Marshall's effect on the Giants offense
will be one of the more interesting fantasy storylines of
The month of May is an interesting time in the fantasy football
community, as writers and analysts no longer need to prognosticate
which college player will land on what team now that the NFL draft
in the books. With fantasy football players coming out of hibernation
in search of new articles and rankings, fantasy websites, including
the one you are reading right now, are motivated to provide new
rankings, articles, and draft kits.
But the problem is that all of us in the fantasy community are
working with metaphorical blinders right now, as there is no discernible
information in the early summer months that gives us any real
intel that can be used to make a reasonable assumption on how
players will perform this year. Especially fresh face rookies
yet to play a down in the NFL, or veterans on new teams looking
to resurrect their careers.
Despite this fact, we all love to read articles predicting the
next big thing or the player who will jump the proverbial tier
and outperform their current ADP (keep in mind ADP in May is like
a Trump view on reality; it is constantly changing). Heck, I too
love to scour the internet looking for articles that may give
me a little bit of an edge on my competition when I draft in August.
I thought I would throw my hat in the ring of the echo chamber
nonsense (an ode to Chris
Harris) that is Mid-May speculation with the narrative that
Marshall is the most interesting fantasy football player in
2017. Marshall is fascinating this season not only for the fantasy
points he may or may not produce, but also for the way he will
Beckham Jr., Eli
Shepard, and whoever emerges as the top running back option
in what could be a high-powered offense in New York.
Entering his age 33 season, Marshall has been one of the most
productive real life and fantasy football wide receivers since
joining the league as a fourth-round pick of the Broncos in 2006.
With eight 1000-yard seasons, six in which he caught over 100
balls, and 82 touchdown receptions in 151 games, Marshall has
quietly put together a hall-of-fame worthy resume while playing
on teams with average to below average quarterbacks.
As much as I do not think Eli Manning is an elite quarterback
(no, I do not want to rehash that tired discussion), I believe
it is clear that Marshall has yet to play with a quarterback as
good as Manning or in an offense as prolific as the Giants. From
a fantasy perspective, it is not always advantageous to be a good
player on a good offense, if you are surrounded by other talented
skill position players that will limit your ability to get the
required targets to be fantasy relevant.
In his 10 NFL seasons, not counting his rookie season, Marshall
has never received less than 100 targets, including four injury
and suspension-filled years. Ten seasons of triple-digit targets
is a recipe for fantasy gold and a solid NFL career for any WR,
especially one that is 6’4” with Marshall’s
ball skills and ability to dominate in the red zone.
With targets, especially those in the red zone, being key for
Marshall and any veteran wide receiver looking to make an impact
on a new team, where will the 100-plus targets for Marshall come
from on the Giants? Beckham will certainly get his volume, but
will he see a decrease from the 169 targets he garnered in 2016?
Will the Giants stunt the growth of second-year wide receiver
by taking targets away from Sheppard in favor of Marshall, and
what about the addition of 2017 first round draft pick Evan Engram?
Predicting the allocation of target share is much easier when
there is a dearth of targets from players vacating their spots
in an offense, like with Washington and the loss of Pierre Garcon
and DeSean Jackson.
But in the case of New York, where a veteran WR accustomed to
100 targets a season joins an already potent offense, there is
no certainty how things will pan out. It is anyone’s guess
how things will go with the Giants, and if any fantasy football
analyst or writer claims to have a clear idea of how Marshall
will affect the Giants in 2017, they are more than likely mistaken
or flat out lying.
There is a plausible narrative that Marshall will open the door
for OBJ to have his most dominant season to date, as opposing
defenses will no longer be able to double and triple team Beckham
in coverage. Conversely, it is not out of the realm of possibility
that Marshall and Manning develop instant chemistry and the two
hook up for double-digit targets and 1000 yards, thus marginalizing
Beckham Jr.’s fantasy value and removing OBJ from the top
tier of players.
On one hand it would not surprise me to see Marshall become disgruntled
as a result of not getting targeted much by Manning, leading to
dissension in the Giants offense and an eventual release of Marshall
by general manager Jerry Reese. It is also possible that Marshall’s
success could frustrate Beckham Jr. to the point where his production
is limited by a poor attitude on and off the field.
Because there are so many possible outcomes, and the fact that
all of the narratives directly affect a top-six consensus pick,
Marshall joining the Giants is the most interesting story of the
2017 fantasy football season.
Now it begs the question, do I recommend using a pick Brandon
Marshall at his current ADP of 67 overall and the 29th wide
receiver? When considering the wide spectrum of outcomes, ranging
from having no fantasy relevance due to getting released as a
disgruntled player to posting No. 1 wide receiver numbers in the
event ODB gets hurt, his current ADP is worth the risk of the
former narrative playing out.
The middle ground and most likely stat production one can anticipate
is 75 catches for 825 yards and seven touchdowns, which would
have made him the No. 19 wide receiver in standard leagues this
year. Assuming you can get him as the 29th WR wide receiver off
the board, he already has built-in value at his current ADP. When
you add in the high end of the spectrum as a low-end WR-1, Marshall
is well worth the risk of him not panning out.
I plan on rolling the dice on Marshall, as the risk of him not
panning out is worth the possibility of him providing double digit
touchdowns. But what the heck do I know? It is May, and we are
all just speculating without any real information.