Nobody needs to be told starting Cam Newton, David Johnson,
or Antonio Brown is a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have
studs at every position, though, unless you’re in the shallowest
of leagues. This is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help
deciding which bargain basement QB to use and which to ignore
on Newton’s bye week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions
at running back because David Johnson is a game-time decision?
Look no further. Need to know which of your unproven targets to
start and which to sit since you ignored Brown and went RB-QB-Gronk
in your first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may
not guarantee future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin
your Sundays in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays).
Read on for a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Quarterbacks and wide receivers are having
a field day against the Chiefs. Get Carr in your lineup.
Grab a Helmet
Derek
Carr @ KC (Thu): I have no idea what Kansas City is paying
Andy Reid these days but it probably isn’t enough. Despite sporting
the 23rd ranked offense and the 29th ranked defense, the Chiefs
are a Thursday night win over their hated rivals away from making
the AFC West battle really interesting. How are they doing it? Think
lots of smoke, a couple mirrors, and the league’s very best turnover
differential. Of course, KC wouldn’t be doing the chasing if Oakland
hadn’t snatched victory from the jaws of defeat three weeks running.
That’s a credit to their fortitude, however, and I like their chances
of making this one a primetime classic. Even if they come up short
(and I think they will), I especially like Carr’s chances of posting
big numbers against a secondary that’s yielded 1,000 yards and five
TD passes the past three games. Start Carr.
Jameis
Winston v. NO: Speaking of playoff contenders, the Bucs
are suddenly in the hunt after four straight Ws, two against legit
playoff-caliber squads (KC and Seattle) and one against a tough
Chargers squad (on the road, no less). Three of their final four
games are against division rivals (New Orleans twice and Carolina)
and the last is against Dallas, so it won’t be a fluke if Tampa
runs off with the NFC South title. They very well could, despite
a decimated receiving corps, because their division mates are currently
ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd against the pass (Carolina, New Orleans,
and Atlanta, respectively). Oh, and you’ll never guess who’s ranked
29th. Yup, it’s the Cowboys, so if you’re looking for a possible
surprise fantasy playoff MVP, Winston’s your guy. Get him in your
lineup if you’ve made it this far and keep him there. The matchups
are that favorable.
Brock
Osweiler @ IND: You probably DIDN’T make it this far
with Osweiler under center, but maybe he’s languishing on your bench
in case something happens to your main guy? If so, he makes for
an intriguing possibility this Sunday. No, he isn’t good at football
and certainly isn’t worth the 72 large Houston tossed his way this
past off-season. He is, however, capable of posting 20-point fantasy
days and has actually done that five times this season. One of those
times was against the Colts in Week 6 as the big guy led his Texans
teammates to a shocking come-from-behind win on the strength of
269 yards and a couple scores. Now that Indy’s offense appears to
be firing on all cylinders, a Lucas Oil shootout doesn’t seem all
that far-fetched. I’d start Osweiler over any of the following QBs,
for what it’s worth, and that’s saying something because…
Grab a Clipboard
Marcus
Mariota v. DEN: …I love this guy. Way back in August,
I tagged him, Carr, Winston, and Ryan Tannehill as likely Top
10 risers. Hey, three outta four ain’t bad, right? Despite all
the Carr-for-MVP chatter, Mariota’s been the best of the bunch
for our purposes (4th overall at the position) and is one of the
primary reasons I’ve earned a Week 14 bye in our work league.
It’s a good thing, too, because this will easily be his least
favorable matchup of the season. Denver is allowing only 16.9
points/game to opposing QBs and has faced a who’s who so far (Newton,
Luck, Ryan, Rivers, Carr, and Brees). I’ll give it to Coach Mularkey:
This “exotic smashmouth” thing has worked out pretty well. I’m
expecting a whole lot more of the latter than the former this
Sunday, however, and that means modest digits for Mariota. Sit
him down.
Ryan
Tannehill v. ARI: I’m participating in a Bad QB League
this season based loosely on Bill Simmons’ 2011 Grantland prototype
(Google it) and though I didn’t expect much, it’s been a helluva
lotta fun. How many interceptions can Fitzy toss this week? How
many times can Carson Palmer get sacked? How many terrible things
can Blake Bortles do in a single game? It doesn’t hurt that I’m
sitting in the catbird seat through 13 weeks and have somehow
managed to save Tannehill and Jared Goff (you can only use each
QB once). Needless to say, there’s no way I’m letting them go
unused with only four weeks left to play. The Ryan Tannehill Reclamation
Project hasn’t gone according to plan in South Florida and this
week he draws the league’s second-best defense (3rd against the
pass). If you thought he and the Fish looked bad last week, just
wait.
Blake
Bortles v. MIN: Despite his often unsightly play (4th lowest
passer rating of 32 qualified QBs), the aforementioned Bortles
is frequently one of the better under-center options for fantasy
GMs. In fact, he’s a legit Top 10 option with four games
to go. I’m guessing the only people who know that already
own him and would, accordingly, be the most inclined to start
him. I wouldn’t. The Vikes are likely out of the playoff
mix despite a white-hot start to the season, but are still stifling
opposing QBs. They’ve faced Matt Stafford (twice), Kirk
Cousins, Carson Palmer, and Dak Prescott during this late-season
swoon and have only yielded an average of 18.4 fantasy points/game.
That’s three full points below the league average for that
same five-game stretch and the league average doesn’t account
for quality of opponent. Those four guys are, inarguably, of higher
quality than Bortles. Sit him.
