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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Daily Dose: Week 2
Thursday Games and the Short Week Effect
9/11/14


Every week with the exception of week 17 there will be Thursday games. While you can choose whether or not you want to play those early games, this article will be out in time to help you make that decision with updates to follow when needed. It is worth noting that there tends to be a short week effect with these Thursday games. While the sample size is fairly small, comparing midweek games to weekend games, the statistics show that scoring is lower for the Thursday contests. The shorter preparation time for teams appears to result in a more vanilla game plan.

One thing I have always disliked about the Thursday night games is it might force you into a decision on what to do on the weekends based on who is available. For instance, if you have a player listed as questionable on Sunday, you might have to play someone on a Thursday game rather than chance the zero on Sunday. We saw that play out last week as Andre Ellington (foot) and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) we’re both very questionable to play. When setting your daily lineups you can avoid those questionable players but it leaves you with fewer options including possibly a value added backup. Depending on the contest you enter or the rules at that site, once the Thursday night game starts, you might not be able to change your line-up (FanDuel). Usually, I am not a fan of using players in the Thursday game, but I certainly will get in the contests that allow those players as long as I can use the late swap feature (DraftKings). This way, my opponents can use the players in the vanilla game that they get to watch on Thursday night, and I can take the better value on the weekends.

Now that you know how I approach the Thursday night games, let’s check out some of the players I am considering for my line-ups. First let’s look at the projected scores based on the betting lines.

  • Pittsburgh 23.5 at Baltimore 21
  • Detroit 20.25 at Carolina 23.25
  • Miami 22 at Buffalo 21
  • Jacksonville 18.75 at Washington 24.75
  • Dallas 23 at Tennessee 26.5
  • Arizona 22.75 at NY Giants 20.25
  • New England 26 at Minnesota 23
  • New Orleans 27 at Cleveland 20.5
  • Atlanta 21.75 at Cincinnati 26.75
  • St. Louis 15.5 at Tampa Bay 21.5
  • Seattle 25.25 at San Diego 19.25
  • Houston 21.25 at Oakland 18.25
  • NY Jets 19 at Green Bay 27
  • Kansas City 19.5 at Denver 32.5
  • Chicago 20.75 at San Francisco 27.75
  • Philadelphia 25.25 at Indianapolis 28.25

In your cash games (50-50’s and heads-up) I would encourage you to get at least one or two Broncos in your line-up. This week the Philadelphia and Indianapolis game looks to have plenty of scoring in it as well. Other teams to generally target include New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco.

Prices listed are FanDuel and DraftKings in that order.

Aaron Rodgers

It's hard to pass on Aaron Rodgers' value this week.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, GB ($9,100/$7,900) – After a tough matchup last week Rodgers is back home against the Jets. His price is down to the forth-highest quarterback at FanDuel and the seventh highest at DraftKings. It is hard to pass on that value.

Tom Brady, NE ($8,500/$7,000) – Belichick and company are going to want to make a statement after last weeks loss. Minnesota’s defensive stats look better than they should after facing St. Louis last week.

Cam Newton, CAR ($8,600/$7,700) – This is a bit of a contrarian play as many people will not choose him coming back from injury. Cam is a good GPP option this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN ($7,800/$7,500) – Dalton has better splits at home and goes against Atlanta’s poor defense.

Alex Smith, KC ($6,700/$6,300) – Kansas City should be behind in this game leaving Smith with a lot of garbage time attempts.

Running Backs

There are a few questionable situations this week based on the injury status of some players. I recommend staying away from the Baltimore (Thursday game) and Cleveland backfield in cash games this week. There can be good value in some of these low-priced options but I will avoid them. If I was forced to pick, I would go with Bernard Pierce in Baltimore and Terrance West in Cleveland.

The stud backs were largely disappointing last week. I think the script gets flipped this week and I would pay up for one of them. I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top four (McCoy, Lynch, Charles, Peterson).

Arian Foster, HOU ($8,300/$7,000) – It will probably be tough to get Foster in your line-up this week if you already have one of the big guns. I like Foster against Oakland and this could be a good GPP play.

Giovani Bernard, CIN ($7,800/$6,300) – He was on the field on 86% of the offensive plays last week to the popular Jeremy Hill’s 15%. I see more of the same this week.

Doug Martin, TB ($7,400/$5,100) – CHECK INJURY STATUS. I really like Martin’s upside this week and his lower price at DraftKings. If Martin is out I will plug Bobby Rainey ($5,000/$4,800) in there instead.

Wide Recievers

Randall Cobb, GB ($7,600/$6,400) – Cobb has good value this week and I will look to pair him up with Rodgers.

Pierre Garcon, WAS ($6,900/$6,400) – Garcon is a target monster and I like him this week versus Jacksonville

Reggie Wayne, IND ($6,200/$5,300) – Wayne had 13 targets last week and has an ideal matchup against the Eagles.

Robert Woods, BUF ($5,200/$3,500) – He was on the field for 91% of the offensive snaps last week and led the team with 4 receptions. I like his upside potential in GPPs.

Nate Washington, TEN ($5,100/$3,400) – Justin Hunter is going to be the popular pick this week against Dallas. I will take the contrarian play and go with Washington instead.

Tight Ends

This week I will be paying up for this position where I can and going with Jimmy Graham ($8,000/$7,000) or Julius Thomas ($8,100/$7,100). I do like some of the value options this week though too.

Jason Witten, DAL ($6,300/$3,800) – Witten is a better value at DraftKings than FanDuel. Tennessee was the ninth worst team against tight ends last year and I look for Witten to bounce back.

Larry Donnell, NYG ($4,500/$3,000) – The Giants offense is garbage, but Donnell is a minimum salaried guy going up against the 2013 worst defense against tight ends.

Jermaine Gresham, CIN ($4,500/$3,000) – With Eifert out on the short term IR, I like Gresham to step up.

Defenses

At defense this week (and most weeks for that matter) I am going to fade the weak offenses.

Arizona ($5,300/$3,300) versus N.Y.Giants
Tampa Bay ($4,900/$3,200) versus St. Louis

Be sure to check back this weekend for updates or added plays. Good luck!

Suggestions, comments? E-mail me.