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Despite catching an outlandish nine touchdowns on just 49 receptions, Dawson Knox narrowly made the cut as a top-10 fantasy option in 2021. His 587-yard season was by far the best year of his professional career, but it ranked 15th at the position and his targets per route run were staggeringly low for a player who finished the season ranked as high as he did.
Touchdown rate regression is practically inevitable with his type of production, but if there's any hope for Knox to repeat as a top 10 option at the position, it has to be because the team moved on from multiple pass-catching options this offseason, including Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley. Certainly, not all of those targets will go to Knox, especially if you're expecting a breakout season from Gabriel Davis, but there's certainly hope that Knox could see more passes come his way this year.
Unfortunately, the team did also invest in the tight end position this offseason when they signed former first-round NFL Draft pick O.J. Howard. Howard spent five seasons with the Bucs and while he certainly has to be looked at as a bust, he's also not a complete zero at the position. Knox played over 76 percent of the Bills' offensive snaps this past season, while Tommy Sweeney, who is still on the roster, played about 22 percent. The risk here is that Howard and Sweeney could end up cannibalizing enough snaps away from Knox that he's just not able to get on the field enough to see his target share spike, thus limiting his true potential for a breakout season.
Knox is a player who will have his weeks, but like many tight ends, he's going to disappoint you on a fairly regular basis. There are other players who have less competition on their rosters and may cost less in your drafts, so avoiding Knox is probably a wise option here in 2022.
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