Average Value Theory (AVT) is a tool I devised in 2002 with original
article co-writer Christopher Annunziata. Its purpose was a simple
one, to provide all the usability of a Value Based Drafting (VBD)
draft board without using player projections. I found that a major
weakness of VBD was the requirement that owners develop individual
player projections, which are -- for those of you lucky enough not
to have done them before -- season-end stat line guesses for every
draftable player in the NFL.
Player projections are at the foundation of VBD. The fantasy
point totals calculated from player projections are used (via
baselines) to compare running backs to wide receivers (or apples
to oranges). Without projections, those comparisons that have
made VBD famous are not possible. Yet, think of what is involved
in creating player projections; think of how complex that task
is. Here is a single example of what might be involved in creating
player projections for a player:
- Get statistics covering the last three (or four, or five,
or two) years of that player's NFL career.
- Analyze those statistics to look for consistencies and/or
trends (are his numbers "going up"? are his numbers
"going down"? if so, how can you apply that trend
mathematically toward guesses about next year's statistics?)
- Examine off-season moves by that player's team; determine
whether those moves help or hurt his situation; attempt to translate
"help" or "hurt" into some sort of numerical
value that can be applied to guesses about his future statistics.
- Examine that player's team's schedule; determine whether it
is an easy schedule or a difficult schedule for his particular
situation; attempt to translate "easy" or "difficult"
into some sort of numerical value that can be applied to guesses
about his future statistics.
- Calculate the above list of guesses and numerical translations
into a season-end prediction of what his statistics will be.
Now that you've finished that player's projection, repeat the
process for the other 199 draftable players in your league.
You can see how that long string of guesses can add up to monumental
potential for error, consequently throwing your draft day board
into complete disarray. And, what's worse, should you at some point
want to alter your projections, there is a cascading effect that
takes place. Alter a quarterback's passing yard total, and you're
going to have to sift through all his running backs and receivers
and tight ends and somehow make the numbers add up.
The task is daunting, and not as scientific as it sounds. What it
amounts to is a chain of guesses ("help", "hurt",
"easy", "difficult", "going up", "going
down") translated into a mathematical process somehow, with
the final output being a numerical representation of how good you
think that player is relative to his peers. A numerical representation
that, unfortunately, has a strong relationship to other players
on his team; wrong about one, wrong about all. And we're all wrong
about most of them, I admit. Especially when we're attempting to
pin down a player's future statistics.
Wouldn't it be more simple to merely do what is at the heart of
the player projection process, and not get caught up in the mathematical
voodoo we practice every offseason? Why not rank players at each
position, and go from there? No, you can't do that, because you
can't translate pure rankings into a VBD board. You need projections
to get the fantasy points to establish the baselines to make the
comparisons.
Well, that's where AVT comes in.
AVT takes your player rankings (Top-30 QBs, Top-40 RBs, Top-50
WRs for example) and turns that into a complete VBD draft board.
It already has all the fantasy points, it has already made all
the comparisons, it just needs the names. There are several versions
of AVT, but here is how the most simple one works:
Using historical data, AVT calculates what each player-slot will
score on average. By player slot I mean WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4, etc.
Each one of those player slots is given a fantasy point value,
customized to fit your scoring system. These values are obtained
by taking historical season-end statistics, calculating the fantasy
point totals through your scoring system, removing the names,
replacing those names with player slot ranks, doing this for several
consecutive years, and taking the average. Very simple, very clean,
and standardized while still being customized.
Let me give you an example (using Fantasy Asylum scoring):
In 2002, Marvin Harrison was WR1 (the top-ranked WR) with 239.2
fantasy points.
In 2001, Marvin Harrison was WR1 with 242.7 fantasy points.
In 2000, Randy Moss was WR1 with 234.2 fantasy points.
In AVT, the fantasy point value for WR1 will therefore be: (239.2+242.7+234.2)/3
or 238.7
No matter if you decide that Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss or
Terrell Owens will be the top wide receiver, WR1 will have the
fantasy point value of 238.7 because that's about what WR1s usually
score. Did any of our above mentioned WR1s score 238.7 points?
No. But they were all close. Close enough, some might say. And,
I've found, often closer than what projection-makers will come
up with.
By replacing individual player projections with uniform player
slot averages, calculated from actual historical data, AVT is
not only far easier, but it standardizes your VBD draft board.
If there is error involved (and there will be some error on every
single player, remember, due to the nature of the calculations),
at least that error is standardized within the calculation system
so as to nor wreak havoc on the rest of your draft board. What
happens if your baseline wide receiver's projection is off by
a sizable amount... say 32 fantasy points? Forget for a moment
the actual name of the player. Instead, focus on what a baseline
player means to VBD. If your baseline wide receiver's point total
is off by that much, it is going to throw off the relational values
of every wide receiver on your board. Now, your top wide receiver's
VBD value of 93 doesn't make as much sense; he's really 32 points
more valuable than that. As a result, the relative values of all
other positions will be off. Now, WR8 isn't about even with RB22;
WR8 should be closer to RB17. That has huge consequences on draft
day. You might be taking the wrong position at the wrong time
because of your faulty player projections.
However, if you let history be your guide -- as AVT does -- you
know that all the relative and relational player values are in
accord with historical norms, no matter the presence of fantasy
point error.
An AVT-enhanced VBD board does what VBD boards are intended to
do. It makes a suggestion about which position to take at any
particular time in the draft. It is a complication of VBD that
it must rely on player projections. That need makes it to easy
for us to screw things up. The AVT process is easier, is more
structured, is fully customized to your scoring system, and it
will better maintain the apple-to-orange comparisons that VBD
seeks to provide.
:: comments to wade
iuele
Wade Iuele is a Staff
Contributor at FantasyAsylum.com.
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