Start 'Em

Tampa has issues against the run.

DeAngelo Williams @ TB
In addition to receiving a season-high 15 carries last week in Indianapolis, Williams also doubled his season TD total by adding 2 scores. Amazingly, this marked his first 2-TD game since 11.9.09. Despite limited opportunities, Williams has rushed for 142 yards on 25 carries over his last 2. The last time Williams played at Raymond James Stadium (10.18.09) he rushed 30 times for 152 yards and 2 TDs. Clearly his number won’t be called that often, but he’s got some positive history on his side with 3 multiple-TD games in 8 chances against Tampa. He makes for an intriguing flex option as the Bucs have had issues against the run, most recently evidenced by Chris Johnson’s 190 rushing yards in Week 12. Tampa has allowed 13 ground TDs, tied (NYG) for the 3rd highest league total.

Reggie Bush vs. Oak
On Thanksgiving Day against the Cowboys, Bush received 19 touches to Daniel Thomas’ 7; over his last 5 games, Bush has averaged 14.6 carries and 3.6 receptions with 4 TDs. Everyone knows he’s not a “between the tackle runner,” but he’s receiving consistent touches and he’s got a plus matchup this week versus the Raiders. In addition to 10 ground TDs, Oakland has allowed 5.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs, the highest mark in the NFL - courtesy of 18 runs of 20-plus yards. The ‘Fins are playing improved football, winners of 3 of their last 6 games; it is worth noting that their last 3 losses have been by a combined 7 points. If they can remain competitive in games (they should this week), then Bush can continue to produce.

LeGarrette Blount vs. Car
Blount has stepped up his play of late, averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his last 4 games, 2 of which resulted in 100-plus rushing yards for the second-year Oregon product. Despite 2 fumbles lost last week, Blount also had career-highs in receptions (3) and receiving yards (56). He is turning it on at the right time for his owners, and he needs to be in lineups this week as the fantasy gods have bestowed upon him a tremendous matchup in the form of the Panthers. Carolina has served up 15 TDs on the ground, which is tied for the highest total in the league (Indianapolis). The Bucs should be able to get lead in this game, or at least keep from falling far behind, which will keep Blount on the field for more opportunities to do damage.

Marshawn Lynch vs. Phi
The Seahawks woeful QB play has them focused on getting Lynch a significant workload each week and he has averaged 26.5 carries over his last 4 games. Although he was held without a rushing TD last week, Lynch did find pay dirt on a 20-yard reception, marking 7 straight games(!) with a TD for the former Golden Bear. His yards-per-carry on the season (3.9) isn’t pretty, but what he lacks in quality, he makes up for in quantity (i.e. touches). He’s a very good play on Thursday night versus the reeling Eagles defense that just allowed 2 ground TDs to Benjarvus Green-Ellis.

Bench 'Em

Steven Jackson @ SF
After an impressive 5-game stretch from Week 6 through Week 10 in which he averaged 4.98 yards per carry and 116.6 rushing yards per game (with 3 TDs), Jackson’s play has regressed thanks to the Rams dismal passing offense and shoddy offensive line play. Over his last two games, with opponents loading up in the box, S-Jax has managed just 3.3 yards per carry with 0 TDs. He could be in for a very long afternoon in San Francisco as the 49ers continue to field a dominant run-stopping team. The Niners have held RBs to 75.5 yards per game (#1 in NFL) on 3.5 yards per carry (tied for 2nd). San Francisco remains the only NFL team to have not allowed a rushing TD in 2011.

Michael Bush @ Mia
Bush looks to make his fifth consecutive start in place of injured RB Darren McFadden. Last week he scored a TD for the 4th straight game, which salvaged his fantasy day, but he mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries (2.9 yards per carry) against the Bears. Bush’s value should not be underestimated as an every-down RB in a run-first offense; the Raiders 352 rush attempts are the third highest total in the league. But the Dolphins know a thing or two about run stuffing – they have allowed just 3 ground TDs in 2011, second only to San Francisco. Over the last few weeks, RBs Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson and DeMarco Murray have all been held in check by Miami. For lack of better options, you may have to keep him active, but keep lofty expectations in check.

Roy Helu vs. NYJ
I refuse to advise starting former Nebraska Cornhusker despite Head Coach Mike Shanahan’s “He's our starter, for sure” proclamation. Exactly 1 week ago, Shanahan remarked “…he's not ready for that (pressure)” with regard to Helu functioning as a feature back, then days later Helu not only started, but received 30 touches and racked up 162 total yards and a TD in Seattle. The talented rookie is clearly the superior option for the Redskins, but can Shanahan be trusted to keep his word? In Shanny’s world, maybe Evan Royster will cut into Helu’s workload this week? The Jets have tightened up their run defense of late, but still can be taken. If Helu actually gets the touches, he’ll do enough damage to be worthy of a start, but I urge you to be wary of “Shanahanigans.” I’ve been had at least twice this season.

Mark Ingram vs. Det
Ingram made some noise against an uninspired Giants defense on Monday Night for the first time since late October, rumbling for 80 yards on 13 attempts (including a 35-yard TD); 7 carries came in the 4th quarter with the Saints well in command of the game. Although Ingram leads the Saints in rushing yards (420) and rushing TDs (4), his 4.0 yards per carry seems meager compared to both teammates Pierre Thomas (5.0) and Darren Sproles (6.8); the latter two just seem to have another gear. Ingram does seem to be getting better though, but I need to see more before entrusting him with my fantasy season.

Wide Receivers