The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 122
Breakout Wide Receivers: A Profile
6/19/08

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

Determining breakout candidates at WR is so important for a fantasy owner because the turnover for starting quality positions from year to year is too high to ignore. From 2005-2007 an average of 15 new players made the top 36 receivers in each of those seasons and only 40% of the receivers had consecutive seasons in the top-12. Any information that can help you identify strong candidates for starting quality spots can make a difference.

Here are the performance profile criteria for breakout receiver candidates:

• 85% of the sampled breakout receivers achieved this feat between years 2-5 of their NFL career.
  
• 81% had at least 41 receptions
  
• 78% had at least 2 touchdowns
  
• 71% had at least 400 receiving yards.
  
• An average of five receivers per year attains breakout status.
  

Overall, flip a coin —7/14—which was about the same rate as last year. But the players who didn’t meet the statistical profile that I added from my own subjective analysis actually amounted to a 60% success rate. Go figure. Still, every year this approach is identifying between three and six starting quality receivers who are mid-to-late round picks that will outplay higher valued receivers by season’s end.

One thing the receivers on this list who made the top 20 have in common is two of three conditions: excellent quarterback play, a fantasy starter as a complementary receiver, and/or a fantasy starter at running back.

• Braylon Edwards—Derek Anderson (5); Kellen Winslow (4); and Jamal Lewis (6)
  
• Greg Jennings—Brett Favre (8); Donald Driver (30); and Ryan Grant (17)
  
• Kevin Curtis—Donovan McNabb (14); Reggie Brown (38); and Brian Westbrook (2)*
  
• Santonio Holmes—Ben Roethlisberger (6); Hines Ward (31); and Willie Parker (16)
  
• Wes Welker *—Tom Brady (1); Randy Moss (1); Laurence Maroney (25)
  

The first knockout factor is likelihood of starting in 2008. Kevin Walter filled in admirably after rookie Jacoby Jones was lost to injury, but it’s easy to imagine Jones coming back and taking the job outright. At best, Walter will share time as the #2 WR as long as Jones remains healthy.

Roydell Williams is coming off an ankle injury after gaining the trust of Vince Young, but he’ll be fighting for a starting job against the elite physical talent but raw pass catching skills of Paul Williams and the elite pass catching but (historically) poorly conditioned Mike Williams. Throw in veteran Justin McCareins and it’s going to be too close to call.

Bobby Wade will be competing with Sidney Rice and the second-year receiver from USC just missed this list.

Michael Jenkins is currently behind second-year receiver Laurent Robinson on the depth chart. If Brian Finneran returns to form and rookie Harry Douglas is a sneaky good player who will develop quickly. So Atlanta is another cloudy situation.

James Jones is a talent, but so are Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

Shaun McDonald is a player I wiped off the list before we even started because it’s unlikely he beats out Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson.

Arnaz Battle seems like a good candidate, but the addition of Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce tempers my enthusiasm. I also believe second-year player, Jason Hill has more upside than any of the players I just mentioned. Battle, a former QB who thrives on his athleticism still falls behind the curve on route running also.

Another former QB-turned-WR is Patrick Crayton. I actually like Crayton’s skill more than Battle and he certainly has the top-notch QB-RB-WR combo with Romo-Barber-Owens in the fold, but throw in Jason Witten and I don’t see how the ball can get spread around with enough frequency for Crayton to statistically reach the next level.

Jerricho Cotchery continues to straddle the edge between quality starter and breakout receiver, but his problems remain the same: he needs a more dynamic quarterback and he’s more of a Keenan McCardell to Laveranues Coles’ Jimmy Smith. I said last year that I couldn’t see him catching more than 82 passes and he hit that ceiling to that exact number. He’s a good pick for your team as a #3 WR, but don’t expect anything more.

That narrows the field to nine receivers, plus four players I added based on their talent, standing on the depth chart, and team situation. I believe these 13 receivers have a strong chance of breaking into the top 36 in 2008.

On The List, But Will Not Catch Fire (Projected top 36-48) — Receivers with the skills to break out, but a lot has to go right that hasn’t yet.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego: Definitely a physical talent and the duo of Tomlinson and Gates make Jackson an enticing breakout candidate. He also came to life in the playoffs, but this was the second time in a season Jackson faced the Titans, Colts, and Patriots. Then again he saw the AFC West twice a year and his stats weren’t significantly better in the second game. What concerns me is Phillip River’s injury and Chris Chambers as the current #1 receiver. I just don’t see enough passes coming Jackson’s way in 2008 unless Tomlinson or Gates don’t recover sufficiently from their 2007 injuries. I think he fits in well as a projected “first off the bench” player in a 3 or 4 receiver lineup.

Ronald Curry, Oakland: Curry and Justin Gage have very similar numbers. The difference to me is JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young. Russell can become a good quarterback, but I don’t believe he’s going to pull a Daunte Culpepper and become a fantasy stud in year two after virtually no time on the field in year one. The most encourage thing about Curry is he remained healthy. He had six games in 2007 that a fantasy owner would be satisfied from a starting option. I just don’t see him building on that total this year. They have some players with explosive potential: Darren McFadden, Javon Walker, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush, but it’s still going to be up to Russell and I think Curry could up his number of quality performances to 8 games. That’s enough to consider Curry decent depth, but not an every week starter.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota: Rice is this year’s ever popular, “receiver that intrigues fantasy owners,” and for good reasons. He too had a Second Half Wonder stretch run in 2007 and he possesses the athleticism to be a primary receiver along the lines of a Javon Walker at his best. The Vikings ground game certain gives Rice and the Vikings receiving corps opportunities to excel. But the theme of the developing quarterback continues with Rice. Tarvaris Jackson was a Second Half Wonder at QB, and the addition of Bernard Berrian makes it very reasonable that Minnesota can make the jump to becoming a balanced offense with multiple fantasy starters in the fold. Jackson only saw 25 attempts five times last year. Vince Young, who wasn’t that much better than Jackson in a disappointing year, saw 25 attempts seven times. Kurt Warner had 11 games with 25 attempts. Why 25 attempts? Because when you look at the top five signal callers last year each only had a handful of games with less than 25 attempts: Tom Brady (0); Tony Romo (2); Peyton Manning (2); Drew Brees (1); Derek Anderson (2). You can’t have multiple receivers breaking out on one team if the quarterback isn’t dropping back to throw at least 25 times a game. I believe Berrian will be the primary target in the passing game when they aren’t running All Day.

Ernest Wilford, Miami: Initial reports out of Dolphins camp are that Wilford is easily the best receiver on the team. That doesn’t mean they don’t reserve high hopes for Tedd Ginn, Jr., but the guy who will move the chains in the passing game is most likely Wilford. The Virginia Tech alum has decent build up speed, but he’s like a poor man’s version of Marques Colston. What’s intriguing is the connection between Bill Parcells and Sean Payton. And it is possible they see Wilford as this type of player, too. I’m an unabashed fan of John Beck. He took a lot of heat in the offseason, but I believe he’ll be one of the most improved players in the NFL in 2008. I expect Wilford to exceed his 2005 season totals of 41 receptions, 681 yards, and 7 scores. I think 60 catches, 800 yards, and 5 scores is reasonable.

Quality Starters, But Don’t Go Overboard (Projected top 25-36) — Good situation, but one prominent factor holds them back.

Nate Burleson could become Hasselbeck's favorite target in'08.

Nate Burleson, Seattle: Maybe it’s just me, but I snoozed on the fact that Burleson was pretty strong from weeks 13-17 last year. He had four games over 10 points. At the same time, all but one of his decent games was against some weaker defensive units: Cincinnati, Arizona (twice), New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Yet Deion Branch has struggled to stay healthy in Seattle and Bobby Engram is in the unenviable position of trying to get more money at a point in his career where most NFL types believe he’s too close to the end. The Auburn Alumni Association of Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor have some promise, but that does give Burleson a chance to be the Seahawks starter and a fantasy starter. With a ground game that has struggled recently, I believe even with the addition of Julius Jones that Mike Holmgren will lean on Matt Hasselbeck more than ever. Burleson is a solid kick return specialist, so he can run after the catch. After a 1006-yard, 9-TD season in 2003 (he technically broke out already), he has not returned to prominence as expected. Since his career has an up and down track record and he’s technically the third receiver on the Seattle depth chart, I’m at best cautiously optimistic.

Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis: Gonzalez had three big games in the regular season and as solid outing in the divisional playoff versus the Chargers. The popular notion is that the second-year receiver is more suited for the slot, but Marvin Harrison is beginning to worry me. His 247-yard 2007 in five games clearly shows the knee injury was bothering him all year. There hasn’t been much news about Harrison’s recovery and at age 35, knees are difficult body parts to bounce back from that kind of trauma. If Harrison is ready to go, then I would draft Gonzalez later than most of the receivers I already mentioned, but if there are question marks the Buckeye creeps up the list.

Reggie Brown, Eagles: If you can toss aide any hope that Reggie Brown will turn into a primary receiver for the Eagles, he’s a player fantasy owners should feel alright with as a low-end starter. Let those owners with a penchant for rookies get excited about DeSean Jackson. The receiving corps will continue to be about Kevin Curtis, Brown, and Jason Avant. Jackson will get his chances, but the two receivers to have in Philly are #1 Westbrook and #1A Curtis. Brown isn’t exciting, but you can do a lot worse than 800 yards and 6-8 scores. That’s what I anticipate if Mr. Glass (what our FFToday Board Members are beginning to call him) can stay healthy for at least 14 games.

Justin Gage, Tennessee: Gage was featured as a Second Half Wonder and it’s conceivable he could average a full point to two points higher per game in 2008, because he only scored twice last year. I believe the return of Mike Heimerdinger will benefit the red zone offense. Gage has the physical stature and athleticism to be a strong target in this area and with a full season of work with Vince Young behind him, I believe he should triple is touchdown total from 2007. If he maintains the same yardage total and scores six times, he’s at 139 fantasy points. Considering the fact that Justin McCariens is well-known for looking good in practice then dropping balls in games, I think Gage will be the most reliable guy in Tennessee. I don’t see him breaking the top 15, but with a more diversified offense that includes TE Alge Crumpler and rookie Chris Johnson, Gage could break the top 20 if everything clicks. It should go well enough in Tennessee that Gage is a solid #3 WR for most fantasy rosters.

Bryant Johnson, San Francisco: I can envision Johnson as a quality starter now that he’s in Mike Martz’s offense and the favorite to be the 49ers #2 receiver. But this is an interesting depth chart in San Francisco that makes this situation far from solidified. Arnaz Battle is a talent who might be able to put it all together due to the strides he’s made thus far. I believe Isaac Bruce has another 1000-yard season in him. Ashley Lelie has the talent, but he has underachieved. And Jason Hill could be better than all of them soon enough. Still this amounts to a lot of ifs—Johnson is the best combination of here and now talent and remaining upside in this corps. I think a Mike Furrey-esque/Shaun McDonald-type season is within reasonable expectations (80-90 catches, 1000-yards, 5-6 scores). The problem is who will be throwing him the ball? Considering that none of these players I listed as quality starters will be valued this way on draft day, you should be able to snag Bryant as your 4th receiver off the board in many leagues.

Teasing Moments of Excellence (Projected top 16-24) — Flashes of dominance are there, but wire-to-wire production hasn’t happened yet.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota: His production continues to improve with each passing year and he should benefit from the Vikings ground game and offensive line. Rex Grossman jokes aside, the Bears hope for the future had moments of excellence. If Tarvaris Jackson can demonstrate better downfield accuracy and decision making, Berrian could be in for a 1200-yard season and double digit scores. Jackson did have three 60-yard touchdown passes last year and that’s Berrian’s strength. I just can’t bring myself to pick him as an elite receiver. I think most value conscious owners who want Berrian will have to accept the fact he’ll be a low end #2 WR on most draft boards due to the potential hype.

Reggie Williams, Jacksonville: I picked the wrong Jaguar last year. Although Williams had 15 fewer receptions and only 14 more yards than he did in 2006, his 10 scores valued him into the conscious of most fantasy owners in 2007. Now that they found a quarterback in David Garrard, I see Jacksonville continuing with what worked for them. One of those successes was Williams who should see more opportunities with Jerry Porter opposite him. As long as Porter plays disciplined football—a fair “if” for the former Raider—then Williams could be in for a huge year. The problem for me is that Williams is not a multi-dimensional receiving threat. He’s a solid possession receiver with red zone skills. He’s not a burner, although he can get yardage after the catch. I believe the receiver with the most upside is second-year player Mike Walker, who is healthy. If he has the type of preseason he did in last year’s camp, there’s a chance he’ll be cutting into Porter and/or William’s time. There’s enough promise on this Jags depth chart that I believe Williams will be good, but not great.

Breakouts Du Jour (Top 15) — Multi-dimensional threats with enough surrounding talent to join the upper echelon.

Waldman: "Calvin Johnson is a 1000-yard 8 score player, easy."

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Bowe was not only productive, but he had some clutch moments as a rookie with pedestrian QB production and a leaky ground game. With Larry Johnson returning, Tony Gonzalez still pumping out excellent seasons, and Brodie Croyle making strides, I think Bowe is in for a 80-catch, 1100-yard, and 8-score season. He’s not as freakishly gifted as Calvin Johnson, but he faces easier defenses twice a year and with the exception of T.O. might already be the most powerful runner after the catch in the league. What impressed me was his ability to get deep. He had two scores over 30 yards in length. I’m also a fan of Devard Darling, who showed a little something with the Ravens down the stretch. Darling has the skills to gain 600-800 yards and get deep. Don’t mistake the Chiefs for an offensive juggernaut this year, but they will be better and Bowe will lead the way.