2001 season statistics. Collins posted 3764 total passing yards with 19 touchdowns and was "credited" with 16 interceptions. Jeff Garcia posted 3538 total passing yards with 32 touchdowns and was "credited" with 12 interceptions. Depending on how you award points for yardage, TDs and those nasty interceptions change greatly the difference in fantasy value of these two men. In leagues that give more points for yardage, Collins closes the TD gap. In leagues that award negatives, Collins falls further behind.

Let's go to the game. 14:20 of the 1st period and Collins is in the shotgun formation. Collins looks to his left and leads a clueless Tiki Barber, who cuts off his route, and Tony Parrish intercepts the pass. This is a miscommunication error for sure. The commentator's join in the analysis and Joe Theismann, ever quick to spring to a fellow chucker's defense, laid much of the blame on Barber for not following through his pattern. The other commentators agree with this verdict. Blame on Barber, but in the world of fantasy football, Collins takes a negative bump.

At the 11:53 mark of the 2nd quarter, Collins is again the victim of circumstances when a pass intended for Ike Hilliard bounces into the grasp of Jason Peterson. Again, the commentators drone on about the bad luck that Collins is experiencing and lay the blame of the turnover on other factors.

Finally, with 13:15 left in the 4th quarter, you, the TV commentators, fantasy football and I agree that Collins made a bad throw when a pass sailed over Ike Hilliard into the loving grasp of Zack Bronson. One out of three negative plays could be laid directly on the head of Collins.

Meanwhile our fantasy golden boy, Jeff Garcia has been struggling all night long. Due to great coverage, aggressive calls and miscommunication, the vaunted SF offense has been sputtering through the majority of the game. In fact at the 11:44 mark of the 2nd quarter, Garcia sailed a duck somewhere in the area of Terrell Owens (who had a very quiet night) and was picked off to the general judgement of a bad pass thrown into the teeth of tight coverage. Blame goes to Garcia on this one.

So in an analysis of the play, Collins and Garcia are both guilty of one interception. But let's look a more complete picture. Kerry Collins had 28 completions out of 45 attempts for 342 yards along with those nasty 3 interceptions. Collins did not complete a TD pass. Jeff Garcia only completed 16 out of 26 attempts resulting in just 166 yards along with his 1 interception and he benefited from a great play by someone else that resulted in a TD play. Who was the better QB on the night? Not only had Collins completed more passes for more yards, but he also out performed Garcia on 3rd down completions (56.3% to 33.5%). I would say that Collins was the better QB on this night.

Now how does that relate to fantasy stats? I ask you, should not the scoring system reward players who outperform other players with a higher score? People fall into formulaic systems and miss the mechanics behind the scene. Here are three tables that demonstrate the variances of scoring systems and the performances of these two men.

As you can see with this one example, how overbearing the negative points statistic weighs on QB production. The general method to balance the negative points is to inflate the positive point scale, but looking at this case, under the -3 point heading, no inflation compensates Collins for his overall better night.

I prefer the scales where Collins would be given equal, if not greater, points than the struggling Garcia. Collins had more completions, more yards and a better 3rd down percentage. His problem was communication between him and his receivers. Garcia couldn't hit the broad side of a barn or the Giant defenders were blasting the Niner receivers into oblivion for the entire first period and if it wasn't for an outstanding cut and run by Garrison Hearst, Garcia would not have had his precious TD statistic to inflate his generally crummy performance.

While flipping around the games Sunday, I witnessed other such plays. Cleveland scores its first points (a field goal) from a Trent Green interception on a play that the intended target, Tony Gonzales, falls down in the route. Passes hit open receivers in the hands or even in the facemask, and it falls incomplete. Aaron Brooks is trying to lead his team down the field and "Boo" Williams lays out for a pass that bounces between his outstretched arms. I am sure there was at least one or two plays you witnessed this weekend that made you shout "Catch the Danged Ball, Stupid" as you rise out of your chair in frustration. Life is tough for Quarterbacks and they depend on so many variables to lead a team to success. Why should we degrade these athletes with one of the most abusive and inaccurate of statistics? Drop the negatives, they don't do us any good and they really don't reflect the reality of the game situation.

I look forward to your comments and will do a mailbag report from them. I will be back on this subject a few more times as the season unfolds as we look to balance scoring systems.

:: comments to dan sez