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by Meglamaniac
7/1/99
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Welcome to the world of stats, projections, and positive values.
It’s a dark, secluded world, full of numbers and calculators
and make NO mistake about it, it’s not for everyone!! If you’re
not willing to put in the long hours of work involved, stop reading
now, maybe you’re not playoff material, grab yourself an ‘off
the stand’ cheetsheet and have a good time. You may do well,
but I doubt it.
Allow me to first say that this is not the only draft system, but
it is the system that works for me and it works consistently for
me. It’s not just enough to speculate on how a player is going
to do this year, you must also find a system that allows you to
take that information and apply it to your league and your situation
and this system does this very well!
Getting Started
The first step is to develop projected yearly stats for every player
you feel will be drafted... yes, every player. As I said earlier
“there’s a lot of work involved”, but I guarantee
you this... do the work, apply the system, and on draft day you
will have a huge advantage over the other owners in your league.
“How do I make accurate projections”? Hey look, nobody’s
perfect with projections, you’ll do well to get close, but
it must be done. I suggest finding other projections (many internet
sites offer them for free), take the average of these projections
and use this as a starting point for your projections, knowing that
the more projections you use to get an average, the more consistent
your projections are.
Now to the projection averages... add your own tilt to them, your
hunches, gut feelings and personal knowledge, to come up with your
own projections. Don’t sell yourself short, know the teams,
know the players and their injury histories. All of these things,
plus a thousand more, should go into your projections. OK, now you
have projected yearly stats for every player you feel will be drafted,
“What’s next”?
Plug these stats into your league’s scoring system and come
up with a projected number of total fantasy football points scored
for each player. Rank them, by position, form the highest to the
lowest and for now leave them separated by position.
Here’s the rub, The object of this game is not to score a ton
of points, but rather it’s to outscore your opponent! "How
do I do this?" you ask... by selecting players who outscore
their peers and not necessarily those players who score a ton of
points. People often have a hard time with this! “How can S.
Sharp’s 180 points be more valuable than Moss’ 280 points?”,
well that’s because it’s not a game of TE vs #1 WR, like
what’s played in stadiums around the U.S., it’s a TEAM
GAME!!
Everyone is bound to a starting line-up, as to the position we must
fill and it’s dictated by our league rules. Each week we will
play a team that is bound by the same rules, so the object of the
game is not to assemble a group of high scoring players (without
regard to position), but to build a starting line-up with the highest
scoring players at each position.
Assigning A Positive Value
Use your league’s starting line-up requirements to determine
the starters in your league. For example, if you are required to
start 1 QB and there are 10 teams in your league, then there will
be 10 starting Qbs n your league, 1 for each team. Now use your
yearly FF points totals at QB to determine the 10 starters for your
league. It will be the ten highest scoring Qbs. Here’s an example.
Quarterbacks
1. B. Favre 500 total points (+200)
2. S. Young 475 total points (+175)
3. J. Plummer 400 total points (+100)
4. R. Cunningham 375 total points (+75)
5. V. Testaverde 375 total points (+75)
6. M. Brunell 350 total points (+50)
7. D. Bledsoe 345 total points (+45)
8. S. McNair 325 total points (+25)
9. P. Manning 315 total points (+15)
10. B. Brister 300 total points (+-0)
Now, using Brister’s point total (300), subtract that form
each starting Qbs total. “Why”? Brister is the lowest
starting QB, so his value is zero (300-300=0), you will get a positive
value for the other starting Qbs.
Now do the same for the Rbs, but remember if you must start 2 Rbs,
then there’s going to be 20 starters in your league. The Rbs
with the 20 best total FF points will be your starters.
Running Backs
1. T. Davis 450 total points (+250)
2. F. Taylor 445 total points (+245)
3. D. Levens 400 total points (+200)
4. M. Faulk 395 total points (+195)
5. C. Martin 390 total points (+190)
6. E. George 385 total points (+185)
7. J. Anderson 385 total points (+185)
8. R Waters 350 total points (+150)
9. R. Williams 325 total points (+125)
10. R. Smith 315 total points (+115)
11. E. Smith 300 total points (+100)
12. C. Dillon 290 total points (+90)
13. J. Bettis 285 total points (+85)
14. N. Means 275 total points (+75)
15. D. Staley 260 total points (+60)
16. T. Biakabatuka 250 total points (+50)
17. S. Hicks 230 total points (+30)
18. K. Faulk 220 total points (+20)
19. A. Smith 210 total points (+10)
20. E. James 200 total points (+-0)
As before, the lowest starter is E. James, his value is zero(200-200=0)
By now you should get the idea, do the same process for WR and TE.
Wide Receivers
1. R. Moss 350 total points (+175)
2. A. Freeman 345 total points (+170)
3. J. Galloway 330 total points (+155)
4. T. Owens 330 total points (+155)
5. K. Johnson 325 total points (+150)
6. J. Smith 315 total points (+140)
7. C. Carter 315 total points (+140)
8. E. Moulds 300 total points (+125)
9. M. Harrison 285 total points (+110)
10. R. Smith 275 total points (+100)
11. R. Moore 270 total points (+95)
12. T. Brown 260 total points (+85)
13. J. Rice 245 total points (+70)
14. H. Moore 235 total points (+60)
15. T. Mathis 215 total points (+40)
16. F. Sanders 205 total points (+30)
17. Y. Thigpen 185 total points (+10)
18. I. Bruce 185 total points (+10)
19. T. Glenn 185 total points (+10)
20. J.J. Stokes 175 total points (+-0)
Tight Ends
1. B. Coats 185 total points (+115)
2. S. Sharp 150 total points (+80)
3. C. Cleeland 130 total points (+60)
4. M. Chumra 130 total points (+60)
5. W. Walls 115 total points (+45)
6. E. Green 100 total points (+30)
7. F. Wychek 95 total points (+25)
8. R. Dudley 85 total points (+15)
9. T. Gonzalez 85 total points (+15)
10. F. Jones 70 total points (+-0)
As you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned Ks or DEFs. This
is not a mistake, the difference in positive values between the
#1 K and the #10 K is minimal. The same is true for DEFs, so draft
them both late, very late.
Now that you have a positive value for each projected starter in
your league, rank them by highest value.
1. T. Davis (+250)
2. F. Taylor (+245)
3. B. Favre (+200)
4. D. Levens (+200)
5. M. Faulk (+195)
6. C. Martin (+190)
7. E. George (+185)
8. J. Anderson (+185)
9. R. Moss (+175)
10. S. Young (+175)
11. A. Freeman (+170)
12. J. Galloway (+155)
13. T.Owens (+155)
14. K. Johnson (+150)
15. R. Waters (150)
...and so forth
The Result
Put everyone together, don’t separate by positions. At your
draft use this list to keep track of who’s been drafted ahead
of you and when it’s your turn draft the highest valued player
available, regardless of position! As your draft continues, let’s
say it’s your turn in the 3rd round, you have already filled
your starting RB requirements and you still need 1 WR. There’s
a RB with a positive of 125 (R. Williams) left and a WR with a positive
value of 95 ( R. Moore) left. Who do you draft?? This is a tough
one, but if the value is greater than 40 between them, then take
the highest valued player, if it’s less than 40 go with your
gut!
Speaking of gut feelings... going into the 99 draft, I knew what
the numbers told me about Randall Cunningham but my gut told me
to avoid him, the year he had in '98 just seemed to be an aberration
to me. I trusted my gut and steered clear of him that year.
On the contrary, every year my gut tells me to avoid R. Moss...
I just have a bad feeling about the guy, but I ignore my gut with
him and trust the numbers and so far they were right and my gut
has been wrong.
Well, I’ve rambled enough :P I hope all of this helps explain
a Value Based Draft System. Sharpen your pencils, get to work and
have fun.
It’s always FUN when you win!!
:: comments to Meglamaniac
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