2004 Fantasy Outlook Coaches: Jim Mora (HC),
Greg Knapp (OC), Ed Donatell (DC) Passing SOS: 9th (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult) Rushing SOS: 17th (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult)
Looking at last year's season/numbers its easy to see where the
Falcons need to improve. Their 31st ranked passing game was no
doubt a direct result of Michael Vick's absence. The Falcons went
3-1 with Vick at the helm, (2-10 without) so his health is a huge
factor if the Falcons are to have team and fantasy success in
'04. Jim Mora (former DC of the 49ers) was hired as head coach
in January which will bring a slight change in offensive scheme.
Mora's assistants, Alex Gibbs, who will serve as assistant head
coach/offensive line coach, and Greg Knapp (OC) will be installing
Knapp's version of the West Coast Offense. Backup QB Ty Detmer
should be able to help mentor Vick in the offense that Knapp will
install as Detmer is a long-time WCO QB and is familiar with Knapp's
system, having played for him in San Francisco back in 1998. For
Vick to succeed in this offense he's going to have to improve
his completion percentage and decision making. We all know he
possess great athletic ability but the Falcons need him to to
mature into a well-rounded QB and they desperately need him to
stay out of the training room or another 5-11 season will be on
the horizon.
Quarterbacks:Michael
Vick, Ty Detmer, Matt Schaub
There may not be a more exciting player in the game today than
Michael Vick. He's the best QB on the team and with all apologies
to Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, he may be the best runner. While
his quickness and running ability sets him apart from other QBs
it also gets him into trouble; injury trouble. Last preseason
during a scramble, Vick suffered a fracture to his right fibula
which caused him to missed 11 regular-season games. The team is
hoping that Vick will make better decisions and work the WCO to
its potential. This system is great for a mobile QB like Vick
who can thrown accurately on the run but it doesn't call for double-digit
rushing attempts by the QB; Vick has had 7 such games already
in his career. Finding the balance is going to be key. He's a
double-edged sword for fantasy owners; a player with huge upside
but considerable risk. I would have no trouble ranking him 3rd
(as most prognosticators are)
behind Culpepper and Manning in a typical performance scoring
league but given his injury risk, the new coaching staff, and
the fact that he's still learning the WCO is enough cause for
concern. Vick is currently my #7 QB as a result.
Veteran Ty Detmer has been brought in not only to serve as Vicks
backup but to help mentor Vick in the West Coast Offense. Detmer
is a WCO veteran having served time in Green Bay, Philadelphia,
San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit. Third-round pick Matt Schaub
has impressed Knapp and the rest of the staff. He ran a version
of the West Coast offense at Virginia and has an outside chance
of beating out Detmer for the #2 QB spot.
Projected Stats
Michael Vick - 3,079 yds, 16 TDs, 9 INTs; 597 rush yds, 5 TDs;
307.6 FF Pts
Ty Detmer - 566 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; 14 rush yds, 0 TDs; 37.7 FF
Pts
Running Backs:Warrick Dunn,
T.J. Duckett, James Fenderson, Quincy Wilson Fullbacks: Justin Griffith,
George Layne
Its very difficult to get a handle on just how the Falcons will
use their two primary backs. If both stay healthy, this could
be a classic RBBC situation with both Dunn and Duckett having
similar fantasy points by seasons end. Dunn had surgery on a torn
ligament at the base of his foot seven months ago and because
of rehab, missed Atlanta's mini-camp workouts. When healthy, the
little man can produce yardage numbers thanks to his quickness
and receiving ability. He started six of the 11 games in which
he played last year and could have set personal highs in rush
yards had he stayed healthy.
Dunn's running mate, T.J. Duckett, has a nice combination of size
and speed and performed well after Dunn was placed on injured
reserve, scoring 4 TDs in his final five games. Duckett did make
improvements as a receiver but doesn't have the speed or possess
the home-run threat of Dunn. He will likely be used in short-yardage
and goaline situations which only muddles the "fantasy"
situation even more. Touchdown or basic scoring leagues will hold
Duckett in higher regard. Most yardage-based leagues will elevate
Dunn's worth and give fantasy owners two equal options to choose
from.
Projected Stats
T.J. Duckett - 712 yds, 8 TDs; 14 rec, 86 yds, 0 TDs; 127.8 FF
Pts
Warrick Dunn - 511 yds, 2 TDs; 54 rec, 395 yds, 2 TDs; 114.6 FF
Pts
Justin Griffith - 142 yds, 1 TD; 20 rec, 135 yds, 0 TDs; 33.7
FF Pts
George Layne - 11 yds, 0 TDs; 3 rec, 19 yds, 0 TDs; 3.0 FF Pts Wide Receivers:Peerless
Price, Dez White, Brian Finneran, Michael Jenkins, Terrence Edwards
The Falcons didn't have a receiver with more than 70 catches last
season. I guess when you're shuffling between Doug Johnson and
Kurt Kittner at QB there isn't much hope of posting relevant numbers.
Peerless Price is the leader of the group and the only WR heading
into camp with a starting position locked up. Atlanta would like
Rookie Michael Jenkins to fill the other starting WR spot but
he wasn't able to join the team until early June because of academic
obligations at Ohio State. Jenkins is a real big kid (listed at
6'4") with speed to boot. He ran a 4.4 at Ohio State but
will need as much practice time as he can get in order to bounce
Brian Finneran or Dez White from the starting lineup. Finneran
is a veteran receiver within the Falcons system but doesn't possess
the athletic ability or speed of Jenkins. Dez White had great
offseason workouts elevating his status and is currently listed
#2 on the depth chart. The three-way battle between White, Finneran,
and Jenkins will be one to watch during camp, however its only
a matter of time before Jenkins wins the spot... it may not be
until mid-season so fantasy value of these three is very sketchy
at this point.
Tight Ends:Alge
Crumpler, Justin Swift
Alge Crumpler is one the better pass-catching TEs in the league
and he will be utilized as such this season. "The reason we can
move him out from the line of scrimmage is that with his size,
speed and athletic ability. . .You don't see tight ends who catch
the ball away from their body like he does, just snatch it," said
head coach Jim Mora. "Plus, he's dangerous when he has the ball.
And he gives quarterback Mike Vick a big target." Crumpler’s 44
receptions for 552 yards last season were career highs and the
most for a Falcons TE since Junior Miller had 56 receptions for
574 yards in 1980. A healthy Vick should help to increase his
numbers and make Crumpler one of the better fantasy TEs in '04.
With the retirement of Hunter Goodwin, the backup TE position
is in flux. Justin Swift is leading candidate but has little or
no fantasy value at present time.
