Fantasy Football Today

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8/5/04
By Mike Krueger

2002 Results
Coach: Jim Haslett
Record: (9-7)
Passing Offense: 16th, 214.9 yds/gm, 27 TDs
Rushing Offense: 17th, 110.4 yds/gm, 16 TDs
Scoring Offense: 3rd, 27.0 pts/gm

Team Leaders
Passing Att Comp Yds TDs INTs Rating
Aaron Brooks 528 283 3572 27 15 80.1
Jake Delhomme 10 8 113 0 0 113.8
             
Rushing Att Yds Avg TDs Long  
Deuce McAllister 325 1388 4.3 13 62  
Aaron Brooks 62 253 4.1 2 21  
James Fenderson 13 65 5 1 17  
Curtis Keaton 12 19 1.6 0 4  
             
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs Long  
Joe Horn 88 1312 14.9 7 63  
Donte' Stallworth 42 594 14.1 8 57  
Jerome Pathon 43 523 12.2 4 64  
Jake Reed 21 360 17.1 3 54  
Deuce McAllister 47 352 7.5 3 30  
Michael Lewis 8 200 25 0 59  
Boo Williams 13 143 11 2 32  
David Sloan 12 127 10.6 0 29  

2003 Results
Coach: Jim Haslett
Record: (8-8)
Passing Offense: 8th, 214.9 yds/gm, 25 TDs
Rushing Offense: 11th, 125.0 yds/gm, 11 TDs
Scoring Offense: 14th, 21.3 pts/gm

Team Leaders
Passing Att Comp Yds TDs INTs Rating
Aaron Brooks 518 306 3546 24 8 88.8
Todd Bouman 13 7 81 1 0 98.6
             
Rushing Att Yds Avg TDs Long  
Deuce McAllister 351 1641 4.7 8 76  
Aaron Brooks 54 175 3.2 2 15  
Ki-Jana Carter 19 72 3.8 1 31  
Lamar Smith 11 61 5.5 0 17  
             
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs Long  
Joe Horn 78 973 12.5 10 50  
Jerome Pathon 44 578 13.1 4 40  
Deuce McAllister 69 516 7.5 0 39  
Donte' Stallworth 25 485 19.4 3 76  
Boo Williams 41 436 10.6 5 31  
Ernie Conwell 26 290 11.2 2 32  
Michael Lewis 12 226 18.8 1 39  

2004 Fantasy Outlook
Coaches: Jim Haslett (HC), Mike McCarthy (OC), Rick Venturi (DC)
Passing SOS: 5th (1 = Easy, 32 = Difficult)
Rushing SOS: 12th (1 = Easy, 32 = Difficult)

From a fantasy perspective the Saints have been golden the last few seasons. The three main offensive positions (QB, RB, WR) have produced fantasy stars and the late charge by Boo Williams last season has brought the TE position into the mix. Despite their recent "fantasy" success, the Saints as a team have been stuck in mediocrity... 7-9, 9-7 and 8-8 since '01. The have have too much talent for this trend to continue so something else needs to be changed. What is that something? A switch from a power-running, West Coast Offense, to more one-back sets featuring two-tight ends and three-wide receivers? I don't know if that's the answer but its the best they could come up with. On offense, very few personnel changes have been made. Aaron Stecker has been brought in as a backup RB and WR Devery Henderson was the Saints 2nd-Round draft pick in April. Henderson to date is not in camp. So the status quo remains in New Orleans which is likely to produce a nice group of fantasy prospects but may not give the real-world results the Saints are looking for.

Quarterbacks: Aaron Brooks, Todd Bouman, J.T. O'Sullivan
We all look for consistency in fantasy players and Aaron Brooks has certainly delivered on that trait. Three straight years now he's had at least 3500 passing yards and 24 TDs. He also gets his feet moving, averaging 321 rushing yards per season... all the while looking like he'd rather be knitting a rug. Outward emotion aside, Brooks has demonstrated the ability to succeed in the league; he is surrounded by talent and there's no reason he shouldn't continue posting numbers worthy of a top ten ranking. If Donte Stallworth can stay healthy throughout (a big question mark) his presence could push Brooks' numbers even higher than I've projected below.
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Backup QB Todd Bouman has been one of the bright stars early in training camp. Coaches think his familiarity with the offense will show well, should Brooks go down with an injury. He could be a nice value pick late in your draft.

Projected Stats
Aaron Brooks - 3,767 yds, 25 TDs, 12 INTs; 211 rush yds, 2 TDs; 321.4 FF Pts
Todd Bouman - 52 yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs; 0 rush yds, 0 TDs; 2.6 FF Pts

Running Backs: Deuce McAllister, Aaron Stecker, Lamar Smith, Ki-Jana Carter
Fullbacks: Mike Karney
Despite the solid numbers posted by the Saints passing game, Deuce McAllister is the focus of this offense. His 1641 rushing yards last season was good for 4th best in the league behind Lewis, Green, and Tomlinson. He also ranked 5th among RBs with 516 receiving yards. This season McAllister will be lined up in the backfield by himself as the team moves to more of a one-back offense. The hope is to spread the field more with 3-WR sets creating bigger running lanes for McAllister and bigger holes over the middle for TE Boo Williams. This change along with McAllister's proven ability and youth has him ranked high atop the FF Today projections/rankings sheet. He's a #1 fantasy RB in every sense of the word.

Aaron Stecker and Lamar Smith will serve as McAllister's backups and while serviceable they don't have the fantasy juice to pull off big numbers should they be called upon for an extended period of time. The Saints would likely use them in a committee role and increase the focus of the passing attack.

Projected Stats
Deuce McAllister - 1,533 yds, 10 TDs; 62 rec, 471 yds, 2 TDs; 272.4 FF Pts
Aaron Stecker - 95 yds, 0 TDs; 5 rec, 35 yds, 0 TDs; 13.0 FF Pts
Lamar Smith - 44 yds, 1 TD; 0 rec, 0 yds, 0 TDs; 10.4 FF Pts

Wide Receivers: Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth, Jerome Pathon, Michael Lewis, Devery Henderson
Joe Horn has been the rock of the Saints passing game the last few years averaging 1300+ yards from 2000-2002. Last season his numbers were on the decline but a big finish boosted him into the "respectable but underachieving" category... 973 yds, 10 TDs. That "big finish" was a 133-yd 4 TD performance in Week 15 which probably brings back both good and/or bad memories for some of you. The obvious question is whether or not Horn's last season decline was the start of a trend or an anomaly? He battled a knee injury most of the year which could account for his lack of consistency... a knee he had scoped back in March. He claims to be healthy and ready action with a new attitude... no more cell phones and trash talking... an understated Joe Horn? Say it ain't so, Joe.

One of the keys to Horn's success, or lack of it, in '04 will ride on third year receiver Donte Stallworth. For what its worth, Stallworth has trimmed down to three percent body fat. Now if he can just find a way to trim down the injuries, we'd all be happy. The Saints would like to make Stallworth a feature in the offense and have him start opposite Horn, but his constant battle with hamstring and leg injuries is forcing the Saints to look elsewhere for a speed threat... like rookie Devery Henderson, perhaps? Both could see a lot of time on the field along with Jerome Pathon if the Saints follow through with their 3-WR set approach. Henderson remains a holdout however and is losing valuable practice time while Horn, Stallworth, & Pathon seem to be impressing the coaches early on in camp

Projected Stats
Joe Horn - 81 rec, 1,116 yds, 8 TDs; 159.6 FF Pts
Donte' Stallworth - 41 rec, 657 yds, 5 TDs; 95.7 FF Pts
Jerome Pathon - 30 rec, 369 yds, 2 TDs; 48.9 FF Pts
Devery Henderson - 13 rec, 174 yds, 1 TD; 23.4 FF Pts

Tight Ends: Eddie "Boo" Williams, Ernie Conwell
Its very interesting to note the 2003 stats for Boo Williams. Through the first 11 weeks Williams totaled 13 catches for 89 yards, & 1 TD - He finished with 41 catches, 436 yds, & 5 TDs. Why the late season increase? Starting TE Ernie Conwell went down with an injury in Week 10 and suddenly the Saints tight end receiving options were slim and Boo. The fact that Williams outperformed Conwell has left an impression on OC Mike McCarthy enough of an impression in fact, that McCarthy will tinker with the offensive scheme to get Williams on the field more often. Conwell will be used also in this TE-By-Committee approach but since Willliams is the better receiver and provides opportunity for bigger plays downfield, he should get the bulk of the numbers from this position.

Projected Stats
Eddie "Boo" Williams - 55 rec, 595 yds, 4 TDs; 83.5 FF Pts
Ernie Conwell - 18 rec, 175 yds, 1 TD; 23.5 FF Pts



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