Outlook: No one ever tries to set records that will live in infamy, but Diontae Joshnson did just that last season as he set the NFL record for most receptions in a season (86) without scoring a single touchdown. Such a fluky season hasn't been seen in the NFL since 1961, when Hall of Famer Raymond Berry failed to score on 75 receptions. But as miserable as it was for Johnson himself, imagine the weekly agony fantasy owners endured. Unfortunately, I was one of them. Despite monster target numbers, Johnson simply couldn't get much going with the inconsistency at quarterback. He also didn't help himself or his team by continuing to be plagued by inopportune drops. While 2022 will likely go down as a statistical aberration, and Johnson is sure to have some positive regression in the touchdown department, I can envision a world where 2nd year man George Pickens becomes the alpha in this pass offense. Johnson worked the field perfectly under an offense built on the short pass, but those days have come to an end. The addition of Allen Robinson, and the healthy return of 2022 4th round speedster Calvin Austin, means Johnson's path to another 147-target season could be filled with roadblocks.

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Outlook: Opinions of Aiyuk have been all over the map since the 49ers made him a first-round pick in 2020, especially when his much-anticipated breakout in 2021 got off to an extremely rocky start. It's time to move past that. The Arizona State product led the team in targets (114), receptions (78), and yards (1,015) last year while appearing in all 17 games for the second straight year, which was a refreshing development on a team that battled key injuries all season long. His eight touchdowns were also a career high, though he trailed George Kittle (11) in that department.

The 49ers exercised Aiyuk's fifth-year option during the offseason, and the arrow looks to be pointed up entering Year 4. Still, it's worth noting that Aiyuk didn't have huge numbers with Purdy under center, topping 80 yards just twice in the then-rookie's eight starts despite Samuel missing several games with an ankle injury. Although he's arguably a safer choice than his teammate, Aiyuk is better suited to a WR3 role with the hope that he can ascend into WR2 territory.

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Outlook: Can we please get this man a quarterback?

It's been four seasons of the Commanders trotting out who's-who of garbage quarterbacks, yet Terry McLaurin has managed to average over 1,000 receiving yards per season. His 21 touchdowns are a disappointing total, but that's to be expected when he's been practically the only viable downfield threat for the team prior to them drafting Jahan Dotson this past season. Despite a carousel behind center for yet another year, McLaurin managed to set career highs in receiving yards and air yards while tying a career low with just three drops in 2022. What's perhaps most impressive is that McLaurin had some of his best games when being matched up against some of the league's best cornerbacks, including Stephon Gilmore, Darius Slay, and Jaire Alexander.

It would be great if we could somehow tell the story that Washington's quarterback situation looks like it's in for a significant improvement, but that's just not likely to happen with Sam Howell behind center. Howell does, however, add a bit of mobility and might be able to breathe some life into this offense as a whole. Additionally, a glance at his college highlight reel indicates that he throws a fairly accurate deep ball which could benefit McLaurin in particular.

Another fantasy season in the WR2 range looks like the most likely outcome for McLaurin, so don't expect some huge breakout season for the fifth-year wideout, but he's a safe player who should provide relatively consistent numbers even with mediocre quarterback play.

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Outlook: Godwin has been a solid WR2 the last two seasons with Tom Brady including ranking as the WR18 with 224.8 fantasy points a year ago. He topped 100 catches for the first time in his career on 142 targets (10th among WRs). The obvious issue this season with Godwin and Mike Evans is the downgrade at quarterback from Brady to Baker Mayfield and perhaps Kyle Trask later in the season. The risk of a stagnant offense in 2023 is showing in Godwin's ADP which currently sits on the WR2/3 border in the WR25 range (PPR leagues). Godwin's youth - 27 years-old and right in the middle of his prime - is giving him the edge over his running mate Evans (30) among fantasy drafters. He should be the more consistent of the two standout Bucs' receivers as he operates in the short to intermediate areas of the field making him a safe bet in PPR leagues, especially if you can snag him a few picks after his ADP.

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Outlook: Coming into the NFL Pickens was compared to fellow Bulldog A.J. Green, and boy were those comps accurate. Raw, but simply dazzling at times with elite body control and athleticism, Pickens flashed massive potential after a slow start to the season, and displayed clear chemistry with fellow rookie Kenny Pickett. Pickens was 15th amongst receivers with 17 receptions of 20+ yards, and an impressive 73% of his receptions went for 1st downs. Great numbers especially for a rookie who only made 12 career collegiate starts. The pair were dynamic at times, and have the opportunity to grow into the next young QB-WR combo. If Pickens can continue to fine-tune his route running, and scheme discipline, he has the athletic talent to be a WR1. How quickly he and Pickett develop is going to be key, but I love him as a high upside WR3 in standard leagues who has league winning potential.

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Outlook: It's safe to say that Christian Kirk's contract with the Jaguars in 2022 raised the eyebrows of the majority of the NFL community. Someone who was never really a WR1 received a contract that included a whopping $37 million guaranteed. However, Kirk proved his worth as he finished with career highs in receptions (84), yards (1,108), touchdowns (8) and was 11th among wide receivers in fantasy points.

With Calvin Ridley joining the mix, it's currently uncertain who will be the Jaguars' most-targeted receiver, but if we compare the last few years (instead of each of Ridley and Kirk's last seasons), the former Falcon has the edge. Kirk does have familiarity with Doug Pederson's system which could give him an advantage. As we get into August, I'd expect the two top-30 receivers to be drafted in the mid-to-low WR2 range as fantasy owners weigh Kirk's career year in 2022 and Trevor's love for spreading the ball around.

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Outlook: When the Cardinals acquired Brown from Baltimore, he was supposed to join up with DeAndre Hopkins to form a lethal one-two punch for the Cardinals. Due to injuries and suspension, that duo played in four games together. Now, with Hopkins released, Brown will assume the mantle of WR1 that he wore with the Ravens. The undersized wideout has excellent speed and has been mostly durable, missing just three games over his first three seasons combined before bowing out for five weeks in 2022.

His production has been respectable, but not great, averaging 66 receptions, 768 yards, and 6 TDs since being drafted 25th overall back in 2019. There's little doubt he's capable of more, given he spent three years in Baltimore's run-heavy attack before last year's injury-shortened effort. Whether we'll get to see that in 2023 is debatable, though, with McCoy in line to potentially start the majority of the games. That duo played just one full game together last year, and Brown managed a paltry 4-34-0 line.

With no firm return date on Murray, and no established option to take coverage off Brown, you should view the fifth-year pro as a midrange WR3 with modest upside.

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Outlook: Long a favorite of Wilson on deep shots, Lockett seemed like a prime candidate for serious statistical regression in 2022. Instead, the veteran made it four straight seasons with 100-plus targets (117), 70-plus receptions (84), 1,000-plus yards (1,033), and 8 or more TDs (9). His big plays did dip, from 22 catches of 20 or more yards in 2021 to 14 last year, but he was arguably more consistent week to week compared to other recent seasons, most notably 2020 when he had 390 yards and 8 TDs in three games and just 664 yards and 2 TDs over the other 13.

Durability has long been one of Lockett's attributes, and he once again showed the ability to play through pain last year, missing just one game after undergoing surgery on his finger. Through eight seasons, the veteran has been inactive just three times. While not a huge target, Lockett has always found ways to make himself available for the catch, which bodes well for him as he enters his age-31 season. There's not a lot of upside here, but Lockett should offer reliable WR3 value.

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Outlook: Make it nine-straight seasons with at least 1000 receiving yards for Evans including last season when he posted 77 receptions for 1,124 yards and six touchdowns. Evans had 27 fewer receptions than Godwin, but over 100 more yards and three more touchdowns as he's yards per reception (14.6) dwarfed Godwin's (9.8).

Evans turns 30-years-old on Aug. 21, hitting the general age of decline. His streak of consistency will need to overcome the age curve and the quarterback downgrade from Tom Brady. Is it possible? Mayfield has excelled with the deep ball on occasion his career, using the play-action pass, but it's safe to wonder if this is the season Evans' fantasy numbers take a slight dip. The fantasy community thinks so, as Evans is currently going a few picks later than Godwin in the WR28 range. Evans is more volatile than Godwin given the deep targets which is something to keep in mind as you build out your WR room. He's an uncomfortable selection in the mid-rounds given the uncertain nature of the Bucs offense in 2023.

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Outlook: Touchdown totals are oftentimes fluky, but it's hard not to look at 2022 rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson's seven touchdowns in 12 games and dream about what a healthy full-season total might look like. Dotson somehow managed to catch a touchdown on one out of every five receptions - a percentage that will almost certainly be unsustainable going forward - but one that makes him an intriguing compliment to teammate Terry McLaurin.

While McLaurin has been a perennial 1000-yard receiver as a pro, he is yet to score more than seven touchdowns in any of his four professional seasons. He's a downfield playmaker with impressive hands, but his usage in the red zone simply hasn't been great even when you account for the bad quarterback play he's had to deal with. Dotson, however, caught 12 touchdowns as a senior at Penn State, on a team that threw for just 25 total touchdowns on the year. Then as an NFL rookie, he managed to score seven touchdowns in just 12 games, on a team that threw for just 24 total touchdowns. Needless to say, he's proven himself to be red zone weapon both at the collegiate and professional level, so the upside is there for him to become a double-digit touchdown scorer if he has decent quarterback play.

Unfortunately, he's dealing with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett, so the true breakout year for Dotson isn't likely to happen here in 2023, but his price also doesn't necessitate a breakout to pay dividends. If he can simply stay healthy and score at even half of the rate he did in 2022, Dotson will be a value in the middle rounds in fantasy drafts, particularly in best ball formats where you don't have to try to guess the weeks that he gets into the end zone.

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Outlook: Speaking of young players who had a great 2021, but fell below standards in 2022, Michael Pittman Jr. is hoping to return to his best form in 2023. The 26-year-old went from 16th (148.6) in fantasy points in 2021 to 27th (119.5) in 2022. The Colts went through a trio of quarterbacks and Pittman set career highs in targets (141) and receptions (99) in 2022, but he averaged just 9.3 yards per catch compared to his 12.3 the year prior. He struggled to get loose in the open field as the Colts focused on the short-to-intermediate passing game.

The addition of Steichen and Anthony Richardson should hopefully change these issues as the rookie QB has arguably the strongest arm in the class and the new head coach developed one of the best receiving duos in the NFL last season in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Pittman has shown in the past that he's capable of running all the routes. With the help of Richardson and Steichen, he can return to form and finish the season as a top-25 receiver in the low-end WR2 range or as a high-end FLEX option.

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Outlook: The 2021 playoff breakout from Gabe Davis had some fantasy managers making absolutely wild projections heading into this past season. Davis had never reached even 600 yards receiving in a regular season throughout his first two years, but that magical 2021 playoff run which saw him catch five touchdowns in two games, had people relying on him to be their WR3 or even WR2 for fantasy in 2022. The season started off hot, with Davis scoring a touchdown in Week 1, before scoring three more times prior to Week 6. But then things came crashing down, with the big play wideout failing to reach 100 yards in any game and scoring just three total touchdowns in his final 10 regular season contests. In short, he was essentially unusable for fantasy purposes following his short run of fantasy excellence.

Now heading into his fourth season, Davis again has some fantasy managers salivating at the idea of a breakout. In fairness to them, he did have his best season yet, producing career highs in receptions (48) and yards (836) while tying a career-high with seven touchdowns. The Bills didn't really add any significant threats to his role and team management has reiterated its belief in Davis throughout the offseason. Still, his streaky nature makes him an extraordinarily difficult player to project on a weekly basis, so be prepared to be frustrated if you're relying on him.

The big positive here is that Davis is still offering essentially the exact same upside in 2023 that he did in 2022, just at a significantly reduced cost. He's going two, three, or even four rounds later (depending on your service) than he was a season ago and he should still have a significant role in the Buffalo offense. Whether that pans out to be a more consistent fantasy option remains to be seen, but the price tag makes him a lot more palatable this year than he was in 2022.

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