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Dallas Goedert was one of the "safe, reliable" tight ends who was going in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts in 2021 and that's about what he delivered. His 830 yards were fifth-most among all tight ends and while he finished with just four touchdowns on the season, he was a top-10 overall producer at the position on the year both in PPR and non-PPR formats.
While it's encouraging to note that Goedert was extremely effective on a per-target basis in 2021, the obvious concern is that he's not likely to see a significant uptick in total targets here in 2022, especially now that the team added A.J. Brown this offseason. Goedert was already in a low-volume passing game and he struggled to dominate targets even against the likes of Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor and rookie DeVonta Smith. When you consider that the team kept Watkins and Reagor, Smith has another year of development under his belt, and Brown is now on the roster, it's tough to imagine a world where Goedert suddenly produces significantly more than he did before.
Like Smith, the most likely outcome is that Goedert continues to be highly effective on the targets he does see come his way, but that his total opportunities remain about the same or even go down slightly here in 2022. That doesn't mean that Goedert can't continue to be a TE1 for fantasy, of course, as the position is pretty much a complete disaster outside the top five or so players. It does, however, mean that Goedert is unlikely to become a true difference-maker at the position this season and thus should not be a priority in fantasy drafts.
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