One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football team
is trying to decide between two players you think have identical
value. Knowing how to break a tie is important, as often a pick
comes down to a dilemma between Player A and Player B. The purpose
of this article is to not only identify pairs of players that are
considered of nearly equal value in 2023, but also take a look at
the process of solving those dilemmas.
Our first installment examines two quarterbacks entering into
their third NFL season.
Justin Fields burst onto the fantasy scene in his second season
after starting just ten games as a rookie. As a passer, Fields
showed moderate improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 as his TD-INT
ration increased and he completed passes at a slightly higher
percentage. Running the ball, however, is where Fields excelled
in a way that few quarterbacks ever have and that aspect propels
him into the top eight in current ADP.
Trevor Lawrence,
on the other hand, is a more traditional pocket passer who also
turned his TD:INT ratio around dramatically in 2022 - in fact,
more so than Fields. Lawrence also took a significant leap forward
in accuracy and yards thrown. So, which QB is the one to target
after the consensus top 5-6 are off the board? Let’s find out…
The Strengths:
The strengths of Justin Fields as a fantasy quarterback are fairly
obvious, but worth stating to create comparison. He can do serious
damage on the ground (1143 rush yds last season) in addition to
what he does in the air. To get a better perspective, it’s
important to note that only two other NFL QBs have ever rushed
for over 1,000 yards in a season (Michael Vick, Lamar Jackson).
And before you say it was just a career year, consider that Vick
never got to follow up on his 1,000-yard rushing season as he
served a two–year suspension for misconduct while Lamar Jackson did follow up on his 1,000-yard year with a repeat performance.
Jackson was also on pace to accomplish the feat each of the past
two years until injuries cut both seasons short. It can be done.
It has been done. And, with defenses having to respect Chicago’s
passing attack this season, Fields should be able to produce in
an elite fashion during the 2023 campaign. To be succinct, Fields
is a fantasy weapon like very few others that have come before
him.
Truly elite quarterbacks often make a significant jump in their
second season and as Trevor Lawrence did last fall/winter. What
makes the jump even more encouraging is that while Fields improved
his completion rate by 1.5%, Lawrence’s rate increased 6.7%.
That’s over four times the improvement that Fields demonstrated
from Year 1 to Year 2. Both players will be playing for the same
coaching staff as the previous year for the first time since they
entered the league, but Lawrence is playing for a coach that has
a track record of propelling QBs to new heights. Finally, the
Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley and were also able to re-sign TE
Evan Engram, meaning their once razor-thin receiving corps has
grown into a powerhouse rather quickly with Christian Kirk coming
off his best year as a professional as well. In short, Lawrence’s
performance curve appears to be accelerating more quickly than
any other QB in the league… including Fields.
The Weaknesses:
Justin Fields completion percentage is hovering around 60%, which
is only good for 31st in a league. Poor completion percentage
correlates to many things, but yardage in particular is affected
as QBs that don’t complete a high percentage of passes are
involved in many more three and out drives. Add in the fact that
Fields averaged less than 150 passing yards per game and that
problem comes full circle. Under 150 yards is a paltry number
by high school standards, much less the standards of the NFL.
If Fields is going to become a consistent top 5-7 fantasy quarterback,
there needs to be passing efficiency improvement - even if he
continues to run wild on the ground.
Trevor Lawrence is almost wholly dependent on his arm for fantasy
production. Don’t get me wrong, 17 yards rushing a game
on average for a quarterback is hardly Dan Marino territory. But
it doesn’t represent a great deal of value or upside in
fantasy land. In addition, with Jacksonville having a much better
team, there will be less playing from behind and thus a more balance
in their run/pass ratio. Lawrence will undoubtedly still have
a few big yardage games over the course of the 2023 season, but
in his last three games of 2022, he averaged less than 200 passing
yards while only throwing one touchdown. The Jaguars won all three
games by a combined 48 points. Garbage points begone.
The Verdict:
We need to consider not just what these two quarterbacks did last
season, but what they are prepared to do in the near future. There
are new additions to the receiving corps that should help both
have more success in the passing game, at least in theory. D.J. Moore is Chicago’s biggest offseason acquisition on the
offensive side of the ball and projects more of a lead receiver
than Darnell Mooney ever did. In addition, Chase Claypool got
a full offseason to better understand his role in the offense
and the return of Khalil Herbert means Fields will have an explosive
safety valve he can trust when plays break down. It is almost
irrational to think that the Bears want Fields running as much
as he did last year, so improvement in the overall passing game
is critical for him to hold value.
On the other side of the ledger, Trevor Lawrence will enjoy the
services of not only his productive trio of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, but also a player who was once a rising
star in Calvin Ridley. No player is likely more difficult to project
at the onset of the season than Ridley, but it’s hard to
imagine his presence not being an asset. I trust Jacksonville’s
coach more than I trust Chicago’s in terms of getting the
most out of a quarterback and I trust Lawrence’s growth
curve.
Game script is an interesting discussion point. The Jaguars appear
poised to play from ahead or in close games more so than the Bears,
which means that Fields could rack up a ton of fantasy points
in the second half of games while Lawrence takes his foot off
the pedal. Granted, Jacksonville is not an elite team just yet,
so they’ll be playing from behind sometimes too, but in
the end, game script differences are worthy of consideration.
The rushing prowess gives Fields the higher ceiling, but I also
think his floor is much lower. So, this decision comes down to
what kind of team you’ve assembled prior to your QB selection.
If you’ve already invested in several high risk-reward players,
Lawrence is the much safer selection. If your team lacks that
risk-reward element, Fields might be just the guy to infuse into
your squad. Whatever you decide, these two QBs will be fun to
track as the 2023 season evolves.
