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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 5/30/16
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |

Free agency has passed and the NFL Draft is in the rear view mirror as well, which means rosters - at least for fantasy purposes - are pretty much set.

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation, but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems unwise to look more than three years into the future any position (or at least put much weight into such a projection) simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2018 season. Furthermore, coaching staffs seem to change almost annually, further stirring up the pot. At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks.

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings before the start of the 2016 regular season. Players with an up arrow are those that moved up nine or more spots from my previous set of rankings. Likewise, a down arrow represents a drop of nine or more spots.

Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Cam Newton CAR 27
  2 Andrew Luck IND 27
  3 Aaron Rodgers GB 33
  4 Russell Wilson SEA 28
Tier 2
  5 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34
  6 Philip Rivers SD 35
  7 Blake Bortles JAC 25
  8 Derek Carr OAK 25
  9 Jameis Winston TB 23
  10 Marcus Mariota TEN 23
Tier 3
  11 Eli Manning NYG 36
  12 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28
  13 Drew Brees NO 38
  14 Tom Brady NE 39
  15 Carson Palmer ARI 37
  16 Kirk Cousins WAS 28
  17 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27
18 Brock Osweiler HOU 26
Tier 4
  19 Carson Wentz PHI 24
  20 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 24
  21 Andy Dalton CIN 29
  22 Matt Ryan ATL 31
  23 Paxton Lynch DEN 22
  24 Tony Romo DAL 36
25 Matthew Stafford DET 28
  26 Jared Goff LAR 22
Tier 5
  27 Joe Flacco BAL 32
  28 Colin Kaepernick SF 29
  29 Jay Cutler CHI 33
  30 Alex Smith KC 32
  31 Ryan Fitzpatrick FA 34
  32 Sam Bradford PHI 29
Tier 6
  33 Robert Griffin III CLE 26
  34 Cardale Jones BUF 24
  35 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 21
  36 AJ McCarron CIN 26
  37 Mike Glennon TB 27
  38 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 25
  39 Jeff Driskel SF 23
Tier 7
  40 Mark Sanchez DEN 30
  41 Chase Daniel PHI 30
  42 Dak Prescott DAL 23
  43 Brett Hundley GB 23
  44 Connor Cook OAK 23
  45 Jacoby Brissett NE 24
  46 Trevone Boykin SEA 23
  47 Brandon Allen JAC 24
  48 Cody Kessler CLE 23
  49 Blaine Gabbert SF 27
  50 Geno Smith NYJ 26
  Andrew Luck, IND: Buy everywhere you can; Colts should offer better protection this year and will rely on him as much as ever.

  Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: Injury history/loss of Martavis Bryant are among reasons to secure a quality fantasy backup for Big Ben.

  Philip Rivers, SD: Better injury luck up front and addition of Travis Benjamin could work wonders.

  Jameis Winston, TB: Leaner and meaner Winston could mean big things under new HC Dirk Koetter.

  Marcus Mariota, TEN: Titans' offseason suggests a heavy run emphasis, at least in the short term.

  Eli Manning, NYG: Addition of Sterling Shepard should give Eli two dynamic WRs at the same time for the first time in years.

  Ryan Tannehill, MIA: Should be considered a high-upside buy at a discount; boasts talented WRs/creative offensive mind in HC Adam Gase.

  Carson Palmer, ARI: Wouldn't be a surprise if he retires before his contract expires in 2018.

  Kirk Cousins, WAS: Leery of a QB that has done "it" for only half a season; possesses the weapons necessary for a repeat of 2015 though.

  Tyrod Taylor, BUF: A long-term commitment as the Bills' starter might shoot his dynasty stock inside the top 12.

Brock Osweiler, HOU: Huge contract ensures job stability; offseason talent boost should help him reach his potential.

  Teddy Bridgewater, MIN: Owners need to take long view here; Teddy still has the goods to a be a long-term, low-end fantasy starter.

  Matt Ryan, ATL: Would not hesitate to buy if he can be acquired at a discount.

  Paxton Lynch, DEN: High ceiling, low floor prospect finds near-ideal landing spot; could be 2018 before owners see true payoff.

Matthew Stafford, DET: Post-Megatron world should lead to more running and less passing.

  Jared Goff, LAR: If only the Rams had a way to acquire a quality WR sometime in the near future…

  Colin Kaepernick, SF: Always huge upside (and risk) for any QB in a Chip Kelly offense. Overcoming recent accuracy woes is another story.

  Jay Cutler, CHI: Good: Kevin White is back. Bad: OC (and noted QB whisperer) Adam Gase is gone.

  Ryan Fitzpatrick, FA: Hard to blame an Ivy League boy for wanting more money; Jets still overwhelming favorite to sign him.

  Cardale Jones, BUF: Owners investing in Jones probably need to sit tight until 2018 before they will see much return.

  Christian Hackenberg, NYJ: Oozes talent but failed miserably after transitioning to the spread at Penn State.

  Jimmy Garoppolo, NE: Likely four-game audition to begin 2016 could be showcase to pique trade interest for starting gig in 2017.

  Jeff Driskel, SF: Should be a wild-card to win starting QB job in San Fran as a rookie.

  Trevone Boykin, SEA: Currently positioned as Russell Wilson's backup in Seattle.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He is also the host of USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive" and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK - Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.