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Speedster wide receiver Henry Ruggs III was the top player selected at his position in the 2020 NFL Draft, but fell far short of the lofty expectations as a rookie. Ruggs finished with just 26 total catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns, despite playing in 13 games. His season was disappointing from a standpoint of other rookies, as players like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk - who were also first round picks - far exceeded Ruggs' production; but it was equally disappointing in the context of the Raiders' offense as he finished fourth on his own team in receiving yardage and fifth in catches.
It's not a complete death sentence that a rookie wide receiver fails to produce, but Ruggs' season is already looking dangerously similar to that of former Bengals first round bust wide receiver John Ross. Ruggs was highly regarded due to his speed, similar to Ross, but failed to etch out a prominent role in his team's offense. That type of comparison certainly has to be worrisome for fantasy players as there really wasn't anything about Ruggs' rookie season that would give us confidence that he's suddenly going to take a big step forward in 2021.
Now that the team has moved on from 2020 top wide receiver Nelson Agholor, however, Ruggs sits arguably atop what has to be one of the least-skilled wide receiver groups in the league. There's a very high likelihood that his target share increases enough that he at least delivers a few splash games this season - the question is whether or not we're going to be able to rely on him beyond those few games that really would only benefit best ball teams.
On the surface, the Raiders' offense looks like an offense that's just waiting for another player to step up. We know that Darren Waller is the alpha pass catcher, but there's still plenty enough volume for another pass catcher to step up, similar to what Agholor did in 2020. If Ruggs can be that player, he will far exceed his current ADP. What's perhaps most interesting is that the Raiders' current front office and coaching staff is firmly invested in him being a success. The team has struggled to find players in the Draft and even a moderate level of success from Ruggs would be one of their best achievements thus far.
He's a risk to start the season, of course, but you could do worse than Ruggs if you're looking for a later-round dart throw. He's being drafted later than the 10th round in most leagues and that makes him a fairly cheap option who does have some serious upside if he can put things together in his sophomore season.
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