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The Raiders have long been known as a franchise that values athletic measurables more than on-field production, but they still caught almost everyone off guard when they made Henry Ruggs III the first wide receiver drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft, despite Ruggs being the third-most productive wide receiver on his own team at Alabama in 2019.
Ruggs does fit the profile of being "the next Tyreek Hill," which is of course something that every team is searching for now that they've seen how successful it can be, but it's tough to not think that the Raiders made a rather confusing choice given their current personnel. Ruggs blew the doors off the combine this year with his blazing 4.25 forty yard dash, but he goes to a team that simply has not shown a propensity to push the ball down the field, in part due to their own coaching staff, but also due to their starting quarterback. Derek Carr has gradually transitioned into becoming one of the least frequent risk-takers in the league in recent seasons. Ruggs isn't exclusively a deep threat like some might be painting him out to be, but his skill set just doesn't seem like it's going to be a great match for what the Raiders want to do on offense.
With that said, the Raiders do have one of the most effective running games in the league and even though advanced analytics would tell us that being an effective running game has practically zero effect on play action passing, many NFL coaches still believe that it does. Therefore there's a real chance that the Raiders utilize the play action passing game to give Ruggs some chances to beat defenses deep this season.
The Raiders depth chart isn't great at wide receiver so it wouldn't be surprising to see Ruggs ascend it rather quickly into being an every week starter, but the chances of him leading the team in targets here in 2020 just don't seem very high.
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