If ever there was a time to ignore what the media says or reports
about the NFL, it may be the six weeks between the end of minicamps
and the start of training camp. At this point of the offseason,
information from OTAs or minicamps is on the verge of being outdated
or a bold prediction meant to attract readers during the slowest
time of the year. So, in an effort to scratch our football itch,
we check out some of our favorite go-to fantasy news sites and
we start to cement our feelings about players.
Did you like C.J. Anderson in 2015? Well, he trimmed down last
spring, checking in at a svelte 221 pounds. Even Peyton Manning
got on the CJA bandwagon, suggesting Anderson sounded like a "12-year
veteran" based on how much he had learned about the pro game.
The result? Another slow start.
In New England, James White and Travaris Cadet were battling
it out for the right to replace Shane Vereen last summer. In fact,
the two major Boston newspapers seemed to almost take turns siding
with their guy with new information despite the fact no one was
practicing. A couple of games into the preseason, however, it
became pretty clear an oft-injured journeyman named Dion Lewis
was easily the best player in the backfield. ESPN Boston's Mike
Reiss suggested that Lewis "should not be overlooked"
in the backfield competition, but his
June tweet was the strongest commitment any reporter made
about his chances to win the job. If three different sources
close to the team - each of whom get to see a fair amount of practices
during the spring and summer - miss the obvious, perhaps putting
our faith in them isn't always the greatest idea. Then again,
they aren't scouts; maybe their boss' orders are not to look for
the next big thing but rather focus on the leaders in the clubhouse.
The point is: We don't know.
For owners in dynasty leagues, this time of the year often presents
a window to deal away a player on your roster whose value you
are certain has hit its zenith (or deal for a player whose value
is supposedly spiraling). Offseason reports are the only piece
of information most owners have at their disposal, so “verification”
that Player X’s role is about to expand or decrease can
sometimes be all the push an owner needs to submit/approve a trade
they have been stalling on for days or weeks.
As a result, over the next two weeks, I’m going to try
to provide a respectable opinion on how the offseason buzz from
all 32 teams translates to fantasy owners. This week, we’ll
take a look at what is buzz-worthy in the AFC:
Note: All ADPs are for 12-team PPR leagues
courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator
Baltimore
The offseason free-agent signing of WR Mike Wallace went from
a bit of a luxury to a necessity last week when WR Breshad Perriman
reportedly suffered a partially torn
ACL at OTAs and WR Steve Smith declined
to put a timetable on his return from an Achilles' injury.
Considering the alternative, Perriman received the best possible
news on June 14 when it was revealed he would not need a knee
reconstruction but rather a knee scope and stem cell injection.
On the other hand, it is very possible Smith really has no idea
when he will be ready to go for what he hopes is his final season.
Bear in mind that in addition to Smith's age - he will be the
oldest receiver in the NFL at 37 this season - Achilles' injuries
typically require close to two full years for an athlete to get
back to full health. (Smith suffered his injury on Nov. 1 and
has yet to participate in any offseason workouts.)
To this point of the offseason, the talk about Baltimore running
backs has primarily been focused on back end of the roster and
not the front end. Part of the reason for that is former No. 3
overall pick Trent Richardson is among the three backs (along
with Lorenzo Taliaferro and Terrance West) likely being considered
for the last
of the (likely) four spots that will be handed out at the
position. The case could be made the order of the first three
spots is every bit as interesting, not to mention more important
to fantasy owners. Justin Forsett, Javorius Allen and rookie fourth-rounder
Kenneth Dixon are pretty much locks to be active for Week 1, but
what are the odds Forsett keeps his starting job or Allen remains
his handcuff all season?
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: I could
have focused on any of the four fantasy positions on this team
- the amount of injuries the Ravens suffered last season was ridiculous
to say the least. (Check out the top storyline in this
article for a partial list of what the team is dealing with
injury-wise coming off last season.) I chose wide receiver and
running back in part because I have sincere doubts that QB Joe
Flacco or TE Ben Watson are going to emerge as every-week starts
in 2016. It should come as no surprise if Kamar Aiken and Wallace
end up being Baltimore's top receivers this year, if only because
Smith faces long odds of regaining the explosion that has made
him special throughout the entirety of his career and Perriman
cannot be counted on given his injury woes from last year. If
that is how this situation plays out, Aiken would be a semi-reasonable
bet to approach the 75 catches and 944 yards receiving he managed
last year. However, Wallace would figure to be the slightly better
play, in part because as a WR3 (which is what I would expect Aiken
to be as well), Wallace could deliver several week-changing fantasy
performances. As you may have guessed from my Rookie Impact
article, I fully expect Dixon to eventually beat out Forsett and
Allen and become the Ravens' top back. In an effort to not repeat
my rationale from two weeks ago, Dixon simply brings more to the
table than Allen and has more juice in his legs than Forsett,
who is nearly nine years older. For the increasing number of owners
who are willing to go receiver-heavy early and wait on the running
back position in their drafts, Dixon has the feel of one of those
later-round options that could make that strategy pay off.
Buffalo
For the second time in as many years, an injury to WR Sammy Watkins
(Jones' fracture) is dominating the headlines in Bills' country.
Details have been sketchy at best up to this point regarding the
timetable and progress of his recovery from offseason foot surgery
sometime in late April or early May, with one source saying
6-8 weeks, while others are predicting the start
of training camp and still others suggesting he'll miss camp
but be back in time
for the regular-season opener. Despite reportedly playing with
stress fractures last season, Watkins averaged 8.9 targets, 5.4
catches, 100 yards, and a touchdown per game after his infamous call
for 10 targets per game before Week 9.
TE Charles Clay nearly broke the bank as a free agent last year
and told The Buffalo News a week later the Bills "don't
want him coming off the field". To some degree, they
followed through on that plan during the early part of 2015 season,
as the ex-Dolphin saw 13 targets in a game twice through the end
of Week 6. Of course, his relative involvement from that point
on could have had as much to do with Watkins working his way back
from a hip ailment - not to mention early calf and ankle injuries
- as anything. Watkins made his 10-target plea a few weeks later
and Clay was eventually lost for the season with a back injury.
Proving that coaches do their fair share of introspection during
the offseason (something that doesn't always seem to happen),
OC Greg Roman and QB coach David Lee have vowed to make Clay more
productive this year after some film analysis
revealed a number of times in which the tight end was open or
in single coverage and QB Tyrod Taylor simply did not look in
his direction.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The receiver position is the
only one in which there is any immediate uncertainty in Buffalo.
Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Clay each have a firm grasp on quarterback,
running back and tight end, respectively. The same can be said
for Watkins, but the growing list of his injuries makes him something
of a fantasy wild-card entering this season. Considering Watkins
is all Buffalo really has at wideout, it is imperative for Taylor's
fantasy value that Watkins can play the majority of games. When
injuries aren't a concern for the third-year wideout, the second-half
numbers posted above should be a realistic expectation for him
moving forward. As he proved toward the end of last season (and
especially against New York Jets CB Darrell Revis in Week 17),
most NFL cornerbacks a healthy Watkins. Durability is easily his
biggest obstacle, and it will depend solely on the risk tolerance
of owners whether or not he is worth a second-round pick in fantasy
or eventually slips into the fourth to fifth round. For as much
of a disappointment as Clay might have been last season, he was
pretty much on the same pace he established during his final year
in Miami in 2014. He has settled in as a high-end TE2 for fantasy
purposes and probably will remain that way, although a multi-week
injury to Watkins would probably make him the de facto top option
in the passing game and bump him up to low-end TE1 status. It
is promising to see Roman and Lee publicly address the fact Clay
was overlooked a lot of times in his first year as a Bill, and
it is not as if Roman's offense can't make use out of the tight
end position (he was the play-caller for two of Vernon Davis'
three most productive seasons in San Francisco in 2011 and 2013).
Watkins' health and the degree to which Roman makes Clay a priority
this season will ultimately determine whether or not he pushes
his career highs of 69 receptions, 759 yards and six touchdowns
or finishes in the low-to-mid 50-catch range he has over the past
two seasons.
Cincinnati
Without a doubt, TE Tyler Eifert's 3-4 month recovery timetable
to repair a loose ligament in his ankle is the biggest concern
for the Bengals heading into the season. Eifert suffered the injury
in the 2015 Pro Bowl and initially chose rest to heal what was
thought to be "just a sprained ankle". When he was still
having problems with it four months later, he opted for a late
May surgery that might keep him for out the first
couple of games this season. Unlike Sammy Watkins earlier,
there does not appear to be much hope for Eifert to make an appearance
in training camp and/or see any preseason action. To that end,
Cincinnati has been
encouraged by second-year TEs Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah
thus far.
WR Brandon LaFell made his name in New England last year by
doing the one thing pass-catchers can't do: drop the ball. The
Bengals don't seem concerned by his past or present, which
has featured more of the same. At the moment, the belief seems
to be he's the clear frontrunner
over rookie second-round pick Tyler Boyd for a starting job opposite
A.J. Green, with the team hoping the more time the veteran has
to feel comfortable within the scheme, the more consistent he
will be. Meanwhile, Boyd is expected to start the season as the
main slot receiver. The rookie was charged with a drop on only
2.3 percent of the 128 targets he received at the University of
Pittsburgh last year and was one of the better route-runners in
the draft. When one receiver has established that he has good
hands and will be where the quarterback expects him to be, it
seems as if it will only take a matter of time before he forces
his way into the lineup.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Along with perhaps Jordan
Reed, there aren't a lot of tight ends like Eifert who can give
Rob Gronkowski much of a run in fantasy, so any missed time takes
him out of second-round consideration and probably drops his stock
by at least two rounds (and probably more if word comes out later
in the summer that he must miss more than one or two games). With
more tight ends in new situations likely to make an impact in
fantasy - such as Coby Fleener and Ladarius Green - there should
be even less rush to reach on an injury risk such as Eifert. About
the only thing LaFell has going for him is potential opportunity;
the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu contributed greatly
to his arrival in Cincinnati. Without going into deep analysis
about the matter, Boyd will almost certainly prove to be the better
and more trustworthy receiver, so it is hard to make a case for
LaFell essentially sliding into Jones' role as the unquestioned
No. 2 receiver in this offense. Furthermore, the Bengals like
fifth-round rookie WR Cody Core, and it wouldn't be terribly surprising
if he also bumped LaFell down the depth chart before the end of
the season. LaFell and Boyd are both currently going undrafted
in 12-team PPR leagues, however, which doesn't make a lot of sense.
Even if WR A.J. Green digs sees 10-15 percent of the 152 targets
Jones and Sanu combined for last year, there are a ton of targets
still available, especially if Eifert's absence extends past the
first two weeks of the regular season. I'd be stunned if LaFell
or (most likely) Boyd doesn't end up this season as a top-50 receiver,
which means at least one of the two should be a serviceable WR4.
Cleveland
There is going to be plenty of time to talk about rookie WR Corey
Coleman, who reported to minicamp out
of shape in the eyes of new HC Hue Jackson before turning
it around less than a month later. Additionally, if WR Terrelle
Pryor continues to garner the same
positive publicity he has from the new coaching staff during
training camp and shows well in the preseason, you have my word
I will address it. However, if Cleveland is going to go anywhere
this season (and fantasy owners are going to profit from any player(s)
on the team), look no further than the running back position.
Jackson has favored a punishing ground game in each of his last
two stops and it should come as no surprise if he does so again
with the Browns given how unsettled the quarterback position is
and unproven the prospects at receiver are. Jackson managed to
get a great deal of production from Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard
in Cincinnati, and it is not a stretch to say that RBs Isaiah
Crowell and Duke Johnson can be a similar tandem. There is a belief
the Browns are showing "immense
confidence" in Isaiah Crowell and that he will get a
"great opportunity" considering the fact they did not
draft a running back or sign a veteran free agent. Jackson has
been effusive in his praise of Johnson and reportedly sees him
as a three-down
back. "Duke has suddenness
and quickness and he can go catch the ball with anybody. He
does so many different things that gives your offense a boost,"
Jackson said. Run-game coordinator Kirby Wilson, who's coached
two of the NFL's top-four all-time reception leaders (Larry Centers
and Keith Byers), echoed similar thoughts: "He's very comfortable
in space, he's got natural ability to catch the football and he
knows how to run routes. He is what you would call an ultimate
weapon for us. He is a running threat, obviously, and he is a
pass-receiving threat."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: When a coordinator
moves from play-caller in one city to a NFL head coach in another,
there is a natural inclination that he will take Player X and
have him do exactly what the similar player from his former team
did. It rarely plays out that way but in this case, there is plenty
of reason to believe Johnson will fill the Bernard role in this
offense and then some. After all, it's not as if Cleveland has
a target monster like A.J. Green to strike fear into safeties
and keep the defense honest. As a result, the Browns are going
to need to rely on their running backs more than the Bengals ever
did under Jackson. As perhaps the second-most trusted weapon in
the passing game to start the 2016 season behind TE Gary Barnidge,
Johnson seems like a good bet to eclipse the 154 carries and 49
receptions Bernard tallied a season ago. He should be firmly in
the RB2 conversation in PPR leagues, if not standard as well.
Remember, Johnson was being talked up as a potential three-down
back last summer as well before a preseason hamstring injury and
concussion slowed those plans down. As for Crowell, the inside-pounder
role Hill played under Jackson seems perfectly reasonable for
him. It seems highly unlikely Crowell will achieve the same level
of success - 1124 yards rushing and nine touchdowns in 2014, 794
yards rushing and 12 total touchdowns in 2015 - simply because
Cleveland isn't going to spend nearly as much time down by the
goal line as Cincinnati has, but volume should be on his side
even if Johnson eclipses 250 touches. Consider Crowell a mid-range
RB3 for now.
Denver
Wide receiver is pretty much settled and running back should
be, so let's focus in on Peyton Manning's successor under
center. Heading into training camp, rookie first-rounder Paxton
Lynch appears to be a distant third while Mark Sanchez and Trevor
Siemian are "looking
at each other in the eye for No. 1". Sanchez has the
clear advantage in terms of overall experience, Siemian is the
only quarterback that knew what HC Gary Kubiak's playbook looked
like before this spring and Lynch is attempting to transition
from a spread offense at the University of Memphis. The problem
is Lynch most resembles the kind of quarterback Kubiak wants in
his offensive system (able to serve as a running threat on bootleg
throws with an arm to strike fear into a defense).
The tight end in a Kubiak offense is almost always a place to
look for sneaky good fantasy production. Typically, that honor
has fallen into the lap of Owen Daniels, but the longtime Kubiak
pupil was released in the offseason, presumably because the team
felt strongly that 2015 third-round pick Jeff Heuerman would be
ready
to take over the role. Heuerman never got a chance to show
what he could do last year, however, as he suffered an ACL injury
at rookie minicamp and missed the season. GM John Elway has said
publicly he expects the Ohio State product be "step
in and be a force" while Kubiak has stated, "We're
counting on him big time." Considering Virgil Green wasn't
able to carve out more playing time even as Daniels or Vernon
Davis were mostly unproductive last year makes him seem like a
longshot in this competition. Free-agent pickup Garrett Graham
is a former Kubiak pupil as well, but he's mostly a catch-only
tight end (and not a great blocker).
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: As much as casual observers
want to diminish Siemian's chances at the starting quarterback
job based on the fact he was a seventh-rounder or that he only
took one snap last year (a kneel-down), the reality is he fell
in the 2015 draft by at least a couple rounds because he tore
his ACL in late November 2014 during his final year at Northwestern.
Although he doesn't have the natural arm talent or athleticism
of Lynch, Siemian has a big edge in terms of knowing what Kubiak
wants. That's a big deal and helps explain how such a "poor"
prospect could be tied with a former No. 5 overall pick and is
well ahead of a hot-shot rookie first-rounder before camp. Siemian
has a great chance of winning the job out of camp but faces long
odds of keeping it for any length of time. If there is so much
uncertainty about this job, why does it even matter who wins it?
Because WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders make it matter.
Even if neither receiver catches more than 80 balls this season,
when is the last time when a quarterback had two top-20 receivers
and wasn't at least a high-end fantasy QB2 option or strong matchup
play? If pressed, I'd say Sanchez has about a 55 percent chance
of winning the job out of camp, followed by Siemian at 35 percent
and Lynch at 10. I'd completely reverse the order of those players
for how I see it stacking up at the end of the season. I am willing
to bet, however, that the "winner" is going to be somewhat
relevant in fantasy.
Heuerman drew Heath Miller comparisons out of Ohio State, so
combined with Kubiak's tight end-friendly offense and the fact
whichever quarterback wins the starting job will probably be looking
over his shoulder a bit, he'll probably want to make the high-percentage
throw more often than not. Much like Miller, Heuerman is unlikely
to break into the fantasy TE1 conversation, but he is going to
be involved and can be had for a song - he is going undrafted
even in 14-team leagues. I'm willing to bet, barring injury, he
makes a strong bid to finish 2016 as a top-15 fantasy tight end.
Houston
The arrow
is pointing up on QB Brock Osweiler and he has been "exactly
what we've expected" in the words of HC Bill O'Brien.
Nevertheless, the running game will remain
the foundation of what the Texans do, according to OC George
Godsey. Still, that focus doesn't take away from the fact that
someone besides WR DeAndre Hopkins is going to need to be the
person on the receiving end of Osweiler's passes. So while Houston
felt the need to improve the talent it had at the position in
the draft by spending a first-round pick on Will Fuller and a
third-round selection on Braxton Miller, there is no guarantee
either one will be starting Week 1. Obviously, Fuller is the heavy
favorite due to his draft status and blazing speed, which makes
him a good complement for Hopkins, but 2015 third-round pick Jaelen
Strong may be ready to put an up-but-mostly-down rookie season
behind him, one in which he was listed at 217 pounds but soared
to 230 before dropping around 200 near the end of the year. He's
reportedly at 197 now and O'Brien has taken notice, telling
the Houston Chronicle, "He had a really good offseason.
He's in really good shape. He's playing well. Hopefully, it continues.
He's a guy that we're definitely counting on."
If finding a second receiver last year could have been considered
a small inconvenience, then finding a Texans' tight end who could
occasionally make defenses think twice about loading up to stop
Hopkins became a major headache. Only once did a Houston tight
end finish with at least four catches in a game (Ryan Griffin,
Week 12), leading to the second-worst fantasy total by a team
last year. Enter University of California alum Stephen Anderson,
who could be the rare rookie tight end to make an impact but do
so as an undrafted free agent. At 6-2 and 230 pounds, Anderson
runs a 4.58, has a 38-inch vertical leap and 9' 11" broad
jump, so this isn't a situation in which a tight end will draw
a ton of off-season praise only to spend 80 percent of his snaps
blocking in Year 1. "He has done a really good job of learning
the plays and going out there in a non-padded practice; he’s shown
us some good things." O'Brien
told the Chronicle.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: What are the chances that a Texans' receiver
besides Hopkins is going to set the fantasy world on fire? Admittedly
not good. Fuller was a drop-prone receiver at Notre Dame and Miller
is still transitioning from college quarterback to pro receiver,
although he did get a head start on the position switch in his
final year of college at Ohio State. Strong cannot and should
not be dismissed from the conversation, however, because while
Fuller was considered a reach by some and Miller is a project,
the second-year wideout started to come on at the end of last
season and was thought to be a first-round talent by some last
spring. Strong is never going to be a speed receiver - even at
his new weight - but his ability to block and win 50/50 balls
makes him a deep threat even if he doesn't have smoke coming out
of his shoes like Fuller. Perhaps 2016 ends up being a repeat
in that Hopkins is the only Houston receiver worth caring about
for fantasy purposes, but if he gets injured, I suspect Strong
or Cecil Shorts III (in that order) will be the Texans that step
up the most to fill the void.
Anderson gets a mention here because if a young tight end is
going to step up and appear on the fantasy radar, it will be in
the "F" tight end role. It's the position Aaron Hernandez
occupied during his career year for O'Brien when he was the play-caller
in New England in 2011. Given the lack of production at tight
end last year and no Rob Gronkowski to speak of in Houston, it
isn't crazy to believe another undersized tight end with great
athleticism can't be a 40-50 catch player in the same offense.
Anderson needs to be on the radar of dynasty owners for sure.
In redraft leagues, however, the All-Pac-12 honorable mention
selection will probably do well just to be a low-end TE2 consideration
this season.
Indianapolis
Quick … name a Colts' running back besides Frank Gore. Congratulations
if you said Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, Tyler Varga or Josh
Ferguson. Considering Turbin and Todman have established themselves
as journeymen, it seems reasonable to believe they will be kept
around only if Indianapolis has no better options. Varga generated
a little bit of buzz last year, but he wrestled with retirement
after feeling the effects of a concussion (that put him on IR)
for about four months after it happened, so his long-term playing
future appears to be much doubt. By process of elimination, Ferguson
is the only one that remains. That is not to suggest the undrafted
rookie free agent is one injury away from being the featured back
in Indy this year, but perhaps he will be the next best thing
- the unquestioned best back in passing-down situations the team
has beyond Gore. The Colts obviously did not draft Ferguson, but
reportedly were
intrigued enough by him they asked his agent to name his price
in order to get the college free agent to sign. One team source
went so far as to say he was a
strong consideration as early as the fourth round. Ferguson
obviously has his own shortcomings - namely durability issues
while at the University of Illinois - but brings a certain "space-back"
element to the team that it didn’t have before.
Speaking of an injury history, TE Dwayne Allen was once known
as Andrew Luck's favorite red-zone weapon. In large part because
Allen has missed 21 games over the past three seasons, it was
something of a surprise when the Colts decided to keep him over
Coby Fleener in free agency. One of the main reasons the Colts
decided to so was because the former third-round pick is considered
a complete tight end whereas Fleener is primarily an oversized
receiver. With the tight end position no longer a shared position
in Indy, Allen is anxious to disprove the notion he is injury-prone.
As a result, he took
up yoga twice a week in the offseason in hopes to maintain
or improve his flexibility.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Indianapolis entered last season with a
plethora of question marks at running back behind Gore last year
and got a bit lucky the ex-49er continued to hold off Father Time.
Gore is set up for another 250-carry (if not more) season in all
likelihood again this season at age 33, but injury and age-related
ineffectiveness have to be concerns for the Colts at this point.
Despite Gore's prowess at picking up the blitz, Ferguson should
probably be considered the favorite to handle passing-down work
if he is able to stay healthy and learn the protections quick
enough because he would bring a certain amount of explosiveness
to a backfield that otherwise lacks it. Expecting the UDFA to
carry the load should Gore miss significant time is another question
entirely, but I suspect he'll end up being the best handcuff out
of this backfield. Through four seasons, Allen has yet to play
in all 16 games, but we only need to go back to 2014 (eight touchdowns
in 12 games) to see why Allen is a potential TE1 if he could ever
stay healthy. While his time in the league suggests he is unlikely
to be a high-volume player - especially in an offense with so
many weapons at receiver - the departure of Fleener may result
in a drastic increase in targets. Allen is a longshot to finish
as a top-10 fantasy tight end in PPR formats for the simple fact
he is unlikely to crack the 70-catch mark (nine of the top 10
did so last year), but the 58-510-8 receiving line Richard Rodgers
posted last year with Green Bay - to finish as the 11th-best fantasy
tight end - seems entirely within reach. Allen could very well
be a steal for owners who are able to select him as a TE2.
Jacksonville
It's not a NFL offseason if TE Julius Thomas isn't impressing
somebody in non-padded practices. It's also not a NFL season unless
he either enters it injured or gets hurt at some point. The ex-Bronco
is going to try for a sixth time to put together a full campaign
for the first time in his career. To his credit, there is no question
he's trying to rebuild what was a strong connection last summer
before a broken bone in his hand during the first preseason game
cost him the first four games of the regular season. Thomas and
QB Blake Bortles have met
multiple times this spring in an effort to rekindle the chemistry
they felt during 2015 training camp, and it appears that is exactly
what is happening. “He’s had really good OTAs. It’s not only the
things that we’re seeing on the field, it’s off the field – the
extra meeting time that he and Blake are spending,” HC Gus Bradley
told The Florida Times-Union. "He’s been unbelievable. He’s
obviously a freak athlete and he’s continued to prove that and
make plays. He never drops a ball. He’s got unbelievable hands.
He’s continued to work on routes and we’re fine-tuning the stuff
he does that he really likes,” Bortles told The Times-Union,"
Bortles told ESPN.
RB T.J. Yeldon is saying all the right things about the team's
addition of free agent Chris Ivory this offseason, telling the
Times-Union, “I felt like it was a good signing to help us out
and get a 1-2 punch going on. It will help us stay fresh just
like at Alabama with me and Eddie (Lacy)." The actions of
the second-year back suggests he's going to treat this as a competition
rather than sharing a job, however. Yeldon spent the offseason
working with strength and conditioning coach Scott Cochran at
his alma mater of Alabama to turn the 225 pounds he was carrying
last year into a "better
225", with a goal of dropping five more pounds before
camp. While the financial investment Jacksonville made in Ivory
can be questioned, the Jags needed to look no further than the
following numbers to know bringing in another solid runner was
a priority: In the 12 games Yeldon played last year, Jacksonville
averaged 100.6 rushing yards and went 5-7. In the four contests
he missed, they averaged 66.3 rushing yards to go along with a
0-4 record.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: There is a good chance I could do a preseason
piece similar to this one every season for Thomas and just remove
the year and maybe a few choice words. (I'm only somewhat kidding.)
The former Portland State basketball player's upside makes him
a bargain at his current 9.01 ADP, but the injury risk he brings
to the table means owners need to spend another pick on the position
shortly after nabbing Thomas in order to protect themselves. I
already discussed how much I disapprove of Jacksonville's signing
of Ivory (7.08 ADP) for various reasons last week despite the
fact their styles complement each other. Given Yeldon (8.03) and
his familiarity with the offense, I find it hard to believe he
won't see more overall touches. Given Ivory's injury history and
Yeldon's proficiency in the passing game, I find it equally hard
to believe the latter won't eventually end up as the better fantasy
property, something that is not being reflected in their current
ADPs. Yes, the fact Ivory should be the goal-line back should
count for something and the Jags should be a much-improved team
this season, but let's not forget their running backs accounted
for four total touchdowns last season. Do you want to bet on Jacksonville
tripling that production this season? I don't.
Kansas
City
There is very little drama surrounding the Chiefs this offseason
on the offensive side of the ball. The one area that warrants
some kind of mention is the rushing attack, not only because of
HC Andy Reid's propensity to squeeze elite-level fantasy production
out of his running backs, but also because Jamaal Charles is trying
to make it back from his second career ACL surgery. Reid mentioned
Charles could participate in OTAs, but that did not happen.
Charles recently said he won't take part in football activities
until training camp "at
the earliest", but he has already taken part
in some individual drills. Stories about rehabbing running
backs are typically a dime a dozen, but what makes this one different
is this two-time All-Pro will turn 30 this season and his game
is built on his unique speed and lateral agility - not exactly
the two qualities that return quickly for most players coming
off an ACL injury. Further complicating matters was the emergence
of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware last season, both of whom
signed nearly identical three-year contract extensions this spring.
Is Reid willing to put the genie back in the bottle and let Charles
become the focal point of the offense again or is it time for
him to go from a featured back to a leader of a committee?
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Reid has presided over successful
RBBCs in Philadelphia, yet been unafraid to lean on a Brian Westbrook
or a Charles-type player to carry the load, so I don't we can
necessarily his history as our guide. The Eagles brought in LeSean
McCoy prior to Westbrook's final season in Philly (his age-30
season) and greatly scaled back his workload that year (2009),
although his concussion issues appeared to be the root cause for
that. Charles' ADP is 2.03 at the moment, which has to be based
on the belief he'll not only return to feature-back status (thereby
leaving scraps for West and Ware) but make an Adrian Peterson-like
recovery from his injury by Week 1 after sustaining the injury
11 months earlier. Perhaps owners are using his 2012 season as
their proof; after all, JC ran for 1,509 yards one season after
his first torn ACL. The case against that argument is that he
was 26 years old then. A reasonable assumption would be that Reid
will use West as Charles' breather back and Ware as a second breather
back and the short-yardage/goal-line hammer. As much as it pains
me, I cannot wrap my mind around the Texas native recapturing
his former elite fantasy back status with such significant hurdles
to overcome. I'll predict Charles to push for a top-10 finish
at his position again, but I'm skeptical he'll return second-round
value.
Miami
It's probably going to take a few years for WR Jarvis Landry to
shed the "possession receiver" tag. After all, that
is a title one receives when he averages 9.8 YPC on 195 career
receptions through two seasons. Maybe he really is nothing more
than a possession receiver, but 2016 should be the first time
he gets a chance to shed that label as new HC Adam Gase plans
to move him and WR DeVante Parker around. While most of Parker's
rookie season was spent recovering from injuries, Landry is set
to get his first real taste of being an outside receiver after
operating out of the slot 65.8 percent of the time last year and
79.5 percent as a rookie in 2014. With Parker eliciting
praise from QB Ryan Tannehill and rookie third-round pick
WR Leonte Carroo drawing comparisons to Anquan Boldin from teammates
and generally
impressing at OTAs, there doesn't figure to be a great need
for Landry to catch 111 passes again this season. The focus for
Landry, at least as far as Gase is concerned, is to create
more big plays with the opportunities he does have. Landry's
answer: perfecting
his footwork by learning from players such as Antonio Brown.
Playing
with tempo figures to be a big catchphrase with the Dolphins
under Gase, just as it was in Denver with Peyton Manning running
the show. (Injuries played a role in Gase running a league-average
number of plays in 2015 in his only season with Chicago.) This
news obviously bodes well for the Dolphins' suddenly deep receiver
corps and increases the likelihood that Tannehill surpasses his
career high of 590 pass attempts. Of course, having a balanced
offense with versatile backs helps a team to play fast. So far,
RB Jay Ajayi isn't helping his cause to be the team's featured
back, as some reports suggest he is "not
a natural pass catcher despite his success doing that at Boise
State" while others say route-running
is a bit of an issue.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The increase in tempo typically helps the
majority of players' overall fantasy numbers and this situation
should be no different. Landry may not go for 111 receptions he
did last season, but it seems like a pretty good bet he's going
to be the top option for Tannehill and finish with 80-90. Parker
is expected to take on the Demaryius Thomas role (X receiver)
in Gase's offense and, while he can't be expected to produce like
DT in 2016, I think his run from Week 12-17 is only the tip of
the iceberg of what he can do. After seeing what Gase has done
with an aging Manning and enigmatic Jay Cutler in recent years,
I don't think there's any question he can make Tannehill a top-10
fantasy quarterback, especially given Miami's receiving talent.
Ajayi is almost certainly going to be a question mark all summer,
but I suspect Gase isn't going to give him that long of a leash
to be the team's featured back. Rookie RB Kenyan Drake brings
too much explosiveness to the passing game out of the backfield
to merely stand on the sideline. If Ajayi doesn't master route-running
or show he is a "natural receiver" by the end of camp,
expect the Dolphins to employ a committee backfield, relegating
Ajayi to RB3 status.
New
England
The Patriots' cautious approach with TE Rob Gronkowski this offseason
(no, he's not being mothballed until Week 1 as previously thought)
has created an opportunity for TE Martellus Bennett to bond with
QB Tom Brady. In an era in which it is difficult to find one tight
end that can both block and catch at a high level, New England
has two of the best "dual-threat" players at the position
in the game today. It's fairly obvious Gronk will remain Brady's
favorite option, especially in the red zone, but for the first
time since the days of Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots have the
same yet different two-headed monster at tight end that drove
defenses crazy a few years ago. Given Bennett's ability to block
and catch, one could easily argue this pairing has the potential
to be even more devastating than Gronkowski-Hernandez was. Even
if that prediction falls a bit short, there is plenty of reason
to believe Bennett will play a
major role in this offense in 2016. As such, it also isn't
hard to imagine New England choosing to use two tight ends as
its base package this year.
Last year at this time, one of the most pressing questions Patriots'
camp was: How are they going to replace RB Shane Vereen? One year
later, we are left to wonder why Dion Lewis couldn't have graced
New England with his presence just a little bit earlier and how
three teams let him go before the Pats made him a star. The second
question part of that statement is easier to answer than the first
- he couldn't stay healthy, which was the case again in 2015.
Lewis is working
without a brace and is practicing (and reportedly cutting)
despite only being 7 1/2 months removed from his knee surgery,
which obviously bodes well for his availability for the regular-season
opener.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Gronk is going to be Gronk; assuming good
health, owners should be able to pencil him in for at least 70
catches, 1,100 yards and 10-plus touchdowns. The "Black Unicorn"
is obviously a different story; since he should see the field
more often - due to his blocking ability - than Hernandez ever
did, there is a very good chance he could push for 60-70 receptions
himself and score at a clip just off the pace that Gronkowski
does. Although I'm not going to predict it at the moment, it would
be far from a surprise if the Patriots had two tight ends finish
within the top 10 of their position. Owners would be wise to take
a wait-and-see approach with Lewis; if the lateral agility and
speed matches what we saw early last year, then treat him as a
low-end RB1 in PPR. If he appears hesitant in any way, then I'd
be leery of treating him as anything more than high-upside RB3
(knowing he could build trust in his knee and regain his explosiveness
at any point during the season). His current 4.03 ADP is a bit
rich for my blood until I actually get to see him play, but he
would be a huge bargain at that spot if he looks every bit like
the player he did pre-injury.
New
York Jets
Note to all owners, coaches and front office personnel: if your
team (perhaps one that has struggled to find a quality quarterback)
has a player who is either a fan favorite, team favorite or both,
that is unsigned due to a contract dispute, it may not be the
greatest idea to hold a Town
Hall meeting - even if it is an annual tradition - until that
situation is settled. There are plenty of ways to look at the
current standoff between the Jets and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. On
one hand, the market determines your worth in contract talks,
so when only one team is offering a contract, that offer is probably
your current worth on said market. Conversely, if said team has
suffered through mostly substandard quarterback for what seems
like several generations, playing hardball with one that gives
said team a temporary reprieve might be worth overpaying for in
the short term. On another hand, has Geno Smith really ever been
given a real chance to succeed? While Fitzpatrick had
his former coach in Buffalo calling plays for him last year (OC
Chan Gailey) and got to work with Eric Decker AND Brandon Marshall,
Smith had one year of Decker and zero time with Marshall. Never
mind the fact he was working with West Coast advocate Marty Mornhinweg
over his first two pro seasons after coming out of a pure spread
college offense. Without referencing Smith, ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski
may have provided the real reason the Jets feel good about their
negotiations with Fitz. "I went through every throw he made
last year ... If you look at the numbers, you say only 15 interceptions.
Well, it should have been 30. There were 15 that doinked off a
linebacker's hand or safety's hand that should've been intercepted.
So you have to look at that. So he was a little bit lucky,"
Jaworski
told NJ.com.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Jaws may be prone to exaggeration
(what highly paid analyst isn't nowadays?), but he's more right
than wrong here. (As a Fitzpatrick owner in one of my title-winning
teams last year, I saw about half of the potential picks he is
talking about.) Fitzpatrick has always been more of a gunslinger
than sound decision-maker, but quite often the most readily available
stats don't always tell the true story. Perhaps I'm one of the
last few Smith believers out there (granted, I don't believe
in him that much and think his natural talent far exceeds his
on-field decision-making ability), but it seems clear to me
he needs to get a real chance to prove himself with a real supporting
cast and not with the talent the team fielded on offense in 2013
and 2014. Look, if Smith can't complete at least 60 percent of
his passes and post something close to a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio in
a Gailey-led offense after a full training camp with Marshall,
Decker and Matt Forte doing the heavy lifting, then the Jets will
be doing the league a favor by proving he isn't a NFL starting
quarterback when his contract expires at the end of this season.
When in doubt about selecting a backup fantasy quarterback, give
me one that has above-average athleticism, a dynamic supporting
cast and a great play-caller. In the off-chance Fitz and the team
don't reach a deal before camp and the Jets don't add any real
competition in the form of a free agent, I'd feel comfortable
predicting top-20 quarterback fantasy numbers, which is pretty
much what I would say about Fitzpatrick. In the end, I'm just
like about everybody else - I expect Fitzpatrick back. Just don't
be surprised if his totals are more like 30 TDs and 20 INTs next
year, which is about what I would predict for Smith. Got it? Good.
Oakland The possible move to Las Vegas notwithstanding, it's hard
to remember the last time the Raiders entered a season with so
few distractions and such a good vibe. Among the fantasy positions,
the only "established" veterans that enter camp with
something to play for are RB Latavius Murray and TE Mychal Rivera,
and the latter of those two is debatable. Rivera enters the final
year of his contract almost certain to back up 2015 third-round
pick TE Clive Walford. As for Murray, GM Reggie McKenzie either
really loves the idea of having a good backup runner - something
Oakland lacked last year - or really dislikes Murray more than
we know. After the Raiders' brass spent most of the spring telling
the media how much they needed to get Murray some help and talked
about cutting back his workload, McKenzie quickly praised his
selection of fifth-round pick RB DeAndre Washington, calling him
a "complete
back" less than a week after drafting him.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Walford
obviously did himself no favors this offseason by sustaining a
"big gash"
as a result getting into an ATV accident, which caused him to
miss OTAs, but he is expected to be fine for camp. After coming
on late as a rookie and finishing with 28 catches, don't be surprised
if he hauls in 40 or 50 balls as a sophomore and emerges as a
top-20 player at his position. Washington is unlikely to overtake
Murray on the depth chart, but his owners probably shouldn't expect
the latter to rush for 1,000-plus yards or catch 41 passes again,
so he'll need more than the six touchdowns he scored last year
(which is a distinct possibility) in order to be anything more
than a low-end RB2. Washington is intriguing for multiple reasons:
On one hand, it sounds like Oakland wants to scale back Murray's
workload. On the other hand, there really is no telling how much
of a priority OC Bill Musgrave will make getting him involved
in the passing game. Musgrave is about as unimaginative of a play-caller
as the NFL has and the Raiders have plenty of receiving talent
at wideout and tight end, so how often will the Raiders manufacture
touches for their rookie? With his supposed involvement in the
passing game, Washington should be a decent standalone option
for owners in bye-week crunches and needs to be considered one
of the higher-upside fantasy handcuffs in the league.
Pittsburgh
With TE Ladarius Green - Mr. Offseason Buzz himself - not doing
anything noteworthy because of offseason ankle surgery and QB
Ben Roethlisberger doing little more this spring besides advocating
for Steelers to go
for two after every touchdown and dropping
15 pounds, we'll shift the focus to one other key important
player in the offense, RB Le'Veon Bell. Limited to six games last
year after suffering MCL and PCL tears, Bell understandably wants
to make a "full
recovery" before thinking about a new contract as he
enters his walk year. Multiple sources seem to agree a Week 1
return is a near-lock for Bell, who used a treatment called blood
flow restriction to aid his recovery from the injury. The fourth-year
back has already done
individual drills and something seemingly every recovering
star football player does after a serious injury - shoot for the
stars and set their sights on breaking a record. In this case,
Bell is aiming for 2,097 rushing yards - the same number Adrian
Peterson hit in 2012 less than a year after tearing his ACL.
The great thing about the offseason is that even receivers with
one career regular-season catch can generate a ton of hype. Most
of the time, that player crawls right back into the same second-
or third-string role he had the previous season. Don't expect
that to be the case, however, for Sammie Coates, who had a "tremendous
offseason" and "earned
the coaches' trust" after intensifying his training and
dropping some weight. His awakening is good news for the Steelers
as they face a full year without the suspended Martavis Bryant.
It seems a foregone conclusion that Coates will be at worst the
No. 3 receiver in this offense, and possibly the No. 2 depending
on how Markus Wheaton responds to his big opportunity. After all,
Wheaton's run from Weeks 12-17 (28 catches, 476 yards and four
touchdowns) makes him the slight favorite over the immensely talented
Coates heading into training camp. Wheaton attributes his second-half
emergence to getting "on
the same page" with Roethlisberger and "learning
how to just be who I need to be when it comes to what Ben wants
me to be".
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: There's not much
I can say that hasn't already been said for Bell, who is the best
all-purpose back in the league when healthy. Reaching 2,100 rushing
yards individually in an offense that possesses the league's best
receiver is a pipe dream, so Bell should be happy with just making
it through a full season first. He is a near-lock for 100-plus
total yards every time he hits the field, but it is not unthinkable
for him to average 100 yards rushing this season with Antonio
Brown, Green, Coates and Wheaton all capable of going deep. If
he is cleared for Week 1 action early enough, there's no reason
to let him slide past the first five picks in any fantasy draft.
While he has suffered major knee injuries each the last two seasons,
it is not as if he is injury-prone or anything of the like - almost
every running back would have been injured on those same plays.
Coates is going to be a popular breakout candidate this season
and for good reason. While he doesn't possess the same 6-5 frame
Bryant does, Coates is another big freaky athlete with the ability
to make plays downfield. Some have blamed Wheaton's disappointing
first 2 1/2 seasons on the fact he was "forced" to play
in the slot as opposed to the outside due to the presence of Bryant.
The numbers don't exactly bear that out, however, as he ran 186
of his 265 routes inside the hashes from Weeks 12-17. It should
come as no surprise if Wheaton and Coates end up canceling each
other out a bit on a weekly basis, but both should be no worse
than WR4 options in most 12-team leagues.
San
Diego
At this time last year, fantasy owners would have probably bet
good money that RB Melvin Gordon would either lead all rookies
in rushing or, at the very least, finish second. Short of that,
the No. 15 overall pick would turn his impressive acceleration
and 4.52 speed into one big play after another. Well, 641 rushing
yards, a 3.5 YPC, zero touchdowns and one microfracture knee surgery
later, Gordon is already facing questions about whether or not
he is just another disappointing back from the University of Wisconsin.
Why did Gordon struggle so much while draft classmate Todd Gurley
thrived behind a similar lackluster offensive line and with no
threat to speak of in the passing game? Some have blamed former
OC Frank Reich's shotgun-heavy approach, but Gordon averaged 4.2
YPC on 79 carries out of the formation. How about one-back groupings?
3.45 PC on 177 carries. Two-back? Seven carries. Seven. Let that sink in for a second. Gordon ran out of shotgun 31 times
and out of two-back sets 200 times in his final college season
(343 carries). While formation can't be the only explanation for
his forgettable rookie campaign, one need only look at the carnage
San Diego experienced on the offensive line to figure out another
reason why he was doomed to fail. The Chargers appear committed
to more two-back sets after selecting Gordon's college teammate,
FB Derek Watt, in the sixth round and bringing back former OC
Ken Whisenhunt to run the offense again. The 2014 Heisman Trophy
runner-up has also impressed HC Mike McCoy with his commitment
to the offseason program and rehab; McCoy has said publicly that
he is "very pleased with where (Gordon) is at".
After four years of "preserving" Ladarius Green, the
Chargers had little choice but to let him go as a free agent.
In his place, San Diego selected Arkansas TE Hunter Henry in the
second round in April. Perhaps in a quest not waste some of the
best years of another fine young talent while waiting for TE Antonio
Gates to retire, McCoy has already said "for going to push
certain guys along a little faster than others" and that
"(Henry)
will be one of those guys". While cautioning that Henry
has a ways to go before he's "ready", Whisenhunt has
made it known he believes his new toy is one of the few tight
ends who has come out of the draft over the past few years that
can catch and block. So, does it mean the kid will play more right
away more than Green ever did? Well, it should be noted San Diego
had at least three receivers on the field in 711 of 1,100 offensive
plays last season, so it might be a stretch to say Henry is going
to see a lot of action unless Whisenhunt chooses to ignore the
fact his top three receivers (Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin and
Steve Johnson) gives Philip Rivers his best trio of wideouts since
he became the full-time starter in 2006. San Diego isn't going
to sit RB Danny Woodhead or Gates on passing downs either, meaning
Henry will probably spend most of his rookie season playing on
early downs until one of the aforementioned five Chargers is forced
to miss time.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: While Woodhead is
a serious drain on Gordon's fantasy ceiling, there is no back
on the roster that should push the second-year back for playing
time on early downs. It is also noteworthy that Gordon wasn't
exactly a stiff in the passing game last year despite his otherwise
disappointing season with 33 receptions, although his 5.8 YPC
is poor for a back with his big-play ability. The 23-year-old's
current ADP is 6.11, which seems about right considering he might
lose out to Woodhead at the goal line again. Rookie tight ends
usually don't matter much in fantasy, and I doubt Henry is going
to buck that trend. Like Green, he should play a valuable role
within the offense should Gates get hurt, but serving as a handcuff
to a future Hall of Famer isn't the most desirable road for a
player to take in order to achieve some degree of consistency
in fantasy. It wouldn't be surprising if Henry finishes somewhere
in the 30-catch range, thereby leaving him off the radar in most
leagues.
Tennessee
Very little is likely to get figured out in the backfield before
training camp, so the intrigue that can get dissected surrounding
the Titans figures to center on the wide receivers. (And there
seems to be plenty of that.) Rookie fifth-rounder Tajae Sharpe
is likely to open
camp as a starter opposite free-agent addition Rishard Matthews,
meaning Dorial Green-Beckham and, to a lesser extent, Justin Hunter
have some work to do. Sharpe led FBS with 111 catches last season
while attending UMass but enters the league at 6-2 and 194 pounds
- a full three inches shorter and 43 pounds lighter than DGB.
Shortly after proclaiming Sharpe was "the most consistent
out of all of our wide receivers", HC Mike Mularkey strongly
hinted he hopes Green-Beckham and Hunter "take
it personally" that Sharpe has passed them on the depth
chart "for now". New WR coach Bob Bratkowski has noted
DGB is trending in the right direction and started to show some
consistency but pointed to his "gap
year" (the season after Green-Beckham was thrown out
of school at Missouri and practiced - but did not play - with
Oklahoma) as a major reason why DGB remains a project.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's
been busy on the news front regarding Titans' receivers, as new
OC Terry Robiskie reportedly told Kendall Wright was also told
he will no longer be allowed to "freelance" on routes.
(It's hard to put the "exotic" into "exotic smashmouth"
if you can't freelance, right?) For what it is worth, I get the
sense the current regime has very little desire to utilize Wright,
so I imagine he'll play the role of a good soldier again this
year and be happy to leave Tennessee as quickly as possible at
the end of the season when his contract expires. It would be an
upset of near-epic proportions if this coaching staff doesn't
eventually turn to DGB over Sharpe at some point during the preseason.
The sad part is that Mularkey and Robiskie feel the need to send
a message to Green-Beckham in the first place. Given the current
state of affairs, Matthews probably should be considered to be
the favorite to lead all Titans' receivers, although TE Delanie
Walker figures to remain QB Marcus Mariota's go-to guy. Regardless
of how the depth chart shakes out in Tennessee, it is going to
be difficult for any one player to break away from the crowd and
establish himself as an every-week fantasy WR3 due to lack of
volume and the number of quality (and apparently, flawed) receivers
on this team.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.