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Regular Season, Updated: 9/3/18

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Legend:   Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk   ADP = Average Draft Position
FF Today Standard Scoring: Review Scoring
 Allen Robinson, CHI (Bye: 5)
13
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 210   DOB: 1993-08-24   Age: 25
College: Penn State   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (29) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015JAC1680 1,400 14 0 0 0 224.0 14.0
2016JAC1673 883 6 0 0 0 124.3 7.8
2017JAC11 17 0 0 0 0 1.7 1.7
2018 (Projected)CHI 72 968 7 0 0 0 138.8  

Outlook: Robinson took the NFL by storm in his second season when he put up a monster 80-1400-14 campaign with Jacksonville. He came crashing down to earth in 2016 seeing a huge drop off in every statistical category. He had a comically bad catch rate on deep balls, and looked to bounce back going in 2017. Well the redemption season never quite got off the ground as Robinson tore his ACL on his first and only reception of the season. Unwilling to pick up his 5th year option, or franchise him, Robinson skipped off to Chicago where his future looks bright once again.

The former Nittany Lion will have had nearly a year to recover from his injury by the time camp starts next month. All reports have his rehab going along perfectly, and the Bears expect him to be a big part of the offense as evidenced by the financial commitment they made to him. Still only 24 despite entering his 5th season in the league, Robinson has age and monster talent on his side. He participated in OTAs this offseason, and looks on track to be the No.1 option in the passing game. Chicago has gutted its receiving core leaving a ton of potential receptions and yards on the table for Robinson to claim. I don't know that he returns to the silly numbers of 2015, but this offense is going to be open and creative, and I think Trubisky makes a leap in his 2nd year. I'm not ready to pin my hopes on him as a WR1, but I think he puts up consistent WR2 numbers with the upside for more.


 Stefon Diggs, MIN (Bye: 10)
14
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 195   DOB: 1993-11-29   Age: 24
College: Maryland   Draft: 2015 Round 5 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015MIN1352 720 4 3 13 0 97.3 7.5
2016MIN1384 903 3 3 10 0 109.3 8.4
2017MIN1464 849 8 8 13 0 134.2 9.6
2018 (Projected)MIN 80 1,040 6 5 16 0 141.6  

Outlook: The Yin to Adam Thielen's Yang, Stefon Diggs was a tale of peaks and valleys during the 2017 season. He began the season looking like a bonafide #1 fantasy receiver with a 22-391-4 line over the first four games. He seemed to mesh very well with newly installed starter Case Keenum, but a 7-week stretch followed the hot start that saw Diggs only snag one more touchdown and fail to register 80 yards. A 3-game touchdown streak salvaged some value in the fantasy playoffs, but as a whole he was down a significant amount of receptions from 2016.

Diggs' 8 touchdowns last season (in only 14 games) were more than he combined in his previous two seasons, and I expect there to be a natural regression in 2018. He'll be breaking in yet another new quarterback this season in Kirk Cousins, whose deep ball skill-set actually matches well with Diggs. I just think too much of this passing game funnels through Thielen, as the offensive scheme won't change much even with a new signal caller at the helm. His role in the offense means he's going to be inconsistent on a weekly basis, as he'll mix WR1 weeks with WR4 weeks. Let's split the difference and say with a slight regression in touchdowns and a slight increase in yards and receptions, Diggs comes in at a low-end WR2.


 T.Y. Hilton, IND (Bye: 9)
15
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 183   DOB: 1989-11-14   Age: 28
College: Florida International   Draft: 2012 Round 3 (29) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015IND1669 1,124 5 0 0 0 142.4 8.9
2016IND1691 1,448 6 0 0 0 180.8 11.3
2017IND1657 966 4 0 0 0 120.6 7.5
2018 (Projected)IND 70 1,085 5 0 0 0 138.5  

Outlook: Hilton was the epitome of a boom/bust player in 2017. With Brissett under center, Hilton was heavily targeted but the limited play under center led to inconsistent output. For the season, Hilton never dipped below 4 targets in a game, but had 10 weeks with fewer than 5 fantasy points. And if you were forced to make a weekly decision, you likely had to roll him out week after week because of his early draft position and most weeks you were let down.

Hilton's five double digit weeks, including two 20-plus point performances, were likely good weeks for his fantasy owners, but he was a net negative with everything considered. Hilton's final ADP was WR12 in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts and at that price, he likely represented a team's WR1 for RB-heavy teams or WR2 for more balanced rosters. In either situation, he immediately became a headache during start/sit decisions. And whether that's due to QB play or his own inefficiencies, he likely sunk many fantasy teams.

But, good news appears to be here! Andrew Luck is back and in 2016, when they last played together, Hilton finished as the WR5 with eight double- digit weeks and only four weeks under 5 fantasy points. Hilton has a current ADP of WR12 in the 3rd round. That price includes the optimism that Luck will return to glory. If he slips into the WR2 range around WR16, then he becomes a valuable pick because of his weekly upside. At the WR12 price, he's a slightly risky pick, but if he's the WR3 for a Zero-RB team, he could be a valuable high upside flex. If he's a WR1 for a RB-heavy team, it's probably too great a risk.


 JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Bye: 7)
16
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1996-11-22   Age: 21
College: Southern California   Draft: 2017 Round 2 (30) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017PIT1358 917 7 0 0 0 133.7 10.3
2018 (Projected)PIT 68 945 7 0 0 0 136.5  

Outlook: I'm sure there were a few season long league champions that had Smith-Schuster on their roster. Likely a draft flier or free agent add, the wonderkid (he just turned 21) from USC was one of fantasy's biggest surprises in 2017. As long as 3rd or 4th on the receiver depth chart to start the year, JuJu quickly ascended into the starting lineup after injuries and suspensions to those above him. He did what was asked of him and more, showing a polished all-around game, and quickly became a big part of the weekly game plan.

Smith-Schuster won't be sneaking up on anyone in 2018, and that includes the other teams in your league. He'll command a WR2 price tag, as he possesses a fantastic floor. He has the ability to stack yardage and touchdowns, and with Brown on the field, will never see a double team. Putting tons of faith in a young player with only a year's worth of production is risky, but I think he's a perfect fit in this offense, and gives the Steelers insurance as he could step up into the No.1 role should Brown go down. This passing offense has long proven able to sustain multiple fantasy stars, and I think the hyphenated one has what it takes to build off his successful rookie campaign. He's exactly the sort of player I look for in a No.2 WR, and that's what you need to be willing to pay.


 Demaryius Thomas, DEN (Bye: 10)
17
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 229   DOB: 1987-12-25   Age: 30
College: Georgia Tech   Draft: 2010 Round 1 (22) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015DEN16105 1,304 6 0 0 0 166.4 10.4
2016DEN1690 1,083 5 0 0 0 138.3 8.6
2017DEN1683 949 5 0 0 0 124.9 7.8
2018 (Projected)DEN 81 1,007 6 0 0 0 136.7  

Outlook: It's been painful to watch Demaryius Thomas suffer through some of the worst quarterback play in the league over the past few seasons and Thomas finally failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards this past season for the first time since 2011, his second season in the league. Thomas finished tied for 10th in the NFL in 2017 with 10 red zone receptions, but he got a bit unlucky as he only finished with five touchdowns on the season. The 30-year-old wideout may not possess the incredible 4.41 speed that made him one of the biggest freak athletes at the position when he came into the league, but Thomas still creates major mismatches, especially in the red zone, with his size and strength.

The bright side for Thomas is that, while his counting stats have been down in recent seasons, he's still seeing a ton of targets and the efficiency of those targets should go up with even semi-competent quarterback play. Thomas now will get to play with Case Keenum, who finished second in the NFL, behind only an all-time NFL record performance by Drew Brees, with a 67.6 completion percentage in 2017. Keenum doesn't specialize in down-field passing but he should be a significant step up from the dumpster fire of a situation that Thomas has been dealing with as of late.

The Broncos did invest an early-second round pick on wide receiver Courtland Sutton who figures to be the heir-apparent for Thomas, but that won't likely come to fruition until at least the 2019 season when Thomas' contract is up for renewal. For now, the veteran should be in line to see at least 125 targets this season which should give him a high enough floor to out-produce his current ADP, which has him in the 20s among wide receivers.

He doesn't have the sexy name anymore but players like Thomas are a great option as a WR2 or even a very low-end WR1 for teams that go running back-heavy early in their drafts, or who select a quarterback or tight end in the first few rounds. His days as a true WR1 for fantasy purposes are probably done, but don't sleep on Thomas in 2018 just because he hasn't been great over the past few seasons.


 Golden Tate, DET (Bye: 6)
18
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 202   DOB: 1988-08-02   Age: 30
College: Notre Dame   Draft: 2010 Round 2 (28) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015DET1690 813 6 6 41 0 121.4 7.6
2016DET1691 1,077 4 10 4 0 132.1 8.3
2017DET1692 1,003 5 5 22 0 132.5 8.3
2018 (Projected)DET 92 1,045 5 4 19 0 136.4  

Outlook: Handicapping the Lions passing game for fantasy purposes has frankly been a dream. The trio of Stafford-Jones-Tate have put up nearly identical stats for the two seasons they've played together. Tate, despite some bumps and bruises played 16 games yet again, and reached the 90-catch plateau for a fourth straight time. He's been so darn consistent that his 8.3 fantasy points per game from 2017 is IDENTICAL to 2016! This offense plays perfectly to his run-after-the-catch skillset. He gets open where he needs to be (he caught 77% of the passes thrown his way), and while he might not find the endzone often, he racks up catches and yards in bunches. It's not really complicated. In PPR leagues he's an easy WR1. In standard leagues he's a plug and forget WR2. Not exciting, but the kind of receiver that helps fantasy teams string wins together and stay afloat during tough times.


 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (Bye: 9)
19
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 218   DOB: 1983-08-31   Age: 35
College: Pittsburgh   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015ARI16109 1,215 9 0 0 0 175.5 11.0
2016ARI16108 1,028 6 1 1 0 138.9 8.7
2017ARI16109 1,156 6 0 0 0 151.6 9.5
2018 (Projected)ARI 92 989 6 0 0 0 134.9  

Outlook: Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who will be 35 years old heading into the 2018 season, is coming off of three straight 100-catch seasons. Fitzgerald has a great connection with fellow veteran quarterback Carson Palmer who started all but one game in 2015 and 2016 alongside Fitzgerald. However, Fitzgerald continued to produce in 2017 even with a dumpster fire of quarterbacks after Palmer went down with an injury. In the final nine games of the 2017 season, with the likes of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert behind center, Fitzgerald saw five games with 8 or more receptions and he never had fewer than three catches in a game. This essentially proved, once again, that Fitzgerald remains essentially quarterback-proof even in his advanced age.

This season should be a better quarterback situation for Fitzgerald at least from a talent perspective. The team is expected to begin with veteran Sam Bradford behind center, who profiles as practically the perfect match for a player like Fitzgerald. Bradford ranked 34th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in percentage of down-field pass attempts in 2015 for the Eagles and was again near the bottom of the league for the Vikings in 2016. This bodes well for Fitzgerald, who has transitioned into one of the leagues' most reliable and dominant slot receivers in his elder years.

There is some concern for Fitzgerald that the new Cardinals offense might not feature him quite as heavily as we've seen in recent seasons under Bruce Arians, but offensive coordinator Mike McCoy is a veteran, who typically molds his offense around getting the ball in the hands of his best playmakers. For the Cardinals, that's Fitzgerald and running back David Johnson. Age is obviously a bit of a worry but Fitz has proven to be one of the most durable wide receivers in the history of the game, having missed just eight games in his 14-year NFL career. He might not present the upside that he once did, but Fitzgerald is an extraordinarily reliable WR2 in fantasy and could make for one of the best value picks given his relatively low ADP.


 Adam Thielen, MIN (Bye: 10)
20
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 195   DOB: 1990-08-22   Age: 28
College: None   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015MIN912 144 0 4 89 0 23.3 2.6
2016MIN1669 967 5 2 15 0 128.2 8.0
2017MIN1691 1,277 4 1 11 0 152.8 9.6
2018 (Projected)MIN 69 945 5 0 0 0 124.5  

Outlook: I really whiffed on my preview of Thielen last off-season. Not many people, including myself, expected him to repeat the breakout he had in 2016. And to be fair, he didn't repeat it at all, he shattered it! His targets, receptions and yards were way up, and while his touchdown totals remain pretty flat for a team's #1 receiver, there's no doubt it's time to take Thielen seriously as a yearly WR1. His 143 targets were tied with A.J. Green for 9th in the NFL and his 1,200 yards were good for 5th overall. He displayed a cool chemistry with Keenum and should make sweet music with Kirk Cousins, who possesses better ball placement and arm strength. Thielen wins with elite hands and body control, and is a master route runner. His high reception totals mean he'll give you weekly consistency, especially in PPR leagues. They didn't give Cousins all that money to mothball this offense, so I can't see why there aren't at least 130 targets that go Thielen's way this season. The low touchdown totals are going to keep his value muted in standard leagues, but he should again provide one of the biggest receiver bargains in fantasy football as a low end WR1 you can snag after all the other big names dry up. After back-to-back impressive seasons fantasy owners are Adam valuing Theilen as low-end WR1.


 Chris Hogan, NE (Bye: 11)
21
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1988-10-24   Age: 29
College: Monmouth   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015BUF1336 450 2 1 4 0 57.4 4.4
2016NE1538 680 4 3 9 0 92.9 6.2
2017NE934 439 5 3 17 0 75.6 8.4
2018 (Projected)NE 67 905 6 0 0 0 126.5  

Outlook: An A/C joint sprain forced Hogan to play in only nine games in the 2017 regular season. In those nine games, Hogan was a valuable fantasy asset, catching 34 passes for 439 yards and five touchdowns. From weeks two through five, Hogan delivered four consecutive double-digit performances, including a two-touchdown game against Houston Week 3.

Injuries are always a concern for Hogan, a six-year veteran who has yet to play a full 16-game season as a member of the Patriots. It should also be noted that although Hogan was a stud for the first quarter of 2017, he has never caught more than 41 passes or five touchdowns in a season.

The departure of Brandin Cooks to Los Angeles and the four-game suspension of Julian Edelman opens the door for Hogan to once again be a difference-making WR in the first quarter of the season. The question will be how long can Hogan last before succumbing to another injury, and will this finally be the season in which Tom Brady comes down to Earth.


 Devin Funchess, CAR (Bye: 4)
22
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 232   DOB: 1994-05-21   Age: 24
College: Michigan   Draft: 2015 Round 2 (9) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015CAR1631 473 5 0 0 0 77.3 4.8
2016CAR1423 371 4 0 0 0 61.1 4.4
2017CAR1663 840 8 0 0 0 132.0 8.3
2018 (Projected)CAR 63 865 6 0 0 0 122.5  

Outlook: Funchess' breakout as the top wide receiver in Carolina felt like a long-time coming despite the fact that 2017 was just his third season. Since arriving from Michigan, Funchess seemed to be the most talented WR on the depth chart and his ceiling remained enticing in spite of his limited usage. And then the team "finally" moved on from Kelvin Benjamin and his value exploded. After scoring more than 10 fantasy points twice in the first nine weeks, he scored in double digits 5 of the final 7 weeks in 2017.

With the incoming first round WR pick (D.J. Moore) and return of 2017's second round selection (Curtis Samuel), there's additional competition for targets that could hinder Funchess' scoring. But even with the extra competition, he is the favorite to lead the team in targets and with his size, he should be plenty of redzone usage. His yardage efficiency (13.3 ypc) doesn't jump off the page which could make him slightly touchdown dependent. His ADP hovers around WR31 and as a WR3, he'll have value for fantasy owners.


 Michael Crabtree, BAL (Bye: 10)
23
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1987-09-14   Age: 31
College: Texas Tech   Draft: 2009 Round 1 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015OAK1685 922 9 0 0 0 146.2 9.1
2016OAK1689 1,003 8 0 0 0 148.3 9.3
2017OAK1358 618 8 0 0 0 109.8 8.4
2018 (Projected)BAL 74 878 6 0 0 0 123.8  

Outlook: Crabtree wouldn't be the first receiver I'd go after during a full on rebuild at the position, but he does give the Ravens a reliable veteran possession receiver that's scored 25 touchdowns over the last three seasons. Injuries and age have relegated Crabtree to be very touchdown dependent (his 10.7 yards per catch average was good for 85th in the NFL last year). He's going to get open using savvy route running and solid technique, but offers nothing in the way of big plays after the catch. There are 164 targets up for grabs after the departure of Maclin and Wallace, so Crabtree should get his fair share. Being the most reliable and productive receiver on the team will certainly give Crabtree a chance to surpass his depressing reception and yardage numbers from last year. Keep in mind that injuries cost Crabtree three games last season, and he'll be an "old" 31 when the season starts. With a slight regression in touchdowns, but an increase in yards and receptions, he could be a low end WR2, but I'd feel infinitely more comfortable picking him as a steady, but unexciting WR3.


 Brandin Cooks, LAR (Bye: 12)
24
Height: 5’9”   Weight: 189   DOB: 1993-09-25   Age: 25
College: Oregon State   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (20) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NO1684 1,140 9 8 18 0 169.8 10.6
2016NO1678 1,173 8 6 30 0 168.3 10.5
2017NE1665 1,082 7 9 40 0 154.2 9.6
2018 (Projected)LAR 54 813 5 12 65 1 123.8  

Outlook: Cooks finds himself in his third home in five seasons as a pro after spending the first four years of his career playing with future Hall of Famers Drew Brees and Tom Brady. He'll now move to Los Angeles where he'll play with third-year quarterback Jared Goff. While Goff certainly took a huge step forward in 2017, it's not a stretch to say that Goff will have a tough time getting the ball to Cooks in the same way that Brees and Brady did.

While he's finished as a WR1 numerous times, Cooks has never surpassed 84 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards or achieved double-digit touchdowns receiving in a season. He has, however, been consistent in his production over the past three seasons, going for between 1,082 yards and 1,173 yards and between seven to nine touchdowns in each of those three seasons.

Cooks enters a crowded Los Angeles pass catching group which saw both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods catch 56-plus catches, along with Todd Gurley who added 64 receptions of his own. Cooks presumably replaces Sammy Watkins, who joined the team late in the offseason and never seemed to get fully acclimated in the offense. Watkins was targeted just 70 times in 15 games, but did lead the team with eight touchdown receptions.

Given his track record and the fact that he'll get to spend an entire training camp with the Rams, Cooks should get a healthier target share than Watkins did, but that still could limited him to fewer than 100 targets. Cooks saw no fewer than 114 targets in each of his past three seasons, playing with elite-level quarterbacks, and he still didn't put up elite fantasy numbers. Cooks is typically being drafted somewhere around 15th-to-20th at his position, so there is some upside here, especially if Woods were to be injured at some point during the season.