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2019 2nd round NFL Draft pick Deebo Samuel showed out as a rookie, contributing over 800 yards as a receiver while adding an additional 159 yards as a runner, scoring six touchdowns in the process. Samuel looked to be in a great situation to improve on those numbers heading into his second season in the league, playing on a roster of mostly unproven pass catchers aside from tight end George Kittle. Unfortunately, Samuel suffered a number of injuries, as well as a trip to the COVID-IR, which effectively led to a mostly lost 2020 season.
Samuel now heads into his third season looking like the third option in and offense that should still lean run-heavy. Samuel himself does make contributions on the ground, but in order for him to be a consistent fantasy wide receiver, we need him to see a heavy target share. Competing with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle won't allow for that every week, so there are bound to be frustrating weeks for Samuel owners, even if he's the type of player who can sometimes turn six targets into a usable fantasy day. There will be and have been times where he just doesn't see enough volume to be a fantasy contributor.
The harsh reality is that Samuel might just be a better real-life receiver than he is a fantasy one. His gritty contributions as a YAC monster make him extraordinarily frustrating for defenses to defend, but he's been held to four or fewer catches in 13 of his 22 regular season NFL starts, despite being the top wide receiver on his team as a rookie and playing without both Kittle and Aiyuk at times in 2020.
Samuel has contributed four 100-yard games in his career, he's never once caught a touchdown pass in the same week that he went over 100 yards. He's also never scored more than one touchdown in a game. This could certainly be an anomaly and he'll almost certainly get there at least a few times throughout his career, but the reality is that - through two seasons - Samuel hasn't produced any real "spike" weeks in fantasy.
Samuel's season-ending numbers will likely be fine and he's a fine player to target in best ball formats, but he's someone who's probably going to be frustrating to own in traditional season-long leagues.
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